EDITORIAL Sir Lockwood Smith 3 | Editor’s letter 24 | A shameful record Joseph Silke Luke de PulfordLIES AND THE S 4 | Director’s note 26 | Data kings? Ryan Shorthouse Dr John Hemmings 5 | Letters to the Editor 27 | Collaborating with China? Isabel Hilton OBE RISKS AND RIVALS 6 | The biggest threats to the UK PIVOTAL PARTNERS Sir David Lidington CBE 29 | Good neighbours? 8 | Building Britain’s resilience Jill Rutter Sophia Gaston 30 | The Anglosphere revived? 9 | Britain entangled? James Skinner Michael Stephens 31 | Global family 10 | Terror transformed? Andrew Rosindell MPLIES AND THE S Nikita MalikLIES AND THE S 33 | The truth about trade 12 | Active threat David Henig Chris Hernon 35 | Smarter aid 13 | Back to nature? Preventing Ryan Henson pandemics 36 | Global force for good? Helen Jackson Danny Sriskandarajah 15 | Fighting fit Tobias Ellwood MP REVIEWS 16 | Disrupting disinformation 39 | Shuggie Bain Lauren Protentis By Douglas Stuart Ryan Shorthouse INTERVIEW 40 | Climate and the clash of nations 18 | Sir Alan Duncan By Daniel Yergin Contents Joseph Silke Andrew Leming 41 | A swim in a pond in the rain THE CHINESE CENTURY? By George Saunders 22 | The flickering flame of freedom Phoebe Arslanagic-Wakefield Nathan Law 42 | TV: Is Covid racist? 23 | Tilting tensions Zeenath Chowdhury

Bright Blue is the independent think tank and pressure group for liberal conservatism. UK Government Crown Copyright

Chief Executive: Ryan Shorthouse Chair: Sarah Sands Board of Directors: Rachel Johnson, Alexandra Jezeph, Diane Banks, Phil Clarke & Richard Mabey

Editor: Joseph Silke Design: Joseph Silke Cover design: Chris Solomons Interview: Sir Alan Duncan (p.18) Fighting fit: Tobias Ellwood MP (p.15) brightblue.org.uk EDITORIAL

PHOEBE ARSLANAGIC-WAKEFIELD & JOSEPH SILKE Editor’s letter Editor Joseph Silke introduces this edition

he honeymoon period of Western analyst, Chris Hernon (p.12), insists that Hono- triumph that followed the collapse we can win the fight against Vladimir Putin lulu, Dr Tof Soviet tyranny is over, with Pax and Russian aggression. John Americana challenged by a rising China Associate Fellow at Bright Blue and Hemmings (p.27), examines the case for and an increasingly multipolar world. The environmental economist, Helen Jackson creating a ‘D10’ club of the G7 plus Australia, Afghanistan fiasco has shaken the alliance (p.13), stresses the ongoing threat posed by South Korea, and India, to defend against of free nations, so now is the moment to zoonotic diseases, and that failing to respect digital authoritarianism. take stock of the United Kingdom’s position. nature could lead to another Covid-19. Journalist, broadcaster, and China expert, Long past its imperial glory, Britain still Chair of the Defence Committee, Tobias Isabel Hilton OBE (p.27), argues that struggles to determine its place among the Ellwood MP (p.15), warns that the UK’s despite our differences, China remains an international community, as the rancour shrinking military capability leaves us indispensable partner for tackling global over Brexit shows. The Defence Secretary, vulnerable as our threats multiply and problems like the climate crisis. Ben Wallace, has conceded that the UK is grow in strength, and undermines our Senior Research Fellow at UK in a not a superpower, but the country has an relationships with key allies. Changing Europe, Jill Rutter (p.29), writes active role to play on the world stage. The National security and communications that the UK and the European Union need a Government has called this role ‘Global expert, Lauren Protentis (p.16), cooling off period after Brexit and to build a Britain’ – but what does that really mean? explains how techniques developed for more constructive working relationship. After the publication of the Integrated counterterrorism purposes can also be Chief Executive of CANZUK International, Review earlier this year, this magazine applied in the fight against disinformation James Skinner (p.30), makes the case for brings together defence, security, and campaigns. greater ties between Canada, Australia, New foreign policy experts to answer the tough Our interview is with the former Minister Zealand, and the UK to increase prosperity questions about Britain’s strengths and of State for Europe and the Americas and in all four nations. vulnerabilities in 2021 and beyond. deputy to Boris Johnson at the Foreign Chair of the Commonwealth APPG, Opening Centre Write is an essay by Sir Office,Sir Alan Duncan (p.20). We discuss Andrew Rosindell MP (p.31), insists that David Lidington CBE (p.6), the former de whether ‘Global Britain’ is a sufficient foreign the Commonwealth deserves more respect facto Deputy Prime Minister, who outlines policy, the Government’s record on LGBT and has been neglected. the main security threats facing the UK and issues and Covid-19, and his infamous diary. Director of the UK Trade Policy Project, how we can overcome them. Hong Kong pro-democracy activist, David Henig (p.33), relays the truth about Director of the British Foreign Policy Nathan Law (p.22) urges us to see China’s trade, that non-tariff barriers have become Group, Sophia Gaston (p.8), argues that crackdown in the former British colony as a the biggest obstacles to free exchange. building Britain’s resilience to threats will warning sign to the world. Chief Executive of the Coalition for require a whole-of-society approach with Former High Commissioner from Global Prosperity, Ryan Henson (p.35), social cohesion at home. New Zealand to the United Kingdom, Sir argues that foreign aid is a critical soft Associate Fellow at Bright Blue, Michael Lockwood Smith (p.23) encourages the power tool that can improve lives as well as Stephens (p.9), writes about Britain’s UK to see the Asia-Pacific as the new land of project our values. enduring entanglement with the Middle economic opportunity, as well as where to Finally, Chief Executive of Oxfam GB, East, which means we cannot afford to compete with China. Danny Sriskandarajah (p.36) claims that withdraw our engagement with the region. Co-founder of the Coalition for Genocide the UK’s international deeds do not match Counterterrorism and extremism expert, Response, Luke de Pulford (p.24) its ambition, and calls for more action on Nikita Malik (p.11), sets out how the threat denounces the UK Government’s record vaccines and climate aid. from terrorism has evolved in recent years on genocide as unworthy of a country that since the War on Terror began. claims to stand up for human rights. Joseph Silke is the Communications Officer Leading Russia and disinformation Associate Professor at the DKI-APCSS in at Bright Blue

3 EDITORIAL

SAM SMETHERS Director’s note Despite the own goal in Afghanistan, the West can still win, argues Ryan Shorthouse

oming of age around the turn of the American-led assertiveness over world Foreign millennium, it seemed the American- affairs in the past decade or so. Yanis Affairs Cled advance of freedom – at home Varoufakis, the socialist former Greek Committee, and abroad – would march on forever. finance minister, gloated: “Liberal-neocon was right: “We Then there was September 11, as imperialism is defeated once and for all.” are swapping patient planes crashed into the heart of Western Those arguing that the US and its friends achievement for a second fire and a second civilisation, the Twin Towers collapsing, and are always the evil oppressors, intervening war.” The civil war is likely to intensify: the sending tsunamic dust clouds around the in countries for no good reason, other than Taliban will fight various rebels, from the corridors of Manhattan. Hearing the news for dollars and domination – will soon find even more extreme ISIS-K, responsible for on the car radio is a vivid memory: I stared out who the real oppressors are. The women the recent terrorist attack at Kabul Airport, out the passenger window at the pine trees and girls we have left behind – educated, to the more moderate National Resistance in the distance. The shadows beneath them working, leading, after two decades of allied Front, based in Panjshir. seemed to grow longer. presence - will soon tell us that. As Rory Stewart, the former International The Bush Administration announced a Khaled Hosseini’s bestselling semi- Development Secretary pointed out, new War on Terror, making no distinction autobiographical book, The Kite Runner, there were ten times as many soldiers between those who commit and harbour hauntingly depicts life in the 1990s under in South Korea this year as there were terrorism, starting America’s longest war in the Taliban: “Two Talibs with Kalashnikovs in Afghanistan just before the total Afghanistan. slung across their shoulders helped the withdrawal. If there can be a continuing Crucially, though, the number of blindfolded man from the first truck and presence there 70 years after the Korean democracies worldwide has continued to two others helped the burqa-clad woman. War, why not in Afghanistan? Even before rise this century. Terrorism – though more The woman’s knees buckled under her and the Doha Agreement between Trump and suicidal and indiscriminate – kills fewer she slumped to the ground. The soldiers the Taliban in 2020, there was a relatively people than in the past. The Chinese and pulled her up and she slumped again. When low deployment of allied troops and low Russian regimes act belligerently towards they tried to lift her again, she screamed and casualties among our soldiers. NATO-lite us, but are tamed by their reliance on a kicked. I will never, as long as I draw breath, was keeping the Taliban at bay. globalised, capitalist economy. forget the sound of that scream. The debate in Britain on foreign policy So, is the West – and its values - really “It was the cry of a wild animal trying has been dominated by the merits or in retreat? A commonplace argument is to pry its mangled leg free from the bear otherwise of militarily intervening in a that liberalism was over-optimistic and trap. Two more Talibs joined in and helped country, but it strikes me that the bigger overreached. A ‘communitarian correction’ force her into one of the chest-deep holes. impact on the stability of a fragile state in domestic politics followed, where our The blindfolded man, on the other hand, often flows from when allied forces actually politicians have finally recognised – after the quietly allowed them to lower him into the leave a country. If we do so prematurely, the unexpected EU referendum result – stronger hole dug for him. Now only the accused consequences are dire: as they were when public appetite, among all social groups, for pair’s torsos protruded from the ground. President Obama did so in Iraq in the early security over freedom. There is little public A chubby, white-bearded cleric dressed in 2010s, when ISIS subsequently thrived. enthusiasm for military adventurism abroad grey garments stood near the goalposts It is a long road fraught with setbacks, anymore, saving lives, and repairing nations. and cleared his throat into a handheld but – slowly but surely – the West really The sudden, sometime chaotic, microphone. Behind him the woman in is winning. The full withdrawal from departure of allied military and diplomatic the hole was still screaming. He recited a Afghanistan was an own goal, conceding personnel from Afghanistan, unnecessarily lengthy prayer from the Koran, his nasal defeat when success was being secured. handing victory and power back to the voice undulating through the sudden ghastly Taliban, is for some a standout breath of the stadium’s crowd.” Ryan Shorthouse is the Chief Executive symbol of the escalating deterioration of I fear Tom Tugendhat, the Chair of the of Bright Blue

4 EDITORIAL Letters to the Editor

Submit your letters to [email protected]

Regarding John Cope’s piece (‘Ditching disadvantage’, Spring 2020), anyone who has dealt with university admissions knows of the advantages of the middle-class applicants: music lessons, dance and drama classes, sports, foreign travel, additional language tuition, and so on. Two reforms would benefit those without these, with university entrance, and help the wider ‘levelling up’ agenda. An expansion in extra-curricular activities would keep schools open until 6pm on weekdays and for parts of the weekend. These could be available to the community as well as pupils, and expand the basic offering of the National Curriculum. A revival and expansion of the House system that withered with the growth of comprehensive schools, named to reflect the ethnicity of the catchment area (Seacole, Mandela, Kumar, Joshi, Yousafzai, and so on), could provide pupils with positions of responsibility, offer non-academic competition, and give a framework for community service and the support of charities.

Dr Catherine M. S. Alexander | Bright Blue member

Kwasi Kwarteng’s piece (‘Green growth’, Spring 2021)

offers a comprehensive view of the Government’s current Ana Tavares and planned climate policy, combining recovery from the pandemic with the need for climate leadership ahead of COP26. While Kwarteng rightly highlighted the poor air quality’s effects on vulnerable communities, he understates the potential impact of policy measures on these groups. Dr Tim Bradshaw’s piece (‘Unleashing universities’, Spring Rising energy costs threaten to hit many households hard, and 2021) highlights the potential universities offer for levelling the costs of making sustainable upgrades to homes are simply up. The process by which UK universities commercialise their unaffordable for many people. This is especially true after research is an area of potential improvement. US institutions the Government scrapped the Green Homes Grant in March. negotiating with potential spin-offs typically demand a lower The challenge for businesses of balancing competitiveness share of equity, lower revenue royalties and lower intellectual with sustainability could result in costs being passed to the property licence fees than European counterparts, fostering consumer. The Government faces a tough challenge to protect a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship. Government the most vulnerable from the costs of the transition to a investment in research could be more beneficial to the wider greener economy and society. economy if we were willing to consider this model.

John Walter | Bright Blue member Henry Yates | Bright Blue member

5 ESSAY The biggest threats to the UK Following the withdrawal from Afghanistan, Sir David Lidington CBE outlines how the UK can nagivate the changing geopolitical landscape

Royal Navy

he political shock of the West’s defeat nations to follow. their strategic objectives. The Belt and in Afghanistan has hammered home Second, the United States is questioning Road extends China’s strategic as well as Tthe truth that we can no longer take its own international priorities. ‘America its commercial influence. Russia deploys for granted some of the key assumptions First’ is a slogan associated with Donald troops in Georgia, Crimea and Transnistria; that have underpinned much of the public Trump, but the idea predates his presidency. mercenaries in the Donbass, Syria and Libya; and parliamentary thinking about our President Obama insisted that Britain cyberattacks, economic muscle, information country’s security. and France had to take responsibility for warfare, and cultural organisations to First, the international order established leading allied action in Libya, and now advance its interests. after the end of the Cold War and collapse President Biden has decided to stick with of the Soviet Union is visibly and rapidly his predecessor’s commitment to a speedy [US] allies, especially those in fraying. withdrawal from Afghanistan, with scant “Europe, including the UK, are Putin’s Russia occupies parts of Georgia regard paid to the views of coalition expected to spend more on and Ukraine, seeks to subvert democracy partners. their own security and take in Eastern and Central Europe and has used This is not isolationism, but rather a both radiological and chemical weapons to ruthless focus on those things that matter responsibility for leadership kill people in the United Kingdom. most to US interests. Allies, especially those China not only rails against the ‘unequal in Europe, including the UK, are expected to Fourth, there is no longer any treaties’ imposed on it during its period spend more on their own security and take demarcation line between domestic and of weakness in the nineteenth century responsibility for leadership in regions like international security. The Salisbury attack – about which it has a reasonable point – Africa and the Balkans, which are a lesser was the most stark recent illustration of but also exults in the erosion of Western priority for Washington. this, but any chief constable will tell you influence and presents its own system of Third, it is becoming more difficult to that there is now almost no serious and authoritarian rule coupled with the ruthless define a neat boundary between peace organised crime that lacks an international use of surveillance technology to identify and conflict. Our adversaries deploy hard dimension. Digital communications enable and suppress dissent as a model for other and soft power together to promote the transfer across continents of extremist

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>> doctrines, laundered money, and Communist Party’s treatment of Jack Ma, armed forces and intelligence agencies and nuclear and biological know-how. and now of China’s online education sector, their relationships with US counterparts and Our security is threatened by criminal shows that it cares little about individual also showing that the UK can be effective enterprises, from terrorists to cyber-gangs companies. Rather the challenge is whether, in convening and leading groups of allies to drug and people traffickers, which are by mid-century, the UK, the US or any other to defend Western, including American, every bit as professional and well-organised democracy will have any choice other than interests through both diplomatic and as any legitimate transnational business. to rely on Chinese suppliers of advanced military means. As I learned when in government, criminal telecoms, robotics, or AI. The UK is a European power with global gangs may also have close connections So, what is to be done? We face hard interests and a global outlook. We should with hostile states and serve, in effect, as choices. The UK will need to modernise its work more with countries like Japan, surrogates for them. hard power – spend more on robots, drones, Australia, and South Korea, but also build a cyber, and space – and maintain, rather than new strategic security relationship with our Any chief constable will cut, our soft power capabilities like our aid European neighbours. Some of that can be “ tell you that there is now programme and the British Council. done through NATO, for example through almost no serious and Alliances and international institutions the UK’s leadership of the Northern Group. organised crime that lacks an can amplify Britain’s influence, but there will Outside NATO, the E3 diplomatic network still be limits to what we can do. of UK, France, and Germany has continued international dimension The Government’s Integrated Review, to function well throughout the travails of The biggest threats to the UK published earlier this year, identified Brexit. Fifth, our security will depend in large technology as key to our security interests. part on whether the democratic world We now need the leadership and the An effective set of security can renew its capacity for innovation and difficult, detailed work to turn its ambitions “ relationships with our technological advance. China is openly for a new technological revolution into a European neighbours is an aiming for a leading position in all the key strategic plan to implement the necessary integral part of Global Britain, twenty-first century technologies, from policy reforms on education, skills, and synthetic biology to quantum computing, industrial development. not an alternative to it by 2025. It aspires to global dominance We have to keep persuading the US in those markets by the centenary of the that it should continue to see the security Alongside our bilateral relationships communist revolution in 2049, with the of Europe, including the UK, as a vital we will need to rebuild a strategic security geopolitical clout that that would give. This national interest of the American people. relationship with the EU as an institution. is not about Huawei or TikTok – the Chinese That means maintaining the quality of our Even France and Germany seek to influence and are in turn influenced by European Union decisions. The EU has responsibilities under its treaties for police and justice cooperation, for data sharing, sanctions policy, and a lot of soft power capability – from development spending to police and military training. An effective set of security relationships with our European neighbours is an integral part of Global Britain, not an alternative to it. I hope that defeat in Afghanistan will spur a willingness to make a reality of the vision embodied in the Integrated Review and make the hard policy choices that that will entail. We have no time to waste.

