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Managing the and The role of governments, private sector and technology

PwC’s Global Crisis Centre is an international centre of excellence made up of crisis specialists. We convene the best industry and technical expertise from across PwC’s worldwide network to help organisations confront crisis with confidence.

Global Crisis Centre “We want to ensure that refugee rights are upheld everywhere and that they have access to shelter, food and healthcare. This must continue. But we also want to create opportunities for education and livelihoods. This is what want desperately.” Filippo Grandi, (UN) High Commissioner for Refugees, February 2016

Acknowledgment: This paper was written in collaboration with Eurasia Group www.eurasiagroup.net and a PwC working group of professionals currently assisting governments and the private sector on global refugee and migrant crisis issues.

Global Crisis Centre Contents

Executive summary 2 Introduction 3 What drives the movement of people globally? 8 International cooperation and considerations for governments 10 Economic impacts and the role of business 14 The role of technology and digital innovation 19 Future trends and recommendations 24 Concluding remarks 31 Contacts 32 References 33

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 1 Executive summary

Macro vulnerabilities and Though much of the current refugee and challenges faced by governments protracted political instability in exodus from the Syrian conflict has and private sector actors alike in various parts of the world, impacted the Middle Eastern and Central addressing this crisis, and we discuss including the and Asian neighbour states, including opportunities for collaboration as well as certain regions of Africa and Asia , and , global the key role technology can play. have given way to a growing attention and media has been focused on migrant crisis that is increasingly , where political institutions are In the final sections of this paper, we present future trends and scenarios as reverberating through the politics, experiencing substantial pressure and strain. However the importance of well as recommendations. We urge economies and societies globally, assessing impacts and developing consideration of the analyses presented, particularly in Europe. As the solutions for unmanaged migration and because left unaddressed, or if addressed number of refugees globally refugee issues by governments and the unilaterally rather than in parallel, the continues to rise, even though an private sector is a global challenge, and a ongoing refugee and migrant crisis has immediate resolution seems global opportunity. the power to distort the politics of unlikely in the near future, it is nations, presenting significant long-term crucial for governments, This paper explores the definitions, risks to the macro business environment multilateral organisations, public causes and challenges of migration, with and, in the case of Europe, the single and private sectors to contribute an emphasis on forced and unmanaged market. In this context, public and towards finding solutions. migration. We also take a closer look at private sectors have a critical role to play the 'push' and 'pull' factors that influence and can serve as leaders in developing refugee and unmanaged migration flows, solutions for enhancing the security and both in the Middle East and wellbeing of nations and their and also in other global hotspots. In this inhabitants, whilst encouraging a paper, we outline the roles, opportunities humanitarian response to the crisis.

2 Global Crisis Centre Introduction

map 1 populations of concern to unhcr by category | end-2015

Globally, onerefugees, in every including 122 persons human beings Figure 1: Global trends – increase in worldwide displacement is now eitherin a refugee-likea refugee, situation internally displaced or seeking asylum. This Turkey represents an increase of over a third in lebanon the last five years (see Figure 1).1

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR, or Islamic rep. The UN Refugee Agency), there are of currently 59.5 million people across the world who have been displaced, 19.5 million of these are refugees.2 In Europe alone, more than 1,011,700 migrants arrived by sea in 2015 and, almost 34,900 arrived by land, according to estimates by the International asylum-seekers (pending cases) 3 Organisation for Migration (IOM). sweden

Germany Source: UNHCR 18 June 2015 Upon reflection, many in Europe will However, the refugee and migrant united states 4 Turkey view 2015of as amer theica year of the migrant situation and the subsequent issues it crisis. This is largely owing to rising brings, are a global concern, not just a volatility and political instability in the European one (see Figure 2). Middle East and Africa, and the associated surge in migration to Europe.

Figure 2: Refugees,map 1 p oincludingpulations persons of concern in a torefugee-like unhcr by situation category | end-2015

refugees, including persons south africa in a refugee-like situation

Idps protected/assisted by unhcr, Turkey including persons in an Idp-like situation lebanon syrian arab republic

Iraq

pakistan Islamic rep. of Iran ethiopia

number of persons 5,000,000

1,000,000 100,000 A country is listed if it features among the top-5 per population group. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

10 UNHCRa sGlobalylum-seekers Trends 2015 (pending cases) sweden

Germany 1 http://www.unhcr.org/558193896.html

2 These numbersunited shavetates cumulated over a number of years. The figures, unless explicitlyTurkey stated, do not only reflect 2015 numbers. of america 3 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911 4 In line with the BBC, we use the term ‘migrant’ to refer to all people who are on the move who have yet to complete the legal process of claiming asylum. As per the BBC’s definition this group includes people fleeing torn countries such as , who are likely to be granted refugee status, as well as people who are seeking jobs and better lives, who governments are likely to rule are economic migrants.

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 3

south africa

Idps protected/assisted by unhcr, including persons in an Idp-like situation

syrian arab republic

Iraq

yemen colombia

sudan

number of persons 5,000,000

1,000,000 100,000 A country is listed if it features among the top-5 per population group. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

10 UNHCR Global Trends 2015 The causes of the Middle East (Syria, Iraq, and Yemen); unemployment and , famine one in Europe () and three in Asia triggered by , and mass movement of (Kyrgyzstan, and in several areas of systematic discrimination are all migrants to Europe and Pakistan). Since early 2011, motivators for people to move.11 In fact, the main reason for the acceleration has the UNHCR reports that in the first five The number of migrants attempting been the war in Syria which is now the months of 2016, more than 39,000 passage to Europe in 2015 was largely single largest driver of displacement.10 Afghans also made the journey across unprecedented. According to the the Mediterranean to (UNHCR UNHCR, Germany has accepted the However, it is important to note that war Questionnaire findings for Afghans in greatest number of migrants in Europe is not the only driver for migration. Greece, May 2016). This shows that in absolute terms, with an estimated Other drivers such as political instability people are still traveling long distances 964,574 new migrants in 20155. Of this, or in the home country, high as a result of persistent unrest approximately 484,000 of the migrants 6. came from Syria The UK has made a Figure 3: Asylum claims in Europe 2015 commitment to accept 20,000 Syrian refugees from UNHCR camps over the next five years.7 On a per capita basis, however, Sweden ranks among the most accepting countries, having taken in roughly 190,000 refugees, or 2 percent of the population.8 Figure 3 shows disproportionate burden sharing among the (EU) member states. According to the UNHCR’s annual Global Trends Report: World at War (June 2015)9, in the past five years, at least 15 conflicts have re-erupted or re-ignited (eight in Africa: Côte d’Ivoire, Central African Republic, , , north-eastern , Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan and this year in Burundi); three in the

Understanding the driver is key to categorising a migrant as either a refugee or and influences the decision as to whether an individual will be afforded protection under the 1951 Refugee Convention

Source: Eurostat

5 http://qz.com/567469/germany-is-taking-in-more-refugees-in-2015-than-the-us-has-in-the-past-10-years/ 6 http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article149700433/965-000-Fluechtlinge-bis-Ende-November-in-Deutschland.html 7 http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn06805.pdf 8 http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/10/the-death-of-the-most-generous-nation-on-earth-sweden-syria-refugee-europe/ 9 http://unhcr.org/556725e69.html#_ga=1.126912907.702443651.1455545632 10 http://www.unhcr.org/558193896.html 11 http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/europe-migration-crisis-context-why-now-and-what-next

4 Global Crisis Centre Understanding the drivers of migration accordance with its values” whilst is key to categorising a migrant as either putting forward “joint proposals to a refugee or economic migrant and organise the reception of refugees and a influences the decision as to whether an fair distribution in Europe” as well as individual will be afforded protection “converging standards to strengthen the under the 1951 Refugee Convention.12 European asylum system.”14

However, following through on this Shifting dynamics in commitment was made difficult by the finding a resolution unprecedented number of migrants arriving in Europe, combined with the The image of Aylan Kurdi13: a young boy inability of existing asylum systems to whose body washed up on the shores of absorb such high volumes. For example, Turkey became the face of the migrant the of 6 June 2013 crisis in Europe and was a stark reminder outlines the responsibilities for member to the world of the growing humanitarian states in evaluating and determining the crisis prompted by civil unrest, poverty, status of asylum applications. This has famine and war. The image evoked a now been challenged by overwhelmed sense of outrage at the perils of migrants capacity in countries such as Greece making the dangerous crossing to and Germany. Europe and galvanised public opinion about the migrant crisis. In addition, it The migrant crisis and its related increased the international pressure on debates were further exacerbated by the European governments to find a solution terror attacks in in November 2015 respecting international laws and the which shifted public focus to protecting rights of migrants, whilst ensuring the Europe from further terror targets and safety and security of European borders. ensuring that sufficient security checks German Chancellor Angela Merkel and were built in both at external borders French President Francois Hollande and into the processes for dealing with issued a joint statement subsequent to asylum claims. Aylan’s death stating that “the European Union must act decisively and in

