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US Consumer Discretionary US Consumer Discretionary Equity preferences | 15 June 2018 Chief Investment Office Americas, Wealth Management Robert Samuels, Consumer Discretionary Equity Sector Strategist Americas, [email protected], Jonathan Woloshin, CFA, Head Americas Equities, [email protected], Sally Dessloch, Head Equity Sector Strategy Americas, [email protected] Name Ticker Price Sector view: Neutral Most Preferred Strategy: Our equity strategy team recommends a Neutral allo- Amazon.com Inc. AMZN1723.86 cation to the sector as important segments of the consumer dis- D.R. Horton Inc. DHI 43.08 cretionary sector such as autos, housing, and lodging tend to per- Home Depot Inc. HD 199.67 form best early in the cycle. Also, the Federal Reserve's interest rate Hyatt Hotels Corp H 83.00 increases could become more of a headwind for these interest-rate Lowe's Cos. LOW 99.16 sensitive industries. McDonald's Corp. MCD 167.05 Meritage Homes Corp. MTH 46.00 Our positioning within the sector: We are attracted to strong Nike Inc. NKE 74.70 brands/content with pricing power and companies that are aligned Pulte Homes Inc. PHM 30.80 to the needs of the millennial consumer given the outsized impact Walt Disney Co. DIS 108.75 that this demographic will have on consumption trends for years to Bellwether List come. In addition, we look for companies with leading e-commerce Comcast Corp. (Cl A) CMCSA 33.82 and omni-channel capabilities and international exposure, particu- Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. DKS 37.40 larly within the emerging markets. Ford Motor Co F 11.89 Gap Inc. GPS 31.33 Sector Benchmark: S&P US Consumer Discretionary Index General Motors GM 43.57 Hilton Worldwide HLT 82.93 Consumer durables & apparel: Most Preferred Lennar Corp. (Cl A) LEN 53.07 Prefer to own global brands in the athletic category that are not Lions Gate Ent Class A LGF.A 25.04 overexposed to the US department store sector. Lululemon Athletica LULU 125.88 Macy's Inc. M 37.56 Consumer services: Most Preferred Marriott International Inc. MAR 138.75 Macro tailwinds should help support consumer spending and Nordstrom JWN 49.87 commodity deflation is largely helping to offset rising wage inflation Starbucks Corp. SBUX 57.02 at restaurants. Toll Brothers Inc. TOL 39.05 Retailing: Neutral Under Armour Inc. UA 21.73 We prefer off-pricers and companies that are tied to home VF Corp VFC 84.03 improvement spending. Upcoming holiday season should once Viacom Inc. (Cl B) VIA.B 28.91 again be very competitive. Williams-Sonoma WSM 60.85 Yum! Brands Inc. YUM 83.38 Automobiles & Components: Neutral Source: Bloomberg, UBS as of 14 June 2018 Economic conditions, age of fleet supportive of continued solid demand at or near current levels. Sub-sector unlikely to outperform benchmark at this stage of the cycle. This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS). Analyst certification and required disclosures begin on page 48. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. US Consumer Discretionary | Equity preferences Media: Neutral Investors continue to be very bearish on the pace of cord-cutting, the migration to skinny bundles and the shift in advertising dollars from TV to online. We prefer to own large-cap companies that possess "must-have" content and live sports programming. Consumer Durables & Apparel Have you ever wondered what is the fastest growing spectator sport in the world? The NFL? No. NBA? No. Premier League Football? Wrong again. eSports, or competitive video gaming, has taken the world by storm and is now the fastest growing spectator sports in the world. Given the demographics that eSports cater to millennials and gen Z — and the global reach of gaming, we are likely still in the very early innings of growth. Let's dig a little bit deeper into the numbers. According to a recent report by Newzoo, a market intelligence firm in eSports, games and mobile intelligence, the global eSports audience will reach 380 million in 2018. This number comprises 165 million enthusiasts and 215 mil- lion occasional viewers. Already, eSports have a larger audience than two of the major sports leagues in the United States (MLB and NHL). And eSports revenues are growing alongside viewership. According to Newzoo, the global eSports economy will grow to over USD 900 million this year, or year-over year growth of almost 40%. The major- ity of these dollars come from advertising, sponsorship, media rights and content licenses. People are watching these events both in-person and streaming online. eSports arenas in California, Las Vegas and Seoul, South