The Rt Hon Sir David Lidington is the UK Government Chair of the Royal United Services Institute

7 RISKS AND RIVALS

VICTORIA ATKINS MP Building Britain’s resilience Strength abroad requires cohesion at home, argues Sophia Gaston

hen the UK Government resolve of communities. Social cohesion us to published its long-awaited and the strength of the contract between break WIntegrated Review of Defence, citizens and their political institutions down Security, Development, and Foreign Policy are the bedrock of a well-functioning the hard earlier this year, the frequency with which democracy, and also the necessary walls we have the word ‘resilience’ featured in the 114 precondition to undertake bold actions on established between our domestic and pages of sprawling analysis was especially the world stage. international policy. Foreign policy had striking. long been considered outside the realm The terminology of resilience reflects Cohesion and the strength of of everyday ‘ballot box’ concerns, and a risk perception framework that extends “the contract between citizens therefore there seemed to be no need to well beyond the traditional understanding and their political institutions engage with the British people on this of national security. It is responding to an are the bedrock of a well- subject. Our international policies were awareness that the threats we face as a forged with an eye to our global partners nation are rapidly evolving – infiltrating functioning democracy and rivals, focused on the projection of our our economy, our democracy, and our power and influence, and the defence of society. Although primary responsibility It says something about the moment the realm – with little consideration given for managing these risks will lie with the we are living in that this whole-of-society to the health and social fabric of the nation. Government, all citizens, businesses, and approach to resilience is back on the Foreign policy was conducted in an abstract institutions will need to play a role in agenda. A period of sustained economic space of global diplomacy and international defending our sovereignty. prosperity, mediated by the War on institutions, and citizens’ scepticism, The notion of building resilience from Terror, and then derailed by the financial mistrust or discomfort with our foreign the ground up is by no means unique. crisis, has given way to a period of policy choices was held up as proof to justify It is a concept that has taken root fragility and dysfunction in advanced their estrangement. in periods of existential threats, democracies. Social and demographic whether the Second World War change, intergenerational conflict, Authoritarian nations have or the Cold War that followed in globalisation, and economic “ become increasingly risk- its wake. Both the Allies and dislocation have destabilised liberal tolerant and have sought the Axis powers during nations from within. At the same time, to more confidently the Second World War authoritarian nations have become investigated ways to target increasingly risk-tolerant and impose their ideologies civilians outside of the have sought to more confidently battlefield – considering the impose their ideologies within The past five years have made clear that health of citizens’ morale at their regional neighbourhoods such an approach is now unsustainable. home central to the framework and inside global institu- Citizens have a stake in foreign policy of political and military tions. This combination choices and expenditure, and are a crucial decision-making. The UK’s Mass of escalating and underpinning of the legitimacy with Observation project closely fragmenting internal which Britain can pursue its international monitored citizens’ mental and external threats ma objectives. health and wellbeing, and feel overwhelming, but The British Foreign Policy Group’s aerial bombardment tackling these risks together in research makes clear that citizens’ interest on both sides was a more holistic way will be the in foreign policy has been increasing often motivated by a best route to overcoming them. exponentially since the EU referendum, mission to break the The resilience agenda requires and attitudes on international affairs are

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>> now an expression of domestic social appointing former National Security Advisor resilience is non-negotiable in an age of and political identities. This question about and diplomat Susan Rice as Director of grey-zone warfare and must extend beyond Building Britain’s resilience how best to balance openness and security the Domestic Policy Council. His American incidental policy alignment. It will require is one of the most essential challenges of Jobs Plan clearly sets out the centrality of a fundamental shift in how we organise governance in the twenty-first century, and domestic social and economic reform to the government and an embedded monitoring our international role will be most effective nation’s competitiveness against a rising and assessment process to ensure that if it is backed by a strong foundation of China, and he promotes a foreign and trade policy choices reinforce, not undermine, one public consent. policy that delivers ‘for the middle class’. As another. Our voice on the world stage will The UK Government is not alone in in Westminster, there has been a reckoning be more powerful and persuasive if built on seeking to bring together its domestic about the fragility of domestic political the foundation of a prosperous, cohesive, and international renewal projects. US mandates and the need to bring citizens and inclusive society at home. President Joe Biden is also on a mission to along for the ride in order to justify and integrate foreign and domestic policy – strengthen a moral mission in the world. Sophia Gaston is the Director of the British both substantively and conceptually – by The fusion of domestic and international Foreign Policy Group

SUSAN HALL AM Britain entangled? We cannot afford to withdraw from the Middle East, writes Michael Stephens

he United Kingdom’s relationship mental, fiscal, and military space to focus on 250,000 with the Middle East region is one the great geopolitical game of the day. British Tthat is chequered by colonialism In recent months, London has been expats that and repeated military interventions, but trumping its own Indo-Pacific tilt, stressing reside across also a deep familiarity which today is the importance of the region as a large the Gulf. Only Australia both romanticised and abhorred in equal potential trading bloc. However, while has a larger number of working-age British amounts. Washington may be able to afford to pick nationals. Alongside the United States, the UK has and choose what parts of the world it can Direct British control ended in the deployed its military into the Middle East be interested in, the UK does not have such 1970s, but the famous saying goes that countless times since the end of the Cold luxuries. Britain may be an island, but its London “left through the front door, and War. It supported the US-led War on Terror, geography and history link it closely to the returned through the back window.” Large and Tony Blair and David Cameron sent Middle East, whether its policymakers want investments in British real estate, as well British armed forces to force regime change it or not. as Britain’s need for hydrocarbons, have in Iraq and Libya, and dabbled in regime meant that the two sides have never really change in Syria. All the while propping Britain may be an island, separated. up monarchies in the Arab Gulf States “ but its geography and Although the US is tiring of conflicts with armaments, and large-scale forward history link it closely to the abroad, in less prosperous areas of the deployments of troops and logistical region, large ungoverned spaces still exist, material. Middle East, whether its providing safe haven for militants alongside However, these days it is common to talk policymakers want it or not offshoots of Isis and Al Qaeda. The impact of about a US-led retreat from the Middle East the Covid-19 pandemic on almost all Middle as it turns eastward to face a rising China. British influencers take selfies in Dubai; Eastern states has been severe, with only The hope being that they will eventually lawyers and bankers run successful branch the tiny gas rich state of Qatar showing any disentangle US interests from the chronic operations in Doha and Abu Dhabi; and, the real signs of returning to economic growth instability and conflict that exist in many British Armed Forces train in bases in Oman, in the coming year. parts of the region; thereby freeing up the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, alongside another Meanwhile, ongoing wars in Syria,

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>> Yemen, and Libya continue to bubble away without solution, providing havens for extremist organisations, and sustaining an arena of competition between external actors, both international and regional, who are all intent on forcing their various agendas upon these broken polities. Additionally, the ever-present threat of escalation between Israel and Iran, and the ongoing tension surrounding the latter’s Alisdare Hickson nuclear enrichment programme mean that the UK must stay engaged with three competing pillars of foreign policy - values is always a challenge, but in the regional security. Unless London wishes security, prosperity and values - it is security Middle East these three pillars of foreign to do the unthinkable and rescind its UN considerations that will win out above the policy are challenged more keenly than P5 Security Council status, or walk away others, closely followed by prosperity, with almost anywhere else in the world. To be from the E3 grouping it shares with France values sadly bringing up the rear. a genuinely Global Britain, London must and Germany, Iran will remain of high The Arab uprisings which engulfed decide how and in what ways it can muddle importance and necessitate continued the region in 2011, and the subsequent through the Middle East’s unstable politics, engagement. uprisings in Sudan, and Algeria in 2019, while retaining a healthy return on its demonstrate that ignoring questions of military and financial investments. It is likely British control ended in the governance, human rights, and the fair to involve a constant balancing act between “1970s, but the famous saying application of justice only leads to wider ambition and necessity. goes that London “left through stability and security issues in the long The UK may well have to accept that the front door, and returned run. The cut in UK overseas aid from 0.7% China’s authoritarian non-interventions to 0.5% of Gross National Income will only appear more attractive to regional actors through the back window compound the problem. Inevitably the UK than the hyper interventionist liberalism of will be seen as a more transactional and the West. The outcome of this is that security emotionally disengaged actor that cares issues emanating from the Middle East little for the wellbeing of the region and its Michael Stephens is a Senior Fellow at region are likely to remain prevalent for peoples. the Foreign Policy Research Institute and an years to come. This means that among the Balancing security, prosperity, and Associate Fellow of Bright Blue

MIATTA FAHNBULLEH Terror transformed? Nikita Malik sets out how the threat from terrorism is evolving

he year 2017 was a pivotal one in review their assessments and actions. It is illustrating the impact of terrorism Partly due to the popularity of magazines true that Ton UK soil, with five serious terrorist such as Islamic State’s Dabiq, terrorist some of attacks taking place in quick succession. attacks have become increasingly low grade the attacks in Immediately following the attacks, in and high impact. Attacks involved materials 2017 were linked which 36 lives were lost, MI5 and Counter that could be found at home, magazines to, and claimed by, the global terrorist Terrorism Policing launched a number of that could be downloaded online, and made organi-sation Islamic State. Yet with Islamic reviews to identify what was known about use of spaces that were becoming more State claiming attacks without any on the the attackers prior to each attack, and to difficult to monitor. ground training, it has become more difficult

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right-wing radicalisation. Prevent figures show that in the last year alone, 1,387 people were referred to the programme due to concerns related to right-wing radicalisation, and – concerningly – more than one in ten terror suspects arrested in Britain were children. The scale of the threat has meant that systems and processes in the United Kingdom have needed to focus inwardly to prevent terrorist incidents. This has often been through measures such as Terrorism Prevention and Investigation Measures (TPIMs), increased use of stop and search powers, and making terrorism sentencing longer to deter attacks. An inward focus has also meant altering Cathy Wang systems and processes to protect critical >> to ascertain whether attacks by these Islamic State. Data reveals that from 1998 infrastructure. For example, temporary so-called ‘lone wolves’ were actually to 2015, 72% of Islamist-inspired terrorism physical security barriers were installed directed by or simply inspired by the group. offenses were committed by UK nationals or on eight central London bridges by the While hundreds of British nationals left individuals holding dual British nationality. Metropolitan Police Service, following the the UK to join Islamic State in Syria, MI5 was During the same period, 56% of individuals 2017 terrorist attacks on Westminster Bridge aware of more than 43,000 people who linked to one or more proscribed terrorist and London Bridge. These were intended remained in the country and continued to organisations were directly linked to the to stop cars from mounting the pavement pose a potential terrorist threat to the UK. UK-based group al-Muhajiroun, 24% were and thus disrupt attacks that sought to use These included frustrated travelers who linked to al-Qaeda, and only 11% were vehicles in pedestrian areas. were unable to, or were prevented from, linked to the Islamic State. Two further changes will affect the travelling abroad. At times, these individuals The ‘homegrown’ threat has been further impact of international terrorism on attempted to commit plots from the United bolstered by the growing presence of homegrown attacks. First, and most Kingdom instead. This created a situation nationalist, far-right movements. Right-wing obviously, is the relative reduction in the where the UK’s ‘homegrown’ threat was extremism is often described as the fastest power of international terrorist groups difficult to distinguish from the presence of growing threat to the UK, including by the like Islamic State. Second is the growth a charismatic and dangerous international country’s most senior counter-terrorism of extremism online, due partly to the movement. officer. Unlike Islamist-related terrorism, the Covid-19 pandemic, where people have far-right threat involves individuals who increasingly spent time indoors on their From 1998 to 2015, 72% of have less interest in travelling abroad. It is computers. “ Islamist-inspired terrorism therefore harder to catch these individuals The national threat level for international offenses were committed by at airports and use prevention methods terrorism is set and assessed by the Joint UK nationals or individuals such as the removal of passports. Terrorism Analysis Centre, and – until 2018 Moreover, while the far-right have made – did not include domestic extremism in holding dual British nationality their presence known online, cloaking its threat assessments. The inclusion of rhetoric in nationalism can mean that right-wing extremism, as well as other, Is the international link to contemporary their extremism and hate-based content is non-ideological extremism in ‘homegrown’ terrorism therefore overblown? Unlike harder to moderate than the symbols and threats will be increasingly important as the other countries, the United Kingdom is language used by Islamist groups. international terrorism threat ebbs. unique in its ‘homegrown’ threat, due to the Nonetheless, in 2020, the largest number history of its own extremist groups, such as of referrals to the Government’s Prevent Nikita Malik is an expert in counter- Al-Muhajiroun, that predated the growth of programme were for concerns regarding terrorism and extremism

11 RISKS AND RIVALS

VICTORIA ATKINS MP Active threat We can win the fight against Russian aggression, insistsChris Hernon

here may be no public declaration President Biden stated he would waive running of war, but it is clear that liberal sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline a vast, Tdemocracies are in conflict with project, Putin pounced immediately and well- Putin-ruled Russia. The answer to how we announced that Ukraine remaining a transit funded deal with Russian aggression starts with country for Russian gas depended on it propaganda accepting this grim fact. showing “goodwill”. In other words, a nation machine based in Western countries Constant conflict with liberal that has had Crimea stolen from it and has pretending to be ‘alternative’ media; co- democracies is one of the main pillars of lost thousands of people fighting a bitter opting Western politicians and other figures the Putin regime’s domestic rule, and an trench war against forces controlled, led, to spread Kremlin-friendly messages and integral part of its foreign-policy worldview. manned, armed, and supplied by Russia has influence; bombing hospitals to prop up Putin does not share the Western vision to show “goodwill” for the Kremlin to not the evil Assad regime in Syria; and, hacking of a Europe at peace, and is not going to wreak further damage to its economy. government systems. The list of hostile and stop attacking and undermining Western damaging acts is growing as efforts never countries. Putin and his gang of KGB thugs Putin’s claim of entitlement cease. see any attempt at conciliation as weakness “ to a ‘sphere of influence’ is However, we can push back. Doing and an encouragement for whatever highly offensive to nations that so robustly gives the Kremlin pause for destructive and murderous acts they are lived for decades with the thought. Ukrainians, for example, rallied currently committing. as a nation and fought back against the The dangers of appeasement were Soviet jackboot on their necks Russian-instigated ‘civil war’. Although it has made horrifyingly clear by Belarusian cost them dearly, it has averted the possible President Lukashenko’s Nord Stream 2 is entirely a geopolitical end of Ukraine as a country. UK support has outrageous air piracy, forcing weapon for the Putin regime, designed helped, but we must do more to make it down an EU flight to arrest to further undermine Ukraine’s dream plain to Putin that it’s not in his interests to an opposition figure. He was of building a Western-style state prevent Ukraine from choosing to follow a later displayed on TV showing and economy, as well as to increase Western path. obvious signs of his brutal leverage over other European states. treatment to make a Ukrainians rightly see the US move Those who profit from being false ‘confession’, as a betrayal. Western countries “close to Putin, who finance his reminiscent of should be extremely concerned aggression against us, should Stalin’s times. It’s about the further power such not be free to enjoy the fruits unlikely that Putin a move would place in Putin’s didn’t approve this hands. It should be stopped. of the system they undermine move, and indeed Attempting to murder when asked at an ex-intelligence officer Putin’s claim of entitlement to a the St Petersburg on the streets of the ‘sphere of influence’ is highly offensive to Economic Forum United Kingdom with a nations that lived for decades with the if Russia might nerve agent; constantly Soviet jackboot on their necks. They are do the same to trying to encourage independent nations, who do not want to capture opposition political division on live under brutal authoritarian and corrupt figures again, his social media and regimes. The West must be confident about answer was far from a with actual agents sending our forces to reassure them, and definite ‘no’. infiltrating parties make it plain to the Kremlin that we will not Similarly, when Russian Defence Ministry and organisations; abandon these nations to its mercy.

