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A GIS-Based Earthquake Damage Prediction in Different Earthquake Models: a Case Study at the University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines

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Philippine Journal of Science 147 (2): 301-316, June 2018 ISSN 0031 - 7683 Date Received: 11 Aug 2017 A GIS-Based Earthquake Damage Prediction in Different Earthquake Models: A Case Study at the University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines Ibnu Rusydy1,3,*, Decibel V. Faustino-Eslava2, Umar Muksin3,5, Richelle Gallardo-Zafra4, 4 6 7 8 Jedidiah Joel C. Aguirre , Nathaniel C. Bantayan , Lubna Alam , and Shruthi Dakey 1Department of Geological Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia 2School of Environmental Science and Management, University of the Philippines, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines 3Tsunami and Disaster Mitigation Research Center, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia 4Department of Civil Engineering, University of Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines 5Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia 6College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines 7LESTARI, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), Selangor, Malaysia 8Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology, Maharashtra, India The University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) is located in an earthquake-prone region and there are numerous earthquake sources that can possibly cause an earthquake at any magnitude anytime. A study of the earthquake damage prediction in several earthquake magnitude and time scenarios in GIS model analysis has been conducted for the UPLB’s campus. This study aims to produce several scenarios of the earthquake models and an intensity map for UPLB’s campus; to determine the damage ratio of the buildings and its distribution in different earthquake scenarios; and to estimate the casualty in the UPLB’s community; as well as to validate the earthquake model with historical earthquakes in the Philippines. Data preparation included the earthquake scenario model using shallow crustal shaking attenuation to produce an intensity map on the bedrock and the surface after site coefficient correction. The earthquake model in different scenarios is generated from the West Valley Fault (with Segment IV as the assumed locus). The damage ratio in different types of buildings was calculated using fragility curves of buildings of the Philippines. Population data of each building in different occupancy times, damage ratios, and injury ratios is used to compute the number of the injured due to an earthquake. The results reveal that UPLB’s building are subject to intensity range of MMI (Modified Mercalli Intensity) 6.7-8.1 due to 6.1-7.7 Mw earthquake coming from different sources along the West Valley Fault. The worst event of an earthquake is 7.7 Mw from Segment IV, which can cause 32-51% damage to buildings and injure 12-24.6% of a building population in a daytime (2 PM) event and injure 8-158 students in a dormitory at 2 AM (nighttime). The validation process shows that the mean square error between the calculated intensity and the actual intensity in the Philippines is 0.35. Key words: damage prediction, earthquake, earthquake loss scenario, GIS, UPLB *Corresponding author: [email protected] 301 Philippine Journal of Science Rusydy et al.: GIS-Based Earthquake Vol. 147 No. 2, June 2018 Damage Prediction at UPLB INTRODUCTION hazard assessment that incorporates both historical earthquakes and active faults in the Philippines. The study The safety of a university is the most pressing need for successfully produced a peak ground acceleration (PGA) students, lecturers, and university members. Universities map of the Philippines in the expected event of 475-year have several types of buildings with different purposes recurrence (10% in 50 years) and occasional events of (academic, services, administrative, and dormitory), some 100-year recurrence (39% in 50 years). The PGA map of which become more vulnerable compared to other is a macrozonation map based on the acceleration in the buildings when an earthquake occurs. The Philippines bedrock; to build a microzonation map, one needs to experiences many destructive earthquakes in various parts determine the surface ground shaking. For Metro Manila, of the country. One of the most remembered earthquakes Miura and co-authors (2008) conducted earthquake is the 1990 Central Luzon earthquake with magnitude damage estimation due to an earthquake scenario and of Ms = 7.8 (Kojima et al. 1992; Wieczorek et al. 1992). estimated the seismic performance of a building based on Therefore, studying earthquake damage prediction in an expert judgment. The damage ratio of the structure is several scenarios becomes necessary to decrease the calculated from the fragility