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Perceptionsjournal of International Affairs PERCEPTIONSJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Power Shifts in East Asia: Balance of Power vs. Liberal Institutionalism Namrata GOSWAMI EU- East Asia Relations: Effects of the Global Financial and Eurozone Debt Crises Ramon PACHECO PARDO India and East Asia: The Look East Policy G. V. C. NAIDU Brazil, East Asia, and the Shaping of World Politics Alexandre UEHARA & Guilherme CASARÕES Chinese Foreign Policy as a Rising Power to find its Rightful Place Suisheng ZHAO From Engagement to Contention: China in the Global Political Economy Sadık ÜNAY Making Sense of 1 March: A Proactive Strategy of Avoidance Hasan B. YALÇIN The Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan Triangle: The Unexpected Outcomes of the Zurich Protocols Zaur SHIRIYEV & Celia DAVIES Turkish-Armenian Normalisation and the Karabakh Conflict Cory WELT Book Reviews Spring 2013 Volume XVIII - Number 1 ISSN 1300-8641 PERCEPTIONS Editor in Chief Bülent Aras Deputy Editors Şaban Kardaş • Mesut Özcan • Murat Yeşiltaş Book Review Editor Şule Toktaş Managing Editor Engin Karaca International Advisory Board Nuri Yurdusev Middle East Technical University Fuat Keyman Sabancı University John Hobson University of Sheffield Talip Küçükcan Marmara University Ayşe Kadıoğlu Sabancı University Mustafa Kibaroğlu Okan University Burhanettin Duran Istanbul Şehir University Selçuk Çolakoğlu Yıldırım Beyazıt University Pınar Bilgin Bilkent University Oktay Tanrısever Middle East Technical University Tuncay Kardaş Sakarya University Şaban Kardaş TOBB-ETU Mesut Özcan Center for Strategic Research Homepage: http://www.sam.gov.tr The Center for Strategic Research (Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi- SAM) conducts research on Turkish foreign policy, regional studies and international relations, and makes scholarly and scientific assessments of relevant issues. It is a consultative body of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs providing strategic insights, independent data and analysis to decision makers in government. As a nonprofit organization, SAM is chartered by law and has been active since May 1995. SAM publishes Perceptions, an English language journal on foreign affairs. The content of the journal ranges from security and democracy to conflict resolutions, and international challenges and opportunities. Perceptions is a quarterly journal prepared by a large network of affiliated scholars. PERCEPTIONS is a peer-reviewed journal and is included in the following databases and indexes: CSA Index, Current Contents of Periodicals on the Middle East, EBSCO, Index Islamicus, International Political Science Abstracts (IPSA), Lancaster Index to Defense & International Security Literature, PAIS Index, Pro Quest, Turkish Academic Network and Information Center (TÜBİTAK - ULAKBIM). To subscribe, write to the Center for Strategic Research, Dr. Sadık Ahmet Caddesi No: 8, Balgat / 06100 Ankara - TURKEY Phone: (+90 312) 292 40 76 - 292 22 30 Fax: (+90 312) 253 42 03 e-mail: [email protected] Printed in Ankara by: AFŞAROĞLU MATBAASI ISSN 1300-8641 PERCEPTIONSJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Spring 2013 Volume XVIII Number 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Editorial Power Shifts in East Asia: Balance of Power vs. 3 Liberal Institutionalism Namrata GOSWAMI EU- East Asia Relations: Effects of the Global 33 Financial and Eurozone Debt Crises Ramon PACHECO PARDO India and East Asia: The Look East Policy 53 G. V. C. NAIDU Brazil, East Asia, and the Shaping of World Politics 75 Alexandre UEHARA & Guilherme CASARÕES Chinese Foreign Policy as a Rising Power to 101 find its Rightful Place Suisheng ZHAO From Engagement to Contention: 129 China in the Global Political Economy Sadık ÜNAY Making Sense of 1 March: 155 A Proactive Strategy of Avoidance Hasan B. YALÇIN The Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan Triangle: 185 The Unexpected Outcomes of the Zurich Protocols Zaur SHIRIYEV & Celia DAVIES Turkish-Armenian Normalisation and the 207 Karabakh Conflict Cory WELT Book Reviews 223 PERCEPTIONS - Spring 2013 Editorial This is Perceptions’ second volume in have evolved since the global financial and a special edition on Asia. The previous eurozone debt crises. The EU’s economic, issue examined East Asia’s dynamic political and security domination has regional affairs and international shifted with the turbulences witnessed relations. We have aimed to be as in the global financial system, leading inclusive as possible in terms of covering to a more balanced relationship between the various issues that pertain to Asia. the EU and East Asia. G.V.C. Naidu However, two volumes cannot be all discusses the “Look East Policy” put inclusive considering the number of into practice by India towards East Asia, international issues at stake in this region