Earth's Climate System

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Earth's Climate System Earth’s Climate System 2 Climate is the state factor that most strongly governs the global distribution of terrestrial A Focal Issue biomes. This chapter provides a general back- Human activities are modifying Earth’s ground on the functioning of the climate sys- climate, thereby changing fundamental con- tem and its interactions with atmospheric trols over ecosystem processes throughout the chemistry, ocean, and land. planet, often to the detriment of society. Some climatic changes subtly alter the rates of ecosys- tem process, but other changes, such as the fre- Introduction quency of severe storms have direct devastating effects on society. Climate warming, for example, Climate exerts a key control over the function- increases sea-surface temperature, which increases ing of Earth’s ecosystems. Temperature and the energy transferred to tropical storms (Fig. 2.1). water availability govern the rates of many bio- Although no individual storm can be attributed to logical and chemical reactions that in turn control climate change, the intensity of tropical storms critical ecosystem processes. These processes may increase (IPCC 2007). Other expected effects include the production of organic matter by plants, of climate change include more frequent droughts its decomposition by microbes, the weathering of in drylands such as sub-Saharan Africa, more fre- rocks, and the development of soils. Understanding quent floods in wet climates and in low-lying the causes of temporal and spatial variation in cli- coastal zones, warmer weather in cold climates, mate is therefore critical to understanding the and more extensive wildfires in fire-prone forests. global pattern of ecosystem processes. What determines the distribution of Earth’s major The amount of incoming solar radiation, the climate zones? Why is climate changing, and why chemical composition and dynamics of the atmo- do regions differ in the climatic changes they sphere, and the surface properties of Earth deter- experience? An understanding of the causes of mine climate and climate variability. The temporal and spatial variation in the climate sys- circulation of the atmosphere and ocean influ- tem facilitates predictions of the changes that are ences the transfer of heat and moisture around the likely to occur in particular places. planet and thus strongly influences climate pat- terns and their variability in space and time. This chapter describes the global energy budget and Earth’s Energy Budget outlines the roles that the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface play in the redistribution of energy The sun is the source of the energy available to to produce observed patterns of climate and eco- drive Earth’s climate system. The wavelength system distribution. of energy produced by a body depends on its F.S. Chapin, III et al., Principles of Terrestrial Ecosystem Ecology, 23 DOI 10.1007/978-1-4419-9504-9_2, © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011 24 2 Earth’s Climate System Fig. 2.1 Satellite view of Hurricane Katrina over coastal the hurricane. Climate warming is expected to increase Louisiana. This tropical storm flooded New Orleans in the frequency of severe tropical storms like Hurricane 2005, killing approximately 1,570 people and causing Katrina. Image courtesy of NOAA (http://www.katrina. $40–50 billion of damage. Human-caused ecological noaa.gov/satellite/satellite.html) changes in coastal Louisiana contributed to the impact of temperature. Because it is hot (6,000°C), the sun transmits about half of the incoming shortwave emits most energy as high-energy shortwave radiation to Earth’s surface, radiatively active radiation with wavelengths of 0.2–4.0 mm gases (water vapor, CO2, CH4, N2O and industrial (Fig. 2.2). These include ultraviolet (UV; 8% of products like chlorofluorocarbons [CFCs]) absorb the total), visible (39%), and near-infrared (53%) 90% of the outgoing longwave radiation radiation. On average, about 30% of the incom- (Fig. 2.3). Of the approximately 10% of long- ing shortwave radiation is reflected back to space, wave radiation that escapes to space, most is in due to backscatter (reflection) from clouds wavelengths where longwave absorption by the (16%); air molecules, dust, and haze (6%); and atmosphere is small (referred to as atmospheric Earth’s surface (7%; Fig. 2.3). Another 23% of windows; Fig. 2.2). The energy absorbed by radi- the incoming shortwave radiation is absorbed by atively active gases in the atmosphere is re-radi- the atmosphere, especially by ozone in the upper ated in all directions (Fig. 2.3). The portion that is atmosphere and by clouds and water vapor in the directed back toward the surface contributes to lower atmosphere. The remaining 47% reaches the warming of the planet, a phenomenon known Earth’s surface as direct or diffuse radiation and as the greenhouse effect. Without these long- is absorbed there (Trenberth et al. 2009). wave-absorbing