12 RISKS AND RIVALS

>> Moreover, we must reject Russia’s claims response to the heinous act in Salisbury propagandists who spew anti-Western that NATO is encircling and threatening it for startled the Kremlin with its display of rhetoric from Russians’ TV screens prefer to Active threat the baseless and cynical propaganda they Western unity and resolve. spend their time in London. This must end. are. The idea that the West would attack or Sanctions do work, over time. In addition, It is uncomfortable to face the fact that invade Russia is laughable, and we should dubious Russian money, often acquired at we are in a conflict without a foreseeable say so loudly. the expense of ordinary Russians, should end, but it is a fact nonetheless. As Theresa May, when she was not be welcomed in the West. Those who Recognising it is the first step in not Prime Minister, showed over the Skripal profit from being close to Putin and who losing the fight. assassination attempt, when we do act finance his aggression against us should with purpose and in concert, we can not be free to enjoy the fruits of the system Chris Hernon is a leading Russia and show the Kremlin we mean business. they undermine, by sending their children disinformation analyst and a former journalist Her Government’s work to unite allies in to study and party here. Even Russian for the BBC Monitoring service

ROBIN MAYNARD Back to nature? Preventing pandemics Helen Jackson stresses the ongoing threat posed by zoonotic diseases

iven the suffering and economic to examine where novel viruses come from mitiga- damage of the past year, citizens in the first place — and act to stop them ting Gacross the world have every right to at source. To do this, pandemic prevention the risk of expect their governments to respond to the must be informed by the ecology of novel virus Covid-19 pandemic with meaningful plans zoonotic disease emergence. emergence needs to to prevent future pandemics. In truth, the call for a new treaty be recognised internationally for No doubt governments have learned recognises this, describing the need for a what it is — a major global public good. many lessons on how to limit the spread ‘One Health’ approach that “connects the One of the main messages of the recent of viruses, urgently procure medical health of humans, animals, and our planet”. government-commissioned Dasgupta equipment, and develop affordable While the source of the SARS-CoV-2 virus Review into the Economics of Biodiversity vaccines. Recognising that international outbreak is still unknown, close relatives is that natural ecosystems underpin cooperation is key, a group of Presidents to the virus have been found in bat human welfare in a variety of ways. But the and Prime Ministers — including Boris populations in Southeast Asia. Zoonotic economic system, left to its own devices, Johnson and Emmanuel Macron — have diseases first recorded in humans over the will underinvest in these assets because called for a new international treaty for past 70 years include Zika fever, Ebola, AIDS, they provide public goods. Markets are pandemic preparedness and response. and Nipah virus infection. very good at delivering goods and services Ecologists believe potential hotspots for which benefit individuals with the desire The role intact natural emerging infectious disease to be and means to pay for them. They are “ habitats play in mitigating tropical forests with high mammal extremely bad at navigating trade-offs the risk of novel virus biodiversity undergoing land conversion. between the provision of private and public emergence needs to be Conversion of natural habitats is thought goods. People don’t tend to voluntarily to increase the likelihood susceptible forgo income and consumption which recognised internationally humans and livestock will come into contact immediately benefits them for small with infected wild hosts, with the process changes in diffuse public goods. International efforts to plan for the next actually favouring host species such as bats That is why governments need to step pandemic must not be stuck in a public and rodents. in to protect public goods. International health silo. As well as improving pandemic In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, institutions and treaties, however, have so responsiveness plans for next time, we need the role intact natural habitats play in far failed to adequately protect biodiversity

13 RISKS AND RIVALS

Ehimetalor Akhere Unuabona

>> over the past decade. A criticism of effort to fill the implementation gap being lost GDP from Covid-19, not to mention the previous international biodiversity targets left by international treaties and targets. It millions of deaths, the 110+ million people has been that they stimulated the creation would need financial resources, willingness, pushed into extreme poverty and/or food of protected areas on paper, but failed and goodwill from tropical forest nations, insecurity, and the larger global social costs to ensure that these protected areas are penalties for companies profiting from of longer-term disease and lockdowns. effectively managed or resourced, or uncontrolled deforestation, and transparent, Tropical deforestation is not a politically created in areas of high conservation value. fair, and financially stable mechanisms for easy problem to solve, as those working on The easiest way to meet an area- ensuring poor people living close to forests existing efforts to tackle it know far too well. based target is to protect areas with low have alternative, sustainable livelihoods. It But if we are here in ten years’ time amidst opportunity cost, that is, little in the way would also mean policy being made on the the fallout of another pandemic caused by of alternative economic uses. But the basis of scientific evidence which is complex a virus which once confined itself to bats or areas most at risk of zoonotic spillover and evolving, on the understanding that monkeys — having failed to read the signs are those undergoing land conversion — research needs to be supported in tandem — we will be looking at not just another areas with high opportunity cost. A nature with policy. lost decade for conservation, but one of the conservation strategy aiming to reduce According to one estimate, the annual great public policy failures of our time. zoonotic spillover risk would need to bite cost of achieving a 40% reduction in an this bullet. area at high risk of virus spillover would be Helen Jackson is an environment and Such a strategy would require concerted $2-10 billion. This is not a trivial amount. But natural resource economist and an Associate international political commitment and it is small compared to the $5.6 trillion in Fellow of Bright Blue

Latest report

Green money: a plan to reform UK carbon pricing Josh Buckland The UK’s current system for carbon pricing is inadequate, inconsistent and unequal. Not only must carbon pricing go much further if the UK is to reach net zero by 2050, but taxes on pollution must also be made fairer in order to equalise the impacts of carbon pricing on different sectors of the economy and build political support for reform.

This report proposes a three-part plan for reforming the UK’s carbon pricing framework. The UK must place a consistent price on all carbon emissions; take effective action by 2030; and build a lasting political and public consensus around carbon pricing.

14 RISKS AND RIVALS

VICTORIA ATKINS MP Fighting fit Tobias Ellwood MP warns that our shrinking military leaves us vulnerable

here is a 1930s feel to the world at the property theft, election interference, and We moment. Authoritarianism is on the cyber attacks. know we Trise once again, geopolitical power Covid-19 has seen nations retreat from are more bases are shifting, international institutions global exposure, become more siloed and vulnerable are unable to hold errant states and non- protectionist. Many states have introduced than during the state actors to account, and rival states are emergency draconian legislation that they Cold War, when we spent 4% of GDP on seriously upgrading their hard power. To will be slow to relinquish. defence. We cannot possibly match today’s make matters worse, there is a clear absence Finally, climate change is already threats on a peacetime budget of 2.2%. of Western resolve and leadership – over impacting security and governance in Although the Integrated Review has got us what we collectively believe in, stand for, some of the world’s most vulnerable investing in our cyber and space resilience, and are truly willing to defend. regions. Storms, floods, and droughts will without an increase in overall defence If there was one welcome outcome from affect agricultural productivity, damage spending, our conventional military power the most recent G7 summit in Cornwall, it is economies, and lead to mass migration, will wither on the vine. the realisation that unless the West becomes most notably from Africa to Europe. less risk averse, regroups, and re-unites, the Large-scale food shortages will Our failure in Afghanistan is next decade will get very bumpy indeed. unsettle populations leading to intensified “ an extreme example where competition over resources and regional the wise use of soft power There is a clear absence of conflict. Even if COP26 is a success, the was trumped by faith in damage done to our fragile planet to date Western“ resolve and leadership hard power alone – over what we collectively will not prevent sea levels from rising before believe in, stand for, and are the danger passes. How the West acts over the next few Over the next five years our Royal Navy truly willing to defend years will determine how the next few surface fleet will become smaller than decades play out. As the UK starts to lift its Italy’s. The British Army is the smallest it has Russia is an acute threat to European head after the distractions of Covid-19 and been for 200 years. Tanks, armoured fighting interests as Vladimir Putin seeks to revitalise Brexit, we must recognise that our options vehicles, and nearly 10,000 troops will its superpower status by expanding are narrowing to change course. disappear. We won’t be able to transport influence in his backyard. China is the long- or protect what’s left as we also lose 24 term geopolitical threat. An ever confident Typhoons, all our Hercules and Puma and assertive Beijing seeks to lure evermore The aircraft, and some of our Chinooks. states into its infrastructure, technology, Govern- Most worryingly, only 48 of the and military programmes, progressively ment’s recent 138 F-35 Lightning expanding its soft power influence across Integrated Review jets are ordered. Asia and now Africa. of Defence, Security, It’s not just Three fresh factors make today’s Development, and Foreign about hard power, situation more dangerous than in the lead Policy recognises the but soft power too. up to the Second World War. individual pieces of the jigsaw Liz Kaszynski Changes in technology are altering how puzzle, but it hasn’t fitted them all we communicate, do business, socialise, and together to form comprehensive grand indeed fight. Our openness offers access to strategy, nor committed the necessary Our failure in Afghanistan both state and non-state actors to disrupt funds to ensure our defence powers are is an extreme example where the our lives beneath the threshold of direct suitably upgraded for the looming threats wise use of soft power was trumped by faith conflict through disinformation, intellectual we face. in hard power alone. Now is not the time to

15 RISKS AND RIVALS

>> cap our defence spending, and we not mother nature alone, need to tackle of it. It’s often much easier to ignore threats certainly should not be reducing our climate change is even tougher. than confront them in time, but never overseas aid budget. We are a nation that steps forward when forget that, as with appeasement, political The international ‘to do’ list could not be others hesitate. The world would be a very drift preceded decisiveness. more daunting. Repairing our international different place if we hadn’t stood firm – and This time, we can’t afford to sleep while institutions; reinvigorating Western resolve; often alone – against Napoleon, the Kaiser, our enemies are wide awake – and ever and, addressing Russia’s acute aggression and Hitler. Today is no different. “No man more dangerous. and China’s increasing economic, is an island” said the poet John Donne. Too technological, and military clout are bad many, I fear, have turned in on themselves, The Rt Hon Tobias Ellwood MP is the enough. Convincing friend and foe that we, confused by a complex world, and fearful Chair of the Defence Committee

ROBIN MAYNARD Disrupting disinformation Counterterror technqiues can apply to tackling disinformation, says Lauren Protentis

isinformation campaigns from radicalisation and counter-terrorism experts hostile state and non-state actors playbooks to curb it. and prac- Dcontinue to thrive and to undermine Disinformation and radicalisation experts titioners democracies, leveraging a vast array of alike study how offline and online behaviors could begin communications platforms to exploit and discourse might predicate real-world understanding the elections, referendums, the Covid-19 harm. At the onset of the mass migration of drivers, external influences, and pandemic, and more. foreign fighters to Iraq and Syria in 2013 and different stages of the radicalisation The fundamental goals of disinformation the increase in related domestic terrorism process and thus recommend and tailor remain the same: to undermine democracy, events, radicalisation and counterterrorism prevention programmes accordingly. international cohesion, and trust in practitioners began considering ‘push’ and Practitioners and global institutions institutions; and to increase polarisation and ‘pull’ factors as indicators or vulnerabilities should think about disinformation through promote geopolitical goals. around which to shape their prevention a similar lens. Identifying predispositions This reached a dramatic height when programmes. or push factors will help governments and angry mobs stormed the US Capitol on 6 global institutions avoid one-size-fits-all January 2021. Related violence, incited by Artificial intelligence approaches to disinformation-related a web of conspiracies and domestic and “enabled disinformation could prevention programmes, predicated on foreign disinformation efforts, demonstrate serve as a similar accelerant local-level drivers and influences, and co- how online disinformation and conspiracies of disinformation-fuelled opting appropriate credible influencers as can shake democracy to its core and part of the resilience building process. cause real-world harm to people and the mobilisation to violence As Peter Kreko, Director of Political democratic process. Capital Institute in Budapest states: Western democracies must take Push factors may be socio-economic, “Vulnerabilities are easily exploited notice of the real and emerging threat of psychological, ideological, and by malign state and non-state actors disinformation-fuelled radicalisation and circumstantial (such as discrimination or who then tailor influence operations to violence that hostile state and non-state marginalisation) factors that might make each audience by tapping into these actors will continue to exploit to achieve some people more likely to consider or underlying complexities.” By tailoring their geopolitical goals. Luckily, there’s physically mobilise towards violence. prevention programmes to address known a vast body of research and practiced Pull factors would include influences, vulnerabilities, state and non-state actors methodologies that disinformation messages, and groups that exploit these may see the impact of disinformation practitioners can borrow from the counter- vulnerabilities. With these factors in mind, campaigns wane.

