2011

PAKISTAN RAIN/FLOOD 2011

Report on Flash floods, breaches in canals and damage to infrastructure & agriculture sectors in Sind Province

(The period under report is from Aug 08 to Sep 20)

September 24, 2011

PAKISTAN FLOOD 2011 Report 3.0 Table of Contents

1.0 Summary 1

2.0 Rainfall and Flash Floods 3

3.0 Crop situation 7

4.0 Damages to infrastructure 12

4.1 Badin 14

4.2 20

4.3 Umerkot 23

4.4 Tando Muhammad Khan 25

4.5 Thatta 28

4.6 Tando Allah Yar 29

4.7 Sanghar 30

4.8 Shaheed Benazir Abad 31

5.0 Results 32

6.0 Field Validation 33

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PAKISTAN FLOOD 2011 Report3.0

1.0 SUMMARY

This third report has been prepared in context of Letter of Agreement (LoA) signed between SUPARCO and FAO on 31 July 2011. It covers the period from August 08 to September 20, 2011. The previous two reports were for the period 08-23 August and 08-Aug to Sep 03, 2011. Based on rapid mapping & analysis and a quick ground surveys, damages to infrastructure, settlement, canal beaches and agriculture were identified in the initial reports.

The current monsoon is manifested by remarkably high rainfall in South Asia. In Pakistan, there were wide spread rains in the country. However the major thrust of rainfall was in province where cumulative rainfall varied from 400 mm to a little more than 1000 mm.

The maximum rainfall during the period was from 1-July 2011 to 20-September 2011. The rainfall of the order of 1044 mm was observed in , Sindh. Being located in the heart of , the rate of soil infiltration was very high. The rate of runoff water was therefore minimal. The other areas that received excessive rainfal Mirpur Khas 700 mm, Badin 623 mm, Shaheed Benazir Abad 613, Chhor (Umerkot) 468 mm, Dadu 419 mm and Padidan 405 mm.

The gradient of the coastal areas is almost horizontal and movement of water in the flooded area is taking place at a very slow pace. The result is that large rural areas, crops, and infrastructure are under water. For the first time after partition, the residents of some of the areas of Thar Desert and its upper reaches had to be evacuated by boats. A large number of farmers lost their livestock on way to safe places, on account of non availability of fodders and exertion. There is hardly a place in the severely affected area that is free of the hazard of standing water.

The maximum cumulative rain fall received at various other locations in the country including the capital Islamabad 914 mm, Lahore in Punjab 506 mm, Malam Jabba in KPK 572 mm, Rawalakot in AJK 617 mm rainfall and Barkhan in Balochistan at 232 mm. These areas generally remained free of any major damage of crops although some losses occurred to households and other infrastructures in these areas especially in KPK and Balochistan.

SUPARCO monitored the flooded areas using MODIS sensors 250 m resolution on daily basis and high resolution satellite images from SPOT 4 and 5. In addition three teams visited the flood affected districts for one

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PAKISTAN FLOOD 2011 Report 3.0 week, physically assessing crop damages. Another field visit would be essential during mid October to assess the rate of recession of water and status of sowing of the Rabi crops.

The cotton crop in the affected areas has been mostly damaged. Some of the crop that is still surviving may not withstand this for extended period of time. The first picking of cotton was carried prior to rains. The total loss to cotton in affected districts is estimated at 75 percent at about 2.0 million bales. The textile sector came under high speculations on the issue of cotton crop damages. The opinions generally remained divided, creating chaos in the sector. Sugarcane crop is so far secure to an extent from the ravages of flooding. It is advisable that Sindh Government assures commencement of sugar mill crushing season at an early date to avoid prolonged submergence of the cane.

The chilies crop is also very demanding on drainage needs. The chilies growing areas received the first heavy spell of rain on 11th August. The major part of the crop suffered from defoliation and senescence. Some of the crop was picked prior to rains and some also survived despite damages. The area damage is about 90 percent. As some of the crop picking was carried prior to rains, the production damage is about 50 percent. This damage has been worked at 77 thousand tons from a crop of 155 thousand tons.