gases in the atmosphere, the Earth also emits radiation, like all bodies, but, average temperature at Earth’s surface would be due to its lower surface temperature (about 15°C), about 33°C lower than it is today, and Earth Earth emits most energy as low-energy longwave would probably not support life, except perhaps radiation (Fig. 2.2). Although the atmosphere at hydrothermal vents in the deep ocean. Earth’s Energy Budget 25 longwave absorption by radiatively active gases and by the absorption of some incoming (short- ) 2 wave) solar radiation; it is also heated from the − m surface by non-radiative fluxes of heat that are car- ried upward by atmospheric turbulence (mixing). These include latent heat flux, where heat that evaporates water at the surface is subsequently Energy (W released to the atmosphere as air parcels rise and cool, and the water vapor condenses, forming Solar incoming radiation clouds and precipitation. There is also an upward transfer of heat that is conducted from the warm surface to the air immediately above it and then Terrestrial outgoing radiation moved upward by convection of the atmosphere as thermals (sensible heat flux). These heat sources 0510 15 20 25 Near infrared collectively sustain the longwave emission to Visible region space, as well as a large flux of longwave radiation UV from the lower atmosphere back to Earth’s surface. 1 This back radiation to the surface represents the CH4 natural greenhouse effect described earlier. 0 1 Long-term records of atmospheric gases, N2O 0 obtained from atmospheric measurements since 1 O2 and O3 the 1950s and from air bubbles trapped in glacial ptivity 0 1 ice, show large increases in the major radiatively CO 0 2 active gases (CO , CH , N O, and CFCs) since Absor 1 2 4 2 H2O the beginning of the industrial revolution 250 0 1 years ago (see Fig. 14.7). Human activities such Atmosphere 0 as fossil fuel burning, industrial activities, animal 0 510 15 20 25 husbandry, and fertilized and irrigated agriculture Wavelength (µm) contribute to these increases (see Chap. 14). As concentrations of these gases rise, the atmosphere Fig. 2.2 The spectral distribution of solar and terrestrial radiation and the absorption spectra of the major radia- traps more of the longwave radiation emitted by tively active gases and of the total atmosphere. These spec- Earth, enhancing the greenhouse effect and tra show that the atmosphere absorbs a larger proportion of increasing Earth’s surface temperature. A small terrestrial radiation than solar radiation, explaining why imbalance thus exists in the radiative flows shown the atmosphere is heated from below. Redrawn from Sturman and Tapper (1996) and Barry and Chorley (2003) in Fig. 2.3, estimated to be about 0.26% of the incoming radiation. Most of this excess energy is absorbed in the ocean, causing water to expand As a global long-term average, Earth is and sea level to rise. The warming caused by normally close to a state of radiative balance, radiative imbalance also contributes to wide- meaning that it emits as much energy back to spread melting of glaciers and ice sheets space (as longwave radiation) as it absorbs. (Greenland and Antarctica) and arctic sea ice. However, human activities are changing the com- The globally averaged annual energy budget position of the atmosphere enough to increase outlined above gives a sense of the critical factors the heat retained by the planet, as described controlling the global climate system. Regional later. Assuming balance, the longwave radiation climates, however, reflect spatial variation in emitted to space must equal the sum of the energy exchange and in lateral heat transport by solar radiation absorbed by both the surface and the atmosphere and the ocean. Earth is heated the atmosphere. The atmosphere is heated by more strongly at the equator than at the poles and 26 2 Earth’s Climate System Fig. 2.3 The average annual global energy balance dur- and absorbed longwave radiation (104 units) and ing 2000–2004 for the Earth-atmosphere system. The latent + sensible heat flux (29 units) are balanced by long- numbers are percentages of the energy received from wave emission to space (58 units) and longwave emission incoming solar radiation. At the top of the atmosphere, the to Earth’s surface (98 units). At Earth’s surface, the incom- incoming solar radiation (100 units or 341 W m−2 [global ing shortwave (47 units) and incoming longwave radiation average]) is balanced by reflected shortwave (30 units) (98 units) are balanced by outgoing longwave radiation and emitted longwave radiation (70 units). Within the (116 units) and latent + sensible heat flux (29 units). Data atmosphere, the absorbed shortwave radiation (23 units) are from Trenberth et al. (2009) rotates on an axis that is tilted relative to the plane of its orbit around the sun. Its continents are The Atmospheric System spread unevenly over the surface, and its atmo- spheric and oceanic chemistry and physics are Atmospheric Composition dynamic and spatially variable.
