Dpiw – Surface Water Models Detention and Black River Catchments

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DPIW – SURFACE WATER MODELS DETENTION AND BLACK RIVER CATCHMENTS

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

DOCUMENT INFORMATION

JOB/PROJECT TITLE Tascatch Variation 2 -Surface Water Models CLIENT ORGANISATION Department of Primary Industries and Water CLIENT CONTACT Bryce Graham

DOCUMENT ID NUMBER WR 2007/069 JOB/PROJECT MANAGER Mark Willis JOB/PROJECT NUMBER E202869/P205357 Document History and Status Revision Prepared Reviewed Approved Date Revision by by by approved type 1.0 J. Bennett M. Willis C. Smythe Jan 2008 FINAL

Current Document Approval PREPARED BY James Bennett

Water Resources Mngt Sign Date

REVIEWED BY Mark Willis

Water Resources Mngt Sign Date

APPROVED FOR Crispin Smythe SUBMISSION Water Resources Mngt Sign Date Current Document Distribution List Organisation Date Issued To DPIW Jan 2008 Bryce Graham

The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Hydro Tasmania. This document may only be used for the purposes of assessing our offer of services and for inclusion in documentation for the engagement of Hydro Tasmania. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part for any other purpose without the written permission of Hydro Tasmania constitutes an infringement of copyright.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report is part of a series of reports which present the methodologies and results from the development and calibration of surface water hydrological models for 25 catchments (Tascatch – Variation 2) under both current and natural flow conditions. This report describes the results of the hydrological model developed for the Detention and Black River catchments.

A model was developed for the Detention and Black River catchment that facilitates the modelling of flow data for three scenarios:

• Scenario 1 – No entitlements (Natural Flow);

• Scenario 2 – with Entitlements (with water entitlements extracted);

• Scenario 3 - Environmental Flows and Entitlements (Water entitlements extracted, however low priority entitlements are limited by an environmental flow threshold).

The results from the scenario modelling allow the calculation of indices of hydrological disturbance. These indices include:

• Index of Mean Annual Flow

• Index of Flow Duration Curve Difference

• Index of Seasonal Amplitude

• Index of Seasonal Periodicity

• Hydrological Disturbance Index

The indices were calculated using the formulas stated in the Natural Resource Management (NRM) Monitoring and Evaluation Framework developed by SKM for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDBC 08/04).

A user interface is also provided that allows the user to run the model under varying catchment demand scenarios. This allows the user to add further extractions to catchments and see what effect these additional extractions have on the available water in the catchment of concern. The interface provides sub-catchment summary of flow statistics, duration curves, hydrological indices and water entitlements data. For information on the use of the user interface refer to the Operating Manual for the NAP Region Hydrological Models (Hydro Tasmania 2004).

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ii 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. CATCHMENT CHARACTERISTICS 2 3. DATA COMPILATION 4 3.1 Climate data (Rainfall & Evaporation) 4 3.2 Advantages of using climate DRILL data 4 3.3 Transposition of climate DRILL data to local catchment 5 3.4 Comparison of Data Drill rainfall and site gauges 7 3.5 Streamflow data 8 3.6 Irrigation and water usage 9 3.6.1 Estimation of unlicensed (small) farm dams 17 3.7 Environmental flows 18 4. MODEL DEVELOPMENT 21 4.1 Sub-catchment delineation 21 4.2 Hydstra Model 21 4.3 AWBM Model 23 4.3.1 Channel Routing 25 4.4 Model Calibration 26 4.4.1 Factors affecting the reliability of the model calibration. 33 4.4.2 Model Accuracy - Model Fit Statistics 34 4.4.3 Model accuracy across the catchment 37 5. MODEL RESULTS 40 5.1.1 Indices of hydrological disturbance 40 6. FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS 43 7. REFERENCES 45 7.1 Personal Communications 46 8. GLOSSARY 47 APPENDIX A 49

iii

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2-1 Sub-catchment boundaries 3

Figure 3-1 Climate Drill Site Locations 6

Figure 3-2 Rainfall and Data Drill Comparisons 8

Figure 3-3 WIMS Water Allocations 16

Figure 4-1 Hydstra Model Schematic 22

Figure 4-2 Two Tap Australian Water Balance Model Schematic 25

Figure 4-3 Monthly Variation of CapAve Parameter 29

Figure 4-4 Daily time series comparison (ML/d) – Black River - Good fit. 30

Figure 4-5 Daily time series comparison (ML/d) – Black River – Good fit. 30

Figure 4-6 Daily time series comparison (ML/d) – Black River – Good fit. 31

Figure 4-7 Monthly time series comparison – volume (ML) 31

Figure 4-8 Long term average monthly, seasonal and annual comparison plot 32

Figure 4-9 Duration Curve – Daily flow percentage difference 36

Figure 4-10 Duration Curve – Monthly volume percentage difference 36

Figure 4-11 Time Series of Monthly Volumes- Site 14226 38

Figure 4-12 Time Series of Monthly Volumes- SC 9_e 39

Figure 5-1 Daily Duration Curve 40

Figure 6-1 Modelled and Observed Flood Frequency Plot - Black River at South Forest (site 14213) 44

Figure A-1 Forth catchment – monthly volumes at secondary site. 51

Figure A-2 George catchment – monthly volumes at secondary site. 51

Figure A-3 Leven catchment – monthly volumes at secondary site. 52

Figure A-4 Swan catchment – monthly volumes at secondary site. 52

Figure A-5 Montagu catchment – monthly volumes at secondary site. 53

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

LIST OF TABLES

Table 3.1 Data Drill Site Locations 7

Table 3.2 Observed flow sites 9

Table 3.3 Assumed Surety of Unassigned Records 10

Table 3.4 Sub Catchment High and Low Priority Entitlements 11

Table 3.5 Average capacity for dams less than 20 ML by Neal et al (2002) 18

Table 3.6 Environmental Flows 19

Table 4.1 Boughton & Chiew, AWBM surface storage parameters 23

Table 4.2 Hydstra/TSM Modelling Parameter Bounds 26

Table 4.3 Adopted Calibration Parameters 28

Table 4.4 Long term average monthly, seasonal and annual comparisons 32

Table 4.5 Model Fit Statistics 34

Table 4.6 R 2 Fit Description 35

Table 5.1 Hydrological Disturbance Indices 41

Table A-1 Model performance at secondary sites 54

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

1. INTRODUCTION

This report forms part of a larger project commissioned by the Department of Primary Industries and Water (DPIW) to provide hydrological models for 25 regional catchments (Tascatch – Variation 2).

The main objectives for the individual catchments are:

• To compile relevant data required for the development and calibration of the hydrological model (Australian Water Balance Model, AWBM) for the Detention and Black River catchments;

• To source over 100 years of daily time-step rainfall and streamflow data for input to the hydrologic model.

• To develop and calibrate each hydrologic model, to allow running of the model under varying catchment demand scenarios;

• To develop a User Interface for running the model under these various catchment demand scenarios;

• Prepare a report summarising the methodology adopted, assumptions made, results of calibration and validation and description relating to the use of the developed hydrologic model and associated software.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

2. CATCHMENT CHARACTERISTICS

The Detention catchment adjoins the north-east boundary of the Black River catchment in North West Tasmania. Both Rivers flow northwest into Bass Strait from their headwaters in the Dip Range, which rises to 554 m ASL (Detention Peak) in the south- east of both catchments. The total catchment area covered by the model is 578 km 2, which, as well as the Black and Detention Rivers, includes the significant streams of Wilsons Creek and Crayfish Creek as well as a number of smaller streams. The catchment is covered by a mix of forested areas (principally covered by sclerophyllous native forests) and agrarian plains. Some catchments, such as Wilsons Creek, are almost entirely deforested and exploited for agriculture, while others, e.g. Dip River, are forested for nearly their entire length. There are no major urban areas within the catchment (the nearby town of Stanley falls outside the catchment area).

Annual rainfall varies across this catchment, mainly due to the changes in elevation and the varied exposure to the dominant westerly weather pattern. The lower catchment around the coast receives a typical annual rainfall of around 1000mm and the upper catchment around Detention Peak receives more than 1600 mm.

There are 334 registered (current) entitlements for water extraction registered on the Water Information Management System (WIMS July 2007). Most of these extractions are concentrated in the lower sub-catchments and mainly relate to agriculture. The largest extraction entitlement is 500 ML, used for irrigation. Entitlements are not distributed evenly over the catchment. Extraction entitlements occur along nearly the entire length of the Black River (including, unusually, towards the upper Black River (Sc2_f, Sc2_e, Sc16_a), but excepting the middle of the catchment: see Figure 3-3), but do not occur at all along the Black River’s major tributary, the Dip River. The Wilson Creek catchment is heavily exploited for agriculture and accordingly has many extraction entitlements, while the Crayfish Creek catchment is almost entirely forested and has no water extraction entitlements. While entitlements occur in the upper part of the Detention River catchment, they are more concentrated in the lower catchment.

For modelling purposes, the Detention and Black River catchments were divided into 59 subareas. The delineation of these areas and the assumed stream routing network is shown in Figure 2-1.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Figure 2-1 Sub-catchment boundaries

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

3. DATA COMPILATION

3.1 Climate data (Rainfall & Evaporation) Daily time-step climate data was obtained from the Queensland Department of Natural Resources & Mines (QDNRM).

The Department provides time series climate drill data from 0.05 o x 0.05 o (about 5 km x 5 km) interpolated gridded rainfall and evaporation data based on over 6000 rainfall and evaporation stations in Australia (see www.nrm.qld.gov.au/silo ) for further details of climate drill data.

3.2 Advantages of using climate DRILL data This data has a number of benefits over other sources of rainfall data including:

• Continuous data back to 1889 (however, further back there are less input sites available and therefore quality is reduced. The makers of the data set state that gauge numbers have been somewhat static since 1957, therefore back to 1957 distribution is considered “good” but prior to 1957 site availability may need to be checked in the study area);

• Evaporation data (along with a number of other climatic variables) is also included which can be used for the AWBM model. According to the QNRM web site, all Data Drill evaporation information combines a mixture of the following data.

