Annex0one000de0the0sava0riv

Home , A5 (Croatia), Glina (river), Ilova (Sava), Kamenica (Koceljeva), Korana, Krivaja (Bosna)

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Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin

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Public Disclosure Authorized ANNEX 1 - Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin April 2015

Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin

ANNEX 1 - Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

August 2015

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was made possible by the financial contribution of the World Bank’s Water Partnership Program (WPP) - a multi-donor trust fund that promotes water security for inclusive green growth (water.worldbank.org/water/wpp) and the Trust Fund for Environmentally & Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD).

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Project No. A040710 Document no. 1 Version 10 Date of issue August 2015 Prepared JAP/DAH Checked DAH/RSS Approved DAM Page i Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Table of Contents Page No

1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1 2 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR MODEL DEVELOPMENT ...... 3 2.1 Selection of the model ...... 3 2.2 Data collection ...... 4 2.3 Selection of the calibration and verification periods ...... 6 2.4 Record extension ...... 6 3 MODEL SETUP ...... 7 3.1 Basin subdivision ...... 7 3.2 HEC-HMS setup ...... 10 4 MODEL CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION ...... 13 4.1 Control hydrologic stations ...... 13 4.2 Model performance criteria ...... 14 4.3 Calibration and verification results ...... 15 4.4 Verification of simulations with the extended record of input data ...... 19 5 MODEL APPLICATION WITH FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS ...... 21 5.1 Methodology ...... 21 5.2 Climate scenarios as the input to the hydrologic model ...... 22 5.3 Hydrologic simulation with baseline climate scenarios ...... 26 5.4 Hydrologic simulations with future climate scenarios ...... 28 6 REMARKS ON UNCERTAINTY OF THE RESULTS ...... 33 7 REFERENCES ...... 35

APPENDIX A: Inventory of collected data ...... 37 APPENDIX B: Elements in the Sava hydrologic model ...... 46 APPENDIX C: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the calibration period 1979-1984 ...... 50 APPENDIX D: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the verification period 1969-1974 ...... 59 APPENDIX E: Simulated vs. observed seasonal stremflow distribution for the calibration period 1979-1984 .. 68 APPENDIX F: Simulated vs. observed seasonal streamflow distribution for the verification period 1979-1984 72 APPENDIX G: Simulated vs. observed seasonal streamflow distribution for the extended record 1961-1990 . 76 APPENDIX H: Seasonal streamflow distribution simulated with input from climate models for 1961-1990 ...... 81 APPENDIX I: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows in the future compared to 1961-1990 – complete results ...... 85 APPENDIX J: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows in the future compared to 1961-1990 – ensemble median values ...... 91

List of Tables Page No.

TABLE 1: MAJOR SUB‐BASINS FOR THE SAVA HYDROLOGIC MODEL WITH CONTRIBUTING AREAS ...... 8 TABLE 2: LIST OF SUB‐BASINS IN THE SAVA HYDROLOGIC MODEL ...... 9 TABLE 3: GENERAL PERFORMANCE RATINGS FOR NSE AND PBIAS FOR A MONTHLY TIME STEP (FROM MORIASI ET AL., 2007) ...... 15 TABLE 4: THE LIST OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS RESULTING FROM FIVE GCM/RCM COMBINATIONS ...... 22 TABLE 5: CHANGE IN ENSEMBLE MEDIAN VALUES OF MEAN SEASONAL (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) AND ANNUAL (ANN) RUNOFF, AVERAGED OVER 50 LOCATIONS IN THE SAVA BASIN, AND NUMBER OF LOCATIONS EXHIBITING INCREASED OR DECREASED RUNOFF ...... 29

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List of Figures Page No. FIGURE 1: THE SAVA RIVER BASIN WITHIN THE DANUBE RIVER BASIN AND THE COUNTRIES COVERING THE BASIN...... 1 FIGURE 2: THE SAVA RIVER BASIN OVERVIEW MAP WITH MAJOR RIVERS...... 2 FIGURE 3: NUMBER OF STATIONS WITH DAILY DATA ON DISCHARGE, PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE IN THE DATABASE...... 5 FIGURE 4: MAJOR SUB‐BASINS FOR THE SAVA HYDROLOGIC MODEL...... 7 FIGURE 5: SECOND‐LEVEL DIVISION OF THE SAVA RIVER BASIN FOR THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL...... 8 FIGURE 6: BASIN MODELS OF THE SAVA PROJECT IN HEC‐HMS ARE LISTED IN THE LEFT PANE. RIGHT PANE SHOWS ELEMENTS OF THE SECOND BASIN MODEL...... 10 FIGURE 7: USING SOURCE ELEMENTS TO REPRESENT UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTING AREAS MODELLED IN A SEPARATE BASIN MODELS: SELECTION OF THE DISCHARGE GAGE OPTION (LEFT), SPECIFICATION OF THE GAGE (TOP RIGHT), AND LINKING GAGE TO OUTPUT DATA (BOTTOM RIGHT).11 FIGURE 8: MODELLING METHODS FOR SUB‐BASINS AND REACHES ARE SHOWN IN THE LEFT PANE...... 12 FIGURE 9: CALIBRATION RESULTS FOR THE SAVA HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR SELECTED STATIONS...... 15 FIGURE 10: VALIDATION RESULTS FOR THE SAVA HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR SELECTED STATIONS...... 16 FIGURE 11: SIMULATED VS. OBSERVED SEASONAL RUNOFF DISTRIBUTION AT SELECTED HYDROLOGIC STATIONS FOR CALIBRATION (LEFT) AND VERIFICATION (RIGHT)...... 17 FIGURE 12: PERCENTAGE ERROR (PBIAS) IN MEAN FLOWS IN THE CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION PERIODS...... 17 FIGURE 13: NASH SUTCLIFFE EFFICIENCY (NSE) COEFFICIENT FOR MONTHLY FLOWS IN THE CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION PERIODS...... 18 FIGURE 14: NASH SUTCLIFFE EFFICIENCY (NSE) COEFFICIENT FOR DAILY FLOWS IN THE CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION PERIODS...... 18 FIGURE 15: MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR (MAPE) IN LONG‐TERM MEAN MONTHLY FLOWS IN THE CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION PERIODS...... 19 FIGURE 16: PERCENTAGE ERROR (PBIAS) IN MEAN FLOWS FOR SIMULATION WITH THE EXTENDED RECORD 1961‐1990 (* DENOTES EVALUATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE STREAMFLOW RECORD) ...... 20 FIGURE 17: NASH SUTCLIFFE MODEL EFFICIENCY (NSE) COEFFICIENT FOR MONTHLY FLOWS FOR SIMULATION WITH THE EXTENDED RECORD 1961‐1990 1990 (* DENOTES EVALUATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE STREAMFLOW RECORD) ...... 21 FIGURE 18: MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR (MAPE) IN LONG‐TERM MEAN MONTHLY FLOWS FOR SIMULATION WITH THE EXTENDED RECORD 1961‐19901990 (* DENOTES EVALUATION BASED ON INCOMPLETE STREAMFLOW RECORD) ...... 21 FIGURE 19: CHANGE IN MEAN ANNUAL (ANN) AND SEASONAL (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) TEMPERATURE FOR FIVE CLIMATE MODELS (CM1 THROUGH CM5) AND THE ENSEMBLE MEDIAN VALUES. MARKERS INDICATE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS USED IN THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL, AND ERROR BARS INDICATE THE RANGE OF VALUES ACROSS THE STATIONS...... 23 FIGURE 20: CHANGE IN MEAN ANNUAL (ANN) AND SEASONAL (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) PRECIPITATION FOR FIVE CLIMATE MODELS (CM1 THROUGH CM5) AND THE ENSEMBLE MEDIAN VALUES. MARKERS INDICATE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AT METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS USED IN THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL, AND ERROR BARS INDICATE THE RANGE OF VALUES ACROSS THE STATIONS...... 24 FIGURE 21: AN EXAMPLE OF MONTHLY FLOW HYDROGRAPHS SIMULATED WITH INPUT DATA FROM CLIMATE MODELS CM1 THROUGH CM5 COMPARED TO THE OBSERVED FLOWS...... 27 FIGURE 22: EXAMPLES OF DAILY DATA FROM CLIMATE MODELS COMPARED TO THE OBSERVED DATA: TEMPERATURES (LEFT) AND PRECIPITATION (RIGHT)...... 27 FIGURE 23: EXAMPLES OF MEAN MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR 1961‐1990 FROM CLIMATE MODELS COMPARED TO THE OBSERVED DATA...... 28 FIGURE 24: EXAMPLES OF MEAN MONTHLY STREAMFLOWS FOR 1961‐1990 FROM CLIMATE MODELS COMPARED TO THE OBSERVED FLOWS AND THE FLOWS SIMULATED WITH THE EXTENDED RECORD OF INPUT DATA...... 28 FIGURE 25: CHANGE IN ENSEMBLE MEDIAN VALUES OF MEAN SEASONAL (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) AND ANNUAL (ANN) RUNOFF, AVERAGED OVER 50 LOCATIONS IN THE BASIN; ERROR BARS INDICATE RANGE OF CHANGES ACROSS THE LOCATIONS...... 30 FIGURE 26: CHANGE IN MEAN WINTER (DJF) RUNOFF AT SELECTED LOCATIONS FOR FIVE CLIMATE SCENARIOS...... 31 FIGURE 27: CHANGE IN MEAN SPRING (MAM) RUNOFF AT SELECTED LOCATIONS FOR FIVE CLIMATE SCENARIOS...... 31 FIGURE 28: CHANGE IN MEAN SUMMER (JJA) RUNOFF AT SELECTED LOCATIONS FOR FIVE CLIMATE SCENARIOS...... 31 FIGURE 29: CHANGE IN MEAN AUTUMN (SON) RUNOFF AT SELECTED LOCATIONS FOR FIVE CLIMATE SCENARIOS...... 32 FIGURE 30: CHANGE IN MEAN ANNUAL (ANN) RUNOFF AT SELECTED LOCATIONS FOR FIVE CLIMATE SCENARIOS...... 32 FIGURE 31: CHANGE IN ANNUAL HIGH (Q10) AND LOW (Q90) FLOWS AVERAGED OVER 50 LOCATIONS IN THE BASIN; ERROR BARS INDICATE RANGE OF CHANGES ACROSS THE LOCATIONS...... 33

Page iii Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

CM Climate Model DEM Digital elevation model GCM Global Climate Model HEC-HMS Hydrologic Engineering Center – Hydrologic Modelling System HEC-RAS Hydrologic Engineering Center – River Analysis System ISRBC International Sava River Basin Commission MAPE Mean absolute percentage error in long-term mean monthly flows NSE Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient PBIAS Percentage error (bias) in long-term mean annual flow PET Potential evapotranspiration RCM Regional Climate Model SRB Sava River Basin SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission TFESSD Trust Fund for Environmentally & Socially Sustainable Development USACE Unite Stated Army Corps of Engineers WATCAP Water and Climate Adaptation Plan WPP Water Partnership Program

Page 1 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

DEVELOPMENT OF THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR THE SAVA RIVER BASIN

1 INTRODUCTION This report provides a description of the development of a hydrologic model for the Sava River Basin (SRB) that is one of the main components of the Water and Climate Adaptation Plan (WATCAP) being prepared by the Consultant for the International Sava River Basin Commission (ISRBC) under World Bank funding.1

Development of a hydrologic model that should be used to assess the hydrologic response of the SRB to future climate scenarios is one of the key steps in establishing the WATCAP for this basin. Predicting hydrologic response over a different range of climate scenarios will be of crucial im- portance for the future development of the SRB. It will enable ISRBC to make adequate plans and be better prepared for future adaptation and mitigation measures.

Source: International Sava River Basin Commission Figure 1: The Sava River basin within the Danube River basin and the countries covering the basin. This model is the basis of the analysis of climate change impacts on specific water management sec- tors (navigation, hydropower, flood control, and irrigation) and as such should be able to simulate the hydrologic regime adequately on a 10-day or monthly time scale.

1 COWI AS of Norway were contracted by the World Bank to undertake the development of the hydrologic model – World Bank Con‐ tract No ‐ 7162102

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The Sava River Basin (Figure 2) is a major drainage basin of the South Eastern Europe covering the total area of approximately 96,000 km2 (Prohaska, 2009). The Sava River is the second largest tribu- tary to the Danube River by catchment area, and has the largest water discharge to the Danube of all tributaries. The Sava River flows from the highest Slovenian Alps on the north-west toward confluence with Danube on the east in total length of 990 km (ISRBC, 2009). The basin is asymmetric, with much more developed river network on the south (right tributaries) than on the north (left tributaries). Major tributaries are the right tributaries: Kupa, Una, Vrbas, Bosna, and Drina rivers, with basin areas ranging from about 7,000 km2 (Vrbas) to 20,000 km2 (Drina). Average discharge of the Sava River at the confluence with Danube in Belgrade is 1700 m3/s, which results in average runoff yield of 18 L/s/km2.

Source: International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) Figure 2: The Sava River basin overview map with major rivers.

A hydrologic model of the whole Sava River basin has never been developed before, not even in the former Yugoslavia. The most noteworthy modelling efforts have been made in Slovenia for their part of the Sava River basin. Initially, Republic Hydro-meteorological Service of Slovenia (2001) developed a model in the WMS (Watershed Management System) environment, based on the Hydrologic Engi- neering Centre - Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) model, for the Sava River down to the Zidani Most station.2 The WMS environment was later abandoned and the HBV model3 was used (e.g. Kobold and Brilly, 2006; Primožič et al, 2008), but the primary purpose of the model was flood forecasting. A rainfall-runoff model for the Vrbas basin was developed using the HEC-HMS software within the scope of the Update of the Water Resources Management Basis for the Vrbas River basin

2 HEC‐HMS is developed by the United States Army Corp of Engineers (USACE). 3 HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) is developed by Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (Bergström, 1976, 1992).

Page 3 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

(COWI, 2012). In Serbia, a HBV-based model of the Kolubara River basin has been developed by the Republic Hydro-meteorological Service of Serbia (Haddeland et al, 2013).

This report presents development of the hydrologic model for the SRB and represents one of the principal tasks of the WATCAP project. The scope of work related to model development included the following tasks:

• Perform an analysis and make the selection of the meteorological and hydrological stations from which the data will be collected and used for the modelling; • Collect and analyse data needed for the model (meteorological, hydrological, digital terrain model, land use, etc.); • Set-up the model, including calibration and verification; • Using the observed and modelled hydrologic and meteorological data, create scenario forecasts for each of the gauges within the basin and create simulation forecasts; • Complete a hydrologic model that will be used in simulation and planning purposes that will allow the users to make decisions with future scenarios.

This report describes work done on data collection, model setup, calibration and verification, and also gives the results of simulations with future climate scenarios. The SRB is described to a high detail in the Sava River Basin Analysis Report4 published by ISRBC (2009), while a systematic overview of nu- merous previous studies of the hydrologic regime of the Sava River and its tributaries has been com- piled by Prohaska (2009). Development of climate scenarios has been prepared by other consultants and is presented in a separate report (Vujadinović and Vuković, 2013).

2 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS FOR MODEL DEVELOPMENT

2.1 Selection of the model The decision to use HEC-HMS (USACE, 2010) as the modelling platform for development of the hydrologic model of the Sava basin has been made in agreement with the ISRBC for two reasons. First, a preliminary HEC-HMS model for the Sava basin had already been developed and initially calibrated by USACE in the course of development of the unsteady hydraulic model of the Sava River with the HEC-RAS (River Analysis System) software (USACE, 2011). Second, an HEC-HMS model could easily be disseminated to the relevant users in the riparian countries since the HMS software can be obtained free of charge. In the case of general poor data availability in the Sava basin, HEC-HMS has an advantage of having low data requirements. The main disadvantage is that HEC-HMS is not com- pletely suitable for continuous simulation of large basins since it has originally been developed for es- timating flood hydrographs from smaller basins.

HEC-HMS models runoff in 5 steps. It calculates (1) interception, (2) surface detention, (3) infiltration, (4) direct runoff, and (5) baseflow. For a basin divided into sub-basins, routing the outflow hydrograph from a sub-basin toward downstream nodes of the river network is also necessary. Different methods can be applied in each step, but not all the methods are applicable for continuous simulation. Two main decisions related to the model have to be made before actual modelling and corresponding data collection can begin. These are:

• definition of sub-basins within the basin, and • choice of computational time step.

4 Often referred to as the Sava River Basin Characterisation Report

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These two problems are interrelated. Basin subdivision into sub-basins should be made in such a manner to include all locations at which description of the water regime is needed, but also to include locations of hydrologic gauging stations where reliable observed data is available for model calibration and verification. On the other hand, computational time step should be chosen so that it enables good temporal representation of hydrologic processes in the basin, but it is generally related to the size of sub-basin (smaller basin size requires shorter time step and vice versa). Finally, choice of the computational time step dictates temporal resolution of the model input data.

In case of the SRB, computational time step of 1 day was initially chosen for modelling since this is the longest possible time step in HEC-HMS. However, a 12-hour time step was later adopted to re- solve the issues related to precipitation data representation (measured from 7 am one day to 7 am next day, in contrast to flow and temperature measurements that are averaged over 0-24 hour period) and to enable more realistic hydrologic routing on smaller sub-basins.

Basin subdivision was made with respect to daily time step (sub-basin sizes approximately from 2000 to 5000 km2) and to data availability and quality (i.e. reliable measurements, no gaps). Priority was generally given to stations recommended by riparian experts hired by the World Bank5. In fact, basin subdivision had to be made in two phases: after initial subdivision and request for data, final subdivision was made in accordance with available hydrologic and meteorological data.

It should be mentioned here that the preliminary hydrologic model mentioned above and developed by USACE could not have been used. This model was developed as the event-based model, aimed at simulating flood runoff hydrographs from rainfall events with very fine temporal resolution of 15 minutes. The modelling methods chosen for this model were not suitable for continuous simulation aimed at future climate analysis that is the main goal of this project. These methods did not include interception and surface losses and the snow melt procedure; also, they included soil loss method (“Initial and Constant”) that is not applicable for continuous simulation. The USACE model was calibrated against statistically derived design rainfall and flows (of 50 and 100 years return period) in ab- sence of the observed sub-daily data on rainfall and flows. In contrast, a continuous hydrologic model needs to be built on the continuous time series of precipitation and temperatures, with a time scale not shorter than one day. In addition, the division of the Sava basin into the sub-basins applied in this model did not include sub-basins related to additional hydrologic stations needed for this study. Therefore, virtually none of the elements of the USACE model could have been retained for development of the hydrologic model for continuous runoff simulation.

2.2 Data collection The principal input data for the model is: daily precipitation, daily air temperatures, and monthly potential evapotranspiration. In addition to the meteorological input, hydrologic data (daily flows) is needed for calibration and verification purposes.

Data for the Sava hydrologic model were collected from several sources. Part of the required hydrometeorological data was available from previous work undertaken by the World Bank on the WATCAP project on the analysis of statistical trends at 33 meteorological and 38 hydrologic stations over the Sava basin (Tables A1, A2 and A3 in Appendix A) (World Bank 2011). Additional data collection was performed by five experts from riparian countries. Data requested from riparian countries generally consist of:

• hydrologic data at selected stations and in selected periods (daily flow rates), • precipitation and air temperature data at selected meteorological stations (daily data),

5 Individual contracts were made between World Bank and riparian experts in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (one with Fed‐ eration of BiH and one with Republika Srpska) and Serbia. Data from Montenegro was obtained directly from the Hydro‐ meteorological institute directly by ISRBC.

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• potential evapotranspiration data at selected stations (monthly data), • data on water control facilities in the Sava River basin.

Data gathered by riparian experts is listed in Tables A4 and A5 in Appendix A. The experts collected additional data at stations already available from the World Bank trends report and data for additional hydrologic and meteorological stations. Data from Montenegro needed for the Drina River basin part of the SRB was obtained by courtesy of the Hydro-meteorological service of Montenegro via ISRBC (these stations are included in Table A5 in Appendix A). A small amount of data for the Vrbas River basin was used from the Vrbas Study project (COWI, 2012).

Locations of all hydrologic and meteorological stations for which any data has been collected are shown in Figures A1 and A2 in Appendix A.

Figure 3 shows number of hydrologic and meteorological (precipitation and temperature) stations with data collected and stored in the project database. A major drawback is lack of data from Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina during the war and post-war period between 1991 and 2005. Because of general poor availability of digitized meteorological data in Bosnia and Herzegovina for the period pri- or to 1990, precipitation and temperature data were obtained only for two 5-year periods selected for model calibration and verification (1969-1974 and 1979-1984); hence the drop for precipitation and temperature data in mid 1970s in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Number of stations with daily data on discharge, precipitation and temperature in the database.

ISRBC provided digital elevation model (DEM) of the basin in raster format. The DEM is based on SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission; Farr et al., 2007) data with a horizontal resolution of approximately 85 m. ISRBC also provided input and output data for the HEC-HMS model developed by USACE. This data also included a 30-m DEM and two products of this DEM created in HEC-GeoHMS for the USACE model, namely the river network and sub-basin delineation vectors. However, these two products could not have been used. The river network, produced by automatic procedures for stream recognition in HEC-GeoHMS (ArcView), has significant departures from the true network. New river vectors were therefore digitized from the 1:250,000 maps. The basin subdivision created by an automatic delineation procedure in HEC-GeoHMS was only partially used for locations that are com- mon to previous USACE basin subdivision and the new one made in this project. In addition, the USACE automatic delineation has proved inaccurate in the plains of the Sava River valley since the river channels generated from DEM did not correspond to the true channels, especially for the most downstream parts of the major tributaries Una, Vrbas, Bosna, and Drina. At these locations sub-basin boundaries were corrected manually. Sub-basins obtained in this way were used to develop elevation-area relationships that are required for the snow melt module of the model. However, sub-basin

Page 6 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin areas were not defined from this delineation, but from official information provided by national hydrometeorological services via the riparian experts and from information given by Prohaska (2009).

2.3 Selection of the calibration and verification periods Having in mind the number of stations for which calibration had to be made and a large number of the model parameters involved in calibration, it was concluded that it would be reasonable to select two 5- year periods for calibration and verification. Poor data availability in the Sava Basin after 1990 sug- gested that calibration and verification periods should be selected prior to this year, i.e. from the standard climatological period 1961-1990. The basic idea was to seek for 5-year periods between 1961 and 1990 in which hydrologic regime could be considered representative or “average”. A preliminary analysis of hydrologic regimes at 63 hydrologic stations in the Sava Basin had shown that the departures of 5-year mean flows from the overall 1961-1990 mean are the smallest in the period 1970-1974, followed by the periods 1979-1983, 1969-1973, 1973-1977, and 1980-1984. The final choice of the calibration and verification periods is as follows:

• Calibration: 5 hydrologic years from October 1979 to September 1984; • Verification: 5 hydrologic years from October 1969 to September 1974.

