The Situation of Children and Young People at the Regional Level in

Prepared by Bulgaria Country Statistical Team Co-ordinator: Finka Denkova National Statistical Institute,

MONEE Country Analytical Report November 2004

The project to monitor the impact of economic and social change on children in Eastern and Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (MONEE) was initiated at the UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre in 1992. The project seeks to monitor, analyse and disseminate information on economic and social trends affecting children’s rights and wellbeing in countries in the region. A key feature of the Project is a network of correspondents in the 27 National Statistical Offices (NSOs). On an annual basis these correspondents complete an extensive data template which in turn is used for calculating indicators, supporting research of the project and, in due course, being made publicly available as the TransMonee database and in tables and graphs of the Innocenti Social Monitor.

For a number of years, each participating NSO prepared a Country Analytical Report based on extensive outline from UNICEF IRC on a different theme on the situation of children every year. These analytical reports have provided valuable input into the research at UNICEF IRC and, as significantly, have also served as important national documents on monitoring aspects of child wellbeing in the countries. Some of these Country Analytical Reports have been issued by the NSOs (in the national language) as part of their publication programme.

UNICEF IRC attaches great value to these national assessments of the situation of children and is committed to promote the efforts, including through translating the reports into English (where the submitted report has been in Russian) and offering its website to make them accessible to a wider research audience. The Country Analytical Reports are owned and authored by the National Statistical Offices and are not the intellectual property of UNICEF (see below).

The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policies or view of UNICEF. The text has not been edited for official publication standards and UNICEF accepts no responsibility for errors. The designations in this publication do not imply an opinion on legal status of any country or territory, or of its authorities, or the delimitation of frontiers.

2 Child Well-being in the regions of Bulgaria (Report based on statistical data)

During the past decade Bulgaria has undergone a profound socioeconomic transformation. Aiming to carry out the transition from central planning to a market economy, and ensure macro-economic stability, the state had to remove its excessive control that could hinder the spontaneous performance of markets. After the years of economic crisis, since 1998 Bulgaria started to feel the results of the decisive steps taken by state authorities to stabilize the economy and speed up structural reform. The stabilization and normalization of economic conditions switched the efforts’ focus to the new dimensions of social development emphasizing employment, educational, and well- being aspects. But the opportunities for improving quality of population life are mainly determined by the existing economic potential. So, improving the quality of population life is a result of continuous growth, macro-economic stabilization and efficient distribution. At the same time the opportunities for improving population’s economic and social status are being searched in the frame of limited financial resources, under the conditions of hard budget constraints (the currency board introduced in 1997 restricts the government’s ability to borrow from the Central Bank). Under these conditions the policies should encourage growth based mainly on encouragement the opportunities for private business development and self-employment, which are expected to create new job places and higher income and to provide the necessary preconditions for social investment; establishing frameworks to protect consumers and taking care of the more vulnerable population groups (women, children, individuals etc.), which condition had deteriorated as a result of the transformation process. Trying to analyse of how Bulgaria’s social and economic problems during the transition period have impacted the different dimensions of child and family well-being, this report puts the spotlight on a number of issues, such as: demographic, transition problems in the fields of education and health, income levels, unemployment, basic economic data etc. During the last decade the National Statistical Institute continues its tradition to collect information about the basic features of the country’s demographic, social and economic development and to analyse the tendencies of development in the context of transition process. A lot of socio-economic differences arise when the states are surveyed on national level. If surveyed on regional level these differences go deeper. Regional policy is an important tool for achieving sustainable and balanced regional development in the EU, as well as in Bulgaria. Special funds are created to support successful regional policy. Their usage is regulated thanks to legal base with clear criteria. The development of the National Economic Development Plan (NEDP) to 2006 is un importrant step towards harmonization of the governance with the EU. An important part of the NEDP defines the guidelines for development of the 6 planning regions and the 28 districts. What is important is not the existence of a plan, but the knowledge that the Bulgarian administration gains in the process of its preparation. In the process of preparation participants will gain experience in creating and using a tool, which will be fundamental after Bulgaria’s accession in the EU. Some of the most important requirements towards this tool are: • It should be realistic – the assumptions contained in it must be based on objective analysis and trustful statistical information; • The purposes contained in it must be measurable; Both requirements directly formulate the need of reliable statistical information.

3 The possibilities for analyzing the regional development are limited by lot of reasons: Objective problems 1 1. Unsatisfactory precision of the indicators, estimated through sample surveys The reason is that these samples are designed to be representative on national level only. Good indicators on regional level (acceptable stochastical errors) require increase of the size of the samples, and from there the financing, which is now beyond the strength of the Bulgarian statistical institute, as well as for the wealthy European statistical offices. One of the powerful means for solving this problem is the wider usage of administrative data sources. 2. Confidentiality of data on the lower regional levels. This is true, mostly, for data about economic entities. In many cases this leads to refuse to supply data, without which it is impossible for decisions to be made. At the same time, however, the vague definition of confidentiality creates preconditions for its subjective interpretation. This leads to problems with receiving and disseminating data. Here, again, except for clarification of the definition of confidentiality, a solution is the wider usage of administrative sources for collecting information. The fact that the restriction for disseminating confidential data is true for users outside the national statistical system only, has to be taken into consideration. When supplying data to NSI departments or to other statistical bodies, they could be confidential. The unit that receives the data is responsible for keeping confidentiality inside the national statistical system. The latest changes in the Law on statistics solved this problem, at least according to dissemination of information for governmental decision making purposes. Art 26(2) of the law says: “Statistical information on economic condition or environment condition, collected by economic and other subjects may be submitted under para.1, p. 2 and 3, in the cases when this is necessary for providing basic information of established public significance and when it is foreseen in the National Programme for Statistical Surveys.” The law defines “Basic information of established public significance”: ”Basic information of established public significance” is the information received from constant statistical surveys, included in the National Programme for Statistical Surveys and needed for the elaboration and reporting of the National Plan for Economic Development and the National Plan for Regional Development of the country.” 3. There is no information on regional level for some indicators, traditional for the EU – information is either no produced at all, or not available on regional level. It would be acceptable if this is based on methodological or other objective reason. 4. There is strong correlation on regional level – the lower the level, the fewer information about it is. This is true especially for economic data. Significant efforts are needed, so that this correlation is weakened. 5. Another significant problem concerns data storage and archiving. In most of the cases information for old periods/moments is stored on paper. This requires its reentry, but this is not the essence of the problem. The more complex problem is that usually archives are located far from those who work with the data (ex. the archive of NSI is placed in the village

1 Regional statistical development in Bulgaria, Sergei Tzevetarski, Head of Regional Statistics Division, NSI,Bulgaria

4 Slivek, district). This makes difficult and, even impossible, the formation of longer time series – obligatory precondition for data analysis. 6. There is no metadata available for a large part of the indicators. The methodology of data collection and calculating for a huge part of the indicators was changed (several times for some indicators). The administrative breakdown has also changed (in 1999). If such information is not supported, even if data are disseminated they would be useless. Easier problems (theoretically) have purely subjective nature . They concern relations between participants in the process of collecting and aggregating regional information, at NSI, the territorial bureaus and other statistical bodies. Several important aspects, related to the dissemination process exist. It seems that, so far, sufficient attention is not paid to the different types of information flows. We have to consider that there are two types of users - end ones, i.e. outside NSI and interim, i.e. supporting and transforming the information. The complete solution of these types of problems is the development of a statistical information system with all means available to the statistics. Such system would be able to generate random tables, depending on the purposes. The realization of this solution is now absolutely achievable, without a lot of additional effort. Young specialists, with higher education in statistics, started working in NSI during the past years. They have studied special courses on database development and standard statistical software products (SPSS, STATISTICA, STRATIGRAPHICS, etc.), which gives them a solid base for working with information. Background in Geography and GIS is also e good precondition for implementation of GIS in the regional analysis. The optimal combination of these specialists knowledge with the long-time experience of other NSI personnel, familiar with the specifications of data, guarantees the overcome of obstacles like this. The NSI publication “Regions and districts in the Republic of Bulgaria 1997-2001” contains data about the demographic, social, economic and environmental state of the Bulgarian districts and planning regions for the period 1997 - 2001. Regarding the districts (to a certain extent comparable with the former districts - okrazi) the publication is continuation of NSI’s publications for previous years, while appropriate data about planning regions are published here for the first time. Bulgaria’s planning regions were created in 2000. According to the agreements with Eurostat they are considered comparable to level 2 units of the European nomenclature of territorial units for statistics (NUTS). The most important indicators have been chosen in order to reveal the specifics of the different territorial units. Parts of the data have already appeared in some other thematic NSI’s publications, but here they are, for the first time, systematized in territorial aspect. The information given is too diverse and considering the publication’s limited volume covers the diversity of the social and economic development of the country to an optimal extent. In order to interpret the indicators and data correctly users are advised to take into consideration the notes and links to other publications stated in the methodological notes. Taking into account the increasing demand for analyses of the regional disparities and in order to develop a consistent regional policy according to the European requirements, NSI aims to regularly supply all the interested institutions with regional information. For the years between five-year publications like this, users can utilize relevant NSI’s electronic publications. If data on a lower territorial level (municipalities) are needed, publications of the 28 regional statistical offices can be used.

5 By now NSI develops regional statistics based on the administrative breakdown of the country (i.e. we work with normative regions). Certainly, it is now possible to produce statistical data for functional regions, but they are limited by the requirement that they have to be formed as aggregation from the normative units on the lower level. If formed otherwise, supply of information for them will require additional efforts and resources. In addition, the lower the level in the administrative breakdown of the country, the fewer data available is. That is why, considering these limitations, practical possibilities for statistical survey of the different functional units are scarce. In the EU and OECD countries there has, for a long time, been a practice for developing analyses, based on functional regions, and that is one of the directions that NSI will have to develop in the future. Different tools are used for classification of the territorial units. For national purposes Bulgaria uses National Classification of the Administrative and Territorial Units. This classification covers settlements, kmetstva (mayoralties), municipalities, districts and planning regions. Attention has to be paid on the fact that units on the separate levels are different. For instance, municipalities are self-governed (mayors are elected), while districts are under the central government (district governors are nominated by the Council of ministers). There are no bodies with administrative functions in the six planning regions, based on the Decree of the Council of ministers 145/2000. As part of the policy towards integration with the EU statistical system and for achieving comparability of data, NSI has also accepted the NUTS (Nomenclature des units territoriale et statistique) classification. Bulgarian part of this nomenclature follows hierarchical structure of five levels. Each upper level consists of aggregation of whole units on the lower level. Defined like this, the NUTS levels are compatible with the National Classification of the Administrative-Territorial and Territorial Units (NCATTU). This eases the collection and processing of regional statistical data. The acceptance of these units and their approbation by the EU (EUROSTAT) is also a matter of discussion. Eurostat has now accepted the regions, defined on level 2 with the stipulation, that by the acceptance of Bulgaria in the EU they will be additionally discussed. Changes in the NUTS levels will most probably occur. The new EC regulation (1059/2003) defines strict rules for setting up NUTS levels. The following table shows the parameters for the fist three NUTS levels:

Criteria for forming regions based on the population number

Level Lower limit Upper limit

NUTS 1 3 million 7 million

NUTS 2 800 000 3 million

NUTS 3 150 000 800 000

Since the population of Bulgaria still counts a little more than 7 millions NSI has been asked to propose formation of 2 statistical units at level 1. At present, some of the planning regions (NUTS 2) do not meet criteria. The North- West planning region, for instance, has a population of approximately 500 000.

6

The map shows the current territorial units at NUTS3 and NUTS2 and their location at the country territory. When defining the region borders other factors must be considered too. The major requirement is internal homogeneity. For example, some of the present planning regions are heterogeneous. The example for that is the South-West region. Sofia (capital) city being included in it, distorts the picture of the socio-economic state of the region. The influence of the economic potential, geographic location, transport interrelations, historic and cultural heritage etc., should also be taken into consideration.

