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2 - 2007 Background: Mona Sahlin - Swedish Social Democrats Elect a Woman Leader

By Roger Hällhag and Uwe Optenhögel∗

Elected undisputed on 17 March 2007, Mona Sahlin has become the first woman leader of the Swedish social democratic party (SAP) since its foundation in 1889. She takes over a party with a long tradition and one of the most successful parties in Europe She also is the first leader for a century to be appointed while the party is in opposition. All previous leaders (Branting, Hansson, Erlander, Palme, Carlsson, Persson) have been Prime Ministers - not exactly an easy heritage for Mrs. Sahlin.

The state of affairs after the election people. The |New Moderates| could only defeat in September 2006 win the election through a decisive move Mona Sahlin was selected after a search for to the centre ground and PM Fredrik a candidate inspiring sympathy for her Reinfeldt proudly recognises this. personality, confidence in her competence and an open, consultative leadership style. (2). The electoral defeat is largely The long half-year interregnum since attributed to the personality of Göran Persson announced his plan to resign on Persson, not his policies. A domineering election night has only seen half-hearted style, loosing his popular touch and policy discussions. Neither Mona Sahlin looking tired, made many enough opt for nor any other ‘prospect’ for the leadership the fresh and young political alternative. was required or even asked by the party to Therefore many believe that a new face present any policy ideas or priorities. Such and a wrapping is enough to restore social a peculiar situation is based on: democratic power. (1). does not see itself as defeated ideologically or over policies. Most in the party leadership and Persson Instead the centre-right Alliance could only himself have in practice stuck to such win a majority by promising to retain the limited interpretations of the defeat, fundamentals of the social democratic playing down the need to review policies Swedish Model of publicly financed in an open debate. Nor did Persson loosen welfare, as well as job security for most his grip on the party apparatus. Some

∗ Roger Hällhag is a political analyst and consultant with background in international affairs and social democracy. Dr. Uwe Optenhögel is director of the Stockholm office of the FES for the Nordic Countries.

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policy debate has existed, but forward- enormous political asset, but also a looking party processes to cater for it has liability. not been organised while in waiting. All candidates were extremely careful not The result has become a strong focus on to declare any candidacy or even open personalities and finding a nice face. The willingness to stand for the leadership. urge for a woman has been overwhelming Self-doubt was preferred to self- both, for the comprehensible reasons and confidence! Code and tactics required a for blocking some male candidates. The very humble approach. Instead the election consensus culture is very strong in committee solicited nominations from the Swedish society and even more in the party for their further consideration, which party. Displaying unity is cherished, should distil one candidate. However, whereas open votes, negative criticism and Mona was the only candidate with broad defining internal differences are normally acceptance not saying ‘no thanks’. sanctioned negatively. From a democratic point of view, the The candidates for party leadership leadership selection process has left a lot to Mona Sahlin was not the preferred nice desire. In form it has been very open and face. The over-whelming favourite was participative, but at the same time it has Mona’s close friend Margot Wallström, at lacked political substance. Therefore, little present Vice-President of the European ground is laid for what a professed Commission. Her early ‘no thanks’, saying ‘renewal’ of the party should contain in that she was not up to the task in spite of terms of priority issues and understanding her obvious competence and achievements, of conflicting interests and objectives. just made her even more popular and fit for the job. A personal dispute with Persson, Mona’s background: an eventful political including his hesitation to retain her for a career second period in the Commission, was no - Grown up in a family active in the liability. Wallström won much sympathy, party. Leading positions in various remarkably and importantly in spite of her youth organisations, including EU-enthusiasm, which is not happily social democratic youth – SSU. shared by the Swedish people and all social democrats. - Member of parliament at 25, minister of labour at 33 and Other preferred candidates excusing groomed by then PM Ingvar themselves were Carin Jämtin, former Carlsson as possible successor Minister for International Development during a year of deep economic Cooperation and now leader of the crisis and labour market disputes. opposition in Stockholm city; and Wanja Secretary General of the party Lundby Wedin, president of the Swedish 1992-1994 while in opposition. The Confederation, LO. 1994 election was won, but reputation for being disorganised Mona (as she is called by everybody) only became rooted in the party. coming next reflects lingering doubts. Nevertheless she is the most well-known - Mona Sahlin became Deputy Prime social democrat, after Persson, with Minister and Minister for Gender outstanding and broad experience. Equality and looked even more as Everybody, even those with faint political Carlsson’s successors. He interests, knows her and people tend to announced resignation in August have an opinion on her. She generates 1995, less than a year after winning strong feelings and gets attention. She the election and in the middle of sticks out in the media. That is of course an 2 N ORDIC C OUNTRIES March 2007

