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Sunshine Coast Council Sunshine Coast Council Area Population and Household Forecasts 2016 to 2026

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Sunshine Coast Council Sunshine Coast Council Area Population and Household Forecasts 2016 to 2026 Sunshine Coast Council Sunshine Coast Council area Population and Household Forecasts 2016 to 2026 population forecast 1 Table of contents Home 3 About the forecast areas 4 Drivers of population change 5 Population summary 8 Population, households and dwellings 10 Components of population change 12 Population and age structure 14 Household types 16 Dwellings and development 19 Population and age structure 22 Household types 56 Residential development 68 Net migration by age 71 Non-private dwellings 72 Births and deaths 74 About the forecasts 75 Factors of population change 76 Household and suburb life cycles 78 Forecast modelling process 81 Notes on base data 85 Glossary 86 2 Welcome to Sunshine Coast Council area population forecasts The Sunshine Coast Council area Population and Household Forecasts 2016 to 2026 present what is driving population change in the community and how the population, age structure and household types will change each year between 2016 and 2026. The forecasts are designed to provide community groups, Council, investors, business, students and the general public with the knowledge to make confident decisions about the future. These forecasts were last updated in December 2017 by .id, the population experts, on behalf of Sunshine Coast Council. Forecasts are available for each year from 2016 to 2026. Important Population 2016 Population 2026 Change 2016-26 Statistics 303,392 386,692 27.5% Forecast population 3 About the forecast areas The Sunshine Coast Council area includes the suburbs, townships and rural localities of Alexandra Headland, Aroona, Bald Knob, Balmoral Ridge, Battery Hill, Beerburrum, Beerwah, Belli Park, Bells Creek, Birtinya, Bli Bli, Bokarina, Booroobin, Bribie Island North, Bridges, Buddina, Buderim, Burnside, Caloundra, Caloundra West, Cambroon, Chevallum, Coes Creek, Conondale, Coochin Creek, Coolabine, Cooloolabin, Coolum Beach, Crohamhurst, Curramore, Currimundi, Diamond Valley, Dicky Beach, Diddillibah, Doonan (part), Dulong, Eerwah Vale, Elaman Creek, Eudlo, Eumundi, Flaxton, Forest Glen, Gheerulla, Glass House Mountains, Glenview, Golden Beach, Highworth, Hunchy, Ilkley, Image Flat, Kenilworth, Kiamba, Kidaman Creek, Kiels Mountain, Kings Beach, Kulangoor, Kuluin, Kunda Park, Kureelpa, Landers Shoot, Landsborough, Little Mountain, Maleny, Mapleton, Marcoola, Maroochy River, Maroochydore, Meridan Plains, Minyama, Moffat Beach, Mons, Montville, Mooloolaba, Mooloolah Valley, Mount Coolum, Mount Mellum, Mountain Creek, Mudjimba, Nambour, Ninderry, North Arm, North Maleny, Obi Obi, Pacific Paradise, Palmview, Palmwoods, Parklands, Parrearra, Peachester, Pelican Waters, Peregian Beach (part), Peregian Springs, Perwillowen, Point Arkwright, Reesville, Rosemount, Shelly Beach, Sippy Downs, Tanawha, Towen Mountain, Twin Waters, Valdora, Verrierdale, Warana, West Woombye, Weyba Downs, Witta, Woombye, Wootha, Wurtulla, Yandina, Yandina Creek and Yaroomba. Forecast areas Sunshine Coast Council area Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2026, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017. 4 Drivers of population change Development History The Sunshine Coast Council area is a rapidly growing residential and tourist area located in South East Queensland, about 100 kilometres north of Brisbane. It encompasses a total land area of about 2,200 square kilometres, including significant beaches, coastline, waterways, national parks, state forests and bushland. The area is diverse in terms of its land use and economic base with a mixture of urban areas, resort towns, tourist developments, inland towns, rural land and parkland. Tourism is a major industry with many resorts and holiday accommodation located along the coast. Much of the rural area is used for dairy farming, cattle grazing and crop growing. Although European settlement of the Sunshine Coast dates back to 1850s, significant development did not occur until the post-war years, as the area began to develop into a centre for tourism. Rapid growth took place particularly from the late 1960s when the population of the Council area increased from about 21,000 in 1947 to about 36,000 in 1971. The population has continued to increase rapidly, rising to nearly 137,000 in 1991, to about 200,000 in 2001, and then to over 267,000 in 2011, becoming one of the fastest growing Council areas in Australia. The Sunshine Coast has several significant urban hubs, concentrated predominantly on the coast at Caloundra, Kawana Waters and Maroochydore, whilst inland centres such as