The Decree of the President of the Republic of Bulgaria ( № 1 of 05.01.1999) stated the borders and administrative centers of 28 districts in the country in accordance with the Law for administrative and territorial constitution. These districts are adequate to the NUTS 3 level of Eurostat Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics and to a certain extend comparable with the former districts – okrazi. With Ordinance of the Council of Ministries № 145 (27.07.2000) for implementation of strategies and programmes, co-financed from EU Programmes 6 planning regions are defined. According to the agreements with Eurostat they are considered comparable to level NUTS2. Prior to 1999 the administrative constitution included 9 regions, that are not comparable with the current administrative constitution. The South Central Planning Region has the bigest territory (24.6%) and includes the , Pazardzik, , Smolian, and districts. Administratively it is composed of the largest number of municipalities (67 of 263 as of 31.12. 2001), population settlements and cities. The only 2 nd place it occupies is for the indicator of population density, while 1 st first place is taken by the South-West Planning Region. The bigger population density in the South Central Planning Region is due to the

7 District of Sofia-capital. The District of Sofia-capital has the smallest territory (1.2%) and the population density of 873.3 persons. The smallest among other planning regions is the North-West Region, consisting of the districts , and Montana. That Region is the smallest both in territory, population and number of population settlements and cities. Population and demographic trends

Changes in the number of the population and the population structure in Bulgaria are determined by the natural demographic development and migration processes. A long-term tendency towards a decline in the number of the population has set in since the late 1980s. The significant changes in the demographic behaviour of the population have resulted in a rapid drop of its natural increase. The deepening demographic crisis has been also been directly and indirectly influenced by emigration processes since 1989. At the end of 2003 the country’s population was 7 801.3 thousand. Compared to 2002 its number has declined by 44.6 thousand persons or 0.6%. The decline is entirely due to the negative natural increase of the population, i.e. the significantly greater number of deaths compared to that of live births. The decline is higher among males than females. In comparison with 2002 the number of males has dropped by 25 thousand persons or 0.7%, while that of females has declined by 19 thousand, or 0.5%. The number of females in the total population is higher by 219.6 thousand, with a relative share of 51.4 %. In 2003 there were 1 000 males to 1 058 females. Females predominate in older age groups, while the number of males is higher in younger age groups – i.e. under 40 years of age. The breakdown of the population by sex and place of residence is more or less even. 69.3 % of the total male population live in cities, the percentage for females being 70.2%. Over the 1990 - 2003 period significant changes can be observed in the age structure of the population. The process of ageing of the population continues. The number and relative share of the population under 15 years of age has been constantly decreasing, with the share of the population over 65 being on the increase. While in 1990 the relative share of young people under 15 years of age was 20.1%, and that of persons over 65 – 13.4% of the total population, in 1995 these relative shares were 17.7% and 15.2% respectively. At the end of 2003 the relative share of young people is 14.2%, while that of the older population already represents 17.1 of the total population. The ageing of the population naturally leads to higher values of the average age indicator. The average age of the population in Bulgaria in 1990 stood at 37.5 years. Over the following years this indicator rose to 38.9 in 1995 and 40.6 in 2002. The average age of the population in 2003 was almost at the same level – 40.8 years. The process of ageing of the population takes place in both villages and cities. The average age in villages is higher than that in cities – 44.9 years in villages and 39.1 in cities. The tendency towards ageing of the population also results in changes in its age structure, namely the breakdown of the population by categories under, at and over working age. The breakdown of the population at working age and over working age is influenced by both ageing and the changes in legislation fixing the age-limit for the population in working age. The age limit for 2003 was as follows: from 16 years of age until the completion of 57 years of age for females and 62 years for males. The population at working age in 2003 was 4 746.5 thousand, or 60.8% of the total population. As a result of changes in legislation this category of the population has increased by almost 35 thousand persons or 0.7%. Regardless of this fact, however problems in the

8 reproduction of the population at working age are likely to persist because of the decreasing number of the population under working age. A long-term tendency towards a decline has emerged among the population under working age. In comparison with 2002 this category of the population has decreased by 37 thousand, and by the end of 2003 it numbered 1 210 thousand, or 15.5% of the population of the country. A comparison shows that in 1990 this share was 21.6%, in 1995 – 19.1% and in 2002 – 15.9%. The population over working age in 2003 was approximately 1 845 thousand. Over a period of year it has decreased by 42 thousand persons. A similar fall (by 43 thousand) was observed during the preceding year. The decrease of this category in terms of number and relative share is due not only to the natural movement of the population (mortality), but also to the exclusion from it of part of the population due to changes in the pension age limit. NATURAL MOVEMENT OF THE POPULATION

During 2003 67 908 children were born in Bulgaria, of which 67 359 (99.2%) were live-born . Compared to the preceding year the number of live-born children has increased by 860. A comparison with 1990, however when 105 180 children were born is indicative for the decline in the number of births. Using this base year for comparison, the number of live-born children has decreased by 36%, and compared to 1995 by 6.4%. The crude birth rate (the number of live-born children per 1000 persons of the average annual population) which has been decreasing over the last few decades reached its minimal value of 7.7%o in 1997. During the last three years the crude birth rate has stabilized on a level of 8.5 %o , reaching 8.6%o in 2003. The younger age structure of the population in cities and the relatively large number of fertility contingents determine a higher birth rate of the urban population. The birth rate in cities is 8.9 %o, and that in villages - 7.9 %o. The tendency towards a decline in birth rates is mainly due to the constant decrease of the number of fertility contingents in Bulgaria and the reduced fertility of women in fertility age. In 1990 the number of women in fertility age (15 - 49 years) was 2 068 thousand, and in 1995 2 054 thousand. In 2003 their number was 1 890 thousand. When reviewing data on fertility contingents one should keep in mind that 94% of births come from women between 15 to 34 years of age, who numbered 1 086 thousand in 2003. The total fertility rate showing the average number of children whom a mother would give birth to during her entire fertile period is indicative of birth rates tendencies. In 1990 the total fertility rate was 1.81 children, reaching an absolute low of 1.09 in 1997 and ranging between 1.21 and 1.24 over the last few years, with a value of 1.23 live-born children in 2003. In other words, birth rates in Bulgaria are far from the theoretical minimum needed for the simple population reproduction - 2.1 live-born children per woman. Along with decreasing birth rates, the tendency towards an increase of the mean age of the mother at first birth is also gaining ground. In 2003 the mean age of the mother at birth was 25.6 years, and the age at first birth – 24.3 years. Compared to 1990, these indicators are 23.9 years and 22.0 years respectively, the same mean age being also registered in 1995. In villages women give birth to their first child at a younger age – an average of 22.2 years, while in cities the mean age is 25.0 years. The crude birth rate in Bulgaria continues to be lower in comparison with that in European countries 2. Over the last decades a tendency towards decreasing birth rates can also be observed in European countries, however in most EU member countries the crude birth rate has stabilized on a level of 10-12 %o. Birth rates range in these limits in countries such as Belgium, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Luxembourg, Portugal, Finland and Sweden. The

2 International data comparisons refer to European countries in 2002. Source: Recent Demographic Developments in Europe.

9 country with the highest birth rate in the EU is Ireland – 15.4%o. Birth rates are lower in Austria – 9.7 %o, Italy – 9.4 %o, – 9.3 %o and Germany – 8.8 %o. In the EU candidate countries of Latvia, Lithuania and Slovenia the crude birth rate is approximately 8.7 %o. In Poland and the Czech Republic this rate is slightly higher than the one in Bulgaria, and is 9.3 %o and 9.1 %o respectively. Romania, Estonia, Slovakia and Hungary have higher birth rates than Bulgaria, though even there the crude birth rate is not very high – 9.5 %o. After 1990 a tendency has emerged towards an increase of the relative share of illegitimate births in Bulgaria. Their relative share has increased from 12.4 % in 1990 to 25.8% in 1995, reaching 46.2% in 2003. Their number is 31 397, of which 325 were still births. Out of all illegitimate children 86% were born to mothers under the age of 29. Illegitimate births are mainly the result of a new family model appearing outside legal marriage, namely the so-called “consensus” or “de facto” marriage. Out of all registered illegitimate birth, it was only in 13 311 cases (42.2%) that the name of the father was listed as unknown. Their relative share compared to that of all births is 19.6%. We can thus assume that not all illegitimate live-born children live outside a family environment. In Bulgaria in 2003 there were 111 927 deaths, or 14.3 per 1000 persons of the population . Compared to the preceding year the number of deaths has declined by only 690 persons, while the crude death rate has remained the same. During the 1990s the crude death rate was highest in 1997, namely 14.7 %o. Mortality remains higher among males (15.8 %o) than females (12.9 %o), and higher in villages (20.1 %o) than in cities (11.8 %o). The different death rate levels among these population categories also determine the difference in average life expectancy at birth by sex and among the urban and rural population. The average life expectancy at birth has increased from 70.91 years for the 1992 - 1994 period to 71.70 years for the 1998 - 2000 period. Over the 2001 – 2003 period it was 72.07 years. Life expectancy at birth for the last period is approximately 7 years longer among females (75.59 years) than that among males (68.68 years). Among the urban population life expectancy at birth is 72.47 years, and among the rural population 70.96 years. Mortality in Bulgaria is considerably higher than that in other European countries. In EU member countries the crude death rate ranges between 7.5%o in Ireland, 8.9%o in the Netherlands and 9.9 %o in Austria, Finland and Italy. The mortality rate is slightly higher in Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Portugal and Sweden – ranging from 10.2 to 10.6 %o. Denmark has a higher mortality rate – 10.9 %o. In Switzerland and Norway, which are not EU members this indicator has values of 8.5 and 9.9 %o respectively. Among EU candidate countries Bulgaria has the highest mortality rate, followed by Latvia with 13.9 %o. In Hungary and Estonia this indicator is slightly above 13 %o. The mortality rate in Slovenia, Poland and Slovakia ranges between 9.3 and 9.6 %o. One should keep in mind that this indicator is strongly influenced by the age structure of the population, yet regardless of this fact mortality is much higher in Bulgaria. Another general measure of mortality is the premature mortality indicator, namely the relative share of deaths of persons under the age of 65 compared with the total number of deaths. Since 1990 (29.7%) it has been on the decline with a value of 26.4 % in 1998, reaching its lowest value in 2003 – 24.3% and decreasing by 0.2 percentage points in comparison with the preceding year. Therefore the stable high death rate is mainly due to deaths in the older age group, though the decrease in the population in the younger age group must also be taken into account. Infant mortality continues to be characterized by its considerable inherent fluctuations. The infant mortality rate is an indicator influenced by various factors and susceptible to change in time and the relatively minor numbers from which it is derived. After reaching the high level of 16.9%o in 1991, the infant mortality rate fell to 14.8%o in 1995, and in 1997

