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Pittsburgh Economic Quarterly University Center for Social and Urban Research . December 2011 . University of Pittsburgh December 2011 Pittsburgh Economic Quarterly University Center for Social and Urban Research Inside This Issue Spring 2012 Urban and Regional Brown Bag Foreclosure, Vacancy and Crime Seminar Series . 5 By Lin Cui Updated Population here are many social problems arising from foreclosure . locations of foreclosure, vacancy and crime incidents . Migration Report On individual levels, families undergoing foreclosure The link between foreclosure and crime is an example Available . 7 T can lose accumulated home equity and access to future of the Broken Window theory . The problem starts when a stable housing; on social levels, foreclosure can have impli- homeowner facing foreclosure takes less care of the house . cations for surrounding neighborhoods and larger commu- While the property can still be occupied, it may already nities . One potential impact of increased foreclosures in a show visible signs of disrepair . It signals to potential crimi- community is crime . nals a lower level of surveillance in the nearby area and While the relationship between foreclosures and crime thus increases their incentive to commit crimes . Later, if the has received widespread attention in the news media, to property becomes vacant, the lack of surveillance is more date there has been little careful empirical work on this apparent and those neglected and abandoned buildings can subject . In this article, I examine the impact of residential offer criminals places to gather and conduct their activities . foreclosures and vacancies on violent and property crime The above scenarios suggest that both foreclosure and in the city of Pittsburgh . The model uses a difference-in- vacancy are positively associated with crime rates, with differences design to test the relationship between foreclo- vacancy having possibly a stronger impact . sures and crime, with data from the Pittsburgh Neighborhood The results from this work find that violent crime rates and Community Information System (PNCIS) used . The data are more than 15 percent higher in areas within 250 feet of are distinguished by an unusually fine level of geographic foreclosed and vacant properties compared to areas slightly precision, which enable me to exploit the exact timing and ... continued on page 2 Transit and Commuting Patterns in Southwestern Pennsylvania By Christopher Briem and Sabina Deitrick hanges in the Pittsburgh region have created new and the MSA’s population lived in Allegheny County . By 2010, Cdifferent opportunities for thinking about transit and that figure fell to 52 percent, as other parts of the rest of the commuting . The beginning of the 21st century shows a differ- region have grown . The continuing increase in the number ent geography of the location of people and jobs that make of workers working in Allegheny County, but residing else- transit planning for these changes imperative for the region . where, has had a direct impact on the commuting patterns Transit and commuting patterns within the Pittsburgh in the region . metropolitan region and the greater Southwestern Also contributing to the changes in commute patterns Pennsylvania area continue to be impacted by flows of involves what is known as “reverse commuting,” gener- residential migration away from the region’s core . While ally defined as residents who reside in or near an urban Allegheny County has retained a significant proportion of the core commuting to jobs in nearby suburbs . Over recent jobs located in the Pittsburgh region, the same is not true of decades, increasing numbers of workers commuted from the residential population . their residence in Allegheny County to jobs in counties in In 1969, an estimated 65 percent of jobs in the 7-county the rest of the region . Pittsburgh Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) were located In 2006 - 2008, the largest inter-county commuting flows in Allegheny County, and by 2009, that share of the region’s within Southwestern Pennsylvania were from Westmoreland, jobs dropped only slightly, to 62 percent . Over that same Washington, Beaver, and Butler counties, respectively, into period, however, Allegheny County’s share of the region’s Allegheny County (see Table 1), with over 44,000 residents of population showed a larger decline . In 1969, 58 percent of Westmoreland County alone commuting to jobs in Allegheny ... continued on page 4 1 . Pittsburgh Economic Quarterly . ... continued from page 1 Figure 1. Foreclosure Process farther away . Results indicate that foreclosure without sheriff auction, and 262 days for those quarterly crime counts in the same treatment alone does not have significant effects on experiencing vacancy . The median length of area in different quarters are labeled according crime, but foreclosure properties that become vacancy is 231 days . to the specific timing of foreclosure filing and vacant do . Effects on property crime are similar, With information on both foreclosure filing vacancy of that property . To better demon- but are less precisely estimated . and foreclosure-led vacancy, this study is the strate the impact on spatial patterns of crime, A typical foreclosure case in Pennsylvania first to separate the impact of foreclosure from I proceed by adding control areas outside the consists of multiple stages: foreclosure filing, the impact of vacancy during the foreclosure treatment rings, beyond the 250 feet mark (to 353 sheriff sale, and sale to a new permanent owner process . The mechanisms through which the feet) . Because the number of crimes happened (an REO – or real-estate owned sale) . Figure two impact neighborhood crime rates are within an area depends on the size of that area, I provides an illustration of the two possible similar, but the effects can be different in scale . the treatment and control areas of the fore- outcomes following foreclosure filing . In this More importantly, this study is also the first to closed and/or vacant properties are equal in study, 57 percent of the foreclosure filings result exploit both inter-temporal and cross-sectional size . in a property sale to another permanent owner variance in foreclosure and foreclosure-led Figure 2 provides an illustration of the treat- before sheriff sale, while 43 percent experience vacancy, and their effects on crime . Data on ment and control areas surrounding a fore- a period of vacancy until they are finally resold . exact locations of foreclosure filing, vacancy, closed property . Note that if the effect on crime To differentiate foreclosure per se from and crime incidents are used to exploit varia- is a decreasing function of its distance to the foreclosure-led vacancy, four stages of the tions of crime within small, relatively homog- foreclosure site, the control areas will also be foreclosure process are defined: a pre-fore- enous areas surrounding the foreclosed and/or treated, though to a lesser extent . Nevertheless, closure stage that takes place before the date of vacant properties . The exact timing of foreclo- the differences in crime rates between treat- foreclosure filing, a foreclosure stage between sure filing and vacancy allows me to confirm the ment and control areas will underestimate the the date of filing and the date of sheriff sale, a absence of substantive preexisting differences actual difference, making my results a lower vacancy stage, and a reoccupation stage that in crime rate of treatment and control areas . bound of the actual effect . takes place after the REO sale date . Due to the The treatment group is defined as the number Figure 3 shows the violent and property crime judicial nature of foreclosure in Pittsburgh, the of crimes in areas within 250 feet of foreclosed trends in both treatment and control areas after whole process typically takes one to two years properties . To get reasonable counts of each taking off the quarterly fixed effects . There is to complete . As shown in Figure I, the median crime type, I group the number crime inci- evidence that the control areas experience length of foreclosure stage is 240 days for those dents by quarter . For each foreclosed property, increases in crime rates in vacancy quarters, 2 . Pittsburgh Economic Quarterly . December 2011 . Figure 2. Treatment and the same time, while foreclosure alone seems between 250 and 353 feet away . Control Areas Surrounding to have little effect . Vacancy has a sizable Because this research uses the exact timing a Foreclosed Property impact on violent crimes and the effect persists and location of foreclosure, vacancy and crime after the property is reoccupied . Those results by comparing crime rates in geographically are consistent with the graphical evidence in small and homogenous areas at different stages Figure 3 . For property crimes, vacancy still has of foreclosure, available with the PNCIS, these some impact but the coefficients are no long results provide a significant improvement upon significant . Possibly it is due to the fact that the existing literature that attempts to iden- those coded as property crimes are only the tify the impact of foreclosure and vacancy on non-violent ones . crime with cross-sectional design or analysis I further explore the impact of different at aggregate levels . lengths of vacancy on violent crime rates . The In addition, this paper provides the first reason is twofold: first, to rule out the possibility evidence on the impact of vacancy length that the main results are driven by composi- on crime and concludes that longer terms of tional effects;
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