12 http://www.unhcr.org/uk/1951-refugee-convention.html 13 Aylan Kurdi was a 3 year old Syrian child who drowned trying to cross the Mediterranean. Full story can be found on http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/ europe/aylan-kurdi-s-story-how-a-small-syrian-child-came-to-be-washed-up-on-a-beach-in-turkey-10484588.html 14 http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CN-w2XZWoAA5c4U.png

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 5 The direct result of this was the Figure 4: The challenges Europe faces are complex introduction of temporary border controls by some member states including , Germany, Austria, Slovenia, Sweden, Hungary, Norway15 and Denmark, calling the future of the 1 Successfully caring for and resettling migrants Schengen Agreement (which stipulates a zone of twenty-six European countries abolishing their internal borders and having a common visa policy, thus allowing for the unrestricted movement Differentiating between genuine asylum claims and of people, goods, services and capital) 2 economic migrants into question.16 The terror attack in Belgium in March 2016 and subsequent attacks in France and Germany has led to further feelings of insecurity and instability within Europe, and the 3 Integrating new migrant arrivals into society roadmap to Schengen (proposed by the European Commission), which will require the opening of all internal borders within the EU by the end of Assessing the infrastructure and ability of the accepting December 2016, continues to be queried.17 4 countries to deal with the number of refugees and migrants The European Commission has emphasised that the stabilisation of the Schengen system is critical for the protection of the free movement principle and for ensuring Securing funding for humanitarian aid and assistance that there is no long-term economic 5 provided upon arrival detriment to the EU economy as a result of re-establishment of border controls. For example, 1.7 million workers in the EU cross a border every day to go to Protecting borders and ensuring the security of nationals work. The re-introduction of border 6 in the context of unmanaged migration and increasing controls would cost commuters and threats from terrorism other travellers between Euros 1.3 and 5.2 billion in time lost (per annum).18 Developing innovative and advanced technology to help As Europe collectively struggles to 7 respond more quickly and effectively to the situation on find a unified solution to the migrant the ground, in real time crisis, challenges continue to mount (see Figure 4) and there are pressures on making the terms of existing relative regulations work, due to some member Responding to the in a way that preserves states acting unilaterally. 8 the values and legitimacy of the EC and its member states

15 Norway is not a member of the EU but is part of the Schengen Agreement 16 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34826438 17 http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/docs/communication-back-to-schengen-roadmap_en.pdf 18 http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/docs/communication-back-to-schengen-roadmap_en.pdf

6 Global Crisis Centre Others, such as Germany, initially subscribed to an open door policy for migrants, though this decision has been criticised for acting as a migration pull factor. Divisions between member states have deepened, despite the threat of the EU losing credibility as a political and economic leader. The EU-Turkey Agreement, however, though not without its critics, was hailed as a major milestone for the EU in presenting a coherent, strategic response to the migrant crisis.

Future projections: understanding and evaluating the crisis In order to understand the migrant crisis and work towards finding a common solution, it is important to understand the reasons for the largest migration to Europe since the Second World War. In the following sections, we assess and evaluate the response of European governments and key stakeholders, including the difficulties that prevent the early resolution of the crisis.

We also analyse the push and pull factors and the impact (both positive and negative) that the migrant crisis will have from the perspective of governments (national and local), the public, and companies operating global businesses within Europe and elsewhere. This is a dynamic and fluid situation and governments and business need to adapt accordingly.

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 7 What drives the movement of people globally?

Migration is not a new Migration can be differentiated as and conflicts, which can lead to seeking phenomenon. History demonstrates managed and unmanaged, voluntary or asylum in other countries. However it that migration has existed for forced. This paper will focus primarily can also be influenced by pull factors. centuries as trade relations, the on forced and unmanaged migration expansion of empires, , and the challenges they pose to Many of these risks and opportunities and political turmoil government policies, together with the are in some way economic, but may have triggered human movement risks and opportunities they create for overlap with issues of humanitarian private sector actors.19 concern, such as violence, war, disease, within regions, countries and resource scarcity and the right to re-join beyond. Migration is a global Managed migration refers to relocation to families and communities. Migration phenomenon that pertains to a a host country in a planned manner such can be facilitated or discouraged by broader scope of the population as through quotas or visas. policy, and policy often attempts to than what the media typically classify migration. This makes the refer to as ‘migrants’. Unmanaged migration refers to migration definition of ‘migrant,’ ‘refugee’ or that the host country has not planned or ‘’ difficult to objectively accounted for. determine. The following section highlights some of the key challenges Voluntary migration means relocation with labelling people who migrate, and according to personal desires. offers a broader understanding of the push and pull factors that drive global Forced migration is driven by push migratory flows. factors, namely, risks, social pressures

19 Overseas Development Institute: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/9913.pdf

8 Global Crisis Centre trafficking) simply to continue along Problems with labels Governments that are net migrant receivers sometimes engage in some their journey. Consequently, forced A number of terms are used to form of international policy to reduce migration sustains black markets, describe those who migrate: migrant, push factors, usually by funding underground economies and criminal refugee, asylum seeker, etc. While multilateral organisations within the networks given its reliance on using some terms such as refugee and UN or NGOs that focus on mitigating the non-standard means of earning a living asylum seeker have a basis in legal effects of war or conflicts, famine, or crossing borders. Children, youth and frameworks/agreements others do drought or human rights abuses. For women remain particularly vulnerable, not. However, they all have cultural example, UNHCR provides relief to since they might not enjoy legal and political associations that can be conflict zones such as Syria, but also in protection or access to support networks just as impactful as legal definitions. neighbouring countries such as Lebanon that would mitigate the risks of While ‘migrant’ is arguably the or Jordan in order to help those exploitation. Traumas associated with broadest term and includes refugees countries contain and care for refugee migration may also pose challenges to and asylum seekers, Non- populations. Push factors can also occur eventual settlement in a country, and Governmental Organisations (NGOs) in places where migrants have relocated, may require additional services such as have criticised the media for using where issues such as poor working counselling to integrate successfully. ‘migrant’ as a derogatory term that opportunities and uncertain legal status plays into the hands of anti- push them to continue their journey on politics. Moreover, the Pull factors to Europe and elsewhere. label ‘economic migrant’ is used – for Pull factors are incentives for migrants example, in the EU – to assert that a There is also increasing evidence that to journey to a certain place and include migrant has no humanitarian basis for push factors have complex and working opportunities, benefits, ease of claiming asylum and eventual overlapping relationships. For example, travel, the possibility of permanent settlement, instead justifying many EU countries attempt to settlement and the opportunity to expulsion because the basis for the differentiate ‘economic migrants’ from reconnect with family and community individual’s migration is rooted in the asylum seekers, although conflict and networks. Pull factors are often created desire to improve their standard of economic deterioration are often linked inadvertently by governments. However, living from an economic perspective. in ways that do not always explicitly those governments also often directly feature human rights violations. More address and try to minimise pull factors, Definitions of a refugee or asylum recently, climate change has been namely by tightening border controls, seeker can also differ according to identified as a broad force behind other cutting benefits, restricting settlement government and policy acceptance/ migratory push factors and this is likely opportunities and working rights. interpretation. Even within the EU, to increase the numbers of migrants in member states have not fully the years ahead. In fact, the United In the past year, EU countries that had harmonised their lists of ‘safe States National Academy of Sciences has attracted the most migrants have made countries,” or countries that are identified the extended drought in Syria an effort to reduce pull factors, such as deemed compliant with the 1951 between 2007 and 2010, which was cuts to benefits in Germany, quotas on Refugee Convention, and the policy exacerbated by climate change, as one of migrant numbers in Austria and actions which those lists entail. the factors that led to the Syrian conflict.20 tightened border controls in Sweden.