16 RISKS AND RIVALS

>> Just as social and traditional media have intelligence could generate disinformation or extreme discourse leads to violence. become accelerators of terrorist recruitment scale in a way that brings real concern.” Curbing, or appearing to curb, free speech and radicalisation, artificial intelligence (AI) Governments must be proactive in the name of countering terrorism or enabled disinformation could serve as a by investing in detection tools and extremism could infringe on protected similar accelerant of disinformation-fuelled technologies, and domestic and global free speech and cause irreparable damage mobilisation to violence, if not adequately planning, and put processes in place for to democracies while also exacerbating addressed. information-sharing with social media distrust in governing institutions. companies when AI-enabled disinformation Finally, governments can’t curb the Curbing free speech in the has the potential to cause real-world harm. spread of disinformation alone, nor should “name of countering terrorism Institutions should break down the silos they be solely responsible. Social media could infringe on protected between counterterrorism and counter- and communications platforms must free speech and cause disinformation efforts to ensure real-time become less hospitable to the spread of information sharing, analysis, and future disinformation on their platforms. irreparable damage planning, as the lines between counter- As disinformation enters this new phase radicalisation and counterterrorism efforts and poses an increasing risk to democracy, Deepfake videos online are dramatically and counter-disinformation efforts overlap. institutions must act quickly to create increasing. A report from Deeptrace While elections, referendums, and the plans and programmes that build resilience indicates that in 2019, over a ten-month Covid-19 pandemic all present vectors for against this threat. Leveraging the broad period, there was an increase from 7,964 to disinformation-fuelled violence, global array of lessons learned, resources, and tools 14,678 in deepfakes circulating online. The institutions and governments should begin from recent counterterrorism and counter- creation and distribution of sophisticated anticipating future threats or vectors that radicalisation programmes is a good place deepfakes, forged documents, or doctored could lead to another 6 January-style event. to start. images presents yet another tool for While it is imperative for global nefarious actors to exploit. Anne Neuberger, institutions and governments to take critical Lauren Protentis is a national security and White House Deputy National Security and swift steps to combat the rising tide of communications expert. The views expressed Advisor for Cyber and Emerging Technology, disinformation-related violence, there are are the author’s own and not necessarily echoed this concern by saying that “artificial important limitations. Not all disinformation those of the US Government.

Brett Davis

17 THE INTERVIEW Sir Alan Duncan

Joseph Silke speaks with former Foreign Office deputy about what ‘Global Britain’ means, the Government’s record on LGBT issues, and his infamous diary

18

UK Government INTERVIEW

Who has most influenced your political philosophy, particularly your attitudes to foreign affairs?

No single person, and if you hark back to old names who are seen to be great influencers, the thinking you might take on from appreciating them will have become out of date. The important thing to remember is that understanding foreign policy is not just looking at Palmerston, Churchill, and Thatcher, it is about understanding Britain’s current place in the world and what is going on in that world. We have to think for ourselves and the problem with modern Britain is that we do not have a foreign policy. No substantial politician has given it any thought, or come up with any credible modern approach as to what our policy should be.

The Government currently has this concept of ‘Global Britain’ which they claim is central to how they approach foreign and defence policy. Do you think it hasn’t been developed enough?

‘Global Britain’ is utterly meaningless, until they explain the details of what it means in practice. It is nothing more than a slogan which conjures up a wish to play our part in the world, whatever that means, and to signal that we still think we matter, without saying how, where, and to what extent. Rather like ‘levelling up’, these vacuous slogans amount to nothing unless properly defined.

In the current context, do you think it is still possible for Britain to be what one might call a global player?

We do matter, but we probably only matter if we act as part of a broader alliance. We seem to have literally no moral conviction when it comes to areas where it takes courage to express that conviction. Anybody can sound off about China or Burma, or something like that, because it doesn’t require you to stick your neck out when it comes to domestic politics. When it comes to more difficult issues, whether in Africa or the Middle East, we are pretty vacuous.

The Prime Minister clearly wants COP26 to be a big moment for Global Britain taking an international lead. Do you expect that Britain can fulfill this leadership role, or with the Cumbrian coal mine and a new North Sea oil and gas project, are we still failing to live up to that role?

Your question shows our problem. We are so stuck on everything else, we think that COP26 is an issue of foreign policy. It’s not; it’s an issue of collective environment policy, which is not the same as having to deal with conflicts and differences of culture. Although it is indeed global in one sense, it’s literally a ‘cop’ out.

You were a Minister for International Development: to what extent has the abolition of DfID and the aid budget cut undermined the UK’s soft power and moral standing?

You don’t just win soft power by signing a big cheque. My favoured approach at DfID was to focus on tangible things like clean water, good health, and basic education, rather than programmes that cost a lot of money, but are wishy-washy, like ‘freedom for women’. Such

19 INTERVIEW

a thing is important, of course, but it is rather difficult to measure. I Integrated Review called China a “systemic challenge”. always said we should only have a programme in a country if two Taiwan remains a major flashpoint. How concerned conditions were met: massive control of waste and refuse, so you should we be about a new Cold War? don’t just throw stuff into the nearest river; and, the right to visit any of their prisons. Both of these were consistently rejected by the DfID The greater issue is that we have ceded economic prosperity to hierarchy. Nonetheless, DfID did some very good things. No cogent China by letting them loot the world to make things cheaply, that argument has been presented, in any detail, to justify the merger of we then buy. We have transferred our pollution so we can, at least DfID and the FCO. If part of the plan was to spend DfID money on a in the short term, benefit economically. I want us to be making better FCO, which I would like to see, you can only do so by changing more things closer to home, with less shipping and air travel. We the International Development Act, because you need to spend will be more expensive than China while there is a difference in Official Development Assistance (ODA) on things that the current environmental standards. It is of both foreign and domestic policy definition doesn’t permit. Instead, the Government has this messy importance that we be more self-reliant. I think it will be one of the merger; they’ve cut a lot of DfID programmes that matter, such as lessons from the pandemic, but it’s true with or without Covid-19, vital relief in Yemen; they probably haven’t added to anything at the in terms of both food and manufactured goods. This also applies in FCO; and they have muddied the law by deliberately reducing the the European context, but we have now left that European bloc that aid spending from 0.7 to 0.5. We have ended up with incoherence might have worked together to achieve this. and incompetence when it comes to the management of our aid budget by those who have preconceived notions about what it is, and who don’t know how it should be used. ‘Global Britain’ is utterly meaningless, until In terms of the cut that has been made, it is estimated they explain the details of what it means in to be roughly £4 billion. The excuse given is that we “ practice. It is nothing more than a slogan... are in a fiscal emergency, but we have continued to spend many more billions on other areas. Do you Rather like ‘levelling up’, these vacuous slogans think the cut was just a cynical ploy to please a amount to nothing unless properly defined certain section of the electorate?

Yes, I’m sure it was, and there’s no point in denying it. Of course it At this time one hundred years ago, the British was. What I dislike about this most is that it is a little huddle directing Empire was at its greatest territorial extent. Nobody decisions, with their prejudices, rather than a properly argued and can claim that the UK is that superpower now. Do you formed policy, presented to the British public in a reasoned way. think that the UK has handled that transition well, or That is true of almost all policies at the moment, and it is one of the are Brexit and nationalist movements indicative of a main failings of the Government. We have become very shallow. country still in existential crisis?

Is Russia still the UK’s biggest “active threat” as That’s a brilliant question and if I had to say whether we have proscribed in the Integrated Review, and do you think handled it well, I would say no, we’ve not handled it well. We are there’s any hope for better relations while Vladimir now at the top end of a cluster of medium powers. We remain far Putin is in power? more important than Russia, with a bigger economy, even though we have a much smaller land mass. In terms of decolonisation, There probably isn’t hope. Putin is going to push the frontiers as all that has gone very well to a large extent. I’m not saying all the far as he dares, whenever he can. I always say that the difference countries are now thriving, but the moral way we have disentangled between us and Russia is that, whenever we see a problem in the has been solid. Where it all goes wrong is the way that politicians world, we try to solve it, whereas Putin will do his best to destabilise talk in hyperbolic superlatives like ‘Global Britain’ and claiming that the situation and stir things up. There aren’t many issues in the world we are still the best in the world. We need to get real, be dignified, that you can point to, that you can say have been solved by Russia. and recognise that we are an upper-medium power, with good alliances and prospects, but we are not the hub of a massive empire There’s Russia, and then there’s China. Tensions anymore, and the language that we use sometimes is self-deluding, have been rising between the West and China over and converts in some cases into distasteful and risible nationalism. Hong Kong, Xinjiang, even the lab leak theory. The You cannot build a foreign policy or a lasting national reputation on

20 INTERVIEW the back of such idiocy. some extent, it’s a bit of a lament about the decline of standards in Parliament and our standing in the world. It is more than just Pivoting away from foreign and defence policy, the a diary. Had I written it with a view to publishing it, I might have Government has come under significant criticism for had more reflection and thoughtfulness, but I had never intended some of its policies relating to LGBT people. Why do to publish it. The thing about a diary is that, if you have offended you think the Government has delayed the ban on people, it’s because you were angry at the time, and the golden rule so-called ‘conversion therapy’ which was promised of publishing a diary is that you cannot change it. As I say in the under Theresa May? introduction, I’m sorry if I hacked off a few people, but for one or two who received particularly fierce criticism, I certainly don’t retract I don’t know and I don’t understand it. I can understand that what I said. when it comes to gender identification, it’s a complicated issue and people get very emotional about it, so it’s difficult to make legislative progress. When it comes to conversion therapy, I simply Policy seems shallow and none of it is don’t understand why it is facing obstacles to be put into law. The adequately expressed and argued in public. We problem with this Government in general is that nobody explains “ the decisions they take. My successor as MP for Rutland and Melton, have no thoughtful political process. What we Alicia Kearns, has been vocal on this, and pushed the issue very hard. have instead is government by press releases, There shouldn’t be any exceptions when it comes to the ban. It is spending announcements, and slogans either a correct piece of legislation or it isn’t.

Are you concerned about the Government’s decision to withdraw from the Stonewall diversity scheme? The Brexit process was a particularly pressurised moment for those working in government at the time; No, I think some of the Stonewall agenda has become so apart from it seems to have been fundamentally unpleasant for what one might call mainstream thinking; they’ve become a bit many of them. We’ve now gone from that crisis to an odd. I don’t see the decisions on Stonewall as anti-LGBT at all. I see even bigger one with Covid-19. Have you revised any it as the Government having difficulty embracing what Stonewall of your opinions on anybody in the meantime? is saying. In any case, I don’t think the Government should have anybody else’s agenda on these issues, apart from their own. The I blow hot and cold about Boris. Although the criticism tends to be Government should set an example by having their own diversity what gets picked out, there’s a lot of praise in there too. Likewise in policy and by making it an example for others to follow. The the Covid-19 crisis, he has had good moments and bad moments. Government shouldn’t contract out these things, and instead take I don’t think that anybody else could have galvanised the country ownership of it themselves. into lockdown at the start like he did. Could anybody really see Jeremy Corbyn doing that? Of course, he was sick himself for a bit, he You released private diaries earlier this year which made a mess of PPE because he can never grasp any detail, and the caused quite a stir. You certainly said some nice appointment of Dominic Cummings was totally wrong because the things about people, but the more inflammatory worst aspect of modern government is the rise of special advisers remarks went particularly viral. What did you make of who think they are more important than ministers. They are not; the reaction you received? they are a constitutional aberration that should be largely pruned. Yet, despite these mistakes, we are finishing on a high. Now, I don’t The reaction was massively approving. The serialisation was not actually accept your view that Covid-19 has been a bigger problem a fair reflection of the diary itself, although it was a teaser to than Brexit. The pandemic is a worldwide problem that, in the UK, will encourage people to go and read the diary. It does monster two or have lasted around two years, but Brexit is much more complicated. three people, but it is far more complimentary of people than they It has fast and slow consequences, some of which are still unknown are critical. There is a lot of exasperation and frustration in it because like the status of Northern Ireland and Scotland. The trouble is, and it is a day-to-day chronicle of the Brexit civil war in Parliament and this is my broadest point, that all current policy seems shallow and outside it. So far, it is the only day-to-day account of the period from none of it is adequately expressed and argued in public. We have no literally ‘in the thick of it’. There is quite a lot of reflection in it about thoughtful political process. What we have instead is government by the state of foreign policy and the degradation of government. To press releases, spending announcements, and slogans.

21 THE CHINESE CENTURY?

VICTORIA ATKINS MP The flickering flame of freedom Events in Hong Kong should be a warning to the world, urges Nathan Law

ollowing the passage of the National is under siege. When China consistently reign of Security Law last year, Beijing has been violated the UN-filed Sino-British Joint terror, Ftightening its grip on Hong Kong. Declaration, the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ particularly Since the outbreak of the city’s framework effectively came to an end. after the Movement in 2019, 10,242 people have Beijing’s brutal persecution not just Beijing-dominated been arrested, with a quarter of them stifles dissent, but it ruins the city’s long- legislature passed immigration legislation prosecuted. The majority of the lawsuits term aspirations. According to a recent authorising police to enforce exit bans to entail speech crimes. Forty seven pro- survey of those aged 15 to 30 by the deter people from leaving the city. democracy figures were prosecuted Chinese University’s Hong Kong Institute of because of participating in the recent Asia-Pacific Studies, respondents rated Hong It is clear that the new primary election. Campaigners who have Kong’s future on average as 2.95 out of 10, “ National Security Law has participated in the annual vigil to mourn the down from 4.37 three years ago. Nearly sixty become a cage for 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre have also percent would like to leave the city if given been imprisoned because of their protests. the chance. This world city, especially the Hongkongers: our liberty The totalitarian power intensified soon youths who campaigned tirelessly during is under siege after Beijing passed the ‘patriots ruling the 2019 Movement to protest for a world Hong Kong’ resolution — the authorities of justice and liberty, is finding that Beijing’s The new BNO visa demonstrates the persecuted journalists, froze media mogul tightening hold is putting an end to their UK’s dedication to upholding its role in Jimmy Lai’s assets, indoctrinated extreme dreams. the evolving ‘Global Britain’ agenda. By nationalism in classrooms, censored During the city’s darkest hour, the UK providing shelter to oppressed vulnerable textbooks, screenings, and even stopped Government launched a new visa scheme people, the UK shows its commitment broadcasting the Oscars award ceremony. for Hong Kong British National Overseas to stand on the side of freedom fighters For a long time, it was assumed that the (BNO) status holders. In the first two months against authoritarianism. The UK’s new ‘One Country, Two Systems’ arrangement of this year, 27,000 applications were visa scheme can be seen as a way to assist would ensure the city’s liberty, autonomy, submitted. In April, a welcome programme Hongkongers to rebuild our crumbling civil and our democratic dream. However, it is was also revealed to help newcomers. society overseas, which can offer support clear that the new National Security Law has Without doubt, this arrangement serves as for the city’s democratic movement in the become a cage for Hongkongers: our liberty a safe haven for those escaping Beijing’s long run. The UK Government should now take the lead and sanction officials responsible for Hong Kong’s democratic backsliding. In May, I launched a petition demanding action in response to Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong. The petition received 10,000-strong signatures from British people and residents in less than a week. The persecutors of human rights should expect to face consequences. In the midst of China’s growing assertiveness, Hong Kong is far from alone in facing authoritarian intimidation. Beijing employs deceit to whitewash its human Studio Incendo rights abuses in Xinjiang. China’s military

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>> threats against Taiwan, Bhutan, and the ties and strategic alliances with Russia. allies. To assert its influence on the world South China Sea also endangers the region’s Such an expansion of authoritarianism stage, the UK must play a more important The flickering flame of freedom peace and stability. Following the overflight will erode democracy globally, unless the role in the Indo-Pacific. of over 5,000 warplanes into Taiwan’s world’s democracies coordinate their anti- airspace last year, nearly 300 Chinese militia autocracy efforts. Individual countries will Nathan Law is a Hong Kong pro-democracy ships were sent to the Philippines earlier this only strengthen their immunity to China’s activist and former legislator who has been year. Concurrently, China has expanded its coercion by cooperating with democratic granted political asylum in the UK

