No. 1531 April 1, 2002 BRITISH AND EUROPEAN RESPONSES TO THE PROPOSED U.S. MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ NILE GARDINER, PH.D. As the Bush Administration contemplates taking support for the United States, a reflection of the military action against Saddam Hussein’s regime in fact that the European Union resents the Bush– Iraq, the United States is looking to the British gov- Blair friendship and ernment for military, strategic, and diplomatic sup- the immense power port. President George Bush and Prime Minister wielded by the U.S.– Produced by the Tony Blair are due to hold a summit meeting in Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis British alliance. In the Institute for International Studies Crawford, Texas, on April 5–7 to discuss possible war against terrorism, joint action against Iraq in what will be one of the the EU (like the Published by most important tests of the Anglo–U.S. “special United Nations) has The Heritage Foundation relationship” since World War II. The White House been sidelined. The 214 Massachusetts Ave., NE should be fully aware of the dominant factors that EU may try to act as a Washington, DC bear upon a British commitment of military, strate- 20002–4999 peace broker in the (202) 546-4400 gic, and diplomatic support for such a war. For lead-up to a war, http://www.heritage.org example: applying pressure on • To support the U.S. position on fighting a war London and Washing- with Iraq, Blair must be convinced that such a ton to seek a negoti- war is winnable, that Saddam can be ousted, ated settlement with and that a viable opposition can then take Iraq through the U.N. This paper, in its entirety, can be power. Tony Blair faces strong opposition from It will seek to pressure found at: www.heritage.org/library/ members of his own Cabinet and the Labour Blair into acting as a backgrounder/bg1531es.html Party, the military chiefs, and much of the Brit- moderating influence ish media with respect to British participation on Washington in order to weaken what it per- in a U.S. war against Iraq. ceives as a purely English-speaking alliance. • Blair faces extreme pressure from the European Blair’s Support. Downing Street has indicated Commission and other European Union (EU) that Tony Blair is strongly considering not only full member states to stay out of such a war. Euro- support for a war against Saddam Hussein, but also pean leaders have expressed unease at Britain’s British involvement in such a war. Officials at the No. 1531 April 1, 2002 Ministry of Defence are reportedly studying feasibil- possible U.S. action against Iraq and encountered ity plans for the deployment of up to 25,000 mili- strong opposition in some quarters. Speaking at the tary personnel to take part in a possible ground summit, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder announced offensive against Baghdad. Blair understands that that Germany had abandoned its policy of “unlim- Britain’s position as a leading global power (as ited solidarity” with Washington, which had been opposed to a superpower), greatly enhanced since implemented following the events of September 11. September 11, rests heavily on its role as a partner France’s opposition to proposed U.S.–U.K. military with the United States in the “special relationship.” action is even more hostile than Germany’s, with Opposition in Parliament. The United States President Bush’s use of the term “axis of evil” draw- should be under no illusions that the New Labour ing fierce condemnation from Paris. party led by Tony Blair fully shares his pro-Ameri- Conclusion. It is highly likely that Britain will can stance. For much of its history, Labour has been join the United States in taking military action a socialist party hostile to many aspects of U.S. for- against Iraq should Saddam Hussein continue to eign policy, ranging from the bombing of Libya in pursue programs to acquire weapons of mass 1986 to the deployment of nuclear weapons on destruction, but its support is by no means certain. British soil. The Prime Minister must be convinced that a war While the Labour Party has undergone a dra- with Iraq can be won, that Saddam can be success- matic metamorphosis since Blair took over as fully removed from power, and that a stable opposi- leader, it has retained a hard rump of left-wingers tion government can take his place. Blair realizes on its back benches who are fundamentally that a flawed campaign that fails to oust Saddam opposed to the ideas of the Bush Administration. and results in large numbers of civilian casualties The vast majority of Labour Members of Parliament would lead to his own downfall within the Labour have no instinctive sympathy