The sugarcane crop has generally escaped damage. The rice crop was partially affected. Excessive damages are expected in /coastal areas where LBOD funneled large quantum of water from upstream areas prior to its ultimate delivery to sea. The rice crop generally escaped damage. However the submerged crop was damaged. About one third of the rice crop in these districts was damaged. The extent of damage is around 0.2 million tons.

The onion and tomato crops in the affected areas have been completely damaged. The chances of re-sowing a full scale crop are remote as water is still standing in the fields. However, 10-15 percent of the crop is expected to be re-sown. The water drainage may speed up during low tidal activity. The damage estimate of onion is 333 thousand tons from a crop of 660 thousand tons and tomato 70 thousand tons from a crop of 561 thousand tons.

Pakistan is likely to face acute shortage of onion, chilies, tomato and other vegetables in winter months. The farmers cultivating off season vegetables can benefit from this. Govt. of Pakistan would have to take

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PAKISTAN FLOOD 2011 Report 3.0 remedial measure to ensure steady supply of these minor crops of daily use.

There was a massive displacement of human being and livestock. A large number of valuable livestock of the displaced farmers, migrating to safe heavens died on way because of hunger and exertions.

2.0 Rainfall and Flash Floods

The monsoon rains in Pakistan during 2011 started with a normal tempo in July. In Punjab, the highest rainfall of the order of 438 mm was received in Lahore. About 14 stations in Punjab received rainfall higher than 200 mm, 08 stations more than 300 mm and 3 stations more than 400 mm rainfall. The details are as follows.

Punjab In Punjab, low level floods were observed in the rivers of Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej. India opened up water supplies during peak floods in the three eastern rivers of Ravi, Bayas and Sutlej. A high tide of 70000 cusecs passed through Sutlej on 16-17 August and about 82000 cusecs on 24 -August 2011. The losses of crops in Punjab were manageable.

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PAKISTAN FLOOD 2011 Report 3.0

Punjab: Rainfall from 1-July to 20-September, 2011 Rainfall No. of Met Met Stations range Stations Chakwal, Noor Pur Thal, Bahawalnagar, Mandi- More Bha-u-din, Joharabad, Kamra, than 20 Mianwali, Jhelum, Sialkot, Islamabad, Lahore, 200mm Okara, Murree, Mangla, Sargodha, Sahiwal, Guranwala, Faisalabad, Khanpur, Shorkot More 17 Noor Pur Thal, Bahawalnagar, Mandi-Bha-u-din, than Joharabad, Kamra, Mianwali, 300mm Jhelum, Sialkot, Islamabad, Lahore, Okara, Murree, Mangla, Sargodha, Sahiwal, Guranwala, Faisalabad, More 11 Kamra, Mianwali, Jhelum, Sialkot, Islamabad, than Lahore, Okara, Murree, Mangla, 400mm Sargodha, Sahiwal,

Sindh

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Sindh: Rainfall from 1-July to 20-September, 2011

Rainfall No. of Met Met Stations range Stations More than 11 Thatta, Hyderabad, Chhor, Padidan, Badin, 200mm Mithi, Nawab Shah, Mirpur Khas, Dadu, , Kitchi Masroor More than 08 Hyderabad, Padidan, Badin, Mithi, Nawab 300mm Shah, Mirpur Khas, Chhor, Dadu More than 08 Hyderabad, Padidan, Badin, Mithi, Nawab 400mm Shah, Mirpur Khas, Chhor, Dadu

Khyber PakhtunKwa (KPK)

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KPK: Rainfall from 1-July to 20-September, 2011 Rainfall range No. of Met Met Stations Stations More than 09 Saidu Sharif, Balakot, Parachinar, Risalpur, 200mm Malam Jaba, Kakul, Kohat, Dir, Peshawar More than 07 Balakot, Parachinar, Risalpur, Malam Jaba, 300mm Kakul, Kohat, Dir, More than 06 Balakot, Parachinar, Risalpur, Malam Jaba, 400mm Kakul, Kohat,

