6. David Dunlop

BEFORE A BOARD OF INQUIRY PEKA PEKA TO NORTH ŌTAKI EXPRESSWAY PROJECT

In the matter of the Resource Management Act 1991

And

In the matter of a notice of requirement and resource consent applications by the NZ Transport Agency for the Peka Peka to North Ōtaki Expressway Project

And

In the matter of a notice of requirement by New Zealand Railways Corporation / KiwiRail Holdings Limited (trading as KiwiRail) for the realignment of a section of the North Island Main Trunk railway line through Ōtaki

STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF DAVID DUNLOP (TRANSPORTATION) ON BEHALF OF THE APPLICANTS 12 July 2013

Barristers and Solicitors Wellington

Solicitors Acting: Paul Beverley / David Randal Email: [email protected] Tel 64-4-499 4242 Fax 64-4-499 4141 PO Box 2694 DX SP20201 Wellington 6140

TABLE OF CONTENTS

QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE...... 2 BACKGROUND AND ROLE ...... 3 SCOPE OF EVIDENCE ...... 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 5 EXISTING TRANSPORTATION ENVIRONMENT ...... 8 PROJECT FORM AND ALIGNMENT ...... 14 TRANSPORTATION ASSESSMENT AND MODELLING METHODOLOGY...... 15 OPERATIONAL EFFECTS OF THE PROJECT ...... 20 TRANSPORT EFFECTS DURING CONSTRUCTION ...... 31 ASSESSMENT OF THE PROJECT AGAINST RELEVANT TRANSPORT STRATEGIES AND POLICIES, AND THE PROJECT OBJECTIVES ...... 35 RESPONSE TO SUBMISSIONS ...... 43 CONCLUSION...... 48 ANNEXURE A – PROPOSED DISTRICT PLAN TRANSPORT NETWORK HIERARCHY ...... 50 ANNEXURE B – PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK ...... 51 ANNEXURE C – ADDITIONAL SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT INFORMATION ...... 52

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QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE

1. My name is David James Dunlop.

2. I am a Principal Transport Planner, the Transportation Work Group Manager and a Partner at Opus International Consultants in Wellington.

3. I have the following qualifications and experience relevant to the evidence I shall give:

(a) MSc in Planning Studies (focusing on Transportation), Oxford Brookes University in the United Kingdom (1996/97); and

(b) Bachelor of Resource & Environmental Planning, Massey University in New Zealand (1992/95).

4. I have 15 years of experience in the planning, assessment and design of transportation projects in New Zealand and the United Kingdom, working for a wide range of central government organisations, local and regional authorities, and private developers, both as an employee and a consultant.

5. I have provided advice on transportation matters to the NZ Transport Agency ("NZTA"), a number of local authorities and private developers, in respect of various proposed developments. I have provided expert transportation evidence to the Environment Court, including for the Kāpiti Coast District Council ("KCDC") in relation to the Paraparaumu Airport Plan Change 82.

6. I have also been involved in a number of significant projects within the Wellington Region:

(a) Kāpiti Traffic Model ("KTM")-SATURN project assessment and modelling, 2006- 2010;

(b) Western Link Road Scheme Assessment and Detail Design 2007-2009;

(d) Transmission Gully Scheme Assessment and Economic Evaluation, 2008-2012;

(e) Basin Reserve Transport Improvements 2008-2013; and

(f) Wellington Transport Strategy Model ("WTSM") and Wellington Public Transport Model 2011 update and model build, 2011-2012.

7. I am a member of a number of relevant associations including:

(a) Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport; and

(b) Affiliate Member of the IPENZ Transportation Group.

8. I confirm that I have read the 'Code of Conduct' for expert witnesses contained in the Environment Court Practice Note 2011. My evidence has been prepared in

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compliance with that Code. In particular, unless I state otherwise, this evidence is within my sphere of expertise and I have not omitted to consider material facts known to me that might alter or detract from the opinions I express.

