Diversifying Chile's Climate Action Away from Industrial Plantations

Environmental Science and Policy 124 (2021) 85–89

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Environmental Science and Policy

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Diversifying Chile’s climate action away from industrial plantations

Jorge Hoyos-Santillan a,b,c,d,*, Alejandro Miranda b,c,d,e, Antonio Lara b,f,g, Armando Sepulveda-Jauregui b,c,d, Carlos Zamorano-Elgueta b,h, Susana Gomez-Gonz´ alez´ b,i,j, Felipe Vasquez-Lavín´ b,k,l, Rene D. Garreaud b,m, Maisa Rojas b,m a School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington, Loughborough, UK b Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Metropolitan Region, Chile c Network for Extreme Environments Research, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, La Araucanía, Chile d Environmental Biogeochemistry in Extreme Ecosystems Laboratory, University of Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Magallanes, Chile e Laboratorio de Ecología del Paisaje y Conservacion,´ Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, La Araucanía, Chile f Instituto de Conservacion,´ Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Los Ríos, Chile g Fundacion´ Centro de los Bosques Nativos-FORECOS, Valdivia, Los Ríos, Chile h Departamento de Ciencias Naturales y Tecnología, Universidad de Ays´en, Coyhaique, Ays´en, Chile i Departamento de Biología-IVAGRO, Universidad de Cadiz,´ Puerto Real, Cadiz,´ Spain j Center for Fire and Socioecological Systems (FireSES), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Los Ríos, Chile k School of Business and Economics, Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Metropolitan Region, Chile l Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Metropolitan Region, Chile m Geophysics Department, University of Chile, Santiago, Metropolitan Region, Chile

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords As president of the Climate Change Conference of the Parties, Chile has advocated for developing ambitious Climate action commitments to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2050. However, Chile’s Wildfires motivations and ambitious push to reach carbon-neutrality are complicated by a backdrop of severe drought, Nature-based solutions climate change impacts (i.e., wildfires, tree mortality), and the use of industrial plantations as a mitigation Native forest strategy. This has become more evident as widespread and severe wildfires have impacted large areas of in Carbon neutrality Net-zero dustrial plantations, transforming the land-use, land-use change, and forestry sector from a carbon sink to a net carbon source. Consequently, Chile must diversify its climate actions to achieve carbon-neutrality. Nature-based solutions, including wetlands-peatlands and oceans, represent alternative climate actions that can be imple mented to tackle greenhouse gas emissions at a national level. Diversification, however, must guarantee Chile’s long-term carbon sequestration capacity without compromising the ecological functionality of biodiverse tree- less habitats and native forest ecosystems.

1. Introduction arena. In 2019, Chile became president of the Climate Change Confer ence of the Parties (COP25); this appointment was extended until International agreements and policies have thus far fallen short in November 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, making Chile’s presi guiding the world down a sustainable path towards limiting global dency the longest in the history of the COP. Chile has been a major warming (Hohne¨ et al., 2020). Even with strict compliance to the un advocate for developing ambitious commitments to mitigate greenhouse conditional commitments to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions pre gas emissions to achieve carbon neutrality by the second half of this ◦ sented in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), a 3.2 C rise century. At present, 127 countries, responsible for 63 % of the emissions, in temperature above pre-industrial levels is anticipated by 2100 are considering adopting climate actions toward net-zero CO2 emissions (Hohne¨ et al., 2020; United Nations Environment Programme, 2019). by 2050, and 32 countries, including Chile, have made carbon neutrality Motivated by this concern, Chile, which due to climate change is one of legally binding (Hohne¨ et al., 2020). the most drought-stricken countries in the Americas (Garreaud et al., Chile’s carbon neutrality roadmap considers a public-private in 2020), has taken a more active role in the international climate policy vestment of U.S.$ 71 billion in the energy sector, which is responsible for

* Corresponding author at: School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington, Loughborough, UK. E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Hoyos-Santillan). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.06.013 Received 26 November 2020; Received in revised form 8 April 2021; Accepted 14 June 2021 Available online 17 June 2021 1462-9011/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. J. Hoyos-Santillan et al. Environmental Science and Policy 124 (2021) 85–89

