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Conflict Trends, Issue 1 (2015)

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Conflict Trends, Issue 1 (2015) ISSUE 1, 2015 NORTH AFRICA The Thinker ACCORD is Ranked among Top Think Tanks in the World For the fi fth consecutive year, ACCORD has been recognised by the Global Go To Think Tank Index as one of the top-100 think tanks in the world. The 2014 Global Go To Think Tank Report was produced by the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) at the University of Pennsylvania, USA. ACCORD is proud to have been ranked out of over 6 600 think tanks globally, of which 467 are based in sub-Saharan Africa, in the following sub-categories: • 32nd in the category ‘Top Think Tanks Worldwide (Non-US)’ (p. 62) and is the highest ranked African institution in this category • 63rd in the category 'Top Think Tanks Worldwide (US and Non-US) (p. 66) • 6th in the category 'Top Think Tanks in Sub-Saharan Africa' (p. 69) • 23rd in the category 'Best Managed Think Tanks' (p. 118) • 31st in the category 'Best Use of Social Networks' (p. 134). Global Distribution of Think Tanks by Region The 2014 GlobalThe 2014 Think Go Report Tank To 27.53% These rankings pay testament to ACCORD’s Knowledge Production, Interventions and Training 30.05% departments, which strive to produce both 16.71% experientially-based and academically rigorous knowledge, derived from our 23 years in the 7.87% confl ict resolution fi eld, relevant to practitioners, governments, civil society and organisations 10.18% within Africa and throughout the world. 7.06% Now in its eighth year, the Global Go To Think 0.59% Tank Index has become an authoritative resource for individuals and institutions worldwide. ACCORD would like to congratulate its fellow African institutions and organisations for their recognition by the Index. It is an honour for Number of Think Tanks in the World in 2014 ACCORD, its Board of Trustees, and its staff to 2014 Global Think Tank Total = 6 618 receive these rankings for a fi fth year running. More information about the report’s Asia Europe North America Sub-Saharan Africa methodology and fi ndings can be found in the 1106 674 1822 521 1989 467 fi nal report: <http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent. Central & Middle East & 39 South America North Africa Oceania cgi?article=1008&context=think_tanks>. African solutions for African challenges CONTENTS EDITORIAL 2 by Vasu Gounden FEATURES 3 Egypt in the Aftermath of the Arab Spring: What Lies Ahead? by Gawdat Bahgat 10 The Democratic Transition in Tunisia: A Success Story in the Making by Yahia H. Zoubir 18 The 2011 Libyan Crisis: Would the African Solution have been Preferred? by Dia Tumkezee Kedze FACT FILE 25 The Arab Spring in Numbers FEATURES 28 Algeria and Morocco and the Popular Uprising in North Africa: Will the Exceptions Last? by Azzedine Layachi 36 Western Sahara Since the Arab Spring: Any Hope for Change? by Nisrine Amel Lamamra 44 Security in North Africa: Addressing New and Old Concerns in Light of the Arab Revolts by Mikael Eriksson 50 Four Years After the Fall of Gaddafi: The Role of the International Community in Stabilising a Fractured Libya by Candice Moore Cover photo credit: Oxfam Novib (Creative Commons). Protesters in Cairo’s Tahrir Square denounce military trials of civilians in a gathering on 30 September 2011. conflict trends I 1 EDITORIAL BY VASU GOUNDEN Few could have predicted that the self-immolation of a in North Africa regalvanised the medium and culture of Tunisian fruit vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, on 17 December protest politics throughout the world. Second, Western 2010, would become the spark to an unprecedented chain of countries’ humanitarian intervention in Libya, which rapidly events; an act responsible for recalibrating the dynamics of succumbed to ‘mission creep’, continues to be examined state and society in North Africa and beyond. as both a short-term cause and accelerator of transnational The massive and far-reaching popular protests that radicalisation and insurgency throughout the African followed this singular act spread across the North African Sahel region. And third, the developments emerging from countries of Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, while also affecting the Arab Spring movements have now stimulated global countries in the Middle East and Arabian Peninsula. debates on social and political transitions, especially in These protests, which materialised from each country’s societies characterised by structural economic inequalities, respective indifference towards deep-seated socio-economic frequent popular uprisings and rapidly emerging inequalities and political grievances, found expression, transnational security threats. common purpose and momentum in the near-simultaneous This Special Issue of Conflict Trends assesses these actions and movement of millions of people across the evolving dynamics and addresses a number of important