Nambour, Maleny and, increasingly, Beerwah, have developed primarily as commercial centres for the hinterland. Migration patterns The primary housing market role that the Sunshine Coast plays is varied: the coastal urban areas attract retirees from Brisbane and interstate (mainly New South Wales) and younger adults accessing employment (generally within tourism and the service economy); new developments close to the coast (such as Pelican Waters and Peregian Springs) and established suburban areas (such as Buderim) tend to attract older families as well as empty-nesters; and townships within the hinterland predominantly attract families and retirees from the wider rural region. The urban hubs of Maroochydore, Kawana Waters and Caloundra, and the University of the Sunshine Coast in Sippy Downs attract young people from rural areas, regional Queensland and overseas to educational and employment opportunities, while the Sunshine Coast Region as a whole loses young people to larger centres in Queensland such as Brisbane and interstate. The importance of the Sunshine Coast as a destination for families and retirees is expected to continue into the future, with migration mostly comprised of parents with young children attracted to new greenfield development areas and empty nesters and retirees attracted to coastal centres and, to a lesser degree, the rural hinterland around centres such as Maleny. These trends are driven by large new areas of housing and commercial development, particularly around Kawana Waters and the development of the Maroochydore City Centre, the ongoing development of Peregian Springs and significant greenfield opportunities in Palmview (Harmony) and Caloundra South (Aura). 5 Historical migration flows, Sunshine Coast Council area, 2011-2016 Overseas' refers to arrivals only. Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2026, prepared by .id the population experts, December 2017. Note: The migration flows depicted above do not represent future or forecast migration flows. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago”. 6 Housing role and function With a variety of residential, tourism focussed and rural areas as well as the location and development of large institutions such as the Sunshine Coast Public University Hospital (opened 2016) and the University of the Sunshine Coast, different areas within the Sunshine Coast have developed different roles within the housing market. The urban beachside areas of Marcoola - Twin Waters - Pacific Paradise, Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach, Maroochydore, and Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland are important retirement destinations as well as significant areas for tourism. Urban hubs such as Maroochydore, Caloundra - Kings Beach - Moffat Beach - Shelly Beach and Mooloolaba - Alexandra Headland have large amounts of tourist and rental accommodation attractive to retirees and young adults due to their location, relative ease of travelling to the university, employment opportunities and a growing stock of medium and high density housing. Other beachside areas such as Golden Beach, Wurtulla - Buddina & District, Pelican Waters, and areas stretching away from the coast, such as Buderim - Kuluin - Mons - Kunda Park, have a more suburban aspect which, whilst attracting significant numbers of empty-nesters and retirees, have a large stock of detached housing that appeals to families with children. This is a similar pattern to that experienced in the rural centres of Nambour, Maleny, Beerwah and Landsborough, which attract retirees from the wider region (wanting to be close to services as needs change) and families. Other rural areas such as Mapleton - Flaxton - Obi Obi, Maleny - Witta - North Maleny, Glass House Mountains - Beerburrum - Coochin Creek - Bribie Island North and Yandina - Yandina Creek & District attract large numbers of empty-nesters owing to lifestyle choice and proximity to national parks. In contrast newly developed estates in Mountain Creek (Brightwater) and Little Mountain - Caloundra West - Meridan Plains - Bells Creek (Aura) attract predominantly young families with children aged 0-9 years and first-time homebuyers. Housing Supply There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the Sunshine Coast which will have a major influence on population and household outcomes over the forecast period. Significant ‘greenfield’ opportunities have been identified in Palmwoods and Caloundra South that are expected to attract families with children and also provide affordable housing options for first-time home-buyers. Further residential development in Pelican Waters and Peregian Springs is likely to appeal to empty-nesters and retirees as well as established families who are second or third time homebuyers.
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