BACKGROUND AND ROLE

9. My evidence is given in relation to the notices of requirement and resource consent applications lodged by the NZTA and KiwiRail for the Peka Peka to North Ōtaki Expressway (the "Expressway") and North Island Main Trunk ("NIMT") Railway realignment (together, the "Project").

10. I have been involved in the Project for the last three years in the capacity of Deputy Team Leader, Transportation Lead and Transportation Specialist. Prior to the decision on the preferred scheme for the Project, I was involved in the following pieces of work directly related to the Project area:

(a) Ōtaki Parking and Traffic Study, 2009;

(b) Ōtaki South Riverside Development Transport Review for NZTA, 2008-2009;

(d) Peka Peka to Ōtaki Scoping Study, 2011; and

(e) Peka Peka to Ōtaki Scheme Assessment Addendum and supporting Draft Transportation Assessment, 2012.

11. In preparing my evidence I have:

(a) undertaken numerous site visits throughout different phases of the Project, and have a detailed understanding of the Project area;

(b) prepared and managed the assessment of options and transport solutions for the Project;

(c) attended public engagement, community open days, community board meetings and meetings with KCDC and Greater Wellington Regional Council ("GWRC"); and

(d) been involved in specialist workshops and expert meetings as appropriate.

12. As part of the Scheme Assessment phase of the Project I was involved in the consideration of alternative Expressway alignments, which included the alternatives assessment managed by Ms Sylvia Allan, and analysis of alternative intersection forms, access arrangements, connections, and facilities under the management of Mr Tony Coulman. This work involved transportation assessment, transport modelling, option evaluation, design and reporting.

13. I lead the team that assessed and prepared Technical Report 6: Integrated Transport Assessment dated January 2013 (the "Integrated Transport Assessment") in volume 3 of the Assessment of Environmental Effects Report ("AEE").

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14. In preparing my evidence I have relied on the evidence of Mr Coulman (design and consultation), and Mr Derek Holmes (construction methodology), and the technical reports relating to the Design Philosophy Statement (Technical Report 1) and the Construction Methodology Report (Technical Report 5).

15. In the developing my evidence I have worked with Mr Coulman, Mr Holmes, Dr Stephen Chiles (noise), Mr Andrew Curtis (air quality), Mr Mike Copeland (economics), Ms Wendy Turvey (social effects), and Mr Bruce Curtain (urban design). My team also prepared the draft Construction Traffic Management Plan ("CTMP") and I have provided inputs into the draft Construction Environmental Management Plan ("CEMP") and the indicative draft Site-Specific Environmental Management Plans ("SSEMP"). I also advised on the proposed designation conditions, attached to the evidence of Ms Rebecca Beals.

SCOPE OF EVIDENCE

16. My evidence addresses the following matters:

(a) the existing transportation environment;

(b) Project form and alignment;

(d) operational effects of the Project (including mitigation), encompassing:

(i) traffic reassignment;

(ii) travel time forecasts;

(iii) travel time reliability;

(iv) Expressway and local traffic connectivity;

(v) route security and resilience;

(vi) road safety;

(vii) public transport users;

(viii) pedestrians, cyclists, and equestrians; and

(ix) property access;

(e) temporary transportation effects during construction (including mitigation);

(f) assessment of the Project against relevant transport strategies and policies;

(g) assessment of the Project against the Project objectives;

(h) a response to submissions; and

(i) conclusions.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Background

17. The Expressway is one of eight sections of the Wellington Northern Corridor RoNS, which forms part of the Government's package of RoNS proposals. RoNS are part of the Government's strategy to unlock economic growth potential. Investment in the RoNS is expected to significantly improve access within and through New Zealand's largest cities and improve critical parts of our national freight and tourism routes. The Wellington Northern Corridor RoNS will improve journey times between Levin and Wellington Airport.

18. This Project aims to:

(a) enhance inter-regional and national economic growth and productivity;

(b) enhance efficiency and journey time reliability between and through Kāpiti district;

(d) appropriately balance the competing functional requirements of inter-regional and local traffic movements; and

(e) facilitate others to provide modal choice opportunities.

