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From Rhetoric to Reality: Reframing U.S. Turkey Policy Ambassadors Morton I National Security Program Foreign Policy Project From Rhetoric to Reality: Reframing U.S. Turkey Policy Ambassadors Morton I. Abramowitz and Eric S. Edelman, Co-Chairs October 2013 ABOUT BPC Founded in 2007 by former Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker, Tom Daschle, Bob Dole and George Mitchell, the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) is a non-profit organization that drives principled solutions through rigorous analysis, reasoned negotiation and respectful dialogue. With projects in multiple issue areas, BPC combines politically balanced policymaking with strong, proactive advocacy and outreach. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The conclusions and insights contained in this report were shaped, in part, by a range of conversations that initiative and staff members had with government officials, politicians, journalists, and activists in Turkey. We are indebted to them for their time and thoughtful commentary. We would like to thank former BPC Foreign Policy Project staff members Michael Makovsky and Jonathan Ruhe for their invaluable assistance in all phases of this report. We also thank BPC interns Jarrod Bouchard, Anders Rosen, Michael Hoopes, Brendan Reardon, and Harry Parkhouse for their contributions. Finally, we gratefully acknowledge the generous support of the Stuart Family Foundation. DISCLAIMER This report is a product of BPC’s Foreign Policy Project. The findings expressed herein are those solely of the Foreign Policy Project and the Turkey Initiative, though no member may be satisfied with every formulation in the report. The report does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of BPC, its founders, or its board of directors. From Rhetoric to Reality: Reframing U.S. Turkey Policy 1 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Executive Summary ............5 Chapter 4: Evolution of Turkish Turkey’s Current Situation ......................6 Foreign Policy .......................33 Foreign Policy ....................................6 AKP Foreign Policy Changes ....................33 Domestic Policy ..................................7 Zero Problems: 2007–2011 .........................33 Implications for U.S. Policy .....................8 Sectarian Drift: 2011–Present .......................34 Recommendations ............................9 Areas of U.S. Concern ........................36 Syria ..........................................36 Chapter 2: Where Do U.S-Turkish Iraq ...........................................39 Relations Stand? .....................15 Iran ...........................................40 Israel .........................................42 History and Significance of U.S-Turkey Relations .....15 Current Status of the Relationship ................16 Chapter 5: Recommendations ............45 Chapter 3: Turkey’s Domestic Reframing U.S. Policy ........................46 Political Situation ....................19 Focus on Turkey’s Domestic Stability and Democratic Process ..............................46 Recent Developments .........................19 Replace Rhetoric with Open and Honest Dialogue ........47 The AKP’s Rising Majoritarianism ....................19 Areas for Cooperation ........................49 Taksim Protests and Aftermath ......................20 Support Turkey’s Development ......................49 Kurdish Peace Process ............................21 Set Realistic Foreign Policy Expectations ...............51 Prosecution of Military and Critics ....................22 Economy .......................................23 Appendix: Glossary ...................55 Erdogan’s Political Future ..........................25 Areas of U.S. Concern ........................27 Endnotes ...........................63 Treatment of Minorities and Opposition ................27 Press Freedom ..................................29 Stalled EU Accession .............................30 Constitutional Reforms ............................31 National Security Program Foreign Policy Project From Rhetoric to Reality: Reframing U.S. Turkey Policy 3 Foreign Policy Project TURKEY INITIATIVE CO-CHAIRS Ambassador Morton Abramowitz Ambassador Eric Edelman Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey TURKEY INITIATIVE MEMBERS Henri Barkey John Hannah Aaron Lobel Bernard L. and Bertha F. Cohen Former Assistant for National Security Founder and President, America Professor of Internal Relations, Lehigh Affairs to the Vice President Abroad Media University Ed Husain Michael Makovsky Svante Cornell Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Chief Executive Officer, JINSA Research Director, Central Asia- Studies, Council on Foreign Relations Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Admiral (ret.) Gregory Johnson Studies Program Former Commander of U.S. Naval Ambassador Paula Dobriansky Forces, Europe; Senior Advisor, Former Under Secretary of State for Bipartisan Policy Center Global Affairs; Senior Fellow, Bipartisan David Kramer Policy Center Executive Director, Freedom House FOREIGN POLICY PROJECT STAFF Blaise Misztal Jessica Michek Acting Director Research Assistant Ashton Kunkle Program Assistant National Security Program Foreign Policy Project From Rhetoric to Reality: Reframing U.S. Turkey Policy 5 Chapter 1: Executive Summary Since its genesis during the Cold War, the U.S.