10 reached its highest value for the last 15 years – 17.5 %o. Over the next years it decreased again, reaching 14,4 %o in 2001, and 13.3 %o in 2002. In 2003, 831 children up to the age of 1 year died in Bulgaria, with the infant mortality rate decreasing to 12.3 %o. The infant mortality level in EU countries is 2-3 times lower than in Bulgaria. The lowest infant mortality rate is registered in Sweden and Finland – 2.8 and 3.00 %o respectively. In other countries this rate is between 3.4 %o in Spain and 5.9 %o in Greece. The lowest infant mortality level registered in Europe is that in Iceland – 2.2. %o. Among EU candidate countries, only Romania has a higher infant mortality rate – 17.3 %o. In Poland and Hungary this rate is below 8.00 %o. Out of these countries, the lowest infant mortality rate is that in the Czech Republic – 4.1 %o. In 2003 there were no significant changes in the mortality structure by cause of death. The main cause of deaths were diseases of blood and blood-forming organs, followed by neoplasms, symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions, accidents and poisonings, diseases of the respiratory system and diseases of the digestive system. The difference between births and deaths represents the natural increase of the population . Since 1990 the number of deaths exceeds that of births. Hence this difference is negative. As a result, since the beginning of the 1990s the population of Bulgaria has been decreasing. The natural increase rate increased from -0.4 %o in 1990 to -2.9 %o in 1993 and - 5.00 %o in 1995, reaching its highest value in 1997 (-7.0 %o). As a result of an increase in the number of birth and a fall in the number of deaths over the next two years the natural increase rate decreased in absolute terms reaching –4.8%o in 1999. Over the next years this rate increased again and in 2003 its value was – 5.7 %o. The difference between the natural increase rate values in cities and villages is considerable. In villages it is –12.2 %o, while in cities it was –2.9 %o. In spite of the existing tendency towards a decrease of the natural increase rate in European countries, the figures for Bulgaria continue to be negative. Among EU member countries only Greece, Italy and Germany have a negative natural increase rate - -0.2 %o, -0.5 %o and -1.4 %o respectively. In other EU countries the natural increase rate is positive and ranging from 0.2 %o in Austria, and 1.0 %o in Belgium, The United Kingdom and Denmark to 3.7 %o in the Netherlands and Luxembourg. Indicator values in Ireland are particularly outstanding (7.9 %o). Among EU candidate countries Latvia is the country with a pattern of natural movement of the population closest to that in Bulgaria (-5.3 %o). Estonia and Hungary have a lower negative natural increase rate - -3.9 %o and -3.6 %o respectively. The negative natural increase rate is much lower in Poland and Slovakia (-0.1 %o) and Slovenia (-0.5 %o). An analysis of the data on the natural movement of the population and a comparison with the respective data in European countries leads to a conclusion that in the present demographic situation in Bulgaria, it is not only low births rates that present a problem, but also the high mortality level among the population. MARRIAGE AND DIVORCE Over the last few years the number of marriages has fallen. While in 1993 the total registered number of marriages was 40 022, or 4.7 per 1 000 persons of the population, in 2002 the number of marriages reached its lowest level (29 218), and the marriage rate 3.7 %o. In 2003, in comparison with the preceding year, an increase of the number of marriages by 1 427 can be observed, the total number being 30 645 or 3.9 per 1 000. In spite of the registered increase, the number of legitimate marriages in 2003 was the lowest one, compared to the number registered in 2002. The comparison of the average age of marriage among women (25.2 years) with that of the mother at first birth (24.3 years) reveals a tendency for the birth of the first child to be preceded by marriage. A tendency towards an increase of the average age at first marriage can be observed. Among men in 1998 it was 26.6 years, and in 2003 it reached 28.4 years. The indicator for

11 females is 23.5 and 25.2 years respectively. The age at first marriage in cities for both men and women is higher than that in villages. This difference in age among men is more than one year – 28.7 years in cities and 27.3 years in villages. The average age of women at marriage in villages is 23.9 years, and a year and a half higher in cities – 25.5 years. The number of terminated marriages in 2003 is 12 003, or almost 2 thousand more than in 2002. The average duration of marriage is 13.2 years and compared to previous periods shows a tendency towards an increase. In 1993 the average duration of the marriage was 9.6 years, and in 1998 11.1 years. There are no significant changes in divorces by reasons. Out of all terminated marriages in 45% the reason for divorce was given as mutual agreement, in 29% the reason was incompatibility of temperament, in 11% of cases – virtual parting, and in 5% - infidelity. Other reasons represented a considerably smaller relative share of the total.

INTERNAL MIGRATION OF THE POPULATION In 2003 152 thousand persons took part in migration and changed their place of residence within Bulgaria. Out of all migrants 47% were male (71 321 persons) and the remaining 53% were female (80 948 persons). In comparison with preceding years a specific stabilization of the population by place of residence has set in, i.e. a reduction of its territorial mobility. The intensity of internal migration (the ratio between the total number of migrations and the number of the population) was 2.1 % in 2003, compared to 2.3% in 1998 and 2.7% in 2001. Over the 1998 - 2003 period a cyclical development of migration flows between cities and villages can be observed. As a result of the relation of these two main flows by place of residence, the migration balance in 1998 reached 3 278 persons in favour of cities. At the end of 1999 the migration increase in the country changed its direction and was already in favour of villages by 8 847, and in the following year the migration balance changed direction again with an increase of 11 558 in favour of cities. In 2001 and 2002 the increase of the urban population continued on the basis of migration increase, however its number gradually fell and in 2002 declined to its 1998 level. The biggest migration increase in territorial aspect in 2003 occurred in between cities and other cities. Approximately 41 % of all migrants changed their place of residence from one town to another. Migration flows from villages to cities (18%) and from village to village (10%) were much smaller in number and relative share. The number of emigrants from cities to villages (31%) was greater than that in the opposite direction, thus contributing to a migration balance in favour of villages. As a result of the migration of the population in 2003, the population of villages increased by 19 thousand at the expense of cities.

The general analysis of the results of the development of the population and of demographic processes shows that Bulgaria is in a difficult demographic transition characterized by relatively low birth rates and a continuing high level of general and infant mortality. The hardships of the economic transition also contributed to increasingly negative tendencies of demographic development and the formation of a new kind of demographic behaviour of the population – a decrease in fertility and emigration from Bulgaria of significant contingents of the younger generation. Regardless of the fact that during the 1999 - 2003 period the tendency towards worsening of the natural movement of the population was stopped and emigration flows out of the country decreased, one should bear in mind that a highly unfavourable situation has developed in terms of the future reproduction of the population and its demographic structure.

12 TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION

In 2003 there were 5 333 settlements in Bulgaria, of which 246 are cities. No population was present in 141 settlements. The territorial distribution of the population (by administrative-territorial units) is influenced by the natural and internal migration increase. Changes in the territorial distribution of the population can also occur as a result of administrative changes. Thus in 2003 four villages were given the status of cities (Sarnitsa, , and Vetren in district and in Ruse district), a fact which has an impact on the population structure by place of residence. As a result of these administrative changes the population of cities has increased by 16 thousand. However, as a result of the natural and migration increase the population of cities has fallen by 35 thousand, and thus the decrease in comparison to 2002 amounts to a total of 20 thousand. The present population of cities is 5 442 thousand, or 69.8% of the population of Bulgaria, and that of villages 2 359 thousand, or 30.2%. In comparison with 2002 the population in villages has decreased by a total of 25 thousand. This decrease is mostly due to the low natural increase. Following the administrative territorial division and the formation of regions 6 planning regions, 28 districts and 264 municipalities have been established. There are significant differences between them in terms of population numbers. Over 50% of the country’s population live in the South Central Region (1 944 thousand) and in the South-West Region (2 110 thousand). They are followed in terms of population number by the North-Central and North-East Regions with a population of 1 166 thousand and 1 286 thousand respectively or a total of 31% of the population of Bulgaria. The South-East Region has a population of 783 thousand, and a relative share of 10%. The North- West Region has the lowest population numbers – 513 thousand or 7% of the population. The population decrease is a tendency for all planning regions for the period 1992- 2003. The population decreases with 18.7% in North West region, with 10.7% in North Central Region, with 8.6% in South Central Region. In the South West region the decrease is 3%. While comparing districts the differentiation is more significant. The district of Kardzhali has population decrease of 24.7%, Vratsa – 20.1%, Vidin – 19.1%, – 15.5%, – 15.3% Only the Sofia-Capital district has a 1.6% increase of the population. The lasting negative tendencies in the demographic processes lead to big changes in the age structure of the population. The processes of aging go deeper. The increasing number of elderly influenced the age dependency ratio – i.e. the share of population of 65 and more years. The age dependency indicator has the highest value for North West region – 57.4% (2001) where the districts of Vidin and Montana have a leading role for the country with 59.9% and 59.2%. The South West region has the lowest value of age dependency ratio – 43.6% for the region and 40.1% for the district of Sofia capital. The share of child population in 1992 was 23.6% and decreased with 5.4 percentage points in 2003. The territorial distribution of population at ages 0-17 is in equable. The child population represents 18.2% of the whole population in 2003. More than 50% of the youngest population lives in two planning regions - South Central (25.6) and South West (25.2%) planning regions. More than 13% of youth live in the district of Sofia Capital. North East (17.5%), North Central (14.1%), South East (11.1%) and North West (6.5%) planning regions followed the South Central and South West regions. Big differences exist in the share of child population among districts.

13

Share of child population by districts (% of total population at 0-17) as of 31.12. 2003

16.0 Vidin

14.0 Smolyan 12.0 Yambol Lovech 10.0 Montana Kardzhali 8.0 Vratsa Ruse 6.0 Sofia Haskovo 4.0 Pazardzhik Stara Zagora 2.0 Varna Plovdiv 0.0 Sofia cap. 1

The district of Vidin (1.4%) is on the left on the figure with the lowest share of child population. The crude birth rate for 2003 is 8.6 per 1000. If we examine the period 1990-2003 the birth rate systematically decreases starting from 12.1 in 1990. By 1997 the birth rate had dropped to 7.7 and since that year the increase was observed till 2000 (9.0). In 2003 14 districts have a birth rate lower than the value for the country, in one district the birth rate is the same as for the country, and in 13 districts the birth rate is higher. The district of Sliven is with the highest birth rate for 2003 – 11.9 per 1000.

14 Main demographic indicators for 2003 by regions of planning and districts

Crude birth rate Crude death rate Rate of natural increase Total 8.6 14.3 -5.7 North-West 7.6 19.4 -11.8 Vidin 6.8 20.5 -13.7 Vratsa 8.1 18.3 -10.2 Montana 7.7 19.8 -12.1 North Central 7.7 16.3 -8.6 Veliko Tarnovo 7.8 15.8 -8,0 Gabrovo 6.9 17.3 -10.4 Lovech 8.5 17.8 -9.3 Pleven 8 16.6 -8.6 Ruse 7.4 14.9 -7.5 North-East 9.4 13.9 -4.5 Varna 9.9 12.2 -2.3 Dobrich 8.8 14.2 -5.4 Razgrad 9.1 14.8 -5.7 Silistra 8.7 15.3 -6.6 Targovishte 9.4 15.7 -6.3 Shumen 9.5 14.6 -5.1 South-East 10.0 13.6 -3.6 Burgas 9.6 12.6 -3,0 Sliven 11.9 14,0 -2.1 Yambol 8.2 16,0 -7.8 South Central 8.5 13.4 -4.9 Kardzhali 9.6 10.9 -1.3 Pazardzhik 8.8 13.2 -4.4 Plovdiv 8.8 13.4 -4.6 Smolyan 6.9 11.2 -4.3 Stara Zagora 8.6 14.9 -6.3 Haskovo 7.8 14.4 -6.6 South-West 8.4 13.3 -4.9 Blagoevgrad 8.9 10.8 -1.9 Kyustendil 7.2 16.9 -9.7 Pernik 6.2 16.3 -10.1 Sofia cap. 8.9 12.5 -3.6 Sofia 7.5 16.1 -8.6

The natural increase for the whole period 1990-2003 is negative. The lowest value - 11.8 of the natural increase is in the North West region. In 2003 all districts had negative natural increase. The districts of Vidin (-13.7) and Montana (-12.1) are with lowest natural increase compared to other districts. The district of