Push factors Humanitarian issues play a unique role Despite the EU’s commitments to human in the dynamics of forced migration as and refugee rights, numerous Central Push factors include the numerous both push factors and also consequences and Eastern European countries have reasons why migrants might be of push factors. Involuntary migrants built walls and tightened border controls incentivised to leave their homes, such are arguably some of the most in an effort to prevent or divert migration. as humanitarian concerns (including vulnerable individuals. Forced In some countries, bureaucratic inertia conflicts), overpopulation and migration is often triggered by in processing asylum requests and the destruction of the local environment, humanitarian concerns, but these detention-like condition of holding wage stagnation, or job scarcity. These concerns continue to affect migrants facilities has indirectly discouraged are differentiated from pull factors, while they travel and throughout the migration to the country. which are reasons for which migrants process of settlement in a new country; might choose to migrate to a certain they are often forced to resort to country, region, or city. unlawful practices and criminal networks (i.e. smuggling and human

20 United States National Academy of Sciences, 2015. http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.abstract

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 9 International cooperation and considerations for governments

Government As well as the Convention and Protocol, not return refugees to a territory where there are other important instruments his or her life or freedom is threatened responsibilities (such as the Dublin Regulation in the EU (the principle of non-refoulement). They The UN 1951 Refugee Convention and the European Human Rights also establish cooperation procedures (the ‘Convention’) and its Convention) outlining government with the UNHCR. responsibilities. However many of these subsequent 1967 Protocol (‘the instruments are specific to certain With the Convention and Protocol in Protocol’) are the most important countries and regions rather than global mind, this section outlines the legal documents setting out in nature. Nearly 150 countries responsibilities of governments, and the government responsibilities worldwide are signatories to the political challenges and opportunities towards refugees globally. Convention and the Protocol, although that governments face when dealing fewer have fully implemented them into with asylum seekers and refugees, both law. These documents set out the in terms of formulating and definition of refugees (or asylum seekers) implementing policy. and a requirement that governments do

10 Global Crisis Centre Bureaucratic duties as , Ukraine, Pakistan and the Government Since the Convention and Protocol Western Balkan countries. Such require signatory countries to hear an agreements require the establishment of co-ordination is key asylum appeal, refugees have the right police and judicial cooperation, which Migration policy inevitably requires to remain in a country in which they presents certain challenges. coordination at the local, national and have submitted an asylum claim until international levels, as well as between their appeal is deemed invalid. This Partial compliance governments, NGOs, and private sector leads to bureaucratic obligations, In practice, compliance with the actors (discussed in subsequent sections). notably to register applicants, process Convention and Protocol is not always This is most evident in Europe, as asylum requests, provide shelter and strictly observed. This poses policy governments strive to harmonise working opportunities and sustained challenges at a global level, as the national and EU-wide migration policy. communication until a legal decision on fragmentation of global migration policy However, areas such as common border the application is undertaken. leads to a scenario of unilateralism policies and security cooperation have based on political and economic often been reactive rather than proactive. Compliance has proven to be costly, interests, rather than collaborative particularly at moments of acute burden sharing. A notable example of National politics can often hamper migratory flows. In Germany, for partial implementation of the international cooperation, as leaders example, the cost of refugee care and Convention is one country that, until refuse to take an active role in managing acceptance in 2015 was roughly 10 early 2016, only awarded refugee status regional issues out of domestic political 21 billion Euros. Greece, unable to to migrants from Europe, while granting concerns. This was the case even before shoulder similar types of costs, was Syrians a special status and refusing to the EU’s migration crisis reached a considered between 2013 and 2015 to implement any status for other common crescendo in the summer of 2015, as EU be exempt from EU-wide burden refugee migrant , such as Iraq leaders either ignored or failed to act sharing initiatives. For countries that are or Afghanistan. pre-emptively on warnings from NGOs part of the EU’s Schengen Agreement, of an impending surge in migration. asylum and border policy must be In order to combat this, in July 2016 the Additionally, the EU’s lack of common carried out at a regional level and European Commission presented a asylum policy has also led to other harmonised to be effective. proposal for the reform of the Common countries feeling the effects of one European Asylum System22 to the country’s pull factors, for example when Third countries may also have European Parliament. The proposal is to German Chancellor Angela Merkel obligations to each other on refugee replace the Asylum Procedures Directive23 declared “refugees welcome,” some issues: for example, a readmission with a new Regulation. Having a perceived this as contributing to the agreement signed between two countries Regulation, instead of a Directive would migrant crisis as they felt that this sent allows refugees that have arrived in the mean mandatory and harmonised an incorrect message to migrants, and first country and travelled onto a second application by all EU members. The led to a large influx of migration across country to be returned to the first purpose of the reform is to move numerous EU countries, including country by the second. Within the EU, towards a fully efficient, fair and Greece, Macedonia, , Croatia, this obligation is embodied in the Dublin humane asylum policy to ensure asylum Hungary, Slovenia, Austria, and Germany. Regulation, which requires asylum seekers are treated in an equal and seekers to lodge a request in the first appropriate manner by all EU members. country of arrival; additionally, there are bilateral readmission agreements between the EU and other parties such

21 http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/kosten-fuer-fluechtlinge-auf-zehn-milliarden-euro-geschaetzt-a-1051600.html 22 http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/asylum/index_en.htm 23 http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/asylum/common-procedures/index_en.htm

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 11 Migration policy in Europe In recent years, migration policy in Europe has largely been reactive rather than proactive. Even before the migrant crisis, inter-EU border and asylum policies such as Schengen and the Dublin Regulation were challenged, given that they lacked the parallel institutions of an inter-EU border guard and harmonised data sharing, or ‘smart borders.’24

The Schengen Area, which includes 26 European countries in the European Economic Area (EEA) was established in 1995 and aimed to remove obstacles to trade and the free movement of people by abolishing border controls and visa regimes between contiguous countries, also for people arriving from a third country outside the zone. However, in the past year, the Schengen area has experienced disruptions and the reinstatement of temporary border controls to deal with a variety of challenges, from terrorist-related security threats to the migrant crisis. but does not have effective provisions to schemes; safe-guard those at risk such While Schengen countries have shared ensure countries’ compliance. Since the as unaccompanied or separated children; in the benefits of abolished borders, they onset of the migrant crisis, EU leaders and develop connected systems for are now beginning to feel the have sought to amend the Dublin arrival country registration centres to consequences of the lack of protective Regulation with a method of redistributing enable refugees to request asylum across measures guaranteed in the system, asylum seekers to relieve overwhelmed different EU countries. UNHCR’s proposals specifically common policies in security, border countries such as Greece and Italy. make clear that equitable sharing of migration and border management responsibility is key to bringing about a which are necessary to secure a zone This was reflected in the six point plan managed and orderly solution.25 without internal borders. For example, proposed by UNHCR High the perpetrators of the Paris attacks in Commissioner Grandi in March 2016 to While the existing EU-wide policies are November 2015 were able to organise in help EU Member States manage and unlikely to collapse entirely, they will Belgium out of view of French police stabilize the refugee situation. The plan continue to experience stress while EU before crossing the border to carry out included six key points: relocation of leaders are only able to incrementally the attack. The Dublin Regulation is asylum seekers out of first arrival ‘hot amend them. In the meantime, another feature of migration policy spots’ such as Greece and Italy; support substantial progress on border policy, which does not necessarily address for Greece in processing and caring for such as an EU-wide border guard and corresponding border controls or refugees; compliance with EU asylum ‘smart borders’ are underway, in part inter-governmental accountability. It directives; managed solutions for safe motivated by Brexit and the desire for establishes that asylum seekers must be and legal travel for refugees to countries the remaining 27 EU member states to processed in the first country of arrival, of destination such as labour mobility deepen security cooperation.

