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Madison Moore, Ja’Diyah Shamsiddin, Faith Montgomery

First Draft Essay

COM 490

Impeachment Impact: The Effect of the Impeachment Trials on the Presidential Race

We all heard the headlines -- Ukraine, a phone call, aid, and investigation. The impeachment trials dominated the news cycle for a significant portion of this primary election cycle. The hyper-partisan nature of the issue has not only contributed to differing political narratives, it potentially affected the election. Three of the major candidates running were senators, including of Minnesota, of Vermont, and Elizabeth

Warren of Massachusetts. More importantly, the presumptive front-runner (RealClearPolitics,

2020) former Vice President , did not hold a seat in the Senate at this point, freeing him from the cumbersome impeachment trials along with Washington outsider Pete Buttigieg.

Arguably, the multitasking of the senators served as a massive advantage for the former Vice

President as any given candidate could potentially hold a dozen or so events each day on the campaign trail. Even New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, a former Democratic presidential candidate, described the impact the trials would have as a “big, big blow” (Aljazeera, 2020).

However, the headstart Biden received in Iowa did not help but hurt him.

Joe Biden has been in the political scene decades since some of younger voters were even born. He served two recent consecutive terms as Vice President under President Barack Obama.

His name recognition is sky high with less than 1% of those surveyed unable to recognize him by name (Morning Consult, 2020). Since he announced his bid for the presidency, he has been the presumptive frontrunner (RealClearPolitics, 2020), placing first in most national polls. However, 2

Joe Biden is also 77 years old and will turn 78 on November 20, 2020, just 17 days after the presidential election. He would not only be the oldest president ever elected, but he would also arguably be the most at risk for both mental and physical health issues. The average male life expectancy in the United States is 78.69 years (World Bank, 2020). Assuming Biden lives two years past the average life expectancy mark, he would only survive into the third year of his presidency. Moreover, as data shows, the steady then rapid decline of one's mental capacities often presents itself around these ages, if folks are lucky enough to live that long (Stibich, Ph.D.,

2020). As Joe Biden continued to speak at town halls and rallies, he made one thing astonishingly clear: he is not up to the task of Commander in Chief.

Biden’s time on the campaign trail has produced a string of aggressive, bizarre, and untruthful statements that call into question his ability not only to engage with the public but to face modest challenges with competency and clarity. Beginning in December, Biden began demonstrating his lack of ability to respond to criticism without insult. On December fifth, a voter asked Biden to explain his son’s involvement with oil companies in Ukraine. Biden calls the man “a damn liar,” “fat,” and challenges him to a pushup contest (NBC News, 2020). The next day, he told a young voter concerned about fracking to “vote for someone else” (KCCI,

2020). As his nerves seemed to wear thin, Biden snapped on a reporter questioning his attack on

Sanders, waving his hands and quickly approaching, Biden exclaimed, “Why?! Why?! Why?!

Why?! Why?! Why?! Why?!” seemingly mocking the reporter and telling him to “calm down.”

This proved only the beginning of his combative approach to winning over voters on the campaign trail. 3

Biden’s campaign of chaos reached its crescendo on February ninth when a twenty-one-year-old woman asked him, “How do you explain the performance in Iowa? And why should the voters believe that you can win the national election?” (Washington Post, 2020).

Biden asked the woman if she had ever been to a caucus. She nodded affirmatively. He then responded, “No you haven’t. You’re a lying dog-faced pony soldier. You gotta be honest.” This bizarre insult quickly snowballed into the takeaway viral moment of the New Hampshire primaries. Every major and minor news outlet in , and even a few in the UK and

Australia, had their take on the wonky exchange. The clip received ruthless mockery at Biden’s expense from Stephen Colbert, Trevor Noah, and was even retweeted by the President’s son,

Donald Trump Jr. with the caption, “If he can’t handle a question from one of his own supporters, how can Joe Biden possibly take on one on one for six months?

#NewHampshirePrimary” (Global News California, 2020).

More importantly, the exchange had serious implications for his viability as a candidate.

It called into question his competency and mental fitness by highlighting previous frustrated ramblings with voters that otherwise gone largely unnoticed by the larger public. In fact, immediately following the insult, Biden lost, for the first and only time, his frontrunner position in the national polls to another candidate, Bernie Sanders (RealClearPolitics, 2020). The very same day he uttered the insult he dropped a full three points in the national polls. In the week immediately following as the student’s negative response was covered by the media, and he emerged with a dismal fifth-place finish in New Hampshire, earning zero delegates, Biden proceeded to plummet another 5.2 points in the national polls, constituting the most precipitous, continuous decline of any candidate in the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries 4

(RealClearPolitics, 2020). While the outburst was followed by a period of relatively minimal showings from Biden, it didn't take long before he was back at the insult game with voters.