1. Observed data from the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

2. Interpolated daily climate surfaces from the on-line NR&M climate archive.

3. Observed pre-1957 climate data from the CLIMARC project (LWRRDC QPI- 43). NR&M was a major research collaborator on the CLIMARC project, and these data have been integrated into the on-line NR&M climate archive.

4. Interpolated pre-1957 climate surfaces. This data set derived mainly from the CLIMARC project data, are available in the on-line NR&M climate archive.

5. Incorporation of Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data records. Typically, an AWS is placed at a user's site to provide accurate local weather measurements.

For the Detention and Black River catchments the evaporation data was examined and it

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

was found that prior to 1970 the evaporation information is based on the long term daily averages of the post 1970 data. In the absence of any reliable long term site data this is considered to be the best available evaporation data set for this catchment.

3.3 Transposition of climate DRILL data to local catchment Ten climate Data Drill sites were selected to give good coverage of the Detention and Black River catchments. One of these sites corresponds to the same location as Data Drill information sourced for the Sisters Creek catchment model.

See the following Figure 3-1 for a map of the climate Data Drill sites and Table 3.1 for the location information.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Figure 3-1 Climate Drill site locations

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Table 3.1 Data Drill Site Locations

Site Latitude Longitude Det_Black_01 -40:51:00 145:15:00 Det_Black_02 -40:54:00 145:18:00 Sisters_01 -40:54:00 145:30:00 Det_Black_03 -40:57:00 145:15:00 Det_Black_04 -40:57:00 145:21:00 Det_Black_05 -40:57:00 145:27:00 Det_Black_06 -41:00:00 145:18:00 Det_Black_07 -41:00:00 145:27:00 Det_Black_08 -41:03:00 145:24:00 Det_Black_09 -41:06:00 145:27:00

3.4 Comparison of Data Drill rainfall and site gauges As rainfall data is a critical input to the modelling process it is important to have confidence that the Data Drill long term generated time series does in fact reflect what is being observed within the catchment. Rainfall sites in closest proximity to the Data Drill locations were sourced and compared. The visual comparison and the R 2 value indicate that there appears to be good correlation between the two, which is to be expected as the Data Drill information is derived from site data. The annual rainfall totals of selected Data Drill sites and neighbouring sites for coincident periods are plotted in Figure 3-2.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

2000 Data Drill - Det_Black_0a Mawbanna - Site 1559 R2 = 1.00 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600

Annaul Annaul Rainfall (mm) 400 200 0

6 2 2 2 88 96 970 97 976 980 98 986 9 990 99 1 1968 1 1 1974 1 1978 1 1 1984 1 1 1 1

1600 Data Drill - Det_Black_01 Forest - Site 1527 R2 = 0.99

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400 Annaul Annaul Rainfall (mm) 200

5 1 7 1 3 9 5 71 93 939 94 945 94 95 95 957 95 963 96 969 9 1 1937 1 1 1943 1 1 1949 1 1 1955 1 1 1961 1 1 1967 1 1 1973

2000 Data Drill - Sisters_01 Detention River - Site 1623 R2 = 0.86 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600

Annaul Annaul Rainfall (mm) 400 200 0 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971

Figure 3-2 Rainfall and Data Drill comparisons

3.5 Streamflow data No suitable streamflow record exists for the Detention River. There was only one gauging record in the model catchment that had a significant period of record, complete flow ratings and was located suitably low in the catchment: Black River at South Forest (site 14213). There was an alternative gauging site located on New Haven Creek (New

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Haven Creek upstream of Black River – site 14226) which was suitable as a comparison site to validate the model. The details of these sites are given in the following table

Table 3.2 Observed flow sites

Site Name Site Sub- Period of Record Easting Northing Comments No. catchment Location Black River 14213 SC1_j 28/05/1968 to present 356400 5473900 Some gaps in at South record, notably in Forest 2005 and 2006 New Haven 14226 SC3_a 20/03/1984 to 366800 5460600 Small Tributary Creek 16/06/1992 high in catchment upstream Black River

A continuous time series in ML/day was provided at the calibration site by DPIW and it is therefore assumed that this represents the best available flow record. Hence no detailed review or alteration of this data has been undertaken.

Investigations of the rating histories and qualities contained on the Hydro Tasmania’s archives indicated that there were at least four different ratings applied during the calibration period. Streamflow in the DPIW record between August and September 2005 was noticeably stepped - indicating that it was not continuous, and unreliable (comments to this effect were made in the record). Records for these two months were omitted when calibrating the model.

3.6 Irrigation and water usage Information on the current water entitlement allocations in the catchment was obtained from DPIW and is sourced from the Water Information Management System (WIMS July 2007). The WIMS extractions or licenses in the catchment are of a given Surety (from 1 to 8), with Surety 1-3 representing high priority extractions for modelling purposes and Surety 4-8 representing the lowest priority. The data provided by DPIW contained a number of sites which had a Surety of 0. DPIW staff advised that in these cases the surety should be determined by the extraction “Purpose” and assigned as follows:

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Table 3.3 Assumed surety of unassigned records

Purpose Surety Aesthetic 6 Aquaculture 6 Commercial 6 Domestic 1 Industrial 6 Irrigation 6 Storage 6 Other 6 Power Generation 6 Recreation 6 Stock and Domestic S & D 1 Stock 1 Water Supply 1 Fire Fighting 1 Dust Proof 6

In total there were 393 ML unassigned entitlements (surety = 0) identified for inclusion in the surface water model, 331 ML of which were assigned surety 1 and 62 ML were assigned surety 6.

DPIW staff also advised that the water extraction information provided should be filtered to remove the following records:

• Extractions relating to fish farms should be omitted as this water is returned to the stream. These are identified by a Purpose name called “ fish farm ” or “ Acquacult”. There were no fish farms identified in this catchment. There were none identified for this model;

• The extraction data set includes a “WE_status” field where only “ current” and “existing” should be used for extractions. All other records, for example deleted, deferred, transferred, suspended and proposed, should be omitted;

• 10 extraction entitlements had period amounts of 0 ML (i.e. these entitled the holders to extract nothing). These were included in the user interface (even though they clearly did not contribute to the extractions from the catchment) so that they may be updated by DPIW in future.

When modelling Scenario 3 (Environmental flows and Entitlements), water will only be available for Low Priority entitlements after environmental flow requirements have been met.

There were communications with DPIW staff, on allowances for extractions not yet included in the WIMS (July 2007) water licence database. DPIW advised that the

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

unlicensed extractions estimate should be three times the current surety 5 direct extractions. This unlicensed estimate should be apportioned across the sub-catchments the same as the surety 5 extractions. There were 1383 ML of direct surety 5 extractions (current) in the WIMS database and accordingly an estimate of 4143 ML of unlicensed extractions was apportioned across the catchment. DPIW advised that these unlicensed extractions should be assigned as surety 6 and be extracted during the months of October through to April.

In addition to the extractions detailed above, an estimate was a made for small farm dam extractions currently not requiring a permit and hence not listed in the WIMS database. Theses extractions are referred to in this report as unlicensed (small) farm dam extractions and details of the extraction estimate is covered in Section 3.6.1.

A summary table of total entitlement volumes on a monthly basis by sub-catchment is provided below in Table 3.4 and in the Catchment User Interface. Theses values include the estimates of unlicensed extractions, unlicensed farm dams and WIMS database extractions. A map of the WIMS (July 2007) water allocations in the catchment are shown in Figure 3-3.

Table 3.4 Sub Catchment high and low priority entitlements

Water Entitlements Summarized - Monthly Demand (ML) for each Subarea & Month Subcat ch Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total High Priority Entitlements SC1_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_d 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_e 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC1_f 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_g 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_h 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_i 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.74 0.71 0.74 0.74 0.71 0.17 0.16 0.17 5 SC1_j 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.82 0.85 0.85 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 SC1_k 0.34 0.31 0.34 0.33 5.73 5.54 5.73 5.73 5.54 0.34 0.33 0.34 31 SC2_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC2_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.70 1.65 1.70 1.70 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 8 SC2_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.55 2.47 2.55 2.55 2.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 13 SC2_d 1.10 1.00 1.10 1.07 3.66 3.54 3.66 3.66 3.54 1.10 1.07 1.10 26 SC2_e 0.85 0.77 0.85 0.82 1.13 1.10 1.13 1.13 1.10 0.85 0.82 0.85 11 SC2_f 0.76 0.69 0.76 0.74 2.47 2.39 2.47 2.47 2.39 0.76 0.74 0.76 17 SC3_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC4_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC5_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC6_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

SC6_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC7_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC8_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC8_b 0.42 0.38 0.42 0.41 1.28 1.23 1.28 1.28 1.23 0.42 0.41 0.42 9 SC8_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC9_a 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 1.22 1.18 1.22 1.22 1.18 0.08 0.08 0.08 7 SC9_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.82 0.85 0.85 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 SC9_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC9_d 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.70 1.65 1.70 1.70 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 8 SC9_e 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC9_f 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.82 0.85 0.85 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 SC9_g 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.99 1.92 1.99 1.99 1.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 10 SC10_a 0.68 0.61 0.68 0.66 1.81 1.76 1.81 1.81 1.76 0.68 0.66 0.68 14 SC11_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.13 1.10 1.13 1.13 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 SC12_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC13_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC14_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC14_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC15_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC15_b 8.32 7.52 8.32 8.05 10.03 9.70 10.03 10.03 9.70 8.32 8.05 8.32 106 SC15_c 7.22 6.52 7.22 6.99 12.04 11.65 12.04 12.04 11.65 7.22 6.99 7.22 109 SC15_d 5.35 4.83 5.35 5.18 6.20 6.00 6.20 6.20 6.00 5.35 5.18 5.35 67 SC16_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.13 1.10 1.13 1.13 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 SC16_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC16_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC17_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC18_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC19_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.82 4.67 4.82 4.82 4.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 24 SC20_a 0.59 0.54 0.59 0.58 3.15 3.05 3.15 3.15 3.05 0.59 0.58 0.59 20 SC21_a 1.36 1.23 1.36 1.32 5.33 5.16 5.33 5.33 5.16 1.36 1.32 1.36 36 SC22_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC23_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.55 0.57 0.57 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 3 SC23_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC24_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.55 0.57 0.57 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 3 SC25_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC26_a 2.04 1.84 2.04 1.97 2.04 1.97 2.04 2.04 1.97 2.04 1.97 2.04 24 SC27_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC28_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.82 0.85 0.85 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 Total 29 26 29 28 79 77 79 79 77 29 28 29 591 Low Priority Entitlements SC1_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_d 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_e 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 1.26 1.30 1.30 1.26 1.30 1.26 0.00 9 SC1_f 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_g 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_h 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_i 30.91 27.92 30.91 29.91 43.71 42.30 43.71 43.71 42.30 64.76 34.96 30.91 466 SC1_j 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.78 4.63 4.78 4.78 4.63 4.78 4.63 0.00 33 SC1_k 104.2 87.79 67.20 64.06 82.36 79.70 82.36 82.36 79.70 127.10 123.00 97.20 1,077 SC2_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC2_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 43.46 42.06 43.46 43.46 42.06 43.46 42.06 0.00 300