Balochistan

Balochistan: Rainfall from 1-July to 20-September, 2011

Rainfall range No of Met Stations Met Stations

More than 200mm 02 Kalat, Barkhan

More than 300mm NIL NIL

More than 400mm NIL NIL

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PAKISTAN FLOOD 2011 Report 3.0

Gilgit Baltistan/AJK

GB/AJK: Rainfall from 1-July to 20-September, 2011

No of Met Rainfall range Met Stations Stations More than 04 Gari Dopatta, Kotli, Rawalakot, 200mm Muzafarabad More than 04 Gari Dopatta, Kotli, Rawalakot, 300mm Muzafarabad More than 01 Gari Dopatta, Kotli, Rawalakot, 400mm Muzafarabad

3.0 Crop Situation Sugarcane, cotton, rice, maize, fodders, vegetables, fruits and spices are generally the major crops of Kharif season. The description of the important Kharif crops is as follows:

Cotton The cotton crop is predominantly sown in Punjab and Sindh provinces. The crop generally escaped damage in Punjab and the prospects of an excellent crop in this province are bright. In Sindh, large volumes of water would be standing up to end of September. The cotton crop has been mostly damaged in these areas. The farmers were able to carry out one out of five pickings prior to rains around 11th August 2011. This constituted 20 percent of the crop picked. About 5-10 percent of cotton crop escaped damage particularly in Kunri. The first phase in the demise

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of plants is an acute defoliation process. The plants loose leaves and photosynthetic activity comes to a naught. The plant ultimately dies. Despite that the bolls on the defoliated plants have matured. This makes additional 10 percent of the crop. The current loss is estimated at 65 percent. However this may increase to 75 percent as water is still standing in the root zone of the crop. The extent of damage is estimated at about 2.0 million bales. The district wise details are as follows:

Damage to Cotton Crop District Area Yield Factor Production 000 ha kg/ha Damage 000 bales T.M.Khan 8.1 1430 0.8 54.6 Badin 33.4 1508 0.8 237.2 Thata 7.2 1288 0.8 43.8 MirPurKhas 86.4 1152 0.8 468.3 T.A.Yar 16.6 1376 0.8 107.2 Umer Kot 45.4 1015 0.8 216.9 Sanghar 124.7 1319 0.8 773.9 Shaheed Benazir Abad 37.1 1060 0.8 185.2 Total 358.9 1236 0.8 2087.6

Given the devolution of Ministry of Food and Agriculture, there is no central platform to provide a firsthand, nonstop, direct supply of time series information on crops. This makes the policy making decisions in agriculture including textile, very complicated. In such circumstances, the textile sector has undergone high speculations, on the issue of the quantum of cotton available for marketing. The opinions generally remained divided, funneling confusion and stimulating price rise up.

Chilies Crop Chilies are mainly sown in Sindh, Punjab and Baluchistan. Hot dishes are generally not a constituent of KPK food basket. Therefore the cultivation of this crop did not pick up in this province. The chilies are sown both in Kharif and Rabi season in Sindh as winter in this province is generally frost free. In other regions, chilies are sown during summer when the ambient temperatures are generally hot to moderate. The area under chilies was 74.8 thousand ha and production 188.9 thousand tons during the years 2009-10.The share of provinces in chilies production is Sindh 91.5 percent, Punjab 4.7 percent and Baluchistan 3.3 percent . The share of Kharif chilies is two third and Rabi chilies are one third. Chilies generally require well drained fields. The crop is sensitive to continued

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PAKISTAN FLOOD 2011 Report 3.0 flooding. The incidence of fusarium spores in water can become lethal and threatening.