78 % of the country’s emissions. The funds will be dedicated to (i) and Barbosa, 2019; Paritsis and Aizen, 2008). phasing-out coal-firedpower plants; (ii) increasing the use of renewable According to Chile’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, LULUCF is sources in electricity generation; (iii) improving the efficiencyof energy the only sector currently acting as a carbon sink (Ministry of the Envi production, transmission, and consumption; (iv) supporting electro- ronment, 2020a). Nevertheless, its carbon sink capacity lies entirely in mobility; and (v) promoting the construction of energy-efficient hous native forests (Lara et al., 2019) (Fig. 1). By contrast, the 3.1 million ha ing and buildings (Clerc, 2020). If properly implemented, these actions of Chile’s industrial plantations, mainly constituted of Pinus radiata (61 will lead to a gradual drop in the energy sector’s annual greenhouse gas %) and Eucalyptus sp. (33 %) (Ministry of Agriculture, 2021) (Table 1), 1 emissions from its current 87 MtCO2eq y to such an extent that they have consistently acted as a net carbon source. This is because their could be offset by the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) carbon uptake is cancelled out by the clear-cut harvesting that occurs sector by 2050 (Clerc, 2020). Thus, Chile relies on the LULUCF sector to every 12–18 years for the production of short-lived goods (e.g., pulp), mitigate the totality of its remaining emissions from the energy sector (i. the burning of firewood, slash and burn practices, and wildfires (John 1 e., 55 MtCO2eq y ). However, the capacity of LULUCF to consistently ston and Radeloff, 2019; Ministry of the Environment, 2020a). Thus, act as a carbon sink is arguable considering the current strategy of using intensive, short-rotation industrial plantations of exotic trees as climate action and the uncertainty of the future carbon sink capacity of native Table 1 forests under the anticipated climate change scenarios. General information: LULUCF sector and NDC contribution. General land cover information (ha) a 2. Choosing the right trees Chile’s continental land area 75,593,200 Total area of native forests 14,636,759b Total area of industrial plantations 3,114,000b 2.1. Industrial plantations as climate action Tree cover lossc (ha y 1) Industrial plantations 96,869 As a key component of Chile’s mitigation strategy, the country’s NDC Native forests 12,884 d includes the following LULUCF climate actions: (i) sustainable man LULUCF NDC contributions by 2030 (ha) Sustainable management of native forests 200,000 agement of 200,000 ha of native forest; (ii) an additional 100,000 ha of Additional industrial plantations 100,000 industrial plantations; (iii) the afforestation of 100,000 ha (70 % native Afforestation with native forests 70,000 forest and 30 % non-native species); and (iv) the reduction of forest Afforestation with industrial plantations 30,000 e degradation and deforestation associated with forestry. These actions Reduction of forest degradation and deforestation (%) 25 1 National Plan for Restauration of Landscapes 1,000,000 are expected to contribute to a carbon sink of 7.4 MtCO2eq y from GHG emissions/captures 2017 (MtCO2eq) 2030 to 2050 on top of the LULUCF sector’s existing sink capacity of 65 Chile’s total GHG emissions without LULUCFa 111.22 1 MtCO2eq y (Gobierno de Chile, 2020; Ministry of the Environment, LULUCF captures without wildfires 65 f 2018). Chile’s NDC also includes the development of a National Plan for Wildfires emissions 78 ± 13 the Restoration of Landscapes comprising 1 million ha. The plan is a Ministry of the Environment (2020a). currently under development, but it does consider the use of industrial b Ministry of Agriculture (2021). Industrial plantations are mainly constituted plantations as part of the restoration actions. However, during the past by monocultures of Pinus radiata (1,886,107 ha) and Eucalyptus sp. (1,040,000 two decades, tree cover loss of both native forests and industrial plan ha). In-depth information regarding native forests and industrial plantations tations due to deforestation, clear-cutting, harvesting, and natural di composition are available at CONAF (2017b). c sasters has reached 158,000 ± 71,800 ha y 1 (Altamirano et al., 2020; Altamirano et al. (2020) mean estimation between 2000 and 2016. Tree Hansen et al., 2013). This loss is mainly associated with the harvest of cover loss in industrial plantations mostly returned to be industrial plantations, whilst native forests were converted to transitional cover land vegetation (e.g., industrial plantations and is thus concentrated in the central part of shrubland, grassland, bare land) that can ultimately be converted to industrial Chile, where 92 % of industrial plantations are located (Heilmayr et al., plantations. 2020). In addition, the use of industrial plantations as a mechanism to d Gobierno de Chile (2020). achieve carbon neutrality has been strongly criticized by the scientific e Reduce emissions with respect to average emissions in the community because they are associated with increasing water demand period.2001–2013. in drought-affected areas, negative impacts on biodiversity, fragmen f CONAF (2017b); Hoyos-Santillan et al. (2020); Ministry of the Environment tation of the landscape, social-cultural conflicts, and wildfires (Duran´ (2020b).

