ShoulderUp for Post-Secondary Success Thursday, May 23, 2019 Key Findings Roughly half of Hartford’s cohort enrolls in post-secondary education, but less than one-third persists into their second year of post-secondary
Six-year outcomes, Hartford Public Schools Class of 2016 Cohort 1,468 students in the Class of 2016 cohort
79% graduate in six years
50% enroll in post- secondary education
32% persist into their second year
These outcomes occur at different rates for different groups of students
Note: Analysis defines persistence as half-time enrollment and above, excluding the small number of students who persist only when including less-than-half-time enrollments Source: Hartford Public Schools data; EY-Parthenon analysis Key Findings HPS students who are not Hartford residents are significantly more likely to enroll and persist in post-secondary education than Hartford residents
Six-year outcomes by residence, Hartford Public Schools Class of 2016 Cohort
Hartford Students in 1,161 residents the Class of Non-Hartford 2016 cohort 307 residents
Graduate high 75% school in six years 96%
Enroll in post- 41% secondary education 84%
Persist into 24% their second year of post- secondary 64%
Note: Analysis defines persistence as half-time enrollment and above, excluding the small number of students who persist only when including less-than-half-time enrollments Source: Hartford Public Schools data; EY-Parthenon analysis Where Hartford graduates enroll The majority of college-bound Hartford students enroll in four-year institutions and many persist into their second year
Six-year outcomes, Persistence rate by first institution enrolled, Hartford Public Schools Class of 2016 Cohort Hartford Public Schools Class of 2016 Cohort
1,468 students 730 students 730 students 445 students 285 students 100% 100%
Do not Do not persist graduate Do not 2-year 80% persist 80% institution Do not persist Graduate, do not enroll 60% 2-year 60% institution
40% 40% Persist
Enroll in 4-year post- institution 4-year secondary 20% institution 20% Persist education
0% 0% Six-year cohort Post-secondary Post-secondary Four-year institution Two-year institution outcomes enrollment persistence
Note: Analysis defines persistence as half-time enrollment and above, excluding the small number of students who persist only when including less-than-half-time enrollments Source: Hartford Public Schools data; EY-Parthenon analysis Where Hartford graduates enroll Nearly 30% of Hartford graduates who enroll in a four-year school attend UConn, while almost all two-year enrollers attend MCC or CCC
First higher education institution, Hartford Public Schools Class of 2016 Cohort
445 students 285 students 100% Other Asnuntuck Community College (10 institutions with Tunxis Community College fewer than 5 HPS grads)
Other (117 institutions 80% with fewer than 10 HPS graduates)
Capital Community College
University of 60% Saint Joseph Springfield Southern Connecticut State University College Goodwin College University Of Hartford
40% Eastern Connecticut State University
Central Connecticut State University
Manchester Community College 20%
University Of Connecticut
0% Four-Year Institution Two-Year Institution
Source: Hartford Public Schools data; EY-Parthenon analysis 2016 Cohort outcomes Students from these different backgrounds experience notably different rates of post-secondary success
Six-year outcomes by subgroup, Hartford Public Schools Class of 2016 Cohort
100% Race/ethnicity 100% Economic background
80% 80% Asian 60% White 60% Not free or reduced lunch 40% 40% Black Free or reduced Latino/a 20% 20% lunch
0% 0% Graduate in Enroll in Persist in Graduate in Enroll in Persist in six years an IHE an IHE six years an IHE an IHE
100% IEP status 100% English proficiency
80% 80%
60% 60%
Not an 40% No identified English 4 learner 20% 0% disability 20% English Any identified learner disability 0% 0% Graduate in Enroll in Persist in Graduate in Enroll in Persist in six years an IHE an IHE six years an IHE an IHE
Note: Students who identify as another race/ethnicity are not shown as a distinct group given small sample size Source: Hartford Public Schools data; EY-Parthenon analysis District academic experiences While in high school, Hartford students, on average, earn a C+ average weighted GPA, have ~86% attendance, and take no or few advanced courses
Weighted GPA, Attendance rate, Advanced courses taken, Hartford Public Schools Hartford Public Schools Hartford Public Schools Class of 2016 Cohort Class of 2016 Cohort Class of 2016 Cohort 1,468 students 1,468 students 1,468 students 100% 100% 100% 4.0+ 4+ Adv. 2-3 Adv. 3.5-4.0 Courses Courses 1 Adv. Course 3.0-3.5 95-100% 80% 80% 80%
2.5-3.0 60% 60% 60% 90-95% 2.0-2.5 0 Advanced 40% 40% 40% Courses 85-90% 1.5-2.0 80-85% 75-80% 20% 1.0-1.5 20% 20% <75% <1.0
0% No data 0% No data 0% Class of 2016 Cohort Class of 2016 Cohort Class of 2016 Cohort
Median GPA 2.3 Median Attendance 92% Median # Courses 0 courses Average GPA 2.3 Average Attendance 86% Average # Courses 0.3 courses
Note: Data shown are cumulative over a student’s enrollment in an HPS high school; “Advanced courses” include AP, IB, and Dual Enrollment courses because they can earn students college credit Source: Hartford Public Schools data; EY-Parthenon analysis “On-track” definition We can develop a definition of “on-track for post-secondary success” based on the academic experiences and outcomes of Hartford’s Class of 2016 cohort DRAFT
On-track for post-secondary success definition, Hartford Public Schools Class of 2016 Cohort
Cumulative Weighted GPA
D- - F D D+ C- C C+ B- B B+ A- A
≤ 1.0 1.0 - 1.3 1.3 - 1.7 1.7 - 2.0 2.0 - 2.3 2.3 - 2.7 2.7 - 3.0 3.0 - 3.3 3.3 - 3.7 3.7 - 4.0 4.0+
96% - 100%
91% - 95%
86% - 90%
81% - 85%
76% - 80%
≤ 75% Average Daily Attendance Daily Average
On-track for success On-track for success On-track to graduate, but unprepared Off-track at a 4-year institution at a 2-year institution for post-secondary success
Source: Hartford Public Schools data; EY-Parthenon analysis Current state Applying the definition to students currently in HPS, ~10% of 12th grade students are off-track for graduation, but nearly 40% of 9th grade students are off-track