very tough measures to restore the experience that ongoing reforms and public finances. change can be in harmony with tradition and values. - At that time Mona was accepted, even though grudgingly by party Mona is pushing ahead in this perception and unions, as new leader and of renewal, stressing other elements with presented her candidature, nobody the code words of feminism and the fight willing or likely to stand against against discrimination in all senses (ethnic, her. In the autumn Mona was sexual orientation, as well as social and accused of misusing a government gender), ability for self-criticism, credit card to pay for minor combining rights with duties, praising personal expenses, not even illegal individual freedom ( in contrast to ‘the if having it deducted later (“the Right’s limited concept of freedom of Toblerone affair”). Messy personal choice’). She wants social democrats to no finances (paying bills late, longer be the ‘defenders of systems’ but including many parking tickets and defenders of individuals – a remarkable traffic fines) were turned public. As swing in a party that has traditionally a result very few stood up for her in stressed collective values and convictions the party. At the same time political as the organizing principle of Swedish misgivings about painful welfare society. She also stresses the task of cutbacks due to the economic crisis renewal of the party itself and a need to contributed to a decline in support, start listening to ‘the caring critics’. even if that was a collective responsibility by party leadership. In her much awaited congress speech Mrs. Mona has just been more honest Sahlin solidly reconfirmed her priorities: about hard measures than most. jobs and labour market, environment (referring to Persson’s vision of a ‘Green - Under that pressure Mrs. Sahlin Welfare State’), welfare as keeping resigned from government, but not together and a more active the party posts, and became a Sweden in Europe and the World. freelance ‘entrepreneur’. Göran Persson was elected leader of the Demonstrating her excellence as party and PM in March 1996. communicator she skilfully referred to tradition, hardly referring to her - After the elections in 1998 Persson predecessor, but framing her whole speech brought her back to government as on a visionary message ‘to the youth’ by deputy minister and over the years in 1984. Mona closed with a she held several portfolios with recording of an anti-racist speech by him, increasing weight. popularised and put to music by Latin Kings – a suburban rap group. Mona’s message: jobs, welfare, environment and peace Strategic allies: The unions Mona Sahlin is consistently reaffirming the Mrs. Sahlin confirmed the fundamental need for constant ‘renewal’ of social importance of the collective agreements democratic policies, in order to stay on top governing the labour market, it’s of change. That renewal has often been connection with a strong trade union seen with much suspicion from those movement and – rhetorically and emphasising traditional social democratic ideologically important – the link between values and policies. However, Persson work and work conditions on one hand, governments’ success in saving the welfare and individual freedom on the other hand. system by reshaping its finances and some Those feeling most vulnerable to the of its structures is a powerful example of message of renewal are the unions for local 3 N ORDIC C OUNTRIES March 2007

government employees. ‘Kommunal’ is the largest trade union, as local governments The lack of change in the party’s are the largest employers everywhere, governing bodies might be ambivalent for providing schools, health care, child and Mona Sahlin, who promised ‘change in elderly care and many other public services leadership, not just the leader’. It could and administration. help depersonalise the discussion about the future of the party, forming the basis for a They are in a defensive battle against both strong yet open leadership of shared outsourcing and cutbacks of tax-financed responsibility based on the wide public services. This sector has a large experience of several leading lights. proportion of women on relatively low- However, if former ministers and other paid jobs with almost no career prospects. local government administrators are By signalling a joint party-union battle unwilling to let their own practice being against the government over the labour questioned, real policy development might market, stressing the importance of the yet again be postponed. Mona might find public sector’s role in the growing service herself in a rather heavy straightjacket. economy and backing down from supporting tax reductions for private Even if most of the leadership understands demand and supply of household services the dangers, the good opinion polls for the Mona reached out. party can be poisonously comforting. Nothing is as easy as postponing difficult Sahlin gets steadfast support from Wanja political choices. Lundby Wedin, who is loyal to her As for the party itself, Mona made several member’s interests but in attitude an open- statements which where both encouraging minded renovator, not a defensive and demanding: traditionalist. Therefore Mona can start - We want to have an open, exciting with a period of grace with unions. Her post-election debate – the report of first public act, minutes after her election, the analysis committee (which has was to attend a joint demonstration with been suspected of intentions to unions in defence of collective agreements downplay uncomfortable results) – highly symbolic even if the party never will be the starting point, not the has wavered on that issue. SAP does not endpoint. want to be “like any continental socialist - We need new working groups and talk shop party” by severing ties with networks. labour unions. - Open up to society, new knowledge and other groups of people! The party No other leadership changes of any - Let people participate not out of significance took place. For this duty, but out of desire, in ways extraordinary congress all other members which fit with their lives! of the top leadership refused calls for their resignation, insisting that they were elected Discussion at this congress should already in late 2005 for a four year period. Most suggest the new style. Advisory only, they importantly, , a former were supposed to start a wide internal Minister of Culture imposed by Persson as debate about the politics and policies for Secretary General, did stay on. A reformed the future. These might be the signals of a eurosceptic and leftist, she became seen as revitalised internal democracy that the a useful balancing ideological voice party is yearning for. However, nothing of against government pragmatism in what was said is really new, so the answer Persson’s time. When nominated, Mona lies in the practical application of Mona’s made immediately clear that she prefers suggestions. Ulvskog to stay. 4 N ORDIC C OUNTRIES March 2007