region. Within weeks, the popular protests precipitated the questions concerning the fourth anniversary of the Arab downfall of deeply entrenched political regimes in Egypt and Spring in North Africa. Have the uprisings’ root causes Tunisia, and ignited a destabilising civil conflict in Libya. been addressed and sufficiently resolved? How would Early 2015 marks the fourth-year anniversary of the Arab different stakeholders and communities within each country protests. How do we assess the impacts and consequences assess developments over the past four years – would of the movements that have now collectively become they consider themselves better off? What new obstacles known as the ‘Arab Spring’? now confront the full realisation of their aspirations? What Since 2011, Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have increasingly lessons can we draw in managing shifts from autocracy to oscillated along the spectrum of stability and instability, democracy? Are other countries in North Africa vulnerable but these three countries now appear on distinct and to future social unrest and, if so, what are some of the diverging paths. While Tunisia’s November 2014 elections conditions that would make these developments more successfully concluded a highly contested but stable likely? How have the events in North Africa influenced national dialogue process and constitutional transition, the the rest of the African continent, as well as the rest of breakdown of Libya’s security environment and governance the world? And finally, what does the future hold for this institutions continues to threaten the long-term social and important region? economic welfare of its citizens. Egypt’s transition process Inclusive dialogue and explicit commitments to socio- from former President Mohamed Morsi to current President economic equality must be at the heart of societal changes Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi underscores how the country remains across the North African region. While the world has a hotly contested space for ideas, policies and visions of already drawn many lessons from the Arab Spring, there the future. Even as this evolves, the three North African is even more to be learned from these countries, including countries largely unaffected by the Arab Spring – Algeria, how they navigate the long-term challenges characteristic Mauritania and Morocco – must each confront emerging of such transitions and transformations. challenges and threats within both the domestic and regional spheres. Within the broader geopolitical arena, the impacts of Vasu Gounden is the Founder and Executive Director the Arab Spring continue to reverberate. First, the uprisings of ACCORD. 2 I conflict trends EGYPT IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE ARAB SPRING: WHAT LIES AHEAD? BY GAWDAT BAHGAT GALLO IMAGES/REUTERS 26° 30° 34° 38° M E D S E A EGYPT llum I T E R E A N regional and international systems. Sā R A N s A Sidi- - Barrani- - ISRAEL EGYPT Sidi- - 'Umar Marsá Damyat- Matruh- 11 1 Port Said Alexandria 12 10 In the 1950s and 1960s, President Khalīj Al Libyan Plateau - - 'Arab 3 - Sidi 'Abd 2 - - - Al 'Arish LIBYA Bi'r Al Qatranī- ar Rahman- 4 9 Al Isma'iliyyah 5 Al 'Alamayn SHAMĀL SĪNĀ' Gamal Abdel Nasser pioneered MATRŪH 6 8 30 7 30 ° h JORDAN - a ° Bi'r Nahid b KEY TO GOVERNORATES Al Jizah a Qattara Cairo q IN NILE DELTA SuezA A N ' - Qarah Depression S - l Arab nationalism and championed i i A - - l AL FAYYŪM l S i Governorate Capital i e e U d d - a - a 1 AD DAQAHLĪYAH Al Mansurah Siwah W Taba W - - - A W 2 AL BUHAYRAH Damanhur Wahat Sīwah - Y G - - Al Fayyum S a 3 AL GHARBIYAH Tanta u JANŪB SĪNĀ' b 'Ayn Tabaghbugh - l a the non-aligned movement. His 4 AL ISKANDARIYYAH Al Iskandariyyah BANI SUWAYF - f Bani q o A (Alexandria) f f AL JIZAH Suwayf E AL ISMĀ'ĪLĪYYAH - -- o 5 Al Isma'iliyyah S f - Ra's l SAUDI AL MNŪFĪYAH AL MINYĀ u u 6 Shibin Al Kawm - - - e - - Al Bawiti Gharib At Tur G 7 AL QAHIRAH Al Qahirah W a z successor, President Anwar Al-Sadat, - - G - ādi (Cairo) Al Wahat Al Minya aţ-Ţarfah ARABIA h AL QALYŪBĪYAH - s 8 Banha Al Bahriyyah i 9 ASH SHARQĪYAH Az Zaqaziq- - r AL BAHR AL AHMAR Ra's d t Muhammad 10 BŪR SA'ĪD Bur- Sa'id- - was the first Arab leader to recognise and make peace with 'Ayn Dallah A (Port Said) W e b l Asy ţi Al Ghardaqah 11 DUMYĀT Dumyat- W. A ū ā d - - - u Qasr Al Farafrah - ī KAFR ASH SHAYKH Wahat ASYŪT 12 Kafr ash Shaykh - Q r Asyut - i Al Farafrah M n - - ā n Bur Safajah Israel. The impacts of toppling President Hosni Mubarak, the L u - - W e s t e r n h - - SUHAJ a Suhaj - 26 Qina ° i r Al Qusayr 26 AL WĀDĪ AL JADĪD r - - ° i R rise and fall of the Muslim Brotherhood and the ascendancy Naj 'Hammadi D b k QINĀ W Al Qasr ād Ar Rashdah- ī Zay E National capital Al Wahat- - Armant Luxor edūn y - D Governorate capital ad Dakhlah- Mut - Al Kharjah Isna- s Marsá 'Alam of President Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi are yet to be assessed.
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