While some may say the course interactions serve as a testament to his tenacity as a candidate, the overarching perception of these interactions has largely been to his detriment.

Biden has continually framed himself as the anti-Trump candidate, promising a return to normalcy and civility under his presidency (Vox, 2019). However, his seemingly unnecessary combative approach to engaging voters has only served to bolster the notion that he is more

“Trumpian” than advertised. As one contributor to The Guardian put it, “Go home Joe Biden: you may not be drunk, but you are certainly acting like it” (The Guardian, 2020). The trend that seems to have emerged is the more exposure Joe Biden receives on the campaign trail, the worse he faires in the polls. Consequently, the impeachment trials which simply occupied his opponents and freed up his campaign schedule, seem to have only facilitated his precipitous downfall.

Announcing her 2020 presidential bid in February of 2019, Senator of Massachusetts

Elizabeth Ann Warren shocked the globe. Not many people knew who Warren was or what she stood for, but she quickly became a top favorite among American constituents. Young

Democratic voters were eager to rally behind a progressive candidate who vowed to fight for

“big structural change.” While young Democrats were drawn to Warren, many older party members were hesitant to offer her their support. Many senior Democrats believed that Warren was too radical which sparked ambivalence towards the candidate, but young voters were still rooting for her. However, as the race continued, Warren’s electability was continuously called into question. Blatant sexism, racism, and the exposure of Warren’s GOP past plagued the media 5 which consequently caused the candidate to experience backlash. Whilst Warren’s campaign worked diligently to change the narrative about her electability, another huge issue became more prevalent. Many began to address the elephant in the room, can a senator run for president?

When it comes to electability, most of us would readily agree that a candidate with a senatorial past would be perfectly capable of having a successful campaign. Yet, a candidate who maintains their role as a senator during the time of their presidential run, certainly amid impeachment trials, would find it increasingly difficult to have a victorious campaign. While this question was not exclusively limited to Warren, being that she was not the only senator in the presidential race, her senatorial status had major effects on her campaign.

In past discussions of President Donald Trump’s impeachment, a controversial issue has been how Elizabeth Warren’s role as a senator during the trials made her campaign extremely vulnerable and more susceptible to failure. Occupied by the Impeachment Trials, Warren suffered a massive disadvantage when it came to time which inherently made it harder for her to secure the Democratic nomination. An impeachment trial does not allow for campaign events to be a priority (Kilgore 2019). The Senate rules require that once a trial begins, it shall remain in session for six days a week, making it so that the Senators completely devote their time to the impeachment trials. These rules consequently gave senators less time to campaign. Warren was consistently flying back and forth to campaign events, interviews, and back to Washington to convene with her fellow Senators, which hindered the success of her presidential bid. While the impeachment trials served as a major obstacle for the senators in the presidential race, it was simultaneously a boost for non-senators — particularly Joe Biden. Biden used this period to disclose the lessons he learned about impeachment during his 44 years as a member of the Upper 6

Chamber (Kilgore 2019) which showcased his political intelligence and boosted his popularity among older voters. While it is certain that Warren wanted to devote more time to her campaign, one could assume that the damages were not as important to her as Trump’s impeachment.

Throughout her campaign, she maintained that Trump’s impeachment is “bigger than politics”

(Jamerson 2020).

In addition to the Impeachment trials costing Warren the luxury of time, the candidate struggled to combat assumptions made about her in the media. More specifically, Warren struggled to address her past as a Republican. In many years prior to becoming a politician, the woman leading the progressive wing of the Democratic party was a hard right-wing

Conservative (Thompson 2019). Individuals from Elizabeth Warren’s past came forward and began to expose the candidate for her hypocritical statements during her presidential run. It is no secret that the main component of Warren’s campaign was fighting against big businesses. Yet, during her time as a conservative, the candidate was a true believer in free markets. Many constituents found it hard to support a candidate that made such a dramatic switch. They wondered how one could convert from a diehard supporter of free markets to a

“business-bashing enforcer of fair markets” (Thompson 2019). Despite this news, many constituents remained in support of Warren. They believed that her willingness to change directly aligned with the premise of her campaign.