15 Kardzhali has the highest natural increase minus 1.3, followed by Blagoevgrad –1.9, Sliven –2.1. The distribution of the population by districts is also uneven, however a number of groups can be identified. The largest group is formed by 12 districts with a population of up to 200 thousand, or 22.6% of the country’s population. The smallest district in terms of population is Vidin district – 123 thousand (1.6%) and the biggest one is Sofia (Capital) – 1 209 thousand (15.5%). The relative share of Plovdiv district’s population in the total population of the country is 9.1%. Thus a quarter of the country’s population live in Sofia (Capital) and Plovdiv district, i.e. a number equal to the 8 districts with a population between 200 thousand and 300 thousand. The third biggest district after Plovdiv is Varna district with a population of 459 thousand, followed closely by Burgas district with 420 thousand. The districts of Stara Zagora, Blagoevgrad, Pleven and Pazardzhik rank next with population numbers ranging from 303 thousand in Pazadrzhik to 364 thousand in Stara Zagora. There are also major differences in the number of the population by municipalities. The decrease of the population has affected some of them particularly hard. Thus in municipalities such as Treklyano, Kovachevtsi, Chipsrovtsi, Boynitsa, Makresh and others the relative share of the older population is very high and the number of deaths is 10 times higher than that of births. In four municipalities (Treklyano, Chavdar, Chelopech and Anton) the population is under 2 thousand, representing less than 1% of the Bulgarian population, while 26.6% of the population live in the four biggest municipalities – Sofia (capital) (1 209 thousand), Plovdiv (340 thousand), Varna (320 thousand) and Burgas (207 thousand). The size of these municipalities is determined above all by the number of the population in the cities serving as their administrative centres. There are 173 municipalities with a population between 2 to 20 thousand, which account for 22% of the population of Bulgaria. Almost 20% of the total population live on the territory of 54 municipalities with a population between 20 and 50 thousand, a figure approximately equal to population numbers in municipalities with a population of 50 -100 thousand, of which however are only 22 in Bulgaria. Only 7 municipalities have a population between 100 and 200 thousand inhabitants, and they represent 12% of the total population of the country. The South West planning region has the biggest population size – 27.5% of the whole population in 2003. The region has the biggest population share which increased during the period 1992-2003. The Sofia-capital district with population of 15.5% from the total population in 2003 is situated within the South West region. The Sofia –capital district is followed by districts of Plovdiv (9%), Varna (5.9%), Burgas-(5.4%). The North West planning region has the smallest number of population – 6.6% in 2003 and it’s population decreased for the period 1992-2003. Within the North West planning region is situated the district of Vidin - the smallest district in the country with 1.6% of the population. Compared to 1992 the population of Bulgaria has decreased with 683 590 persons or 8%. The significant difference is mainly due to the external migration, reported from March 2001 Population Census. The ethic structure of the population is surveyed during the Population Census on the base of self-determination of the respondents. According to the March 2001 Population Census the Bulgarian ethic group is prevailing over other groups and represents 83.9% of population. Turkish ethic group has 9.4% and Roma ethic group represents 4.7% of population.

16 The territorial concentration by ethic groups vigorously varies between districts and planning regions. The Turkish ethnic group is the most numerous in the district of Kardzhali (61.6% of the population). In Razgrad it is about half of the population – 47.2%. The North East planning region with districts of Silistra, Tagovishe and Razgrad has the biggest share of Turkish ethic group population – 22.5%. Population from the Turkish ethic group has the smallest share in the North West planning region (0.4%) and in districts of Pernik, Kyustendil, Vidin and Montana. The share of Roma ethic group for the country is 4.7%. 14 districts have a smaller share and respectively other 14 districts have a bigger share. The district of Montana has the biggest share of Roma population – 12.8%, followed by Sliven – 12.3%, Dobrich- 8.7% etc. In Smolyan Roma ethic group has only 0.5%, Kardzhali – 0.8%, Gabrovo- 1.1%, Sofia- capital – 1.5%.

SOCIAL CHARACTERISTICS AND LIFE CONDITIONS

There is a tendency of decrease of the labour force (economically active population) during the period 1998 – 2003, which is more highly expressed at the beginning of the period – until the end of 2000. In 2003 the labour force is 3 283.1 thousands persons and the activity rate is 49.2%. The number of the economically active population decreases by 48.9 thousands in comparison with 2002 and the activity rate decreases by 0.2%. During the period 1998 – 2003 the lowest level of employment is in 2001 – 39.8%, after that it gradually increases and reaches 42.4% in 2003. In 2003 the number of the employed persons is 2 834.0 thousands, which is by 94.4 thousands or by 3.4% more in comparison with the previous year. The employment rate in the towns is considerably higher than in villages - 46.6 % against 33.0%. In 2003 the employed men are 1 500.0 thousands (52.9%), the employed women are 1 334.0 (47.1%). The male employment rate is higher than female employment rate in all age groups of the population. The highest employment rate is in 35 – 44 age group – 74.4%, followed by 45 – 54 age group (67.9%) and 25 – 34 age group (65.4%). In 2003 the employment rates for different levels of education are in proportion to the level of education and they change from 67.9% for higher education to 9.5% for primary and primary unfinished. The tendency of increase of the employment in the private sector continues – 2/3 of all employed persons are in the private sector in 2003. After 2001 the unemployment rate comparatively quickly decreases – from 19.7% in 2001 it reaches 17.8% in 2002 and in 2003 is 13.7% (below the level of 1998). The number of the unemployed persons in 2003 is 449.1 thousands, of which 54.8% are men and 45.2% - women. The male unemployment rate (14.1%) is higher than female unemployment rate (13.2%). The tendency of higher rural unemployment rate (16.2%) than urban one (12.9%) continues. The values of unemployment rates are in inverse proportion to the level of education and they change from 6.8% for higher education to 33.5% for primary and primary unfinished. The comparatively long-term unemployment in the country is a big economic and social problem. 293.7 thousands persons are unemployed more than one year. The relative share of long-term unemployed persons increases from 57.0% in 1998 to 65.4% in 2003. In 2003 the number of discouraged persons is 434.5 thousands, of which 230.1 thousands are men and 204.4 – women. The discouraged persons are 12.8% of all persons not in labour force – respectively 15.8% of men and 10.6% of women. In the territorial aspect the employment is highest in South – West region – 47.3% of the population, 15 years of age and over in 2003. The lowest employment continues to be in North – West region – 35.3%. The unemployment rate changes from 11.1% for South Central region to 19.4% for North – East planning region.

17

The results from regular Labour Force Surveys described the stable decreasing tendency for the employment rate during the period 1997-2003, with the lowest value of 39.8% in 2001. The employment rate increases after 2001 and in 2003 is 42.4%- with 1.9 points less than in 1997. In 2003 the annual average employment rate is 42.4% and the number of employed is 2834.0 thous. persons.

Changes in employment rate in 2003, compare to 1997 and 2001 by regions of planning

2.6 South-West-1.1 2.8 -3.2 South Central 4.7 South-East-1.8 1.7 2003-2001 -4.5 North-East 2003-1997 1.7 North Central-0.5 3.0 North-West 1.3 2.6 -1.9 Total

-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

In 2003 compared to 1997 the employment rate decreased in all regions except the North West. While compared 2003 to 2001 – the year with lowest employment rate, the tendency is positive. • For 2003 the employment rate is highest for South West region (47.3%). Within that region are districts with highest employment rate among other districts – Blagoevgrad (49.8%), Sofia (49.3%), Sofia capital (48.2%).The other two southern regions followed the South West one with employment rates of 42.5% for South Central Region and 41.4% for South East region. • A s a whole for the observed period the regions in the north part of the country have a lower employment rate than those in the southern part. • The district of Vidin has the lowest employment for 2003 – 31.1% followed by Targovishe – 34.7% and Vratsa – 35.1%.

During the past years governments have recognized the need for active policies aiming to overcome poverty and unemployment. While during the first years of transition anti-poverty efforts were focused on passive measures, mainly direct financial aid to the poor, at present they emphasize on encouraging population to participate in different programmes for intensive employment. At the same time it was realized that restructuring and development of the system for social services is needed, as well as employment and education systems. Structural changes in the economy caused changes in the structure of employment and had a clear influence on the level of unemployment. Statistical data from the sample LFS carried out by the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria surveyed evidence about the following: During the period 1997-2003 the decreasing tendency is observed for economic activity rate. In 1997 the economic activity rate was 51.8% and for 2003 it was 49.2%.

18 • In 2003 the activity rate was highest in the South West region (53.3) and lowest in North West region (42.2).

Activity rate by planning regions 1997-2003

60.0

50.0 1997 1998 40.0 1999

% 30.0 2000 2001 20.0 2002 10.0 2003 0.0

Total West

North-East outh-East North-West S South- North Central South Central regions

For the observed period the decrease in economic activity rate is 2.6 percentage points. • The biggest decrease is in the South Central planning region – minus 4.1 points followed by North East region (-3.5), North Central region (-3.2), South East (-2.5), North West (-2.6), South West region – 0.7 points.

Changes in economic activity rate by planning regions in 2003 compare to 1997

0.0 Total North- North North-East South- South South- -0.5 West Central East Central West-0.7 -1.0

-1.5 -2.0 2003-1997 % -2.5 -2.6 -2.6 -2.5 -3.0 -3.2 -3.5 -3.5 -4.0 -4.1 -4.5 planning region

19 • The positive changes in economic activity rate in 2003, compare to 1997, are observed in 7 districts – Sofia (+6.3), Yambol (+5.1), Smolyan (+2.9), Varna (+1.6) and Ryse. Montana and Gabrovo – below one point.

The unemployment was an unknown problem for Bulgarian society during the pre- transition period. That is why the loss of working place both for men and women presents not only a loss of income for them and their families but also a loss of possibility for professional realization. In the course of carried out Labour Force Surveys since 1997 a tendency of growth of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate was observed (in 2001 the unemployment rate reached it’s highest value – 19.7% per country. In 2002 the unemployment was 17.8% and in 2003 the unemployment rate drop significantly to 13.7%, which is the lowest value for the period 1997-2003. The number of unemployed in 2003 is 449.1 thous. people.

• The unemployment rate for 2001 is highest (1997-2003) for all planning region and districts. That is why we find it important to compare 2003 with 2001 and to see the decrease by districts and regions. The decrease in unemployment exists for all regions and districts except Targovishte (+3.3 points). The biggest difference is observed for the North West region, where in 2001 the unemployment rate was highest. The unemployment decreased with 11.8 points (from 28.3% to 16.5%). There are contradictory influences which have contributed to the employment and unemployment performance of youth in CECs. All over the region, social and economic transformation has introduced a sudden depreciation of existing work experience, which under the circumstances forms one of the central assets of prime age workers. The rapid pace of changes obviously favoured young people because of their natural learning capacity and openness to innovations, particularly if supported by modern education. 3 A great part of the unemployed young people do not have not any working or professional experience or this working experience is extremely insufficient. That is why the employers do not prefer them and in the majority of cases young people can find temporary or seasonal job only (usually not corresponding to their qualification). The balance between favourable and unfavourable factors vary from one country to another, resulting in diverse experiences across the CEC region. According to Employment and labour market in Central European countries – EUROSTAT, 2001 the highest rate of youth unemployment (15-25 years of age) in the year of 2000 are reported by Bulgaria (39.4%), Slovakia and Poland.

3 Employment and labour market in Central European countries – EUROSTAT, 2001

20 Unemployed registered at labour offices up to 29 years of age

200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 1997 100000 80000 2003 60000 40000 20000 0 Total North- North North- South- South South- West Central East East Central West

During the period 1997-2003 the number of unemployed up to 29 years of age, registered at labour offices decreased from 183686 in 1997 to 134 285 in 2003, or with 36.8%. The biggest decrease is observed in South West region –with 77%, followed by South Central region, North Central, North West, South East and North East regions.

HEALTH SERVICES For the period 1997-2003 a decrease in the number of hospital and sanatoria beds is observed (in 2003 the number of beds in hospitals and dispensaries is by about 42% less). The health establishments’ accreditation and transformation in accordance with the Act on medical institutions led to further diminution of the number of hospital beds. But at the same time, it must be taken into consideration that the population’s assurance with hospital beds (respectively 63 hospital beds 10000 of population (2003) and medical staff (36 physicians per 10000 of population) is comparable with the population supply in developed countries. When analyzing the data about health establishments and indicators on the number of beds and personnel in the establishments, some specific characteristics of health care activities should be held under consideration. The health establishments are not directly connected to the servicing of population of a given settlement or even of municipality. A great part of health establishments serve the population of a given region or a group of municipalities, and the specialized health care establishments – oncological, dermato- venereological, psychiatric, pulmonary and other service the population of 2 or 3 regions. The establishments under central administration, regardless of their location, serve the population from the whole country. The following table contains data for the population’s assurance with beds in hospitals and dispensaries and population per physician by planning regions in 2003. The data shows that the South West region has the highest supply of hospital beds per 10 000 of population. The lowest number of hospital beds is in the South East planning region.