With her strong congress performance between industrial and environmental Mona Sahlin has certainly not overcome interests that particularly the Greens care all scepticism in the party. Traditionalists – less about. for example in Skåne where the party is most threatened from the right and extreme In reaching out to Social Democrats the right – are ready to soon again pick up Moderates pretend to be the safer their complaints if policies are not to their alternative for industrial workers by liking and if they feel not listened to. questioning the notion of Sweden heading On the other hand, her move to bring first in industrial restructuring. Sahlin - as Margot Wallström (Sweden’s popular EU Göran Persson before - are vehemently Commissioner) back into the party is arguing for the industrial benefits of being genuinely popular. Together with the also the first to produce and profit from popular former foreign minister Jan environmentally friendly technologies. Eliasson, Mrs. Wallström shall be foreign policy faces to counterbalance Sweden’s On European policy, the social democrats internationally know foreign minister Carl are the more divided and therefore troubled Bildt. At the same time Sahlin intelligently party. However, the key to overcoming left compensates for her own lack of (and green) scepticism to even using the experience in foreign affairs and underlines EU as a political instrument might not lay the necessity of a more proactive Swedish in cooperation with the liberal right, but in approach in Europe and the world. differentiating oneself from the government. Public Perceptions and Reactions The massive attention from media at the Mona Sahlin will certainly be hard on the congress, as well as measured government government when it comes to ideological comments, confirmed that all Swedish issues. Nevertheless, she signals a politics still relate to Social Democracy. readiness to find broad agreements and her willingness to review positions should PM Reinfeldt has announced that he will leave room for such. She provocatively tour work places in the public sector in offers Reinfeldt a deal supporting his order to talk to women (“not their male increased subsidies for higher earners’ bosses”) about their jobs and prospects. (fathers’) parental leave against ditching Deputy PM Maud Olofsson stressed that local government grants to stay-at-home SAP is almost last in getting a women parents (mothers) favoured by Christian leader, welcoming but downplaying the Democrats. fact. The government has also kept a line of downplaying Mona Sahlin by However, as Mona now has to prove questioning results of hers, “good at herself as the opposition leader and the talking but little else”. In his first government still has time to hope for comments Reinfeldt invited her for a broad reform results favouring them, agreements agreement with Social Democracy on the on any importance are unlikely to occur in environment and European policies, which the short run. is a proposition that Mona will need to consider very carefully. A more important factor might be reactions of public opinion regarding the way On environment, this would be of help to politics is presented. If the floating middle the government which has tried to be in the class voters seem to favour less driving seat fighting climate change. Social confrontation, that might temperate both Democrats are leading public opinion on government and opposition positions. On that issue. They are considered more the other hand, if Sweden Democrats (a credible not least because they are familiar right-wing populist party) continues to with dilemmas of the right balance grow, the rational for Social Democrats 5 N ORDIC C OUNTRIES March 2007

might be to stay more traditionalists, while still hammering an anti-racist message.

Media has given Mona a fairly positive and kind reception. Questions are correctly put about what her renewed policies will really be about. For now her signalling of priorities seems to be good and credible enough. Old affairs do not seem to be sufficiently promising to be recycled for the moment. However, if she again proves to be careless, the media might easily come back to haunt her. and the media are not exactly very tolerant in this respect, even if Mona has acquired more Teflon than many other public figures.

To sum it up: Sweden – media, public opinion, her party, unions – is greeting Mona Sahlin with positive expectations and the benefit of doubt. The government is apprehensive of her.

Mona will still have a battle to establish herself in her new role, winning the sceptics in a more profound way. For Göran Persson it took five years to reach his peak. Mona does not have that time. She should be at the top of a party in full swing in two years time, being in a position to announce a government alternative for elections in September 2010 – defining relations with Left and Greens in a credible way.

Party polls are favourable at the moment. Two thirds of Swedes even assume that Social Democrats have the best chance to win next time. But that is far off. And maybe another poll is more sobering correct: 40% believes that social democrats have a better chance with Mona, 24% that the chance has shrunk and 30% say that she does not make a difference.

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