Damage to Autumn Crop of Chilies 2011-12 District Area Yield Factor Production 000 ha kg/ha Damage 000 tons T.M.Khan 0.20 2500 0.5 0.25 Badin 16.50 2145 0.5 17.70 Thata 6.70 2075 0.5 6.95 MirPurKhas 13.10 3298 0.5 21.60 T.A.Yar 0.90 1444 0.5 0.65 Umer Kot 14.80 3297 0.5 24.40 Sanghar 4.70 2511 0.5 5.90 Shaheed Benazir Abad 0.05 4000 0.5 0.10 Total 56.95 2724 0.5 77.57

Onion Onions are mainly sown in Baluchistan, Sindh, Punjab and KPK. The share of provinces in onion production is Baluchistan 38 percent, Sindh 33% and Punjab 17%. The onion production in Sindh and Baluchistan has picked up greatly because of frost free season at the time of growth and cool temperatures and low relative humidity at the time of harvest and marketing. The onion and tomato availability seasons are alike. The onions from Baluchistan are available during August–October; from Sindh during November- April. The crop is available from Punjab during May- July and KPK during June–August. The climatic factors are highly hostile for harvesting, storage and marketing on account of scorching heat and a very high relative humidity that is damaging for the commodity. The damages estimated are as follows:

Damage to Onion Crop in Sindh District Area Yield Factor Production 000 ha kg/ha Damage 000 tons T.M.Khan 1.40 10714 0.9 13.5 Badin 0.20 9500 0.9 1.7 Thata 2.20 10818 0.9 21.4 MirPurKhas 5.40 11667 0.9 56.7 T.A.Yar 3.10 13871 0.9 38.7 Umer Kot 2.50 11640 0.9 26.2 Sanghar 7.00 13586 0.9 85.6 Shaheed Benazir Abad 6.8 14603 0.9 89.4 Total 28.60 11650 0.9 333.2

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PAKISTAN FLOOD 2011 Report 3.0

Onion Crop 2011-12 Area Yield Production Province 000 ha Kg/ha 000 tons Punjab 35.9 7964 285.9 Sindh 16.56 14039.86 232.5 KPK 12.2 17008 207.5 Balochistan 34.3 18717 642.0 Pakistan 96.1 14234 1367.9

Tomato Tomatoes are grown all over Pakistan in all growing seasons. The area under tomato was 53.4 000 ha and production 561.89 thousand tons during the years 2009-10.The share of provinces in tomato production is Baluchistan 40%, KPK 29 % , Sindh 18% and Punjab 13%.

Tomato availability starts from Baluchistan at nearly the end of monsoon during August-October. The supplies during November – March mainly come from Sindh although some crop also from sub mountainous region of Dargai, Malakand in KPK and Katha Saghral in Khushab, Punjab. Given the level of damage, the consumer prices will push very high in coming months. The damage estimate is 70 thousand tons. The concept of a total crop in perishable commodities is pointless as these commodities have to be available afresh on daily basis. The statistics of the damages are as follows:

District Damage to Tomato Crop in Sindh Area Yield Factor Production 000 ha kg/ha Damage 000 tons T.M.Khan 0.19 8737 0.9 1.49 Badin 3.29 8982 0.9 26.60 Thata 4.37 9087 0.9 35.74 MirPurKhas 0.28 7179 0.9 1.81 T.A.Yar 0.14 7714 0.9 0.97 Umer Kot 0.18 7111 0.9 1.15 Sanghar 0.33 5879 0.9 1.75 Shaheed Benazir Abad 0.16 7063 0.9 1.02 Total 8.94 8765 0.9 70.52

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Tomato Crop 2011-12

Area Yield Production Province 000 ha Kg/ha 000 tons

5.58 12987 72.47 Punjab 4.304 7063 30.4 Sindh 16.5 9807 161.83 KPK 18.97 11948 226.67 Baluchistan 44.46 11052 491.37 Pakistan

Rice Crop Rice is an important component of food basket in the world including Pakistan. The aromatic basmati rice of Pakistan is a ceremonial dish in Pakistan and an important source of foreign exchange earnings. Coarse /IRRI rice is generally grown southern parts of the Indus plain including southern Punjab and right bank of Indus in Sindh. The induction of high hybrid seeds from China is increasing growingly in recent years.

