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POLL on HOLYROOD VOTING INTENTION Published 12Th November 2015

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POLL on HOLYROOD VOTING INTENTION Published 12Th November 2015 POLL ON HOLYROOD VOTING INTENTION Published 12th November 2015 As the leading supplier of opinion polls within Scotland for over 30 years, TNS has recently published public opinion polling on the Scottish Independence referendum and on voting intentions in Scotland for the 2015 General Election. TNS is now conducting a series of monthly polling to assess the current standing of the parties in Scotland in respect of popular voting intentions as we move towards the next Scottish Parliament election in May 2016. This latest poll was published on 12th November 2015. TNS is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abides by its rules. We also operate within the Code of Conduct of the Market Research Society (MRS). In accordance with these rules the following information is provided: Sample size 1034 Fieldwork dates 16th October – 4th November 2015 Interview method Face-to-face, in-home CAPI Population sampled All adults aged 16+ in Scotland Sampling method The poll was conducted through our Omnibus, Scottish Opinion Survey. For this survey, sampling points are selected to be representative of Scotland demographically and geographically. Within each sampling point, a quota sampling method is used for respondent selection. Data weighting Data is weighted to the profile of all adults aged 18+ in Scotland, based on population profile estimates from the BARB (Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board) Establishment Report 2011, Mid year population estimates 2011 and the 2001 Census. Weighting is carried out in relation to working status within gender, age, social grade and electoral region. Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of vote from the 2015 General Election in Scotland (as recorded at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland), and turnout and share of constituency vote from the 2011 Holyrood election (as recorded in SPICe Briefing 11-29 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Results). Unweighted and weighted bases are shown at the top of each data table. Questions The data tables show the question wording in full Further enquiries [email protected] Page 1 Scottish Politics - October 2015 JN260180073 Table 1 Q4a/Q4b. The next election for the Scottish Parliament will be held in May 2016. Which party do you intend to vote for when choosing your constituency MSP? (Respondents initially stating undecided/refused then asked: Which party would you be most inclined to vote for when choosing your constituency MSP?) BASE: All aged 16+ in Scotland SEX AGE SEG SEG Total Male Female 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 16-34 35-54 55+ AB C1 C2 DE ABC1 C2DE Unweighted base 1034 492 542 113 152 132 143 177 317 265 275 494 246 280 224 284 526 508 Weighted base 1034 496 538 149 162 168 185 157 212 311 353 369 222 294 209 309 516 518 Conservative 70 36 34 4 5 11 12 9 28 9 23 38 26 18 15 10 44 25 7% 7% 6% 3% 3% 6% 7% 6% 13% 3% 6% 10% 12% 6% 7% 3% 9% 5% Labour 140 56 84 7 15 24 26 30 39 21 50 68 27 29 34 51 56 84 14% 11% 16% 4% 9% 14% 14% 19% 18% 7% 14% 19% 12% 10% 16% 16% 11% 16% Liberal Democrat 25 12 13 3 - 2 2 7 12 3 3 19 16 6 1 2 22 3 2% 2% 2% 2% - 1% 1% 4% 6% 1% 1% 5% 7% 2% * 1% 4% 1% S.N.P. 339 183 156 45 63 56 73 53 49 108 128 102 61 95 80 103 156 183 33% 37% 29% 30% 39% 33% 39% 34% 23% 35% 36% 28% 27% 32% 38% 33% 30% 35% Other candidate or party 15 12 3 3 * 2 6 2 1 3 8 3 1 6 - 8 7 8 1% 2% 1% 2% * 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% - 2% 1% 1% Undecided 285 115 170 65 43 38 46 32 62 108 84 94 63 91 57 75 154 131 28% 23% 32% 44% 26% 22% 25% 20% 29% 35% 24% 25% 28% 31% 27% 24% 30% 25% Refused 41 15 26 - 3 8 9 9 12 3 17 21 15 14 6 6 28 12 4% 3% 5% - 2% 5% 5% 6% 5% 1% 5% 6% 7% 5% 3% 2% 6% 2% Would not vote 120 68 52 23 33 28 12 15 9 56 40 24 13 36 17 54 49 71 12% 14% 10% 15% 21% 17% 6% 10% 4% 18% 11% 7% 6% 12% 8% 17% 10% 14% Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 