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Madison Moore, Ja'diyah Shamsiddin, Faith Montgomery

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Madison Moore, Ja'diyah Shamsiddin, Faith Montgomery 1 Madison Moore, Ja’Diyah Shamsiddin, Faith Montgomery First Draft Essay COM 490 Impeachment Impact: The Effect of the Impeachment Trials on the Presidential Race We all heard the headlines -- Ukraine, a phone call, aid, and investigation. The impeachment trials dominated the news cycle for a significant portion of this primary election cycle. The hyper-partisan nature of the issue has not only contributed to differing political narratives, it potentially affected the election. Three of the major candidates running were senators, including Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. More importantly, the presumptive front-runner (RealClearPolitics, 2020) former Vice President Joe Biden, did not hold a seat in the Senate at this point, freeing him from the cumbersome impeachment trials along with Washington outsider Pete Buttigieg. Arguably, the multitasking of the senators served as a massive advantage for the former Vice President as any given candidate could potentially hold a dozen or so events each day on the campaign trail. Even New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, a former Democratic presidential candidate, described the impact the trials would have as a “big, big blow” (Aljazeera, 2020). However, the headstart Biden received in Iowa did not help but hurt him. Joe Biden has been in the political scene decades since some of younger voters were even born. He served two recent consecutive terms as Vice President under President Barack Obama. His name recognition is sky high with less than 1% of those surveyed unable to recognize him by name (Morning Consult, 2020). Since he announced his bid for the presidency, he has been the presumptive frontrunner (RealClearPolitics, 2020), placing first in most national polls. However, 2 Joe Biden is also 77 years old and will turn 78 on November 20, 2020, just 17 days after the presidential election. He would not only be the oldest president ever elected, but he would also arguably be the most at risk for both mental and physical health issues. The average male life expectancy in the United States is 78.69 years (World Bank, 2020). Assuming Biden lives two years past the average life expectancy mark, he would only survive into the third year of his presidency. Moreover, as data shows, the steady then rapid decline of one's mental capacities often presents itself around these ages, if folks are lucky enough to live that long (Stibich, Ph.D., 2020). As Joe Biden continued to speak at town halls and rallies, he made one thing astonishingly clear: he is not up to the task of Commander in Chief. Biden’s time on the campaign trail has produced a string of aggressive, bizarre, and untruthful statements that call into question his ability not only to engage with the public but to face modest challenges with competency and clarity. Beginning in December, Biden began demonstrating his lack of ability to respond to criticism without insult. On December fifth, a voter asked Biden to explain his son’s involvement with oil companies in Ukraine. Biden calls the man “a damn liar,” “fat,” and challenges him to a pushup contest (NBC News, 2020). The next day, he told a young voter concerned about fracking to “vote for someone else” (KCCI, 2020). As his nerves seemed to wear thin, Biden snapped on a reporter questioning his attack on Sanders, waving his hands and quickly approaching, Biden exclaimed, “Why?! Why?! Why?! Why?! Why?! Why?! Why?!” seemingly mocking the reporter and telling him to “calm down.” This proved only the beginning of his combative approach to winning over voters on the campaign trail. 3 Biden’s campaign of chaos reached its crescendo on February ninth when a twenty-one-year-old woman asked him, “How do you explain the performance in Iowa? And why should the voters believe that you can win the national election?” (Washington Post, 2020). Biden asked the woman if she had ever been to a caucus. She nodded affirmatively. He then responded, “No you haven’t. You’re a lying dog-faced pony soldier. You gotta be honest.” This bizarre insult quickly snowballed into the takeaway viral moment of the New Hampshire primaries. Every major and minor news outlet in America, and even a few in the UK and Australia, had their take on the wonky exchange. The clip received ruthless mockery at Biden’s expense from Stephen Colbert, Trevor Noah, and was even retweeted by the President’s son, Donald Trump Jr. with the caption, “If he can’t handle a question from one of his own supporters, how can Joe Biden possibly take on Donald Trump one on one for six months? #NewHampshirePrimary” (Global News California, 2020). More importantly, the exchange had serious implications for his viability as a candidate. It called into question his competency and mental fitness by highlighting previous frustrated