The initial idea was to have a second verification period (2005-2010) that would reflect recent conditions within the basin, but this was abandoned due to poor data availability in this period.

2.4 Record extension The decision to run the model for the complete 1961-1990 period was made at the meeting of 17th January 2013 in Zagreb, after the data collection procedure by the riparian experts was completed.6 It was therefore agreed that additional data collection would result in long delays and that a more prac- tical approach would be to extend the existing record to cover the 1961-1990 period. A total of 29 precipitation records and 13 temperature records needed extension, while an additional 30 precipitation stations and 23 temperature stations with complete record were used for the record reconstruction.

Filling in the missing observations and extension of short records of daily precipitation and temperatures was based on the application of a regional climate model. The idea behind the record reconstruction is the following: if the meteorological parameters are represented by spatially continuous fields in the atmosphere, then the observations can be seen as the values of meteorological parameters sampled in points at synoptic, climatological or precipitation stations. The problem is then how to reconstruct these parameter fields from a set of discrete (point) measurements. This reconstruction is made using a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (NHMM) developed in Republic Hydro-meteorological Service of Serbia on the basis of the FITNAH model7, but adapted for local climate conditions by taking into account large scale processes, mesoscale meteorological parameters and local orography. For reconstruction of daily precipitation and temperature records in the SRB, the NHMM model was used with horizontal resolution of 1 km by 1 km. The model was calibrated against data from 10 synoptic stations and verified on the remaining available data over the whole period. The verification has shown that the record reconstruction produced satisfactory results except for some underestimation of precipitation at stations in the Montenegrin part of the Drina River basin (part of the SRB). This is because the applied model could not perform well in the mountainous region such as the upper Drina basin without proper boundary conditions. However, subsequent hydrologic simulations proved that this uncertainty did not affect the modelling process significantly.

6 Meeting held at ISRBC offices between ISRBC, World Bank and COWI AS 7 The FITNAH model (Flow over irregular terrain with natural and anthropogenic heat sources) is developed at University of Hannover by Gross (1992).

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3 MODEL SETUP

3.1 Basin subdivision For the modelling purposes, the complete Sava River basin is divided into sub-basins. Two levels of division are made. On the first level, 14 major sub-basins are defined (Figure 4 and Table 1):

• the upper Sava in Slovenia (01) and major tributaries (Kupa, Una, Vrbas, Bosna, Drina, Kolubara rivers; odd numbers from 03 to 13); • sub-basins along the Sava valley between the major tributaries (even numbers from 02 to 14).

Figure 4 shows major sub-basins in different colours, as indicated in the legend. Major sub-basins are modelled separately and linked sequentially for joint simulations. The second level of division is also shown in Figure 5. A complete list of the second-level sub-basins is given in Table 2. The total number of sub-basins is 44, of which 35 are controlled by hydrologic stations at the outlet.

Figure 4: Major sub-basins for the Sava hydrologic model.

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Table 1: Major sub-basins for the Sava hydrologic model with contributing areas

No. Sub-basin name Area (km2) Cumulative area (km2) 01 Sava to HS Čatež 10186 10186 02 Sava to Kupa 2584 12770 03 Kupa 10032 22802 04 Sava to Una 6627 29429 05 Una 9524 38953 06 Sava to Vrbas 1840 40793 07 Vrbas 6386 47179 08 Sava to Bosna 4491 51670 09 Bosna 10457 62127 10 Sava to Drina 2866 64993 11 Drina 19946 84939 12 Sava to Kolubara 6818 91757 13 Kolubara 3636 95393 14 Sava to Beograd 1007 96400

Figure 5: Second-level division of the Sava River basin for the hydrologic model.

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Table 2: List of sub-basins in the Sava hydrologic model

Sub-basin Cumulative Station No. Code Sub-basin area area Control station basin area (km2) (km2) (km2)

1 01_S1 Sava to HS Šent Jakob 2285 2285 Sava @ HS Šent Jakob 2285 2 01_S2 Ljubljanica to HS Moste 1762 1762 Ljubljanica @ HS Moste 1762 3 01_S3 Sava to HS Litija 774 4821 Sava @ HS Litija 4821 4 01_S5 Savinja to HS Laško 1664 1664 Savinja @ HS Laško 1664 5 01_S4 Sava with Savinja 530 7015 6 01_S8 Krka to HS Podbočje 2238 2238 Krka @ HS Podbočje 2238 7 01_S7 Sava to HS Čatež 933 10186 Sava @ HS Čatež 10186 8 02_S1 Sava to HS Zagreb 2264 12450 Sava @ HS Zagreb 12450 9 02_S2 Sava to Kupa 320 12770 Sava @ HS Rugvica 12730 10 03_S1 Kupa to HS Brodarci 3405 3405 Kupa @ HS Brodarci 3405 11 03_S2 Kupa to HS J. Kiselica 3490 6895 Kupa @ HS Jamn. Kiselica 6895 12 03_S3 Kupa to HS Farkašić 2097 8992 Kupa @ HS Farkašić 8992 13 03_S4 Kupa to Sava 1040 10032 - 04_J1 Sava with Kupa (junction) - 22802 Sava @ HS Crnac 22852 14 04_S1 Sava to Una 6627 29429 15 05_S1 Una to HS Kralje 3639 3639 Una @ HS Kralje 3639 16 05_S3 Sana to HS Prijedor 3191 3191 Sana @ HS Prijedor 3191 17 05_S2 Una to HS Novi Grad nizv. 1677 8507 Una @ HS Novi Grad nizv. 8507 18 05_S4 Una to HS Kostajnica 369 8876 Una @ HS Kostajnica 8876 19 05_S5 Una to Sava 648 9524 - 06_J1 Sava with Una (junction) - 38953 Sava @ HS Jasenovac 38953 20 06_S1 Sava to Vrbas 1840 40793 Sava @ HS Mačkovac 40838 21 07_S1 Vrbas to HS Han Skela 1357 1357 Vrbas @ HS Han Skela 1357 22 07_S2 Pliva to HS Volari 1665 1665 Pliva @ HS Volari 1665 23 07_S3 Vrbas to HS Bočac 1070 4092 Vrbas @ HS Bočac 4092 24 07_S4 Vrbas to HS Delibašino Selo 1377 5469 Vrbas @ HS Delib. Selo 5469 25 07_S5 Vrbas to Sava 917 6386 - 08_J1 Sava with Vrbas (junction) - 47179 Sava @ HS Davor 47179 26 08_S1 Sava to HS Slav. Brod 3679 50858 Sava @ HS Slav. Brod 50858 27 08_S2 Sava to Bosna 812 51670 28 09_S1 Bosna to HS Dobrinje 2587 2587 Bosna @ HS Dobrinje 2587 29 09_S2 Bosna to HS Raspotočje 1466 4053 Bosna @ HS Raspotočje 4053 30 09_S3 Bosna to HS Maglaj 2487 6540 Bosna @ HS Maglaj 6540 31 09_S45 Bosna to HS Doboj 3078 9618 Bosna @ HS Doboj 9618 32 09_S6 Bosna to Sava 839 10457 - 10_J1 Sava with Bosna (junction) - 62127 33 10_S1 Sava to HS Županja 764 62891 Sava @ HS Županja 62891 34 10_S2 Sava to Drina 2102 64993 35 11_S1 Drina to HS Foča nizv. 5446 5446 Drina @ HS Foča nizv. 5446 36 11_S2 Lim to HS Priboj 3684 3684 Lim @ HS Priboj 3684 37 11_S3 Drina to HS Bajina Bašta 5667 14797 Drina @ HS Bajina Bašta 14797 38 11_S4 Drina to HS Radalj 2693 17490 Drina @ HS Radalj 17490 39 11_S5 Drina to Sava 2456 19946 - 12_J1 Sava with Drina (junction) - 84939 40 12_S1 Sava to HS S. Mitrovica 3057 87996 Sava @ HS S. Mitrovica 87996 41 12_S2 Sava to Kolubara 3761 91757 42 13_S1 Kolubara to HS Beli Brod 1896 1896 Kolubara @ HS Beli Brod 1896 43 13_S2 Kolubara to Sava 1740 3636 - 14_J1 Sava with Kolubara (junction) - 95393 44 14_S1 Sava to Beograd 1007 96400

Page 10 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

3.2 HEC-HMS setup

3.2.1 Model structure A HEC-HMS project consists of basin models, meteorological models and control specifications. A basin model serves to define elements of the basin (such as sub-basins, reaches and junctions), and runoff computation method for each element. A meteorological model is used to define methods for calculation of basin precipitation, snow melt and potential evapotranspiration. Control specifications are used to define the time window for computation. To perform a simulation run, these three components need to be specified.

The Sava Basin hydrologic model is built with 14 separate basin models representing major sub- basins as listed in Table 1. The model is implemented in this manner to allow application of different meteorological models to each basin. This is particularly important for the snowmelt and evapotranspiration representation. If the whole Sava Basin had been described with one basin model in HEC- HMS, only one set of snowmelt parameters and one set of potential evapotranspiration data could have been used.

Fourteen basin models consist of odd-numbered basins representing upper Sava in Slovenia and major tributaries (Kupa, Una, Vrbas, Bosna, Drina and Kolubara rivers), and even-numbered basins that represent the Sava Basin parts between the major tributaries. Figure 6 shows the HEC-HMS typical interface with the list of basin models in the left pane, with the second basin model selected so that its elements are displayed.

Figure 6: Basin models of the Sava project in HEC-HMS are listed in the left pane. Right pane shows elements of the second basin model. The basin models are linked using the source elements in the even-numbered basins. A source element is used to represent boundary conditions to the basin model. For example, the selected basin model in Figure 6, named “02_Sava to Kupa”, is the part of the Sava basin from the Čatež hydrologic station to the confluence with the Kupa River. The first element in this basin model is “Source-01”, which represents inflow to this basin from basin “01_Slovenia”. This inflow is routed via the

Page 11 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

“02_R2_Čatež-Zagreb“ reach to the “02_J1_Zagreb” junction, which represents the Zagreb hydrologic station. The same junction receives runoff from the “02_S1_Zagreb” sub-basin element. Routed inflow and the sub-basin runoff are added in the junction, to be routed downstream by the “02_R2_Zagreb- UsceKupe” reach. Outflow from this reach and runoff from the “02_S2_UsceKupe” sub-basin are added in the final “02_J2_Sava to Kupa” junction. Outflow from this final junction is later used as the inflow to the downstream “04_Sava from Kupa to Una” basin model. Similarly, outflow from every last junction in other basin models becomes a source in the corresponding downstream basin model, thus enabling the basins to be linked.

Figure 7: Using source elements to represent upstream contributing areas modelled in a separate basin models: selection of the Discharge Gage option (left), specification of the gage (top right), and linking gage to output data (bottom right). The source elements are implemented in HEC-HMS so that they can produce a constant flow or flow from a discharge gauge. In case when a source element represents a contributing area in a separate basin model, this discharge gauge is just a formal way to associate the simulated outflow from another basin model with the source element. To accomplish this, the Discharge Gage option is selected (Figure 7 left) and a discharge gauge specified (Figure 7 top right), while the gauge is defined with outflow data from the output file of the other basin model (Figure 7 bottom right). The complete list of model elements is given in Appendix B.

A consequence of having multiple basin models is that multiple simulation runs have to be made. These simulations have to be run in sequence from the most upstream basin to the most downstream one to enable correct computations. This is easily accomplished by using the Multiple Compute dialog box in HEC-HMS.

3.2.2 Basin modelling methods The following methods for continuous runoff modelling in HEC-HMS are used in each basin model (Figure 8):

• Simple Canopy method to account for interception losses; • Simple Surface method to account for surface depression losses;

Page 12 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

• Deficit and Constant loss method to account for infiltration losses; • Clark Unit Hydrograph transform method for direct runoff computation; • Constant Monthly method or Recession method for base flow calculation; • Muskingum method or Lag method for hydrograph routing along reaches.

The Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) loss method was also considered, but was abandoned due to the large number of parameters required and poor data availability.

The constant monthly base flow method was used for sub-basins where the recession method could not provide good agreement of simulated runoff with the observed data in the calibration process. This is mostly the case of sub-basins with significant presence of karst in geological structure, which usually produces a complex watershed response that cannot be modelled with simple methods such as the exponential recession or the linear reservoir.

The lag routing method was used for short reaches for which the Muskingum method could not be applied because the 12-hour time step did not allow stable numerical computation.

Figure 8: Modelling methods for sub-basins and reaches are shown in the left pane.

3.2.3 Meteorological modelling methods Different meteorological models were defined for each basin model to enable application of different parameters for snow melt and potential evapotranspiration.

Precipitation for each sub-basin in the Sava Basin model is determined as a weighted average of precipitation at gauge locations (the Gage Weights method in HEC-HMS). The weights were initially estimated using the Thiessen polygons method, but were later adjusted during the calibration process to obtain the best possible agreement of simulated and observed flows.

Page 13 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

The snow melt is calculated with the Temperature Index method, which is the only method available in HEC-HMS. Most of the parameters of this method are defined on the level of the basin model (i.e. on the level of the major Sava sub-basins). Each sub-basin within the basin model can use a different temperature gauge data and different parameters including the temperature gradient and distribution of elevation bands in the sub-basin with different initial snowmelt conditions.

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) can be calculated in HEC-HMS using the Priestley-Taylor method or specified with the Constant Monthly method. In addition to the temperature data, the Priestley- Taylor method requires data on solar radiation, which was not available. The Constant Monthly method uses a fixed pattern of monthly PET that can be estimated outside HEC-HMS, and it was therefore suitable for use in the Sava Basin modelling. Each sub-basin in the basin model can have different Constant Monthly PET.

The model uses 48 precipitation stations and 27 temperature stations, as noted in the last column of Table A5 of Appendix A. These stations are also listed in Table B2 of Appendix B. In addition to 48 regular precipitation stations, Table B2 indicates two more stations included in the model. These are artificial stations with transformed data from two regular stations that are formally used in HEC-HMS for achieving better results. First, precipitation from the Celje meteorological station shifted backwards in time (for 36 hours) was used for the 01_S5 subbasin of the Savinja River because there was no other appropriate precipitation station for this subbasin. The Celje station is located at very downstream part of this sub-basin and actually proved well in calibration except that the simulated hydrograph had significant delay behind the observed one. Since there was no other precipitation data available from stations within this sub-basin, the time-shifted Celje precipitation was used and was denoted in the model as the “Celje -36h” precipitation gauge. Similarly, precipitation for the 05_S5 subbasin of the Una River was taken as reduced precipitation from the Novi Grad meteorological station by factor 0.88. Again, no other precipitation station could produce satisfactory results in the calibration phase in terms of the runoff dynamics, while the precipitation data from the Novi Grad station provided fair simulated runoff dynamics but produced overestimated runoff. Specifying a weight less than 1 to a single precipitation station on a subbasin is meaningless because HMS would rescale it to 1. Therefore, the reduced precipitation from the Novi Grad station was used as the “Novi Grad x 0.88” precipitation gauge.

4 MODEL CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION

4.1 Control hydrologic stations Calibration and verification of the hydrologic model of the Sava River basin was performed for two periods, each having duration of five hydrologic years:

• Calibration: from October 1979 to September 1984; • Verification: from October 1969 to September 1974.

The complete Sava basin model was calibrated against observed daily flow data at 35 hydrologic stations. Out of these 35 stations, five were excluded from evaluation. Three stations (Pliva @ Volari, Vrbas @ Bočac and Drina @ Foča Nizvodno) had incomplete records in both calibration and verification periods. One more station (Drina @ Radalj) has incomplete record in the verification period. Moreover, data from stations Pliva @ Volari and Vrbas @ Bočac is considered unreliable since nu- merous errors were discovered in the record. Data from the Vrbas @ Han Skela station is also found to be unreliable and was therefore excluded despite the complete record. Model performance in the calibration and verification periods is presented for the remaining 30 stations.

Additional verification was conducted for model simulations with the extended input data records in the 1961-1990 period. Complete historical streamflow record for 1961-1990 was available only for 19

Page 14 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin stations. Five stations excluded from evaluation in the calibration and verification periods were excluded here as well. Incomplete records from the remaining 11 stations for 1961-1990 are generally longer than 20 years, and these stations are not excluded from evaluation for this period.

4.2 Model performance criteria Evaluation of the model performance is typically based on specific statistics and ratings developed to evaluate (or penalize) various performance criteria, such as accuracy of predicting peak flows, total hydrograph volume, peak flow, time to peak etc., depending on project goals. For this project and the model intended to perform long-term simulations of present and future hydrologic regime, the goal is to predict the long-term mean flows on monthly and annual scale with reasonable accuracy. The following measures are used to assess performance of the Sava Basin model.

(1) Percentage error (bias) in long-term mean annual flow, defined as:

| Q sim  Q obs | PBIAS  obs 100 (%) Q

where Q sim and Q obs are simulated and observed mean flows, respectively. This measure re- flects the model’s capability to maintain water balance by reproducing total runoff volume. The lower PBIAS, the better is the model’s performance.

(2) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient:

(Q sim  Q obs ) 2 NSE  1  i i (Q obs  Q obs ) 2  i

sim obs obs where Qi and Qi are simulated and observed flows at time step i, respectively, and Q is observed mean flow. The NSE coefficient determines the relative magnitude of the error variance compared to the observed data variance, and essentially represents the percentage of observed data variance explained by the model. NSE takes values in range between −∞ and 1; value of 1 indicates a perfect agreement, while negative values indicate very poor agreement. The NSE coefficient is evaluated for the monthly and daily time steps.

(3) Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in long-term mean monthly flows:

1 12 | Q sim  Q obs | MAPE  m m 100 (%)  obs 12 m1 Qm

sim obs where Qm and Qm are simulated and observed long-term mean monthly flows in month m, respectively. This measure is introduced here to evaluate differences in simulated long-term mean seasonal flow distribution compared to the observed one. Lower values of MAPE indicate better agreement.

Although there are no generally accepted criteria for model evaluation in terms of the accuracy of simulated flow compared to measured data, the performance ratings given by Moriasi et al. (2007), based on the ratings and corresponding values reported from individual studies, are used here to evaluate quality of the fit. The ratings for NSE and PBIAS are shown in Table 3. In general, a model simulation can be judged as satisfactory if NSE > 0.50 and if PBIAS < ±25% for stream flow.

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Table 3: General performance ratings for NSE and PBIAS for a monthly time step (from Moriasi et al., 2007)

Performance rating NSE PBIAS Very good 0.75 < NSE ≤ 1.00 PBIAS < ±10% Good 0.65 < NSE ≤ 0.75 ±10% ≤ PBIAS < ±15% Satisfactory 0.50 < NSE ≤ 0.65 ±15% ≤ PBIAS < ±25% Unsatisfactory NSE ≤ 0.50 PBIAS ≥ ±25%

4.3 Calibration and verification results Examples of calibration results at three selected stations along the Sava River are shown in Figure 9. The graphs show simulated vs. observed mean monthly flows for 5 water years during the calibration period. The results for the verification period at the same stations are shown in Figure 10. Complete results for all stations are given in Appendix C (calibration) and Appendix D (verification).

Figure 9: Calibration results for the Sava hydrologic model for selected stations.

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Figure 10: Validation results for the Sava hydrologic model for selected stations. Simulated vs. observed seasonal distribution of flows at selected stations are shown in Figure 11. These are examples with fairly good agreement. The results for all 30 stations are given in Appendix E (calibration) and Appendix F (verification). At all stations one can generally notice spring underestimation and summer/autumn overestimation. Overestimation is due to the fact that HEC-HMS does not account for evapotranspiration in time steps in which precipitation occurs. This creates problems in modelling runoff from short-duration heavy precipitation events that usually take place in summer. Such events typically last for several hours, and therefore it is unrealistic to neglect evaporation during the same time step of 12 hours. HEC-HMS is mainly intended for simulations on smaller catchments with shorter time step, e.g. hourly step, in which case it would be justified to neglect evapotranspiration. Therefore, in order to obtain a better fit in summer, precipitation station weights are calibrated so as to reduce the summer runoff, meaning that the overall basin precipitation is probably generally underestimated. However, this also results in spring underestimation. If the precipitation station weights were chosen to obtain good fit in spring, the summer overestimation would be much more pronounced.

The percentage error in mean flows (PBIAS) is shown in Figure 12. This error is quite small in the calibration period (rating for PBIAS in the calibration period is “very good” for all stations). In the verification period PBIAS is rated “very good” and “good” at the majority of stations, whereas only five stations are rated “satisfactory”. The underestimation at Slovenian stations is due to the use of the constant monthly baseflow method, i.e. the constant values of baseflow for each January, February etc. that can be unrepresentative in some years. This method was nevertheless kept for further simulations at Slovenian stations since it proved to be superior to the recession method. Stations on the Bosna River and the Delibašino Selo station on the Vrbas River in BiH exhibit significant overestimation in the verification period, but this overestimation is not conveyed downstream in any significant amount. One of the reasons for this overestimation in the Bosna River basin could be that available

Page 17 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin precipitation data is either not representative for the basin in question or is subject to errors. For Delibašino Selo on the Vrbas River it could be assumed that there is either a strong influence of the Bočac reservoir or a problem with the hydrologic measurements.

Figure 11: Simulated vs. observed seasonal runoff distribution at selected hydrologic stations for calibration (left) and verification (right).

Figure 12: Percentage error (PBIAS) in mean flows in the calibration and verification periods.

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Figure 13: Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient for monthly flows in the calibration and verification periods.

Figure 14: Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient for daily flows in the calibration and verification periods. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficients for monthly flow series are shown in Figure 13. Val- ues of about 0.8 achieved here in calibration for monthly values at the majority of stations (25 out of 30) are considered “very good” according to the ratings from Table 3. Five stations have NSE rated as “good”. Results for the validation period generally give slightly lower NSE than for calibration, except again at stations on the Bosna River, the Delibašino Selo station on the Vrbas River and the Podbočje station on the Krka River which are unsatisfactory. The hydrologic regime of the Krka River is under heavy influence of karst in the catchment. A primary goal in model calibration was to achieve good model performance on the monthly time scale, rather than for the computational time step of 12 hours or on a daily scale. The degree of agreement of observed and simulated runoff on these shorter time scales varies from station to station. Figure 14 presents NSE coefficients for daily flows at 30 selected hydrologic stations. Only three stations exhibit NSE < 0.5 in the calibration period, while significant deterioration in the validation period is again at the stations on the Bosna River and the Delibašino Selo station on the Vrbas River. It is interesting to notice that the quality of simulations at the Podbočje station on the Krka River in the verification period is better on a daily scale than on the monthly scale, indicating that the model can

Page 19 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin cope with direct runoff as a direct consequence of precipitation, but that it cannot cope with an unpre- dictable storage in karst areas that spans over several months.