Damage to Rice Crop in Sindh District Area Yield Factor Production 000 ha kg/ha Damage 000 tons T.M.Khan 4.5 3349 1 15.0

Badin 55.1 3081 1 169.8 18.0 2989 1 53.9 Thatta 0.3 2675 1 0.8 MirPurKhas 0.0 0 1 0.0 T.A.Yar

Umer Kot 0.0 0 1 0.0

Sanghar 3.6 3005 1 10.7

Shaheed Benazir Abad 0.8 3188 1 2.5 82.3 1 3070 252.7 Total

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The wide spread rains of monsoon have benefitted the crop. Some problem was observed in the coastal district of Badin where overflowing drainage system outburst the brook causing damage to crops, settlements and infrastructure. This led to displacement of a large number of rural populations.

Sugarcane Crop Sugarcane is a long gestation, hydrophilic, high input and management demanding, tropical crop. It has two sowing seasons i.e. autumn sowing in Sindh and spring sowing in Punjab and KPK. The crushing of cane usually starts during mid November and continues generally up to end February. There may be some exceptions may be on both extremities. The Sindh Sugar factory Control Ordinance 1950 decree, that sugar mills will be operational on 1st of October. Sindh Government should assure its implementation. A long time standing of the water would cause lodging and detrimental to the crop.

Maize Crop Maize is an important feed crop of Pakistan. Two crops are grown in the country viz. spring and autumn crop is mainly confined to central Punjab. It is sown by hybrid that is demanding in investment, farm management and inputs. This crop is therefore confined to irrigated areas. The autumn crop is mainly grown in barani areas that are devoid of irrigation. This crop is generally sown by synthetic seeds. The productivity of spring crop is more 8 tons per ha on average and autumn crop is about 2 tons per ha. The crop at this is good condition.

4.0 Damages to Infrastructure

Beside damages to standing crops, 6945 settlements compounding 0.66 million houses, 8000 Km national and provincial roads (Kachha, Pakka Roads), 127 Km of Railways tracks have been damaged. Several breaches/overflows in protective bunds of the canals have added to inundation in district Badin, Mirpur khas, UmerKot, Tando Muhammad Khan.

Change detection based on multi-temporal and multi- resolution satellite imagery was used to ascertain the location of breaches, their sizes, consequential damage to other infrastructure. Various base layers such as settlements, irrigation network, roads, railway lines and bunds were overlaid on to flood extent map.

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The summary of damages to infrastructure and agriculture is as tabulated below

SINDH FLOOD / RAIN 2011 DAMAGES SUMMARY

Damaged Roads (Km) Inundated Railway No. of Agriculture No. of District Kacha Area (Sq km) National Provincial (Km) Settlements (Sq km) Houses Pakka

Badin 3751 23 1708 2412 13.3 1277 3031 163908

Sanghar 2554 28 773 1493 9 1052 1674 57823

Mirpurkhas 1694 33 1559 1764 45 987 1303 200861

Shaheed Benazir Abad 850 25 434.6 527.6 38.9 465 640 81551

Umerkot 754 2.5 127 634 19.5 1543 651 55379

Thatta 621 0 133 373 0 627 176 22621

Tando Allahyar 462 0 106 290 0 286 334 53143

TM Khan 346 3 243 578 1.8 708 271 32636

Total 11032 114.5 5083.6 8071.6 127.5 6945 8080 667922

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4.1 Badin

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4.2 Mirpur Khas

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4.3 UmerKot

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4.4 Tando Muhammad Khan

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4.5 Thatta

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4.6 Tando Allah Yar

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4.7 Sanghar

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4.8 Shaheed Benazir Abad

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5.0 Results

23-Aug-11 03-Sep-11 20-Sep-11

Inundated Agri Area Inundated Agri Area Inundated Agri Area District Area (ha) (ha) Area (ha) (ha) Area (ha) (ha)