Fig. 1. Greenhouse gas emissions (+ values; dark green and orange bars for native forests and industrial plantations, respectively) and removals ( values; light green and orange bars for native forests and industrial plantations, respectively) from industrial plantations and native forests in Chile (1990-2017). Emissions comprise harvest, firewood, and wildfires; re movals comprise biomass increase (CONAF, 2017a; Hoyos-Santillan et al., 2020; Ministry of the Environment, 2018). During 2017, green house gas emissions from wildfires exceeded the removals from industrial plantations and native forests, transforming the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector from a carbon sink to a net carbon source. During 2017, greenhouse gas emissions from wildfiresexceeded the removals from industrial plantations and native forests, transforming the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector from a sink to a net source.

86 J. Hoyos-Santillan et al. Environmental Science and Policy 124 (2021) 85–89 each additional hectare of industrial plantation, including those in the Chile (Garreaud et al., 2020), the carbon capture of one-third of the NDC, does not increase the carbon sink capacity of the LULUCF sector forests in the region has declined (Miranda et al., 2020). Thus, in the but is instead an additional burden on the carbon sink capacity of native context of the climate crisis, Chile’s government must implement an forests, representing a setback in the pathway to carbon neutrality. This ambitious strategy to support the restoration of native forests by has become more evident during the last decade as widespread and se following a similar approach to that successfully used to promote the vere wildfireshave impacted larger areas of industrial plantations than expansion of industrial plantations in previous decades. native forests (CONAF, 2020). The fireselective preference of industrial Between 1974 and 2013, the Chilean government granted U.S.$ 561 plantations over native forests is driven by several factors, including: i) million in incentives to establish 1.25 million ha of industrial plantations human activities (e.g., anthropogenic ignition) and ii) replacement of through Decree-Law 701 on Forest Development (LFD) (Heilmayr et al., heterogeneous less fire-pronenative forests with highly flammable,fuel 2020). On the other hand, in 2008, Law 20.283 on Native Forest Re abundant, and homogeneously structured monoculture industrial plan covery and Forestry Development was approved (LNF). The purpose of tations (Boisier et al., 2016; Gomez-Gonz´ alez´ et al., 2018; Marti this law was to protect, recover, and improve native forests by pro nez-Harms et al., 2017; McWethy et al., 2018) (Fig. 2). Together, these moting sustainable forestry practices. However, the resources assigned factors facilitate fire propagation under warm and dry conditions to the LNF were substantially less than those assigned to the LFD. Be (Veblen et al., 2006). tween 2009 and 2017, U.S.$ 120 million was used to promote industrial In 2017, just days before Chile ratified the Paris Agreement, the plantations compared to the U.S.$ 66 million budgeted for the LNF country suffered a series of intensive wildfiresthat impacted 570,000 ha (Ministerio de Hacienda, 2020). In addition, due to the convoluted (Ministry of the Environment, 2020a). These wildfires released processes required to obtain funding through the LNF, and the approximately 78 MtCO2eq (CONAF, 2017a), equivalent to 70 % of the economically uncompetitive offer of these subsidies compared to those total emissions from the energy, industrial processes and product use, designated for industrial plantations, less than a quarter of the LNF and agriculture sectors combined during 2016 (Ministry of the Envi budget has been used since its inception (Lara et al., 2019). Moreover, ronment, 2020a), transforming the LULUCF sector from a carbon sink to 84 % of the LNF subsidies are used for wood production while only 2% is a net carbon source (Fig. 1, Table 1). Two-thirds of these wildfire used for native forest preservation (Lara et al., 2019). Consequently, emissions originated from industrial plantations (Hoyos-Santillan et al., during the last three decades, the rate of native forest loss has reached 2020; Ministry of the Environment, 2020b). Over twenty days, the 2017 ≈13,000 ha y 1 (Table 1) (Altamirano et al., 2020; Lara et al., 2019). wildfires erased more than ten years of the LULUCF’s sector projected Therefore, it is necessary to efficientlyimplement more economically mitigation included in Chile’s NDC (i.e., 74 MtCO2eq), compromising the competitive incentives to promote native forest restoration that very basis upon which the national carbon neutrality strategy is built. adequately account for its carbon capture contribution. Incentives to This highlights the urgent need to stop considering industrial planta increase the carbon sink capacity of native forests should be sufficientto tions as part of Chile’s climate actions and to promote the use of native offset the emissions associated with wildfires,deforestation, an increase forests as the main strategy for the National Plan for the Restoration of in drought-induced tree mortality, and forestry activities. Increasing Landscapes. In addition, the magnitude of the greenhouse gas emissions incentives to promote the restoration of native forests will not be suffi from the 2017 wildfires shown the necessity of developing cient to achieve carbon neutrality; equally important is to adequately high-confidence wildfire prediction models that allow predicting not allocate those resources considering a science-based approach that takes only fire occurrence and intensity (CONAF, 2021; Dacre et al., 2018), into account the future risks and impacts of climate change. Addition but the amount of carbon stocks that are at risk. ally, once the net-zero loss of the carbon sink capacity of native forests is achieved, the net carbon sink capacity of LULUCF should be gradually increased. For this purpose, novel approaches focused on developing a 2.2. Shifting towards native forests multi-nature-based solutions portfolio with high carbon capture and sequestration capacity should be included as part of LULUCF climate As Chile’s carbon neutrality strategy mainly relies on the carbon sink actions in addition to the restoration of native forests. capacity of its native forests, building up and strengthening its carbon sink capacity has become an urgent necessity. This has gained further 3. Diversifying climate action relevance as climate change may negatively impact the native forests long-term carbon capture capacity (Allen et al., 2010; Klein and Hart As the present and future carbon sink capacity of native forests is mann, 2018). For example, due to the mega-drought affecting central