21

Beds in hospitals and dispensaries as Population per

of 31.12. per physician as of 10000 of 31.12. population Total 63.0 277 North-West 53.8 326 North Central 60.5 304 North-East 51.1 300 South-East 48.5 381 South Central 62.4 308 South-West 68.2 237

The South West region has the lowest number of population per physician, which means that the assurance of the population is better. In most unfavorable position by that indictor are the South East and North West regions just as they are for the supply of hospital beds. As to the health status of children the results from 2001 HIS could give an estimation but on a national level due to the representatives of the results. The interview covers the whole population and for children up to 14 years of age it was proxy. In Health Interview Survey investigators consider as a general question toward the self-assessment of health the Q “ How do you evaluate your health”. As it was already mentioned above HIS covers all non- institutional population and is a proxy survey for children up to 14 years of age.

Respondents’ distribution on Q "How do you evaluate your health?" by age groups

Age groups Total

0-19 0-16 17-19

% within the same age group

Very good 35.1 26.3 33.7

Good 54.4 57.8 54.9

Satisfactory 8.6 13.4 9.3

Bad 1.6 1.6 1.6

Very bad 0.3 0.9 0.4

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0

Persons with very bad, bad and satisfactory health status are persons with deteriorated health. For the studied age groups children up to 16 years of age with deteriorated health are 10.5 % among all children of the same age group. Those with deteriorated health who are 17-19 years of age are 15.9 % of the same age group. A correspondence between the percentage of children with “bad health” and those that reported long-term disability is seen.

22 Significant to the subject of this report are the respondents’ distribution on Q “ Do you have a long – standing illness or health problem?”. Here the results form 2001 HIS show than 8.7 % of children aged 0-16 and 12.5 % from those aged 17-19 reported by means of proxy interview, that they have a long – standing illness or health problem.

HOUSEHOLD’S INCOME AND EXPENDITURES In 2003 the real households’ income reaches 131.6% of the level in 1996, but it is still below the level of 1995 – the decrease is by 9.3 %. The income is higher by 4.8% in comparison with 2002. The relative share of income from wages and salaries in the gross income in 2003 reaches 40.0%. This share was 37.4% in 2002 and 38.0% in 1995. The relative share of paid social transfers (compensations, pensions, benefits, family allowances and scholarships) increases from 17.2 % in 1995 to 23.0 % in 2003 or by 5.8 points. The pensions dominate in this position of income. During the period 1995 – 2003 the relative share of pensions in the gross households’ income is highest in 2001, when reaches 23.7% and it decreases to 20.6% in 2003. There is a tendency of decrease of the households’ differentiation and polarization by income for the period 1995 – 2000, but since 2001 a tendency of gradually increase is developed. The Gini coefficient increases in 2001 and 2002 and reaches respectively 0.317 and 0.342. In 2003 the value of this coefficient – 0.327 decreases compared to the previous year. The polarization of the population by income is 9.5 times. The relative share of the consumer expenditure in the total expenditure of households reaches 86.6 % in 2003 (as well as in 2002) and it increases by 0.5 points compared to 2001 and by 2.9 points regarding 1995. Foods take the most considerable share of the consumer expenditure as well as of total households’ expenditure in 2003 - 40.4 % (the lowest value during the period 1995 - 2003) and they are by 2.1 points lower in comparison with 2002. The increase of the share of expenditure for housing, water, electricity and fuels continues and it reaches 14.1 % in 2003 (by 2.0 points higher than 2001 and by 7.1 points compared to 1995). The share of the expenditure for health services and communications continues to increases (1.9% in 1995, 3.9% in2001, 4.3 % in 2003) and for communications (0.8% in 1995, 3.3% in 2001, 4.7% in 2003). Simultaneously with the relatively decrease of expenditure for foods the consumption of almost all main foods (in kind) increases in 2003 in comparison with the previous years during the observed period. This is connected to a great extent with the traditionally high relative share of income by kind in gross households’ income. There is an increase of the consumption in 2003 compared to 2001 for the following products: fresh fruits (35.8%), yellow cheese (19.0%), meat (18.7%), yoghurt (16.9%), meat products (14.4%), white cheese (10.9%), dry been (8.1%), vegetables (7.0%). In 2003 the consumption of bread and milk decreases more considerably – respectively by 6.7 and 6.1% in comparison with 2001. The highest gross income (average per capita) is in North – West planning region – 2 326 Levs, which is higher by 9.3% than the average for the country. The lowest gross income (average per capita) is in South – East region – 2 078 Levs and it is by 2.4% lower than the average for the country. HOUSEHOLD INCOME, EXPENDITURE AND CONSUMPTION BY PLANNING REGIONS

HOUSEHOLD INCOME

Six planning regions were created due to the increasing demand of analysis of regional discrepancies and necessity the appropriate regional policy, compliant to European requirements, to be conducted. Data on household income, expenditure and consumption by planning regions for 2003 are based on monthly Household Budget Survey including 3000

23 households total for the country, which ensures representative results by separate regions and outlines some particularities of those territorial units.

HOUSEHOLDS OBSERVED IN 2003 BY PLANNING REGIONS*

(Number) Observed: Total North- North- North- South- South- South- West Central East West Central East

Households 3000 210 462 486 810 732 300 Persons 7869 544 1167 1293 2060 1997 808

*Planning regions territory consists of districts included territory:

North-West : Vidin, Vratsa, Montana; North-Central: Veliko Tarnovo, Gabrovo, Lovech, Pleven, Ruse; North-East: Varna, Dobrich, Razgrad, Silistra, Targovishte, Shumen; South-West: Blagoevgrad, Kyustendil, Pernik, Sofia cap.,Sofia; South-Central: Kardzhali, Pazardzhik, Plovdiv, Smolyan, Stara Zagora, Haskovo; South-East: Burgas, Sliven, Yambol.

Basic sources of income in 2003 are wages and salaries , pensions and household plot. All the planning regions in the North Bulgaria are characterised by higher income from household plot than from pensions. The highest average gross income per household member is observed in North-West planning region and it is 9.3% higher than the average gross income for the country. Compared to the rest planning regions, North-West one is the smallest according to its territory and number of population. It is characterised by high unemployment rate and ageing of population. Basic source of income is household plot. Within the structure of region gross income, share of household plot (31.1 %) exceeds the income from wages and salaries (29.8 %) and pensions (18.4 %). Gross income per household member in North-West region is 248 BGL or (10.7%) higher compared to South–East region, where it is 2.4% lower than the average for the country. Most considerable discrepancies between the regions are observed in income from wages and salaries and household plot. There is a difference amounting to 305 BGL between South-West region, having the highest average annual income per household member from wages and salaries and North-West region, where this income is the lowest. The opposite is observed concerning the absolute size of income from household plot. In North-West region average income from household plot per household member is 534 BGL or 3.8 times higher compared to South-West region.

24

GROSS INCOME* AVERAGE PER HOUSEHOLD MEMBER BY SOURCES AND PLANNING REGIONS IN 2003

Sources Total North- North- North- South- South- South- West Central East West Central East

Average per capita –BGL

Gross income 2129 2326 2216 2094 2098 2099 2078 Wages and salaries 852 693 830 771 998 803 868 Other earnings 82 74 87 66 99 75 78 Entrepreneurship 89 35 70 91 69 132 95 Property income 12 1 9 13 17 5 29 Unemployment benefits 11 22 11 14 7 12 12 Pensions 439 429 445 381 503 424 407 Family allowances 12 16 16 12 12 10 13 Other social benefits 27 35 51 21 21 19 31 Household plot 388 724 457 488 190 411 347 Property sale 14 3 7 26 28 3 7 Miscellaneous 203 294 233 211 154 205 191 Interest income 52 35 51 69 40 48 94 Loans and credit 58 72 61 79 53 46 49 Loans repaid 5 8 4 5 2 7 3 Total 2244 2441 2332 2247 2193 2200 2224

Structure - %

Gross income 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Wages and salaries 40.0 29.8 37.5 36.8 47.6 38.3 41.8 Other earnings 3.8 3.2 4.0 3.1 4.7 3.6 3.8 Entrepreneurship 4.2 1.5 3.2 4.4 3.3 6.3 4.6 Property income 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.3 1.4 Unemployment benefits 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 Pensions 20.6 18.4 20.1 18.2 24.0 20.2 19.6 Family allowances 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 Other social benefits 1.3 1.5 2.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.5 Household plot 18.2 31.1 20.6 23.3 9.1 19.6 16.7 Property sale 0.7 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.1 0.3 Miscellaneous 9.5 12.8 10.4 10.1 7.3 9.6 9.1

*Monetary and in kind .

The analysis of structure of gross income shows that the differences between planning regions are mainly based on income from wages and salaries, household plot and entrepreneurship. South-West planning region, having the lowest registered unemployment rate in 2003 has the highest share of income from wages and salaries within the structure of gross income – 47.6%. At the same time, North-West planning region characterised by high unemployment rate has the lowest share of income from wages and salaries – 29.8%. More considerable discrepancies between these regions are observed concerning income from household plot. Income from household plot in North-West region is almost 1/3 of the gross income, compared to less than 1/10 in South-West region. South-Central region has the highest share of income from entrepreneurship – 6.3% and North-West – the lowest – just 1.5%.

25

HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE

The average overall expenditure per household member is highest in South-West planning region in 2003, exceeding by 96 BGL or 5.5% average for the country. On average per household member, the biggest share of expenditure is on food, clothing and footwear, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, transport, communications, miscellaneous goods and services, recreation, culture and education. The reason is the highest average monetary income per capita, which exceed country average monetary income by 204 BGL (12.3%). Monetary income from wages and salaries, pensions, other earnings, property and property sales is the highest compared to the rest planning regions. Despite the highest average gross income per capita in North-West region (mainly due to the highest household plot income), the overall expenditure is 4.4% lower compared to the average country overall expenditure. Compared to the rest planning regions, smallest is the share of expenditure on food, health, furnishing and maintenance of house, miscellaneous goods and services, transport, communications, recreation, culture and education. Monetary income per capita in the region is 206 BGL (12.4%) lower than the average country monetary income. Monetary income from wages and salaries, entrepreneurship and property sales is lowest compared to the rest planning regions.

OVERALL PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE* BY GROUPS AND PLANNING REGIONS IN 2003

Expenditure groups Total North- North- North- South- South- South- West Central East West Central East

Average per capita –BGL

Overall expenditure 1748 1670 1772 1695 1844 1687 1758 Consumer expenditure 1514 1392 1502 1459 1630 1477 1493 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 707 695 669 677 743 721 689 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 71 91 75 83 68 59 68 Clothing and footwear 61 50 59 58 65 63 65 Housing, water, electricity, gas and 246 218 265 231 281 222 230 other fuels Furnishing and maintenance of the 57 49 55 59 55 62 57 house Health 76 54 78 66 94 70 71 Transport 93 63 90 90 106 90 102 Communications 81 74 85 79 86 76 85 Recreation, culture and education 62 50 66 57 69 59 61 Miscellaneous goods and services 60 48 60 59 63 55 65 Taxes 54 55 59 35 71 40 68 Household plot 45 72 53 54 18 55 49 Other expenditure 135 151 158 147 125 115 148 Saving deposits 47 27 33 47 66 31 75 Purchase of currency and securities 2 0 1 10 0 0 0 Debt paid out and loan granted 56 92 68 62 47 46 50 Total 1853 1789 1874 1814 1957 1764 1883

Structure - %

Overall expenditure 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Consumer expenditure 86.6 83.3 84.8 86.1 88.4 87.5 84.9

26 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 40.4 41.6 37.8 40.0 40.3 42.8 39.2 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 4.1 5.4 4.2 4.9 3.7 3.5 3.9 Clothing and footwear 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.7 Housing, water, electricity, gas and 14.1 13.1 14.9 13.6 15.2 13.1 13.1 other fuels Furn ishing and maintenance of the 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.0 3.7 3.2 house Health 4.3 3.3 4.4 3.9 5.1 4.1 4.0 Transport 5.4 3.8 5.1 5.3 5.7 5.3 5.8 Communications 4.7 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.9 Recreation, culture and education 3.5 3.0 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.4 Miscellaneous goods and services 3.3 2.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.7 Taxes 3.1 3.3 3.3 2.1 3.9 2.4 3.9 Household plot 2.6 4.3 3.0 3.2 1.0 3.2 2.8 Other expenditure 7.7 9.1 8.9 8.6 6.7 6.9 8.4 *Monetary and in kind.