24 http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/smart-borders/index_en.htm 25 http://www.unhcr.org/uk/news/briefing/2016/3/56d96de86/unhcr-6-steps-towards-solving-refugee-situation-europe.html

12 Global Crisis Centre Considerations for Political Political challenges governments opportunities In addition to opportunities, the current surge in migration has created a number In accordance with the requirements of Usually an unplanned phenomenon, of political challenges. Rather than the Convention and Protocol, states migration presents a variety of political perceiving the macro economic benefits often provide services to migrants, opportunities to governments. Migration of migration, some electorates tend to namely those who are in the process of can present demographic solutions to see refugees as a threat to national applying for asylum or have already ageing populations, boost growth, and culture, the welfare state, job security, secured refugee status. In theory, foster greater cooperation across regions societal harmony and the common refugees often have access to the same and countries to address migratory fabric of the EU. Moreover, an increase services as the citizens of a country. issues. Migration can provide economic in anti-immigration media reporting These services include some kind of benefits, both through adding makes the messaging around such legal status, health care, education and demographic diversity and boosting platforms difficult to disseminate. employment opportunities. For competitiveness, as well as boosting example, according to the UNHCR consumption, provided that a degree of The politics of migration have shown the Weekly Report of 20 October 2016, integration is ensured by the state. EU’s weakness to drive policy on issues approximately 700 Germany has historically benefited from that affect society at the micro level, as from camps in Greece started school migration and stands to profit in the electorates turn away from collective that same month with 45 classes future as well. Waves of Turkish migrants burden sharing. This, in turn, has tailored to refugee children at 16 compensated for a deficiency of manual undermined EU-wide consensus, and primary and secondary pub lic schools. labourers in the post-war decades in has also dovetailed with attempts by Working closely with the Greek Ministry Germany, and migrants from Eastern populist politicians to disrupt EU-level of Education, the UNHCR supported the Europe and the Middle East might offset politics by asserting national referenda, provision of interpretation services. the negative economic trends of an as has been the case with the UK’s EU ageing population over the coming membership referendum or the Dutch However, gaining access to such benefits decades if there is successful integration. referendum on the association agreement can be hampered by bureaucratic with Ukraine. More broadly, there is obstacles, language barriers, an inability The migrant crisis in Europe has concern that unmanaged migration to secure stable residence or the prompted important discussions on undermines the belief in the European introduction of government-led policies border policy and greater security. This project, instead fostering xenophobia to constrain access. This final constraint is despite the broader challenge of and tendencies towards closed borders has been a more active factor in Europe developing an EU-wide asylum policy, as and protective governments. in the wake of the migrant crisis, as EU countries develop independent, countries seek to reduce pull factors unilateral solutions to the issues. while still maintaining their Moreover, the crisis has compelled commitment to upholding international greater cooperation between the EU and refugee law. For example, some EU third party countries and regions. For Migration can present countries have imposed a freeze on example, during the Valetta Conference demographic solutions to family reunification settlement schemes in Malta, late 2015, the EU provided ageing populations, boost in order to deal with current capacity development-related incentives for growth, and foster greater issues while also discouraging sub-Saharan African countries in cooperation across regions migration. Some EU countries have also exchange for cooperation on migration and countries. sought to make benefits less liquid, for issues. Although advances since the example by replacing cash benefits with conference have been limited, services in kind, such as credit towards governments have substantial housing or healthcare. opportunities for engagement.

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 13 Economic impacts and the role of business

Economic impacts While this paper provides a high level Fiscal policy and understanding of the economic public finances Global migration presents a range environment created by the global First and most pressing, the ongoing of opportunities and challenges to migrant crisis, it is important to note migrant crisis compels increased public businesses. It does so by that each economic impact will be felt by spending. In many European countries, influencing economic dynamics at migrant-hosting countries to different this fiscal dynamic is viewed as a drain the country and regional levels degrees – depending on a multitude of on host governments resulting from a across three main areas: fiscal factors including geography, policy rapid increase in welfare payments and policy and public finances, labour preference, and demographics – and broader humanitarian assistance market supply and demand, and across different time horizons. For associated with reception and initial new commercial opportunities. example, unmanaged migration will support services. This is particularly This section will describe each of affect public finances significantly and problematic in countries experiencing these economic dynamics and immediately, generating both fiscal overwhelmed capacity. Governments assess how they shape the role of constraints as well as stimulus. Labour facing a surge in unmanaged migration markets, however, may not process the business in addressing the global will be forced to increase public full effects of unmanaged migration for migrant crisis. spending in areas such as food, shelter, the next few years, given varying policy health, and basic income support. Key considerations around migrant components of the resettlement and integration and resident workers. The integration process are education and impacts of this can be interpreted both language training. Governments will positively and negatively. increasingly shoulder the up-front expenditures associated with these

14 Global Crisis Centre services, as well as systems for Labour market supply up about 0.4% of the EEA labour force. processing asylum claims and enforcing and demand In Germany, a country commonly cited in returns. In countries suffering In the medium to long term, global high demand for labour, asylum seekers overcapacity, additional financing will migration will increasingly shape labour are expected to make up around 1% of likely be necessary for security markets, influencing employment and the work force by the end of 2016.28 purposes, such as policing and border GDP dynamics more broadly. As stated control. In the long term, countries that previously, migration can offer see the unsuccessful integration of demographic solutions to ageing migrants could experience heightened populations and is likely to enhance Government financing will boost neighbourhood crime and instability demographic diversity in workforces. aggregate demand, creating (due to any tension between migrant Though the entry of migrants and stimulus in the economy. groups and native populations), and refugees into employment will generate disenfranchisement with civil society, downward pressures on wages and eventually mandating more police inflation, this will likely be compensated spending by governments. in part by the fiscal expansion.

The necessary increase in public spending The impact of unmanaged migration in response to the migrant crisis will (i.e. migration that a host country has generate budgetary constraints across not planned or accounted for) on labour governments. The consideration by markets will occur gradually and over some countries of offering a basic an extended period. This is due, in part, unconditional income without to the varying conditions across additional welfare or benefits, could countries for accessing labour markets offer a potential solution for relieving during the period of asylum claim. such fiscal pressures. Viewed positively, While the policy environment of some government financing will also function countries prevents asylum seekers from to boost aggregate demand, creating working at all whilst their claim is being stimulus in the economy. The processed, asylum seekers in other International Monetary Fund (IMF) countries can access the formal labour projects that, relative to the baseline, market almost immediately or face the current surge in asylum seekers will significant waiting periods. In many lift the EU’s Gross Domestic Product cases, limited language training and a (GDP) by about 0.09% and 0.13% for lack of documentation proving migrants’ 2016 and 2017 respectively.26 This is qualifications and approval for largely due to an increase in aggregate employment exacerbate this waiting demand in the European economy, period and prolong migrants’ entry into which the OECD estimates at roughly labour markets, so increasing public 0.1-0.2% of GDP in 2016 and 2017.27 spending. In the EEA for example, by the end of 2016 higher bound estimates indicate that asylum seekers will make

26 https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2016/sdn1602.pdf 27 https://www.oecd.org/migration/How-will-the-refugee-surge-affect-the-European-economy.pdf 28 https://www.oecd.org/migration/How-will-the-refugee-surge-affect-the-European-economy.pdf

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 15 The speed of migrants’ integration into a influence the successful integration of effects in Europe have fuelled the host country’s labour market, the extent migrants into labour markets and the development of informal economies. to which their skills complement or positive economic impacts of their This is largely a consequence of overlap with those of the resident participation over time. refugees’ lack of work permits, workforce, and their contribution to offering a supply shock to informal 30 production (or labour market New commercial opportunities labour markets. performance) will determine the With an increase in fiscal spending, global long-run impact of unmanaged migration generates important commercial A sometimes perceived lack of human or migration on employment dynamics and opportunities. The resettlement and innovative capacity on the part of national GDPs. This relationship touches integration of refugees has, and will governments, alongside a widespread on two key challenges: continue to boost consumption, mostly desire of individuals and organisations through food sales and other household across sectors to work toward the Perceptions of the resident native goods, and also in real estate (providing common good, creates space for labour force temporary and permanent housing entrepreneurial activity. This is also true As unmanaged migrants are options for newly-arrived individuals).29 for Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) increasingly integrated into the This is particularly evident in countries and independent private sector actors workforces of host countries, resident like Turkey, where many migrants arrive which can contribute solutions to the 31 native labour market participants could with cash in hand. However, the current issues most pressing. We elaborate on fear that migrants are taking their jobs. crisis in the Middle East and its spillover this point in the subsequent section.

Labour market performance of unmanaged migrants In Europe and other developed economies, unmanaged migrants often present weaker labour market performance – defined by participation rates, employment rates, and wages – than resident native labour market participants. This is particularly true in the period immediately following a migrants’ arrival in the host country, and especially for unmanaged female migrants, refugees, and unmanaged migrants from less developed economies or with different language skills.