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

SC2_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.76 22.99 23.76 23.76 22.99 23.76 22.99 0.00 164 SC2_d 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.74 31.68 32.74 32.74 31.68 32.74 31.68 0.00 226 SC2_e 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45.20 43.74 45.20 45.20 43.74 45.20 43.74 0.00 312 SC2_f 0.68 0.61 0.68 0.66 40.52 39.21 40.52 40.52 39.21 40.52 39.21 0.68 283 SC3_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC4_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC5_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC6_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC6_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC7_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC8_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC8_b 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 41.37 40.04 41.37 41.37 40.04 41.37 40.04 0.08 286 SC8_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC9_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.53 7.29 7.53 7.53 7.29 7.53 7.29 0.00 52 SC9_b 19.32 17.45 19.32 18.70 82.14 79.49 82.14 82.14 79.49 95.30 92.22 19.32 687 SC9_c 17.39 15.70 17.39 16.83 15.21 14.72 15.21 15.21 14.72 27.05 26.18 17.39 213 SC9_d 175.3 158.4 175.31 169.66 23.32 22.57 23.32 23.32 22.57 141.77 137.19 175.31 1,248 SC9_e 7.08 6.40 7.08 6.86 8.98 8.69 8.98 8.98 8.69 13.81 13.36 7.08 106 SC9_f 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.84 8.55 8.84 8.84 8.55 8.84 8.55 0.00 61 SC9_g 77.28 69.80 78.00 75.06 8.69 8.41 8.69 8.69 8.41 61.33 59.35 77.28 541 SC10_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC11_a 83.72 75.62 83.72 81.02 13.76 13.32 13.76 13.76 13.32 70.79 68.51 83.72 615 SC12_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC13_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC14_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC14_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC15_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.27 8.97 9.27 9.27 8.97 9.27 8.97 0.00 64 SC15_b 37.99 34.32 37.99 36.77 45.20 43.74 45.20 45.20 43.74 71.08 68.79 37.99 548 SC15_c 149.4 134.9 149.40 144.58 183.82 177.89 183.82 183.82 177.89 285.60 237.42 149.40 2,158 SC15_d 19.96 18.03 19.96 19.32 13.33 12.90 13.33 13.33 12.90 26.93 26.06 19.96 216 SC16_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.60 12.20 12.60 12.60 12.20 12.60 12.20 0.00 87 SC16_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC16_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC17_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC18_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC19_a 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 9.36 9.05 9.36 9.36 9.05 9.36 9.05 0.08 65 SC20_a 43.79 39.55 43.79 42.38 70.40 68.13 70.40 70.40 68.13 100.23 97.00 43.79 758 SC21_a 16.74 15.12 16.74 16.20 108.07 104.58 108.07 108.07 104.58 119.47 115.62 16.74 850 SC22_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.91 3.79 3.91 3.91 3.79 3.91 3.79 0.00 27 SC23_a 24.43 22.07 24.43 23.64 77.27 74.77 77.27 77.27 74.77 91.30 88.36 24.43 680 SC23_b 111.4 100.6 111.41 107.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.89 73.44 111.41 692 SC24_a 14.17 12.80 14.17 13.71 1.30 1.26 1.30 1.30 1.26 10.95 10.60 14.17 97 SC25_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.20 4.07 4.20 4.20 4.07 4.20 4.07 0.00 29 SC26_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC27_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.19 3.08 3.19 3.19 3.08 3.19 3.08 0.00 22 SC28_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.46 2.38 2.46 2.46 2.38 2.46 2.38 0.00 17 Total 934 837 898 867 1,072 1,037 1,072 1,072 1,037 1,678 1,557 927 12,989

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

All Entitlements SC1_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_d 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_e 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.59 1.54 1.59 1.59 1.54 1.30 1.26 0.00 10 SC1_f 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_g 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_h 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC1_i 31.08 28.07 31.08 30.08 44.44 43.01 44.44 44.44 43.01 64.93 35.12 31.08 471 SC1_j 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.63 5.45 5.63 5.63 5.45 4.78 4.63 0.00 37 SC1_k 104.5 88.10 67.53 64.39 88.08 85.24 88.08 88.08 85.24 127.44 123.33 97.53 1,108 SC2_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC2_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45.16 43.70 45.16 45.16 43.70 43.46 42.06 0.00 308 SC2_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.31 25.46 26.31 26.31 25.46 23.76 22.99 0.00 177 SC2_d 1.10 1.00 1.10 1.07 36.40 35.22 36.40 36.40 35.22 33.84 32.75 1.10 252 SC2_e 0.85 0.77 0.85 0.82 46.33 44.83 46.33 46.33 44.83 46.05 44.56 0.85 323 SC2_f 1.44 1.30 1.44 1.40 42.98 41.60 42.98 42.98 41.60 41.28 39.95 1.44 300 SC3_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC4_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC5_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC6_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC6_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC7_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC8_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC8_b 0.51 0.46 0.51 0.49 42.65 41.27 42.65 42.65 41.27 41.79 40.45 0.51 295 SC8_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC9_a 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 8.75 8.47 8.75 8.75 8.47 7.62 7.37 0.08 59 SC9_b 19.32 17.45 19.32 18.70 82.99 80.31 82.99 82.99 80.31 95.30 92.22 19.32 691 SC9_c 17.39 15.70 17.39 16.83 15.21 14.72 15.21 15.21 14.72 27.05 26.18 17.39 213 SC9_d 175.3 158.4 175.31 169.66 25.02 24.22 25.02 25.02 24.22 141.77 137.19 175.31 1,256 SC9_e 7.08 6.40 7.08 6.86 9.26 8.97 9.26 9.26 8.97 13.81 13.36 7.08 107 SC9_f 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.69 9.37 9.69 9.69 9.37 8.84 8.55 0.00 65 SC9_g 77.28 69.80 78.00 75.06 10.68 10.33 10.68 10.68 10.33 61.33 59.35 77.28 551 SC10_a 0.68 0.61 0.68 0.66 1.81 1.76 1.81 1.81 1.76 0.68 0.66 0.68 14 SC11_a 83.72 75.62 83.72 81.02 14.90 14.42 14.90 14.90 14.42 70.79 68.51 83.72 621 SC12_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC13_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC14_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC14_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC15_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.55 9.25 9.55 9.55 9.25 9.27 8.97 0.00 65 SC15_b 46.32 41.84 46.32 44.82 55.22 53.44 55.22 55.22 53.44 79.40 76.84 46.32 654 SC15_c 156.6 141.5 156.62 151.57 195.86 189.55 195.86 195.86 189.55 292.82 244.40 156.62 2,267 SC15_d 25.31 22.86 25.31 24.50 19.53 18.90 19.53 19.53 18.90 32.28 31.24 25.31 283 SC16_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.74 13.29 13.74 13.74 13.29 12.60 12.20 0.00 93 SC16_b 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC16_c 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC17_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - SC18_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 SC19_a 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 14.18 13.72 14.18 14.18 13.72 9.36 9.05 0.08 89 SC20_a 44.38 40.09 44.38 42.95 73.55 71.18 73.55 73.55 71.18 100.83 97.57 44.38 778

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

SC21_a 18.10 16.35 18.10 17.52 113.40 109.74 113.40 113.40 109.74 120.83 116.93 18.10 886 SC22_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.19 4.06 4.19 4.19 4.06 3.91 3.79 0.00 28 SC23_a 24.43 22.07 24.43 23.64 77.83 75.32 77.83 77.83 75.32 91.30 88.36 24.43 683 SC23_b 111.4 100.6 111.41 107.81 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 75.89 73.44 111.41 693 SC24_a 14.17 12.80 14.17 13.71 1.87 1.81 1.87 1.87 1.81 10.95 10.60 14.17 100 SC25_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.20 4.07 4.20 4.20 4.07 4.20 4.07 0.00 29 SC26_a 2.04 1.84 2.04 1.97 2.04 1.97 2.04 2.04 1.97 2.04 1.97 2.04 24 SC27_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.47 3.36 3.47 3.47 3.36 3.19 3.08 0.00 23 SC28_a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.31 3.21 3.31 3.31 3.21 2.46 2.38 0.00 21

Total 963 864 927 896 1,151 1,114 1,151 1,151 1,114 1,707 1,585 956 13,580

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Figure 3-3 WIMS water allocations

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

3.6.1 Estimation of unlicensed (small) farm dams Under current Tasmanian law, a dam permit is not required for a dam if it is not on a watercourse and holds less than 1ML of water storages (prior to 2000 it was 2.5 ML), and only used for stock and domestic purposes. Therefore there are no records for these storages. The storage volume attributed to unlicensed dams was estimated by analysis of aerial photographs and the methodology adopted follows:

• Aerial photographs were analysed. There was reasonable coverage of this catchment with high resolution photographs supplied by DPIW (dates unknown). Photographs covered 47 of 59 subareas. Dams with current storage entitlements were identified, and all additional dams (of any size) were counted in the 47 subareas covered by the photographs. The ratio of unlicensed to licensed dams was calculated for each sub-catchment;

• Using this information, the average ratio of unlicensed to licensed dams was determined to be 0.94. This is slightly higher than the nearby Sisters Creek catchment (0.78) to the east, and substantially higher than the Duck River Catchments (0.23) to the west;

• It was assumed most of these dams would be legally unlicensed dams (less than 1 ML and not situated on a water course) however, it was assumed that there would be a proportion of illegal unlicensed dams up to 20ML in capacity. Some of these were visible on the aerial photographs;

• A frequency distribution of farm dam sizes presented by Neal et al (2002) for the Marne River Catchment in South Australia showed that the average dam capacity for dams less than 20 ML was 1.4 ML (Table 3.5);

• Following discussions with DPIW staff, the unlicensed dam demand was assumed to be 100%. The assumption is that all unlicensed dams will be empty at the start of May and will fill over the winter months, reaching 100% capacity by the end of September;

• Assuming this dam size distribution is similar to the distribution of the study catchment in South Australia then the total volume of unlicensed dams can be estimated as 246.4 ML (176 * 1.4ML). The total volume of existing permitted dams extractions in the study catchment is 7711 ML. Therefore the 246.4 ML of unlicensed dams equates to approximately 3.2% of the total dam extractions from the catchment.