ROBIN MAYNARD Tilting tensions The Asia-Pacific is the new land of opportunity, arguesSir Lockwood Smith

he centre of gravity of global trade a more rigorous inquiry into the origins isn’t shifted towards the Asia-Pacific in of Covid-19, hefty tariffs were slapped great. Tthe first two decades of this century. on products not essential to the Chinese What’s In fact, it could be claimed that consumer economy, such as barley and wine. more, demand out of China helped drag a number Until now, China has had a pretty good the Biden of economies through the Global Financial track record of compliance with WTO Administration seems in no Crisis. rulings. As the first trade minister in the haste to re-engage with the multilateral More recently, however, trade tensions world to sign China up to the WTO, I hope trading system. have risen. The threat to global economic that will continue. All is not lost, however. The TPP was wellbeing is real. But political tensions induced by a finally concluded as the Comprehensive The geopolitical landscape started diversity of issues from the South China Sea, and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific to change when the new Trump to the treatment of Uyghur Muslims and Partnership (CPTPP), with world-leading Administration withdrew from the Hong Kong protesters; the place of Taiwan work on good regulatory practice and Transpacific Partnership (TPP) during the in the One China future, not to mention a valuable chapter introducing, for the final stages of its negotiation. Paradoxically, alleged malicious cyber activities by the first time in an FTA, sensible remedies for the whole idea of such a trade grouping Chinese Ministry of State Security, all require dealing with members failing to implement was originally a United States idea, first careful, clear diplomatic handling if they are their own environmental regulation. formulated during the Clinton years. not to further destabilise trade. The Trump exit from TPP was part of a For Australasia, much is at stake. China The chance for Britain wider withdrawal of US leadership from takes at least 40% of Australia’s exports and “ to ease open the door to the rules-based global trading system. about 30% of New Zealand’s. free trade with India is real. Intransigence on judicial appointments There were intensified efforts to If anyone can do it, at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) conclude negotiations on the Regional also started to destabilise that critically Comprehensive Economic Partnership Britain can important disputes resolution process. (RCEP), involving Australia, New Zealand, At the same time, President Trump the ten members of Association of Moreover, we saw Japan emerge as entered into a tit-for-tat trade war with Southeast Asian Nations; as well as China, a leader in ongoing trade liberalisation China. Unsurprisingly, China also seemed to India, South Korea, and Japan. Sadly, at work. The question now is – can Global attach less importance to WTO rules and we the last minute India withdrew. That was Britain also step up to a leadership role in saw partial product bans and tariffs being a significant blow as RCEP was seen as a helping navigate this changed geopolitical imposed on imports in what appeared to be pathway for bringing India more widely into landscape? retaliation for political criticism. the global trading system. First, acceding to CPTPP would have an For example, when Australia called for The net result of all these manoeuvrings impact way beyond the narrow economic

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>> cost-benefit analysis. It would engage potential of the Asia-Pacific region won’t be Britain captures the vision. The first steps the UK with one of the most rapidly realised without India. Hence the current are underway - agreement in principle on growing parts of the world. But more thinking around the Indo-Pacific. what looks like a quality FTA with Australia, importantly, it would help bring the Many countries have tried to negotiate negotiations close to completion with New dynamism of the Asia-Pacific to the free trade agreements with India. Most Zealand, and accession to CPTPP started. doorstep of Europe. As New Zealand has have struggled and developed countries Dialogue partner status by ASEAN has seen with all our trade agreements, the have failed to achieve anything like a also recently been granted. It’s a welcome potential to open minds is enormous. comprehensive FTA. sign from the Asia-Pacific. If Global Britain The UK’s membership of CPTPP may also Britain’s relationship with India goes back could help lead a new chapter of economic encourage the US to rethink its position. A a long way and is deeper rooted than most. cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, the benefits transatlantic UK-US free trade agreement The chance for Britain to ease open the door would be enormous. seems fraught. Achieving it via CPTPP offers to free trade with India is real. If anyone can wider benefits to both sides. do it, Britain can. The Rt Hon Sir Lockwood Smith is the The role for Global Britain, though, The United Kingdom has the heft. former High Commissioner of New Zealand doesn’t stop there. All are aware that the full Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Global to the United Kingdom

MIATTA FAHNBULLEH A shameful record Luke de Pulford denounces the UK Government’s inaction on genocide

hat do you think when you hear the same policy for 40 years, that: ‘genocide Ted the words genocide denial? For determination is for competent courts, not Row- Wmost, odious Holocaust denier politicians’. The logical consequence of this lands: and pseudo historian David Irving springs to policy is that the UK Government has not, “While I, too, mind. Either that or lizard loon David Icke. and will not, use the term genocide unless a have read with I think of the UK Government. The UK court has convicted someone of it. great concern the recent reports of events has a truly terrible record on genocide. This is a disastrous, immoral, and in Cambodia, I do not think they constitute Indefensibly terrible, and, unlike messrs arguably unlawful policy. On the face of a threat to world peace. Nor, I should add, Irving and Icke, the opinion of the UK it, it might seem reasonable to defer to have I any means of verifying the truth of Government actually matters. a court. The problem is that convictions the allegations that have been made.” for genocide are exceptionally rare and Rwanda? Here’s one of Blair’s early junior Governments of all hues normally come decades after atrocities have foreign ministers, Tony Lloyd: “Since I May “have stuck to the same policy ended, if at all. 1997, we have not had cause to seek legal for 40 years, that: ‘genocide In the Armenian Genocide, 600,000 advice on whether the massacre in Rwanda determination is for competent people died. It is probably the reason in 1994 constituted genocide under the Raphael Lemkin first coined the term terms of the Genocide Convention.” courts, not politicians’ ‘genocide’, but the UK refuses to recognise Was 800,000 thousand people getting it. Here’s former Minister Baroness Ramsay, hacked to pieces by machetes not sufficient The Genocide Convention was signed in a typically obstinate rebuttal: “We do not cause to seek some legal advice? The in 1948. We didn’t accede to it until 1970. believe it is the business of governments Rwandan Genocide is one of the least When we did finally accede, we built a today to review events of over 80 years ago contested in history, but the UK was policy which would ensure that the UK with a view to pronouncing on them.” nowhere to be seen, and refused to call wouldn’t have to do anything to stop How about Cambodia? Khmer Rouge’s it genocide until at least a decade after developing genocides, or anything at all. massacre of millions surely qualifies, but not everyone had been killed. Governments of all hues have stuck to according to then Foreign Office Minister The Genocide Convention is a much

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Yá shēng

>> misunderstood document. It isn’t just We also have a rapidly expanding body Court of Justice, whose jurisdiction in such about punishment. The Convention binds of evidence appearing to show genocidal matters China does not recognise. signatory states to “prevent and punish” intent, which is always the most difficult This is what the Genocide Amendment, genocide. The UK can’t be expected to aspect of proving ‘state genocide’. which I was responsible for, was all about: prevent a developing genocide if all of the Any state requiring genocide to be creating the possibility for genocide UK’s action on genocide is contingent upon proven to a criminal standard before acting determination in domestic courts so this a conviction. is shirking their duties to victims. Making circular policy can be made operable. Sadly, So it’s no surprise that we find ourselves action contingent on court determination the Government whipped MPs within an in 2021 with a Government absolutely is not what the fathers of the Genocide inch of their lives to oppose it. insistent that nothing should be done about Convention intended. It would take a courageous government the atrocities endured by Uyghurs and Aside from precluding the possibility to do it, but this embarrassment of a policy other minorities at the hands of the Chinese of prevention, it sends a message to those needs to be overturned and replaced with Government. suffering that their atrocities are only worthy something worthy of a truly Global Britain; There is no hint that our solemn duties of recognition when such recognition costs one ready to stand by the commitments we under the Genocide Convention will be us nothing. made in the aftermath of the Holocaust and invoked and honoured. We don’t have There isn’t even a court to hear a actually mean them. much evidence of mass killing, but the genocide case about China. A genocide crime of genocide does not require mass conviction would require either a referral Luke de Pulford is the co-founder and killing. We have overwhelming evidence of from the UN Security Council to the Director of Arise, an anti-slavery charity, birth prevention, family separation, torture, International Criminal Court, which China and co-founder of the Coalition for mass extrajudicial detention, and more. would veto, or action at the International Genocide Response

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VICTORIA ATKINS MP Data kings? Dr John Hemmings explains how a D10 could defend against digital authoritarianism

t the G7 summit, the UK’s bold wayside in the post-Cold War neoliberal era. People. strategy to recast the G7 economic The United States began this Second, Agroup into a larger D10, the world’s conversation first in 2012 when the Obama China’s ten leading democracies, was the first Administration unveiled a ‘National Strategy position as the multilateral effort by the democratic powers for Global Supply Chain Security’. This manufacturer of the to wrestle with a new geopolitical reality – thread was picked up in numerous US advanced economies, combined with state that of the rise of authoritarian powers at a Department of Defense studies during the support for its own companies, would give it time of technological change. It highlights Trump administration that looked at how US the ability to dominate global standards and both the geopolitical and strategic nature of manufacturing had gradually outsourced markets for these technologies. data-related technologies – the information much production to China, putting many communications technologies (ICT) that vital parts of its own supply chain into Xi Jinping has understood carry data, the computing power to process foreign hands. The off-shoring of cheap “ the power of data and data- data, and the algorithms to make data technology components, the subsequent related technologies ... It is useful and actionable. rise of Chinese tech giants, and Chinese a case of Marxism-Leninism There are two really important questions state-backed venture capitalism means that deserve our attention. The first is, why that these lines have been blurred at the meeting Silicon Valley was this needed? The second is, now that outsourcing, development, and financing we’re here, what should the D10 do? levels. Third, that new technologies would At the very heart of the D10 concept are From his first days in power, Xi Jinping provide China the opportunity to scale the two ideas. The first is that communication has understood the power of data and heights of the global economy, leapfrogging technologies are dual-use – strategic in data-related technologies and sought three other states to establish itself as a leading the same way as aerospace – affecting a outcomes through his technology policies. cyber superpower, manufacturing power, state’s ability to function and to defend First, that the Chinese Community Party and cultural power. It is, therefore, a case of itself. The second follows from the first: ICT (CCP) would use these new technologies to Marxism-Leninism meeting Silicon Valley. supply chain security is a matter of national forge a new style of governance — a new The leaders of the D10 must decide on a security, something that had fallen by the relationship between the Party and the number of things. The first is whether the

UK Government

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>> D10 should replace the G7. The issue is with domestic start-ups, and which are that the wave of Chinese-inward investment a red herring and can be sidestepped until funding or acquiring other firms. There is no in 2017 was in part down to the Made in Data kings? certain members of the latter get over their point accepting technology from a Silicon China 2025 strategy. concerns about enlargement. There’s no Valley-based company if it is owned by a All of this needs to be explained to reason the two must be merged. Primarily Chinese or Russian government agency or the public and a globalist-minded tech the D10 should be about securing the investment body. sector. Jinping has revived and renewed supply chains of democracies in an age of the concept of technology as a major facet digital authoritarianism. There is no point accepting of inter-state competition. He believes Initially, at least, the D10 need not be an “ technology from a Silicon it is how China will win the future. The economic grouping at all, but a standard – a Valley-based company if it is Marxist-Leninist approach that his vision list of countries from whom it is acceptable owned by a Chinese or Russian encapsulates means that the democratic to source data-related technologies – and way of life would intrinsically be at peril a way of handling data in a lawful manner. government agency were that to occur. The D10 must wrestle In order to create this standard, the D10 with all that and more, but it is a worthy member states will have to take three steps. The D10 will have to institutionalise goal. First, they will have to carry out intensive information-sharing between their market- It is perhaps a fitting notion that the investigations into their own supply chains intelligence departments in real time, United Kingdom – once the leading – such as the sort of inventories that the which requires a high-level of trust and capitalist power of the industrial age – is US has been undertaking since 2012 – in institutionalisation, something that will be bringing together the world’s democracies order to see the extent to which they are difficult. to defend our data in the digital age from compromised. Third, the D10 will have to align their this new threat. Second, they will have to create investment policies to prevent malign market-intelligence functions within investors from poaching critical companies. Dr John Hemmings is an Associate their intelligence agencies, commerce, There is no point in creating a trusted Professor at the DKI-APCSS in Honolulu and foreign departments so that they are network of companies if those are going Hawaii. The views expressed are the author’s aware of which firms are operating in their to be poached by China’s hungry state own and not necessarily those of the US technology sectors, which are working investment companies. We already know Government.

ROBIN MAYNARD Collaborating with China? China remains an indispensable partner, stresses Isabel Hilton OBE

here is no good moment to have a Glasgow later this year. Both come with big flagging national identity crisis, but the UK’s responsibilities to deliver key outcomes effort Tcontinuing confusion about what it beyond domestic public relations. G7 to present wants to be when it grows into its post- should have laid ground for COP26, but China as a great Brexit identity has come at an especially the disintegration of the UK’s relations with business opportunity delicate time. Its position is big on rhetorical the EU offered the unedifying spectacle of that Brexit has somehow enabled, and grand promises, but it falls between a series a British host apparently happy to sacrifice the need to claim close friendship with a of conflicting pressures that present some global leadership at a critical moment for United States that sees China as its main very difficult and important choices. short-term domestic politics. strategic threat, the Johnson Government The recent G7 summit in Cornwall was In addition, the UK wriggled must also reckon with an increasingly the first of two big 2021 moments for uncomfortably over how to deal with China, uncompromising response on its own the UK; the second occasion, of course, a question ever more deeply entrenched backbenches to China’s actions in Xinjiang is COP26, the UN climate conference in in global politics. Already torn between its and Hong Kong.

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>> The EU and the US reached for similar it is too late. At present, we are on track for immoral or impossible, but it is not clear formulae as they each grappled with a catastrophic three degrees, and time is that a refusal to cooperate on climate an increasingly assertive China. The EU running out. China is directly responsible change would bring relief to the victims defined China as a partner, a competitor, for nearly 30% of global emissions, and of human rights abuses. When Western and a systemic rival, recognising that while indirectly responsible for even more democracies have maintained relations it cannot be ignored, the values of the through its overseas investments. The with states with appalling domestic records, People’s Republic are deeply unpopular climate crisis cannot be addressed without they have argued that they must balance with European electorates. The US, despite China, so if that cannot be achieved, the perceived gains against action on human the passing of Trump’s age of incoherence, outlook for human society everywhere is, rights. continues to see both a strategic rivalry that frankly, bleak. The US stayed close to Argentina has quickly become the main organising throughout the Dirty War, as it did with El principle of US foreign policy, but also a key The climate crisis cannot be Salvador at a time of savage repression; trading relationship. Decoupling, however “ addressed without China, so Saudi Arabia’s penchant for medieval catchy it might seem on a campaign if that cannot be achieved, punishments has not notably harmed platform, remains devilishly difficult to the outlook for human society relations, and throughout the Cold War, imagine in reality. a strategic dialogue continued with the None of this will grow easier as the everywhere is, frankly, bleak USSR on critical issues such as arms control. consequences of the pandemic play out. However uncomfortable such policies One global crisis is bad enough, We risk a toxic escalation of are, it is hard to argue that the impending but we simultaneously face tensions. In China, as in several climate threat is less important than the the escalating climate and industrialised democracies considerations in any of those cases. biodiversity crises. Without including the US, it is not skilful, resolute, and far-sighted hard to find ultra-nationalist It is not clear that a diplomacy, one crisis will get in voices who argue that no “ refusal to cooperate on the way of dealing with the other collaboration is desirable, climate change would bring and together they spin off more. or even possible. But China relief to the victims of We are in that fractious moment, cannot deal with the climate and the day-to-day attrition of crisis alone any more than human rights abuses global tensions risks the US or the UK derailing the can and, as Both John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua, cooperation that one of the China’s veteran negotiator, understand is essential to countries that they must somehow maintain forward addressing the most motion in their climate relationship, despite climate crisis. vulnerable the mounting volume of noise from their In an ideal to climate respective domestic constituencies. It will scenario, impacts, not be easy: Biden seeks to balance his own COP26 would China domestic pressures by framing both his deliver has much green industrial revolution and the Build much more to lose Back Better World initiative as competitive, ambitious from any if not full blown, anti-China policies. The national collective EU, so far, has been slow to sign up for full mitigation failure. spectrum confrontation. The UK fidgets pledges, marking Many in uncomfortably in the middle. It will have a clear pathway the UK argue to do better than it did in Cornwall if it is to to the 2015 Paris that China’s keep its balance: failure this year will neither Agreement goal violations be forgotten nor forgiven. of limiting global of global average temperature norms render Isabel Hilton OBE is a journalist, rises to 1.5°C before Roman Kubanskiy cooperation broadcaster, and China expert