The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in long-term mean monthly flows, used to evaluate differences in simulated long-term mean seasonal flow distribution compared to the observed one, is shown in Figure 15. In the calibration period this measure ranges from 8% to 16%, with two excep- tions for the Podbočje station on the Krka River and the Beli Brod station on the Kolubara River. Pos- sible reasons for unsatisfactory model performance for the Krka @ Podbočje have already been mentioned. On the other hand, the Kolubara basin is very heterogeneous in terms of relief and geological structure. There is also karst present in some of its sub-basins, but the major obstacle to better modelling results seems to be unreliable precipitation data, especially during winter. The values of MAPE are generally somewhat higher in the verification period, where again the worst results are attributed to the Bosna River basin and the Delibašino Selo station on the Vrbas River. Since there are no recommended limits to assign ratings to the values of MAPE, based on the results from calibration period and visual inspection of seasonal distributions shown in Appendix E, it could be assumed that the MAPEs below 10% or 15% could be characterised as an acceptable model performance.

Figure 15: Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in long-term mean monthly flows in the calibration and verification periods.

4.4 Verification of simulations with the extended record of input data Precipitation and temperature data sets with missing data in the 1961-1990 period were extended to enable model simulations for a complete 30-year climatological period. The actual simulations with the extended record were performed for a time window from 1 September 1961 to 30 September 1990 to obtain 29 complete hydrologic years from October 1961 to September 1990. One additional month (September 1961) was intended for the model warm up.

The results of these simulations can be compared to the observed data at 19 hydrologic stations having a complete historical streamflow record for 1961-1990. The remaining 11 stations used in calibration and verification have an incomplete record in this period, but are long enough (more than 20 years) to allow appropriate evaluation of model performance. In the following text, the evaluation is given for all 30 stations, but the stations with incomplete records were marked to differentiate them from those with complete records. As already mentioned, five stations excluded from evaluation in the calibration and verification periods were excluded here as well.

It should be noted that the evaluation of the model performance with input data from the extended record actually includes evaluation of both the quality of the extended data sets in comparison to the

Page 20 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin historical data and the quality of the hydrologic simulations. In other words, the uncertainties present in the results can equally be attributed to uncertainty in input data and to the modelling uncertainty. Three measures for model performance evaluation (percentage error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and average percentage error) for simulation with the extended record 1961-1990 are given in Figure 16, Figure 17, and Figure 18. Each measure is compared to those from the calibration and verification periods. The error in the long-term water balance as reflected by PBIAS is generally smaller for the whole 1961-1990 period than in the verification period 1969-1974 (Figure 16). The bias re- mains relatively large at Slovenian stations, which exhibit underestimation of about 10%. It is interesting to note that the large bias from the verification period at stations Krka @ Podbočje, Vrbas @ Delibašino Selo and the stations on the Bosna River has decreased to more acceptable values with the extended input data. The only exception is the Bajina Bašta station on the Drina River which exhibits greater underestimation in this overall period than in the calibration and verification periods; this is a consequence of underestimated precipitation in the Montenegrin part of the Drina River basin after the record extension, as already discussed in section 2.4.

Figure 16: Percentage error (PBIAS) in mean flows for simulation with the extended record 1961-1990 (* denotes evaluation based on incomplete streamflow record) Similar conclusions can be made from the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient for the simulations with the extended record shown in Figure 17. In general, there is a slight deterioration of NSE compared to the values of the verification period 1969-1974, while a relatively bad performance of the Krka @ Podbočje, Vrbas @ Delibašino Selo, and stations on the Bosna River from the verification period has improved over the longer period. However, NSE exceeds the limit of 0.5 for satisfactory performance at all stations, which can be considered a success.

The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) in long-term mean monthly flows are shown in Figure 18. The lowest values of MAPE range around 15%, which is assumed to be an acceptable performance. However, almost half of the stations exhibit higher MAPE of about 20%, with the Beli Brod @ Kolubara station exceeding 30%.

Seasonal distributions of flows at 30 hydrologic stations evaluated from the simulations with the extended record are shown in Appendix G.

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Figure 17: Nash Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) coefficient for monthly flows for simulation with the extended record 1961-1990 1990 (* denotes evaluation based on incomplete streamflow record)

Figure 18: Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in long-term mean monthly flows for simulation with the extended record 1961-19901990 (* denotes evaluation based on incomplete streamflow record)

5 MODEL APPLICATION WITH FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS

5.1 Methodology Investigation of the climate change impacts on the water resources management in the SRB starts with the simulations of the future hydrologic regime in the basin using the hydrologic model and the projected climate from the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the input. To assess the change in runoff under climate change, the runoff simulated with future climate scenarios should be compared to the runoff from some reference period, called baseline runoff.

Page 22 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Due to uncertainties that are attributed to the observed record extension and both climate and hydrologic modelling, the baseline runoff in this study is not the historically observed runoff, but the runoff simulated with baseline climate scenarios from the GCMs. Runoff simulations with the hydrologic model using the baseline and future scenarios provide the means to estimate the relative change rather than the absolute runoff values. The results therefore offer an insight into the range of potential consequences of climate change on water resources at the basin scale.

The results of the hydrologic simulations with baseline and future climate scenarios are used to describe changes in the hydrologic regime of the Sava River and its tributaries. The following indicators of the hydrologic regime are considered to assess the change:

• mean annual runoff, defined as the long-term average flow across years in a given 30-year period, • mean seasonal runoff, defined as the long-term average flow in four seasons across years in a given 30-year period, • high annual flow, defined as the annual flow with 10% probability of exceedance in a given 30- year period, • low annual flow, defined as the annual flow with 90% probability of exceedance in a given 30- year period.

5.2 Climate scenarios as the input to the hydrologic model Having in mind the characteristics of the hydrologic model developed in the HEC-HMS framework, future climate scenarios include daily precipitation and temperature data series and a typical seasonal distribution of monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) as an input for each sub-basin in the model. The precipitation and temperature scenarios were made available by Vujadinovic and Vukovic (2013), as a result from five global/regional climate model (GCM/RCM) simulations under the A1B SRES/IPCC scenario8. Table 4 lists the five GCM/RCM combinations and denotes them as climate models 1 through 5 (CM1 through CM5) for easier communication. For each climate model, daily precipitation and temperature series were produced for three 30-year periods:

• 1961-1990 (past or baseline climate scenario), • 2011-2040 (near future climate scenario), and • 2041-2070 (distant future climate scenario).

The future scenarios for PET were not available from the GCMs, and therefore they had to be defined in another way in order to enable hydrologic simulations. To achieve this with very limited data availability, an approach was adopted to assume that the change in future PET can be assessed from the change in temperature. This approach is described in section 5.2.2.

Table 4: The list of climate scenarios resulting from five GCM/RCM combinations

Climate model GCM RCM CM1 ECHAM5r3 RACMO CM2 ECHAM5r3 REMO CM3 HadCM3Q0 CLM CM4 HadCM3Q0 HadRM3Q0 CM5 ECHAM5r3 RegCM3

8 Scenario from Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) from International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC, 2000).

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5.2.1 Future climate as predicted by climate models The change in temperature and precipitation resulting from five climate models listed in Table 4 for two future time frames, 2011-2040 (near future) and 2041-2070 (far future), compared to the baseline scenario 1961-1990 are briefly described here, while the detailed results are given by Vujadinovic and Vukovic (2013). Figure 19 and Figure 20 present changes in mean annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation for two future time frames; the separate graphs in these figures present results for five climate models and ensemble median values. CM1 CM2 5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 1

0 0 DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN 2011-2040 2041-2070 2011-2040 2041-2070

CM3 CM4 5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 1

0 0 DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN 2011-2040 2041-2070 2011-2040 2041-2070

CM5 Ensemble median 5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 1 temperature (deg C) change temperature temperature change (deg change C) temperature 0 0 DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN 2011-2040 2041-2070 2011-2040 2041-2070

Figure 19: Change in mean annual (ANN) and seasonal (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) temperature for five climate models (CM1 through CM5) and the ensemble median values; box-and-whiskers indicate the range of values across the stations.

Page 24 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Temperature • Temperature shows a clear increasing trend, with little variation over the basin. • The average change in mean annual temperature over all meteorological stations used in the hydrologic model ranges from 0.9 to 1.8°C (median value 1.0°C) for different climate models in the near future and from 2.0 to 3.1°C (median value 2.3°C) in the distant future. • Different climate models predict the most pronounced increase in temperature in different seasons. For the near future, one model predicts the highest increase in summer, two in autumn and two in winter. For the distant future, one model predicts the highest increase in summer, one in both summer and autumn, and three in winter.

Figure 20: Change in mean annual (ANN) and seasonal (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) precipitation for five climate models (CM1 through CM5) and the ensemble median values; box-and whiskers indicate range of values across the stations.

Page 25 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Precipitation • Precipitation shows variable trends, with a lot of variation across the basin and across the climate models and seasons. • The change in mean annual precipitation is generally very small. This is typically a result of having two seasons with significant, but opposing trends. While the average change in mean annual precipitation at all precipitation stations used in the hydrologic model ranges from –6% to +4%, the average change in mean seasonal precipitation ranges from -12% to +14% in the near future and from –32% to +19% in the distant future. The variation across the basin is even greater: the change in mean seasonal precipitation at different stations can be as much as ±30% in the near future and ±40% in the distant future. • A clear increasing or decreasing trend in seasonal precipitation across the whole basin cannot be seen in all models. For the near future, two models predict a clear increasing trend in winter precipitation and a clear decreasing trend in summer precipitation. For the distant future, three models predict a clear increasing trend in winter precipitation and four models predict a clear decreasing trend in summer precipitation.

To conclude, the climate models indicate that there is a general tendency that temperature would increase in the future throughout a year, but especially during winter. Precipitation is expected to increase in winter and decrease in summer.

5.2.2 Scenarios for PET Since future scenarios for potential evapotranspiration were not available from the GCMs, it was necessary to define them in another way in order to enable credible hydrologic simulations. The choice of potential methods was very limited since no information was available on any of the climatological parameters affecting PET (e.g. solar radiation, humidity, wind speed) except the air temperatures, neither for the past climate nor for future projections. It was therefore decided to assume that PET changes with a change in temperature.

It should be noted that the monthly PET used in the calibration and verification of the hydrologic model was taken either from the data gathered from the trend report or from data obtained from riparian experts employed directly by World Bank. PET from the trends report was generally calculated by the riparian consultants using the modified Eagleman method (Eagleman, 1967; Pandzic et al, 2009), while there is no information on the methods of PET calculation for data obtained from the riparian experts. Furthermore, seasonal distribution of monthly PET in HEC-HMS was defined for each subbasin based on available PET from the nearest meteorological station, but these seasonal distributions were further modified if necessary to enhance the model performance in the calibration process.

Having in mind such a variety of sources and methods for the past climate PET data used in the hydrologic model, a reasonable approach would be to define future PET relative to PET for the past climate and not in absolute terms. If the future PET would be calculated using some temperature-based formula with future temperature data, the past and future PET would most probably be inconsistent. Therefore, it was concluded that the temperature-based estimation of PET should be made for both past and future temperatures from climate models in order to determine the change in PET, and then to apply this change to the past climate PET data used in the hydrologic model.

To define change in future PET using the change in temperature, the methods for calculating PET based on the temperatures alone have been considered and the Hargreaves equation (Hargreaves and Samani, 1985) was chosen for further use. This equation is considered to yield results quite comparable to the more complex equations that utilize additional meteorological parameters, such as the Penman-Montieth equation (Xu et al, 2002). The Hargreaves equation for PET (in mm/day) reads:

0.5 PET  0.0023 Ra TD (TC 17.8)

Page 26 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

-2 -1 where Ra is the incoming solar radiation at top of the atmosphere (in MJ m day ), TD is difference between maximum and minimum daily temperatures, and TC is the average daily temperature in °C. The incoming solar radiation Ra is calculated based on astronomical parameters (Allen et al, 1998): G R  SC d ( sin sin   sin  coscos) a  r s s

-2 -1 where GSC is the solar constant (118.08 MJ m day ), φ is latitude (in radians), dr is inverse relative distance between Earth and Sun, ωs is the sunset hour angle (in radians), and δ is solar declination (in radians). The last three parameters are computed from the following expressions:  2   2  d r  1 0.33cos J , s  arccos( tan  tan ),   0.4093sin J 1.405  365   365  where J is the Julian day number.

While the mean daily temperature is readily available for both past and future climate at all relevant locations in the SRB, the minimum and maximum daily temperatures are available only for stations considered from the trends report and are not provided in the future climate scenarios. After analysing available observed minimum and maximum temperature data at several meteorological stations, a difference of TD = 11°C was adopted for further calculations.

The procedure for defining future PET can formally be described in the following way:

1. Retrieve PET used in the model calibration for the reference period, PET(1961-1990). 2. Calculate PET for the reference period using temperature data from a climate model, PET*(1961- 1990). 3. Calculate PET using temperature data from the climate model for two future periods, PET*(2011- 2040) and PET*(2041-2070). 4. Find the change in calculated PET: ∆(2011-2040) = PET*(2011-2040) / PET*(1961-1990), and ∆(2041-2070) = PET*(2041-2070) / PET*(1961-1990). 5. Determine future PET from the past PET and the corresponding change: PET(2011-2040) = PET(1961-1990) * ∆(2011-2040), and PET(2041-2070) = PET(1961-1990) * ∆(2041-2070). The above procedure has been applied to each sub-basin in the hydrologic model and for all five climate models.

5.3 Hydrologic simulation with baseline climate scenarios The results of the model simulations with input from five climate models of past climate 1961-1990 (denoted as CM simulations) were compared to the observed data and the simulations with the extended precipitation and temperature record for 1961-1990 (denoted as ER simulations). It was found that the simulated streamflows are comparable to the observed ones in this period, but only in statistical terms. Neither daily nor monthly hydrographs from CM simulations are comparable to the observed streamflow hydrographs and the hydrographs from ER simulations. An example of these hydrographs is shown in Figure 21.

A closer look into the precipitation and temperature data series from the climate models for 1961- 1990 reveals that these time series do not resemble the observed record, neither on a daily nor on a monthly scale (examples are shown in Figure 22). This is probably a result of attributing the climate

Page 27 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin model output with a coarse spatial resolution to point of location of a meteorological station. Conse- quently, the simulated streamflow hydrographs cannot be expected to be similar to the observed ones. Sava @ Zagreb 1800 1600 1400 /s) 3 1200 (m

1000 flow 800 600

Monthly 400 200 0 31Oct1970 31Oct1971 31Oct1972 31Oct1973 31Oct1974 31Oct1975 observed CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 Figure 21: An example of monthly flow hydrographs simulated with input data from climate models CM1 through CM5 compared to the observed flows.

Figure 22: Examples of daily data from climate models compared to the observed data: temperatures (left) and precipitation (right). On the other hand, mean monthly precipitation and temperatures over 1961-1990 from the climate models are in good agreement with the corresponding observed values, and therefore a reasonable agreement is achieved between simulated and observed mean monthly flows. Examples of seasonal distribution of precipitation are shown in Figure 23, while Figure 24 shows two examples of streamflow seasonal distributions. These two examples are typical representatives of good (Drina @ Bajina Bašta) and not so good (Sava @ Županja) results. The CM simulations in Figure 24 are also compared to the ER simulations beside the observed seasonal streamflow distribution. Although the departures of the CM simulation results from the observed streamflow seasonal distribution can be large, both examples indicate that the CM simulation results are grouped around the results of ER simulations. A similar tendency can be observed in the results at other hydrologic stations (Appendix H). This is expected since the bias correction of the output from climate models was performed using the extended precipitation and temperature record.

On the basis of these results, it can be concluded that the uncertainty inherent in the extended record propagates through the hydrologic model and that, in combination with the GCM/RCM uncertainties, produces variable results in the seasonal distribution of streamflows. Due to the overall uncertainty that comprises all possible sources – observed data uncertainty, uncertainty of the record extension

Page 28 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin procedure, climate modelling uncertainty and finally the hydrologic model uncertainty – the assessment of the impacts on streamflow should preferably be made through a comparative model simulation using reference and scenario conditions which are both generated from a climate model. ZAGREB GRIC SREMSKA MITROVICA 120 100 100 80 (mm)

80 (mm)

60 60 40 40 Precipitation 20 Precipitation 20 0 0 JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND

observed CM1 CM2 observed CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 CM3 CM4 CM5

Figure 23: Examples of mean monthly precipitation for 1961-1990 from climate models compared to the observed data.

2000 Sava @ Županja 700 Drina @ Bajina Bašta 600 1500 500 400 (m3/s) (m3/s)

1000 300 Flow Flow 500 200 100 0 0 JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND

obs. ext. rec. CM1 CM2 obs. ext. rec. CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 CM3 CM4 CM5

Figure 24: Examples of mean monthly streamflows for 1961-1990 from climate models compared to the observed flows and the flows simulated with the extended record of input data.

5.4 Hydrologic simulations with future climate scenarios A total of 15 simulation runs were made with the hydrologic model of the Sava River basin using the input (precipitation, temperature and PET) from 5 different climate scenarios and for 3 periods: reference or baseline period 1961-1990, and two future periods, 2011-2040 and 2041-2070.

For each future time frame, the change in the mean seasonal and mean annual streamflow at all relevant locations in the Sava basin was assessed as the percentage change of future streamflow relative to that in the baseline period: Q  Q FUT BASE 100% QBASE

Page 29 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin where QFUT is the future streamflow predicted by the hydrologic model from future climate scenarios, and QBASE is the streamflow simulated from the input from climate models for the baseline scenario 1961-1990.

The output from the hydrologic model for all runs has been processed into mean annual flows (ANN) and mean flows for four seasons:

• winter: December, January and February (DJF); • spring: March, April and May (MAM); • summer: June, July and August (JJA); • autumn: September, October and November (SON).

Complete results are listed in Appendix I for 50 locations across the Sava basin for five climate scenarios (Tables I1 through I5). Table I6 gives the ensemble median values. The spatial distribution of the ensemble median runoff changes is shown in Appendix J for all seasons and on the annual level. In this appendix, green numbers indicate an increase and red numbers indicate a decrease in streamflow at a given location.

Table 5 presents a synthesis of all results showing the ensemble median change in mean seasonal and annual flows averaged over 50 locations across the Sava basin. Results from all climate models and the ensemble median values are given in Figure 25, where the box-and-whiskers plots describe the range of changes at 50 locations across the basin.

Changes for selected locations in the SRB derived from the simulated runoff for four seasons and on an annual level are presented in Figure 26 to Figure 30 inclusive with separate results for the five climate scenarios. The selected locations include several hydrologic stations along the Sava River and the mouths of the major tributaries. Table 5: Change in ensemble median values of mean seasonal (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) and annual (ANN) runoff, averaged over 50 locations in the Sava basin, and number of locations exhibiting increased or decreased runoff

Time frame 2011-2040 2041-2070 Season DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN Average change 11.0% -9.0% -5.1% 0.4% -1.4% 13.0% -11.4% -15.1% -3.3% -4.7% Minimum change 0.7% -23.1% -17.3% -6.7% -5.0% 3.3% -26.7% -24.3% -18.8% -16.2% Maximum change 22.2% -0.6% 4.4% 13.8% 2.9% 41.9% 3.5% -6.0% 9.9% 7.3% No. of sites with an increase 50 0 8 26 12 50 1 0 18 10 No of sites with a decrease 0 50 42 24 38 0 49 50 32 40

Page 30 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Figure 25: Change in mean seasonal (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) and annual (ANN) runoff for five climate models (CM1 through CM5) and the ensemble median values; box-and-whiskers indicate range of changes across 50 locations in the basin.

Page 31 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

50% 2011‐2040 DJF 50% 2041‐2070 DJF

(%) 40% (%) 40%

flow 30% flow 30%

20% 20% mean mean

in in 10% 10%

0% 0% change change ‐10% ‐10% atež atež Brod Brod

Crnac Crnac kovac kovac Č Č

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Županja Županja @ @ Beograd Beograd @ @

Mitrovica Mitrovica @ @ Slav. Slav. Ma Ma

@ @ @ @ Una Una

S. S. Kupa Kupa

Drina Drina @ @ @ @ Vrbas Vrbas

Bosna Bosna

Sava Sava Sava Sava @ @ Sava Sava

Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava

CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 Figure 26: Change in mean winter (DJF) runoff at selected locations for five climate scenarios.

10% 2011‐2040 MAM 10% 2041‐2070 MAM (%) (%)

0% 0% flow flow ‐10% ‐10% mean mean ‐20% ‐20% in in

‐30% ‐30% change change ‐40% ‐40% atež atež Brod Brod

Crnac Crnac kovac kovac Č Č

mouth mouth mouth mouth mouth mouth mouth mouth mouth mouth č č Zagreb Zagreb

Županja Županja @ @ Beograd Beograd @ @

Mitrovica Mitrovica @ @ Slav. Slav. Ma Ma

@ @ @ @

Una Una

S. S. Kupa Kupa

Drina Drina @ @ @ @ Vrbas Vrbas

Bosna Bosna

Sava Sava Sava Sava @ @ Sava Sava

Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 Figure 27: Change in mean spring (MAM) runoff at selected locations for five climate scenarios.

30% 2011‐2040 JJA 30% 2041‐2070 JJA 20% 20% (%) (%) 10% 10% flow flow 0% 0% ‐10% ‐10% mean mean

in ‐20% in ‐20%

‐30% ‐30%

change ‐40% change ‐40% ‐50% ‐50% atež atež Brod Brod

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Županja Županja @ @ Beograd Beograd @ @

Mitrovica Mitrovica @ @ Slav. Slav. Ma Ma

@ @ @ @

Una Una

S. S. Kupa Kupa

Drina Drina @ @ @ @ Vrbas Vrbas

Bosna Bosna

Sava Sava Sava Sava @ @ Sava Sava

Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 Figure 28: Change in mean summer (JJA) runoff at selected locations for five climate scenarios.

Page 32 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

30% 2011‐2040 SON 30% 2041‐2070 SON

(%) 20% (%) 20%

flow 10% flow 10%

0% 0% mean mean

in in ‐10% ‐10%

‐20% ‐20% change change ‐30% ‐30% atež atež Brod Brod

Crnac Crnac kovac kovac Č Č

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Županja Županja @ @ Beograd Beograd @ @

Mitrovica Mitrovica @ @ Slav. Slav. Ma Ma

@ @ @ @

Una Una

S. S. Kupa Kupa

Drina Drina @ @ @ @ Vrbas Vrbas

Bosna Bosna

Sava Sava Sava Sava @ @ Sava Sava

Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 Figure 29: Change in mean autumn (SON) runoff at selected locations for five climate scenarios.