There are some inherent difficulties in detecting farm dams from aerial photography by eye. Depending on the season and time of day that the aerial photograph is taken,

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

farm dams can appear clearly or blend into the surrounding landscape. Vegetation can obscure the presence of a dam, and isolated stands of vegetation can appear as a farm dam when in fact no such dam exists. On balance, however, the number of false detections is countered by the number of missed detections and in the absence of another suitably rapid method the approach gives acceptable results.

Table 3.5 Average capacity for dams less than 20 ML by Neal et al (2002)

Average Total Size Range Volume Number of Volume (ML) (ML) Dams (ML) 0 - 0.5 0.25 126 31.5 0.5 - 2 1.25 79 98.75 2 - 5 3.5 13 45.5 5 - 10 7.5 7 52.5 10 - 20 15 6 90 27.5 231 318.25 Average Dam Volume: 1.4 ML

3.7 Environmental flows One of the modelling scenarios (Scenario 3) was to account for environmental flows within the catchment. DPIW advised that for the Black and Detention River catchments, they currently do not have environmental flow requirements defined. In the absence of this information it was agreed that the calibrated catchment model would be run in the Modelled – No entitlements (Natural) scenario and the environmental flow would be assumed to be:

• The 20 th percentile for each sub-catchment during the winter period (01May to 31 st Oct).

• The 30 th percentile for each sub-catchment during the summer period (01 Nov – 30 April).

The Modelled – No entitlements (Natural) flow scenario was run from 01/01/1900 to 01/01/2007.

A summary table of the environmental flows on a monthly breakdown by sub-catchment is provided in the following table and in the Catchment User Interface.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Table 3.6 Environmental flows

Sub - Catch Environmental Flow (ML/d) per month at each sub-Catchment ment Area (km 2) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average SC1_a 11.1 1.9 1.2 0.9 1.7 7.5 21.1 30.9 34.4 24.8 12.3 11.2 4.3 12.7 SC1_b 15.9 4.6 2.9 2.3 4.2 17.3 51.9 74.8 83.0 59.8 29.7 27.2 10.5 30.7 SC1_c 16.5 7.3 4.6 3.5 6.6 24.6 81.4 117.2 127.9 92.7 44.4 42.1 16.4 47.4 SC1_d 13.4 9.4 6.1 4.5 8.5 30.7 101.3 150.9 162.4 119.5 53.8 53.8 21.0 60.2 SC1_e 8.0 10.5 6.9 5.0 9.6 34.7 110.2 170.4 182.3 135.6 59.1 60.3 23.7 67.4 SC1_f 5.1 12.2 8.4 6.0 11.6 41.7 127.3 205.2 215.8 162.9 68.8 70.3 27.5 79.8 SC1_g 10.2 15.4 12.3 8.5 17.4 61.2 184.9 289.1 306.3 233.9 95.8 98.5 38.7 113.5 SC1_h 9.2 27.0 22.8 15.6 32.0 110.7 314.2 493.5 534.3 416.0 166.5 174.4 67.8 197.9 SC1_i 13.4 32.5 28.7 18.3 39.4 133.3 392.8 602.6 670.4 526.4 202.5 208.0 84.6 245.0 SC1_j 15.0 34.6 30.2 19.2 40.6 136.6 401.4 632.8 709.3 556.0 213.2 215.2 89.9 256.6 SC1_k 12.8 35.9 31.0 19.7 41.7 136.1 398.2 652.4 733.1 571.8 219.2 219.2 93.5 262.7 SC2_a 10.7 1.6 1.1 0.8 1.6 5.7 17.2 27.2 28.2 20.8 9.4 9.7 3.5 10.6 SC2_b 15.9 8.0 5.8 4.0 8.5 31.3 86.3 134.3 143.6 110.1 45.0 51.8 17.8 53.9 SC2_c 9.5 8.9 6.7 4.6 9.8 35.6 97.5 154.1 163.6 126.6 50.7 57.5 20.4 61.3 SC2_d 7.8 9.6 7.4 5.1 10.8 39.1 105.0 169.8 179.8 139.9 55.5 61.3 22.4 67.1 SC2_e 8.2 10.3 8.2 5.7 12.0 42.9 113.3 181.7 196.5 153.4 60.5 65.5 24.6 72.9 SC2_f 8.5 11.0 9.0 6.3 13.2 46.7 122.9 194.2 213.3 167.0 65.5 69.9 26.8 78.8 SC3_a 12.3 1.8 1.3 0.9 1.9 7.1 18.8 29.2 31.4 24.5 9.7 10.6 3.9 11.8 SC4_a 16.5 2.4 1.7 1.2 2.5 9.3 25.9 40.4 42.6 32.4 13.3 15.4 5.3 16.0 SC5_a 9.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.4 4.8 13.7 22.3 22.7 17.0 6.8 7.7 2.8 8.5 SC6_a 14.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 2.0 6.0 19.3 31.0 33.5 26.5 9.1 9.4 3.4 12.0 SC6_b 13.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 2.2 6.8 11.0 11.6 9.2 3.2 3.3 1.2 4.2 SC7_a 5.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.9 6.2 18.6 30.3 30.9 23.9 9.0 9.9 3.7 11.5 SC8_a 15.6 2.8 2.4 1.5 3.6 11.7 35.6 57.7 59.7 46.8 17.2 18.9 6.6 22.0 SC8_b 27.9 3.7 2.5 1.9 5.1 13.6 45.7 73.7 88.3 66.7 21.6 21.2 9.1 29.4 SC8_c 10.8 4.5 3.0 2.4 6.2 16.3 55.1 89.6 108.7 81.1 26.3 26.0 11.3 35.9 SC9_a 17.1 2.4 1.8 1.2 2.6 9.8 26.5 41.3 43.9 33.7 13.6 15.3 5.4 16.5 SC9_b 6.9 3.5 2.8 1.9 4.0 14.1 38.7 61.2 67.5 53.1 20.0 21.3 8.4 24.7 SC9_c 4.7 3.9 3.2 2.1 4.5 15.4 42.8 67.7 76.5 60.5 22.4 23.0 9.5 27.6 SC9_d 15.6 6.4 5.3 3.6 8.1 23.5 71.4 112.8 133.4 103.7 36.7 36.2 16.7 46.5 SC9_e 5.8 6.8 5.7 3.8 8.6 24.4 75.5 118.9 142.3 109.3 38.6 38.1 17.9 49.1 SC9_f 10.3 9.3 7.8 5.2 11.8 32.0 99.8 159.3 195.6 148.1 51.2 50.7 23.1 66.2 SC9_g 9.7 10.0 8.3 5.8 12.7 34.0 106.7 170.1 212.3 158.4 55.0 54.2 25.2 71.1 SC10_a 7.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.9 6.4 11.2 13.7 10.1 3.1 2.9 1.3 4.4 SC11_a 4.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.7 5.1 8.3 9.6 7.5 2.5 2.5 1.1 3.3 SC12_a 13.6 1.4 1.1 0.7 1.7 5.0 15.0 24.0 28.4 22.1 7.5 7.5 3.2 9.8 SC13_a 12.3 0.9 0.4 0.4 1.1 2.2 7.9 13.8 16.7 12.1 4.6 3.8 1.7 5.5 SC14_a 14.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 1.6 4.7 14.0 22.7 26.5 20.5 6.8 6.7 2.9 9.1 SC14_b 6.2 1.9 1.3 0.9 2.2 5.8 18.0 29.3 36.6 27.6 9.1 8.9 3.9 12.1 SC15_a 7.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 1.2 4.7 7.8 9.5 6.2 2.3 2.0 1.1 3.0 SC15_b 6.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 1.2 2.2 8.5 14.3 17.9 11.3 4.4 3.7 2.2 5.6 SC15_c 15.3 1.9 1.0 0.9 2.5 4.7 18.2 30.8 38.5 24.3 9.4 8.0 4.6 12.1 SC15_d 8.3 2.5 1.3 1.2 3.3 6.0 22.8 39.4 50.3 30.7 12.2 10.4 6.0 15.5 SC16_a 8.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.0 2.7 7.9 13.6 15.3 11.5 4.1 3.7 1.6 5.3 SC16_b 5.9 1.3 0.9 0.6 1.5 4.3 12.3 20.5 25.1 18.7 6.6 5.7 2.6 8.3 SC16_c 22.2 3.5 2.0 1.5 3.7 9.3 30.0 52.2 65.0 44.8 16.5 14.0 6.7 20.8 SC17_a 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.4 2.5 3.1 2.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 1.0 SC18_a 7.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.8 2.1 6.4 11.0 12.3 9.2 3.3 3.0 1.2 4.2

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SC19_a 7.9 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 2.7 5.1 6.8 4.2 1.3 1.2 0.7 2.0 SC20_a 6.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.1 4.1 5.4 2.8 1.0 1.0 0.6 1.6 SC21_a 11.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 3.4 6.6 8.8 4.6 1.6 1.7 0.9 2.5 SC22_a 8.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 4.6 8.0 9.7 7.1 2.6 2.0 1.0 3.2 SC23_a 3.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.9 SC23_b 2.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.0 3.9 5.2 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.5 SC24_a 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.7 SC25_a 3.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.7 SC26_a 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 SC27_a 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 SC28_a 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2

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4. MODEL DEVELOPMENT

4.1 Sub-catchment delineation Sub-catchment delineation was performed using CatchmentSIM GIS software.

CatchmentSIM is a 3D-GIS topographic parameterisation and hydrologic analysis model. The model automatically delineates watershed and sub-catchment boundaries, generalises geophysical parameters and provides in-depth analysis tools to examine and compare the hydrologic properties of sub-catchments. The model also includes a flexible result export macro language to allow users to fully couple CatchmentSIM with any hydrologic modelling package that is based on sub-catchment networks.