-Turkey region’s tumult, it does not stand apart. Due to its long relationship has significantly evolved. Once in continuing border with Syria, government decisions by Ankara, and need of foreign aid for development and to fend off Soviet an already massive and growing refugee problem, Turkey encroachment, Turkey has risen to become the world’s has not been immune from the turbulence spreading 17th-largest economy, a developing democracy, and a through its neighborhood. This Syrian conflict, and the strong military ally and NATO member. AKP’s handling of it, has significantly divided the country and colored its approach to the rest of the region. The foreign policies of the United States and Turkey have recently focused on the Middle East, and each Indeed, Turkey’s response to Syria forced a shift to has suffered serious setbacks. The region-wide political sectarianism in the rest of Turkey’s foreign policy, an upheaval, which began more than two years ago, has approach that has only further diminished its influence in given both countries an important interest in containing the region. And, with three elections—local, presidential, and minimizing the spreading instability and chaos. and parliamentary—looming in the next 18 months, Today, to secure those interests, the United States and Turkey faces growing political unrest, including among Turkey need a strong, cooperative partnership. But minorities badly affected by the Syrian civil war, and challenges to such a partnership have steadily mounted. a faltering economy at home. Yet, the government’s response to these challenges thus far does not inspire Over the past decade, the government of the Justice and confidence; AKP officials have chosen authoritarianism Development Party (AKP) has impressively expanded and sectarianism over compromise and cooperation trade and investment in regional economies while at almost every turn. In short, at precisely the time that aspiring to replace the West as the major influence in the United States would most benefit from a strong and the Middle East. It has sought alliances with regimes cooperative Turkey, Turkey’s ability to fill that role has shunned by the international community, such as Iran, diminished. Meanwhile, the United States struggles, not Syria, and Hamas; pursued sectarian policies supporting too successfully, to articulate a coherent policy toward the Muslim Brotherhood across the region; given both Turkey and the broader region. little support for important U.S. regional efforts, such as preventing a nuclear Iran; and broke off relations The United States needs to coolly examine these with America’s other most important Middle Eastern changing dynamics and adjust how it deals with Turkey. ally: Israel. Washington, for its part, has hardly been This task force—part of the Foreign Policy Project at a gracious partner, most recently misleading Turkey the Bipartisan Policy Center—and report began as an over its intentions in Syria, contributing to disastrous examination of how Turkey was using its influence in consequences for that country. Yet the reality of this the Middle East and how both countries could agree on underperforming relationship has been obscured by the and pursue shared objectives in the region. However, effusive rhetoric American and Turkish officials alike the events of the past year—the Taksim Square protests deploy in describing their ties. in Turkey, the Turkish government’s incomplete peace process with its Kurdish minority, Turkey’s deepening Although Turkey is politically and economically stronger sectarian schisms, the military ouster of Mohamed and more dynamic than those countries caught up in the Morsi in Egypt, and the deepening disaster in Syria and 6 Chapter 1: Executive Summary Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons, as well as countries—seeking to establish itself as a regional the subsequent U.S.-Russian deal—have led the task power. Increasingly, Turkey’s policies began to diverge force to conclude that, after a decade of focusing largely from those of the United States, even when the two on Turkey’s role in the region, American policymakers partners claimed to share the same goals. But, a wave should focus more on the stability of Turkey’s political of political upheaval swept through the region, seriously institutions, the freedom
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