Recommended publications
  • Meteorology Climate
    Meteorology: Climate • Climate is the third topic in the B-Division Science Olympiad Meteorology Event. • Topics rotate annually so a middle school participant may receive a comprehensive course of instruction in meteorology during this three-year cycle. • Sequence: 1. Climate (2006) 2. Everyday Weather (2007) 3. Severe Storms (2008) Weather versus Climate Weather occurs in the troposphere from day to day and week to week and even year to year. It is the state of the atmosphere at a particular location and moment in time. http://weathereye.kgan.com/cadet/cl imate/climate_vs.html http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/me t130/notes/chapter1/wea_clim.html Weather versus Climate Climate is the sum of weather trends over long periods of time (centuries or even thousands of years). http://calspace.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/ climatechange1/07_1.shtml Weather versus Climate The nature of weather and climate are determined by many of the same elements. The most important of these are: 1. Temperature. Daily extremes in temperature and average annual temperatures determine weather over the short term; temperature tendencies determine climate over the long term. 2. Precipitation: including type (snow, rain, ground fog, etc.) and amount 3. Global circulation patterns: both oceanic and atmospheric 4. Continentiality: presence or absence of large land masses 5. Astronomical factors: including precession, axial tilt, eccen- tricity of Earth’s orbit, and variable solar output 6. Human impact: including green house gas emissions, ozone layer degradation, and deforestation http://www.ecn.ac.uk/Education/factors_affecting_climate.htm http://www.necci.sr.unh.edu/necci-report/NERAch3.pdf http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/PH_731_Milank.htm Natural Climatic Variability Natural climatic variability refers to naturally occurring factors that affect global temperatures.
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses
    Climate change and human health RISKS AND RESPONSES Editors A.J. McMichael The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia D.H. Campbell-Lendrum London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom C.F. Corvalán World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland K.L. Ebi World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Rome, Italy A.K. Githeko Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya J.D. Scheraga US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA A. Woodward University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION GENEVA 2003 WHO Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Climate change and human health : risks and responses / editors : A. J. McMichael . [et al.] 1.Climate 2.Greenhouse effect 3.Natural disasters 4.Disease transmission 5.Ultraviolet rays—adverse effects 6.Risk assessment I.McMichael, Anthony J. ISBN 92 4 156248 X (NLM classification: WA 30) ©World Health Organization 2003 All rights reserved. Publications of the World Health Organization can be obtained from Marketing and Dis- semination, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland (tel: +41 22 791 2476; fax: +41 22 791 4857; email: [email protected]). Requests for permission to reproduce or translate WHO publications—whether for sale or for noncommercial distribution—should be addressed to Publications, at the above address (fax: +41 22 791 4806; email: [email protected]). The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
    [Show full text]
  • The Definition of El Niño
    The Definition of El Niño Kevin E. Trenberth National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado ABSTRACT A review is given of the meaning of the term “El Niño” and how it has changed in time, so there is no universal single definition. This needs to be recognized for scientific uses, and precision can only be achieved if the particular definition is identified in each use to reduce the possibility of misunderstanding. For quantitative purposes, possible definitions are explored that match the El Niños identified historically after 1950, and it is suggested that an El Niño can be said to occur if 5-month running means of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W) exceed 0.4°C for 6 months or more. With this definition, El Niños occur 31% of the time and La Niñas (with an equivalent definition) occur 23% of the time. The histogram of Niño 3.4 SST anomalies reveals a bimodal char- acter. An advantage of such a definition is that it allows the beginning, end, duration, and magnitude of each event to be quantified. Most El Niños begin in the northern spring or perhaps summer and peak from November to January in sea surface temperatures. 1. Introduction received into account. A brief review is given of the various uses of the term and attempts to define it. It is The term “El Niño” has evolved in its meaning even more difficult to come up with a satisfactory over the years, leading to confusion in its use.
    [Show full text]
  • Cryosphere: a Kingdom of Anomalies and Diversity
    Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6535–6542, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6535-2018 © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Cryosphere: a kingdom of anomalies and diversity Vladimir Melnikov1,2,3, Viktor Gennadinik1, Markku Kulmala1,4, Hanna K. Lappalainen1,4,5, Tuukka Petäjä1,4, and Sergej Zilitinkevich1,4,5,6,7,8 1Institute of Cryology, Tyumen State University, Tyumen, Russia 2Industrial University of Tyumen, Tyumen, Russia 3Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Center SB RAS, Tyumen, Russia 4Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland 5Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland 6Faculty of Radio-Physics, University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia 7Faculty of Geography, University of Moscow, Moscow, Russia 8Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Correspondence: Hanna K. Lappalainen (hanna.k.lappalainen@helsinki.fi) Received: 17 November 2017 – Discussion started: 12 January 2018 Revised: 20 March 2018 – Accepted: 26 March 2018 – Published: 8 May 2018 Abstract. The cryosphere of the Earth overlaps with the 1 Introduction atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere over vast areas ◦ with temperatures below 0 C and pronounced H2O phase changes. In spite of its strong variability in space and time, Nowadays the Earth system is facing the so-called “Grand the cryosphere plays the role of a global thermostat, keeping Challenges”. The rapidly growing population needs fresh air the thermal regime on the Earth within rather narrow limits, and water, more food and more energy. Thus humankind suf- affording continuation of the conditions needed for the main- fers from climate change, deterioration of the air, water and tenance of life.