For the purpose of this project, CatchmentSIM was used to delineate the catchment, break it up into numerous sub-catchments, determine their areas and provide routing lengths between them.

These outputs were manually checked to ensure they accurately represented the catchment. If any minor modifications were required these were made manually to the resulting model.

For more detailed information on CatchmentSIM see the CatchmentSIM Homepage www.toolkit.net.au/catchsim/

4.2 Hydstra Model A computer simulation model was developed using Hydstra Modelling. The sub- catchments, described in Figure 2-1, were represented by model “nodes” and connected together by “links”. A schematic of this model is displayed in Figure 4-1. The flow is routed between each sub-catchment, through the catchment via a channel routing function.

The rainfall and evaporation is calculated for each sub-catchment using inverse- distance gauge weighting. The gauge weights were automatically calculated at the start of each model run. The weighting is computed for the centroid of the sub- catchment. A quadrant system is drawn, centred on the centroid. A weight for the closest gauge in each quadrant is computed as the inverse, squared, distance between the gauge and centroid. For each time step and each node, the gauge weights are applied to the incoming rainfall and evaporation data.

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The AWBM Two Tap rainfall/runoff model (Parkyn & Wilson 1997) was used to calculate the runoff for each sub-catchment separately. This was chosen over the usual method of a single-tap AWBM model for the whole catchment as it allows better simulation of base flow recessions.

The flow is routed between each sub-catchment, through the catchment via a channel routing function.

Figure 4-1 Hydstra Model schematic

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4.3 AWBM Model The AWBM Two Tap model (Parkyn & Wilson 1997) is a relatively simple water balance model with the following characteristics:

• it has few parameters to fit,

• the model representation is easily understood in terms of the actual outflow hydrograph,

• the parameters of the model can largely be determined by analysis of the outflow hydrograph,

• the model accounts for partial area rainfall-run-off effects,

• runoff volume is relatively insensitive to the model parameters.

For these reasons parameters can more easily be transferred to ungauged catchments.

The AWBM routine used in this study is the Boughton Revised AWBM model (Boughton, 2003), which reduces the three partial areas and three surface storage capacities to relationships based on an average surface storage capacity.

Boughton & Chiew (2003) have shown that when using the AWBM model, the total amount of runoff is mainly affected by the average surface storage capacity and much less by how that average is spread among the three surface capacities and their partial areas. Given an average surface storage capacity (CapAve), the three partial areas and the three surface storage capacities are found by;

Table 4.1 Boughton & Chiew, AWBM surface storage parameters

Partial area of S1 A1=0.134

Partial area of S2 A2=0.433

Partial area of S3 A3=0.433

Capacity of S1 C1=(0.01*CapAve/A 1)=0.075*CapAve

Capacity of S2 C2=(0.33*CapAve/ A 2)=0.762*CapAve

Capacity of S3 C3=(0.66*CapAve/ A 3)=1.524*CapAve

To achieve a better fit of seasonal volumes, the normally constant store parameter CapAve has been made variable and assigned a seasonal profile. In order to avoid rapid changes in catchment characteristics between months, CapAves of consecutive months

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were smoothed. A CapAve of a given month was assumed to occur on the middle day of that month. It was assumed that daily CapAves occurring between consecutive monthly CapAves would fit to a straight line, and a CapAve for each day was calculated on this basis. The annual profile of CapAves for the catchment is shown in Figure 4-3.

The AWBM routine produces two outputs; direct run-off and base-flow. Direct run-off is produced after the content of any of the soil stores is exceeded; it can be applied to the stream network directly or by catchment routing across each subcatchment. Base-flow is usually supplied unrouted directly to the stream network, at a rate proportional to the water depth in the ground water store. The ground water store is recharged from a proportion of excess rainfall from the three surface soil storages.

Whilst the AWBM methodology incorporates an account of base-flow, it is not intended that the baseflow prediction from the AWBM model be adopted as an accurate estimate of the baseflow contribution. The base flow in the AWBM routine is based on a simple model and does not specifically account for attributes that affect baseflow such as geology and inter-catchment ground water transfers. During the model calibration the baseflow infiltration and recession parameters are used to ensure a reasonable fit with the observed surface water information.

The AWBM processes are shown in the following Figure 4-2;

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Figure 4-2 Two Tap Australian Water Balance Model schematic

4.3.1 Channel Routing A common method employed in nonlinear routing models is a power function storage relation.

S = K.Q n

K is a dimensional empirical coefficient, the reach lag (time). In the case of Hydstra/TSM Modelling:

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and

Li = Channel length (km)

α = Channel Lag Parameter

n = Non-linearity Parameter

Q = Outflow from Channel Reach (m3/s)

α A reach length factor may be used in the declaration of to account for varying reach lag α for individual channel reaches. eg. .fl where fl is a length factor.

Parameters required by Hydstra/TSM Modelling and their recommended bounds are:

Table 4.2 Hydstra/TSM Modelling Parameter Bounds

α Channel Lag Parameter Between 0.0 and 5.0

L Channel Length (km) Greater than 0.0 (km)

n Non-linearity Parameter Between 0.0 and 1.0

4.4 Model Calibration Calibration was achieved by adjusting catchment parameters so that the modelled data best replicates the record at the site selected for calibration (for information on this site, refer to Section 3.5). The best fit of parameters was achieved by comparing the monthly, seasonal and annual volumes over the entire calibration period, using regression statistics and using practitioner judgment when observing daily and monthly time series comparisons. It should be noted that during the calibration process matching of average long term monthly volumes (flows) was given the highest priority and matching of peak flood events and daily flows was given lower priority. Further discussion of the model calibration fit is given in 4.4.2.

As previously noted, there was no streamflow record available for the Detention River, and therefore the Model had to be calibrated solely to Black River flows.

The calibration process can best be understood as attempting to match the modelled calibration flow (MCF) to the observed flow record. The MCF can be described as:

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MCF = MNEM - (WE x TPRF)

Where: MCF = Modelled Calibration Flow MNEM = Modelled - No Entitlements (Modified). *

WE = Water Entitlements TPRF = Time Period Reduction Factor

* Refer to Glossary for additional explanation of these terms

In the Black River catchment, data from the period 01/10/1987 to 01/10/2007 was selected at Black River at South Forest (site 14213) for calibration.

Water entitlements were included in the calibration model and adjusted to the time period of calibration by applying a Time Period Reduction Factor (TPRF). The TPRF was calculated by a method developed in the Tasmanian State of the Environment report (1996). This states that water demand has increased by an average of 6% annually over the last 4 decades. However, following discussions with DPIW the TPRF was capped at 50 % of the current extractions if the mid year of the calibration period was earlier than 1995. In the Black River catchment, data from the period 01/10/1987 to 01/10/2007 was selected for calibration and accordingly a TPRF of 55.8 % was applied to all extractions as the mid year of the calibration period was deemed to be 1997.

The model was calibrated to the observed flow as stated in the formula MCF = MNEM - (WE x TPRF). Other options of calibration were considered, including adding the water entitlements to the observed flow. However, the chosen method is considered to be the better option as it preserves the observed flow and unknown quantities are not added to the observed record. The chosen method also preserves the low flow end of the calibration, as it does not assume that all water entitlements can be met at any time.

In the absence of information on daily patterns of extraction, the model assumes that water entitlements are extracted at a constant daily flow for each month. For each daily time step of the model if water entitlements cannot be met, the modelled outflows are restricted to a minimum value of zero and the remaining water required to meet the entitlement is lost. Therefore the MCF takes account of very low flow periods where the water entitlements demand can not be met by the flow in the catchment.

Table 4.4 shows the monthly water entitlements (demand) used in the model calibration

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upstream of the calibration site.

The adopted calibrated model parameters are shown in Table 4.3. These calibration parameters are adopted for all three scenarios in the user interface. Although it is acknowledged that some catchment characteristics such as land use and vegetation will have changed over time, it is assumed that the rainfall run-off response defined by these calibration parameters has not changed significantly over time and therefore it is appropriate to apply these parameters to all three scenarios.

As detailed in Section 4.3 to achieve a better fit of seasonal volumes, the normally constant store parameter CapAve has been made variable and assigned a seasonal profile. The annual profile of CapAve for the catchment is shown in the following table and graph.

Table 4.3 Adopted Calibration Parameters

PARAMETER VALUE PARAMETER VALUE INFBase 0.48 CapAve Jan 61 K1 0.96 CapAve Feb 61 K2 0.95 CapAve Mar 58 GWstoreSat 50 CapAve Apr 75 GWstoreMax 120 CapAve May 86 H_GW 55 CapAve Jun 113 EvapScaleF 1 CapAve July 138 Alpha 3 CapAve Aug 147 n 0.8 CapAve Sept 149 CapAve Oct 148 CapAve Nov 126 CapAve Dec 96

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160 140 CapeAve 120 100 80

CapAve 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 MONTH

Figure 4-3 Monthly Variation of CapAve parameter

Results of the calibration are shown in the plots and tables that follow in this section. In all comparisons the “Modelled Calibration Flow” (refer to previous description) has been compared against the observed flow at the calibration location.