20% 2011‐2040 ANN 20% 2041‐2070 ANN (%) (%) 10% 10% flow flow

0% 0% mean mean

in in

‐10% ‐10% change change ‐20% ‐20% atež atež Brod Brod

Crnac Crnac kovac kovac Č Č

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Mitrovica Mitrovica @ @ Slav. Slav. Ma Ma

@ @ @ @

Una Una

S. S. Kupa Kupa

Drina Drina @ @ @ @ Vrbas Vrbas

Bosna Bosna

Sava Sava Sava Sava @ @ Sava Sava

Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava Sava CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 Figure 30: Change in mean annual (ANN) runoff at selected locations for five climate scenarios. A general conclusion that can be made from the results is that change in the hydrologic regime corre- sponds to the projected change in precipitation and temperature. The most notable change in both the near and distant future is the increase of stream flow in the winter season for 11% and 13% respectively on average, as the result of the increased precipitation and a significant increase in temperatures. The higher temperatures and increased precipitation in the winter season suggest that there would be either smaller share of snow compared to rainfall or more snowmelt, but both alternatives lead to greater winter stream flow. This increase is evident in the results from all five climate scenarios in both time frames (Figure 26) and over the whole basin (Figure 25 and maps in Appendix J).

A substantial decrease of stream flow is expected in the spring and summer seasons, but somewhat differently in the near and distant future. The spring decrease is clear in both near and distant future over the whole basin, being greater in the distant future with greater variation over the basin. Summer runoff decreases in the near future according to four scenarios, and increases according to scenario CM5 (Figure 28). Because of the positive changes for CM5, the ensemble median decrease is mod- erate (on average around 5.1%), with 8 locations exhibiting an increase. In the distant future, summer runoff decreases substantially by about 15% on average and clearly over the basin. This behaviour is mostly following the pattern of decreased precipitation and higher temperatures projected by the climate models, except that the near future summer runoff reduction is less pronounced despite greater reduction of precipitation.

Page 33 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

The autumn season exhibits a very small change in average for both the near and distant future. The five scenarios produce changes in basin response with opposite signs, so that the change in ensemble median runoff is almost negligible in the near future (on average +0.4%) with almost equal number of locations exhibiting increase and decrease. For the distant future the stations are exhibiting a pre- vailing decrease over those with an increase, so that the average change in ensemble median runoff across the basin is small, but negative (-3.3%).

The overall change in runoff on an annual level is small as a result of opposite winter and spring/summer trends. Similarly to the autumn runoff, the five scenarios produce annual runoff changes of opposite signs, which results in a small decrease in ensemble median runoff for the near future (an average of 1.4%). In the distant future this decrease becomes more pronounced (an average of 4.7%) despite a very similar proportion of the number of locations with decreased runoff to that in the near future (40 compared to 38). change (%) change (%)

Q90: 2011-2040 Q90: 2041-2070 40 40

20 20

0 0

-20 -20 change (%) change (%) -40 -40

-60 -60 CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 Ens.med. CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5 Ens.med. Figure 31: Change in high (Q10) and low (Q90) annual flows; box-and-whiskers indicate range of changes across 50 locations in the basin. Changes in high and low annual flows, defined as the flow with 10% and 90% respective probability of exceedance in the 30-year series of mean annual flows, are shown in Figure 31. The results indicate that low annual flows are subject to a small reduction, meaning that the proportion of very dry years would slightly increase. On the other hand, high annual flows show greater reduction, indicating that the proportion of very wet years would decrease. Altogether, these results are in accordance with the fairly small overall reduction in runoff on an annual level, as shown in Table 5.

6 REMARKS ON UNCERTAINTY OF THE RESULTS The hydrologic simulations with climate projections from the global climate models are widely used to assess the potential impact of climate change. However, it should be noted that there are a number of

Page 34 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin uncertainties associated with making such projections. Uncertainty is introduced at each stage of this process (Gosling et al. 2011):

• Uncertainty in definition of greenhouse gas emission scenarios exist because of unpredictability of future economic and societal development. • Climate model structural uncertainty causes different GCMs to produce different projections for the same scenario. • Uncertainty is also related to downscaling GCM projections to finer spatial and temporal scales for hydrological modelling. • Hydrological models used to translate climatological changes to hydrological impacts add additional uncertainty.

GCM uncertainty has frequently been found to be the largest source of uncertainty, followed by the emissions scenarios and hydrological modelling (Bates et al, 2008; Gosling et al. 2011). Uncertainty coming from GCMs is associated with limitations and assumptions in representing the physics of some of the key processes and the coarse grid size. In addition to this structural uncertainty, climate models are sensitive to the initial conditions. Different model structure and different initial conditions are the reason why GCMs developed by different climate modelling institutions result in different climate projections for a single greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The climate model structural uncertainty is usually assessed by using an ensemble of climate projections from GCMs and producing an ensemble of impact projections, which is the approach applied in this study. However, it should be noted that only precipitation and temperature scenarios were available, while the future tendencies in potential evapotranspiration (PET) had to be devised from the temperature scenarios due to the lack of data necessary for PET calculations.

The coarse spatial resolution of GCM results is not suitable for a reasonable description of the hydrologic systems. The downscaling methods are therefore used to downscale the climate model output to a finer resolution. Two approaches are typically applied, statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling. The former uses statistical relationships to convert the GCM output from large to finer scales. A central assumption of statistical downscaling is that the downscaling relationship derived for the present day will also be valid in the future. The climate projections used in this study are downscaled from GCMs using regional climate modelling as a dynamical downscaling tool (Vujadi- novic and Vukovic, 2013). This approach is generally thought to be subject to fewer uncertainties than the statistical downscaling approach.

In addition to downscaling, the GCM output is also corrected for bias (Vujadinovic and Vukovic, 2013). The bias correction procedure is applied to raw GCM output to obtain the series having statistical properties (primarily the mean) of the observed data. This is particularly important for precipitation projections, where differences between the observed values and those computed by climate models can be considerable. The procedure consists of mapping the observed data frequency distribution to that of the raw GCM output using an empirically developed transfer function. The transfer function is identified on the data from the baseline period and then applied to GCM output for future periods. A source of potential uncertainty is the underlying assumption on stationarity of the transfer function.

When the downscaled and bias-corrected climate data is used as the input to a hydrological model, both the model structure and parameters contribute to the overall uncertainty. The model uncertainty arises from the simplifications that are necessary to describe the hydrologic cycle at the current level of knowledge on the relevant processes and with available data. The modelling methods in HEC-HMS used in this study can generally be characterised as simple because they require a minimum of input data, but their use was dictated by data availability. The parameter uncertainty arises from the possi- bility that the “optimal” parameter values obtained through the model calibration process may not be close to the real physical parameters of the processes on the catchment. The performance of the hydrologic model of the SRB developed in HEC-HMS has proved to be good at the majority of locations across the basin, so that the authors believe that the hydrologic regime of the Sava River and its tributaries is well represented by the model at the scale of the study. Nevertheless, further improvements

Page 35 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin would be possible with a hydrologic model that would be able to better describe the subsurface water storage in the basin, especially in the karst areas which are present in the SRB. However, such a model would require more detailed data from the basin that may not be readily available.

Additional uncertainty in this study is associated with the climate data record extension described in section 2.4. Filling in the gaps and extending data records was necessary in order to make a reasonable coverage of the SRB in the reference period 1961-1990. The extended observed data record was the basis for creating future precipitation and temperature daily series by Vujadinovic and Vukovic (2013) through the bias correction procedure, thereby adding to the uncertainties emanating from climate modelling. However, the authors believe that the impact of this additional uncertainty is avoided or at least significantly reduced by taking the bias-corrected GCM output for 1961-1990 as the baseline climate input for the hydrologic model instead of the observed climate data, and then evaluating the hydrologic change by comparing runoff simulations with GCM output for future time frames with that for the reference period 1961-1990. In other words, the baseline runoff in this study was not the historically observed runoff, but the runoff simulated with baseline climate scenarios from GCMs.

Finally, it should be noted that the runoff simulated with climate data from the GCMs can only be taken into further analysis of impacts on water management with its mean annual or seasonal values over the 30-year periods and not as the daily or monthly time series. In other words, the resulting streamflow series should not be treated as long-term forecasts. While it could be said that the mean values and the variation of the future runoff on monthly time scale are well represented by the modelling results, this is not the case with extreme runoff. In the domain of floods, simulated runoff does not yield representative results mainly as a consequence of unrealistically high daily precipitation produced by GCMs. A different approach is needed to assess the flooding potential under climate change that would be able to capture changes in extreme precipitation and the basin response under such input. Such an approach has been applied by Brilly et al. in a separate report to the World Bank.

7 REFERENCES 1. Allen, R.G., Pereira, L.S., Raes, D., Smith, M. (1998) Crop evapotranspiration - Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. ISBN 92-5-104219-5. Available at http://www.fao.org/docrep/x0490e/x0490e00.htm (retrieved May, 2010). 2. Bates, B.C., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Wu, S. and Palutikof, J.P. (Eds.) (2008) Climate Change and Water. Tech- nical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp. 3. Bergström, S. (1976) Development and application of a conceptual runoff model for Scandinavian catchments. SMHI Reports RHO, No. 7, Norrköping. 4. Bergström, S. (1992) The HBV model - its structure and applications. SMHI Reports RH, No. 4, Norrköping. 5. COWI (2012) Update of the Water Resources Management Basis for the Vrbas River Basin, project report for the World Bank. 6. Eagleman, J.R. (1967) Pan evaporation, potential and actual evapotranspiration, J. Appl. Meteor., 6: 482– 488. 7. Farr, T.G., Rosen, P.A., Caro, E., Crippen, R., Duren, R., Hensley, S., Kobrick, M., Paller, M., Rodriguez, E., Roth, L., Seal, D., Shaffer, S., Shimada, J., Umland, J., Werner, M., Oskin, M., Burbank, M. and Alsdorf, D. (2007) The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Reviews of Geophysics, 45, RG2004. 8. Gosling, S.N., Taylor, R.G., Arnell, N.W. and Todd, M.C. (2011). A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 279–294. 9. Gross, G. (1992) Results of supercomputer simulations of meteorological phenomena. Fluid. Dyn. Res., 10: 483-498. 10. IPCC (2000) Emission Scenarios, Nakićenović N. and Swart R. (eds.), International Panel on Climate Change (available at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml#.UpCKgtI3vpw)

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11. IPCC (2007) Kundzewicz, Z.W., L.J. Mata, N.W. Arnell, P. Döll, P. Kabat, B. Jiménez, K.A. Miller, T. Oki, Z. Sen and I.A. Shiklomanov: Freshwater resources and their management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the In- tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 173-210. 12. Haddeland I. et al. (2013) Effects of climate change in the Kolubara and Toplica catchments, Serbia. Nor- wegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) and Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Ser- bia. Publ. by NVE, Oslo, Norway, Report No. 62, ISBN 978-82-410-0932-7. 13. Hargreaves, G. H. and Samani, Z. A. (1985) Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature, Appl. Eng. Agric., 1(2): 96–99. 14. ISRBC (2009) Sava River Basin Analysis Report, International Sava River Basin Commission, Zagreb (available at http://www.savacommission.org). 15. Kobold, M. and Brilly, M. (2006) The use of HBV model for flash flood forecasting, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 407–417. 16. Moriasi, D.N., Arnold, J.G., Van Liew, M.W., Bingner, R.L., Harmel, R.D. and Veith, T.L. (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations, Trans. Am. Soc. Agric. and Biol. Eng., 50(3): 885−900. 17. Pandzic, K., Trninic, D., Likso, T. and Bosnjak, T. (2008) Long-term variations in water balance components for Croatia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 95, 39-51. 18. Primožič, M., Kobold, M. and Brilly, M. (2008) The implementation of the HBV Model on the Sava River Basin, XXIVth Conference of the Danubian Countries, IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 4, 012004, doi:10.1088/1755-1307/4/1/012004. 19. Prohaska, S. (2009) Hydrology Report for the Sava River Basin Analysis, Final Report for International Sa- va River Basin Commission. 20. Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Slovenia (2001) Hidrološki model Save do Zidanega Mosta v pro- gramskem okolju WMS, Republika Slovenija, Ministrstvo za okolje in prostor, report by Mira Kobold, pp. 30. 21. USACE (2000) Feldman, A.D. (ed.): Hydrologic Modeling System HEC-HMS Technical Reference Manual, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA. 22. USACE (2010) Scharffenberg, W.A. and Fleming, M.J.: Hydrologic Modeling System HEC-HMS User’s Manual, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA. 23. USACE (2011) Description of HEC-HMS Development, Memorandum from Brantley Thames to ISRBC, Joint USACE/ISRBC project “Flood mapping study for the Sava river – 1st phase, Implemented Sep 2009 – Apr 2011” (by courtesy of ISRBC). 24. Vujadinović, M. and Vuković, A. (2013) Water and Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin: De- velopment of climate scenarios, report to the World Bank. 25. World Bank 2011- Climate Trends in the Sava River Basin – South East Europe Water and Climate Adap- tation Study - funded by the Water Partnership Program. 26. Xu, C.-Y. and Singh, V. P. (2002) Cross Comparison of Empirical Equations for Calculating Potential Evap- otranspiration with Data from Switzerland, Water Resources Management, 16: 197–219.

Page 37 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

APPENDIX A: Inventory of collected data

Table A1: List of hydrologic stations with data available from the trend analysis

Used No. Station name Stream Basin Country Available daily streamflow data in model 1 Šentjakob Sava Sava (1) SLO 1957-2008 yes 2 Moste Ljubljanica Sava (1) SLO 1950-2008 yes 3 Litija Sava Sava (1) SLO 1950-2008 yes 4 Laško Savinja Sava (1) SLO 1950-2008 yes 5 Podbočje Krka Sava (1) SLO 1950-2008 yes 6 Čatež Sava Sava (1) SLO 1976-2008 yes 7 Zagreb Sava Sava (2) CRO 1926-2009 yes 8 Kamanje Kupa Kupa (3) CRO 1957-2009 9 Veliko Vukovje Ilova Sava (4) CRO 1947-2008 10 Martin Brod nizv. Una Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1953-1990; 2005-2008 11 Kralje Una Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990; 2002-2008 yes 12 Ključ Sana Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990; 2005-2008 13 Sanski Most Sana Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1952-1990; 2001-2008 14 Prijedor Sana Una (5) BiH-RS 1980-1988; 1995-2009 yes 15 Novi Grad nizv. Una Una (5) BiH-RS 1980-1990; 1993-1999; 2002-2009 yes 16 Kozluk (Jajce) Vrbas Vrbas (7) BiH-FBiH 1971-1989; 2005-2007 17 Banja Luka Vrbas Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 1958-1990; 1992; 1996-2009 18 Vrbanja Vrbanja Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 1961-1990; 1997-2009 19 Delibašino selo Vrbas Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 1962-2009 yes 20 Pleternica Orljava Sava (8) CRO 1946-2008 21 Reljevo Bosna Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1960-1990; 2001-2006 22 Merdani Lašva Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1963-1988; 2001-2006 23 Zavidovići Krivaja Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990; 2001-2006 24 Maglaj Bosna Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1964-1990; 2001-2006 yes 25 Doboj Bosna Bosna (9) BiH-RS 1987-1990; 1994-2009 yes 26 Županja Sava Sava (10) CRO 1929-1942; 1945-2009 yes 27 Foča nizv. Drina Drina (11) BiH-RS 1980-1990; 2005-2008 yes 28 Brodarevo Lim Drina (11) SRB 1961-2008 29 Prijepolje Lim Drina (11) SRB 1925-1988; 1990-2008 30 Priboj Lim Drina (11) SRB 1962-1992; 1994-2008 yes 31 Cedovo Vapa Drina (11) SRB 1959-2008 32 Bajina Basta Drina Drina (11) SRB 1926-2008 yes 33 Radalj Drina Drina (11) SRB 1979-2003; 2006-2008 yes 34 Sremska Sava Sava (12) SRB 1926-2008 yes Mitrovica 35 Valjevo Kolubara Kolubara (13) SRB 1957-2008 36 Slovac Kolubara Kolubara (13) SRB 1954-2008 37 Draževac Kolubara Kolubara (13) SRB 1951-2000 38 Donji Miholjac Drava not in the CRO 1946-2009 Sava basin

Page 38 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Table A2: List of meteorological stations with precipitation (P) and temperature (T) data available from the trend analysis

Used in model No. Station name Basin Country Available P and T data P T 1 Bajina Bašta Drina (11) SRB 1961-2008 yes 2 Banja Luka Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 1983-2009 yes yes 3 Beograd - Opservatorija Sava (14) SRB 1936-2008 yes yes 4 Bihać Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1951-1992; 1999-2009 yes yes 5 Bijeljina Drina (11) BiH-RS 2001-2009 6 Bogatić Sava (12) SRB 1965-1993 7 Bugojno Vrbas (7) BiH-FBiH 1951-1993; 1995-2009 yes yes 8 Celje Sava (1) SLO 1951-2009 yes yes 9 Doboj Bosna (9) BiH-RS 1997-2009 yes 10 Donji Miholjac not in the Sava basin CRO 1956-2009 11 Goražde Drina (11) BiH-FBiH 1951-1991, 2002-2009 yes yes 12 Kočevje Sava (1) SLO 1951-2009 P; 1952-2009 T 13 Kredarica Sava (1) SLO 1955-2009 14 Krvavec Sava (1) SLO 1961-2008 15 Ljubljana - Bežigrad Sava (1) SLO 1951-2009 yes yes 16 Ljubovija Drina (11) SRB 1965-2008 yes yes 17 Loznica Drina (11) SRB 1952-2008 yes yes 18 Novo Mesto Sava (1) SLO 1951-2009 yes yes 19 Ogulin Kupa (3) CRO 1949-2009 yes yes 20 Postojna Sava (1) SLO 1951-2008 yes 21 Prijedor Una (5) BiH-RS 1994-2009 yes 22 Rateče Sava (1) SLO 1951-2008 yes 23 Šabac Sava (12) SRB 1965-2008 24 Sanski Most Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1951-2009 yes yes 25 Sarajevo Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1901-2009 yes yes 26 Šid Sava (12) SRB 1965-1991 27 Sjenica Drina (11) SRB 1946-2008 yes 28 Slavonski Brod Sava (8) CRO 1963-2009 yes yes 29 Sokolac Drina (11) BiH-RS 1991-2008 yes 30 Sremska Mitrovica Sava (12) SRB 1949-2008 yes yes 31 Valjevo Kolubara (13) SRB 1949-2008 yes yes 32 Zagreb - Grič Sava (2) CRO 1862-2009 yes yes 33 Zlatibor Drina (11) SRB 1950-2008 yes

Page 39 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Table A3: List of meteorological stations with potential evapotranspiration (PET) data available from the trend analysis

No. Station name Basin Country Available PET data 1 Bajina Bašta Drina (11) SRB 1961-2008 2 Banja Luka Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 1983-2009* 3 Beograd - Opservatorija Sava (14) SRB 1936-2008 4 Bihać Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1951-1991; 2000-2009 5 Bijeljina Drina (11) BiH-RS - 6 Bogatić Sava (12) SRB 1965-1993 7 Bugojno Vrbas (7) BiH-FBiH 1951-1991; 1996-2009 8 Celje Sava (1) SLO 1961-2009 9 Doboj Bosna (9) BiH-RS 1997-2009* 10 Donji Miholjac not in the Sava basin CRO 1956-2009 11 Goražde Drina (11) BiH-FBiH 1951-1991, 2002-2009 12 Kočevje Sava (1) SLO 1961-2009 13 Kredarica Sava (1) SLO 1961-2009 14 Krvavec Sava (1) SLO 1961-2000 15 Ljubljana - Bežigrad Sava (1) SLO 1961-2009 16 Ljubovija Drina (11) SRB 1952-2008 17 Loznica Drina (11) SRB 1965-2008 18 Novo Mesto Sava (1) SLO 1961-2009 19 Ogulin Kupa (3) CRO 1949-2009 20 Postojna Sava (1) SLO 1961-2008 21 Prijedor Una (5) BiH-RS - 22 Rateče Sava (1) SLO - 23 Šabac Sava (12) SRB 1965-2008 24 Sanski Most Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1951-2009 25 Sarajevo Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1901-2009 26 Šid Sava (12) SRB 1965-1989 27 Sjenica Drina (11) SRB 1946-2008 28 Slavonski Brod Sava (8) CRO 1963-2009 29 Sokolac Drina (11) BiH-RS - 30 Sremska Mitrovica Sava (12) SRB 1949-2008 31 Valjevo Kolubara (13) SRB 1949-2008 32 Zagreb - Grič Sava (2) CRO 1862-2009 33 Zlatibor Drina (11) SRB 1950-2008 *Note: daily values unrealistically high, monthly values reasonable.