Businesses face a unique challenge in promoting an environment of cultural understanding for refugees and unmanaged migrants, as they seek to enhance the performance of their employees. The extent to which businesses and host governments recognise these challenges and develop policies for counteracting them, alongside the increased utilisation of skills-job matching platforms, will

29 World Bank, 2015. The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Labour Market. http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/20 16/02/09/090224b08415e3b5/3_0/Rendered/PDF/laborThe0impact0of00Turkish0labor0market.pdf 30 Frontier Strategy Group. Europe’s Migrant Crisis: What to Expect in 2016 and Beyond. http://blog.frontierstrategygroup.com/2016/06/europe/ 31 Wharton, 2015. Europe’s Migrant Crisis: Balancing the Risks with Long-term Gains. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/europes-migrant-crisis-balancing- the-risks-with-long-term-gains/

16 Global Crisis Centre The role of business response strategy. They can create operational definitions for each agency’s Global migration and the migrant crisis core mandate and responsibilities, and can generate a variety of opportunities ultimately, work with government bodies for businesses. to develop an overarching framework for refugee and migrant response. Government support As the global migrant crisis and Intra-departmental organisation and unmanaged migratory flows have programme management expanded and evolved, many Governments around the world are governments around the world have facing increased pressure to provide struggled to respond to the influx. The resources in responding to the global demand for humanitarian assistance in migrant crisis. Historically, many the short-term and institutional change countries developed ad hoc solutions to in the long-term have highlighted these pressures, as political mandates to capacity and organisational constraints do so ebbed and flowed. However, as the that private sector actors can help to current crisis appears more protracted alleviate in two primary ways: and public demands increase, there is a critical need for more sustainable Inter-departmental coordination and solutions. One such need is internal strategic planning organisation and efficiency frameworks, In many countries, different government which businesses are well suited to provide, given their advanced programme One such need is internal departments or agencies manage different aspects of the migrant arrival management capacity. Through the organisation and efficiency and resettlement process. The performance of organisational frameworks, which businesses difficulties of cross-agency coordination assessments and the development of are well suited to provide, given pose unique challenges, and can create more advanced project management their advanced programme inefficiencies at a systemic level. This is systems, businesses can offer solutions management capacity. particularly problematic in environments to orchestrate processes and increase where the relevant departments lack efficiencies within government clarity on their specific mandate and the departments and agencies. Such complementary services offered by other solutions would be particularly valuable agencies. Through in-depth advisory and in areas such as refugee admissions and inter-agency coordination, businesses processing, where many countries face can assist municipal and national severe capacity constraints. governments with their strategic analysis and planning objectives. They Corporate social responsibility can also assist in contract management, Sustainable solutions to the migrant critical for the management of large crisis and unmanaged global migration, financial flows required for refugee more broadly, require engagement from response. In areas such as coordination organisations across the public and between the central government and private sectors. Businesses, specifically, local authorities, businesses can play a can also extend their engagement critical function in assisting local policy beyond the immediate crisis through makers on the rights and regulations Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) associated with the country’s refugee initiatives in key areas, including response, often determined at the employment, education, healthcare, national level. Businesses can help and housing. governments identify the risks and opportunities inherent in their refugee

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 17 Filling the skills gap Public Private Partnerships Skills and employment mapping One of the primary concerns of business (PPPs) Seeking to promote the successful executives, according to the 19th Annual Unmanaged migration and the reception integration of migrants and refugees into PwC CEO survey, is the availability of of refugees also puts pressure on labour markets and local communities, key skills.32 Migration has a significant government and non-government businesses can contribute to the influence on labour markets, and the agencies to provide basic human development of mature assessment tools impact of migration on a country’s GDP services such as healthcare and housing. for skills and employment mapping. is affected by the extent to which Businesses can play a key role in Such tools can be used to match the migrants and refugees are effectively providing these services both through backgrounds, skills, and language integrated into a country’s workforce. funding and also by engaging in PPPs profiles of migrants with a country’s Businesses play a key role in this with the relevant government agencies. labour demands to foster an environment relationship through their willingness to In many cases businesses can most conducive to personal wellbeing accept migrant workers. Ideally this is supplement a government or NGO’s role and economic health. done through the hosting of internships in providing these services by and trainees; ultimately recruiting developing independent solutions. migrants as full-time employees. However, a frequent challenge faced by Innovation migrants and refugees in gaining The role of business in innovating employment is successfully matching solutions to issues surrounding the global their skills and/or gaining a work permit migrant crisis is critical. Looking beyond for the labour needed by the host country. technology, which is addressed in the subsequent section, businesses can be Businesses can strive to fill this gap in a integral in developing new initiatives number of ways, specifically through the that aim to mitigate the negative effects hosting of language and skills-based of the migrant crisis and promote the training programmes or the sponsorship economic strength of countries and the of learning opportunities for migrants wellbeing of individuals. For example: and refugees at local universities and educational institutions. This will serve the dual purpose of helping businesses Project management and to absorb migrants in need of jobs, and information sharing helping countries to grow their labour Responding to issues associated with force, a critical need in places such as governmental and agency capacity Germany, Italy and Japan, which are constraints, businesses can innovate new experiencing significant systems for programme management and population ageing. information sharing. They can drive the development of standardised fact bases, In addition, the subsequent combination containing both quantitative and of low managed resettlement rates to qualitative data points on global migratory desired countries and more refugees in flows and refugee profiles, in an effort to border host countries living in create common understanding across communities and cities whilst awaiting sectors and agencies, and also to support resettlement, can lead to crowded government initiatives around border conditions with refugees perhaps controls and national security. working informally, exposed to exploitation. Here international business can help support these communities as governments look for new approaches with new and different actors.

32 https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2016/landing-page/pwc-19th-annual-global-ceo-survey.pdf

18 Global Crisis Centre The role of technology and digital innovation

Technology plays a critical role in Typically, governments and international Technology solutions the refugee and migrant crisis, organisations rely on end-to-end through the innovation and enterprise technology solutions – for governments and provision of tools and solutions to hardware, software and infrastructure international governments, private sector and for database management, other international organisations. communication between agencies, organisations security at and inside borders, identity Technology companies, both enterprise verification and tracking, strategic and consumer focused, provide analysis and planning, and aid and hardware, software and infrastructure funds distribution. to governments and international organisations that maintain databases of Some consumer focused technology incoming asylum seekers and migrants. companies use mobile phone apps to provide solutions to issues faced by The three main IT systems that the refugees at a more micro level, such as technology sector has helped create in information sharing, housing, safety, aid Europe are the , the Schengen and fund raising, healthcare, integration Information System and the Visa and jobs matching. Information System (See Figure 5).

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 19 Given the sheer number of refugees, Addressing challenges in information Biometrics data points and technical capacity management and sharing across agencies Breakthroughs in biometrics—finger constraints, information management and organisations requires collaboration printing, facial recognition and iris remains one of the biggest challenges. as well as immense technological scanning - play a key role in identity Additionally, most databases cannot capacity that can process and match verification, border controls and easily communicate with other information across billions of queries in tracking. With the help of biometrics, databases in different countries. a timely, secure and efficient manner. governments and international Information on asylum seekers often sits organisations can establish unique in silos and is ineffective in piecing Connecting systems is also dependent identities of asylum seekers and together a cohesive picture at the time of on strong international networks as refugees, address the issue of lack of decision making. Furthermore, technical databases are invariably related to, and documentation for asylum seekers, and standards and platforms are not always housed in, individual countries, especially also allay security concerns by enabling consistent across organisations and in the EU. Additionally in remote border identification and tracking of those agencies within and across countries, areas, technology infrastructure and inside the host countries’ borders. complicating the linking of systems. online connectivity is generally not as Therefore, to address the technical strong, so access to reliable information Biometrics, through the establishment challenges, governments, along with the is not always possible. This can hamper of unique IDs, such as those developed private sector need to work together to border guards to be able to cross-check by the Unique Identification Authority of enable the linking up of systems, or identities and entry-exit or criminal India (UIDAI)33, can help with perhaps create a new, centralised, records of incoming asylum seekers on a disbursement of aid directly to refugees all-encompassing database on asylum real-time basis. and undercut corruption and fraud. seekers, immigrants and visitors. With the current Syrian crisis, iris scans are often used to establish the identity of refugees and their biometric information is encoded into aid cards Figure 5: The three main IT systems the technology sector has helped create equipped with digital encoders and in Europe: vouchers they receive. In the Middle East, iris scanners are increasingly appearing in retail shops that accept refugees’ aid cards and vouchers in Eurodac: centralised EU database that collects and exchange for necessities. These 1 processes the digitalised fingerprints of asylum seekers identifiers also allow consumption and behavioural patterns to be monitored and forecasted. In some countries such as Lebanon, digital cards and vouchers can be used to withdraw cash from Schengen Information System (SIS II): the largest Automatic Teller Machines (ATMs). 2 information system for public security and law enforcement cooperation in Europe

Visa Information System (VIS): a system that allows 3 Schengen states to share visa data for those who visit or move throughout the Schengen area.