Daily time series plots of three discrete calendar years (Figure 4-4 to Figure 4-6) have been displayed for the calibration location, showing a range of relatively low to high inflow years and a range of calibration fits. The general fit for each annual plot is described in the caption text. This indication is a visual judgement of the relative model performance for that given year compared to the entire observed record. There is also a goodness of fit statistic (R2) shown on each plot to assist in the judgement of the model performance.

The catchment average precipitation as input to the model is also displayed to provide a representation of the relative size of precipitation events through the year. Note that the precipitation trace is plotted on an offset, secondary scale.

The monthly time series, over the whole period of observed record, are plotted in Figure 4-7 and overall shows a good comparison between Modelled Calibration Flow and observed totals at the calibration location.

The monthly, seasonal and annual volume balances for the whole period of calibration record are presented in Figure 4-8 and

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Table 4.4. The demand values shown represent the adopted total water entitlements upstream of the calibration location, which in this case is small and accordingly have been multiplied by 50 for plotting purposes. The demand has been included to provide a general indication of the relative amount of water being extracted from the river.

14000 90 Precipitation Modelled Calibration Flow Observed R2 = 0.78 70 12000

50 10000 30

8000 10

6000 -10

-30 4000 -50

2000 -70

0 -90 01/89 02/89 03/89 04/89 05/89 06/89 07/89 08/89 09/89 10/89 11/89 12/89 01/90

Figure 4-4 Daily time series comparison (ML/d) – Black River - Good fit.

6000 50 Precipitation Modelled Calibration Flow Observed R2 = 0.78 30 5000

10 4000

-10 3000

-30

2000 -50

1000 -70

0 -90 01/93 02/93 03/93 04/93 05/93 06/93 07/93 08/93 09/93 10/93 11/93 12/93 01/94

Figure 4-5 Daily time series comparison (ML/d) – Black River – Good fit.

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4000 50 Precipitation Modelled Calibration Flow Observed R2 = 0.92

3500 30

3000 10

2500 -10 2000

-30 1500

-50 1000

500 -70

0 -90 01/04 02/04 03/04 04/04 05/04 06/04 07/04 08/04 09/04 10/04 11/04 12/04 01/05

Figure 4-6 Daily time series comparison (ML/d) – Black River – Good fit.

80000 Observed -Black River at South Forest Modelled Calibration Flow (MCF) R2 = 0.96 70000

60000

50000

40000

30000 Monthly Volume (ML)

20000

10000

0 1987 1988 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Figure 4-7 Monthly time series comparison – volume (ML)

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1400 Observed

1200 Modelled Calibration Flow (MCF) Scenario 1 - Modelled No 1000 Entitlements (Natural) Demand x50

800

600

400 Average Flow (ML/Day) AverageFlow

200

0 Jul Oct Jun Jan Apr Nov Mar Feb Aug Sep Dec May WINTER ANNUAL SUMMER Figure 4-8 Long term average monthly, seasonal and annual comparison plot

Table 4.4 Long term average monthly, seasonal and annual comparisons

Modelled- Scenario 1 MONTH Observed Calibration “Modelled -- Demand 1 No Entitlements Flow (MCF) (Natural)” January 103.39 102.06 102.70 0.64 February 73.20 73.64 74.28 0.64 March 48.94 48.86 49.50 0.64 April 165.30 166.24 166.88 0.64 May 349.73 351.55 356.63 5.28 June 666.86 672.74 678.05 5.28 July 997.59 984.47 989.77 5.28 August 1173.46 1169.50 1174.77 5.28 September 890.32 891.74 897.02 5.28 October 686.34 679.83 685.25 5.43 November 379.73 380.09 384.99 4.92 December 170.65 169.67 170.46 0.64 WINTER 794.05 791.64 796.92 5.31 SUMMER 156.87 156.76 158.14 1.35 ANNUAL 475.46 474.20 477.53 3.33 WINTER from May to Oct, SUMMER from Nov - Apr.

1 The demand value includes all extraction potential upstream of calibration site with a 55.8 % time period reduction factor applied.

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4.4.1 Factors affecting the reliability of the model calibration.

Regardless of the effort undertaken to prepare and calibrate a model, there are always factors which will limit the accuracy of the output. In preparation of this model the most significant limitations that affect the calibration accuracy are:

1. The assumption that water entitlements are taken as a constant rate for each month. Historically the actual extraction from the river would be much more variable than this and possess too many levels of complexity to be accurately represented in a model;

2. The current quantity of water extracted from the catchment is unknown. Although DPIW have provided water licence information (WIMS July 2007) and estimates of extractions in excess of these licences, these may not represent the true quantity of water extracted. No comprehensive continuous water use data is currently available;

3. The quality of the observed flow data (ratings and water level readings) used in the calibration may not be reliable for all periods. Even for sites where reliable data and ratings has been established the actual flow may still be significantly different to the observed (recorded) data, due to the inherent difficulties in recording accurate height data and rating it to flow. These errors typically increase in periods of low and high flows;

4. Misrepresentation of the catchment precipitation. This is due to insufficient rainfall gauge information in and around the catchment. Despite the Data DRILL’s good coverage of grid locations, the development of this grid information would still rely considerably on the availability of measured rainfall information in the region. This would also be the case with the evaporation data, which will have a smaller impact on the calibration;

5. The daily average timestep of the model may smooth out rainfall temporal patterns and have an effect on the peak flows. For example, intense rainfall events falling in a few hours will be represented as a daily average rainfall, accordingly reducing the peak flow;

6. The model does not explicitly account for changes in vegetation and terrain within individual sub-catchments. Effects due to vegetation and terrain are accounted for on catchment average basis, using the global AWBM fit parameters. Therefore individual sub-catchment run-off may not be accurately represented by the model’s

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global fit parameters. To account for this a much more detailed and complex model would be required.

4.4.2 Model Accuracy - Model Fit Statistics The following section is an additional assessment of how reliably the model predicts flow at the calibration site.

One of the most common measures of comparison between two sets of data is the coefficient of determination (R 2). If two data sets are defined as x and y, R 2 is the variance in y attributable to the variance in x. A high R 2 value indicates that x and y vary together – that is, the two data sets have a good correlation. In this case x and y are observed flow and modelled calibration flow. So for the catchment model, R 2 indicates how much the modelled calibration flow changes as observed flow changes. shows the R 2 values between observed and modelled daily and monthly flows, as well as the proportional difference (%) between long-term (20 years) observed and modelled calibration flow.

Table 4.5 Model Fit Statistics

Measure of Fit Black River (Site 14213)

Daily coefficient of determination (R 2 Value) 0.84 Monthly coefficient of determination (R 2 Value) 0.96 Difference in observed and estimated long term -0.26 % annual average flow

As previously mentioned the focus of the calibration process was to obtain a good correlation between monthly long term volumes (and flows) and lesser priority was given to daily correlations. However without a good simulation of daily flows, a good simulation of monthly flows would be difficult to achieve. A target R2 of 0.70 (or greater) was set for the daily flows and a target of R 2 of 0.85 (or greater) was set for monthly flows. It was deemed that these were acceptable targets considering the model limitations and potentials sources of error (refer to 4.4.1). A summary of comparative qualitative and statistical fit descriptions are provided in the following Table.

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Table 4.6 R2 Fit Description

Qualitative Fit Description Daily R 2 Monthly R 2

Poor R2 < 0.65 R2 < 0.8

Fair 0.65 ≥ R 2 > 0.70 0.8 ≥ R 2 > 0.85

Good R2 ≥ 0.70 R2 ≥ 0.85

It should be noted that although the R 2 value is a good indicator of correlation fit it was only used as a tool, to assist in visually fitting the hydrographs. One of the major limitations is that minor differences in the timing of hydrograph events can significantly affect the R2 value, although in practice a good calibration has been achieved.

Another indicator on the reliability of the calibration fit is the proportional difference between observed data and the modelled calibration flow (MCF), measured by percent (%). The proportional difference for the daily flows and monthly volumes were calculated and are presented in Figure 4-9 and Figure 4-10 in the form of a duration curve. These graphs show the percentage of time that a value is less than a specified bound. For example in Figure 4-9, 65% of the time the difference between the MCF and observed flow is less than 40 %. Similarly in Figure 4-10, for the All of Record trace, 70 % of the time the difference between the MCF monthly volume and observed volume is less than 30 %.

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200.0 All record Winter Summer 180.0

160.0

140.0

120.0

100.0

80.0 (%) - Observed vs Modelled (MCF) Observed (%)- vs Modelled 60.0

40.0 Difference 20.0

0.0

% % % % % % % % % 0% 5% 5% 0% 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 1 Percentage of time Difference is less than

Figure 4-9 Duration Curve – Daily flow percentage difference

140.0 All record Winter Summer

120.0

100.0

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40.0 (%) - Observed vs Modelled (MCF) Modelled vs Observed - (%) 20.0

Difference 0.0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percentage of time Difference is less than

Figure 4-10 Duration Curve – Monthly volume percentage difference

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Although these duration curves are an indicator of the reliability of the modelled data, they also have their limitations and should be used in conjunction with a visual assessment of the hydrograph fit in determining calibration reliability. One of the major limitations is that in periods of low flow, the percentage difference between observed and modelled can be large although the value is not significant. For example, a 1ML/day difference would show as a 200% difference if the observed flow was 0.5 ML/day. The duration curve graphs show three traces, the Summer 2, the Winter 3 and All of Record . The higher values, caused by the larger proportion of low flows, can be clearly seen in the Summer trace.

4.4.3 Model accuracy across the catchment The model has been calibrated to provide a good simulation for monthly and seasonal volumes at the calibration site. Calibration sites are typically selected low in the catchment to represent as much of the catchment as possible. How the reliability of this calibration translates to other specific locations within the catchment is difficult to accurately assess, however on average it would be expected that the model calibration would translate well to other locations within the catchment. The accuracy of the model in predicting monthly volumes at other locations has been analysed for five river catchments modelled as part of this project. The results of this assessment are summarised in Appendix A. These analyses suggest that on average the models predict volumes well across the catchment.