19. The Project follows State Highway 1 ("SH1") accessing the Wellington Region from the north. The SH1 corridor and the adjacent NIMT form the only strategic transport links in a north-south direction over the Ōtaki River and through the Kāpiti district. The alternative transport route to and from Wellington requires a significant diversion via the Manawatu Gorge and SH2 through the Wairarapa.

Existing issues

20. Vehicle kilometres travelled in the Wellington Region have shown consistent growth over the last 30-40 years. The Wellington Regional Land Transport Strategy 2010-40 ("RLTS") notes that vehicle kilometres travelled has levelled off in the last 5 years and that this is primarily due to fuel price increases and the economic recession.

21. As noted in the RLTS, across the region, growth of 26 percent in the vehicle- kilometres travelled over the next 30 years is expected. As has been the case over the last 30 years, the number of heavy commercial vehicle ("HCV") trips on SH1 is expected to grow faster than light vehicles.

22. Currently SH1 passes directly through the Ōtaki Railway Retail area. Delays caused by pedestrians crossing and motorists manoeuvring into on-street car parks or side roads slow traffic and make travel times unreliable, particularly during weekends and holiday periods. The current traffic flows in this location are inappropriate for the retail function of the street.

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23. As most local residents and travellers through the area will be aware, Ōtaki traffic congestion can be extreme and travel times variable, especially at the start and end of weekends, and particularly around public holiday weekends. The high traffic flows on the existing SH1 make it difficult and unsafe for all road users including pedestrians, cyclists, equestrians and motorists to join or cross the SH1. This is highlighted by the high proportion (40%) of crashes in the last five years that occurred at SH1 intersections or private access points within the Project area.

24. SH1 also bisects the Te Horo community. Very few pedestrians or cyclists have been observed outside of the Ōtaki urban area. It is believed that the delays and danger associated with crossing rural sections of the existing SH1 deter people from walking or cycling in the area.

Transportation benefits of the Project

25. The Expressway provides an alternative route for inter-regional or inter-district traffic and enables the existing SH1 to function as a local arterial. It also allows inter- regional and inter-district traffic to avoid conflict with populated areas. Traffic flows on the rural sections of the existing SH1 are forecast to reduce by as much as 80% as a result of the Project. Reductions of more than 50% are forecast for the existing SH1 in the Ōtaki Railway Retail area. The reduction in traffic on the existing SH1 will make crossing SH1 easier and improve access and connectivity within the Project area.

26. The Project will have a significantly positive effect on road safety, and result in an approximate 60 percent reduction in annual crash costs within the Project area.

27. Another important benefit of the Project is that, by having the existing SH1 and the Expressway, there are alternative routes in case of natural hazards or road traffic accidents.

28. The Project will also improve the connection between the existing SH1 and local side roads. Significant delays for motorists, pedestrians or cyclists travelling from side- roads such as School Road or Ōtaki Gorge Road are experienced at present and are forecast to deteriorate in future if nothing is done. The future delays are forecast to be of a magnitude that would encourage motorists to change their route (if possible) and/or time of travel, or to take increased risks when joining the existing SH1.

29. The Project significantly reduces the traffic flow on the existing SH1, making it easier and safer to join or cross it. This increases accessibility and is consistent with the principles of an appropriate road hierarchy. I believe this is a significant positive effect of the Project for local residents who will continue to use the existing SH1 once the Expressway is constructed.

30. The Project will in normal circumstances reduce travel times for people travelling past Ōtaki on a typical weekday by almost two minutes, which corresponds to a 10 percent reduction in travel times through the Project area. This will improve the reliability and efficiency of inter-regional freight movements as well as improving access for other motorists to Wellington. Travel times for rail passengers and freight will also be

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reduced as a result of the improved rail re-alignment past the Ōtaki Railway Retail area. Travel time savings and travel time certainty will be even greater during holiday and weekend travel which currently results in significant variability and congestion.

31. The cumulative travel time savings for all users of the Expressway will benefit the national, regional and local economy.

