Northern Freight & Logistics Report Technical Appendices One Agenda. One Economy. One North. Northern Freight & Logistics Report: Technical Appendices | 1 Contents Appendix E. Supporting Policy and Commercial Context 111 E.1 Introduction 111 1 Technical Appendices 5 E.2 Port Sector 112 E.3 Rail Freight Sector 115 1.1 Overview 5 E.4 Developing a Market for Distribution Centre Developers 118 1.2 Structure of Appendices 5 E.5 Developing a Market for Distribution Centre Occupiers 128 Appendix A. Methodologies 7 E.6 Modelling Competition between Distribution Centre Locations 140 A.1 Establishing the Baseline 7 E.7 Urban Freight Issues and Objectives 150 A.2 Stakeholder Engagement 7 A.3 Scenario Development 10 A.4 Freight Modelling 20 A.5 Appraisal 35 Appendix B. Scenario Testing 47 B.1 Introduction 47 B.2 Scenario Modelling 47 B.3 Road and Rail Freight Kilometres 47 B.4 Transport Network Impact 51 B.5 Port Impacts 59 B.6 User Costs 62 B.7 Non-User Costs 64 B.8 Environment 65 B.9 Summary 79 Appendix C. Appraisal of Preferred Recommendations 81 C.1 Identification of the Preferred Recommendations – a discussion of results from the tested scenarios 81 C.2 Preferred Recommendations 82 C.3 Appraisal Results 82 C.4 High Growth Scenario Sensitivity Test 92 Appendix D. Recommendations Details 97 D.1 Full Recommended Measures List 97 D.2 Rail Freight Path Proposals 102 D.3 Anticipated Private Sector Response: Multimodal Distribution Parks 102 D.4 Application of Stakeholder Consultation in Recommendation Development 105 2 | Northern Freight & Logistics Report: Technical Appendices | 3 1 Technical Appendices 1.1 Overview This document provides the Technical Appendices to the Transport for the North (TfN) Northern Freight and Logistics Report. Together these form the Phase 2/3 Technical Report jointly prepared by Mott MacDonald and MDS Transmodal. Alone, the Report Document presents the preferred recommendations in a concise format designed to be read and understood by the ‘non-technical’ reader. Those who wish to delve further into the the recommendation development methodology, testing and appraisal and the proposed measures will find a greater level of technical depth in this document. References are provided in the Rreport Document to signpost the reader to the appropriate section of this Technical Appendices document. An overview of this Technical Appendices document is provided in Section 1.2; supported by cross-references throughout. 1.2 Structure of Appendices This document is structured into five main parts: n Appendix A: Methodologies; n Appendix B: Scenario Testing; n Appendix C: Appraisal of Preferred Recommendations; n Appendix D: Recommendations Details; and n Appendix E: Supporting Policy and Commercial Context. The content of each part is discussed in greater detail in the following sections. 1.2.1 Appendix A: Methodologies Appendix A details the methodologies employed during Phases 1, 2 and 3 of the study. Phase 1 focused on the development of a comprehensive baseline understanding of the existing freight and logistics industry, including learning from international best practice and stakeholder feedback and developing an assessment of existing and future strengths and weaknesses. Phase 2 involved the development of a Preliminary Central scenario and four alternative ‘Do Something’ scenarios for testing in order to support identification of the preferred recommendations. For this the Great Britain Freight Model (GBFM) was used to understand the performance of these scenarios against a ‘Do Minimum’ scenario. Phase 3, which focused on further development and refinement of the preferred recommendations, utilised standard WebTAG compliant transport appraisal techniques, supported by additional bespoke appraisal to understand the environmental impacts and wider economic benefits in order to assess its overall performance. 1.2.2 Appendix B: Scenario Testing Appendix B details the results of the scenario testing undertaken for the Preliminary Central scenario and four alternative scenarios (Road; Rail; Water and Environment) for the forecast year of 2033. 