33 http://uidai.gov.in/

20 Global Crisis Centre Successful employment of biometric Border control systems Additionally, the European Commission technologies is dependent on availability and drones is considering employing a fleet of drones of funds to afford equipment, especially Smart Borders is a European Commission to monitor its remote unmanned border for iris scans at entry-exit points at initiative to modernise and more areas, notwithstanding the fact that the borders. Also, advances in biometrics efficiently manage the EU’s external acceptability of drones remains are currently limited by database borders through innovative technologies. politically ambiguous. Drone-mounted capacity challenges, such as algorithmic Some countries, such as Spain and cameras can monitor migrant movement and scalability issues. Facial recognition Portugal are testing biometric screening during daylight hours, while infrared is the most affordable of the three above systems at border control points which sensors can help track at night. mentioned biometric technologies, as match travellers’ facial biometrics other technologies such as iris scans are against those on travel documents, with Some non-governmental agencies also still expensive to scale. Currently, facial additional provision for fingerprinting. employ drones to search the seas and recognition and finger printing locate refugees in distress. therefore remain the most widely used.

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 21 Mobile-based tech prototyped and tested in UNHCR The technology community and operations around the world depending private sector have come together solutions to help on needs and context.34 to brainstorm solutions to the refugees Internet connectivity and migrant crisis at various Vigorous efforts are underway in the communication hackathons and meetups technology community to help refugees organised by innovation labs of and other stakeholders in the field. To Internet connectivity and communication are key to access agencies of the United Nations. reach refugees and individuals more effectively, mobile phone based apps are information and support networks. To the preferred solutions and several are enforce this a major social media being developed to address issues such network has vowed to bring internet as housing, communication and internet access to UN coordinated refugee connectivity, safety and surveillance, camps. And a global industry body for healthcare, information provision, telecommunication providers launched crowd sourcing, jobs matching and the ‘Humanitarian Connectivity 35 overall integration. Charter’, calling for a coordinated plan from mobile service operators to provide The technology community and private emergency network coverage, including sector have come together repeatedly to wifi in areas with high refugee brainstorm solutions to the migrant concentration. The demand is assessed crisis at various hackathons and meet through data gained from the UNHCR’s ups are organised by innovation labs of Statistics Database and from data UNHCR in different countries. For collected in the field by other NGOs and example in Lebanon, Egypt and voluntary organisations. Crowdsourcing particularly Jordan they brainstorm is also proving to be one of the most initiatives such as RAIS (Refugee useful data-driven tools for tackling Assistance Information Systems), ‘Social refugee challenges. Media and SMS Outreach’ and ‘Biometric Cash Assistance’. Through these innovation labs, projects are

34 http://innovation.unhcr.org/labs/ 35 http://www.unocha.org/top-stories/all-stories/mobile-network-operators-pledge-support-their-subscribers-humanitarian-crise

22 Global Crisis Centre Migrant safety Healthcare Jobs matching Companies and individuals have also Due to a shortage of medical staff in One of the key contributions the private developed apps that provide information to crowded refugee centres around the sector can make to facilitate refugees’ migrants for their safety. One such example Middle East, healthcare agencies are integration in their host countries is the is a mobile portal created for NGOs to increasingly using telemedicine to allow provision of jobs or training for entering provide refugees with real time information specialists around the world to the labour market. The key to getting a for safer and quicker onward journeys. communicate with patients in field job is learning the host country’s hospitals remotely, and even to language along with matching and/or Fundraising and aid supervise complex surgical procedures. acquiring the skills in demand in the Technology companies, especially Additionally, due to lack of medical host country. Various NGOs, start-ups crowdfunding companies are playing an records and documentation for refugees and private sector companies are important role in helping aid fleeing warzones, projects are underway already providing solutions: for example organisations raise money and distribute to develop ways for a person to carry his in refugee camps distributing donated aid. Examples include a project backed or her own health records in a portable, laptops to enhance language and online by the UNHCR which raised over $1.5 electronic format on their mobile learning skills; teaching migrants million from more than 23,000 backers; phones. Such a solution would also help programming; offering internships and new donation vehicles being built for overcome language barriers between apprenticeships etc. PwC Germany has NGOs; and initiatives where addresses medical professionals and refugees. also successfully launched the are being created for refugee camps to Jobführerschein initiative; helping to which aid can be delivered. Integration and settling find jobs by providing combined There are now several mobile apps that language and vocational orientation courses for over 250 refugees. Housing help refugees integrate in their host Social entrepreneurs have launched countries better. One such app, available multiple online initiatives to house in multiple languages, helps refugees refugees, especially across Europe. For who are settling into a new city to example: an accommodation booking navigate filing for asylum and access company has created a dedicated basic services such as healthcare etc. channel to enable aid workers to stay One of the world’s largest software close to their work locations; another developers is also working on a free app organisation is helping crowdsource which could be used by refugees in accommodation for refugees in Germany to register for asylum. PwC European nations; and one site matches Netherlands has developed its own refugees in Germany to shared housing ‘Welcome in’ platform that helps incoming for a minimum of three months. migrants, including refugees, integrate and settle-in better in host countries.

Healthcare agencies are increasingly using telemedicine to allow specialists around the world to communicate with patients in field hospitals remotely.

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 23 Future trends and recommendations

The paper thus far has sought to Future trends Trends exacerbating provide a clearer understanding of impacting push push factors the ongoing migrant crisis, Horn of Africa especially in Europe, and explored factors and scenarios For decades, the Horn of Africa, definitions, causes and challenges. for pull factors particularly Somalia and , has The paper has also outlined the seen a steady stream of migration, role and challenges faced by Push factors: increasing scale largely due to political instability in the governments, businesses and Push factors, such as political instability region. The UN estimates that roughly technology while addressing this and climate change are likely to increase 400,000 people, nine percent of the crisis. This final section takes a in global hotspots beyond Europe over Eritrean population, have fled in recent closer look at push and pull factors the next two years, thus increasing the years.37 We anticipate climate change that could influence future refugee flow of refugees worldwide. The issues, especially in the Horn of Africa and unmanaged migration flows, European Commission expects another to continue driving even more people and makes recommendations to three million refugees to arrive by the from their homelands. governments, businesses and end of 2016 compared to approximately technology companies. 700,000 arriving by November 2015, and does not anticipate the momentum to slow before 2017.36

36 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-expecting-another-3-million-refugees-migrants-before-end-of-2016-a6722096.html 37 http://www.wsj.com/articles/eritreans-flee-conscription-and-poverty-adding-to-the-migrant-crisis-in-europe-1445391364

24 Global Crisis Centre Libya Yemen Libya is likely to remain a major gateway As competing forces, both external and for migrants trying to reach Europe, internal, fight for control of the country, despite the recent establishment of a there has been a surge in individuals national unity government. Since the fleeing Yemen in search of stability. end of the Gadhafi regime, Libya has According to UNHCR, the roughly become the preferred gateway for 180,000 individuals fleeing Yemen sub-Saharan African migrants, primarily travel to other countries in the particularly those from West Africa or region: Oman (51,000), Saudi Arabia Eritrea, and their smugglers. Having a (39,880), Djibouti (35,562), Somalia relatively unstable central authority (32,209), Ethiopia (12,780), and Sudan means that there has been less opportunity (6,347).38 In addition, there are also to put effective controls of migration large numbers of Somalis who have routes in place, unlike other countries in been living in Yemen as refugees, and the region like Tunisia or Egypt. This has are now returning to Somalia. increased pressure on Southern European countries (particularly Italy, whose Southeast Asia island of Lampedusa is only a few The largest migrant crisis in Southeast hundred kilometres away from the Asia in the past several years concerns Libyan coast) that are receiving this the in Myanmar. The Push factors, such as political inflow of migrants. Although the UN Office for the Coordination of instability and climate change 2015-2016 peace talks between the Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates are likely to increase in global Islamist and non-Islamist camps were 230,000 internally displaced people in successful on balance, the national unity hotspots beyond Europe over Myanmar, most of which are ethnic the next two years, thus government will struggle to impose its Rohingya .39 The Myanmar authority over the various and government does not acknowledge the increasing the flow of refugees groups in Libya. Rohingya as citizens, rather claiming worldwide. that they are illegal immigrants from As a result, European governments are , and the government of wanting to find a solution. However Bangladesh insists they are not. As a migratory issues are likely to persist; result, tens of thousands of Rohingya even when the unity government is fully Muslims have sought to escape to operational, it will potentially take or Malaysia, mainly by sea, months, if not years, before they are able with large loss of life, reaching a peak to effectively manage the current in 2015.40 outflow and associated risks.