32. The Project also results in the creation of an appropriate arterial road (existing SH1) for the local community as well as reducing the possibility of crashes between motor vehicles and rail by providing grade separated local road connections across the NIMT at five of the eight existing level crossings (including all those on public roads).

Construction traffic

33. The additional traffic associated with construction of the Expressway has the potential to affect operation of the at-grade intersections between the existing SH1 with Ōtaki Gorge Road, Old Hautere Road and School Road. However, there are several ways to avoid or mitigate the safety problems associated with construction traffic. Proposed management plans, including the draft CTMP and associated draft Site-Specific Traffic Management Plans ("SSTMPs"), outline concepts and tools that could be used to avoid or manage effects. The successful contractor will need to provide requisite details to finalise those plans, in collaboration with the road controlling authorities, and demonstrate how effects will be appropriately addressed.

34. With the adoption and implementation of the measures for mitigating transport effects during construction, I believe the effects of construction on the safe and efficient operation of the transport network will be minimal and acceptable.

Project objectives

35. In my view the Project achieves the NZTA's and KiwiRail's objectives for the Project, as relevant to my transportation evidence, including because the Project will:

(a) enhance efficiency and journey time reliability (including providing a high-quality alternative route, thus increasing route security);

(b) significantly enhance safety of travel, including addressing the potential for severe or fatal head-on crashes (currently 14% of crashes over the past 5 years) and reducing annual crash costs by approximately 60 percent;

(d) efficiently serve Ōtaki.

Conclusion

36. The Project is an important part of a wider package of transport improvements being developed under the current Government Policy Statement (2012/13 to 2021/22, the "GPS") to form the Wellington Northern Corridor RoNS. The potential adverse effects of construction traffic can be appropriately managed and, once constructed, the

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Project will bring significant transportation and associated benefits for the Kāpiti district, Wellington region, and the country as a whole, and contribute to a safer, more effective, and more efficient transport network.

EXISTING TRANSPORTATION ENVIRONMENT

Road network

37. SH1 and the NIMT are the backbone of the national transport network. They pass north-south through the Kāpiti district approximately midway between the coast to the west and the hills to the east. Other than these strategic connections there is very limited opportunity for north-south travel within the district.

38. SH1 through this corridor traverses generally flat terrain with five segments including:

(a) north of Ōtaki, including the northbound merge;

(b) within the Ōtaki township;

(d) Te Horo township; and

(e) south of Te Horo township.

39. The existing SH1 and NIMT rail bridges across the Ōtaki River provide the only transport connections across the river between the north and the south of the Project area.1

40. Due to the lack of local roads providing north-south connectivity, and the reliance on one primary river crossing, SH1 effectively functions as a local road for travel within the district as well serving regional and national traffic, including freight. This multi- purpose use reduces the efficiency of SH1 within the Project area.

41. There are also implications in terms of resilience and route security due to the lack of alternative routes. If there is an incident on SH1 resulting in the closure of the existing SH1 Ōtaki river crossing, connections with Wellington would be severed. Given the lack of other north-south roading connections within the Project area, there can be significant delays caused by accidents. If SH1 is closed, the alternative route to Wellington is via the Manawatu Gorge and SH2 through the Wairarapa.

42. Local roads in this part of Kāpiti district branch out east and west from SH1. This results in SH1 providing physical (and perceived) severance of the roading networks between the east and west sides of the district. This results in a significant amount of local traffic having to cross SH1 in an east-west direction, which impedes the SH1 traffic flow and results in busy and unsafe intersections for local traffic to pass through.

1 There is another upstream crossing, the Waiohanga Road Bridge, however this bridge only provides property access from Ōtaki Gorge Road to the north of the Ōtaki River.