Korea have all hosted sold out tournaments and events. However, the big viewership numbers come online where several million people watch through streaming services such as Amazon's Twitch. Just recently, 628,000 viewers tuned in to watch the musician Drake play the game Fortnite with several of his friends. And if you think that number is big, it's nothing compared to the almost 74 million viewers who watched the League of Legends World Championship 2017. So what are the most popular eSports games? Blizzard's Overwatch League (owned by Activision) is at the top of the list with 12 teams competing for a total prize pool of USD 3.5 million. Interestingly, these teams are branded and localized to a geographic area with team own- ership ranging from Bob Kraft (owner of the New England Patriots) to Kroenke Sports and Entertainment (owners of the Los Angeles Rams, Denver Nuggets and Arsenal FC). Players have to be at least 18 years old and salaries range from USD 50,000 to USD 150,000 — not too shabby for playing video games for a living. Other popular games include Call of Duty and League of Legends. If you have kids that play video games, there is a very good chance that they are playing Fortnite. In February, a record 3.4 million people played the game all at once and the overall user base has surpassed 45 million. While the game itself is free to download, its developer, Epic Games, is raking in the cash earning more than USD 100 million a month through in-game purchases. While Fortnite is not an eSports CIO Americas, WM 15 June 2018 2 US Consumer Discretionary | Equity preferences game yet, we can envision a league sometime in the near future given the game's popularity. For now, it is in the very early stages of eSports growth but the future is very bright. Investment implications range from video game pub- lishers and technology companies to media conglomerates looking to latch on to this new form of entertainment. So if you happen to have a 13-year old child at home who can't get away from playing video games, perhaps it's not such a bad thing at all. Just look at Tyler Blevins, a.k.a. Ninja, who is currently making USD 500,000 a month by being the most popular Fortnite player on the Twitch platform. Video games are no longer a giant waste of time. Consumer Services Within the fast food space, top-line results were somewhat mixed during the first quarter as unseasonably cool and wet weather greatly impacted results. Value continues to lead the way following McDonald's launch of its USD 1, USD 2, and USD 3 value campaign but others were quick to follow suit, which may have limited the impact from MCD's aggressive promotions. Nevertheless, customer awareness of the new menu is high and the company is excited about its prospects. Interestingly, the average check for transactions with this new dollar menu is higher than for people who don't use it. Speaking of McDonald's, the company has rolled out new fresh beef quarter pounders to all of its stores across the country. A national advertising campaign began in May and early customer feedback is positive with management noting that fresh beef cook times are faster compared to frozen beef. It will be interesting to watch how com- petitors react but we are already seeing some chains tout that their beef is always fresh. Labor pressures continue to be an important topic for restaurant man- agement teams and commentary from 1Q earnings calls made it clear that it is likely to persist throughout 2018. Commodity costs remain relatively tame with most companies continuing to guide to low sin- gle digits inflation with pockets of higher inflation in beef and pota- toes/fries. Technology and delivery remain key differentiators between the haves and have-nots within the restaurant sector. Digital loyalty programs are becoming much more sophisticated and new ordering technol- ogy is making the in-store experience that much more appealing. We highlight McDonald's, Panera and Wendy's as chains that have recently added kiosks. Finally, the benefits from delivery are actually beginning to show up in the numbers, with MCD suggesting that almost 1% of its fourth quarter US comp came from delivery sales. YUM even made a USD 200 million investment in Grubhub to expand its delivery capabilities for both Kentucky Fried Chicken and Taco Bell. CIO Americas, WM 15 June 2018 3 US Consumer Discretionary | Equity preferences Retailing With the CPI rising 0.2% in April, and now up 2.5% in the past 12 months, consumers are paying more for everything from groceries and home furnishings to clothing and rent.
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