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ROBIN MAYNARD Good neighbours? The EU and UK need a cooling off period after Brexit, writes Jill Rutter

t has been five years since the exports to the UK. At a low cost of reduced may referendum, but only just over six months fishing rights, it has won considerable preoccupy Isince the UK left transition to fulfill the safeguards to the single market and a big British wishes of the majority who voted to Leave opportunity to snatch a good chunk of the politics for the the EU in 2016. Both sides are – at the UK’s dominant services share. next decade. The moment – yet to emerge from the post- The UK, on the other hand, is still in the risk is that the ambition of Global Britain is break-up trauma, as evidenced on the state of bristling from terms of divorce that supplanted by the necessity of ‘Introverted beach in Cornwall at the G7 summit. weren’t quite what it envisaged when it Britain’. It’s hard to square world leadership decided to quit; feeling that the wounded while significant chunks of your home A series of semi-spurious other side tried to impose an unreasonable citizenry are debating whether they would “successes are chalked to Brexit, cost for leaving the family home. The be better off breaking away. whether it is the efficient Government is determined to assert the Brexit may be done. However, the vaccine roll-out or the demise benefits of new-found independence, consequences of Brexit are still very much however tenuous. So a series of semi- in play. of the European Super League spurious successes are chalked to Brexit, It is in both the interests of the UK whether it is the efficient vaccine roll-out or and the EU to settle back down into a The EU is determined to move on – the demise of the European Super League, normalised relationship as soon as they while attempting to ensure that their while rolled over EU trade deals are hailed as can. Turning the Trade and Cooperation deserting partner can point to as few bright new opportunities. Agreement into a ‘Tension and benefits as possible from its decision to As with any marital break-up, the biggest Confrontation Agreement’ serves neither quit the partnership. A once influential impact may not be on the two principals party well. The UK and the EU have a lot of member state had been downgraded to who can weather the storm, ride-out the common interests – whether it is in reacting bit part player – useful for bilateral security immediate disruption, and then try to to Russian provocation, managing security cooperation, but otherwise airbrushed out reestablish a functional relationship in the threats from China, or collaborating with a of the picture. The EU can be pretty satisfied longer-term. What Brexit means for stability reengaged US on issues as wide-ranging as that it secured a trade deal that delivered in Northern Ireland or the future of Scotland climate change, global pandemic response relatively hassle-free access for its goods in the UK is still far from settled, and this or rebooting the world trading system. On these, cooperation should win out over competition. It may be hard to admit now, but both sides benefit if their respective economies flourish too.

Stability in Northern Ireland “or the future of Scotland in the UK is still far from settled, and this may preoccupy British politics for the next decade

At the moment, some in the UK Government seem determined to put the EU back in its box with a strong preference

Roman Kubanskiy for bilateralism. The UK needs to accept,

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>> however, that it is up to the sovereign need to react allergically to every crowing feeling the need to define every move member states of the EU to decide where statement made by a UK minister. This through the prism of Brexit. they want to act individually and where may be hard until some long-term balm is In the long-run, the UK will have to they would prefer to act collectively. found for the open wound of the Northern accept that, like Canada with the US or Meanwhile, the EU needs to accept Ireland Protocol – but if the UK is prepared New Zealand with Australia, it needs to be that it has weathered any existential threat to accept that the Protocol is here to stay, aware of the elephant in its neighbourhood, from Brexit. The bruising process the UK the EU should accept that it is in Northern but does not need to be defined by it. experienced seems to have deterred most Ireland’s, Ireland’s, and ultimately in the EU’s And the EU needs to realise that it will be tempted to follow suit. own interest, for it to be as dedramatised as strengthened, not undermined, by positive The EU needs to pocket its huge soon as possible. relations with a post-Brexit Britain. negotiating success, made easier by the In the short-run, both sides would be UK’s prioritisation of autonomy over well served by a period of lofty indifference, Jill Rutter is Senior Research Fellow at UK in economy, and realise that it does not where they go about their business without a Changing Europe

MIATTA FAHNBULLEH The Anglosphere revived? Closer CANZUK ties would boost prosperity for all four, argues James Skinner

he United Kingdom finds itself in an four nations. Since gaining political and British exciting situation. media attention in 2015, it has evolved public, T Free to act autonomously outside from a post-Brexit dream to a recognised according of the European Union, our small island in multinational campaign, and has gained to a variety of the North Atlantic can now explore a world support from senior Cabinet Ministers, MPs, polls. of opportunities in trade, mobility, and and Senators in the process. Reciprocal migration could be simply beyond. What’s more, this geopolitical alliance implemented by Canada and the UK joining However, the question remains: where appeals to all segments of our society: the already existing Trans-Tasman Travel do we begin? Many will continue to propose Brexiteers, Remainers, businesses, Agreement between Australia and New reunification with our friends in Europe, professionals, and the average person in the Zealand, which allows citizens of these and likely for a long time into the future. street. countries to live and work in the other, but Yet, there is a much greater initiative on the The organisation CANZUK International, imposes travel bans on those with criminal horizon that will ensure work, travel and spearheading this initiative, seeks to records, infectious health conditions, and business opportunities for generations to establish three main objectives in pursuing security concerns. come. That initiative is CANZUK. a truly Global Britain, which are: reciprocal One might say the CANZUK format is migration, free trade, and foreign policy superior to EU freedom of movement, given One might say the CANZUK cooperation between its four members. the common-sense limitations it imposes “ format is superior to EU Reciprocal migration would permit for national security, while affording greater freedom of movement, given citizens of the UK to live, work, and travel opportunities to our citizens who speak the across Canada, Australia, and New Zealand same language and share historic ties with the common-sense limitations without the hindrance of obtaining time- these nations. it imposes for national security limited visas, sponsorships, and work Free trade within CANZUK would also permits. This concept not only restores promote economic growth and prosperity CANZUK — an abbreviation of Canada, Britons’ rights and privileges to live and for the UK. Not only would bilateral trade Australia, New Zealand, and the United work freely in other countries — removed deals — or even a multilateral trade deal — Kingdom — has been championed by since our departure from the EU — but is remove tariffs on $3.5 trillion worth of goods many think tanks and politicians across the also widely supported by over 70% of the and services between these countries, but

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>> would also segue to bespoke on the world stage in one voice and guard of $110 billion collectively safeguard agreements for the benefit of our citizens. against foreign aggressors who wish to see democracy, human rights, and the rule of As an example, the All-Party the downfall of Western values. law throughout the world. Parliamentary Group for CANZUK in Already, the CANZUK countries work A case could be made, of course, that the Westminster and senior MPs are currently together as part of the Five Eyes Intelligence United Kingdom rescinded a small part of its working on formulating a mutual skills Alliance, along with the United States, to global perspective when it left the European recognition agreement to be implemented take a stance against human rights abuses Union in 2020. However, a far stronger case by each of the four nations. by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and exists to suggest that our country needed Adopting this concept as part of a act as a barrier to hostile actions by state to take one step back to vault ten steps CANZUK trade deal would mean that British actors including Iran, Russia, and North forward. qualifications and skills credentials would Korea. Through pursuing closer relations with be recognised across Canada, Australia, and our closest partners on the world stage, the New Zealand, saving thousands of pounds We can ensure that our UK can vault into a new era of prosperity and years of retraining should a British “ combined defence budgets and opportunity. Where better to start than citizen choose to relocate to any of these of $110 billion collectively a strengthened partnership with Canada, countries and practice their profession, or safeguard democracy, human Australia, and New Zealand? Both publicly vice versa. and politically, these three nations are eager Naturally, the United Kingdom would rights, and the rule of law to work with us and promote a thriving and also receive highly-skilled workers from prosperous Global Britain for generations these three nations in return, who can As like-minded and trusted partners, to come. practice their profession or trade upon the four nations share signals, military, and The future is bright. Let us secure it arrival and contribute to ‘building back human intelligence for the benefit of global through CANZUK. better’ following the Covid-19 pandemic. security. Through increased cooperation And finally, foreign policy cooperation under a CANZUK arrangement, we can James Skinner is the Chief Executive of would ensure that our four countries speak ensure that our combined defence budgets CANZUK International

ROBIN MAYNARD Global family The Commonwealth deserves more respect, insists Andrew Rosindell MP

ver recent weeks and months, all play second fiddle, and instead plays a role The the talk has been about the G7, in the international arena that truly matches Common- ONATO, and the role that the United our history, ambitions, and values. wealth Kingdom can — and should — play in To do this, the UK needs to brings these enormously significant international take advantage of the enormous together people institutions. Now that we have left the opportunities that our role at the centre from a dazzling array of backgrounds, who European Union, the UK Government of the Commonwealth affords us. The nevertheless share a common identity. It is rightly expending significant energy Commonwealth is undoubtedly one of began with intrepid Brits setting sail, and on looking at alternative international the greatest products of British history, has now been transformed into a voluntary mechanisms through which to exercise our and acts as an undeniable force for good association of 54 independent countries, extensive soft power and influence. in international affairs. Our participation with Britain at its centre. These include some However, Global Britain must be much and leadership of the institution can allow of the largest and most populous — such as more than these alliances of developed, the UK to exercise truly global leadership India, with 1.6 billion people — and some Western nations. Global Britain must be in advancing our values, security, and of the smallest — such as Nauru, with a about ensuring that the UK doesn’t simply economic interests. population of 12,000. All 54 countries sign

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>> up to 16 core principles, which include human rights, freedom of expression, and the rule of law. Economically, the Commonwealth is dynamic. The combined GDP of members tops $10 trillion, or 14% of total global GDP. Half of the top 20 global emerging cities are in the Commonwealth, including Mumbai, Nairobi, and Kuala Lumpur.

The Commonwealth has “observed over 160 elections in nearly 40 countries since 1980, providing invaluable support Sergeant Donald Todd (RLC) for fledgling democracies suspended in 1999, and Zimbabwe was towards this vital international institution. suspended in 2002. This is regrettable. In 2012, the Foreign Although the Commonwealth has been Yet if the argument is that the Affairs Select Committee on which I sit criticised for being toothless — an example Commonwealth is not sufficiently effective, criticised the UK Government for not having being in 2013, when a summit was held this is surely also an argument for greater a “clear and coordinated strategy for its in Sri Lanka despite serious human rights UK involvement, both to ensure that our relations with the Commonwealth.” We have concerns — its record is more positive than values and interests are properly advanced, not come far enough since then in treating critics suggest. On democracy promotion, and to ensure that the Commonwealth this international institution with the the Commonwealth has observed over can be the force for good that it respect it deserves. 160 elections in nearly 40 countries since undoubtedly can be. As the home of the The UK can, and should, revive its 1980, providing invaluable support for Commonwealth Secretariat, and as one of Commonwealth approach by promoting fledgling democracies. On trade promotion, the world’s most prominent and forceful its expansion — bringing countries such it costs member states on average 21% proponents of liberal democratic values, the as Ireland into its orbit, for example. The less to trade with each other than with Commonwealth’s effectiveness requires our UK should also work to promote free trade non-member states. On good governance, active involvement. between member states. To reflect this Commonwealth nations make up Unfortunately, the UK’s current greater emphasis, the UK should fly the 7 of the top 10 spots on the approach does leave a bit to Commonwealth flag outside all British High Ibrahim Index, which ranks be desired. Take the recently Commissions. African nations using metrics published Integrated Finally, we must also learn to cherish such as human development, Review. While the G7 is and take pride in British history once economic opportunity, and mentioned on 20 occasions, again. Our national conversation about commitment to the rule of and NATO a whopping 45, the British Empire is parochial and myopic. law. the Commonwealth only gets The success of the Commonwealth, the The Commonwealth has 12 mentions, excluding when enduring influence of British culture and demonstrated it can and the document refers to the in particular Her Majesty The Queen, are all will take action against Foreign, Commonwealth, and indicative of a far more nuanced reality in members when there Development Office. The document which the British Empire helped to connect are clear violations does describe the Commonwealth the world and spread British values. The of Commonwealth as “an important institution Commonwealth is a force for good because norms. For in supporting an open and Britain was, is, and will continue to be a example, Nigeria resilient international order” force for good. was suspended but puts forward nothing in the late 1990s, in the way of a policy Andrew Rosindell MP is the Chair of the Pakistan was Michael Garnett approach or strategy APPG for the Commonwealth

32 PIVOTAL PARTNERS

ROBIN MAYNARD The truth about trade David Henig asks what free trading relationships mean in the twenty-first century

he truth about trade is that most we seek to maintain this. trade countries have their closest Free trade, though, is out of fashion. than either Trelationships with neighbours, and We can clearly see this in both US and the US or EU. trade deals are rarely transformational. But EU discussions on ‘bringing back jobs.’ That provides a post-Brexit Britain has many strengths Equally, in the UK, most self-proclaimed us with a platform. and opportunities. In a growing age of devotees of free trade are having to adopt We don’t need to be a ‘leader’ at the World protectionism, promoting free trade and the nineteenth century definition of tariff Trade Organisation (WTO) — whatever investment can be a winner, but only if we removal, rather than a more realistic that means. Rather, we should seek a closer understand that this is about more than just definition covering different regulations relationship than so far negotiated with the zero tariffs. and barriers to service provision. EU, but equally also thicken ties with the US Being blunt, we have to recognise that and others. The priority should be services We have to recognise that freeports and Free Trade Agreements are and regulatory barriers: the principle that “ freeports and Free Trade not really free trade, and the EU single with a roughly agreed regulatory level, we Agreements are not really market is free trade. The overwhelming seek to eliminate barriers to trade. Some free trade, and the EU single majority of modern trade barriers are readers might recognise a modernised UK regulatory, while tariffs are negligible. form of the single market in this vision. market is free trade That is politically inconvenient having left We could thus solve the sort of debates the EU, but it is the reality. It also does not we have seen over Australia or US trade Perhaps inconveniently for both sides invalidate leaving, because we can like the deals. Share our approach to a broad range of the interminable Brexit wars, in trade we economics, but not the politics. Recognising of challenges such as climate change or are already Global Britain. We sell goods all of this is the path to a sensible trade animal welfare, and compete on absolutely and services around the globe, and are the debate in the UK. equal terms with UK producers. May the home to world-class brands including Rolls We can say that the UK is, on balance, most competitive win. This also helps tackle Royce, JCB, the English Premier League, the more friendly to free the rather tired regulatory debate, the City of London, and Shakespeare. It is true answer being that regulatory agreements that around 50% of our trade is with enabling international cooperation are a Europe and a further 15% or so better path than outdated and unrealistic with the US, but it is entirely deregulatory programmes. normal to trade more with neighbours. It As a services exporter, we is important “ are a reluctant superpower, the second largest in the world, but slightly ashamed of being so

Sadly, right now, it seems like the UK Government would rather take the easy path of largely meaningless tariff reduction agreements. But whether the approach is tariff reduction or a single market minus, we need to think about the UK’s competitiveness and internal