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43. The shopping and commercial activities in Ōtaki Railway Retail area also contribute to the existing SH1 traffic environment through Ōtaki. This has created significant conflict between pedestrians, local traffic, visiting shopping traffic and State highway through-traffic in this area. This zone is restricted to 50km in line with these competing uses. Not only has this resulted in slower State highway traffic speeds, but it has led to an unsafe traffic environment in this area (reflected by the crash results discussed below). Physical works such as traffic lights, pedestrian build-outs and central refuges have been installed to improve safety, but there remains a significant level of side friction and pedestrian/vehicle interaction which impedes State highway traffic flow, particularly in weekends and during peak holiday travelling times.

Historic and forecast traffic growth

44. Historic recorded daily traffic flows on SH12 are shown in Figure 1. Although there has been a slight decrease between 2009 and 2012, attributed in the RLTS to rising fuel prices and the economic recession, the medium growth scenario3 is predicting growth in the order of 26 percent for the vehicle kilometres travelled in the region over the next 30 years.

Figure 1: SH1 Ohau Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) 1975 - 2011

45. Historic data for traffic growth and fuel price changes relative to a 1974 base, using information from Ministry for the Environment data sources, can be seen in Figure 2. This data shows that, although changes in fuel prices result in changes in traffic (up or down), the long-term trend displays significant growth in vehicle volumes over time. Based on this historical trend, in my view there is no reason to believe that the RLTS growth predictions will not occur.

2 Based on data from the NZTA's continuous TMS count site located at Ohau, approximately 15km north of Ōtaki on SH1, identified as the nearest continuous count site to display historic trends. 3 The RLTS uses low, medium and high growth scenarios when developing forecasts for the future. These scenarios relate to the potential growth in population and employment in the region.

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Figure 2: Traffic Volumes and Fuel Prices

TRAFFIC VOLUMES & FUEL PRICES

2.400

2.200

2.000

1.800

1.600

1.400

1.200 Change Relative to 1974 =1.000 1974 to ChangeRelative 1.000

0.800 Fuel Price (Real) Traffic

0.600

2003 2009 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 4 Year

Traffic crash history

46. As described in the Integrated Transport Assessment4, the recorded crash history on SH1 was researched using the NZTA's Crash Analysis System ("CAS"). Analysis of the 5 year crash records was grouped based on the speed environment, which included:

(a) the 50 km/h section of Ōtaki Township (1.6 km);

(b) the 70 km/h section of Ōtaki Township (0.8 km); and

(c) the 100 km/h section south of Ōtaki Township to Peka Peka5 (9.3 km) and north of Ōtaki Township to north of Taylors Road (1.5 km).

47. The analysis shows that:

(a) there have been over 3 times more crashes per kilometre in the 50 km/h speed zone (Ōtaki Railway Retail area) than the 70km/h or 100 km/h zones;

(b) the crashes in the Ōtaki Railway Retail area are generally lower severity, which is expected given the lower speeds (primarily rear end/obstruction);

(c) in the 100 km/h speed zone 30 percent of the crashes occurred at intersections and another 10 percent occurred at driveways; and

(d) 14 percent of the 100 km/h crashes were head-on.

48. Over the five year period assessed as part of the Integrated Transport Assessment (2007-11) there were two fatal crashes, both of which occurred in 2009, 12 serious

4 Section 2.10.1 Crash History - Page 36. 5 The 1km long 80km/h speed zone through Te Horo has been included as part of the 100km/h speed environment for this analysis.

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injury crashes, 36 minor crashes and 114 non-injury crashes. The five year crash history is summarised in Table 1.

Table 1: Crash History by Year Non- Year Fatal Serious Minor Injury Total 2007 0 3 6 13 22 2008 0 4 4 27 35 2009 26 2 8 25 37 2010 0 2 12 29 43 2011 0 1 6 20 27 Total 2 12 36 114 164

49. One of the fatal crashes was the result of a cyclist being hit, with alcohol most likely being a factor. The second fatal crash in 2009 was a head-on crash on a straight section of road, which occurred during bright and dry conditions. Provision of an Expressway with a median barrier would eliminate or significantly reduce the risk of these crashes.