which has evolved into a comprehensive and the blossoming scholarship on these engagement underpinned by several matters. We hope that the special edition political institutional mechanisms, of Perceptions will contribute to current strong economic association through scholarship on Asian foreign policy issues a variety of agreements, and robust and will pave the way for further research defence links and security cooperation, in this critical area of study. This issue and then examines how it has resulted also has articles apart from the focus on in India becoming an important part of Asia. the evolving East Asian economic and security order. There are six articles on Asia in this second issue. Namrata Goswami touches Brazil has undergone major changes in upon the rise of China and its effects in the last two decades. Due to the new the region. Goswami analyses the power domestic context of democracy, free shifts in Asia through the prism of two markets, economic development, and major international relations theories, social inclusion, the country has begun realism and liberal institutionalism, to be perceived as an emerging power and concludes that China will prioritise and a regional leader. Alexandre Uehara cooperation over conflict as it is the least and Guilherme Casarões analyse Brazil’s costly option in terms of maintaining its relations with China, Japan, South current state of development. Ramon Korea and North Korea. As the political Pacheco Pardo scrutinises EU- East Asian dimension has come into prominence relations and looks at how these relations in trade and investment relations, 1 PERCEPTIONS, Spring 2013, Volume XVIII, Number 1, pp. 1-2. the authors maintain that stronger consequences of the instability that was ties between Brazil and East Asia will expected as an outcome of a US war in become paramount in shaping a new Iraq. Zaur Shiriyev and Celia Davies global order. Suisheng Zhao critically analyse the domestic and regional impact examines China’s rise as a great power of the Turkish-Armenian normalisation and seeks to answer the question of process from the Azerbaijani perspective, whether the Chinese leadership has with a focus on the changing dynamic renounced its low-profile diplomacy of Ankara-Baku relations in light of the by reorienting its foreign policy in outcome of the Zurich Protocols. Cory a more aggressive direction, and if Welt maintains that after Turkey and the country is ready to take a global Armenia signed the protocols on opening leadership role and assume international diplomatic relations and land borders, responsibility as a great power. Sadık the prospects for Turkish-Armenian Ünay discusses China’s re-engagement normalisation in the absence of progress with the global political economy and on the Karabakh conflict have been slim. its unprecedented ascendance as a major Welt proposes an unconditional opening economic powerhouse since the mid- of Turkish-Armenian diplomatic relations, followed by a retooling of the 1990s, events which have triggered Basic Principles, accepting a linkage a radical re-evaluation concerning between the border opening and the China’s importance for the future of the withdrawal of Armenian forces from world economy and global governance. territory outside Nagorno-Karabakh. Ünay argues that China’s current growth capacity is based on a deep Perceptions is the flagship publication of interdependence with Western interests the Center for Strategic Research (SAM). and multinational corporations. SAM will continue to publish special editions as well as issues of mixed articles In addition to the articles focusing on keeping its central focus on Turkish East Asia, this issue contains two articles foreign policy and international relations on Turkey’s relations with Armenia and in general. SAM also has Vision Papers one on Turkish foreign policy. Hasan B. and SAM Papers in the format of reports Yalçın evaluates Turkey’s rejection of the and policy papers. All publications are US’s demand to deploy American troops available on SAM’s website, sam.gov.tr. on its territory, also known as the “1 Stay tuned for more! March Motion”, and argues that Turkey had a proactive strategy of avoidance regarding the US’s demands mainly Bülent ARAS because of its concerns of the possible Editor-in-Chief 2 Power Shifts in East Asia: Balance of Power vs. Liberal Institutionalism Namrata GOSWAMI* Abstract With the rise of China, the East Asian will accommodate the rise of China. Thereby, regional order, so long dominated by the U.S. China would prioritize cooperation rather presence and by Japan, is undergoing major than conflict, as the least costly option in order power shifts. Increasingly, China is becoming to maintain its current state of development. In aggressive over its maritime territorial claims in conclusion, the author argues that there cannot the East
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