    [Show full text]
  • Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future
    Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future As more and more states are incorporating projections of sea-level rise into coastal planning efforts, the states of California, Oregon, and Washington asked the National Research Council to project sea-level rise along their coasts for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100, taking into account the many factors that affect sea-level rise on a local scale. The projections show a sharp distinction at Cape Mendocino in northern California. South of that point, sea-level rise is expected to be very close to global projections; north of that point, sea-level rise is projected to be less than global projections because seismic strain is pushing the land upward. ny significant sea-level In compliance with a rise will pose enor- 2008 executive order, mous risks to the California state agencies have A been incorporating projec- valuable infrastructure, devel- opment, and wetlands that line tions of sea-level rise into much of the 1,600 mile shore- their coastal planning. This line of California, Oregon, and study provides the first Washington. For example, in comprehensive regional San Francisco Bay, two inter- projections of the changes in national airports, the ports of sea level expected in San Francisco and Oakland, a California, Oregon, and naval air station, freeways, Washington. housing developments, and sports stadiums have been Global Sea-Level Rise built on fill that raised the land Following a few thousand level only a few feet above the years of relative stability, highest tides. The San Francisco International Airport (center) global sea level has been Sea-level change is linked and surrounding areas will begin to flood with as rising since the late 19th or to changes in the Earth’s little as 40 cm (16 inches) of sea-level rise, a early 20th century, when climate.
    [Show full text]
  • Effects of Climate Change on Sea Levels and Inundation Relevant to the Pacific Islands
    PACIFIC MARINE CLIMATE CHANGE REPORT CARD Science Review 2018: pp 43-49 Effects of Climate Change on Sea Levels and Inundation Relevant to the Pacific Islands Jerome Aucan, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), New Caledonia. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Sea level rise is a major consequence of climate change. The global sea level rise is due to a combination of the thermal expansion of the oceans (because of their warming), and an increase in runoff from the melting of continental glaciers (which adds water to the oceans). The rate of global mean sea level (GMSL) has likely accelerated during the last century, and projections predict that sea level will be 0.4 to 0.8 m higher at the end of this century around the Pacific islands. Regional variations in sea level also exist and are due to large scale current or climate features. In addition, the sea level experienced on Pacific islands can also be affected by vertical land movements that can either increase or decrease the effects of the rise in GMSL. Coastal inundations are caused by a combination of high waves, tides, storm surge, or ocean eddies. While future changes in the number and severity of high waves and storms are still difficult to assess, a rise in GMSL will cause an increase in the frequency and severity of inundation in coastal areas. The island countries of the Pacific have, and will continue to experience, a positive rate of sea level rise. This sea level rise will cause a significant increase in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in the near future.
    [Show full text]
  • Causes of Sea Level Rise
    FACT SHEET Causes of Sea OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES AT RISK Level Rise What the Science Tells Us HIGHLIGHTS From the rocky shoreline of Maine to the busy trading port of New Orleans, from Roughly a third of the nation’s population historic Golden Gate Park in San Francisco to the golden sands of Miami Beach, lives in coastal counties. Several million our coasts are an integral part of American life. Where the sea meets land sit some of our most densely populated cities, most popular tourist destinations, bountiful of those live at elevations that could be fisheries, unique natural landscapes, strategic military bases, financial centers, and flooded by rising seas this century, scientific beaches and boardwalks where memories are created. Yet many of these iconic projections show. These cities and towns— places face a growing risk from sea level rise. home to tourist destinations, fisheries, Global sea level is rising—and at an accelerating rate—largely in response to natural landscapes, military bases, financial global warming. The global average rise has been about eight inches since the centers, and beaches and boardwalks— Industrial Revolution. However, many U.S. cities have seen much higher increases in sea level (NOAA 2012a; NOAA 2012b). Portions of the East and Gulf coasts face a growing risk from sea level rise. have faced some of the world’s fastest rates of sea level rise (NOAA 2012b). These trends have contributed to loss of life, billions of dollars in damage to coastal The choices we make today are critical property and infrastructure, massive taxpayer funding for recovery and rebuild- to protecting coastal communities.