Badin 235,100 108,098 322,000 158,000 375100 303100

Mirpur Khas 92,000 56,600 96,000 58,000 169400 130300

T.M. Khan 17,000 11,300 28,000 17,400 34600 27100

Umer Kot 14,700 8,500 26,700 17,200 75400 65100

Thatta *NR *NR 14,000 11,700 62100 17600

Tando Allay Yar NR NR 15,800 10,600 46200 33400

Sanghar NR NR 15,600 8,300 255400 167400

Shaheed Benazir Abad NR NR NR NR 85000 64000

* Not Reported

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6.0 Field Survey

Two teams comprising 04 members visited eight severely affected districts of Sind h (Hyderabad, Mirpur khas, Umarkot, Badin, Tando Allahyar, Tando Muhammad Khan, Thatta and Shaheed Benazir Abad) for field validation. The survey team collected Ground Control Points (GCPs) of crop damage sites and marked survey route on SPOT 2.5m Satellite Image and made physical snaps of inundated crop and assessed the accuracy of classification results.

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09.11.2011 13:31 PAKISTAN FLOOD 2011 Report 3.0

Damaged Sugarcane crop in Tando Allah Yar District N 25.415000000° E 68.696200000°

Damaged cotton field in Tando Allah Yar District N 25.296200000° E 68.890400000°

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Picture 3841 of underwater Mango field crop in Hyderabad District PAKISTAN FLOOD 2011 Report 3.0

StagnantPictu waterre 3777 in cotton of underwater field Hyderabad Rice and Sugarcane District N field 25.635851960° in Tando Allahyar E 68.697541254° District

Stagnant water in cotton field Benazirabad District N 26.255500000° E 68.323800000°

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Underwater Sugar cane field in Tando Allah Yar District N 25.512600000° E 68.665800000°

Sugarcane field damaged due to rain water Tando Muhammad Khan District N 25.383100000° E 8.684000000°

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Stagnant rain water in Rice field Tando Allah yar District N 25.381500000° E 68.682800000°

Stagnant rain water Sugar cane field in Tando Allah yar District N 25.381600000° E 68.678700000°

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Water standing sugarcane fields in Mirpur Khas District N 25.391284693° E 68.643400604°

Sugarcane & rice fields in Badin District N 25.100100000 ° E 68.591000000°

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Standing Water in Rice Fields of Badin District N 24.930700000°E 68.713100000°

Standing Water Rice Fields in Badin District N 24.930700000° E 68.713300000°

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Cotton Fields in Badin District N 24.956600000° E 68.688400000°

Severely Damage Chili field in Mirpur Khas District N 25.189200000° E 69.100500000°

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Severely Damage Chili field in Mirpur Khas District N 25.189300000° E 69.100300000°

Severely damaged Picture cotton 170 field Cattle in Mirpurdied due Khas to heavy District Rain N n25.292100000° Mirpur Khas District E 69.059500000°

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Logging Banana farm due to heavy Rain n Mirpur Khas District N 25.386900000° E 69.023700000°

Logging Banana farm due to heavy Rain n Mirpur Khas District N 25.391700000° E 69.023300000°

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Cotton damage due to heavy Rain in Mirpur Khas District N 25.474500000° E 69.011500000°

Water stagnant in Cotton field Umer Kot District N 25.448800000° E 69.453000000°

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Stagnant water in cotton field Umer Kot District N 25.448900000° E 69.453200000°

Rain water destroying cotton field in Umer Kot District N 25.453700000° E 69.411200000°

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Rain water destroying cotton field in Umer Kot District N 25.453700000° E 69.411200000°

Rain water in Sugarcane field Badin District N 25.100200000° E 68.591000000°

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