The fit of the hydrograph shape (daily flows) is expected to be more site specific and therefore it is predicted that the calibration fit of these will deteriorate as the catchment area decreases.

In the Black River catchment there is one other gauging site (New Haven Creek, site 14226) which can be used to assess the calibration fit at an alternative location. A plot of the monthly times series volumes and the corresponding R2 value is shown in Figure 4-11. The results show that the correlation between modelled and observed volumes at this site compares favourably with that of the calibration site.

2 Summer period = Nov to April. 3 Winter period = May to Oct.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Observed - New Haven Creek Modelled with entitlements (extracted) - SC3_a 3500.0 R2 = 0.91

3000.0

2500.0

2000.0

1500.0 Monthly Volume (ML) Volume Monthly 1000.0

500.0

0.0 01/84 01/85 01/86 01/87 01/88 01/89 01/90 01/91 01/92

Figure 4-11 Time Series of Monthly Volumes- Site 14226

In the absence of gauge data in the Detention River catchment, the model’s ability to predict flow volumes at different sites within this stream was ascertained by extrapolating flow data recorded at the calibration site. It was assumed that streamflow volume increased by the same proportion as catchment area. Thus if a calibration site has a subcatchment area A and a flow volume of Q A, and another site in the catchment has a subcatchment area B and a flow volume of Q B, then

QB = Q A.(B/A)

This assumption is crude, as it ignores rainfall variability and variability in water extractions within the catchment, and therefore it will not definitively demonstrate a model’s performance throughout the catchment. However, after discussion with DPIW, the method was included as a basic overview of the model’s ability to predict flow volumes throughout the catchment.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Comparison of scaled observed site and Detention River flow at SC 9_e

Subcatchment SC9_e in the Detention River Catchment was selected to compare flow volume at the Black River calibration site to the Detention River. The area ratio of sub- catchment SC9_e to the Black River observed data (site 14213) was calculated to be 20.3 %. The observed monthly volumes at the calibration site were multiplied by this ratio in order to calculate a proxy ‘observed’ record at the catchment outflow. The results are shown in the following plot. Considering the uncertainties in this methodology, the results appear reasonable.

Observed - Area Scaled - Black River at South Forest Modelled with entitlements (extracted) - SC9_e 18000.0 R2 = 0.93 16000.0

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0.0 01/87 01/88 01/89 01/90 01/91 01/92 01/93 01/94 01/95 01/96 01/97 01/98 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 Figure 4-12 Time Series of Monthly Volumes- SC 9_e

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

5. MODEL RESULTS

The completed model and user interface allows data for three catchment demand scenarios to be generated;

• Scenario 1 – No entitlements (Natural Flow)

• Scenario 2 – with Entitlements (with water entitlements extracted)

• Scenario 3 - Environmental Flows and Entitlements (Water entitlements extracted, however low priority entitlements are limited by an environmental flow threshold).

For each of the three scenarios, daily flow sequence, daily flow duration curves, and indices of hydrological disturbance can be produced at any sub-catchment location.

For information on the use of the user interface refer to the Operating Manual for the NAP Region Hydrological Models (Hydro Tasmania 2004).

Outputs of daily flow duration curves and indices of hydrological disturbance at the model calibration sites are presented below and in the following section. The outputs are a comparison of scenario 1 (No entitlements - Natural) and scenario 3 (environmental flows and entitlements) for period 01/01/1900 to 01/01/2007. Results have been produced at the calibration site, Black River at South Forest, site 14213.

10000.00

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100.00

10.00 Flow (ML/d)

1.00

0.10 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percent Of Time Exceeded

Figure 5-1 Daily Duration Curve

5.1.1 Indices of hydrological disturbance The calculation of the modeled flow estimates were used to calculate indices of

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

hydrological disturbance. These indices include:

• Index of Mean Annual Flow

• Index of Flow Duration Curve Difference

• Index of Seasonal Amplitude

• Index of Seasonal Periodicity

• Hydrological Disturbance Index

The indices were calculated using the formulas stated in the Natural Resource Management (NRM) Monitoring and Evaluation Framework developed by SKM for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDBC 08/04).

The following table shows the Hydrological Disturbance Indices at 3 locations within the catchment, comparing scenario 1 (No entitlements - Natural) and scenario 3 (environmental flows and entitlements) for period 01/01/1900 to 01/10/2007. Two sites in addition to the calibration site have been selected to give an indication of the variability of the indices of hydrological disturbance across the catchment.

Table 5.1 Hydrological Disturbance Indices

SC 1_j SC 1_a SC 9_g SC 9_d SC 11_a undisturbed Black SC 1_g Disturbance (High in the (Low in the (Mid (High in the (natural River (Mid Black Indices Black Detention Detention Detention flow) at catchment) South Catchment) Catchment) catchment) catchment) Forest Index of Mean Annual Flow, A 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.96 0.92 Index of Flow Duration Curve Difference, M 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.92 0.91 0.82 Index of Seasonal Amplitude, SA 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.91 0.90 0.79 Index of Seasonal Periodicity, SP 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Hydrological Disturbance Index, HDI 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.94 0.93 0.86

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Hydrological Disturbance Index: This provides an indication of the hydrological disturbance to the river’s natural flow regime. A value of 1 represents no hydrological disturbance, while a value approaching 0 represents extreme hydrological disturbance.

Index of Mean Annual Flow: This provides a measure of the difference in total flow volume between current and natural conditions. It is calculated as the ratio of the current and natural mean annual flow volumes and assumes that increases and reductions in mean annual flow have equivalent impacts on habitat condition.

Index of Flow Duration Curve Difference: The difference from 1 of the proportional flow deviation. Annual flow duration curves are derived from monthly data, with the index being calculated over 100 percentile points. A measure of the overall difference between current and natural monthly flow duration curves. All flow diverted would give a score of 0.

Index of Seasonal Amplitude: This index compares the difference in magnitude between the yearly high and low flow events under current and natural conditions. It is defined as the average of two current to natural ratios. Firstly, that of the highest monthly flows, and secondly, that of the lowest monthly flows based on calendar month means.

Index of Seasonal Periodicity: This is a measure of the shift in the maximum flow month and the minimum flow month between natural and current conditions. The numerical value of the month with the highest mean monthly flow and the numerical value of the month with the lowest mean monthly flow are calculated for both current and natural conditions. Then the absolute difference between the maximum flow months and the minimum flow months are calculated. The sum of these two values is then divided by the number of months in a year to get a percentage of a year. This percentage is then subtracted from 1 to give a value range between 0 and 1. For example a shift of 12 months would have an index of zero, a shift of 6 months would have an index of 0.5 and no shift would have an index of 1.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

6. FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

A flood frequency plot has been developed at the Black River at South Forest (site 14213). The plot shown below in Figure 6-1 consists of three traces:

1. Observed data. The annual maxima for this trace have been developed from continuous measured data at the site giving a better representation of the flood peak than the modelled daily average maxima. At the Black River at South Forest site in total 38 annual maxima values were available for this flood frequency analysis. The confidence limits on the plots represent the level of certainty of this observed dataset.

2. Modelled data (Scenario 3 - Environmental Flows & Entitlements) – same period as observed data. Note that the modelled annual maxima has been determined from a daily average flow dataset and accordingly does not represent the instantaneous flood maximum.

3. Modelled data (Scenario 3 - Environmental Flows & Entitlements) – whole period of record. Note that the modelled annual maxima have been determined from a daily average flow dataset and the period of record analysed is from 1900 to 2007.

The difference between flood peak frequency derived from recorded continuous flow data and flood peak frequency derived from modelled daily average flow can be obtained by comparing the first two traces as these relate to the same time period.

However, it should be noted that during the calibration process the highest priority was to achieve the best volume match between modelled and observed. As a result, the matching of flood peaks during calibration was of a lesser priority. Also the modelled flood peaks are based on daily (total) rainfall and accordingly these lack the temporal refinement to produce peaky outputs. That is, flood events are usually based on high intensity rainfall and this is not accurately captured using models and rainfall run on a daily time step.

These two factors do affect the accuracy of the modelled flood peaks used in the development of this flood frequency curve.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

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5% Confidence Limit

10000 95% Confidence Limit

1000 Observed Data Peak Discharge (ML/Day) Peak Discharge Modelled Data - Same period as observed data Modelled Data - Whole period of record

100 1.111 1.25 2 5 10 50 100

Annual Exceedence Probability (1:Y)

Figure 6-1 Modelled and Observed Flood Frequency Plot - Black River at South Forest (site 14213)

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

7. REFERENCES

Boughton, W.C. and Chiew, F.,(2003) Calibrations of the AWBM for use on Ungauged Catchments

CatchmentSIM Homepage www.toolkit.net.au/catchsim/ , December 2006

QNRM Silo (Drill Data) Homepage www.nrm.qld.gov.au/silo , January 2005

SKM (2003) Estimating Available Water in Catchments in Catchments Using Sustainable Diversion Limits. Farm Dam Surface Area and Volume relationship, report to DSE, Draft B October 2003

Hydrology Theme Summary of Pilot Audit Technical Report – Sustainable Rivers Audit. MDBC Publication 08/04.

National Land and Water Resources Audit (NLWRA) www.audit.ea.gov.au/anra/water/ ; January 2005.

Hydro Tasmania internal report, (2004) South Esk River Catchment Above Macquarie River, Impact of Water Entitlements on Water and Hydro Power Yield.

Hydro Tasmania, (2005), NAP Region Hydrological Model, North Esk Catchment.

Hydro Tasmania (2004). Operating Manual for the NAP region Hydrological Models. Hydro Report 118783 – Report -015, 17 September 2004.

Neal B, Nathan RJ, Schreider S, & Jakeman AJ. 2002, Identifying the separate impact of farm dams and land use changes on catchment yield. Aust J of Water Resources, IEAust,; 5(2):165-176.

Parkyn R & Wilson D, (1997): Real-Time Modelling of the Tributary Inflows to ECNZ's Waikato Storages. 24th Hydrology & Water Resources Symposium Proceedings IEAust, Auckland NZ 1997.