The differences between the planning regions within the structure of overall expenditure are less obvious. More considerable differences can be seen for expenditure on food and household plot. Most expenditure is done on food. The share of expenditure on food is 40.4% total for the country. Expenditure on food is lowest in North-Central region (37.8%) and highest in South-Central region – 42.8%. Within the structure of overall expenditure, the share of expenditure on household plot in North-West region is 4.3% and just 1% - in South-west region.

AVERAGE GROSS INCOME AND OVERALL EXPENDITURE PER HOUSEHOLD MEMBER BY PLANNING REGIONS WITHIN THE PERIOD 2000 - 2003

((BGL) Total North- North- North- South- South- South- West Central East West Central East

Gross income

2000 1574 1707 1542 1459 1705 1573 1392 2001 1589 1698 1529 1496 1749 1561 1447 2002 1985 2135 2022 1953 2011 1912 1988 2003. 2129 2326 2216 2094 2098 2099 2078

Overall expenditure

2000 1383 1398 1334 1257 1553 1370 1258 2001 1420 1393 1376 1296 1608 1398 1322 2002 1624 1519 1573 1550 1788 1552 1647 2003 1748 1670 1772 1695 1844 1687 1758

The average gross income per capita in North-West region is highest in 2000, 2002 and 2003. Gross income from household plot is highest compared to the rest regions within the whole period (2000-2003). In 2001 the region takes the second place after South-West region. South-West planning region is the one having the lowest gross annual income per capita in 2000, 2001 and 2003. Nevertheless, within the period (2000-2003) gross income per capita increase by 49.3%, compared to 35.3% increase total for the country.

27 South-West region takes the first place according to overall expenditure per capita within the period 2000-2003. The region has the lowest unemployment and the highest monetary income per capita within the observed period.

FOOD CONSUMPTION

Differences between the regions in food consumption are based mainly on level of income, geographic allocation and traditions existing in growing agricultural products.

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF BASIC FOODS BY PLANNING REGION IN 2003*

Foods Total North- North- North- South- South- South- West Central East West Central East

Bread and paste products kg 124.2 133.6 118.4 127.7 121.4 126.1 122.9 Meat kg 24.8 32.4 26.3 25.5 21.1 25.6 24.0 Meat products kg 11.9 11.1 12.8 10.4 11.6 13.2 11.1 Milk liters 26.0 23.8 20.5 21.7 29.5 30.1 23.1 Yogurt kg 25.6 17.3 19.7 19.7 28.9 30.9 27.5 White cheese kg 10.2 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.6 10.3 10.8 Yellow cheese kg 2.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 3.8 2.7 2.7 Butter kg 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 Fruit kg 41.3 41.8 40.4 42.0 38.4 45.4 38.9 Vegetables kg 63.7 62.0 62.5 63.2 59.0 70.7 62.4 Dry beans kg 4.0 5.5 3.9 3.8 3.6 4.0 4.1 Potatoes kg 27.9 24.2 24.0 24.3 29.4 32.7 26.2 *Catering data are not included

There are considerable differences between the planning regions having highest and lowest food consumption in 2003. Average meat consumption per capita in North-West region is 11.3 kg higher, compared to South-West region; vegetables consumption in South- Central region is 11.7 kg higher than in South-West region and fruit consumption in South- Central region is 7 kg higher compared to South-West planning region.

South-Central region is characterized by highest per capita annual consumption of: vegetables (70.7 кg), fruits (45.4 kg), potatoes (32.7 kg), yogurt (30.9 kg), milk (30.1 kg), meat products (13.2 kg) and butter (0.8 kg). In North-West region consumption of bread and paste products (133.6 kg.), meat (32.4 kg) and dry beans (5.5 kg) is highest and of yogurt (17.3 kg), white cheese (9.3 kg) and yellow cheese (1.4 kg) - lowest.

In 2003 the average annual nominal wages and salaries - total for the country is 3 408 Levs (4 110 Levs in the public sector and 2 974 Levs in the private sector) ant its nominal increase is by 10.3% in comparison with 2002 (6.2% in the public sector and 13.8% in the private sector). The real average wages and salaries in 2003 increase by 7.7% compared to the previous wear and the real minimum wages and salaries – by 7.5%. The highest wages and salaries gain the personnel in “Financial intermediation” – 7 102 Levs in the public sector and 7 915 Levs in the private sector. The employed persons in “Electricity, gas and water supply” take second place according to the amount of wages and salaries – 6 127 Levs in the public sector and 5 850 Levs in the private sector).

28 Data for average annual salary of the employees under labor contract is from the statistical survey in the enterprises. The average salary covers both public and private sectors. The average salaries/ wages have increased significantly for the period 1997-2002 (data for 2003 are still not available). In 2002 the salaries are 101% than in 1997 and all planning regions and districts mention the increase in salaries/ wages. The employees under labour contract by Labour Code and under contract according to Civil Servant Act (in November 2003), who work in enterprises or organizations, where the monthly average wages and salaries are between 200.01 and 300.00 Levs have highest relative share - 28.4 %. This group includes near the half (46%) of the employees in the sphere of the budget financed organizations, which are 10.2% of all employees. Near 70% of the employees under labour contract by Labour Code and under contract according to Civil Servant Act work in enterprises and organizations with average wages and salaries up to 300 Levs. The analysis of the results for 2002 shows, that the average annual wages and salaries for all classes of professions (excepting legislators, senior officials, managers and professionals) is higher in the public sector compared to the private sector. Biggest are the differences regarding the skilled workers – 1 704 Levs and for plant and machine operators and assemblers – 1 364 Levs. The smallest is the difference for managers (6 695 Levs in the public sector against 6 842 Levs in the private sector). The legislators, senior officials and managers, followed by the professionals gain the highest wages and salaries in the public sector as well as in the private sector. The pensioners in the country are 2 330 760 persons as of 31.12.2003. The relative share of the pensioners during the period 1998 – 2003 remains in the limits 29 – 30%, as in 2002 and 2003 it is 29.9%. The average monthly amount of paid pensions is 110.65 Levs per pensioner in 2003 and it increases nominally by 8.2 % and really – by 5.6% in comparison with 2002. Over the half of pensioners (59.9 %) receives pensions up to 110.00 Levs as of December 2003. 82 886 persons or 3.6% of the pensioners receive over 200.00 Levs monthly. During the period 1998 - 2002 the correlation between the average pension and the average wages and salaries changes from 33.3% in 1999 to 39.7% in 2002 and 39.0% in 2003. The statistical survey on poverty is an integral part of elaboration the strategy of its decrease – purpose of the social policy of every one country. According to the officially accepted poverty line – 102 Levs consumer expenditure per equivalent person the poverty rate in the country is 14%. There is not only differentiation, but also high polarization of the society according the consumer expenditure. They reflect also on the depth of poverty – the consumer expenditure per equivalent member of poor household are about 80% of the line of poverty. The total number of poor households in the country is 409 000 or 1 113 000 persons. Near 61% of the poor persons are urban population, the rest 39% - rural population as the poverty is concentrated in the smaller towns and villages (17 – 18%). The analysis of the influence of different demographic characteristics of the households and their members on the level of poverty shows the large families and families of solitary, divorces and widowed parents, who bring up their children by oneself as risk groups. In these groups 71 472 households (families) are poor, predominant part of them – 50 644 households are with one parent only as risk groups. The poverty of the large families and families with one parent only naturally reflects also on the level of poverty for the children up to 14 years of age, which is considerably over the average level – by about 6 – 8%. The level of poverty for the solitary pensioners is 16.7%. It is more higher for the solitary pensioners over 65 years of age – 17.4%. The group of young people up to 29 years of age, whose poverty is determined by the high level of unemployment adds to the risk of groups. The education is a statistical proven factor with biggest importance for the level of poverty. The most lower is the education, it is more likely the households to be poor and the poorest households are these, which head has primary (45.6%) or basic (20.3%) level of education.

29 According to the individual economic status of the members of households in danger of poverty in highest level are the unemployed persons (29.5%) and inactive persons (23.7%). The influence of this factor is still highly for the registered unemployed persons without right of compensation (40.3%). The most risk group is of the so called discouraged unemployed persons – persons who have been seeking job for a long time, but they gave up because they consider that have not any chance to find work – poor are near 60% of them. The study on the influence of economic status on the level of poverty shows, that every working person decreases the risk of poverty by 1/3, while every unemployed person ‘distributes’ for increase of the risk by 50%.

EDUCATION The knowledge and skills of those employed in the economy and state administration in present-day conditions attain crucial importance for the socio-economic development of the country. Higher education in general means higher intellectual potential of the human resources as a whole and prosperity for every individual. The educational system and the processes in it are the object of regular statistical surveys the results of which enable the tracing of the changes in the basic educational indicators. Educational attainment is statistically estimated by the structure of the adult population (or of different groups of the population) according to the highest level of completed education. During the 1999 - 2003 period the educational structure of the population 4 aged 25 - 64 continues to improve following the clear-cut tendency towards an increase of the number and share of the population with higher and secondary education together with the decrease of the number and share of people with primary and lower education. The relative share of the population with higher education (college and university) increased from 18% in 1999 to 22% in 2003 or by 4 points and the share of those with secondary education has increased by 1 point - from 50% to 51%. Parallel to this the relative share of persons with primary and lower education decreased by 5 points - from 32% to 27%. This means that 73% of the population at the most active working age (25 - 64 years of age) is with secondary or higher education and this is a good prerequisite for a faster economic and social prosperity. The estimation of the population’s educational level could be done by population structure by levels of education. The percentage of population with higher, college and secondary education is 51.9% according to the 2001 Population Census Data. The share of illiterates is 1.8%. The following table illustrates the territorial distribution of population with higher, college and secondary eduction and the illiterate population.

4 The data on the educational structure of the population are from the last labour force survey for the corresponding year.

30

% of population at 7 and more % of llite- age in a particular region and rate population at 7 and district with higher, college and more age in a particular March 2001 secondary educational level region and district Population Census Total 51.9 1.8 North-West 47.9 1.3 Vidin 47.5 1.6 Vratsa 49.4 1.3 Montana 46.1 1.1

North Central 52.4 1.1 Veliko Tarnovo 53.2 0.9 Gabrovo 57.8 0.5 Lovech 50.4 1.7 Pleven 50.8 1.3 Ruse 51.7 1.0 North-East 46.1 2.3 Varna 56.6 1.6 Dobrich 42.3 3.2 Razgrad 36.2 2.4 Silistra 39.2 4.0 Targovishte 39.7 2.1 Shumen 42.7 1.9 South-East 46.5 2.9 Burgas 49.3 2.3 Sliven 42.1 4.5 Yambol 45.0 2.3

South Central 47.6 2.5 Kardzhali 33.5 5.5 Pazardzhik 43.2 2.6 Plovdiv 52.5 2.0 Smolyan 44.1 2.0 Stara Zagora 51.6 2.2 Haskovo 44.6 2.7 South-West 62.5 0.8 Blagoevgrad 46.1 1.8 Kyustendil 51.3 1.3 Pernik 52.7 0.6 Sofia cap. 73.4 0.4 Sofia 47.7 1.4

Data from March 2001 Population Census show that the population with tertiary and college level is 14.1%. The shares vary significantly by planning regions and districts. In the South West region the share of persons with tertiary and college degree is highest – 20.4%. In the same region is Sofia capital district where population with that education level is 28.8%. The

31 North Central Region occupies the second place with 12.6%. Three of distrticts in that region have a high percentage of high-educated population. Gabrovo, Veliko Tarnovo and Ruse. PRE-PRIMARY EDUCATION During the last years a constant tendency towards a decrease of the number of children in kindergartens is observed. The main factor influencing this tendency is low fertility. The number of children in kindergartens for 2003 is 201.1 thousand, 10.8 thousand or 5.1% less than their number in 1999 and 0.2 thousand less in comparison with the previous school year. The stable total number of children in kindergartens is due mainly to the increased number of children in half-day preparatory groups where education was made compulsory. The number of children in half-day kindergartens has increased from 13.7 thousand in 2002 to 16.1 thousand - an increase of 2.4 thousand or 17.3%.