Other constituents began to shift away from Warren and look to other candidates, such as

Bernie Sanders, another progressive candidate — who has a history of consistency. Warren has acknowledged her Republican past before, but she often attempts to avoid the topic or lessen the severity of the concern (Thompson 2019). This strategy of avoidance essentially hurt her 7 campaign and her ability to gather minority voters. However, Warren attempted to compensate for this mishap by promising to help Black America eradicate the wealth gap; this attempt seemed to be unsuccessful. Warren’s promises to empower were undercut by her reputation as a republican. One could assume that Warren simply did not have enough time to dedicate to the naysayers due to the impeachment trials, which ultimately led many to question her viability as a candidate and a lack of support from Black voters.

Moreover, the Impeachment Trials could have killed Warren’s candidacy. The Trials essentially shaped how everything relevant to her campaign was handled. Her campaign events, strategies, and rhetoric were all impacted by the Impeachment of Donald Trump. Once a front-runner of the 2020 Presidential candidates, Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the race in

March of 2020. Many argued that with Warren exiting the race, authenticity lost. Others disagree. It is unclear why voters were not as drawn to Warren as they were the other candidates, but one could infer that the Impeachment Trials played a part in her demise. Warren could not devote all of her time to the success of her campaign, which ultimately left her disadvantaged.

So, can a senator run for president? Examining Warren’s campaign, one could argue it is just not possible. However, the true answer will be revealed if Senator Bernie Sanders is victorious.

As one of the senators on the campaign trail in the 2020 democratic primary, Bernie

Sanders faced challenges to his campaign that would not have been prevalent if he held a different job title. Sanders was absent from his own campaign events the week leading up to the caucus and left surrogates in his place to speak to the large crowds he pulled. At one event in

Clive, IA, the Sanders campaign event with Bon Iver reached capacity at around 2,500 people, according to The Nation’s article. This Sanders event had speeches by the National Nurses 8

United Co-President Jean Ross, filmmaker , Co-Chair of the Sanders Presidential

Campaign Nina Turner, and the candidate’s wife Jane Sanders. The event held a phone call with the candidate where he spoke to the crowd for 11 minutes. Following the phone call with

Sanders, the event had a panel moderated by Des Moines School Board Member Dionna

Langford featuring Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, and

Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal. Jane Sanders then came out and delivered the main speech of the night before Bon Iver took the stage. There were a full three hours and two minutes of program before the headliner came on stage and played for 35 minutes. This setup was not uncommon for Senator Sanders on the campaign trail, for two days later in Cedar Rapids,

Sanders held a similar event where he drew a crowd of three thousand people to his campaign event with Grammy-winning band Vampire Weekend (CBS 2). However, Sanders was able to attend the Vampire Weekend event since the impeachment trials were on pause at this time

(check official wording). The ground campaign of the Sanders event did not seem to be affected by his absence due to the impeachment trials which could be because of his free concert campaign events. The other candidates on the trail did not offer entertainment besides their own speech or the speeches of other politicians, like former Secretary of State John Kerry who accompanied Joe Biden in North Liberty, Iowa. However, at these events, the names of the additional speakers were not publicized, so the crowds did not know who else would be speaking beside the candidate. Sanders’ events, however, promoted the campaign events by marketing the night as Bernie Sanders’ Caucus Concert with Bon Iver. For events that were not marketed as concerts, the events on the Des Moines Register candidate tracker mentioned what prominent figures would also be in attendance. Of the main six candidates in Iowa, only Elizabeth Warren 9 also promoted the speakers who would accompany her through the candidate tracker. The rest of the candidates’events simply said “community event” or “rally.” The turnout for Sanders’ campaign events was much higher than those of his opponents, though it is not certain whether the large crowds came for the candidate himself or the entertainment that came along with the event. One NBC article pointed this out in their headline: “With live music and booze, Sanders draws massive crowd to party-like Iowa campaign rally.” The Sanders events drew the largest crowds in Iowa, but they were also the only events providing entertainment besides the Super

Bowl party held by Amy Klobuchar. Sanders’ numbers only grew when the campaign shifted efforts to New Hampshire. The Post estimates that over 7,500 Sanders supporters showed up to his Monday night campaign event the night before the primary. The New York

Post writes that Sanders’ turnout “may have been aided by a performance from rock band The

Strokes” (Bowden). The only presidential candidate seeming to compete with Sanders was incumbent Trump who drew 12,000 to Manchester and at least 7,152 to Des Moines (Bowden and Des Moines Register). According to Joshua Dyck’s article on insurgent candidates, “We ​ ​ demonstrate that, at least in the case of the Trump and Sanders campaigns, support for these candidates was largely a product of underlying distrust in government” (Dyck et al). Because of this distrust, voters are less likely to vote for “establishment” candidates like Joe Biden (Dyck et al).