4 | Northern Freight & Logistics Report: Technical Appendices | 5 1.2.3 Appendix C: Appraisal of Preferred Recommendations Appendix A. Methodologies Appendix C provides commentary on how the results of the scenario testing were interpreted alongside industry knowledge and stakeholder feedback to identify the preferred recommendations. Details of the This Appendix presents the methodologies used at each of the key project stages; namely establishing the results of the transport, environmental and wider economic appraisal exercises are provided, with the results baseline, stakeholder engagement, scenario development, freight modelling and appraisal. presented in an Appraisal Summary Table (AST) accompanied by supporting commentary. Wider contextual information is also provided on the potential industry response to the implementation of the public sector measures contained within the preferred recommendations. Finally, details of the high economic growth A.1 Establishing the Baseline sensitivity test that was performed on the preferred recommendations are provided, alongside analysis of the results. Phase 1 of the programme required the team to develop an agreed and comprehensive baseline, using a combination of research, professional expertise, modelling and stakeholder engagement. More specifically, it 1.2.4 Appendix D: Recommendations Details included: Appendix D presents the full list of public sector measures contained in the preferred recommendations, n A review of International, European and National level agreements as they relate to freight transport and alongside supporting rationale for their inclusion. In particular, rail freight path proposals are set out in more logistics, and the resultant environmental, employment, planning and transportation considerations; detail. One of the key private sector responses anticipated as a result of the implementation of the preferred n A best practice review of freight modelling, and the development of case studies to review a sample of recommendations is the development of additional Multimodal Distribution Parks (MDPs) in the North of existing European and international freight and logistics strategies; England and wider UK; and this section provides a list of suitable sites that have the potential for rail and/or water connections to support this type of activity. n Use of the Great Britain Freight Model (hereafter referred to as GBFM) to develop ‘present day’ and ‘do- minimum future’ scenarios for freight and logistics in the UK; and 1.2.5 Appendix E: Supporting Policy and Commercial Context n A baseline stakeholder conference, including workshops (reported in Appendix A.2 in further detail). Appendix E provides wider contextual information that enables greater understanding of the industry context The TfN Northern Freight and Logistics Report Baseline Report includes full details of the above. in which the report has been developed, including: n The port sector; A.2 Stakeholder Engagement n The rail freight sector; A.2.1 Overview n Supplementary information submitted to the consultancy team as follows: In order to ensure that stakeholder expertise, experience and vision for the freight and logistics sector – Developing a market for distribution centre developers informed the recommendations development process, a programme of engagement was undertaken as – Developing a market for distribution centre occupiers outlined in Table A.1. Engagement activities were tailored to the different stakeholder groups activated by the three phases of the recommendations development process. The diagram presented in Figure A.1 n Modelling competition between distribution centre locations; and provides an overview of each stakeholder group. n Urban freight transport issues and objectives. 6 | Northern Freight & Logistics Report: Technical Appendices | 7 Figure A.1: Stakeholder Groups Following project inception, interviews with trade association representatives were undertaken, which were used to gather intelligence on their members’ key issues and priorities. The interviews also provided an opportunity to secure trade association support for promoting the recommendation development conference and to explore topics for discussion at the event. The recommendation development conference was held on 1st October 2015 in Liverpool and over 50 delegates attended from across the freight and logistics sector. Following a series of presentations which provided context and background to the recommendations, stakeholders were asked to give their views on the current strengths and opportunities; constraints and issues; and changes and developments required for the sector to realise its potential, as part of facilitated workshop sessions. Stakeholders were also given the opportunity to provide further comment in an online survey which was designed to capture additional insights to inform the Phase 1 baseline. All conference delegates were asked to complete the survey and a link to the survey was disseminated by the trade associations to their members. A total of 41 responses to the online survey were received. The findings from the conference and the online survey were reviewed by the project team and used to develop and inform the TfN Freight and Logistics Baseline Report. To conclude the engagement activities undertaken in Phase 1, a gap analysis was undertaken to identify if any sectors were under represented. The analysis identified that the e-commerce