ramblings with voters that otherwise gone largely unnoticed by the larger public. In fact, immediately following the insult, Biden lost, for the first and only time, his frontrunner position in the national polls to another candidate, Bernie Sanders (RealClearPolitics, 2020). The very same day he uttered the insult he dropped a full three points in the national polls. In the week immediately following as the student’s negative response was covered by the media, and he emerged with a dismal fifth-place finish in New Hampshire, earning zero delegates, Biden proceeded to plummet another 5.2 points in the national polls, constituting the most precipitous, continuous decline of any candidate in the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries 4 (RealClearPolitics, 2020). While the outburst was followed by a period of relatively minimal showings from Biden, it didn't take long before he was back at the insult game with voters. While some may say the course interactions serve as a testament to his tenacity as a candidate, the overarching perception of these interactions has largely been to his detriment. Biden has continually framed himself as the anti-Trump candidate, promising a return to normalcy and civility under his presidency (Vox, 2019). However, his seemingly unnecessary combative approach to engaging voters has only served to bolster the notion that he is more “Trumpian” than advertised. As one contributor to The Guardian put it, “Go home Joe Biden: you may not be drunk, but you are certainly acting like it” (The Guardian, 2020). The trend that seems to have emerged is the more exposure Joe Biden receives on the campaign trail, the worse he faires in the polls. Consequently, the impeachment trials which simply occupied his opponents and freed up his campaign schedule, seem to have only facilitated his precipitous downfall. Announcing her 2020 presidential bid in February of 2019, Senator of Massachusetts Elizabeth Ann Warren shocked the globe. Not many people knew who Warren was or what she stood for, but she quickly became a top favorite among American constituents. Young Democratic voters were eager to rally behind a progressive candidate who vowed to fight for “big structural change.” While young Democrats were drawn to Warren, many older party members were hesitant to offer her their support. Many senior Democrats believed that Warren was too radical which sparked ambivalence towards the candidate, but young voters were still rooting for her. However, as the race continued, Warren’s electability was continuously called into question. Blatant sexism, racism, and the exposure of Warren’s GOP past plagued the media 5 which consequently caused the candidate to experience backlash. Whilst Warren’s campaign worked diligently to change the narrative about her electability, another huge issue became more prevalent. Many began to address the elephant in the room, can a senator run for president? When it comes to electability, most of us would readily agree that a candidate with a senatorial past would be perfectly capable of having a successful campaign. Yet, a candidate who maintains their role as a senator during the time of their presidential run, certainly amid impeachment trials, would find it increasingly difficult to have a victorious campaign. While this question was not exclusively limited to Warren, being that she was not the only senator in the presidential race, her senatorial status had major effects on her campaign. In past discussions of President Donald Trump’s impeachment, a controversial issue has been how Elizabeth Warren’s role as a senator during the trials made her campaign extremely vulnerable and more susceptible to failure. Occupied by the Impeachment Trials, Warren suffered a massive disadvantage when it came to time which inherently made it harder for her to secure the Democratic nomination. An impeachment trial does not allow for campaign events to be a priority (Kilgore 2019). The Senate rules require that once a trial begins, it shall remain in session for six days a week, making it so that the Senators completely devote their time to the impeachment trials. These rules consequently gave senators less time to campaign. Warren was consistently flying back and forth to campaign events, interviews, and back to Washington to convene with her fellow Senators, which hindered the success of her presidential bid. While the impeachment trials served as a major obstacle for the senators in the presidential race, it was simultaneously a boost for non-senators — particularly Joe Biden. Biden used this period to disclose the lessons he learned about impeachment during his 44 years as a member of the Upper 6 Chamber (Kilgore 2019) which showcased his political intelligence and boosted his popularity among older voters. While it is certain that Warren wanted to devote more time to her campaign, one could assume that the damages were not as important to her as Trump’s impeachment.
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