for U.S. foreign policy Party. He faces strong opposition within his own goals, particularly those of the current U.S. govern- government and party. He is staking his reputation ment. National missile defense, foreign aid, global on supporting the United States in an expanded warming, Israeli–Palestinian relations, and the war against terrorism, and backing off that support International Criminal Court are all areas of conten- would be seen as a major display of weakness. tion between New Labour and the current Republi- Tony Blair also will come under increasing pres- can Administration. Several Cabinet ministers have sure from the European Commission and from EU shared the concerns of left-wing Labour MPs and member states, particularly France and Germany, to have been highly critical of aspects of recent U.S. refrain from taking military action against Iraq. The policy. Over 130 MPs (most of them Labour), EU may well attempt to use its opposition to an Iraq including four Labour ex-Ministers, have signed a conflict as a vehicle for projecting its influence on House of Commons motion expressing “deep the global stage. Opposition to an Iraq war could unease” at Blair’s support for America over Iraq. also serve as a convenient rallying cry for anti- The European Reaction. Romano Prodi, Presi- Americans in the EU who resent the United States dent of the European Commission, also has for its position on a range of issues, from the Kyoto expressed concern about U.S. military action Protocol to missile defense. Thus, for the Bush against Iraq and has indicated that the EU is likely Administration, Tony Blair’s continuing support for to oppose a U.S.-led attack. Tony Blair has found the U.S. plan is growing in importance. himself increasingly isolated within Europe over his —Nile Gardiner, Ph.D., is a Visiting Fellow at The support for America. At the Barcelona EU summit Heritage Foundation. in March 2002, he failed to drum up support for NOTE: Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. No. 1531 April 1, 2002 BRITISH AND EUROPEAN RESPONSES TO THE PROPOSED U.S. MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ NILE GARDINER, PH.D. In his address to a joint session of Congress on ernment for military, strategic, and diplomatic sup- September 20, 2001, President George W. Bush port. President Bush and Prime Minister Blair are remarked that “America has no truer friend than due to hold a summit meeting in Crawford, Texas, Great Britain. Once again we are joined in a great on April 5–7 to discuss cause.” Since the terrorist attacks on New York and possible joint action Washington, Prime Minister Tony Blair has stood against Iraq in what will Produced by the “shoulder to shoulder” with the United States in the be one of the most impor- Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis war against terrorism. Britain was the first country tant tests of the Anglo– Institute for International Studies to join with America in launching military strikes U.S. “special relationship” Published by against the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the British since World War II. The Heritage Foundation Prime Minister has played an outstanding role in According to a Downing 214 Massachusetts Ave., NE helping to build the international coalition in the Street spokesman, “the Washington, DC fight against al-Qaeda. meeting will be to finalise 20002–4999 (202) 546-4400 phase two of the war There already are 1,500 British troops serving 1 http://www.heritage.org with the International Security and Assistance against terrorism.” Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, and 1,700 Royal As the summit Marines are due to be sent soon to fight alongside approaches, the Adminis- U.S. forces against the still deadly remnants of the tration would do well to Taliban and al-Qaeda. In Iraq, Royal Air Force jets keep in mind the chal- This paper, in its entirety, can be continue to patrol the no-fly zone in the northern lenges the Blair govern- found at: www.heritage.org/library/ part of the country together with their U.S. coun- ment faces in committing backgrounder/bg1531.html terparts in a display of joint force to protect the to a war with Iraq. Specifi- Kurdish minority. cally: As the Bush Administration contemplates mili- • In order to support the U.S. position on tary action against Saddam Hussein’s regime in fighting a war with Iraq, Blair must be con- Iraq, the United States is looking to the British gov- vinced that such a war is winnable, that Sad- 1. Quoted by BBC News Online, February 28, 2002. No. 1531 April 1, 2002 dam can be ousted, and that a viable must not take Britain’s military support for opposition can then take power.