38 http://data.unhcr.org/yemen/regional.php 39 https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/asia-and-the-pacific/myanmar/report-myanmar/ 40 https://www.theguardian.com/law/2015/oct/21/thousands-rohingya-refugees-flee-boat-looming-disaster-amnesty

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 25 Climate change In the future, climate change may In addition to rising political volatility, compel migration from more and other the environment’s impact on global regions of the world, which will present migratory flows is significant and likely an increase in associated political and to grow exponentially in the coming economic risks. Public and private sector years, given the accelerated rate of actors alike must therefore shift the climate change and its consequences. focus from managing disasters to Environmental change can cause managing risks, i.e. being more migration both through general disaster resilient.42 degradation (such as desertification, rising sea level or coastal erosion) and Given structural issues and continued also through slow or sudden-onset political instability in the Middle East natural disasters, such as earthquakes, and various countries in Africa, migrant tropical storms, flooding or landslides. flows to Europe are likely to increase Both phenomena affect livelihood and therefore affect migration globally patterns and systems of production and, as countries outside Europe offer to take therefore, compel individuals and in more refugees from the conflict areas. communities to leave their homes either temporarily or permanently.

The risks associated with such migration are likely to be exacerbated by issues of poverty, governance, conflict, and general security. In the Middle East, for example, climate change could render certain regions, already vulnerable to violent conflict, uninhabitable over the long-term. Even the United States has started its first subsidised resettlements forced by climate change.41

41 http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/03/us/resettling-the-first-american-climate-refugees.html?_r=0 42 The Global Assessment Report 2015, https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/gar

26 Global Crisis Centre Pull factors: scenarios increased workforce and cultural Fourth scenario based on government policies diversity. That said, successful If government policies are closed and and society integration of refugees can increase pull the society is open, the country is more In order to assess pull factors in the factors for other refugees. likely to be able to manage diversity future, we look at four simple, within its closed borders. theoretical scenarios based on two Second scenario variables – government policies and If both government policies and As the migrant crisis increases globally, society – and whether both are societies are closed to refugees, pull based on the intersectionality of relatively open or closed to refugees factors for refugees are lower as are domestic politics, economics and social (see Figure 6). opportunities for the country to capitalise factors, some countries, such as those in on the economic potential of refugees. the EU are likely to become more closed Government policies towards refugees. On the other hand, other countries are likely to remain Open government policies refer to the Third scenario relatively more open and accepting of existence of formal government plans to If government policies are open whereas refugees over the short and medium intake refugees whereas closed implies the society is closed, hostility towards term; enabling them to reap the that the government does not have refugees and potential for conflict and economic and social benefits from formal policies to intake refugees on a backlash increases. successful integration. regular or ad-hoc basis.

Societies Figure 6: Future scenarios impacting pull factors Open societies refer to societies that absorb and integrate refugees relatively Open Scenario 1 Scenario 4 easily compared to closed societies where refugees find it exceedingly Closed Scenario 3 Scenario 2 difficult to integrate and face continued Society hostility and lack of opportunities. Open Closed

Theoretical pull scenarios Government policies First scenario If both government policies and societies are open to refugees and can successfully integrate them in a managed way, all parties stand to benefit from the economic promise of an

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 27 The European Union Host countries in the EU risk becoming The issue of asylum seekers attempting Canada is another example of a country increasingly closed as evidenced by the to enter Australia, particularly by sea, that has been open towards refugees Brexit vote in the UK and rapid rise of has been an ongoing political issue. (both, in terms of government policies right wing populist leaders. According Offshore processing of applications in and society) and in 2016, was ranked as to the Migration Observatory at Oxford centres established in off-shore locations one of the most welcoming countries for University, in 2015, three quarters of have been a widely debated component refugees by Amnesty International47. people in Britain favoured reducing of Australian migration policy. Public Between November 2015 and February immigration43. The alleged assaults in concerns about conditions within these 2016, the Government re-settled 25,000 Germany on New Year's Eve in 2016 and centres and treatment of migrants have Syrian refugees48 and has committed to subsequent attacks in France have soured been raised to both major political settling more in the future. Even though public sentiment towards refugees. parties when in Government. However, the government estimates the cost to As societies in the EU become more closed, in response to developments in the re-settle the 25,000 Syrian refugees to democratically elected governments Middle East and migratory flows across be over a billion dollars over the next six may also sooner or later have to take into Europe, in late 2015 years49, Canada’s regions that are struggling account public sentiment against migrants government publicly committed to with long-term economic stagnation and and refugees. As migration becomes accepting an additional 12,000 Syrian an aging population are likely to get a increasingly politicised in some host and Iraqi refugees, and increasing the boost from incoming Syrian refugees. countries, the basic rights of asylum annual intake of refugees from all seekers may more frequently be nations from 13,750 for 2015-2016 to To conclude, based on the intersectionality compromised despite policies of the UN, 18,750 for 2018-2019. 44 Per polls in of domestic economics, politics and European Council and European Human 2015, such as the one conducted by social factors, there may be divergent Rights Commission. Lonergan Research, the majority of future scenarios for different host Australians back the decision to increase countries in terms of accepting, Therefore, based on current trends in the intake of Syrian refugees 45, and integrating and reaping benefits from the EU, scenario three (closed society, Amnesty International ranked Australia refugees. Therefore, pull factors for open government policies) or scenario as one of the most welcoming refugee refugees are likely to differ based on two (closed society, closed government destinations in 2016 46. With re-election future scenarios that play out across policies) may be more prevalent in the of the incumbent Government in mid various host nations. future. Policies dealing with migration 2016, Australians will be watching how in some host countries may become it delivers on its commitment and increasingly customised towards overcomes the many challenges to Based on current trends in the differentiated national prerogatives. effective resettlement. While the EU, scenario three (closed If this is the case those countries may country as well as the refugees can society, open government move away from the current EU model benefit from relatively open government policies) or scenario two in which the goal for migration policy is policies and society, i.e. scenario one, harmonisation across countries with according to surveys such as the one by (closed society, closed disparate geographies, demographics Lonergan Research, people believe the government policies) may be and political landscapes, to a model government needs to do more to more prevalent in the future. which employs more direct control over implement the plan to settle and the process of migration to limit access integrate refugees into Australian to benefits etc. society. Better integration could serve as a pull factor for additional refugees who As a result, while the inevitability of the can in turn contribute more to the movement of people across borders may growth of the Australian economy continue to pose a challenge to security, and society. the economic impact of migration will be differentiated between states according to the political capacity to integrate migrants into society.

43 www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk 44 Australian Government Department of Social Services, https://www.dss.gov.au/settlement-and-multicultural-affairs-programs-policy/syrian-iraqi-humanitarian-crisis 45 https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/09/poll-shows-australians-back-rise-in-refugee-intake-but-criticise-abbotts-handling-of-crisis 46 Amnesty International, http://www.amnesty.org.au/news/comments/41797/ 47 https://www.thestar.com/news/immigration/2016/05/19/canada-ranks-4th-most-welcoming-country-for-refugees.html 48 Government of Canada, http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/refugees/welcome/ 49 http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/03/22/syrian-refugees-federal-budget-2016_n_9525346.html

28 Global Crisis Centre Recommendations Governments and arguably provide more aid or invest in international organisations the creation of sustainable livelihoods at In the following section, we present Governments can take actions to reduce the source of conflicts and economic recommendations for governments, push and pull factors that drive malaise, so as to help create opportunities international organisations, NGOs and unmanaged migration, as well as and decrease unmanaged migration. the private sector, including technology manage the current crisis, both within companies, on managing the refugee and at their borders. However, to Governments can also forge quid pro quo and migrant crisis, globally. effectively respond to the migrant crisis, bilateral or multi-lateral agreements, it is key that governments share such as the 2016 EU-Turkish agreement information and work together. to stem the flow of migrants into the EU. To protect vulnerable refugees, deeper To reduce push factors collaboration and agreements are important for governments, government To reduce push factors governments agencies and multilateral organisations collaboratively can address the sources to better co-ordinate, communicate and of the migrant crisis – economically, share information. This, in order to help politically and through co-operation increase successful cross-border agreements with counterparty operations against criminals and criminal governments and international organisations – especially those involved organisations. Governments of countries in migrant smuggling. This is also where that accept refugees, typically richer the link between governments and countries with more opportunities, can technology needs to be strong.