Thousands 212 212 210 208 206 204 201 201 202 200 200 199 198 196 194 192 9 0 3 0 99 00 1 20 2001 2002 2

Number of children in kindergartens

The coverage of children by kindergartens estimated by the group net enrolment rate has increased from 74.2% for 2002 to 74.6% for 2003. 183.5 thousand children, or 91.2% of the total are enrolled in all-day kindergartens or kindergartens working on a weekly basis. The average number of children per kindergarten is 61 - in urban areas this number is larger - 99 and for the rural areas it is 29. The average number of children forming one group is 22 - 23 in urban areas and 18 in rural areas. The teaching personnel employed in kindergartens are 18.7 thousand from which 1.1 thousand are directors without groups. In comparison with 2002 the total number of teaching personnel has increased by 399 persons or by 2.2%. Parallel with this the relative share of teachers with higher education with ‘Bachelor’ and ‘Master’ degrees increases - from 42.9% in 1999 to 56.6% in 2003. This is a prerequisite for better prospects for implementing contemporary methods of education and training. Private kindergartens, which successfully compete with municipal ones by offering better conditions are an alternative for a very small number of parents. In 2003 there were 24 licensed private kindergartens with 605 enrolled children, their relative share being a mere 0.3% of the total number of children in kindergartens. The decrease in the number of children in kindergartens is observed in all planning regions and correspondingly to the population decrease tendencies the highest decrease is for the North West region, while for South West region the decrease is lower than one percent.

32

GENERAL EDUCATION

In the beginning of the school year 2003/2004 there are classes in 2 696 general education schools. Out of these 311 are primary schools, 1 778 basic schools, 22 lower secondary schools, and 165 secondary and 420 combined schools. In comparison with the previous school year because of closure or transformation the total number of general education schools decreased by 24, out of which 21 were in the rural areas. During the current 2003/2004 school year the number of students in all kinds of general education schools is 795.9 thousand, of which 176.7 thousand in rural areas. In comparison with the previous school year the number of students in general education decreased by 29.7 thousand or 3.6%. In general education schools the number of girls is larger compared to the number of boys - 50.6% of the total number of students. In comparison with the 1999/2000 school year the total number of the students in general education schools has decreased by 91.3 thousand or 10.3%. For primary and pre-secondary education this reduction is 20.1% and 10.0% respectively and for secondary education there is an increase of 15.2%. The increase of the number of students in secondary education is due mainly to two factors - the prolonged term of education and the enlarged coverage by this type of education of young people of this age. The newly enrolled pupils in first grade of the general education schools for the 2003/2004 school year is 71.2 thousand. Together with those repeating the grade the number of first graders comes to a total of 71.8 thousand. Most often (in 85.8% of cases) children enroll in first grade in the year in which they reach 7 years of age. The available data show that during the 1999/2000 school year 66.5% of the students in general education schools were studying a foreign language while during the present one they are already 79.9% of the total number of students.

The early teaching of foreign languages is becoming more common for the beginning stages of the primary education. The relative share of children in general education schools who study foreign languages in the primary grades (I - IV) is 49.6% or 11.8 points higher than the one for the previous school year. The greatest interest is towards English, which is studied by 464.5 thousand students, or 73.1% of those who study foreign languages. During the previous 2002/2003 school year for different reasons 22.6 thousand students have left the general education schools, of which 18.8 thousand are in basic education. One should not consider them as having left the educational system once and for all. It is possible that in the following school years they might continue their education in the same or in another school since education is compulsory till the age of 16. The largest relative share of students who have left is that of students leaving because of family reasons - 9.0 thousand, or 40.0% of all leaving students. The share of those who left because of unwillingness to study is also considerable - 6.2 thousand or 27.6%. In 2002 81.6 thousand students graduated from basic education. During the same year 33.3 thousand persons have graduated secondary education in the general education schools. The total number of the teaching staff employed in general education schools during the 2003/2004 school year is 61.4 thousand. Almost all are with higher education - 98.9%.

33 83.4% of teachers are with higher education and a degree of ‘Bachelor’ and ‘Master’, while 15.5% hold the degree of ‘Specialist’. Women are predominant in the teaching profession - they are 83.2% of the total number of teachers. In the day general education schools there are 13 students to one teacher and in one class there are 22 students on average - the same number as in the previous year. As of 1.10.2003 there were 54 private general education schools in the country. Out of these there are 6 primary schools, 19 basic and lower secondary, 24 secondary schools and 5 combined schools. There are 5 529 students studying in private general education schools. Only 0.7% from the total number of general education school children study in private schools. Students with a chronic illness, handicapped students and students in a nonequivalent social position (permanently or temporarily without parents and family) are studying in 127 special schools. These are in total 14.4 thousand of children. 2 079 specialist teachers and 1 343 caretakers are taking care of their education and upbringing. In 2003 566 students graduated from basic education, and 95 students from secondary education.

VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET)

Vocational education and training during the school year 2003/2004 is carried out in 19 art schools, 457 vocational gymnasiums, 7 vocational schools and 13 vocational colleges with enrollment after secondary education. The total number of the students in vocational education and training during this school year is 211.4 thousand, and compared with the 1999/2000 school year it has increased by 18.9 thousand or 9.8% and compared with the previous one - by 4.4%. Boys are predominant in vocational education and training and are 61.8% of the total number of students. For the school year 2003/2004 students in vocational education have increased by 9.8% in comparison with the 1999/2000 school year or by 4.4% in comparison with the previous school year. The system of vocational education and training prepares students for realization in the economy and other spheres of social life by creating conditions for acquiring vocational qualification and for its continuous improvement. Art schools carry out vocational training for acquiring third degree vocational qualification, vocational gymnasiums carry out vocational education for acquiring second and third degree vocational qualification. Vocational schools realize programs for acquiring first and second degree vocational qualification. From the 2003/2004 school year on those that graduated from vocational gymnasiums and vocational schools will be getting only a secondary education diploma if they do not take a state examination for acquiring a degree of vocational qualification. In 2003, 44.3 thousand persons have graduated from secondary education in art schools, vocational gymnasiums and the vocational schools. 29.8 thousand from them acquired second degree vocational training and 1.6 thousand - third degree vocational training. In vocational schools and classes with enrollment after 6 and 7 grade or after completed basic education 630 students have acquired first degree vocational qualification. In vocational colleges with enrollment after completed secondary education 2.6 thousand people have acquired fourth degree vocational qualification. During the present school year the total number of teachers working in VET schools is 19.4 thousand, of which 70.2% are women. The highest relative share is that of teachers with

34 a ‘Bachelor’ and ‘Master’ degree - 87.5%. During the 2003/2004 school year 2 535 students are trained in 36 private VET schools. The relative share of students who left vocational education and training during the 2003/2004 school year is 3.5%. Most often this is due to the unwillingness of the students or their parents to continue their education - in 35.1% of the cases and because of family reasons - 33.1%.

TERTIARY EDUCATION In the beginning of the academic year 2003/2004, 37.3 thousand new students - Bulgarian citizens were enrolled in universities and specialized higher schools and another 5.5 thousand were enrolled in colleges. 1.8 thousand foreign citizens are enrolled in universities and colleges. The total number of the students enrolled in the four education-qualification degrees (‘Specialist’, ‘Bachelor’, ‘Master’ and ‘Doctor’) is 228.5 thousand. From the academic year 2001/2002 NSI included computers in the educational process in the tertiary education survey programme. In 2001 the total number of the PCs in higher schools, which are used for teaching purposes, was 7.1 thousand. In the 2003/2004 academic year the total number of teaching purposes PCs have increased up to 9.4 thousand, out of which 6.5 thousand are used for teaching students directly in classes and 2.9 thousand - in computer rooms used outside classes. 100 students from the regular form of education during the present academic year are using 6 PCs, of which 4.3 are with Internet access.

1. ‘Bachelor’ and ‘Master’ degrees

During the 2003/2004 academic year the number of the universities and specialized higher schools is 42, of which 7 are private. The number of the students is 207.3 thousand and of them 199.7 thousand are Bulgarian citizens or 96.3%. Their number decreases by 4 276 or 2.1% compared with the previous 2002/2003 academic year.

Thousand 240 240 235 230 227 225 220 215 211 210 208 207 205 200 195 190 0 1 3 0 0 0 04 0 0 /20 /2 /20 /2 0 2 3 99 01/2002 9 0 00 1 200 2 2 200

Fig. 3. Students in universities and specialized higher schools

In the structure of students Bulgarian citizens by field of education, the highest relative share is that of students in the field of Business and Administration - 47.9 thousand or 24.0%,

35 followed by the one of students in the field of Engineering and Engineering Trades - 34.2 thousand or 17.1%. The share of students is lowest in the fields of Transport - 1.0%, Journalism and Information - 0.9%, Life Sciences - 0.8%, Veterinary - 0.7% and Mathematical Sciences - 0.5%. In the seven private universities 29.1 thousand students are studying or 14.0% of the total number of students. In comparison with the previous academic year their number has increased by 2.7%, and in comparison with the 1999/2000 academic year the increase is 16.7%, with a constant increase being observed since then. By mode of attendance students are distributed as follows: regular education - 145.1 thousand or 70.0% of the total number, extra-mural education - 57.6 thousand or 25.2% and distance learning - 4.6 thousand or 2.2%. In comparison with 2002/2003 academic year students in the distance learning have increased by 2.4 thousand, which is more than double. During the 2003/2004 academic year the number of foreign students in universities and specialized higher schools is 7.6 thousand or 344 persons more than the previous academic year. Their number remains comparatively constant since the 1999/2000 academic year. The highest share of foreign students studying in Bulgaria comes from Macedonia - 37.9% of the totals, followed by students from Greece 15.8% and Turkey - 12.5%. The number of newly enrolled students - Bulgarian citizens for the 2003/2004 academic year is 37.3 thousand or 329 persons more than the previous academic year. Among the newly enrolled the highest share is that of those who have graduated from general secondary education - 58.8%, followed by the one of those graduated from vocational gymnasiums - 39.2%. In 2003 43.3 thousand students have graduated with the degrees of ‘Bachelor’ and ‘Master’, of which 42.2 thousand are Bulgarian citizens. The relative share of Bulgarian students who have graduated is highest in the fields of Business and Administration - 30.3%, Social and Behavioral Sciences - 14.6%, Engineering and Engineering Trades - 12.2% and Teachers Training and Education Science - 10.1%. The number of teaching staff in the universities and specialized higher schools has increased from 18.7 thousand during the academic 2002/2003 to 20.2 thousand during 2003/2004 or by 8.1%. 12.5 thousand regularly employed are 4.0% more than in the previous year. The structure of the teaching staff by academic rank is the following: professors - 2 012 or 10.0% of the total number, associate professors - 6 120 or 30.3%, assistants - 9 305 or 46.0%, senior lecturers and lecturers - 2 738 or 13.5%, research associates with teaching employment - 43 or 0.2%.

2. Degree ‘Specialist in…’

During the 2003/2004 academic year education for acquiring the degree ‘Specialist in…’ is carried out in 9 independent colleges, of which 7 private ones, and in 41 colleges in the structure of universities. 16.3 thousand students are educated in them, of which 9.3 thousand are women or 57.0%. The number of the students in colleges increased by 10.1% in comparison with the previous 2002/2003 academic year.