33 PIVOTAL PARTNERS

>> distribution, with particular reference to tolerate our universities, broadcasting, of goodwill towards the UK from other the former manufacturing areas of the ‘Red sport, culture, fashion, and financial services countries, an implicit trust in our institutions Wall’. Although often blamed on trade, the sectors, to name but a few. Any sensible certainly when compared to international reduction in manufacturing jobs is mostly vision for trade has to tackle this, valuing competitors. Our anguished debates of related to increased productivity, such that much more highly those contributing to our the last few years and a Brexit they didn’t more is made with fewer staff. services success, and perhaps allowing us to fully understand are explained away by a In fact, the UK remains a strong move on from the nostalgia for factories. thought that we may well know better, or at manufacturer of goods including Rolls Most of all, the UK has to be a much the very least that we have our own ways of Royce engines, Scotch Whisky, JCB diggers, more welcoming environment for people doing things. and McLaren cars. We also participate in the and investors. Special schemes for Nobel The rest of the world thus believes in our supply chain for many other products from prizewinners are gimmicks compared to ability to find new paths to trade success in cars to chemicals and pharma-ceuticals the serious business of welcoming those the twenty-first century. There is no reason to engineering. Those supply chains are who want to trade with us, which means a we can’t do so, forging an updated Global predominantly regional and a reason for total change of mindset at the Home Office. Britain, once we abandon our sterile Brexit prioritising thickening EU ties. Just as a stable and international regulatory debate and views of a previous industrial As a services exporter, we are a reluctant approach will help attract international world. superpower, the second largest in the business, so a better approach to visas world, but slightly ashamed of being so. likewise. David Henig is the Director of the UK Trade Thus governments only seem to, at best, There is perhaps a surprising level Policy Project

Research update Patrick Hall highlights Bright Blue’s research output since the last edition

t’s been a busy six months for the research at the impact of the pandemic on young along team since the last magazine. We have adults aged 18 to 34. with Ibeen busy producing both extensive In the same month, we also launched earlier research papers as well as punchier analysis the first report commissioned by our cross- findings in our pieces, on policy areas ranging from electric party Tax Commission: Home truths. The Global green giant? vehicles to experiences on Universal Credit. report set out a new approach to taxing paper, have informed the launch of our new In March we produced our analysis English residential property to mitigate the petition calling on governments across the Shaky foundations, exploring how the regression and distortions of the current UK to increase fines for littering, to protect increase in claims for state support for system, and to help achieve Government nature and the taxpayer. housing during the pandemic differs by aims of levelling up and delivering net zero. Later this year, we will be attending each English local authority. It highlighted Following that, in July we published Conservative Party Conference and COP26, the consequences of the pandemic on Green money, proposing a three-part hosting a range of discussions. Keep up geographic inequality. Following this, plan for reforming the UK’s carbon pricing to date on all of Bright Blue’s forthcoming we assessed the financial experience of framework. Reforming carbon pricing will events via our website. Universal Credit claimants during the be absolutely essential for putting the UK on We have no plans to slow down. Bright pandemic in our analysis Benefit to all?, a credible, and fair, path to net zero by 2050. Blue will continue to produce high quality, which was released in June. In the same month, we released our impactful, evidence-based research to And it isn’t just those claiming state major Nature positive? report exploring defend liberal society. support who have been adversely affected public attitudes towards the conservation by the pandemic. In May, we released our of the natural environment, both here in the Patrick Hall is a Senior Research Fellow at analysis Increasingly precarious?, looking UK and abroad. Our findings in that report, Bright Blue

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ROBIN MAYNARD Smarter aid British aid can improve lives as well as project our values, argues Ryan Henson

time frame. The Indepen- dent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI) has found that “Frequent delays in the disbursement of funds, combined with the FCDO’s 80% rule – requiring that 80% of funds be spent by December of the financial year of disbursement – often reduces a 12-month programme to effectively nine or even six months with little notice.” Rushing to spend a legally imposed target before a tight deadline risks bad practice. A five-year UK Government time scale would strengthen long-term id is about our values. It offers Samantha Power, the head of the US aid objectives as well as delivering better our generation an opportunity to Agency for International Development. outcomes to aid recipients, while helping Asave and transform the lives of the A former Ambassador to the United to ensure better value for money. The aid world’s poorest people, and thereby build a Nations and Pulitzer-prize winning war target should also be synchronised with better world. correspondent, Power also sits on the US the Comprehensive Spending Review. Aid is also in our national interest. It stops National Security Council, emphasising the This would offer greater alignment with the spread of epidemics, clears landmines, interconnectedness of defence, diplomacy, departmental allocations and provide resolves conflicts, and builds free and fair and development. Although the Foreign, reassurance that aid is being spent both democracies, making Britain healthier, safer, Commonwealth, and Development Office strategically, and in keeping with our and more prosperous. As we adjust to a (FCDO) was established to better integrate foreign policy and defence objectives. post-pandemic world and the rise of an diplomacy and development, Samantha increasingly hostile China, aid can remain Power has no opposite number in the UK In the coming years China both an expression of our values, and a pillar Government. “ will continue to weaponise of our foreign and defence strategies. To do To deliver maximum impact, aid needs a international development so it must become more effective, flexible, senior champion in Whitehall with sufficient with its Belt and Road Initiative and smarter. political clout to support the Foreign Secretary, prevent waste, and ensure aid and push into Africa A five-year time scale is focused on poverty reduction, while “ would strengthen long- supporting our foreign policy and defence Finally, delivering smarter aid depends term aid objectives as objectives. A senior figure such as the on the full aid budget being replenished as well as delivering better former Leader of the Scottish Conservatives, quickly as possible. The Prime Minister said Ruth Davidson, might also communicate at the time the cut to aid to 0.5% of Gross outcomes to aid recipients the lifesaving work of British aid to those National Income (GNI) was announced sceptical taxpayers on whose generosity aid that “the UK will remain a world leader in To make aid more effective, the Prime depends. international development and we will Minister should appoint a Minister for To make aid more flexible, the aid target return to our commitment to spend 0.7% Development of a similar calibre to should be moved to a multi-year rolling of GNI on development when the fiscal

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>> situation allows.” The Government has the UK should be undertaking the biggest to weaponise international development since revealed that will be when the Office programme of investment in defence with its Belt and Road Initiative and push for Budget Responsibility’s fiscal forecast budget for 30 years. into Africa, while Russia will seek to maintain shows that, “on a sustainable basis, the UK Similarly, as the Integrated Review its geopolitical position by working to is not borrowing to finance day-to-day made clear, the FCDO was created as prevent peace in failed states and places spending and underlying debt is falling”. a springboard for the UK’s post-Brexit like Syria. Meanwhile, the pandemic has By 2023, the temporary cut to aid will have international efforts, fully integrating revealed that none are safe until all are already saved approximately £10 billion, diplomacy and development to better safe. The world needs Britain’s leadership in more than double the amount set aside address the clear link between extreme international development. for the Levelling Up Fund that will support poverty and the impact of climate change in Smarter aid, in support of our diplomacy town centres and high street regeneration. the developing world, and our security and and defence objectives, can both save and All who recognise the enormous extent to prosperity at home. improve lives, defend vulnerable people which the UK’s soft power is supported by Defence, diplomacy, and development from authoritarian advances, and keep its commitment to the 0.7% target will wish are the three pillars holding up Global British values at the heart of international to see it return as soon as possible. Britain, and our success on the world stage affairs in the twenty-first century. Protecting the British people and depends on the integrated impact of all our democracy is the first duty of all three. Ryan Henson is the Chief Executive of the governments. It is only right, then, that In the coming years China will continue Coalition for Global Prosperity

MIATTA FAHNBULLEH Global force for good? The UK’s foreign deeds don’t match its ambition, asserts Danny Sriskandarajah

he Government’s pledge to project new emissions cuts and climate finance. say it: a post-Brexit ‘Global Britain’ is In this pivotal year, the decisions the a small Thugely welcome and timely. With no Government makes will show whether group of shortage of global challenges, I believe the the UK can live up to aspirations to be a countries that UK has the potential to play a critical role as meaningful player on the world stage. make and buy the a thoughtful, responsible global citizen. As majority of the world’s vaccines control the the Prime Minister says, we need “to use the The UK is holding vaccine fate of the rest of the world.” full spectrum of our abilities … to engage “ recipes hostage by blocking Around three quarters of all doses with and help the rest of the world.” the proposal at the WTO have been administered in ten countries, Yet the gap between words and action to temporarily suspend rules while mass vaccination in developing seems scarily wide. Take the recent G7 countries may not happen till 2024 at Summit. This was an opportunity for Boris on intellectual property the earliest. Right now parts of Africa are Johnson to prove that Global Britain had being hit by a third deadly wave, delays are the diplomatic clout to drive forward urgent A key test will be its willingness to pull putting lives at risk, increasing the threat of collective action to respond to the biggest out all the stops to ensure everyone on vaccine-proof mutations, and costing the global challenges of the day: a once-in-a- the planet has a coronavirus jab as quickly global economy an estimated $9 trillion. century public health catastrophe, which as possible, building on the leadership While it is undoubtedly a matter of has already killed millions of people, shown in the successful domestic rollout. national pride that the Oxford-AstraZeneca and the climate emergency. Yet the Rich countries like the UK hold the key to vaccine, around 97% taxpayer-funded, is summit spectacularly failed to deliver unlocking the vaccine supply shortage. As being sold at cost price for the duration of an adequate plan to vaccinate the world the head of the World Health Organisation the pandemic and is the main supplier to against Covid-19, or to agree ambitious (WHO) put it: “There is no diplomatic way to the COVAX scheme for developing

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>> countries, it is wrong for the Prime years left to prevent climate breakdown, international partners and increase its Minister to suggest that Global Britain’s the UK has a particular responsibility as ability to make a significant contribution to responsibility to the world ends there. COP26 host to set the world onto a safer tackling global challenges, at a time when Firstly, COVAX’s main manufacturer, the track, ensuring countries commit to their coronavirus is pushing millions into poverty Serum Institute, won’t be able to supply fair share of carbon cuts to limit global and widening the divide between rich and more doses this year due to demand in warming to 1.5°C. Yet the UK’s laudable poor. With nationalism rising and civic space India. Secondly, the UK’s commitment to target to cut emissions by 78% by 2035 shrinking around the globe, there’s a need donate 30 million doses to developing compared to 1990 levels is undermined for a Britain that can stand up for a liberal, countries this year, as part of a billion by approving a new coal mine in Cumbria rules-based world order and multilateralism, pledged by the G7, is welcome, but far and new licenses for North Sea oil and and play a part in forging more inclusive below the 11 billion doses the WHO says are gas exploration. Furthermore, flagrantly processes and new alliances based on needed. breaking its own promises to the world’s shared values. The choices Britain makes Most importantly, the UK is holding poorest by cutting the aid budget to 0.5% now will have consequences far beyond our vaccine recipes hostage by blocking of Gross National Income (GNI) will make it borders. When we look back in ten or 20 the proposal at the WTO to temporarily an uphill struggle to persuade other nations years, will we be able to say with confidence suspend rules on intellectual property for to increase funding to communities on the that we were on the right side of history? Covid-19 vaccines and know-how, so that frontlines of the climate crisis. more qualified manufacturers can make Reversing these decisions would Danny Sriskandarajah is the Chief enough vaccines for everyone. If the UK help the UK to boost its credibility among Executive of Oxfam GB wants to be taken seriously as a guardian of global health security, through its newly established International Pandemic Preparedness Partnership, then this position needs an urgent rethink. The fact that this proposal is supported by 100 countries including the US and France could leave the UK looking isolated, insular and in danger of losing friends. Likewise on climate, the UK’s deeds do not yet match its stated ambition. With nine Oxfam

Latest analysis

Under stress? The experiences of benefit claimants during the pandemic Phoebe Arslanagic-Wakefield As part of Bright Blue’s ongoing project examining the inequalities of home working during the Covid-19 pandemic, we investigated differences in the experiences of benefit claimants and the rest of the public in the first year of the pandemic.

Our analysis uncovers two types of experience during the pandemic where significant differences between benefit claimants and the rest of the public emerge: financial and relational.

37 FIXING THE BROKEN PROPERTY TAX SYSTEM

THE CASE FOR REFORMING OUR UNFAIR PROPERTY TAXES IS BECOMING HARDER AND HARDER FOR POLITICIANS TO IGNORE.

Council tax is outdated and unjust. It provides significant advantages to those who have - or are from families with - substantial wealth, and is quite punishing to those with relatively little.

To fix the problem, Bright Blue recently backed an Annual Proportional Property Tax on the current capital value of houses. Fairer Share is pushing for this kind of reform as well. We propose scrapping council tax and stamp duty and bringing in a proportional property tax set at a flat rate of 0.48% of a property’s value.

This would mean lower bills for 76% of households across England. On average, households would pay £435 less property tax a year. With a proportional property tax we would also make a major stride forwards towards achieving intergenerational fairness. No longer would struggling renters face high council tax bills while many older homeowners in expensive properties get a better deal.

Time for action

There is no reason for ministers to delay. Work by the International Property Tax Institute shows there is no technical problem with revaluations. Furthermore, our model has measures in place to protect ‘asset rich, cash poor’ homeowners with a cap on any increase at the point of implementation of £100 per month and the option to defer payments at notional interest rates until point of sale. And all households would benefit from the permanent abolition of stamp duty.

Senior figures from across the political spectrum - such David Gauke, Margaret Hodge and Vince Cable - have all backed radical property tax reform. At the Fairer Share campaign, we have significant support from both Conservative and Labour MPs.

As the Government prepares to publish its levelling up white paper later this year, now is the time for action. If levelling up is to be a reality, then we need to have a fairer property tax system.