Fig. 2. Native forests (light red bars) and industrial plantations (dark red bars) burnt area (hectares x 1000) between 1985 and 2020 (CONAF, 2020).

87 J. Hoyos-Santillan et al. Environmental Science and Policy 124 (2021) 85–89 uncertain, nature-based solutions (NbS), also known as natural climate Declaration of Competing Interest solutions (Griscom et al., 2020), have been considered as alternatives for diversifying climate actions (Seddon et al., 2020b, 2021). Peatlands, The authors report no declarations of interest. coastal wetlands, and oceans have been incorporated as part of Chile’s NDC to promote the use of NbS among other parties of the Paris Acknowledgments Agreement, as their adequate conservation, restoration, and improved management can contribute to increasing their carbon capture capacity J.H.S. and A.S.J. acknowledge NEXER-UMAG-UFRO funding; J.H.S. and/or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (Griscom et al., 2017). For acknowledges ANID/FONDECYT/11200024 funding; F. V. acknowl example, restoration and reduced conversion of coastal wetlands can edges ANID/PIA/BASAL/FB0002 funding; S.G-G. acknowledges FOR have an immediate impact on reducing emissions associated with PES project PID2019-106908RA-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 biomass loss and soil organic carbon oxidation (Griscom et al., 2017; funding; all authors acknowledge funding from ANID/FONDAP/ IPCC, 2019). In addition, NbS provide multiple ecosystem functions that 15110009. can be accounted as co-benefits (IPCC, 2019). These include positive impacts on biodiversity, water availability, and soil properties, which References are essential to consolidate the adaptation component of NDC, focused on increasing the capacity of Chile to adapt to the negative impacts of Allen, C.D., Macalady, A.K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D.D., Hogg, E.H.(Ted), Gonzalez, P., climate change (Gobierno de Chile, 2020; Griscom et al., 2017). 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