curve that varies with each vulnerability and increase the capacity of the community building, and the distributions of the destroyed buildings in the future. are calculated by considering the damage ratios and the To study building damage prediction in several earthquake building inventory. scenarios based on Geographic Information System In this study, the ArcGIS software was used to transform (GIS) analysis, it is necessary to estimate the earthquake all parameters into actionable information. All parameters intensity in several scenarios of magnitudes and the – such as geological map, amplification map based on source of the earthquake from the fault close to the study standard penetrating test (SPT) data, several earthquake area. This earthquake intensity or ground shaking is the scenarios’ map in MMI, the fault map, and the type of primary factor that causes building damage compared building maps – are converted to shape files. All the maps to liquefaction, landslide, and seismic bearing capacity were classified and used to calculate the damage ratio of (Cinicioglu et al. 2007). The second process is to evaluate UPLB’s buildings, damage distribution, and loss analysis. the damage ratio based on the seismic performance in Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) of each building and the fragility curve in a different type of structures, which Tectonics and Seismicity of the Study Area is proposed by Tingatinga and co-authors (2013). The third The Philippines is located in one of the most seismically step in this study is to calculate the damage distribution active regions of Asia. Several significant and destructive and the number of damaged buildings from the damage earthquakes have occurred almost in every part of the ratio and buildings inventory data at the University of the country. The earthquake of 1990 in Central Luzon with Philippines Los Baños (UPLB). magnitude of Ms 7.8 was the greatest earthquake for the people of the Philippines. The Philippines has many Earthquake damage prediction using the systematic earthquake sources, such as the Philippine Trench, built GIS method was proposed by Miura and co-authors by subduction of the western edge of the Philippine Sea (2008), Hashemi and Alesheikh (2011), and Karimzadeh Plate below the Eurasian Plate; this trench is the primary and co-authors (2014). The method involved several source of earthquakes and causes the Philippines to be geological data such as geological map, groundwater, classified as an earthquake-prone country (Kojima et sedimentological map, alluvial thickness, microtremor al. 1992; Wieczorek et al. 1992; Torregosa et al. 2001). dataset, and earthquake catalog. For an earthquake The trench extends from the south of Mindanao Island to scenario, deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) Luzon Island in the north for a distance of about 1,400 uses the ArcGIS toolset. Karimzadeh and co-authors km and is seismically active (Galgana et al. 2007). The (2014) argue that the DSHA method is accurate where the other sources of earthquakes are the Philippine Fault Zone tectonic setting is reasonably active and well located. To (PFZ), Manila Trench, and West Valley Fault System estimate the building damage ratio, Karimzadeh and co- (WVFS), which roughly parallel the Philippine Trench. authors (2014) used the fragility curve in a different type of buildings as a function of MMI and they estimated the The PFZ formed due to oblique convergence between casualty ratio from historical earthquakes in the study area. the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate (Rowlett & Kelleher 1976; Besana & Ando 2005; Rimando & In the Philippines, numerous studies on earthquake Knuepfer 2006). The PFZ is an active sinistral fault that engineering, including damage prediction, simulation, extends from Mindanao to Luzon Island in a distance and site response, were carried out by several researchers. over 1,600 km long (Rimando & Knuepfer 2006). From Torregosa and co-authors (2001) conducted a strong the southeastern part of Luzon, the PFZ traverses into ground motion simulation technique based on seismic the Ragay Gulf zone and continues southeastward to the 302 Philippine Journal of Science Rusydy et al.: GIS-Based Earthquake Vol. 147 No. 2, June 2018 Damage Prediction at UPLB eastern part of Burias Island; approximately 10 major historical earthquakes occurred along this area (Rowlett & Kelleher 1976). Besana and Ando (2005) noted that the PFZ in Quezon transects to the west seaward of Ticao Island and then enters the southeastern Masbate Island; continuation of the PFZ is found on the island of Leyte along the same trend. The Luzon earthquake (1990) was the most destructive earthquake that occurred in the PFZ. The Manila Trench is an active subduction zone caused by the penetration of the South China Sea plate beneath the northern Philippine Sea Plate.
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