State of the Environment Report, Tasmania, Volume 1 Conditions & Trends 1996. State of Environment Unit, Lands Information Services, DELM.

SKM (2005) Development and Application of a Flow Stress Ranking Procedure, report to Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

7.1 Personal Communications Graham, B. Section Head, Ecohydrology, Water Assessment, DPIW. Oct 2007.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

8. GLOSSARY

Coefficient of determination (R 2): One of the most common measures of comparison between two sets of data is the coefficient of determination (R 2). If two data sets are defined as x and y, R 2 is the variance in y attributable to the variance in x. A high R 2 value indicates that x and y vary together – that is, the two data sets have a good correlation

High priority entitlements: Water entitlements with an assigned Surety 1 to 3.

Low priority entitlements: Water entitlements with an assigned Surety 4 to 8.

Modelled – No entitlements (Natural) : The TimeStudio surface water model run in a natural state. That is, all references to water entitlements have been set to zero. Additionally any man made structures such as dams, power stations and diversions have been omitted and the modelled flow is routed, uncontrolled through the catchment. This is also referred to as Scenario 1.

Modelled – No entitlements (Modified) : The TimeStudio surface water model run with no water entitlements extracted. That is, all references to water entitlements have been set to zero. Where human structures are identified that significantly affect the flow regime, such as large dams, power stations and diversions, the TimeStudio model contains custom code to estimate the flow effect on the downstream subareas. This custom code takes effect from the completion date of the structure. Where there are no significant human structures in the catchment or the model is run before the completion of these structures this model will produce the same output as “Modelled – No entitlements (Natural)”. This option is not available within the user interface and is one of several inputs used to derive a modelled flow specifically for calibration purposes. It is also referred to as MNEM in Section 4.4.

Modelled – with entitlements (extracted): The TimeStudio surface water model with water entitlements removed from the catchment flow. Where human structures are identified within a catchment that significantly affect the flow regime, such as large dams, power stations and diversions, the TimeStudio model contains custom code to estimate the flow effect on the downstream sub-catchments. This custom code takes effect from the completion date of the structure. This is also referred to as Scenario 2.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Modelled – environmental flows and entitlements (extracted ): The TimeStudiosurface water model with water entitlements removed. However, low priority entitlements are only removed when sub-catchment flow exceeds a specified environmental threshold. Where man made structures are identified within a catchment, such as dams, power stations and diversions the TimeStudio model contains code to estimate the flow effect on the downstream subcatchments, commencing on the completion date of the structure. This is also referred to as Scenario 3.

Time Period Reduction Factor (TPRF): A reduction factor applied to current levels of water extracted from a catchment. The TPRF was applied to satisfy the assumption that the amount of water extracted from Tasmanian catchments (e.g. for agriculture) has increased over time. The TPRF was calculated by a method developed in the Tasmanian State of the Environment report. This states that water demand has increased by an average of 6% annually over the last 4 decades. This factor is applied to current water entitlements to provide a simple estimate of water entitlements historically. However, following discussions with DPIW the TPRF was capped at 50% of the current extractions if the mid year of the calibration period was earlier than 1995.

Water entitlements: This refers generally to the potential water extraction from the catchment. Included are licensed extractions documented in WIMS (July 2007) estimates of additional unlicensed extractions and estimates of unlicensed farm dams. Unless specified otherwise, Hydro Tasmania dams and diversions are not included.

WIMS (July 2007): The Department Primary Industries and Water, Water Information Management System, updated to July 2007.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

APPENDIX A

This appendix investigates the reliability of the catchment models at predicting river flow throughout the catchment. One of the difficulties in assessing model reliability is the lack of observed data, as there is often only one reliable gauging site within the catchment. Five catchments that do have more than one gauging site and concurrent periods of record were selected and investigated with the results presented in Table A-1. The analysis undertaken is outlined below.

• The relationship between catchment area of the calibration site (primary site) and the secondary site was determined. Good variability is represented within this selection, with the secondary site catchment area ranging between 6.6% and 41.5% of the calibration site.

• The catchment area relationship was used to derive a time series at the secondary site based on scaled observed data from the calibration site. This was used in subsequent analysis to assess the suggestion that an area scaled time series, derived from a primary site was a good representation of sub- catchment flow in the absence of a secondary gauging site.

• For concurrent periods, estimated monthly volumes (ML) were extracted at both the calibration site and the secondary site.

• R2 values were calculated on the following data sets for concurrent periods:

o Correlation A: The correlation between the calibration site observed data and calibration site modelled data . This provides a baseline value at the calibration site for comparison against the other correlations.

o Correlation B: The correlation between the calibration site observed data (which has been reduced by area) and secondary site observed data . This shows the relationship of area scaled estimates as a predictor of sub-catchment flows, in this case by comparison with a secondary gauge.

o Correlation C: The correlation between the calibration site observed data (which has been reduced by area) and secondary site modelled data . This compares modelled data with an area scaled data set derived from observed data. This has been done because in the absence of a gauging site, observed data from another site is often

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

assumed as a good indication of flow within the sub-catchment (Correlation B addresses this assumption). Where this assumption is applied, this correlation provides a statistical comparison of the models ability to predict comparable volumes to that of an area scaled estimate.

o Correlation D: The correlation between the secondary site observed data and secondary site modelled data . This has been done to assess how well the calibration undertaken at the primary site directly translates to other sub-catchments within the model.

The catchment model has been calibrated to provide a good fit for monthly and seasonal volumes at the calibration site. Calibration sites are typically selected low in the catchment to represent as much of the catchment as possible. Therefore the calibration fit parameters on average are expected to translate well to other sub- catchments. However, where individual sub-catchments vary significantly in terrain or vegetation or rainfall compared to the catchment average, errors are expected to be greater. The analysis undertaken in this section appears to confirm that the models perform acceptably and the conclusions of this analysis are summarised below:

1. Four of the five catchments studied showed fair to good R2 values between observed and modelled data at the secondary site. (Correlation D).

2. The George secondary site was the worst performing in the study with a fair R2 value of 0.83. It is expected that this is due to localised changes in terrain, vegetation and/or rainfall. This is a known limitation of the model and is therefore expected in some cases.

3. Scaling the calibration site observed data by area to derive a data set at another location is not recommended. Area scaled data does not consistently out perform the model at predicting flow/volumes within catchment. It is demonstrated that the model does (in the majority of cases) a good job of directly predicting the flow/volumes within catchment.

Time Series plots of the monthly volumes in megalitres for the five catchments studied in this section are shown in Figure A-1 to Figure A-5. These plots show that generally the calibration fit at the primary site translates well as a direct model output at other locations within the catchment, when modelling monthly volumes.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Observed - Forth a/b Lemonthyme Site 450 140000 Site 450 - Modelled - with entitlements Observed- Scaled Forth at Paloona Bdg - site 386 120000

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60000 Monthly Volume (ML) Volume Monthly 40000

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0 1963 1964 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968

Figure A-1 Forth catchment – monthly volumes at secondary site.

Observed - Ransom Rv Site 2217 5000 Site 2217 Modelled - with entitlements Observed - Scaled George at WS site 2205 4500

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0 1983 1984 1987 1989

Figure A-2 George catchment – monthly volumes at secondary site.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Observed - Leven at Mayday Rd - Site 821 20000 Site 821 Modelled - with entitlements 18000 Observed- Scaled Leven at Bannons site 14207

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Monthly Volume (ML) Volume Monthly 6000

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0 1983 1984 1987 1989 1991 1993

Figure A-3 Leven catchment – monthly volumes at secondary site.

Observed - Swan u/s Hardings F - Site 2219 Site 2219 Modelled - with entitlements 16000 Observed - Scaled Swan at Grange site 2200

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6000 Monthly Volume (ML) Volume Monthly 4000

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0 1983 1984 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Figure A-4 Swan catchment – monthly volumes at secondary site.

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Observed - Montagu at Togari - Site 14216 Site 14216 Modelled - with entitlements 20000 Observed- Scaled Monatgu at Montagu Rd Brg - Site 14200

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Monthly Volume (ML) Volume Monthly 6000

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0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988 1989 1990

Figure A-5 Montagu catchment – monthly volumes at secondary site.

Detention and Black Rivers Surface Water Model Hydro Tasmania Version No: FINAL 1.0

Table A-1 Model performance at secondary sites

Catchme Calibration Site Secondary Site Correlation A Correlation B Correlation C Correlation D nt Primary Site

Name Site Name Sub- Catchment Concurrent Site Name & Sub- Catchment Catchment Monthly ML Monthly ML Monthly ML Monthly ML

& No. Catchment Area data No. Catchment Area area factor 2 2 2 2 Location periods Location (compared R Value R Value R Value R Value Km 2 Km 2 used in with Calibration site Secondary site Calibration site Secondary this calibration observed vs observed vs observed(scale site observed analysis site) Calibration site Calibration site d) vs Modelled vs Modelled modelled observed (scaled) Forth Forth at SC33 1079.6 01/01/1963 Forth River SC31 310.2 0.2873 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.97 Paloona to above Bridge – 01/03/1969 Lemonthyme Site 386 – site 450 George George SC2 397.9 01/03/1983 Ransom Rv SC3 26.1 0.0656 0.91 0.96 0.86 0.83 River at SH to at Sweet Hill WS – Site 01/10/1990 – Site 2217 2205 Leven Leven at SC4 496.4 01/04/1983 Leven at SC6 37.5 0.0755 0.93 0.87 0.88 0.92 Bannons to Mayday Rd – Bridge – 01/09/1994 site 821 Site14207 Swan Swan River SC20 465.9 01/07/1983 Swan River SC4 35.6 0.0764 0.92 0.95 0.82 0.85 at Grange – to u/s Hardings Site 2200 01/10/1996 Falls – site 2219 Montagu Montagu at SC3 325.9 01/01/1985 Montagu at SC2 135.4 0.4155 0.98 0.98 0.95 0.94 Montagu to Togari – Site Rd Brdge – 01/01/1990 14216 Site 14200