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 29 To address pull factors language courses. Private sector entities Governments should be able to better can engage in PPPs with relevant public detect illegal migrants, quickly process agencies to provide basic human their asylum applications and return services such as healthcare and housing. migrants that are not granted asylum. One of the incentives for unmanaged This paper has highlighted some of the migrants is the knowledge that the EU’s ways in which businesses can more fully return system – meant to return engage in new initiatives that aim to unmanaged migrants or those whose mitigate risks and promote new asylum applications have been refused – opportunities for countries and is not infallible. Governments need to individuals. However, working take further measures to strengthen alongside government institutions and security at borders, as well as better agencies, businesses can ensure that track the entry and exit of migrants their efforts are in line with national across borders. Improving the sharing policy and benefit from the increased and coordination of information across political resources devoted to the agencies and countries would also help migrant crisis, as well as the breadth of governments improve their capabilities data and knowledge that governments to manage and control the refugee maintain. Governments, on the other influx, both in country as well as at their hand, can benefit from businesses’ focus The private sector can help borders. Primarily, the way in which on efficiency, innovation, and value-add, governments and their agencies in an effort to reduce redundancies and governments formulate policies to co-ordinate better, engage in integrate refugees with different facilitate effective organisation. cultural backgrounds and skills into Working together, public and private public-private partnerships to society, taking into account their public’s sector actors can develop real-time provide humanitarian needs, perception and attitude, could also solutions for the enhancement of global offer employment and training determine whether further refugees are wellbeing and economic health. programs, and find innovative drawn to recipient countries. solutions to tackle various Technology companies can also help by aspects of this crisis. Role of private sector, including finding innovative solutions; continuing to provide tools and solutions to technology companies, in governments, NGOs, private sector and finding solutions international organisations as they The private sector can help governments grapple with the refugee and migrant and their agencies co-ordinate better, crisis whilst facing multiple constraints. engage in PPPs to provide humanitarian Innovative consumer-focused needs, offer employment and training technology companies and start-ups can programmes, and find innovative provide enhanced solutions to issues solutions to tackle various aspects of this faced by refugees at a more micro level, crisis. The private sector can also help such as information sharing, housing, governments and relevant agencies safety, aid and fund raising, healthcare, dealing with the migrant crisis overcome integration and jobs matching. capacity and organisational constraints Enterprise technology companies can by facilitating inter-departmental provide more tailored end-to-end coordination and strategic planning, hardware, software and infrastructure and intra-departmental organisation solutions for improved database and programme management. management, communication between agencies, security at and inside borders, Businesses can extend their engagement identity verification and tracking, beyond the immediate crisis through strategic analysis and planning, and aid CSR initiatives in key areas, including and funds distribution. employment, education, healthcare, and housing. They can also play a key role in helping integrate refugees by recruiting as employees, hosting internships, apprenticeships and offering skills training programmes, including

30 Global Crisis Centre Concluding remarks

In the current refugee and migrant crisis, the definitions and responsibilities outlined in the UN’s 1951 Refugee Convention and subsequent 1967 Protocol are critical principles in guaranteeing to safeguard humanitarian assistance to those most in need.

Beyond these agreements, international solidarity and burden-sharing together with collaboration, communication and information dissemination are absolutely necessary for increasing coordination and clarity around the growing migratory issues the world is facing.

This paper has highlighted how the combined roles of governments, business and technology are key in helping resolve these complex issues and challenges.

Working alongside government institutions and agencies, businesses can bring their expertise to help enhance and streamline country and regional solutions. Governments and governmental agencies can benefit from new technologies, business knowledge and PPPs to help increase efficiencies, enable cost sharing and take advantage of innovative solutions for effective management and controls.

In conclusion, to enhance the positive potential impacts – both societal and economic – and mitigate the risks associated with evolving global migratory flows, individuals, technology, private sector and governments must work together to give a strong collaborative response.

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 31 Contacts

For more information contact:

Global Crisis Centre Global Immigration Countries

Melanie Butler Julia Onslow-Cole Australia Global Crisis Centre Global Immigration Lead Mark Rigby Global and Europe, Middle East and Partner, PwC UK PwC Australia Africa Lead +44 (0)20 7804 7252 +61 2 8266 1774 Partner, PwC UK [email protected] [email protected] +44 (0)20 7804 5158 Nadia Idries Belgium [email protected] Global Immigration Marc Sel Sloane Menkes PwC UK PwC Belgium Global Crisis Centre +44 (0)20 7212 6017 +32 3 2593410 Asia Paci ic and Lead [email protected] [email protected] Principal, PwC US Germany +1 703 624 7635 Global Government Security Stefan Frey [email protected] Network Partner, Strategy& Germany Ray Jackson +49 89 54525 646 Global Crisis Centre George Alders [email protected] PwC UK Global Government Security Luxembourg +44 (0)7790 554806 Network Lead Antonia Auman [email protected] Partner, PwC Netherlands PwC Luxembourg +31 88 792 32 85 +352 621 33 4059 [email protected] [email protected] Wim Wensink Serge Hanssens Global Government Security PwC Luxembourg Network Driver +352 49 48 48 2189 PwC Netherlands [email protected] +31 88 792 33 15 [email protected] Norway Roger Mortensen PwC Norway +47 952 60 699 [email protected] United States Amy Countryman PwC US +1 804 338 1219 [email protected]

32 Global Crisis Centre References

Eurasia Group analysis and interviews with PwC representatives, May-June 2016.

European Agency for the operational management of large-scale IT systems in the area of freedom, security and justice, 2016. http://www.eulisa.europa.eu/AboutUs/MandateAndActivities/CoreActivities/Pages/OperationalManagement.aspx

European Commission, written by PwC, 2014. Technical Study on Smart Borders – Cost Analysis, Final Report. http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/smart-borders/docs/smart_borders_costs_ study_en.pdf

European Commission, 2015. Testing the borders of the future. http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/smart-borders/docs/smart_borders_pilot_-_ executive_summary_en.pdf

Financial Times, 2016. Technology comes to the rescue in migrant crisis. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a731a50a-da29-11e5-a72f-1e7744c66818.html#axzz48Np0Kibk

Find Biometrics, 2015. Vision-Box provides biometric screening at major Schengen border. http://findbiometrics.com/vision-box-schengen-border-210233/

Frontier Strategy Group. Europe’s Migrant Crisis: What to Expect in 2016 and Beyond. http://blog.frontierstrategygroup.com/2016/06/europe/

International Monetary Fund, 2016. The Refugee Surge in Europe: Economic Challenges. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2016/sdn1602.pdf

International Organisation for Migration, 2016. Migration, Climate Change, and the Environment. http://www.iom.int/migration-and-climate-change

National Academy of Sciences, 2015. Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.full

OECD, 2015. Migration Policy Debate: How will the refugee surge affect the European economy? https://www.oecd.org/migration/How-will-the-refugee-surge-affect-the-European-economy.pdf

Politico, 2016. EU plans drone fleet to track migrants. http://www.politico.eu/article/european-union-fleet-of-drones-to-track-migrants-refugees/

PwC, 2015. The Future of Border Management: Maintaining security; facilitating prosperity. https://www.pwc.com/m1/en/publications/documents/the-future-of-border-management.pdf

Office of the United Nations Commissioner for Refugees, 1951. The 1951 Refugee Convention. http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/1951-refugee-convention.html

Office of the United Nations Commissioner for Refugees, 1967. 1967 Protocol on the Status of Refugees. http://www.unhcr.org/protection/basic/3b66c2aa10/convention-protocol-relating-status-refugees.html

Wharton, 2015. Europe’s Migrant Crisis: Balancing the Risks with Long-term Gains. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/europes-migrant-crisis-balancing-the-risks-with-long-term-gains/

World Bank, 2015. The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Labour Market. http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2016/02/09/090224b08415e3b5/3_0/ Rendered/PDF/The0impact0of00Turkish0labour0market.pdf

World Economic Forum, 2015. What can business do to help refugees? https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/10/what-can-business-do-to-help-refugees/

Managing the refugee and migrant crisis 33 www.pwc.com/crisis

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