16th October - 4th November 2015 Page 2 Scottish Politics - October 2015 JN260180073 Table 1 Q4a/Q4b. The next election for the Scottish Parliament will be held in May 2016. Which party do you intend to vote for when choosing your constituency MSP? (Respondents initially stating undecided/refused then asked: Which party would you be most inclined to vote for when choosing your constituency MSP?) BASE: All aged 16+ in Scotland AREA AREA North Mid & Lothia Centra Glasgo East/ Total H&I East Fife ns l w West South West South North Unweighted base 1034 77 149 170 149 124 173 91 101 430 314 290 Weighted base 1034 83 134 134 134 145 134 134 134 474 297 263 Conservative 70 2 15 18 14 2 4 5 10 15 29 26 7% 2% 11% 13% 11% 2% 3% 3% 7% 3% 10% 10% Labour 140 5 15 16 21 13 14 26 30 69 46 25 14% 6% 11% 12% 15% 9% 11% 19% 22% 15% 15% 10% Liberal Democrat 25 4 1 3 13 - 4 - 1 5 13 7 2% 5% * 2% 9% - 3% - 1% 1% 4% 3% S.N.P. 339 35 41 43 44 48 46 40 43 156 97 86 33% 42% 30% 32% 33% 33% 34% 29% 32% 33% 33% 33% Other candidate or party 15 2 - 2 2 6 1 1 2 9 2 3 1% 2% - 1% 1% 4% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% Undecided 285 21 41 34 25 48 42 44 30 139 72 74 28% 25% 30% 25% 19% 33% 31% 33% 23% 29% 24% 28% Refused 41 1 5 7 3 14 3 6 1 24 7 10 4% 1% 4% 6% 2% 10% 3% 4% 1% 5% 2% 4% Would not vote 120 13 17 11 13 14 20 14 17 57 31 32 12% 16% 13% 8% 10% 10% 15% 11% 13% 12% 10% 12% Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 16th October - 4th November 2015 Page 3 Scottish Politics - October 2015 JN260180073 Table 1 Q4a/Q4b. The next election for the Scottish Parliament will be held in May 2016. Which party do you intend to vote for when choosing your constituency MSP? (Respondents initially stating undecided/refused then asked: Which party would you be most inclined to vote for when choosing your constituency MSP?) BASE: All aged 16+ in Scotland Certai n to Party Supports for Holyrood constituency vote 2015 General Election vote Libera Libera l l Didn't Conser Democr Undeci Holyro Conser Democr Vote / Total vative Labour at SNP Other ded od vative Labour at SNP Other CR Unweighted base 1034 68 146 20 369 18 252 671 101 184 21 390 26 312 Weighted base 1034 70 140 25 339 15 285 640 111 178 55 368 23 299 Conservative 70 70 - - - - - 47 61 5 - - - 4 7% 100% - - - - - 7% 55% 3% - - - 1% Labour 140 - 140 - - - - 106 4 114 - 13 1 8 14% - 100% - - - - 17% 4% 64% - 3% 4% 3% Liberal Democrat 25 - - 25 - - - 20 3 2 17 - * 3 2% - - 100% - - - 3% 3% 1% 31% - 1% 1% S.N.P. 339 - - - 339 - - 239 1 5 10 292 1 30 33% - - - 100% - - 37% 1% 3% 18% 79% 4% 10% Other candidate or party 15 - - - - 15 - 13 1 2 - 3 6 3 1% - - - - 100% - 2% * 1% - 1% 26% 1% Undecided 285 - - - - - 285 179 39 45 27 53 11 110 28% - - - - - 100% 28% 35% 25% 49% 14% 46% 37% Refused 41 - - - - - - 36 3 3 - 2 1 32 4% - - - - - - 6% 3% 2% - 1% 2% 11% Would not vote 120 - - - - - - - - 1 1 5 4 109 12% - - - - - - - - 1% 3% 1% 16% 36% Prepared by TNS Fieldwork : 16th October - 4th November 2015 Page 4 Scottish Politics - October 2015 JN260180073 Table 2 Q4a/Q4b. The next election for the Scottish Parliament will be held in May 2016. Which party do you intend to vote for when choosing your constituency MSP? (Respondents initially stating undecided/refused then asked: Which party would you be most inclined to vote for when choosing your constituency MSP?) BASE: All committed voters aged 16+ SEX AGE SEG SEG Total Male Female 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 16-34 35-54 55+ AB C1 C2 DE ABC1 C2DE Unweighted base 621 312 309 44 77 78 101 117 204 121 179 321 160 155 142 164 315 306 Weighted base 588 299 289 61 84 94 118 101 130 144 213 230 131 153 129 174 285 303 Conservative 70 36 34 4 5 11 12 9 28 9 23 38 26 18 15 10 44 25 12% 12% 12% 7% 6% 11% 10% 9% 22% 6% 11% 16% 20% 12% 12% 6% 16% 8% Labour 140 56 84 7 15 24 26 30 39 21 50 68 27 29 34 51 56 84 24% 19% 29% 11% 18% 26% 22% 29% 30% 15% 23% 30% 20% 19% 26% 29% 20% 28% Liberal Democrat 25 12 13 3 - 2 2 7 12 3 3 19 16 6 1 2 22 3 4% 4% 4% 4% - 2% 1% 7% 9% 2% 2% 8% 12% 4% 1% 1% 8% 1% S.N.P.
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