Page 40 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Table A4: Hydrologic data gathered by the riparian experts

Used No. Station name Stream Basin Country Delivered daily flow data in model 1 Radovljica Sava Sava (1) SLO 1913-2010 2 Okroglo Sava Sava (1) SLO 1987-2008; 2010 3 Suha Sora Sava (1) SLO 1945-1990; 1992-2010 4 Šentjakob Sava Sava (1) SLO 2009-2010 yes 5 Moste Ljubljanica Sava (1) SLO 2009-2010 yes 6 Litija Sava Sava (1) SLO 2009-2010 yes 7 Nazarje Savinja Sava (1) SLO 1926-2011 8 Laško Savinja Sava (1) SLO 2009-2010 yes 9 Podbočje Krka Sava (1) SLO 2009-2010 yes 10 Čatež Sava Sava (1) SLO 1961-2010 yes 11 Rakovec Sutla/Sotla Sava (2) SLO 1926-1941; 1946--2010 12 Jesenice na Sava Sava (2) SLO 1991-2010 Dolenjskem 13 Kupljenovo Krapina Sava (2) CRO 1969-2011 14 Podsused Sava Sava (2) CRO 1969-2011 15 Zagreb Sava Sava (2) CRO 1969-2011 yes 16 Rugvica Sava Sava (2) CRO 1969-1995; 2000-2003; 2005; yes 2007-2011 17 Kamanje Kupa Kupa (3) CRO 2010-2011 18 Stative Donje Donja Dobra Kupa (3) CRO 1969-2011 19 Brodarci Kupa Kupa (3) CRO 1969-2010 yes 20 Veljun Korana Kupa (3) CRO 1969-1991; 1997-2011 21 Juzbašići Mrežnica Kupa (3) CRO 1969-1990; 1997-2011 22 Jamnička Kiselica Kupa Kupa (3) CRO 1969-1992; 2000-2010 yes 23 Šišinec Kupa Kupa (3) CRO 1969-1991; 2008-2010 24 Glina Glina Kupa (3) CRO 1969-1990; 1997-2011 25 Farkašić Kupa Kupa (3) CRO 1969-1990; 2000-2010 yes 26 Crnac Sava Sava (4) CRO 1969-1992; 2001-2005; 2007- yes 2011 27 Veliko Vukovje Ilova Sava (4) CRO 2009-2010 28 Martin Brod uzv. Una Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990 29 Rmanj Manastir Unac Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990; 2006-2008 30 Martin Brod nizv. Una Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1953-1990; 2004-2008 31 Štrbački Buk Una Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990 32 Kralje Una Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990; 2002-2008 yes 33 Novi Grad uzv. Una Una (5) BiH-RS 1961-1990 34 Ključ Sana Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990; 2005-2008 35 Hrustovo Sanica Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1966-1990; 2005-2008 36 Sanski Most Sana Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1952-1990; 2001-2008 37 Prijedor Sana Una (5) BiH-RS 1952-1990; 2010-2011 yes 38 Novi Grad nizv. Una Una (5) BiH-RS 1961-1990; 2010-2011 yes 39 Kostajnica Una Una (5) CRO 1969-1991; 2002-2010 yes 40 Jasenovac Sava Sava (6) CRO 1969-1991; 1996-2011 yes 41 Stara Gradiška Sava Sava (6) CRO 1969-1991; 2005-2011 42 Mačkovac Sava Sava (6) CRO 1969-1990; 2005-2011 yes 43 Gornji Vakuf Vrbas Vrbas (7) BiH-FBiH 1946-1964; 1966-1988 44 Daljan Vrbas Vrbas (7) BiH-FBiH 1971-1990; 2006-2009 45 Han Skela Vrbas Vrbas (7) BiH-FBiH 1969-1970*; 1971-1990 yes 46 Volari Pliva Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 1969-1973, 1977-1980, 1982- yes 1989* 47 Kozluk (Jajce) Vrbas Vrbas (7) BiH-FBiH 1971-1989; 2005-2009; 2010* 48 Bočac Vrbas Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 1969-1973; 1983-1989* yes 49 Banja Luka Vrbas Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 1961-1990; 2010-2011 50 Vrbanja Vrbanja Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 1961-1990 51 Delibašino selo Vrbas Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 1962-1990 yes 52 Davor Sava Sava (8) CRO 1969-1993; 2005; 2007-2011 yes

Page 41 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Used No. Station name Stream Basin Country Delivered daily flow data in model 53 Pleternica Orljava Sava (8) CRO 2009-2010 54 Frkljevci Orljava Sava (8) CRO 2005-2010 55 Slavonski Brod Sava Sava (8) CRO 1969-1993; 2004-2011 yes 56 Blažuj Zujevina Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1966-1990; 2002-2009 57 Sarajevo Miljacka Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1951-1990; 2003-2009 58 Reljevo Bosna Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1951-1990; 2000-2009 59 Visoko Fojnica Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1963-1988; 2006-2009 60 Dobrinje Bosna Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990 yes 61 Merdani Lašva Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990; 2001-2009 62 Raspotočje Bosna Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990; 2001-2009 yes 63 Zavidovići Bosna Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990; 2001-2009 64 Maglaj Bosna Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990; 2001-2009 yes 65 Kaloševići Usora Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990; 2006-2009 66 Modrac Spreča Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1961-1990; 2002-2007 67 Karanovac Spreča Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1951-1990; 2003-2008 68 Doboj Bosna Bosna (9) BiH-RS 1961-1990 yes 69 Modriča Bosna Bosna (9) BiH-RS 1961-1990 70 Županja Sava Sava (10) CRO 1969-2011 yes 71 Igoče (nova) Sutjeska Drina (11) BiH-RS 1978-1979 72 Bastasi Drina Drina (11) BiH-RS 1959; 1965-1972; 1974; 1976; 1978; 1980-1989 73 Foča uzv. Drina Drina (11) BiH-RS 1965-1968; 1970-1973 74 Vikoč Ćehotina Drina (11) BiH-RS 1965-1968; 1971; 1973; 1976; 1978; 1980-1984; 1987-1989 75 Foča Ćehotina Drina (11) BiH-RS 1965-1968; 1970; 1980-1983; 1985; 1987-1989 76 Foča nizv. Drina Drina (11) BiH-RS 1967-1971; 1973; 1977-1978; yes 1980-1989; 2004-2007 77 Goražde Drina Drina (11) BiH-FBiH 1946-1991; 2005-2008 78 Brodarevo Lim Drina (11) SRB 2009-2010 79 Prijepolje Lim Drina (11) SRB 2009-2010 80 Priboj Lim Drina (11) SRB 2009-2010 yes 81 Rudo Lim Drina (11) BiH-RS 1985 82 Strmica Lim Drina (11) BiH-RS 1973-1976; 1978-1984; 1986- 1988 83 Bajina Basta Drina Drina (11) SRB 2009-2010 yes 84 Radalj Drina Drina (11) SRB 2009-2010 yes 85 Sremska Mitrovica Sava Sava (12) SRB 2009-2010 yes 86 Slovac Kolubara Kolubara (13) SRB 2009-2011 87 Bogovađa Ljig Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005- 2011 88 Beli Brod Kolubara Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005- yes 2011 * Data from the Vrbas study (COWI, 2012)

Page 42 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Table A5: Precipitation and temperature data gathered by riparian experts and obtained from HMS of Montenegro

Used in Data No Station name Basin Country Delivered daily data model type P T 1 Babno Polje Sava (1) SLO 1969-1991; 2003-2011 P, T 2 Bajina Bašta Drina (11) SRB 2009-2010 P, T yes 3 Banja Luka Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 1969-1974; 1979-1982 P; 1979-1984 T; 2010- P, T yes yes 2011 4 Beograd - Sava (14) SRB 2009-2010 P, T yes yes Opservatorija 5 Berane Drina (11) MNE 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2010 P,T P, T 6 Bihać Una (5) BiH-FBiH 2005-2010 P, T yes yes 7 Bijeljina Drina (11) BiH-RS 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2010-2011 P, T 8 Bijelo Polje Drina (11) MNE 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2010 P,T P, T yes yes 9 Bizeljsko - Zgornja Sava (2) SLO 1969-2011 P, T yes Sušica 10 Bjelašnica Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2010 P, T 11 Bjelovar Sava (4) CRO 1969-2011 P, T yes 12 Brežđe Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P; 2005-2011 P P yes 13 Brnik - Letališče Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P, T 14 Bugojno Vrbas (7) BiH-FBiH 2005-2010 P, T yes yes 15 Celje Sava (1) SLO 2010-2011 P, T yes yes 16 Čemerno Drina (11) BiH-RS 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2011 P, T (gaps) P, T yes 17 Cerknica Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P P 18 Črnomelj - Dobliče Kupa (3) SLO 1969-2011 P, T yes 19 Daruvar Sava (4) CRO 1978-2011 P, T 20 Davča Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P P 21 Doboj Bosna (9) BiH-RS 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2010-2011 P, T yes 22 Donje Leskovice Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P; 2005-2011 P P 23 Dražgoše Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P P 24 Drinić Una (5) BiH-RS 1970-1974 P; 1969-1974 T; 1979-1984; 2005- P, T yes 2011 T; 2007-2011 P 25 Drvar Una (5) BiH-FBiH 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2010 P, T yes yes 26 Foča Drina (11) BiH-RS 1969-1974 T; 1979-1984 T; 2007-2011 P, T 27 Goražde Drina (11) BiH-FBiH 2005-2010 P, T yes yes 28 Gornji grad Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P P 29 Gradiška Sava (6) BiH-RS 1969-1974 T; 1971-1974 P; 1979-1983 P; P, T 1979-1984 T; 2005-2011 P, T (gaps) 30 Gradište (Županja) Sava (10) CRO 1981-2011 P, T 31 Han Pijesak Drina (11) BiH-RS 1969-1974 T; 1979-1984 T; 2007-2011 P, T 32 Ivan Sedlo Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2010 P, T yes 33 Jajce Vrbas (7) BiH-FBiH 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2010 P, T yes yes 34 Kal pri Krmelju Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P P 35 Kamenica Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P; 2005-2011 P P 36 Karlovac Kupa (3) CRO 1969-2011 P, T yes yes 37 Koceljeva Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P; 2005-2011 P P yes 38 Kočevje Sava (1) SLO 2009-2011 P, T 39 Kolašin Drina (11) MNE 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2010 P,T P, T yes 40 Kostanjevica - Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P P Brod 41 Krapina Sava (2) CRO 1993-2011 P, T 42 Kredarica Sava (1) SLO 2010-2011 P, T 43 Križevci Sava (4) CRO 1969-2011 P, T yes 44 Krvavec Sava (1) SLO 2009-2011 P, T 45 Lajkovac Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P P 46 Ljig Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P; 2005-2011 P P 47 Ljubljana - Beži- Sava (1) SLO 2010-2011 P, T yes yes grad 48 Ljubovija Drina (11) SRB 2009-2010 P, T yes yes

Page 43 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Used in Data No Station name Basin Country Delivered daily data model type P T 49 Ložice Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P P 50 Loznica Drina (11) SRB 2009-2010 P, T yes yes 51 Majinovići Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P; 2005-2011 P P yes 52 Malkovec Sava (1) SLO 1969-1977; 1985-2011 P, T 53 Mojkovac Drina (11) MNE 2005-2010 (gaps) P, T 54 Moravče Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P P 55 Mrkonjić Grad Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 1969-1974 T; 1979-1984 T; 2005-2011 P, T 56 Nova Vas na Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P, T Blokah 57 Novi Grad Una (5) BiH-RS 1969-1970 P; 1972-1974 P; 1969-1974 T; P, T yes 1979-1984; 2005-2011 58 Novo Mesto Sava (1) SLO 2010-2011 P, T yes yes 59 Novska (Gorice) Sava (6) CRO 1981-1991; 1996-2011 P, T 60 Obrenovac Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P P 61 Ogulin Kupa (3) CRO 2010-2011 P, T yes yes 62 Parg Kupa (3) CRO 1969-2011 P, T yes 63 Planina pod Golico Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P, T 64 Pljevlja Drina (11) MNE 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2010 P,T P, T 65 Plužine Drina (11) MNE 2005-2010 (gaps) P, T 66 Postojna Sava (1) SLO 2009-2011 P, T yes 67 Preddvor Sava (1) SLO 1969-1990 P; 1991-2011 P, T P, T 68 Prijedor Una (5) BiH-RS 1969-1970 P; 1972-1974 P; 1969-1974 T; P, T yes 1979-1980 P; 1979-1984 T; 2010-2011 69 Puntjarka Sava (2) CRO 1981-2011 P, T 70 Rateče Sava (1) SLO 2009-2011 P, T yes 71 Ribnik Una (5) BiH-RS 2005-2011 P, T 72 Rudnik Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P; 2005-2011 P P yes 73 Šavnik Drina (11) MNE 2005-2010 P, T 74 Šćepan Polje Drina (11) MNE 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P; 2005-2010 P P yes 75 Sevno Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P P 76 Šipovo Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 2007-2011 P P 77 Sisak Sava (2) CRO 1969-2011 P, T yes yes 78 Sjenica Drina (11) SRB 2009-2010 P, T yes 79 Slavonski Brod Sava (8) CRO 2010-2011 P, T yes yes 80 Slavonski Šamac Sava (10) CRO 1969-1980 P P yes 81 Sokolac Drina (11) BiH-RS 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2009-2011 P, T yes 82 Srbac Vrbas (7) BiH-RS 2005-2011 P, T (gaps) P, T 83 Sremska Mitrovica Sava (12) SRB 2009-2010 P, T yes yes 84 Štavica Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P; 2005-2011 P P 85 Topol pri Medvo- Sava (1) SLO 1969-1988 P; 1989-2011 P, T P, T dah 86 Tuzla Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2010 P, T yes yes 87 Valjevo Kolubara (13) SRB 2009-2010 P, T yes yes 88 Venčane Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P; 2005-2011 P P 89 Vinji Vrh pri Beli Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P P Cerkvi 90 Višegrad Drina (11) BiH-RS 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2011 P, T (gaps) P, T yes 91 Vranić Kolubara (13) SRB 1969-1974 P; 1979-1984 P P 92 Žabljak Drina (11) MNE 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2010 P,T P, T yes yes 93 Zagreb - Grič Sava (2) CRO 2010-2011 P, T yes yes 94 Zagreb - Maksimir Sava (2) CRO 1969-2011 P, T 95 Zdenska Vas Sava (1) SLO 1983-2011 P P 96 Želimlje Sava (1) SLO 1969-2011 P P 97 Zenica Bosna (9) BiH-FBiH 1969-1974; 1979-1984; 2005-2010 P, T yes yes 98 Zlatibor Drina (11) SRB 2009-2010 P, T yes

Page 44 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Figure A1. Locations of hydrologic stations with available data. data. available with stations hydrologic of Locations A1. Figure

Page 45 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Figure A2. Locations of meteorological stations with available data. data. available with stations meteorological of Locations A2. Figure

Page 46 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

APPENDIX B: Elements in the Sava hydrologic model

Table B1: Inventory of the HEC-HMS elements in the Sava hydrologic model

Basin Element Name Element Description Model Type 01 01_S1_StJakob HS0101 Subbasin Sava @ HS Šent Jakob 01_R1_StJakob - Litija Reach Sava from HS Sent Jakob to HS Litija 01_S2_ Moste HS0102 Subbasin Ljubljanica @ HS Moste 01_R2_Moste - Litija Reach Ljubljanica from HS Moste to the mouth, Sava to HS Litija 01_S3_Litija Subbasin Contributing areas: (1) Sava from HS Št. Jakob to the Ljubljanica mouth, (2) Ljubljanica from HS Moste to the mouth, (3) Sava from the Ljubljanica mouth to HS Litija 01_J1_Litija HS0103 Junction Sava @ HS Litija 01_R3_Litija - usce Savinje Reach Sava from HS Litija to the Savinja mouth 01_S5_Lasko HS0104 Subbasin Savinja @ HS Laško 01_R4_Lasko - usce Savinje Reach Savinja from HS Laško to the mouth 01_S4_Usce Savinje Subbasin Contributing areas: (1) Sava from HS Litija to the Savinja mouth, (2) Savinja from HS Laško to the Savinja mouth 01_J2_Usce Savinje Junction Savinja mouth 01_R5_Usce Savinje - Catez Reach Savinja mouth to HS Čatež 01_S8_Podbocje HS0105 Subbasin Krka @ HS Podbocje 01_R6_Podbocje - Catez Reach HS Podbočje to HS Čatež 01_S7_Catez Subbasin Contributing areas: (1) Sava from the Savinja mouth to HS Čatež, (2) Krka from HS Podbočje to the mouth 01_J3_Catez HS0106 Junction Sava @ HS Čatež 02 Source-01 Source Outflow from 01 / Sava @ HS Čatež 02_R1_Catez - Zagreb Reach HS Čatež to HS Zagreb 02_S1_Zagreb Subbasin Contributing area from HS Čatež to HS Zagreb 02_J1_Zagreb HS0201 Junction Sava @ HS Zagreb 02_R2_Zagreb - Usce Kupe Reach HS Zagreb to the Kupa mouth 02_S2_Usce Kupe Subbasin Contributing area from HS Zagreb to the Kupa mouth 02_J2_SAVA DO KUPE Junction Sava to Kupa / Sava @ HS Rugvica 03 03_S1_Brodarci HS0301 Subbasin Kupa @ HS Brodarci 03_R1_Brodarci - JKiselica Reach HS Brodarci to HS J. Kiselica 03_S2_JKiselica Subbasin Contributing area from HS Brodarci to HS J. Kiselica 03_J2_JKiselica HS0302 Junction Kupa @ HS Jamnička Kiselica 03_R2_JKiselica - Farkasic Reach HS J. Kiselica to HS Farkašić 03_S3_Farkasic Subbasin Contributing area from HS J. Kiselica to HS Farkašić 03_J3_Farkasic HS0303 Junction Kupa @ HS Farkasic 03_R3_Farkasic - Usce Kupe Reach HS Farkašić to the mouth 03_S4_Usce Kupe Subbasin Contributing area from HS Farkasic to the Kupa mouth 03_J4_KUPA Junction The Kupa River basin outlet 04 Source-02 Source Outflow from 02 / Sava to Kupa Source-03 Source Outflow from 03 / The Kupa River basin outlet 04_J1_SAVA SA KUPOM HS0401 Junction Sava with Kupa / Sava @ HS Crnac 04_R1_Usce Kupe - Usce Une Reach Sava from the Kupa mouth to the Una mouth 04_S1_Usce Une Subbasin Contributing area from the Kupa mouth to the Una mouth 04_J2_SAVA DO UNE Junction Sava to the Una mouth 05 05_S1_Sliv1 Subbasin The Una basin to HS Kralje 05_J1_Kralje HS0501 Junction Una @ HS Kralje 05_R1_Kralje - NGradNizv Reach From HS Kralje to HS Novi Grad nizv. 05_S3_Sliv3 Subbasin The Sana basin to HS Prijedor 05_J2_Prijedor HS0502 Junction Sana @ HS Prijedor 05_R2_Prijedor - NGradNizv Reach HS Prijedor to HS Novi Grad nizv. 05_S2_Sliv2 Subbasin Contributing area from HS Kralje to HS Novi Grad nizv. 05_J3_Novi Grad nizv HS0503 Junction Una @ HS Novi Grad nizv.

Page 47 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Basin Element Name Element Description Model Type 05_R3_NGradNizv - Kostajnica Reach HS Novi Grad nizv. to HS Kostajnica 05_S4_Sliv4 Subbasin Contributing area from HS Novi Grad nizv. to HS Kostajnica 05_J4_Kostajnica HS0504 Junction Una @ HS Kostajnica 05_R4_Kostanica - usce Une Reach HS Kostajnica to the mouth 05_S5_Sliv5 Subbasin Contributing area from HS Kostajnica to the mouth 05_J5_UNA Junction The Una River basin outlet 06 Source-04 Source Outflow from 04 / Sava to the Una mouth Source-05 Source Outflow from 05 / The Una River basin outlet 06_J1_SAVA SA UNOM HS0601 Junction Sava with Una / Sava @ HS Jasenovac 06_R1_Usce Une - Mackovac Reach The Una mouth to HS Mačkovac 06_S1_Mackovac Subbasin Contributing area from the Una mouth to HS Mačkovac 06_J2_SAVA DO VRBASA HS0602 Junction Sava to the Vrbas mouth / Sava @ HS Mačkovac 07 07_S2_Sliv2 Subbasin The Pliva River basin to HS Volari 07_J2_Volari HS0702 Junction Pliva @ HS Volari 07_R1_Volari - HanSkela Reach HS Volari to HS Han Skela 07_S1_Sliv1 Subbasin The Vrbas River basin to HS Han Skela 07_J1_Han Skela HS0701 Junction Vrbas @ HS Han Skela 07_R2_HanSkela - Bocac Reach HS Han Skela to HS Bočac 07_S3_Sliv3 Subbasin Contributing area from HS Han Skela to HS Bočac 07_J3_Bocac HS0703 Junction Vrbas @ HS Bocac 07_R3_Bocac - Del. Selo Reach HS Bočac to HS Delibašino Selo 07_S4_Sliv4 Subbasin Contributing area from HS Bočac to HS Delibašino Selo 07_J4_Delibasino Selo HS0704 Junction Vrbas @ HS Delibašino Selo 07_R4_Del. Selo - usce Reach HS Delibašino Selo to the mouth 07_S5_Sliv 5 Subbasin Contributing area from HS Delibašino Selo to the mouth 07_J5_VRBAS Junction The Vrbas River basin outlet 08 Source-06 Source Outflow from 06 / Sava to the Vrbas mouth Source-07 Source Outflow from 07 / The Vrbas River basin outlet 08_J1_SAVA SA VRBASOM Junction Sava with Vrbas / Sava @ HS Davor HS0801 08_R1_Usce Vrbasa - SlavBrod Reach The Vrbas mouth to HS Slavonski Brod 08_S1_Slavonski Brod Subbasin Contributing area from HS Davor to HS Slavonski Brod 08_J2_Slavonski Brod HS0802 Junction Sava @ HS Slavonski Brod 08_R2_SlavBrod - usce Bosne Reach HS Slavonski Brod to the Bosna mouth 08_S2_Usce Bosne Subbasin Contributing area from HS Slavonski Brod to the Bosna mouth 08_J3_SAVA DO BOSNE Junction Sava to the Bosna mouth 09 09_S1_Sliv1 Subbasin The Bosna basin to HS Dobrinje 09_J1_Dobrinje HS0901 Junction Bosna @ HS Dobrinje 09_R1_Dobrinje - Raspotocje Reach HS Dobrinje to HS Raspotočje 09_S2_Sliv2 Subbasin Contributing area from HS Dobrinje to HS Raspotočje 09_J2_Raspotocje HS0902 Junction Bosna @ HS Raspotočje 09_R2_Raspotocje - Maglaj Reach HS Raspotočje to HS Maglaj 09_S3_Sliv3 Subbasin Contributing area from HS Raspotočje to HS Maglaj 09_J3_Maglaj HS0903 Junction Bosna @ HS Maglaj 09_R3_Maglaj - Doboj Reach HS Maglaj to HS Doboj 09_S45 Subbasin Contributing area from HS Maglaj to HS Doboj 09_J5_Doboj HS0905 Junction Bosna @ HS Doboj 09_R5_Doboj - Usce Bosne Reach HS Doboj to the mouth 09_S6_Sliv6 Subbasin Contributing area from HS Doboj to the mouth 09_J6_BOSNA Junction The Bosna River basin outlet 10 Source-08 Source Outflow from 08 / Sava to the Bosna mouth Source-09 Source Outflow from 09 / The Bosna River basin outlet 10_J1_SAVA SA BOSNOM Junction Sava with Bosna 10_R1_Usce Bosne - Zupanja Reach The Bosna mouth to HS Županja 10_S1_Zupanja Subbasin Contributing area from the Bosna mouth to HS Županja 10_J2_Zupanja HS1001 Junction Sava @ HS Županja (Gradište) 10_R2_Zupanja - usce Drine Reach HS Županja to the Drina mouth 10_S2_usce Drine Subbasin Contributing area from HS Županja to the Drina mouth

Page 48 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Basin Element Name Element Description Model Type 10_J3_SAVA DO DRINE Junction Sava to the Drina mouth 11 11_S1_Foca HS1101 Subbasin The Drina basin to HS Foča nizv. 11_R1_Foca - BBasta Reach HS Foča nizv. to HS Bajina Bašta 11_S2_Priboj HS1102 Subbasin The Lim basin to HS Priboj 11_R2_Priboj - BBasta Reach HS Priboj to HS Bajina Bašta 11_S3_BBasta Subbasin contributing area from HS Foča nizv. and from HS Priboj to HS Ba- jina Bašta 11_J1_BBasta HS1103 Junction Drina @ HS Bajina Bašta 11_R3_BBasta - Radalj Reach HS Bajina Bašta to HS Radalj 11_S4_Radalj Subbasin Contributing area from HS Bajina Bašta to HS Radalj 11_J2_Radalj HS1104 Junction Drina @ HS Radalj 11_R4_Radalj - usce Reach HS Radalj to the mouth 11_S5_usce Subbasin Contributing area from HS Radalj to the mouth 11_J3_DRINA Junction The Drina River basin outlet 12 Source-10 Source Outflow from 10 / Sava to the Drina mouth Source-11 Source Outflow from 11 / The Drina River basin outlet 12_J1_SAVA SA DRINOM Junction Sava with Drina 12_R1_usce Drine - SMitrov Reach The Drina mouth to HS Sremska Mitrovica 12_S1_SMitrovica Subbasin medjuslov from usca drine to HS Mitrovica 12_J2_SMitrovica HS1201 Junction Sava @ HS Sremska Mitrovica 12_R2_SMitrovica - usce Kol Reach HS Sremska Mitrovica to the Kolubara mouth 12_S2_usce Kolubare Subbasin Contributing area from HS Sremska Mitrovica to the Kolubara mouth 12_J3_SAVA DO KOLUBARE Junction Sava to the Kolubara mouth 13 13_S1_Beli Brod HS1301 Subbasin Kolubara @ HS Beli Brod 13_R1_BeliBrod - usce Kolub Reach HS Beli Brod to the mouth 13_S2_Usce Kolubare Subbasin Contributing area from HS Beli Brod to the mouth 13_J1_KOLUBARA Junction The Kolubara River basin outlet 14 Source-12 Source Outflow from Sava 12 / Sava to the Kolubara mouth Source-13 Source Outflow from Sava 13 / The Kolubara River basin outlet 14_J1_SAVA SA KOLUBAROM Junction Sava with Kolubara 14_R1_Usce Kolub - Usce Reach The Kolubara mouth to the outlet 14_S1_Beograd Subbasin Contributing area from the Kolubara mouth to the outlet 14_J2_BEOGRAD Junction The Sava River basin outlet

Page 49 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Table B2: Meteorological stations used in the hydrologic model.