    [Show full text]
  • Global Warming Impacts on Severe Drought Characteristics in Asia Monsoon Region
    water Article Global Warming Impacts on Severe Drought Characteristics in Asia Monsoon Region Jeong-Bae Kim , Jae-Min So and Deg-Hyo Bae * Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, 209 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-Gu, Seoul 05006, Korea; [email protected] (J.-B.K.); [email protected] (J.-M.S.) * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +82-2-3408-3814 Received: 2 April 2020; Accepted: 7 May 2020; Published: 12 May 2020 Abstract: Climate change influences the changes in drought features. This study assesses the changes in severe drought characteristics over the Asian monsoon region responding to 1.5 and 2.0 ◦C of global average temperature increases above preindustrial levels. Based on the selected 5 global climate models, the drought characteristics are analyzed according to different regional climate zones using the standardized precipitation index. Under global warming, the severity and frequency of severe drought (i.e., SPI < 1.5) are modulated by the changes in seasonal and regional precipitation − features regardless of the region. Due to the different regional change trends, global warming is likely to aggravate (or alleviate) severe drought in warm (or dry/cold) climate zones. For seasonal analysis, the ranges of changes in drought severity (and frequency) are 11.5%~6.1% (and 57.1%~23.2%) − − under 1.5 and 2.0 ◦C of warming compared to reference condition. The significant decreases in drought frequency are indicated in all climate zones due to the increasing precipitation tendency. In general, drought features under global warming closely tend to be affected by the changes in the amount of precipitation as well as the changes in dry spell length.
    [Show full text]
  • Weather & Climate
    Weather & Climate July 2018 “Weather is what you get; Climate is what you expect.” Weather consists of the short-term (minutes to days) variations in the atmosphere. Weather is expressed in terms of temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility and wind. Climate is the slowly varying aspect of the atmosphere-hydrosphere-land surface system. It is typically characterized in terms of averages of specific states of the atmosphere, ocean, and land, including variables such as temperature (land, ocean, and atmosphere), salinity (oceans), soil moisture (land), wind speed and direction (atmosphere), and current strength and direction (oceans). Example of Weather vs. Climate The actual observed temperatures on any given day are considered weather, whereas long-term averages based on observed temperatures are considered climate. For example, climate averages provide estimates of the maximum and minimum temperatures typical of a given location primarily based on analysis of historical data. Consider the evolution of daily average temperature near Washington DC (40N, 77.5W). The black line is the climatological average for the period 1979-1995. The actual daily temperatures (weather) for 1 January to 31 December 2009 are superposed, with red indicating warmer-than-average and blue indicating cooler-than-average conditions. Departures from the average are generally largest during winter and smallest during summer at this location. Weather Forecasts and Climate Predictions / Projections Weather forecasts are assessments of the future state of the atmosphere with respect to conditions such as precipitation, clouds, temperature, humidity and winds. Climate predictions are usually expressed in probabilistic terms (e.g. probability of warmer or wetter than average conditions) for periods such as weeks, months or seasons.
    [Show full text]
  • Synoptic Meteorology
    Lecture Notes on Synoptic Meteorology For Integrated Meteorological Training Course By Dr. Prakash Khare Scientist E India Meteorological Department Meteorological Training Institute Pashan,Pune-8 186 IMTC SYLLABUS OF SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY (FOR DIRECT RECRUITED S.A’S OF IMD) Theory (25 Periods) ❖ Scales of weather systems; Network of Observatories; Surface, upper air; special observations (satellite, radar, aircraft etc.); analysis of fields of meteorological elements on synoptic charts; Vertical time / cross sections and their analysis. ❖ Wind and pressure analysis: Isobars on level surface and contours on constant pressure surface. Isotherms, thickness field; examples of geostrophic, gradient and thermal winds: slope of pressure system, streamline and Isotachs analysis. ❖ Western disturbance and its structure and associated weather, Waves in mid-latitude westerlies. ❖ Thunderstorm and severe local storm, synoptic conditions favourable for thunderstorm, concepts of triggering mechanism, conditional instability; Norwesters, dust storm, hail storm. Squall, tornado, microburst/cloudburst, landslide. ❖ Indian summer monsoon; S.W. Monsoon onset: semi permanent systems, Active and break monsoon, Monsoon depressions: MTC; Offshore troughs/vortices. Influence of extra tropical troughs and typhoons in northwest Pacific; withdrawal of S.W. Monsoon, Northeast monsoon, ❖ Tropical Cyclone: Life cycle, vertical and horizontal structure of TC, Its movement and intensification. Weather associated with TC. Easterly wave and its structure and associated weather. ❖ Jet Streams – WMO definition of Jet stream, different jet streams around the globe, Jet streams and weather ❖ Meso-scale meteorology, sea and land breezes, mountain/valley winds, mountain wave. ❖ Short range weather forecasting (Elementary ideas only); persistence, climatology and steering methods, movement and development of synoptic scale systems; Analogue techniques- prediction of individual weather elements, visibility, surface and upper level winds, convective phenomena.