High school student population by on-/off-track status, Hartford Public Schools, Snapshot view, SY2017-18
1,699 students 1,271 students 1,212 students 1,223 students 100%
80%
60%
40% On-track for success at a 4-year institution On-track for success at a 2-year institution 20% On-track for HS graduation but not post-secondary success Off-track 0% 9th Grade 10th Grade 11th Grade 12th Grade
Note: Excludes students with incomplete attendance or GPA data for SY2017-18 (196 students) Source: Hartford Public Schools data; EY-Parthenon analysis Current state More one third of students in district choice high schools are off-track for graduation, while less than 10% of students in magnet high schools are off-track
High school student population by school type and on-/off-track status, Hartford Public Schools, Snapshot view, SY2017-18
5,328 2,452 2,721 155 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% All students District Choice Schools Magnet Schools Alternative Schools
On-track for success: 4-year inst. On-track for success: 2-year inst. On-track for HS graduation Off-track
Note: Excludes students with incomplete attendance or GPA data for SY2017-18 as well as students enrolled in special education placements out of district; Alternative schools include OPPortunity High and New Visions Source: Hartford Public Schools data; EY-Parthenon analysis Early warning indicators (EWIs) for OFF-TRACK EWIs identify students who are at-risk for falling off track for post-secondary success as soon as they arrive in 9th grade
The data suggest the following 8th grade Early Warning Indicators (EWIs) are predictive of falling off track in high school A B Less than 90% 1 or more days attendance suspended out of school C T 1 or more course Failure on both failure in English or standardized tests math (Reading and Math CMT)
Over the course of high school, 83% of students with an EWI ever fell off track for post-secondary success, compared to 37% of students with no EWIs
Source: Hartford Public Schools data; EY-Parthenon analysis Early warning indicators Students who enter high school with any 8th grade EWI are significantly less likely to be on-track for post-secondary success at the end of ninth grade
9th grade on-/off-track status by EWI status, Hartford Public Schools Class of 2016 Cohort
Not in district No EWIs One EWI Multiple EWIs MS
On-track for success at a 4- year 38% 12% 3% 46% institution
On-track for success at a 2- 33% 20% 11% 23% year institution
Off-track for PSS but likely to 21% 42% 31% 16% graduate
Most at risk not to graduate HS 8% 27% 54% 16%
Note: “Not in district middle schools” includes students not enrolled in HPS for 8th grade and late entrants to HPS; Excludes n=49 students with missing data and 45% of “not in MS” students who enroll in Hartford after 2012-13 Source: Hartford Public Schools data; EY-Parthenon analysis Hartford Public Schools Next steps
We are planning to take these next steps by Fall 2019:
► Create clear, measurable and possible ► Develop a Continuum of Supports for 6-16 interventions to address challenges with persistence, advanced coursework, and ► Establish Student Success Centers at the 3 EWIs neighborhood high schools
► Implement 8th Grade Summer Bridge ► Add 6.5 School Counselors Program for Hartford residents ► Add 15 Student Engagement Specialists ► Host Shoulder Up Post-Secondary Success convening for higher education, ► Expand AP, ECE, CTE offerings and increase corporate and philanthropic partners student access
► Partner with All In! Coalition to support ► Finalize action plan to include school and increases in high school graduation, post- system-level changes necessary to secondary enrollment, and completion improve students' readiness for success in rates college and career
► Identify EWIs for incoming 9th graders and appropriate supports The ALL IN! Coalition for College & Career Readiness
• The purpose of the ALL IN! Coalition is to keep HPS high school and recent graduates on track to post-secondary degree completion. The Coalition has two goals by 2025: • Increase the post-secondary enrollment rate from 61% to 70%; and • Increase the post-secondary completion rate from 23% to 50%.
• The Coalition accomplishes these goals by: 1. Identifying gaps in services and launching action teams that with three or more partners can reallocate resources and develop new programming; and by 2. Coordinating services among cross-sector providers in the hopes that services already being offered to some can then be offered to many more. Currently, the Coalition operates three action teams and two cross-sector networks.
• The Coalition is supported by a backbone organization (Achieve Hartford) and led by a steering committee with representatives from six organizations: • City of Hartford (Mayor’s designee) • Hartford Public Schools (Superintendent’s designee) • Travelers Foundation • Capital Workforce Partners • Hartford Consortium for Higher Education • Hartford Promise All IN! Calls to Action
1. For employers out there with staff who are passionate about Hartford, consider hosting a gathering in your workplace for your employees to hear more about the college and career readiness challenges and opportunities in Hartford, and how your staff can get involved as action team members alongside other cross-sector leaders, or as mentors to students on the post-secondary journey. 2. If you’re a youth-serving nonprofit doing either college access or workforce development work, join one of our two networks – College Supports Network and Work-Based Learning Network – as those two groups of practitioners figure out how to get more students the services they need. 3. For employers who want to train the workforce of the future, take on a student intern this summer or upcoming school year, or commit to providing other work-based learning such as job-shadowing. 4. For anyone who has ideas they’d like to share about how to support Hartford’s local talent pipeline, take a meeting with someone from the All IN! Coalition and share your ideas and passion.