Based on numbers alone, the Sanders campaign did not seem to be affected on the ground in Iowa at least in the few days leading up to the caucuses. However, the senator also lost valuable time earlier in the campaign season also due to the impeachment trial. The trial itself took place from January 16 to February 5. Ben Jacobs of the New York Magazine wrote, “The 10 first day of arguments, scheduled for Tuesday (Jan. 21), will be less than two weeks before the

Iowa caucuses. It is a time when senators would normally skip votes to campaign. Instead, they will be legally compelled to be back in D.C.” According to , Bernie Sanders said at a campaign rally in early January, “Between you and me I’d rather be here in Iowa, but I have a constitutional responsibility, which I accept as a United States senator, to be a juror in

Trump’s impeachment trial.” As written in an article by Alexander Bolton for , “Asked later if he’s concerned about how participating in the trial will affect his White House bid,

Sanders responded, ‘Yeah, I am.’” Therefore, Sanders’ campaign might not have been impacted in regard to attendance numbers for campaign events, the campaign might have been harmed in regard to voter turnout.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden were consistently switching back and forth for first place in the weeks leading up to the Iowa caucuses. In the Des Moines

Register’s final poll before the election, which released Jan. 10 due to a mishap with what was supposed to be the final poll released on Feb. 1, showed Sanders leading in Iowa with 20 percent of the vote, followed by Warren in second with 17 percent, and Buttigieg third with 16 percent.

This poll showed a jump of 5 points since the previous one released on Nov. 16 where Sanders tied with Joe Biden with 15 percent of the vote, behind Warren with 16 percent, and Buttigieg led with 25 percent. Based on the numbers, the Sanders campaign did not seem to be in any trouble leading up to caucus night, although the Des Moines Register’s final poll being pulled two days before the caucus could have shown a different story. As the New York Times published, “The survey, published by The Des Moines Register for 76 years, is considered the gold standard for polling in the notoriously hard-to-predict state and is carefully watched as an 11 early indicator of strength in the caucuses.” This caucus was the first one to be conducted without the final poll from the Des Moines Register since 1944, and because of its reputation, it could sway some undecided voters on caucus night. And, this year, undecided voters played a big role in the results. The Des Moines Register Jan.10 poll showed 11 percent of likely

Democratic caucus-goers as being undecided less than a month before the caucus.

Still, at the end of caucus night, Sanders performed well. The results, however, were less than the polls predicted. The most recent poll conducted by Emerson College released Feb. 2 and showed Sanders leading by 7 percent. The results showed Sanders coming in second, although almost tying Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg received 26.2 percent of the Iowa vote and

Sanders received 26.1 percent. The results were so narrow that AP decided to not officially name a winner of the caucus.

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Works Cited

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DataDhrumil. “Iowa President: Democratic Primary Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 3 Apr. 2020, ​ ​ projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/.

Helman, Peter. “Watch Bon Iver Cover Bob Dylan At Bernie Sanders' Caucus Concert In

Iowa.” Stereogum, 1 Feb. 2020, ​ ​ www.stereogum.com/2072183/bon-iver-bernie-sanders-iowa/video/.

Howell, Michael. “3,000 People Rally with Vampire Weekend for Bernie Sanders in Cedar

Rapids.” KGAN, KGAN, 2 Feb. 2020, ​ ​ cbs2iowa.com/news/local/3000-people-rally-with-vampire-weekend-for-bernie-san

ders-in-cedar-rapids.

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Kupchan, Charles, et al. “Live Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls.”

RealClearPolitics, www.realclearpolitics.com/. ​ 13

“Musicians, Politicians, and Others Rally for Bernie Sanders in Iowa.” C, ​ ​ www.c-span.org/video/?468790-1%2Fmusicians-politicians-rally-bernie-sanders-io

wa&live=.

Nichols, John. “Sanders's Iowa Campaign Has Killer Ground Game.” The Nation, 3 Feb. ​ ​ 2020, www.thenation.com/article/politics/iowa-bon-iver-sanders/.

Saul, Stephanie. “How Impeachment Will Force Senators Off the Campaign Trail.” The ​ New York Times, The New York Times, 15 Jan. 2020, ​ www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/us/politics/democratic-senators-impeachment.html.

Semple, Jeff, et al. “Latest & Current News - Weather, Sports & Health News.” Global ​ News, 31 Dec. 1969, globalnews.ca/. ​

Wootson, Cleve. “Biden Jokingly Calls Voter Who Asked about Iowa a 'Lying Dog-Faced

Pony Soldier'.” , WP Company, 10 Feb. 2020, ​ ​ www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-jokingly-calls-voter-who-asked-about-iow

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