36 Thousand 18 18.0 17.5 17 17.0 16.5 16 16 16.0 15.5 15 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 4 00 02 0 001 0 003 00 0/2 2/2 1999/2 200 2001/2 200 2003/2

Fig. 4. Students in colleges

3.7 thousand students are trained in private colleges and 99.8% of them are Bulgarian citizens. In the structure of Bulgarian students by fields of education, the highest relative share is that of students in the field of Engineering and Engineering Trades - 24.1% followed by the one of students in the field of Business and Administration - 19.2% and Health - 17.1%. In 2003 the degree ‘Specialist’ has been acquired by 3.6 thousand students of whom 97.2% are Bulgarian citizens. Among graduated Bulgarian citizens the highest number is that of graduates in the field of Health - 0.9 thousand or 25.2% of the total, followed by graduates in the field of Engineering and Engineering Trades - 0.8 thousand or 24.1%, and Business and Administration - 0.5 thousand or 13.4%. The number of teaching staff in the colleges is 2 314 persons, of whom 939 or 40.6% are on a full time employment. In comparison with the previous year teaching staff has increased by 14 or 1.5%. The structure of the teaching staff by academic ranking is as follows: professors - 173 or 7.5% of the total number, associate professors - 646 or 27.9%, assistants - 773 or 33.4%, senior lecturers and lecturers - 717 or 31.0%, research associates with teaching employment - 5 or 0.2%. The number of educational institutions, as well as the number of students as a whole decreased for the period 1999-2003. The number of children not enrolled (2002 compared to 1999) in school shows an increase of 9.4% for the country. For the South East region the indicator is 20.1% - the highest one and the lowest one is for North East region – 0.8%. Among districts, the decrease in number of children not enrolled in schools is mentioned for the districts of Kardzali, Silistra, Sofia-capital, Shumen and Sliven. The possibilities for access of Bulgarian households to information and communication technologies increase comparatively fast during the last years. The availability in the households (or some of their members) of technical devices assuring their culture needs and recreation gradually increases.

37 The availability in the households of TV – sets takes the first place – 92.7% or 2 710.0 thousands households possess this device. 82.3% of the households (respectively 88.7% of households with TV) dispose of colour TV. For comparison data from last census in 2001 show that 78.4% of households in the country possess colour TV. The availability of conventional phone takes the second place. 2 216.5 thousands or 75.9% of the households possess this device in 2003, which is by 3.4 points more than the respective relative share, calculated by the results from the last census. 1 271.9 thousands households (43.5%) watch cable TV in 2003 and their relative share increases by 6.1 points compared to 2001. The mobile phones became wide-spread during the last years. During the period 1.03.2001 – 1.07.2003 the number of households with mobile phones (908.7 thousands) increases more than 3 times and their relative share reaches 31.1% of all households. 198.4 thousands of the households (6.8%) use satellite dish connected to TV. 198.5 thousands households (6.8%) have a desktop computer and the availability of this device is considerably higher in towns (9.5%) than in villages (1.0%). The relative share of households that have access to Internet is 5.2% or 151.1 thousands households use the world wide web. Many more households in the towns (7.2%) have access to Internet in comparison with the households in the villages (0.8%). An significant part – 133.3 thousands of the households (88.3%), which have access to Internet use their stationary PC. This device is used by 2/3 of the households, which possess this kind of computer. Internet is accessed trough mobile phone by 24.1 thousands (15.9%) of the households, which have an access to Internet. The mobile phone is used for this purpose only by ¼ of the households (or some of their numbers), which have mobile phones accessing Internet. The number of population using PC increases – near 1 081.0 thousands persons (17.5%) use or have been used PC in different place of its use (at home, at place of work, at place of training and at other places). The urban population use PC more frequently (22.6%) than the rural population (5.0%). The distribution of the population that use a computer during the period April – June 2003 is following: at least once a day – 53.4%, at least once a week (but not every day) – 1/3 of the population. Near the half of the population using PC (48.9%) use the computer most frequently at place of work (other than home). Over 1/3 of the population, use the computer for different activities at home. 650.9 thousands persons (10.5% of the population) have been used Internet during the period July 2002 – June 2003. Every tenth person of the population (in 15 – 74 age group) enters the World Wide Web. Internet is used most frequently at place of work (other then home) for official duties – near 2/5 (39.5%) of the Internet users. At the same time a significant part (37.4% of the population), uses Internet at home.

Economy

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices for the country is 32355 million levs in 2002. The South West planning region has a share of 38.7% in that volume. In the region is situated the Sofia capital district, where the biggest part of the county’s economic and public activities and institutions take place. In the North West region is produced the lowest amount of GDP- 5.9%. In 2002 all other planning regions except the South West have GDP per capita less that the country’s average. In 2002 the GDP per capita in US dollars is 1978. The South West region has the GDP per capita with 45% more than the average per country.

38 GDP per capita during the period 1996-2002

3500 3000 1996 2500 1997 1998 2000 1999 1500 2000 1000 2001 500 2002 0 Total North- North North- South- South South- West Central East East Central West

The dynamics of the GDP per capita levels for the period 1996-2002 show a 65% growth of GDP per capita. By regions the growth is as follows: North West-72%, North Central –68%, North East – 59%, South East-61%, South Central – 46%, South West – 77%. In 2002 the shares of economic sectors keep their proportions from previous years. During the period 1996-2002 a tendency of increase in the share of services in gross value added (at current prices) is observed while the share of agriculture and forestry (except in 1997) has decreased. The share of industry was 30.7% in 1996 and slightly decreased to 29.1% in 2002. The services have composed more that 50% of gross value added (except in 1997) and for 2002 that number is 58.8%. Services by planning regions have the biggest share in gross value added for a particular region in the South West region and respectively the lowest share in North West region during the period 1996-2002. The important characteristic for planning regions is gross value added shares by regions and economic sectors, i.e. the region’s contribution to the GVA of the country by economic sectors. In the total GVA the share of South West region is highest for the period with a tendency of growth (38.7% in 2002). The share of South Central region was 21.1% for 2002, North East region – 13.9%, South East – 8.3% and North West – 5.9%. By economic sectors the picture is as follows: - Agriculture and forestry – South Central region – 25.2%, North East – 22%, North Central –19.5%, South West – 11.5%, South East – 11.0% and North West –10.8% - Industry – South West – 40.1%, South Central – 22.4%, North Central – 13.6%, North East – 10.5%, South East – 7.4%, North West – 6.0%. - Services – South West – 43.6%, South Central – 185, North East – 13.9%, North Central – 11.5%, South East - 8.1%, North West – 4.9%.

Direct foreign investments 5 in non financial enterprises as of 31.12. on cumulative basis (thousand US dollars) have registered an increase for the period 1997-2002.

5 Direct foreign investments are reported on cumulative basis as of 31.12. of the corresponding year as a sum of foreign direct investments in all nonfinancial enterprises. Foreign direct investment of investment enterprise comprises the shares of foreign investor in the enterprise’s equity, as well as mutual liabilities (loans) between foreign direct investor and investment enterprise.

39 The South West region accumulate the biggest share of direct foreign investments .

The savings of the population are 6 729.1 millions Levs as of 31.12.2003 and they increase nominally by 2.8 times in comparison with 1998. 59.5% of the growth of deposits is dues to the savings of population in foreign currency during the period 1998 – 2003. Since 1997 the correlation between deposits in Levs and in foreign currency changes to the advantage of foreign currency deposits. The relative share of the deposits in foreign currency in the total amount of the savings of population increases from 58.1 % in 1998 to 67.1 % in 2001. Their relative share decrease in 2002 and 2003 respectively to 64.1 and 59.0%. The real amount of savings of the population increases in comparison with the end of 1998. The total amount of deposits (in Levs and in foreign currency) as of 31.12.2003 increases 2 times in comparison with the end of 1998 and by 12.6% compared to the end of 2002. The deposits in Levs, in real expression (time, saving and demand deposits) increase by 28.8 % in comparison with the end of 2002.

The Ministry of Finance carries out its activities on state budget drawing and implementation in the municipalities part by dividing public service organization and provision into municipal and government mandates. Thus the state provides the population from both richer and poorer municipalities with equal access to a minimum level of public services. Funding is based on the state standards related to Government mandates financing through municipal budgets in the field of education, health care, social care and culture (dividing public service organization and provision into municipal and government mandates). The Ministry of Finance coordinates the process of municipal budget drawing up (Municipal budgets), implementation and finilization (Cash performance of municipal budgets), and revises, where necessary, budget relations between the municipalities and the state budget. It also prepares an initial and an agreed plan (Municipal Budgets) of budget relations between the municipalities and the state budget.The Ministry of Finance maintains a data base on government and municipal mandates by municipal budgets. The data base contains information on municipal budgets pursuant to the State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Act and the Local Self-Government and Local Administration Act within the calendar year. It makes forecasts on municipal non-tax proceeds on the basis of analyses. It collects, summarizes and analyzes information about the amount of municipalities' arrears with a view to observing the financial discipline. The Ministry of Finance develops reports and draft laws concerning municipal budgeting. Within the yearly budget procedure the Ministry of Finance, together with the National Association of Municipalities, develops a mechanism for assessment of municipalities' investment needs and allocation of the targeted subsidy for capital expenditures on the basis of the national investment strategy. Based on approved methods (mechanisms) the Ministry of Finance provides methodological instructions to the municipalities. It supports municipalities methodologically, so that the expenditures made comply with the law. The Ministry of Finance coordinates the policy and activities related to financial decentralisation. It participates in the development of legislative concepts, programs and drafts aimed at implementing the financial decentralization process. It coordinates and organizes consultations with the National Association of Municipalities in the Republic of Bulgaria in pursuance of the Municipal Budgets Act. For more details please, see the Ministry of Finance web page – minfin.bg The expenditure for grants, benefits and compensations in the consolidated state budget increases and its relative share in the total expenditure, from 6.4 % in 1998, reaches 14.0% in 2003. The expenditure for health insurance payments (38.3%) have the biggest relative share in the expenditure for grants, benefits and compensations in 2003 as the expenditure for medicines and other pharmaceutical products for home treatment are 35.9% of the health

40 insurance payments. The real increase of the expenditure for social transfers in 2003 is by 9.5 % in comparison with 2002 and 2.7 times – compared to1998. Information for paid out grants and benefits by categories (data source: National Social Security Institute ) for 2002 indicated that 6489 thousand levs were paid for birth grants, 99745 thous. levs were paid for monthly children’s allowances and for child care allowances were paid 52604 thous. levs. For certified incapacity benefits are paid 129433 thous.levs. The share of the mentioned payments by planning regions and districts to a large extent depend on the eligible population. The biggest share of payments (about 30%) is due to the South West region, where in 2002 live 26.8% of total population and 25.1% of children up to 17. The South Central region is the following one, than North East, South Central, South East and North West.

The Six Planning Regions in Bulgaria 6 1) North West region seems to be the most problematic region,with a number of areas requiring assistance. One of the reasons why Bulgaria insists on a second bridge over the Danube River be located on the Western part of the Bulgarian-Romanian border, is the expected positive impact this facility could have on growth and opportunities for the region. 2) North Central region is one of the regions, which is expected to generate significant development stimuli (three areas for growth and development, limited number of rural areas, opportunities for cross-border cooperation). 3) North East region also plays an important role in terms of development, but possesses problems, due to the high number of underdeveloped rural areas. 4) South East region has a strong emphasis on development stimuli, as well as important functions in terms of accomplishing relations at the Balkan and European level. 5) South Central region possesses development potentials but also considerable problems in several areas (large number of underdeveloped rural areas and declining industrial areas, especially in the Rhodopi area). 6) South West region Receives high development priorities due to the location of the capital Sofia as well as the possibilities for cross-border cooperation and development (Macedonia, Greece).

Districts with the highest GDP index are Sofia capital, Vratca, Burgas,, Stara Zagora, Varna and Gabrovo.In total 35.5% of the population live in these six districts as of March 2001. The following districts have the lowest GDP index: Yambol, Targovishte, Vidin, Sliven, Montana and Pazardjik. In general the 28 administrative districts in Bulgaria are relatively uniformly distributed in terms of overall Human Development Index ranking. This is primarily due to the compensating role of education and life expectancy, which “smooth out” the relatively large differences in the economic development of the districts.

6 UNDP- Human Development report 2002

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