To support our campaign please head to www.fairershare.org.uk REVIEWS FIXING THE BROKEN Shuggie Bain PROPERTY TAX SYSTEM Douglas Stuart debuts with a tragic yet beautiful story of familial love

Ryan Shorthouse Big Shug’s brutality and infidelity makes Cheer- Chief Executive, Bright Blue Agnes’ desperate. Eventually, he leaves fully, a once proud woman to the dole and a year of ome of the best dramas of recent drink. Life in Pithead becomes bleaker: hope does years – on screen and in books – have Agnes leaves her children neglected and come. Agnes goes Sdocumented the vicissitudes of hungry, reaching for lager to puncture to an AA group, on the other side of town motherhood. Talented feminist writers are the depression, living solely for the froth to avoid any neighbourly embarrassment. ensuring we really do recognise the shit, to start a sweet but short-term respite. She’s inspired and abstains. A regular night THE CASE FOR REFORMING OUR UNFAIR PROPERTY TAXES IS BECOMING quite frankly, that women can go through It overwhelms her, so much that ‘uncles’ shift at a petrol station follows, where taxi raising children. keep visiting the house, to ensure a steady drivers circle to chat with attractive Agnes. HARDER AND HARDER FOR POLITICIANS TO IGNORE. Maggie O’Farrell’s book, Hamnet, puts supply. One becomes a boyfriend, the widower the mother of Shakespeare’s dead boy, On one New Year’s Eve, Shuggie panics Eugene, “solid and true”. Council tax is outdated and unjust. It provides significant advantages to those who have - or are from Agnes, at the centre of events. On television, when his mother is missing. He shrewdly families with - substantial wealth, and is quite punishing to those with relatively little. we’ve had the side-splitting Motherland. redials to locate her, at a party on the other It sounds sadistic, but the More solemnly, Mare of Easttown, and side of town. After a taxi ride, paid for with “storytelling is so suspenseful, To fix the problem, Bright Blue recently backed an Annual Proportional Property Tax on the current capital more brutally, The Handmaid’s Tale, have the last bit of money for the meter, he finds that you want to find out value of houses. Fairer Share is pushing for this kind of reform as well. We propose scrapping council tax and electrified. her on a bed under some coats: “Slowly she whether life could become any stamp duty and bringing in a proportional property tax set at a flat rate of 0.48% of a property’s value. Douglas Stuart’ award-winning, semi- emerged, half-naked and crumpled, from autobiographical debut novel, Shuggie the heap… From beneath the heavy coats more dangerous or tragic This would mean lower bills for 76% of households across England. On average, households would pay £435 Bain, offers a new perspective: a little boy, emerged her white legs and small feet. who worships, and is eventually left to care Shuggie stopped and looked at her there, You know this won’t last, though. less property tax a year. With a proportional property tax we would also make a major stride forwards for, his alcoholic mother, another Agnes. and in the tangle and the hallway light Not least because of the rather towards achieving intergenerational fairness. No longer would struggling renters face high council tax bills he saw that her black Pretty Pollys had unnecessary prologue, where we while many older homeowners in expensive properties get a better deal. Agnes leaves her children been ripped from toe to waist.” learn Shuggie is living by himself in “ neglected and hungry, This is grinding and graphic the South Side in the early 1990s as Time for action reaching for lager to puncture destitution, difficult to read. an older teenager. Eugene wants the depression, living solely Indeed, the author does have him and Agnes to be a normal There is no reason for ministers to delay. Work by the International Property Tax Institute shows there is no a tendency at times to pack couple, enjoying a glass of wine or for the... short-term respite technical problem with revaluations. Furthermore, our model has measures in place to protect ‘asset rich, sentences with too much two over dinners out. Eventually cash poor’ homeowners with a cap on any increase at the point of implementation of £100 per month and description, necessitating he gets his way. But the addiction the option to defer payments at notional interest rates until point of sale. And all households would benefit Set in sink estates on the periphery rereading. Which is frustrating: comes back. from the permanent abolition of stamp duty. of Glasgow in the 1980s, the Bain family because the story, though Unable to cope with her descends and deteriorates alongside terribly alcoholism any longer, people Picador Senior figures from across the political spectrum - such David Gauke, Margaret Hodge and Vince Cable - have communities that once centred around sad, is so around all backed radical property tax reform. At the Fairer Share campaign, we have significant support from both coal mines. The rather glamorous and gripping. Agnes – good-looking Agnes leaves a steady Eddie, It sounds sadistic, but the her lovers, Conservative and Labour MPs. whom she nicknames “the good Catholic”, storytelling is so suspenseful, her children – always leave. for the cockier “Big Shug”, a protestant taxi that you want to find out whether Leek, the artistic and protective As the Government prepares to publish its levelling up white paper later this year, now is the time for action. driver, who is a violent womaniser. The first life could become any more big brother, is the last to go. Only If levelling up is to be a reality, then we need to have a fairer property tax system. marriage provides two children: Leek and dangerous or tragic than it already is Shuggie, eleven years old, is left Catherine, the much older stepsiblings of for Shuggie and his beloved mother. to support her, skipping school. To support our campaign please head to www.fairershare.org.uk the protagonist, little Shuggie, the quirky Despite her behaviour, the author She slits her wrists, but recovers, and only offspring of the second. makes you want the best for her. and so

39 REVIEWS

>> they seek a new life in the East End. with ponies. He is highly defensive of his who a boy from his block initially tried to Nothing changes: she’s straight on the mother, even when she is falling apart: set him up with. Both had mothers on the drink the day they arrive. Some time “Shuggie heard the nurse say to a male bottle. He, at first cautiously then playfully, later he notices she’s not breathing after attendant that she thought for sure Agnes divulges his homosexuality to her. Finally, another session; but, sitting painlessly and was a working girl. ‘She is not’, said Shuggie, he is free. peacefully, he does not have the will to fight quite proudly. ‘My mother has never worked her passing. a day in her life. She’s far too good-looking Shuggie Bain; All the gloominess is bearable because for that’.” Douglas Stuart; of just how marvellous, hilarious, and Towards the end of the book, after his Picador; exceptional Shuggie is. He’s ‘different’: he mother’s death, he deepens his friendship 448 pages. just doesn’t get football and likes playing with Leanne Kelly, a girl from the South Side, Published 6 August 2020.

Climate and the clash of nations Daniel Yergin sets out the geopolitical landscape of the world in climate crisis

Andrew Leming – that we have entered a new era of energy spraw- Researcher, Bright Blue geopolitics. For instance, Yergin traces the ling Belt origins of the “shale revolution” in the US and Road aniel Yergin’s The new map: and demonstrates how hydraulic fracturing Initiative. energy, climate, and the clash technologies dramatically increased the size Another key Dof nations charts the dynamic of its existing oil and gas reserves. These flashpoint in China’s approach to shifting landscape of energy geopolitics in the technologies helped the US overtake Russia its own energy map is the South China Sea, twenty-first century, set against the and Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading the waterway through which 80% of its backdrop of accelerating climate change. exporter of oil and natural gas. However, energy imports flow and the site of rising The result is a highly engaging work Yergin does not engage with a key question geopolitical tensions with the US. that combines in a coherent narrative a here: namely, whether the booming oil and Indeed, these two flashpoints illustrate collection of nationally-focused energy case gas industry in the US will undermine the how the US and China are shifting to studies, drawing together Yergin’s analysis country’s commitment to upholding its “strategy rivalry.” He argues that these of emerging technologies, market dynamics, climate obligations under the 2015 Paris countries form a de facto G2, more powerful and international relations, as well as the Agreement. and influential in world politics than the G20 key players driving them. states combined. However, while the US and Yergin builds on themes explored in his China is the world’s largest China together comprise 40% of the world’s 2011 book, The quest: energy, security, “producer of steel, aluminium, GDP and 50% of its military spending, their and the remaking of the modern world. and computers, and one of energy maps diverge significantly: whereas But rapid change in global energy affairs the most important rare China imports 75% of its oil and 40% of its over the last decade means that the gas, the United States has become a leading earth mineral producers historical trends outlined in The quest are exporter of both. brought into sharper relief in The new map. Nonetheless, Yergin slightly understates He carefully analyses how current trends of Similarly, Yergin also analyses China’s just how important China is for making energy production, resource competition, position in the energy landscape. The the green energy transition. China’s and climate change are converging in “new author stresses that China aims to reassert dependence on fossil fuel imports continues cold wars” between major powers, especially its geopolitical sovereignty and power by to prop up the markets of key oil and gas the United States and China. “redrawing the energy map”, especially states, in particular Russia. The author Yergin contends – correctly, in my view across Eurasia and Africa, through its shows how the Chinese Communist Party’s

40 REVIEWS

>> “prepayment” of $80 billion in 2005 to conflict are inevitable along “the path the green transition: the volatility of climate Rosneft, the Russian state oil company, toward a lower-carbon world”. But politics, set against the dramatic physical ensured that oil and gas will flow between the author does strike an optimistic, changes to come. While climate has risen them for until 2030. if measured, tone on the potential for to the top of the political agenda among On the other hand, if the “marriage of technology to assist our efforts to address powerful states, precisely how Yergin’s Germany’s environmental politics with climate change. He correctly states that energy maps and climate politics combine Chinese manufacturing prowess” brought energy systems will include high-carbon to shape geopolitical competition will likely solar panels to global energy markets in the energy over the coming decades, but be the defining question of the twenty-first 1990s, the same can be said of the West’s lower-carbon sources will take a greater century. relationship with China today. China is the share, with solar panels, wind turbines, and world’s largest producer of steel, aluminium, nuclear being the “main engines” of meeting The new map: energy, climate, and the and computers, and one of the most our climate goals. clash of nations; important rare earth mineral producers – all Whereas other energy transitions Daniel Yergin; of which are required for the West’s electric were primarily driven by commercial and Penguin Press; vehicles and wind turbines. technological factors, the acceleration of 512 pages. Climate and the clash of nations Yergin argues that competition and climate change adds a new dimension to Published 15 September 2020.

A swim in a pond in the rain George Saunders delivers a tour of the weird and wonderful of Russian classics

Phoebe Arslanagic-Wakefield Accompanying the reader through each here is Senior Researcher, Bright Blue story, we are invited to take the place of a “always student on Saunders’ extremely competitive be he premise of George Saunders’ Russian short story course at Syracuse. escalating”. A swim in a pond in the rain is It is good to be a student again. With He shows us Tdeceptively simple. Saunders, a warmth and humility, Saunders pries open how Tolstoy uses structure and pattern to renowned creative writing professor at each of the seven stories and prompts us manipulate the tension of the narrative. Syracuse University, presents us with seven to interrogate their mechanisms. What translated short stories: three from Chekhov, is Chekhov showing us about Marya Saunders avoids an overly two from Tolstoy, and one each from Vasilyevna, the unhappy school mistress? “technical approach by asking Turgenev and Gogol. How does Tolstoy make us afraid as two us to consider the humanist They range from the surreal to the men travel out into the snow on a cold day? capability of these stories quietly devastating. In Gogol’s The nose, Why is Turgenev taking so long to get to the Major Kovalyov awakes to find that his nose point? to morally transform us has abandoned its post on his face in favour Saunders uses these questions to deftly of gallivanting across St Petersburg. After extract vital lessons about the nature of Saunders teaches us that “pattern creates tracking it down, Kovalyov is flummoxed to good writing. In Tolstoy’s Master and man, propulsion”. In Chekhov’s comic, but pathos- find his nose wearing the uniform of a high- a peasant and a landowner set out for a laden, The darling, the beautiful Olenka, ranking official, and is unsure of the social short journey by sleigh in wintertime. They the titular ‘darling’, falls in love with Kukin etiquette of approaching it. Meanwhile, in get lost. Twice. And reach safety. Twice. the theatre owner. She falls hard, and so Chekhov’s The cart, an underpaid, worn- Neither of these times do the travellers does he. Soon, the theatre is her greatest down school mistress ponders her dreary appear to comprehend the lurking danger, passion and sole conversation topic. They rural life and the things she has lost. even as the reader does. They get lost a third are very happy together. But tragedy strikes! Alongside this is Saunders’ commentary. time. The lesson that Saunders draws out Kukin dies, Olenka grieves.

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>> Not to worry, however, because Vasily learn something about being human, about ethical and philosophical communication is the timber merchant arrives. She falls hard, what it means to be good and our capacity also intensely appealing, particularly in the and so does he. Soon, timber is her greatest for it. context of the brevity and skill of the short passion and sole conversation topic; the In Chekhov’s The cart, precious little stories he has selected for analysis. concept of the theatre now appears to takes place in the way of action. But when While instructive for would-be authors, A repulse her. They are very happy together. Marya undergoes a temporary but powerful swim in a pond in the rain is enthusing and But tragedy strikes! Vasily dies, Olenka mental shift, we are there. Marya might restorative for those of us who find less time grieves. Chekhov establishes this pattern slip back into her dreary and hopeless and patience for reading fiction than we with a comedic and ruthless efficiency, and world, but our understanding of her has once did. Short and unpretentious, it is also then proceeds to subvert it and surprise us. irrevocably transformed. Marya has not a perfectly-formed gateway drug into the Alongside these writing lessons, changed, but we have. Chekhov has pulled Russian greats — you will undoubtedly find Saunders avoids an overly technical back the curtain into a stranger’s inner yourself reaching for more. approach by asking us to consider the life and made us more empathetic in the humanist capability of these stories to process. A swim in a pond in the rain; morally transform us. In Tolstoy’s Master Saunders’ optimistic faith in the ability George Saunders; and man, we watch a flawed man make a of these stories, and fiction in general, to Bloomsbury Publishing; despicable decision. And then the right one. make us better people borders on the naïve. 432 pages. Saunders posits that Tolstoy intends us to But his defence of narrative as a tool of Published 12 January 2021.

TV: Is Covid racist? David Harewood investigates the impact of Covid-19 on ethnic minorities

Zeenath Chowdhury Borough of Brent. The borough had the up 95% Events Assistant, Bright Blue highest overall Covid-19 mortality rate of the out of all regions in England from March doctors n an explorative documentary by the to June 2020, and was the first to need an who died BBC called Why is Covid killing people emergency testing centre, he explains. during this Iof colour?, actor David Harewood Residents of this borough were noted to be pandemic. Ultimately, POCs are more likely takes us through a journey of questions five times more likely to contract the virus to be key workers, where they are more and discovery to examine the worrying and suffer serious symptoms. It is also the likely to contract and spread the virus, correlation between being a person most ethnically diverse borough in the UK. whereas white people are more likely to of colour (POC) and the probability of Dr Guddi Singh explains that what is be in management roles. Similarly, ethnic becoming seriously ill from Covid-19. seen in Brent is mirrored throughout the UK. minorities have more overcrowded homes A bleak picture is painted of the many The disparities aren’t to do with genetics, which leads to less social distancing. underlying inequalities which marr our supporting her argument well by stating healthcare system, which have all been that many African and Asian countries have This documentary should act exposed and exacerbated during the lower rates of Covid-19 deaths compared to “ as a call to arms to address pandemic. Speaking to a number of medical countries like the US and the UK. However, these inequalities, which have professionals including Dr Tariq Husain, within these Western countries, the led to the disproportionate Dr Marina Sultan, and Dr Guddi Singh, incidence of Covid-19 is disproportionately Harewood unravels a few key concepts seen in POC. impact of the pandemic which are crucial to making sense of the She also rules out income as an exclusive correlation. variable, explaining that doctors from ethnic Another important concept known as He begins his journey in the London minority backgrounds, who earn well, made ‘weathering’ was explained by Professor

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>> Arline Geronimus. She broke down pain management. the pandemic and successfully took into how there is a cumulative and physical Such experiences help to explain account intersectional issues regarding race consequence of the anxiety an individual why POCs are less likely to want to take and socioeconomic status. bears when they are bullied, taunted, or a vaccine: because they have underlying Harewood ends the documentary with treated in a prejudiced manner over a health issues to which they fear the vaccine a pivotal statement: “If those in power don’t lifetime. Weathering ages the body and has not been adjusted, and because they acknowledge the damage that systemic causes defects in our immune systems. have a general lacking of trust when it racism is doing to the health of millions of Many ethnic minorities develop comes to the healthcare system, feeling people, we face an uphill struggle to affect underlying health issues which are caused like healthcare professionals wouldn’t positive change.” by factors such as weathering, being housed understand their symptoms or concerns. Harewood sheds light on pressing issues in poor air quality areas and poor diets due The documentary ends with a brief that need to be addressed: inequalities to not being able to afford healthy meals. conversation with the Equalities Minister within healthcare, employment, and These underlying conditions then mean that Kemi Badenoch MP. She dismissed the housing systems. POCs may have found they are more likely to suffer poorer health notion that systemic racism played a part it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to outcomes and die from Covid-19. in disproportionate infection and deaths stay safe due to their front-facing jobs, Harewood hesitantly suggests that the rates by Covid-19. She also stated that overcrowded homes, and lack of safe healthcare system could be institutionally POCs can progress up the social ladder working conditions. racist, but not in an overt way. He and Dr due to the education system. Harewood Badenoch fails to acknowledge there Singh agree that it is the subconscious rightly challenges her comments stating is an immense struggle POCs face to work biases which aggregate into a divergent that society operates in a way which their way up the social ladder due to such experience for different patients based disadvantages POCs through either institutional inequalities. on their ethnicity. For example, a study conscious or unconscious racism in This documentary should act as a found that doctors incorrectly assumed institutions such as employment, education, call to arms to address these underlying TV: Is Covid racist? black patients could endure more pain and and healthcare. inequalities, which have led to the interpreted their expressions as aggression. This documentary captures the struggles disproportionate impact of the pandemic This leads to black patients receiving less and inequalities faced by POCs during on POCs.

James Eades

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