Basin Station name Precipitation Temperature 01_Slovenia Celje yes yes 01_Slovenia Celje -36h yes 01_Slovenia Ljubljana - Bežigrad yes yes 01_Slovenia Novo Mesto yes yes 01_Slovenia Postojna yes 01_Slovenia Rateče yes 02_Sava Bizeljsko - Zgornja Sušica yes 02_Sava Sisak yes yes 02_Sava Zagreb - Grič yes yes 03_Kupa Črnomelj - Dobliče yes 03_Kupa Karlovac yes yes 03_Kupa Ogulin yes yes 03_Kupa Parg yes 04_Sava Bjelovar yes 04_Sava Križevci yes 05_Una Bihać yes yes 05_Una Drinić yes 05_Una Drvar yes yes 05_Una Novi Grad yes 05_Una Novi Grad x 0.88 yes 05_Una Prijedor yes 05_Una Sanski Most yes yes 07_Vrbas Banja Luka yes yes 07_Vrbas Bugojno yes yes 07_Vrbas Jajce yes yes 08_Sava Slavonski Brod yes yes 09_Bosna Doboj yes 09_Bosna Ivan Sedlo yes 09_Bosna Sarajevo yes yes 09_Bosna Tuzla yes yes 09_Bosna Zenica yes yes 10_Sava Slavonski Šamac yes 11_Drina Bajina Bašta yes 11_Drina Bijelo Polje yes yes 11_Drina Čemerno yes 11_Drina Goražde yes yes 11_Drina Kolašin yes 11_Drina Ljubovija yes yes 11_Drina Loznica yes yes 11_Drina Šćepan Polje yes 11_Drina Sjenica yes 11_Drina Sokolac yes 11_Drina Višegrad yes 11_Drina Žabljak yes yes 11_Drina Zlatibor yes 12_Sava Sremska Mitrovica yes yes 13_Kolubara Brežđe yes 13_Kolubara Koceljeva yes 13_Kolubara Majinovići yes 13_Kolubara Rudnik yes 13_Kolubara Valjevo yes yes 14_Sava Beograd - Opservatorija yes yes Total 50 27

Page 50 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

APPENDIX C: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the calibration period 1979-1984

Sava @ Šent Jakob 300 250 200

(m3/s) simulated

150 100 observed Flow 50 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Ljubljanica @ Moste 160 140 120 100

(m3/s) simulated

80 60 observed Flow 40 20 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Sava @ Litija 500

400

300

(m3/s) simulated

200 observed Flow 100

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Savinja @ Laško 140 120 100 80

(m3/s) simulated 60 observed Flow 40 20 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Page 51 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix C: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the calibration period 1979-1984 (continued)

Krka @ Podbočje 200

150

(m3/s) simulated

100 observed Flow 50

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Sava @ Čatež 800 700 600 500

(m3/s) simulated

400 300 observed Flow 200 100 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Sava @ Zagreb 1000

800

600

(m3/s) simulated

400 observed Flow 200

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Sava @ Rugvica 1000

800

600

(m3/s) simulated

400 observed Flow 200

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Page 52 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix C: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the calibration period 1979-1984 (continued)

Kupa @ Brodarci 350 300 250 200

(m3/s) simulated 150 observed Flow 100 50 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Kupa @ J. Kiselica 500

400

300

(m3/s) simulated

200 observed Flow 100

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Kupa @ Farkašić 600 500 400

(m3/s) simulated

300 200 observed Flow 100 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Sava @ Crnac 1400 1200 1000 800

(m3/s) simulated 600 observed Flow 400 200 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Page 53 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix C: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the calibration period 1979-1984 (continued)

Una @ Kralje 300 250 200

(m3/s) simulated

150 100 observed Flow 50 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Sana @ Prijedor 350 300 250 200

(m3/s) simulated 150 observed Flow 100 50 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Una @ Novi Grad nizvodno 700 600 500 400

(m3/s) simulated 300 observed Flow 200 100 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Una @ Kostajnica 700 600 500 400

(m3/s) simulated 300 observed Flow 200 100 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Page 54 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix C: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the calibration period 1979-1984 (continued)

Sava @ Jasenovac 2000

1500

(m3/s) simulated

1000 observed Flow 500

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Sava @ Mačkovac 2000

1500

(m3/s) simulated

1000 observed Flow 500

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Vrbas @ Han Skela 80 70 60 50

(m3/s) simulated

40 30 observed Flow 20 10 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Pliva @ Volari 100

(m3/s) simulated

40 observed Flow 20

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Page 55 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix C: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the calibration period 1979-1984 (continued)

Vrbas @ Bočac 250

200

150

(m3/s) simulated

100 observed Flow 50

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Vrbas @ Delibašino Selo 400 350 300 250

(m3/s) simulated

200 150 observed Flow 100 50 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Sava @ Davor 2500

2000

1500

(m3/s) simulated

1000 observed Flow 500

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Sava @ Slavonski Brod 2500

2000

1500

(m3/s) simulated

1000 observed Flow 500

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Page 56 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix C: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the calibration period 1979-1984 (continued)

Bosna @ Dobrinje 160 140 120 100

(m3/s) simulated

80 60 observed Flow 40 20 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Bosna @ Raspotočje 300 250 200

(m3/s) simulated

150 100 observed Flow 50 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Bosna @ Maglaj 500

400

300

(m3/s) simulated

200 observed Flow 100

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Bosna @ Doboj 700 600 500 400

(m3/s) simulated 300 observed Flow 200 100 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Page 57 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix C: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the calibration period 1979-1984 (continued)

Sava @ Županja 3000 2500 2000

(m3/s) simulated

1500 1000 observed Flow 500 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Drina @ Foča nizvodno 600 500 400

(m3/s) simulated

300 200 observed Flow 100 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Lim @ Priboj 350 300 250 200

(m3/s) simulated 150 observed Flow 100 50 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Drina @ Bajina Bašta 1200 1000 800

(m3/s) simulated

600 400 observed Flow 200 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Page 58 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix C: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the calibration period 1979-1984 (continued)

Drina @ Radalj 1200 1000 800

(m3/s) simulated

600 400 observed Flow 200 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Sava @ Sremska Mitrovica 4000 3500 3000 2500

(m3/s) simulated

2000 1500 observed Flow 1000 500 0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Kolubara @ Beli Brod 100

(m3/s) simulated

40 observed Flow 20

0 Oct 1979 Oct 1980 Oct 1981 Oct 1982 Oct 1983 Oct 1984

Page 59 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

APPENDIX D: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the verification period 1969-1974

Sava @ Šent Jakob 250

200

150

(m3/s) simulated

100 observed Flow 50

0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Ljubljanica @ Moste 200

150

(m3/s) simulated

100 observed Flow 50

0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Sava @ Litija 500

400

300

(m3/s) simulated

200 observed Flow 100

0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Savinja @ Laško 120 100 80

(m3/s) simulated

60 40 observed Flow 20 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Page 60 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix D: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the verification period 1969-1974 (continued)

Krka @ Podbočje 200

150

(m3/s) simulated

100 observed Flow 50

0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Sava @ Čatež 800

600

(m3/s) simulated

400 observed Flow 200

0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Sava @ Zagreb 800 700 600 500

(m3/s) simulated

400 300 observed Flow 200 100 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Sava @ Rugvica 1000

800

600

(m3/s) simulated

400 observed Flow 200

0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Page 61 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix D: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the verification period 1969-1974 (continued)

Kupa @ Brodarci 400 350 300 250

(m3/s) simulated

200 150 observed Flow 100 50 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Kupa @ J. Kiselica 700 600 500 400

(m3/s) simulated 300 observed Flow 200 100 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Kupa @ Farkašić 800 700 600 500

(m3/s) simulated

400 300 observed Flow 200 100 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Sava @ Crnac 1600 1400 1200 1000

(m3/s) simulated

800 600 observed Flow 400 200 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Page 62 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix D: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the verification period 1969-1974 (continued)

Una @ Kralje 350 300 250 200

(m3/s) simulated 150 observed Flow 100 50 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Sana @ Prijedor 300 250 200

(m3/s) simulated

150 100 observed Flow 50 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Una @ Novi Grad nizvodno 800 700 600 500

(m3/s) simulated

400 300 observed Flow 200 100 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Una @ Kostajnica 800 700 600 500

(m3/s) simulated

400 300 observed Flow 200 100 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Page 63 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix D: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the verification period 1969-1974 (continued)

Sava @ Jasenovac 2000

1500

(m3/s) simulated

1000 observed Flow 500

0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Sava @ Mačkovac 2500

2000

1500

(m3/s) simulated

1000 observed Flow 500

0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Vrbas @ Han Skela 100

(m3/s) simulated

40 observed Flow 20

0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Pliva @ Volari 120 100 80

(m3/s) simulated

60 40 observed Flow 20 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Page 64 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix D: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the verification period 1969-1974 (continued)

Vrbas @ Bočac 300 250 200

(m3/s) simulated

150 100 observed Flow 50 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Vrbas @ Delibašino Selo 500

400

300

(m3/s) simulated

200 observed Flow 100

0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Sava @ Davor 3000 2500 2000

(m3/s) simulated

1500 1000 observed Flow 500 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Sava @ Slavonski Brod 3000 2500 2000

(m3/s) simulated

1500 1000 observed Flow 500 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Page 65 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix D: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the verification period 1969-1974 (continued)

Bosna @ Dobrinje 300 250 200

(m3/s) simulated

150 100 observed Flow 50 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Bosna @ Raspotočje 400 350 300 250

(m3/s) simulated

200 150 observed Flow 100 50 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Bosna @ Maglaj 600 500 400

(m3/s) simulated

300 200 observed Flow 100 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Bosna @ Doboj 1000

800

600

(m3/s) simulated

400 observed Flow 200

0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Page 66 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix D: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the verification period 1969-1974 (continued)

Sava @ Županja 3500 3000 2500 2000

(m3/s) simulated 1500 observed Flow 1000 500 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Drina @ Foča nizvodno 800 700 600 500

(m3/s) simulated

400 300 observed Flow 200 100 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Lim @ Priboj 350 300 250 200

(m3/s) simulated 150 observed Flow 100 50 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Drina @ Bajina Bašta 1200 1000 800

(m3/s) simulated

600 400 observed Flow 200 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Page 67 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix D: Simulated vs. observed monthly flow hydrographs for the verification period 1969-1974 (continued)

Drina @ Radalj 1400 1200 1000 800

(m3/s) simulated 600 observed Flow 400 200 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Sava @ Sremska Mitrovica 5000

4000

3000

(m3/s) simulated

2000 observed Flow 1000

0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Kolubara @ Beli Brod 120 100 80

(m3/s) simulated

60 40 observed Flow 20 0 Oct 1969 Oct 1970 Oct 1971 Oct 1972 Oct 1973 Oct 1974

Page 68 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

APPENDIX E: Simulated vs. observed seasonal stremflow distribution for the calibration period 1979-1984

Page 69 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix E: Simulated vs. observed seasonal stremflow distribution for the calibration period 1979- 1984 (continued)

Page 70 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix E: Simulated vs. observed seasonal stremflow distribution for the calibration period 1979- 1984 (continued)

Page 71 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix E: Simulated vs. observed seasonal stremflow distribution for the calibration period 1979- 1984 (continued)

Page 72 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

APPENDIX F: Simulated vs. observed seasonal streamflow distribution for the verification period 1979-1984

Sava @ Rugvica 500 400 300 (m3/s) 200

Flow 100 0 Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNov

simulated observed

Page 73 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix F: Simulated vs. observed seasonal stremflow distribution for the verification period 1969- 1974 (continued)

Page 74 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix F: Simulated vs. observed seasonal stremflow distribution for the verification period 1969- 1974 (continued)

Sava @ Davor 2000 1500 (m3/s)

1000

Flow 500 0

simulated observed

Sava @ Slavonski Brod Bosna @ Dobrinje 2000 120 1500 100 80 (m3/s)

1000 (m3/s)

Flow 500 40 Flow 20 0 0 Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNov

simulated observed simulated observed

Bosna @ Raspotočje Bosna @ Maglaj 150 250 200 100 150 (m3/s) (m3/s) 100 50 Flow Flow 50 0 0 Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNov Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNov

simulated observed simulated observed

Page 75 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix F: Simulated vs. observed seasonal stremflow distribution for the verification period 1969- 1974 (continued)

Bosna @ Doboj Sava @ Županja 400 2000

300 1500 (m3/s)

1000 (m3/s)

200

Flow 500

Flow 100 0 0 Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNov

simulated observed simulated observed

Lim @ Priboj 250 200 150 (m3/s) 100

Flow 50 0 Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNov

simulated observed

Kolubara @ Beli Brod 40

30 (m3/s)

Flow 10

0 Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

simulated observed

Page 76 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

APPENDIX G: Simulated vs. observed seasonal streamflow distribution for the extended record 1961-1990 NOTE: Seasonal distributions for stations denoted with an asterisk (*) are evaluated for the 1969- 1990 period.

Ljubljanica @ Moste 100 80 60 (m3/s) 40

Flow 20 0 Jul Jan Jun Oct Apr Feb Sep Dec Aug Nov Mar May

simulated observed

Sava @ Čatež 500 400 300 (m3/s) 200

Flow 100 0 Jul Jan Jun Oct Apr Feb Sep Dec Aug Nov Mar May

simulated observed

Page 77 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Sava @ Rugvica* 500 400 300 (m3/s) 200

Flow 100 0 Jul Jan Jun Oct Apr Feb Sep Dec Aug Nov Mar May

simulated observed

Appendix G: Simulated vs. observed seasonal streamflow distribution for the extended record 1961- 1990 (continued)

NOTE: Seasonal distributions for stations denoted with asterisk (*) are evaluated for the 1969-1990 period.

Sava @ Crnac* 1000 800 600 (m3/s) 400

Flow 200 0 Jul Jan Jun Oct Apr Feb Sep Dec Aug Nov Mar May

simulated observed

Page 78 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Una @ Kostajnica* 400

300 (m3/s)

200

Flow 100

0 Jul Jan Jun Oct Apr Feb Sep Dec Aug Nov Mar May

simulated observed

Appendix G: Simulated vs. observed seasonal streamflow distribution for the extended record 1961- 1990 (continued)

NOTE: Seasonal distributions for stations denoted with asterisk (*) are evaluated for the 1969-1990 period.

Page 79 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Vrbas @ Delibašino Selo* 200

150 (m3/s)

100

Flow 50

0 Jul Jan Jun Oct Apr Feb Sep Dec Aug Nov Mar May

simulated observed

Sava @ Slavonski Brod 2000

1500 (m3/s)

1000

Flow 500

0 Jul Jan Jun Oct Apr Feb Sep Dec Aug Nov Mar May

simulated observed

Appendix G: Simulated vs. observed seasonal streamflow distribution for the extended record 1961- 1990 (continued)

NOTE: Seasonal distributions for stations denoted with asterisk (*) are evaluated for the 1969-1990 period.

Page 80 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Bosna @ Doboj 300 250 200 (m3/s)

150 100 Flow 50 0 Jul Jan Jun Oct Apr Feb Sep Dec Aug Nov Mar May

simulated observed

Drina @ Bajina Bašta 800

600 (m3/s)

400

Flow 200

0 Jul Jan Jun Oct Apr Feb Sep Dec Aug Nov Mar May

simulated observed

Page 81 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

APPENDIX H: Seasonal streamflow distribution simulated with input from climate models for 1961-1990

Page 82 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix H: Seasonal streamflow distribution simulated with input from climate models for 1961-1990 (continued)

Page 83 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix H: Seasonal streamflow distribution simulated with input from climate models for 1961-1990 (continued)

Page 84 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix H: Seasonal streamflow distribution simulated with input from climate models for 1961-1990 (continued)

Page 85 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

APPENDIX I: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows in the future compared to 1961-1990 – complete results Table I1: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows – climate model CM1.

2011-2040 2041-2070 No Location DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN 1 Sava @ Šent Jakob 7.2% -9.2% -11.6% -4.5% -5.3% 38.5% -1.1% -14.3% -2.0% 3.1% 2 Ljubljanica @ Moste 25.3% -1.7% -23.6% -6.9% -1.6% 51.2% 17.5% -19.3% -2.3% 11.7% 3 Sava @ Litija 14.5% -6.1% -15.6% -5.2% -3.8% 42.2% 6.3% -16.3% -2.0% 6.2% 4 Savinja @ Laško 9.3% -11.4% -25.9% -6.2% -9.7% 32.5% 3.5% -14.0% 8.9% 6.1% 5 Sava after the Savinja mouth 13.8% -7.3% -18.8% -5.7% -5.3% 40.6% 6.0% -16.0% 0.2% 6.2% 6 Krka @ Podbočje 14.8% -6.2% -32.9% -1.6% -7.5% 45.2% 5.8% -14.3% 5.4% 8.5% 7 Sava @ Čatež 14.3% -6.9% -22.2% -5.4% -5.9% 41.0% 6.1% -15.6% 1.1% 6.6% 8 Sava @ Zagreb 14.5% -8.1% -24.4% -6.1% -6.8% 42.7% 7.3% -13.6% 2.7% 8.3% 9 Sava @ Rugvica 14.7% -8.2% -24.9% -6.1% -6.9% 42.9% 7.3% -13.0% 3.1% 8.6% 10 Kupa @ Brodarci 10.4% -13.4% -29.6% -1.5% -6.4% 15.7% -7.7% -18.2% 3.3% -0.1% 11 Kupa @ J. Kiselica 14.7% -19.6% -40.6% -3.0% -9.4% 14.4% -14.3% -20.1% 7.8% -1.7% 12 Kupa @ Farkašić 15.6% -19.3% -43.4% -5.4% -10.0% 16.1% -11.8% -22.2% 6.4% -1.0% 13 Kupa mouth 17.1% -19.6% -43.6% -5.4% -9.8% 18.5% -11.4% -22.5% 7.0% -0.2% 14 Sava @ Crnac 15.9% -13.3% -31.5% -5.8% -8.2% 30.6% -1.1% -16.4% 4.7% 4.8% 15 Sava before the Una mouth 16.8% -15.0% -32.7% -6.8% -8.9% 33.5% -0.3% -14.1% 3.9% 6.1% 16 Una @ Kralje 22.1% -13.5% -23.7% -0.5% -3.7% 16.8% -10.1% -23.1% -1.2% -4.0% 17 Sana @ Prijedor 14.4% -13.6% -21.4% 8.4% -4.0% 22.8% -8.4% -27.5% 7.4% -1.6% 18 Una @ Novi Grad nizv. 17.5% -13.4% -22.0% 3.3% -3.8% 18.3% -9.5% -23.6% 4.6% -2.4% 19 Una @ Kostajnica 17.8% -13.8% -22.2% 3.0% -4.0% 19.1% -9.7% -23.5% 4.6% -2.2% 20 Una mouth 18.4% -13.8% -22.6% 2.2% -4.1% 20.3% -10.0% -23.2% 4.0% -2.1% 21 Sava @ Jasenovac 17.2% -14.6% -30.1% -4.7% -7.6% 29.9% -3.4% -16.4% 3.9% 3.9% 22 Sava @ Mačkovac 17.4% -14.7% -30.1% -4.8% -7.6% 30.3% -3.2% -15.7% 2.5% 3.8% 23 Vrbas @ Han Skela 18.8% -6.5% -9.3% 11.6% 2.1% 14.0% -4.6% -12.2% 10.5% 0.8% 24 Pliva @ Volari 23.4% -6.2% -6.7% 2.4% 2.4% 22.0% -11.4% -10.2% 4.3% -0.2% 25 Vrbas @ Bočac 22.8% -7.2% -9.4% 1.4% 0.9% 23.5% -12.3% -14.3% 3.4% -1.5% 26 Vrbas @ Delibašino Selo 23.1% -8.8% -13.6% -1.3% -1.1% 23.7% -11.9% -19.7% -0.4% -3.2% 27 Vrbas mouth 24.1% -9.4% -15.0% -2.1% -1.5% 24.6% -11.1% -21.9% -1.8% -3.5% 28 Sava @ Davor 18.2% -13.9% -28.0% -4.5% -6.8% 29.6% -4.4% -16.6% 2.0% 2.9% 29 Sava @ Slavonski Brod 18.7% -13.9% -28.3% -4.6% -6.9% 30.2% -4.4% -16.5% 0.3% 2.6% 30 Sava before the Bosna mouth 18.7% -13.7% -28.4% -4.8% -6.9% 30.4% -4.2% -16.4% -0.4% 2.5% 31 Bosna @ Dobrinje 18.1% -11.0% -12.7% -13.7% -4.4% 16.5% -14.6% -21.3% -7.9% -6.5% 32 Bosna @ Raspotočje 21.4% -6.9% -10.7% -11.0% -2.1% 23.6% -17.9% -19.5% -4.7% -6.1% 33 Bosna @ Maglaj 21.6% -6.6% -9.8% -10.4% -1.8% 25.7% -17.9% -14.4% -2.5% -4.2% 34 Bosna @ Doboj 25.0% -6.9% -10.2% -6.9% -0.6% 24.1% -15.6% -10.1% -2.5% -2.6% 35 Bosna mouth 25.8% -7.3% -10.7% -6.0% -0.4% 24.0% -15.2% -9.5% -2.4% -2.2% 36 Sava after the Bosna mouth 19.9% -12.6% -25.1% -5.0% -5.8% 29.4% -6.3% -15.1% -0.7% 1.7% 37 Sava @ Županja 19.9% -12.4% -25.0% -5.4% -5.8% 29.6% -6.1% -14.9% -1.4% 1.7% 38 Sava before the Drina mouth 19.9% -12.0% -24.9% -6.0% -5.8% 29.9% -5.9% -14.5% -2.6% 1.6% 39 Drina @ Foča nizv. 25.3% 3.1% 0.1% -5.2% 6.4% 16.1% 1.3% -8.3% -1.9% 2.9% 40 Lim @ Priboj 8.7% -3.0% -0.5% 2.7% 1.1% 7.2% -3.6% -11.2% 13.0% 0.2% 41 Drina @ Bajina Bašta 17.3% -1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 3.8% 11.4% -2.4% -7.7% 5.8% 1.5% 42 Drina @ Radalj 15.2% -1.5% 0.2% 0.5% 3.2% 10.0% -2.9% -6.2% 5.9% 1.3% 43 Drina mouth 16.0% -2.1% 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 12.1% -3.4% -3.9% 7.5% 2.3% 44 Sava after the Drina mouth 19.0% -9.1% -18.8% -4.3% -3.4% 25.7% -5.1% -12.2% -0.4% 1.8% 45 Sava @ S. Mitrovica 19.0% -9.0% -18.9% -4.6% -3.5% 26.0% -5.0% -12.2% -1.1% 1.7% 46 Sava before the Kolubara m. 19.2% -8.9% -18.5% -4.4% -3.3% 25.9% -5.2% -11.8% -1.7% 1.6% 47 Kolubara @ Beli Brod 4.7% -23.6% -20.2% -10.7% -14.2% 1.0% -28.5% -10.2% 32.8% -5.6% 48 Kolubara mouth 6.6% -18.7% -15.0% -10.7% -10.4% 5.3% -24.9% -4.9% 20.0% -3.2% 49 Sava after the Kolubara m. 18.9% -9.2% -18.3% -4.6% -3.5% 25.4% -5.7% -11.6% -1.2% 1.5% 50 Sava @ Beograd 18.8% -9.2% -18.2% -4.7% -3.5% 25.2% -5.7% -11.3% -1.5% 1.4% average 17.4% -10.2% -19.7% -3.6% -4.2% 25.1% -5.9% -15.2% 2.9% 1.2% min 4.7% -23.6% -43.6% -13.7% -14.2% 1.0% -28.5% -27.5% -7.9% -6.5% max 25.8% 3.1% 3.0% 11.6% 6.4% 51.2% 17.5% -3.9% 32.8% 11.7%