    [Show full text]
  • Resolving Milankovitch: Consideration of Signal and Noise Stephen R
    [American Journal of Science, Vol. 308, June, 2008,P.770–786, DOI 10.2475/06.2008.02] RESOLVING MILANKOVITCH: CONSIDERATION OF SIGNAL AND NOISE STEPHEN R. MEYERS*,†, BRADLEY B. SAGEMAN**, and MARK PAGANI*** ABSTRACT. Milankovitch-climate theory provides a fundamental framework for the study of ancient climates. Although the identification and quantification of orbital rhythms are commonplace in paleoclimate research, criticisms have been advanced that dispute the importance of an astronomical climate driver. If these criticisms are valid, major revisions in our understanding of the climate system and past climates are required. Resolution of this issue is hindered by numerous factors that challenge accurate quantification of orbital cyclicity in paleoclimate archives. In this study, we delineate sources of noise that distort the primary orbital signal in proxy climate records, and utilize this template in tandem with advanced spectral methods to quantify Milankovitch-forced/paced climate variability in a temperature proxy record from the Vostok ice core (Vimeux and others, 2002). Our analysis indicates that Vostok temperature variance is almost equally apportioned between three components: the precession and obliquity periods (28%), a periodic “100,000” year cycle (41%), and the background continuum (31%). A range of analyses accounting for various frequency bands of interest, and potential bias introduced by the “saw-tooth” shape of the glacial/interglacial cycle, establish that precession and obliquity periods account for between 25 percent to 41 percent of the variance in the 1/10 kyr – 1/100 kyr band, and between 39 percent to 66 percent of the variance in the 1/10 kyr – 1/64 kyr band.
    [Show full text]
  • Earth's Energy Budgets
    Earth’s energy budgets ESE 101 2016 Global energy balance Incoming Reflected Outgoing solar radiation solar radiation longwave radiation 340 100 240 TOA Atmospheric Atmospheric Cloud reflection window effect 77 40 165 35 Clear Sky 75 Atmospheric absorption 188 23 24 88 398 345 Absorbed Reflected SH LH LW up LW down SW SW F 7.1: Earth’s global energy balance. The energy fluxes through the climate system are global averages estimated from satellite data and atmospheric reanalysis. They 2 are indicated in units of W m− . At the top of the atmosphere, the energy fluxes are 2 best constrained and have errors of order 1Wm− . The errors in surface fluxes, and 2 particularly latent heat fluxes are considerably larger, of order 10 W m− . The indicated fluxes were adjusted within the measurement errors such that the energy balance closes.1 Climate_Book October 24, 2016 6x9 Climate_Book October 24, 2016 6x9 ENERGY BALANCES AND TEMPERATURES 109 ENERGY BALANCES AND TEMPERATURES 109 Surface energy balance @Ts c ⇢ ⇤ S# L" F F div F s s @t 0 − 0 − L − S − O F 7.2: Absorbed solar radiative flux at the surface. 7.3 LATENTF AND 7.2 SENSIBLE: AbsorbedSurface HEAT solar heat radiative FLUXES fluxes: flux at the surface. bulk aerodynamic formulae F ⇤ ⇢c ⇢C v T T z (7.2) 7.3 LATENT AND SENSIBLES p HEATd k FLUXESk [ s − a( r)] assume transfer coefficient Cd equal to sensible heat and latent energy (not F ⇤ ⇢c ⇢C v T T z (7.2) necessarily true) S p d k k [ s − a( r)] assume transfer coefficient Cd equal to sensible heat and latent energy (not ⇤ necessarily true) FL ⇢LCd v
    [Show full text]