Page 86 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Table I2: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows – climate model CM2.

2011-2040 2041-2070 No Location DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN 1 Sava @ Šent Jakob -1.8% 9.2% 0.4% 12.0% 5.7% 19.9% 2.4% -4.7% 11.6% 6.7% 2 Ljubljanica @ Moste 9.0% 12.4% 3.2% 7.4% 8.3% 38.2% 7.3% -5.7% 5.2% 10.8% 3 Sava @ Litija 2.3% 10.7% 2.3% 9.7% 6.7% 25.0% 4.1% -4.7% 9.5% 7.8% 4 Savinja @ Laško 4.8% -7.9% -8.6% 5.3% -2.2% 7.6% -1.9% -8.1% 3.8% -0.3% 5 Sava after the Savinja mouth 3.1% 7.0% -0.4% 9.0% 4.9% 21.0% 2.8% -5.6% 8.1% 5.9% 6 Krka @ Podbočje 3.5% -6.4% -10.0% -0.9% -3.9% 16.2% -8.3% -24.3% -20.1% -10.7% 7 Sava @ Čatež 3.4% 4.4% -2.2% 7.3% 3.3% 19.3% 0.4% -9.2% 2.3% 2.4% 8 Sava @ Zagreb 3.4% 2.1% -5.2% 3.9% 1.0% 15.9% -2.5% -11.9% -1.1% -0.6% 9 Sava @ Rugvica 3.6% 1.9% -5.8% 2.8% 0.6% 15.3% -3.2% -12.2% -2.0% -1.2% 10 Kupa @ Brodarci 10.9% -13.8% -7.3% -6.9% -4.2% 4.5% -18.9% -13.7% -7.5% -8.8% 11 Kupa @ J. Kiselica 11.4% -15.7% -16.3% -9.3% -6.7% 3.0% -29.7% -13.7% -8.3% -13.1% 12 Kupa @ Farkašić 11.2% -14.4% -14.7% -10.4% -6.3% 2.5% -30.0% -15.4% -11.4% -14.2% 13 Kupa mouth 12.3% -14.0% -15.2% -10.1% -6.0% 3.7% -30.7% -16.2% -13.3% -14.7% 14 Sava @ Crnac 8.0% -5.7% -9.0% -2.3% -2.2% 9.5% -16.3% -13.6% -6.5% -7.0% 15 Sava before the Una mouth 9.7% -5.0% -8.6% -3.1% -1.7% 10.0% -17.6% -12.6% -10.9% -8.1% 16 Una @ Kralje 25.4% -12.1% -0.7% -2.1% 1.9% 5.9% -16.8% -13.5% -0.9% -7.0% 17 Sana @ Prijedor 25.8% -14.2% -5.5% -3.1% -0.9% 10.4% -21.7% -27.5% -2.1% -11.3% 18 Una @ Novi Grad nizv. 23.9% -12.1% -5.0% -1.7% 0.5% 6.7% -17.4% -18.7% -0.9% -8.2% 19 Una @ Kostajnica 24.5% -12.3% -5.7% -2.3% 0.4% 7.0% -17.8% -18.6% -1.4% -8.3% 20 Una mouth 24.8% -12.0% -5.7% -3.4% 0.3% 7.3% -18.1% -17.7% -2.4% -8.4% 21 Sava @ Jasenovac 13.8% -7.1% -7.9% -3.2% -1.2% 9.3% -17.7% -13.8% -8.9% -8.2% 22 Sava @ Mačkovac 14.5% -7.1% -7.9% -4.1% -1.2% 10.2% -18.2% -13.2% -10.3% -8.3% 23 Vrbas @ Han Skela 15.2% -9.4% -0.8% -4.0% -0.4% 12.1% -10.0% -9.3% 1.8% -2.3% 24 Pliva @ Volari 23.2% -13.0% 1.0% -4.4% 0.4% 22.0% -15.7% -6.1% 4.6% -0.8% 25 Vrbas @ Bočac 20.2% -12.5% -2.1% -8.7% -1.7% 17.7% -18.0% -14.0% -2.2% -5.7% 26 Vrbas @ Delibašino Selo 22.9% -11.5% -5.7% -11.8% -2.0% 14.6% -18.3% -19.4% -5.8% -8.3% 27 Vrbas mouth 24.5% -12.0% -7.0% -12.2% -2.1% 13.6% -17.8% -21.0% -7.2% -8.9% 28 Sava @ Davor 15.8% -7.8% -7.8% -4.9% -1.3% 10.6% -18.2% -14.2% -10.0% -8.4% 29 Sava @ Slavonski Brod 16.5% -7.6% -8.1% -5.8% -1.4% 11.3% -18.2% -13.6% -10.9% -8.3% 30 Sava before the Bosna mouth 16.6% -7.4% -8.1% -6.2% -1.4% 11.6% -18.2% -13.3% -11.4% -8.2% 31 Bosna @ Dobrinje 12.1% -12.9% -9.9% -23.0% -7.6% 4.7% -25.2% -31.5% -17.2% -16.7% 32 Bosna @ Raspotočje 14.9% -11.0% -9.8% -23.9% -7.1% 12.4% -26.4% -34.4% -13.0% -16.1% 33 Bosna @ Maglaj 20.6% -13.0% -7.6% -20.1% -5.3% 15.4% -28.7% -35.2% -10.7% -16.3% 34 Bosna @ Doboj 23.0% -11.9% -7.1% -19.2% -4.0% 10.4% -24.3% -32.0% -14.1% -15.8% 35 Bosna mouth 23.1% -12.2% -7.2% -19.8% -4.1% 8.6% -23.8% -30.8% -15.0% -15.8% 36 Sava after the Bosna mouth 17.7% -8.3% -8.0% -8.2% -1.8% 11.1% -19.2% -16.4% -11.9% -9.5% 37 Sava @ Županja 17.6% -8.1% -7.8% -8.5% -1.8% 11.4% -19.3% -16.1% -12.4% -9.5% 38 Sava before the Drina mouth 17.5% -7.8% -7.6% -9.0% -1.8% 11.8% -19.3% -15.7% -13.4% -9.5% 39 Drina @ Foča nizv. 7.6% -0.9% 2.2% -3.6% 1.2% 6.3% -6.3% 1.5% 6.6% 0.6% 40 Lim @ Priboj 7.9% -5.7% 2.1% -0.4% -0.3% 9.6% -7.9% -11.0% 8.4% -1.8% 41 Drina @ Bajina Bašta 8.1% -2.8% 1.7% -3.3% 0.5% 6.6% -7.1% -7.5% 4.8% -1.6% 42 Drina @ Radalj 7.9% -2.6% 1.2% -3.1% 0.5% 5.9% -6.6% -7.7% 4.2% -1.8% 43 Drina mouth 10.5% -2.2% -0.2% -2.1% 1.2% 6.3% -5.5% -12.1% 2.5% -2.4% 44 Sava after the Drina mouth 15.8% -6.2% -6.1% -7.5% -1.1% 10.5% -15.4% -14.9% -10.0% -7.8% 45 Sava @ S. Mitrovica 15.9% -6.2% -6.1% -7.8% -1.1% 10.7% -15.4% -14.7% -10.5% -7.9% 46 Sava before the Kolubara m. 16.2% -5.9% -6.5% -7.9% -1.1% 10.5% -15.2% -15.1% -10.9% -8.0% 47 Kolubara @ Beli Brod 19.7% -5.4% 7.4% -12.2% 3.1% -14.1% -14.9% -37.8% -14.1% -21.3% 48 Kolubara mouth 15.8% -1.6% 2.0% -13.6% 1.7% -9.8% -9.3% -33.3% -14.2% -17.5% 49 Sava after the Kolubara m. 16.2% -5.8% -6.2% -8.0% -1.0% 10.1% -15.0% -15.7% -11.0% -8.2% 50 Sava @ Beograd 16.0% -5.8% -6.3% -8.2% -1.1% 10.0% -15.0% -15.7% -11.3% -8.3% average 14.1% -6.6% -5.1% -5.5% -0.9% 10.6% -14.5% -16.0% -5.4% -7.0% min -1.8% -15.7% -16.3% -23.9% -7.6% -14.1% -30.7% -37.8% -20.1% -21.3% max 25.8% 12.4% 7.4% 12.0% 8.3% 38.2% 7.3% 1.5% 11.6% 10.8%

Page 87 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Table I3: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows – climate model CM3.

2011-2040 2041-2070 No Location DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN 1 Sava @ Šent Jakob 9.9% -5.6% -3.3% -5.3% -1.8% 13.4% -9.1% -14.5% 2.9% -2.6% 2 Ljubljanica @ Moste 15.3% -12.6% 9.1% -10.6% -0.6% 30.7% -20.4% -17.0% 1.4% -1.2% 3 Sava @ Litija 12.0% -8.5% 1.5% -8.4% -1.6% 19.6% -13.3% -14.8% 2.6% -2.2% 4 Savinja @ Laško 17.4% -6.3% -7.9% 1.3% 0.0% 17.9% -4.5% -19.5% 20.7% 1.9% 5 Sava after the Savinja mouth 13.4% -7.9% -0.8% -6.7% -1.2% 19.4% -11.3% -16.6% 6.3% -1.4% 6 Krka @ Podbočje 16.1% -0.5% -2.6% 8.6% 4.6% 19.6% -6.8% -34.1% 17.5% -2.5% 7 Sava @ Čatež 13.9% -5.9% -1.3% -3.7% 0.1% 19.0% -10.0% -20.9% 8.7% -1.7% 8 Sava @ Zagreb 14.1% -6.4% -0.6% -2.7% 0.5% 20.2% -11.0% -20.2% 11.3% -0.7% 9 Sava @ Rugvica 14.1% -6.2% -0.8% -2.7% 0.6% 20.6% -11.1% -20.1% 12.1% -0.4% 10 Kupa @ Brodarci 9.0% -10.4% -5.7% 0.6% -1.5% 11.0% -21.4% -33.6% 15.6% -5.3% 11 Kupa @ J. Kiselica 11.7% -14.6% 0.2% -1.7% -1.7% 15.8% -29.1% -32.7% 20.0% -5.2% 12 Kupa @ Farkašić 9.3% -14.7% -0.3% -4.6% -3.1% 14.0% -29.5% -34.6% 13.7% -7.3% 13 Kupa mouth 7.9% -15.0% -3.0% -4.9% -4.0% 12.1% -29.6% -32.8% 10.0% -8.6% 14 Sava @ Crnac 11.0% -10.4% -1.5% -3.6% -1.5% 16.4% -19.9% -24.5% 11.2% -4.0% 15 Sava before the Una mouth 8.4% -9.6% -4.1% -3.0% -2.2% 14.9% -19.8% -25.6% 8.3% -5.4% 16 Una @ Kralje 8.8% -9.2% -17.7% 1.3% -4.1% 8.9% -11.1% -25.1% -3.4% -7.2% 17 Sana @ Prijedor 4.4% -8.1% -24.6% -4.8% -8.0% 14.0% -11.5% -36.0% -21.7% -12.9% 18 Una @ Novi Grad nizv. 5.0% -9.2% -21.4% -1.4% -6.6% 8.0% -11.4% -29.5% -12.1% -10.4% 19 Una @ Kostajnica 4.5% -9.5% -21.8% -1.6% -6.9% 7.3% -11.5% -29.7% -12.8% -10.9% 20 Una mouth 3.9% -10.0% -22.1% -2.0% -7.4% 6.3% -11.9% -29.6% -13.6% -11.5% 21 Sava @ Jasenovac 7.2% -9.7% -8.6% -2.7% -3.6% 12.6% -17.3% -26.6% 3.2% -7.0% 22 Sava @ Mačkovac 6.8% -9.6% -9.9% -2.5% -3.9% 12.9% -17.3% -27.0% 1.3% -7.5% 23 Vrbas @ Han Skela 11.1% -2.4% -11.9% -0.1% -1.0% 14.8% 0.4% -12.6% -4.8% 0.0% 24 Pliva @ Volari 22.8% -4.3% -8.3% -2.8% 1.4% 21.8% -0.1% -10.7% -6.0% 1.5% 25 Vrbas @ Bočac 16.9% -6.5% -15.1% -9.8% -4.0% 17.7% -1.9% -14.2% -13.3% -2.6% 26 Vrbas @ Delibašino Selo 11.8% -9.8% -18.2% -13.7% -7.9% 12.4% -5.8% -17.9% -22.8% -8.0% 27 Vrbas mouth 7.6% -10.8% -19.3% -14.9% -9.6% 9.0% -6.9% -19.1% -26.1% -10.1% 28 Sava @ Davor 6.9% -9.8% -11.3% -3.9% -4.6% 12.4% -15.7% -25.8% -1.7% -7.9% 29 Sava @ Slavonski Brod 6.3% -10.5% -13.0% -3.4% -5.3% 12.0% -16.5% -26.7% -3.6% -8.9% 30 Sava before the Bosna mouth 6.2% -10.5% -13.4% -3.3% -5.4% 12.2% -16.6% -26.8% -4.3% -9.1% 31 Bosna @ Dobrinje 28.8% -11.4% -12.5% 0.4% -0.1% 20.1% -22.4% -33.9% -23.9% -15.8% 32 Bosna @ Raspotočje 31.5% -12.9% -13.7% 7.8% -0.4% 22.3% -18.0% -28.1% -16.7% -12.2% 33 Bosna @ Maglaj 30.9% -14.7% -17.5% 5.0% -2.8% 17.3% -20.3% -30.1% -19.8% -15.2% 34 Bosna @ Doboj 21.1% -16.9% -19.4% 3.6% -5.9% 9.5% -21.9% -30.0% -24.9% -18.3% 35 Bosna mouth 18.5% -18.0% -19.8% 3.5% -6.8% 7.6% -22.6% -29.7% -26.9% -19.1% 36 Sava after the Bosna mouth 8.0% -12.0% -14.6% -2.2% -5.7% 11.5% -17.7% -27.3% -7.8% -10.8% 37 Sava @ Županja 8.1% -12.0% -14.6% -2.3% -5.7% 11.8% -17.7% -27.1% -8.3% -10.8% 38 Sava before the Drina mouth 8.3% -12.0% -14.6% -2.4% -5.7% 12.5% -17.7% -26.8% -9.2% -10.8% 39 Drina @ Foča nizv. 0.1% -4.0% 7.4% 3.5% 0.3% 25.3% 3.6% -6.4% 12.4% 9.3% 40 Lim @ Priboj 5.9% -2.3% 0.9% -4.6% -0.4% 23.8% 1.6% -18.2% 3.8% 2.4% 41 Drina @ Bajina Bašta 4.7% -4.3% 5.1% -0.6% 0.2% 24.3% 2.4% -14.4% 6.5% 5.2% 42 Drina @ Radalj 6.4% -4.4% 4.3% -1.1% 0.3% 23.1% 2.2% -13.6% 4.9% 4.6% 43 Drina mouth 9.9% -5.3% 1.9% 2.0% 1.0% 26.1% 1.4% -15.8% 1.7% 3.5% 44 Sava after the Drina mouth 8.6% -10.1% -11.2% -1.5% -4.1% 15.5% -12.3% -24.5% -6.8% -7.4% 45 Sava @ S. Mitrovica 8.6% -10.2% -11.4% -1.4% -4.2% 15.7% -12.4% -24.4% -7.4% -7.6% 46 Sava before the Kolubara m. 8.9% -10.6% -11.2% -1.0% -4.1% 15.9% -12.6% -24.5% -8.2% -7.8% 47 Kolubara @ Beli Brod 12.6% -43.5% -10.5% 11.3% -13.3% 27.7% -26.9% -42.3% -40.3% -24.0% 48 Kolubara mouth 12.0% -36.8% -9.3% 12.3% -9.6% 21.3% -24.9% -36.3% -35.6% -20.9% 49 Sava after the Kolubara m. 8.9% -11.3% -11.1% -0.8% -4.3% 16.0% -12.9% -24.9% -8.7% -8.2% 50 Sava @ Beograd 9.2% -11.2% -11.0% -0.7% -4.2% 16.2% -12.9% -24.9% -9.1% -8.2% average 11.3% -10.6% -8.8% -1.6% -3.3% 16.2% -13.3% -24.4% -4.1% -6.6% min 0.1% -43.5% -24.6% -14.9% -13.3% 6.3% -29.6% -42.3% -40.3% -24.0% max 31.5% -0.5% 9.1% 12.3% 4.6% 30.7% 3.6% -6.4% 20.7% 9.3%

Page 88 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Table I4: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows – climate model CM4.

2011-2040 2041-2070 No Location DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN 1 Sava @ Šent Jakob 8.4% 3.6% -7.3% -0.9% 0.4% 9.4% -15.8% -13.7% -1.5% -6.6% 2 Ljubljanica @ Moste 16.8% 0.4% -11.2% -15.0% -3.4% 21.9% -25.4% -27.4% -15.6% -13.5% 3 Sava @ Litija 10.9% 2.4% -8.5% -6.7% -1.2% 13.5% -18.2% -18.1% -6.8% -9.0% 4 Savinja @ Laško 13.8% 13.7% -7.2% 0.2% 4.2% 14.6% 2.0% -16.8% 4.8% -0.7% 5 Sava after the Savinja mouth 11.4% 5.1% -8.0% -5.6% -0.1% 13.6% -13.6% -18.1% -4.7% -7.2% 6 Krka @ Podbočje 29.0% 12.7% -9.1% -0.5% 6.4% 21.1% -4.6% -23.5% 10.0% -1.4% 7 Sava @ Čatež 14.0% 6.8% -7.9% -4.8% 1.2% 14.5% -11.1% -19.2% -2.0% -6.0% 8 Sava @ Zagreb 13.4% 6.3% -7.1% -4.9% 1.1% 12.2% -11.4% -21.0% -3.9% -7.5% 9 Sava @ Rugvica 13.2% 6.0% -6.7% -4.7% 1.1% 11.4% -11.5% -21.2% -4.4% -7.8% 10 Kupa @ Brodarci 9.8% -2.4% -9.1% 0.7% 0.3% -0.7% -17.1% -33.1% -7.5% -13.4% 11 Kupa @ J. Kiselica 8.5% -9.1% -5.4% 4.4% -0.7% -6.9% -24.8% -33.7% -9.7% -18.3% 12 Kupa @ Farkašić 8.7% -7.3% -7.1% 5.5% -0.2% -6.4% -24.7% -33.8% -11.6% -18.6% 13 Kupa mouth 10.8% -6.8% -7.7% 5.5% 0.4% -5.3% -25.8% -33.0% -12.9% -18.8% 14 Sava @ Crnac 12.0% -0.2% -7.0% -0.6% 0.8% 2.9% -18.4% -25.3% -7.8% -12.7% 15 Sava before the Una mouth 11.8% -0.9% -8.5% -0.1% 0.3% 2.2% -19.2% -26.1% -10.7% -13.9% 16 Una @ Kralje 11.7% -12.0% -16.6% 11.9% -2.3% -1.6% -18.3% -22.7% -8.1% -13.1% 17 Sana @ Prijedor 17.9% -10.6% -26.4% 15.6% -2.4% 15.2% -18.6% -24.2% -6.3% -9.9% 18 Una @ Novi Grad nizv. 12.6% -9.7% -20.2% 13.5% -1.9% 3.4% -17.2% -22.7% -5.5% -11.1% 19 Una @ Kostajnica 12.8% -9.5% -20.0% 13.3% -1.8% 2.9% -17.5% -22.6% -5.7% -11.3% 20 Una mouth 13.1% -9.4% -19.8% 13.0% -1.7% 2.4% -17.8% -21.7% -6.1% -11.4% 21 Sava @ Jasenovac 12.2% -3.5% -11.2% 2.9% -0.2% 2.2% -18.7% -25.0% -9.6% -13.2% 22 Sava @ Mačkovac 12.3% -3.2% -11.4% 3.1% -0.1% 2.5% -19.3% -23.9% -10.3% -13.3% 23 Vrbas @ Han Skela 8.6% -12.2% -15.4% 10.5% -4.3% 7.1% -13.6% -2.5% -10.0% -5.6% 24 Pliva @ Volari 12.4% -12.8% -13.9% 6.7% -3.5% 11.1% -14.8% 0.1% -11.2% -4.7% 25 Vrbas @ Bočac 13.0% -15.1% -19.3% 5.1% -6.1% 12.6% -17.7% -1.8% -14.0% -6.6% 26 Vrbas @ Delibašino Selo 15.8% -13.7% -21.9% 6.9% -5.4% 13.3% -18.6% -6.1% -11.1% -7.2% 27 Vrbas mouth 14.5% -12.2% -22.7% 7.0% -5.2% 10.3% -18.2% -6.6% -10.5% -7.6% 28 Sava @ Davor 12.6% -4.4% -12.9% 3.6% -0.7% 3.5% -19.1% -21.6% -10.3% -12.5% 29 Sava @ Slavonski Brod 12.6% -4.3% -12.9% 3.1% -0.8% 3.8% -19.7% -20.3% -10.6% -12.4% 30 Sava before the Bosna mouth 12.6% -4.3% -12.9% 3.0% -0.9% 4.0% -19.9% -19.7% -11.0% -12.4% 31 Bosna @ Dobrinje -4.5% -29.9% -22.8% 6.3% -14.8% -0.7% -30.9% -18.9% -6.1% -16.0% 32 Bosna @ Raspotočje 6.1% -27.9% -23.1% 8.9% -12.9% 7.7% -31.8% -17.3% -9.2% -16.3% 33 Bosna @ Maglaj 8.0% -27.8% -18.4% 9.8% -11.3% 8.5% -31.9% -14.6% -8.4% -15.5% 34 Bosna @ Doboj 7.4% -24.0% -15.4% 9.6% -8.8% 4.5% -31.3% -9.9% -6.1% -13.8% 35 Bosna mouth 7.5% -23.6% -15.5% 9.3% -8.7% 3.7% -31.6% -8.1% -6.5% -13.6% 36 Sava after the Bosna mouth 11.8% -8.0% -13.3% 4.0% -2.2% 4.0% -22.1% -17.7% -10.3% -12.6% 37 Sava @ Županja 12.1% -8.0% -13.3% 3.9% -2.2% 4.4% -22.3% -17.3% -10.8% -12.5% 38 Sava before the Drina mouth 12.6% -8.2% -13.1% 3.7% -2.1% 5.2% -22.6% -16.6% -11.5% -12.5% 39 Drina @ Foča nizv. -11.5% -4.6% -8.3% 26.6% -0.1% -5.7% -10.6% -12.9% 9.3% -5.5% 40 Lim @ Priboj 6.4% -4.8% -7.8% 22.1% 2.0% 11.8% -5.2% -15.3% 17.2% 0.4% 41 Drina @ Bajina Bašta -2.1% -5.7% -8.5% 21.7% 0.2% 3.9% -7.1% -10.8% 11.9% -1.4% 42 Drina @ Radalj -0.6% -5.2% -7.5% 18.3% 0.1% 4.6% -6.4% -8.3% 10.4% -0.9% 43 Drina mouth 1.2% -4.1% -3.2% 18.8% 1.9% 7.1% -7.0% -5.4% 8.8% -0.4% 44 Sava after the Drina mouth 9.9% -7.0% -11.1% 7.1% -1.2% 5.6% -18.2% -14.3% -6.9% -9.6% 45 Sava @ S. Mitrovica 10.1% -7.1% -11.0% 6.8% -1.2% 6.0% -18.5% -13.8% -7.3% -9.5% 46 Sava before the Kolubara m. 10.2% -7.0% -10.3% 6.2% -1.2% 6.4% -18.6% -12.9% -7.9% -9.4% 47 Kolubara @ Beli Brod 2.5% -39.4% 5.4% 29.7% -7.0% 5.2% -38.5% -3.7% 19.0% -10.7% 48 Kolubara mouth -0.8% -30.4% 6.1% 26.9% -3.4% 1.3% -31.4% -4.6% 21.0% -7.7% 49 Sava after the Kolubara m. 9.9% -7.7% -9.7% 6.7% -1.2% 6.3% -18.9% -12.6% -7.3% -9.3% 50 Sava @ Beograd 10.1% -7.7% -9.7% 6.5% -1.2% 6.7% -18.9% -12.6% -7.3% -9.2% average 9.9% -7.9% -11.7% 6.9% -2.0% 6.1% -18.6% -17.1% -4.6% -9.9% min -11.5% -39.4% -26.4% -15.0% -14.8% -6.9% -38.5% -33.8% -15.6% -18.8% max 29.0% 13.7% 6.1% 29.7% 6.4% 21.9% 2.0% 0.1% 21.0% 0.4%

Page 89 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Table I5: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows – climate model CM5.

2011-2040 2041-2070 No Location DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN 1 Sava @ Šent Jakob -2.8% -3.3% 5.0% 14.3% 3.7% 39.2% -11.5% -7.2% 4.0% 3.1% 2 Ljubljanica @ Moste -3.0% -10.6% 10.8% 16.2% 3.6% 48.2% -4.2% -13.7% 2.6% 7.0% 3 Sava @ Litija -3.1% -5.5% 7.5% 15.1% 3.8% 40.5% -8.4% -8.5% 3.7% 4.6% 4 Savinja @ Laško -10.1% -6.3% 7.0% 23.6% 4.0% 13.8% -8.8% 17.5% 12.5% 8.8% 5 Sava after the Savinja mouth -4.4% -5.7% 8.0% 17.1% 4.1% 34.5% -8.5% -1.4% 5.5% 5.6% 6 Krka @ Podbočje -0.7% -8.9% 29.5% 14.4% 8.1% 19.4% -12.1% 5.1% 10.0% 3.7% 7 Sava @ Čatež -3.5% -6.5% 12.6% 16.6% 5.2% 30.6% -9.0% 0.5% 6.4% 5.3% 8 Sava @ Zagreb -3.6% -7.9% 15.7% 15.5% 5.3% 25.9% -9.4% 6.9% 7.2% 6.4% 9 Sava @ Rugvica -3.6% -8.1% 16.2% 15.3% 5.3% 24.6% -9.5% 8.6% 7.2% 6.6% 10 Kupa @ Brodarci -1.5% -7.1% 14.4% 11.2% 2.8% 6.8% -9.2% 2.9% 6.3% 1.2% 11 Kupa @ J. Kiselica -4.5% -8.8% 18.7% 12.5% 2.3% -1.0% -14.5% 7.7% 8.7% -1.3% 12 Kupa @ Farkašić -4.2% -7.3% 20.4% 11.5% 3.0% -1.5% -12.6% 5.8% 8.7% -1.1% 13 Kupa mouth -4.3% -7.4% 22.7% 12.7% 3.7% -2.4% -12.3% 4.9% 9.0% -1.3% 14 Sava @ Crnac -4.0% -7.8% 18.4% 14.3% 4.7% 10.7% -10.7% 7.3% 7.9% 3.2% 15 Sava before the Una mouth -3.1% -8.6% 21.2% 14.3% 5.3% 10.0% -9.0% 8.7% 8.2% 4.0% 16 Una @ Kralje 1.8% -9.4% 4.9% 3.1% -1.0% 0.0% 1.5% -5.6% 2.7% -0.1% 17 Sana @ Prijedor 8.9% -6.9% 20.7% 12.5% 6.1% 10.5% 6.5% -1.1% 8.6% 6.4% 18 Una @ Novi Grad nizv. 4.2% -6.5% 12.2% 7.2% 2.7% 1.7% 4.6% -2.2% 6.0% 2.8% 19 Una @ Kostajnica 4.4% -6.5% 12.8% 7.3% 3.0% 1.3% 5.0% -1.7% 6.2% 2.9% 20 Una mouth 4.5% -6.6% 13.6% 7.3% 3.2% 0.9% 5.3% -0.7% 6.4% 3.2% 21 Sava @ Jasenovac -1.0% -8.0% 19.4% 12.8% 4.7% 7.5% -4.7% 6.4% 7.8% 3.8% 22 Sava @ Mačkovac -0.6% -8.4% 18.4% 12.9% 4.6% 7.9% -4.3% 5.8% 6.9% 3.6% 23 Vrbas @ Han Skela 9.1% -4.7% 9.7% 15.8% 5.3% 11.7% -1.9% -8.7% 3.9% 0.9% 24 Pliva @ Volari 15.3% -7.1% 10.7% 11.8% 5.5% 16.0% -7.5% -7.9% -0.5% -0.7% 25 Vrbas @ Bočac 15.2% -6.5% 10.4% 16.3% 6.5% 17.2% -6.2% -8.6% 0.0% -0.2% 26 Vrbas @ Delibašino Selo 15.9% -6.9% 13.0% 16.5% 7.3% 15.7% -4.4% -8.0% 1.8% 0.7% 27 Vrbas mouth 17.2% -7.8% 14.6% 17.3% 8.0% 15.3% -2.8% -7.7% 2.5% 1.4% 28 Sava @ Davor 1.6% -8.3% 17.9% 13.4% 5.0% 8.8% -4.0% 4.0% 6.4% 3.3% 29 Sava @ Slavonski Brod 2.1% -8.6% 16.7% 13.3% 4.8% 9.1% -3.5% 3.5% 5.4% 3.2% 30 Sava before the Bosna mouth 2.1% -8.6% 16.4% 13.2% 4.7% 9.3% -3.3% 3.4% 4.9% 3.2% 31 Bosna @ Dobrinje 21.3% -1.9% 16.1% 7.0% 9.5% 5.4% -16.7% -25.4% -31.3% -16.2% 32 Bosna @ Raspotočje 18.6% -1.7% 14.3% 16.0% 9.8% 9.2% -16.2% -20.8% -23.3% -12.9% 33 Bosna @ Maglaj 15.2% -1.5% 14.9% 15.5% 9.2% 5.6% -16.2% -20.7% -25.5% -14.1% 34 Bosna @ Doboj 17.3% -0.5% 15.9% 19.8% 11.5% 6.4% -11.4% -19.8% -23.4% -11.6% 35 Bosna mouth 17.6% -0.2% 16.6% 21.2% 12.1% 6.9% -10.2% -19.5% -22.8% -10.9% 36 Sava after the Bosna mouth 4.6% -7.1% 16.5% 14.3% 5.9% 8.9% -4.5% -0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 37 Sava @ Županja 4.6% -7.0% 16.5% 14.1% 5.9% 9.1% -4.4% -0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 38 Sava before the Drina mouth 4.7% -6.9% 16.4% 13.6% 5.9% 9.4% -4.2% -0.3% -0.6% 0.8% 39 Drina @ Foča nizv. 4.5% -2.2% 4.3% 3.7% 1.7% 5.4% -3.9% -12.1% -6.4% -3.4% 40 Lim @ Priboj 3.7% -0.5% 5.6% 8.2% 3.3% 10.4% -7.2% -13.8% 3.3% -3.1% 41 Drina @ Bajina Bašta 4.1% -1.3% 6.9% 5.1% 2.7% 7.9% -5.7% -11.4% -4.4% -3.3% 42 Drina @ Radalj 5.3% -1.8% 6.5% 4.4% 2.6% 8.5% -5.8% -9.9% -4.0% -2.9% 43 Drina mouth 7.4% -0.9% 8.6% 7.2% 4.4% 10.6% -4.0% -9.8% -4.2% -1.9% 44 Sava after the Drina mouth 5.4% -5.2% 14.7% 12.2% 5.5% 9.7% -4.1% -2.3% -1.4% 0.2% 45 Sava @ S. Mitrovica 5.6% -5.2% 14.5% 12.0% 5.5% 9.9% -4.0% -2.4% -1.9% 0.1% 46 Sava before the Kolubara m. 6.0% -5.0% 14.2% 11.8% 5.6% 10.2% -3.5% -2.7% -2.7% 0.1% 47 Kolubara @ Beli Brod 23.8% 3.0% 28.3% 40.1% 20.3% 28.2% -5.7% -19.3% -5.4% -2.6% 48 Kolubara mouth 16.5% 5.6% 20.2% 37.3% 17.6% 17.0% -1.1% -16.8% -8.9% -2.8% 49 Sava after the Kolubara m. 6.2% -4.7% 14.4% 12.4% 5.9% 10.3% -3.5% -3.2% -2.9% 0.0% 50 Sava @ Beograd 6.3% -4.8% 14.0% 12.1% 5.7% 10.4% -3.3% -3.5% -3.2% -0.1% average 4.9% -5.4% 14.4% 13.9% 5.7% 12.6% -6.1% -4.0% 0.2% 0.1% min -10.1% -10.6% 4.3% 3.1% -1.0% -2.4% -16.7% -25.4% -31.3% -16.2% max 23.8% 5.6% 29.5% 40.1% 20.3% 48.2% 6.5% 17.5% 12.5% 8.8%

Page 90 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Table I6: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows – ensemble median values.

2011-2040 2041-2070 No Location DJF MAM JJA SON ANN DJF MAM JJA SON ANN 1 Sava @ Šent Jakob 0.7% -1.9% -0.1% -0.7% -0.6% 24.4% -1.6% -10.2% 0.0% 1.8% 2 Ljubljanica @ Moste 7.5% -3.9% -0.6% -6.7% -1.3% 41.9% 3.5% -13.5% -0.6% 7.3% 3 Sava @ Litija 3.7% -4.1% -0.5% -5.4% -2.0% 30.3% -0.5% -9.2% -0.9% 3.7% 4 Savinja @ Laško 5.3% -8.4% -5.8% 1.0% -2.5% 10.9% -2.0% -9.4% 8.4% 1.1% 5 Sava after the Savinja mouth 4.0% -3.8% -2.3% -4.3% -2.0% 27.1% -0.5% -8.7% 1.1% 3.6% 6 Krka @ Podbočje 15.5% -2.3% 0.2% 0.7% 2.5% 17.7% -6.7% -24.3% 8.1% -2.7% 7 Sava @ Čatež 5.6% -4.4% -2.2% -2.5% -1.3% 23.6% -2.3% -13.1% 0.8% 1.0% 8 Sava @ Zagreb 6.7% -5.3% -2.5% -2.0% -1.2% 20.1% -2.7% -15.2% 4.5% 0.7% 9 Sava @ Rugvica 7.3% -5.3% -2.3% -2.2% -1.1% 19.6% -2.7% -15.4% 5.2% 0.8% 10 Kupa @ Brodarci 6.0% -10.5% -10.5% -0.9% -3.6% 4.6% -15.4% -20.7% 1.9% -6.6% 11 Kupa @ J. Kiselica 6.8% -14.2% -10.3% -1.1% -4.6% 4.7% -23.0% -18.7% 2.9% -8.5% 12 Kupa @ Farkašić 7.0% -15.0% -10.1% -2.4% -5.0% 4.1% -23.9% -19.5% 1.1% -9.4% 13 Kupa mouth 9.1% -16.0% -9.0% -3.4% -4.9% 5.6% -25.4% -18.1% 0.5% -9.5% 14 Sava @ Crnac 7.3% -12.1% -4.8% -1.8% -3.2% 9.9% -14.2% -17.0% 1.7% -5.0% 15 Sava before the Una mouth 8.6% -11.3% -2.9% -2.0% -2.2% 8.8% -13.9% -15.1% 0.5% -5.0% 16 Una @ Kralje 15.6% -10.4% -14.2% 1.5% -2.1% 10.1% -10.3% -18.5% -8.0% -6.4% 17 Sana @ Prijedor 13.8% -10.6% -17.3% 1.3% -3.9% 12.9% -10.6% -23.0% -8.2% -7.3% 18 Una @ Novi Grad nizv. 12.1% -9.5% -15.0% 3.9% -2.4% 7.0% -10.3% -19.2% -5.8% -6.8% 19 Una @ Kostajnica 11.6% -9.6% -15.1% 3.9% -2.6% 6.9% -10.7% -19.0% -6.1% -7.0% 20 Una mouth 10.4% -9.8% -15.1% 3.0% -3.2% 6.3% -11.2% -19.0% -6.4% -7.4% 21 Sava @ Jasenovac 10.3% -12.2% -6.0% -2.8% -3.1% 8.5% -14.8% -16.0% -1.8% -6.2% 22 Sava @ Mačkovac 10.3% -11.8% -7.3% -2.2% -3.1% 9.9% -14.7% -15.6% -2.5% -6.0% 23 Vrbas @ Han Skela 13.5% -6.9% -5.4% 3.7% 0.2% 9.2% -6.6% -8.4% -1.1% -2.2% 24 Pliva @ Volari 21.4% -8.8% -2.0% -2.0% 1.2% 19.4% -11.8% -6.0% -3.5% -1.5% 25 Vrbas @ Bočac 20.8% -9.7% -5.6% -0.8% -0.1% 18.8% -12.8% -9.9% -6.9% -3.7% 26 Vrbas @ Delibašino Selo 18.4% -9.8% -9.0% -3.1% -1.8% 15.3% -12.6% -13.9% -9.6% -5.8% 27 Vrbas mouth 17.8% -9.9% -9.2% -4.3% -2.2% 13.9% -12.1% -14.6% -9.9% -6.1% 28 Sava @ Davor 11.0% -11.3% -7.5% -1.5% -2.7% 10.8% -14.1% -14.5% -3.3% -5.6% 29 Sava @ Slavonski Brod 10.9% -11.1% -7.8% -1.2% -2.7% 11.7% -14.2% -14.7% -4.3% -5.7% 30 Sava before the Bosna mouth 10.9% -10.8% -7.8% -1.1% -2.6% 12.1% -14.1% -14.6% -4.7% -5.7% 31 Bosna @ Dobrinje 21.8% -14.1% -4.9% -4.6% -1.1% 10.5% -17.6% -21.8% -18.8% -11.7% 32 Bosna @ Raspotočje 22.2% -11.8% -6.5% 2.6% -0.2% 14.9% -20.6% -18.2% -13.4% -10.7% 33 Bosna @ Maglaj 20.7% -10.0% -5.3% 3.1% 0.5% 14.0% -20.2% -16.4% -12.5% -10.3% 34 Bosna @ Doboj 20.4% -9.6% -6.7% 4.4% 0.7% 11.0% -18.1% -14.4% -14.2% -9.9% 35 Bosna mouth 19.6% -10.6% -7.3% 5.8% 0.3% 11.3% -17.6% -13.6% -14.9% -9.6% 36 Sava after the Bosna mouth 11.0% -10.5% -7.6% 0.5% -2.2% 11.5% -14.8% -15.8% -7.5% -7.1% 37 Sava @ Županja 11.0% -10.3% -7.5% 0.6% -2.1% 11.9% -14.8% -15.4% -7.9% -7.0% 38 Sava before the Drina mouth 11.2% -10.1% -7.1% 0.6% -1.9% 12.7% -14.8% -14.7% -8.9% -6.8% 39 Drina @ Foča nizv. 3.1% -0.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.9% 11.4% -3.2% -7.4% 2.9% 1.0% 40 Lim @ Priboj 8.4% -3.9% 3.1% 1.3% 1.1% 10.3% -3.9% -15.1% 9.9% -0.7% 41 Drina @ Bajina Bašta 4.2% -2.6% 2.7% 1.3% 0.7% 9.2% -3.9% -9.6% 6.8% 0.2% 42 Drina @ Radalj 5.3% -3.0% 2.2% 1.2% 0.7% 8.8% -4.6% -9.2% 5.9% -0.3% 43 Drina mouth 8.3% -1.9% 3.9% 4.7% 2.9% 9.7% -4.8% -11.8% 7.2% -0.5% 44 Sava after the Drina mouth 10.5% -6.9% -3.6% 1.7% -0.2% 13.1% -10.2% -14.5% -7.1% -4.9% 45 Sava @ S. Mitrovica 10.4% -6.8% -3.4% 1.6% -0.1% 13.4% -10.2% -14.4% -7.8% -5.0% 46 Sava before the Kolubara m. 10.6% -6.9% -3.0% 1.7% 0.0% 13.4% -10.1% -14.1% -8.7% -5.1% 47 Kolubara @ Beli Brod 13.1% -23.1% 1.2% 11.4% -2.8% 6.1% -26.7% -24.0% -7.3% -16.2% 48 Kolubara mouth 8.0% -19.9% 4.4% 13.8% -0.6% 3.3% -21.8% -19.6% -5.5% -12.8% 49 Sava after the Kolubara m. 10.5% -7.5% -2.4% 1.7% -0.1% 13.6% -10.3% -14.0% -8.4% -5.1% 50 Sava @ Beograd 10.6% -7.5% -2.6% 1.6% -0.1% 13.6% -10.3% -13.8% -8.8% -5.0% average 11.0% -9.0% -5.1% 0.4% -1.4% 13.0% -11.4% -15.1% -3.3% -4.7% min 0.7% -23.1% -17.3% -6.7% -5.0% 3.3% -26.7% -24.3% -18.8% -16.2% max 22.2% -0.6% 4.4% 13.8% 2.9% 41.9% 3.5% -6.0% 9.9% 7.3%

Page 91 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

APPENDIX J: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows in the future compared to 1961-1990 – ensemble median values

Page 92 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix J: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows in the future compared to 1961-1990 – ensemble median values (continued)

Page 93 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix J: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows in the future compared to 1961-1990 – ensemble median values (continued)

Page 94 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix J: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows in the future compared to 1961-1990 – ensemble median values (continued)

Page 95 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin

Appendix J: Change in mean seasonal and annual streamflows in the future compared to 1961-1990 – ensemble median values (continued)