50. In addition to the 2007-2011 data, I have also reviewed the 2012 data to assess trends. In 2012 there was 1 fatal crash, 3 serious injury crashes, 8 minor injury crashes, and 36 non-injury crashes. The fatal crash involved a loss of control where a vehicle failed to keep left on a straight. This data shows an increase in fatal, serious and total crash numbers on SH1 within the Project area, despite relatively little change in traffic volumes.

51. The poor crash history south of the Project has resulted in a number of safety improvements being implemented which have improved the crash history, while this section of SH1 remains a significant concern for the NZTA and the travelling public.

Pedestrian and cycle network

52. The Ōtaki urban area and local schools generate walking and cycling in these immediate areas.

53. Formal provision for non-motorised road users is most evident within Ōtaki, where pedestrian footways within the SH1 corridor exist. Pedestrian build-outs and central refuges and a signalised crossing are provided within the Ōtaki Railway Retail area, to make it easier and safer to cross the existing SH1.

54. Cycle lanes are provided in each direction along Mill Road between Ōtaki town and the Ōtaki Railway Retail area.

55. Outside Ōtaki, in the rural parts of the Project area, there is less demand and therefore less provision for non-motorised road users. A footway is provided on the

6 One of these fatal crashes occurred near the tie-in between the Project and the MacKays to Peka Peka expressway.

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southern side of School Road in Te Horo. There are no specific cycle facilities along SH1.

56. The Proporsed District Plan Transport Network Hierarchy 2012 displays how walking and cycling facilities integrate with other transport facilities (as attached in Annexure A7). The network identifies the Ōtaki River walkway as well as community connector routes that link to SH1. These connector routes are required to provide for all modes, which includes cycling and walking.

57. Surveys of pedestrian and cycle movements were undertaken on 21 and 22 July 2010. A total of 365 pedestrians were observed within the Project area, 97 percent within the 50km/h speed zone of Ōtaki (from south of Waerenga Road to north of Waitohu Valley Road). The remaining 3 percent of pedestrians were observed at School Road (Te Horo) and Old Hautere Road. No cyclists were observed. It is important to note, however, that survey results can be influenced by poor weather conditions and weather conditions were damp during the survey period and numbers could be higher in summer months when the weather is better and it is brighter in the mornings and evenings.8

58. The low number of pedestrians and cyclists observed outside Ōtaki is not surprising given the volume and speed of traffic using the existing SH1, the distances between potential destinations and the absence of formal pedestrian and cyclist facilities outside of Ōtaki. SH1 in the Project area is generally perceived to be a hazardous and intimidating environment for cyclists and pedestrians, because of the lack of specific pedestrian and cycle facilities and the heavy traffic flows.

59. Future pedestrian and cycle demand is influenced by the level of activity in an area and by proximity to other areas of activity. Outside Ōtaki, no significant population growth is expected, in line with the Greater Ōtaki Vision and the rural zoning in the district plan, discussed further in the evidence of Mr Coop. Unless the SH1 travelling environment (along and across the corridor) is changed, or attitudes or behaviours in relation to walking or cycling change, the numbers of pedestrians and cyclists are not expected to increase materially.

Public transport

60. There are currently two public transport routes serving the Ōtaki area:

(a) Bus route 290 (five services a day in each direction), which provides access to regular rail services at the Waikanae Railway Station; and

7 I acknowledge that the images included in Annexure A are of poor quality and note that the originals are available to view at http://www.kapiticoast.govt.nz/Documents/Downloads/District-Plan-Review/Proposed-District-Plan/Vol3- Maps/Transport_Hierarchy.pdf 8 In addition to the 2010 surveys, I have spent large amounts of time on site and have very rarely seen pedestrians or cyclists outside the Ōtaki Railway Retail area. The most frequently observed pedestrian movements outside of that area are at Te Horo, involving movements to and from cars parked on the east side, accessing facilities on the west side. This activity was not picked up by the survey due to it occurring away from intersections at locations associated with land use attractions.

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(b) the Ōtaki Railway station, which accommodates a service with limited stops between Palmerston North and Wellington in the morning, with a return service in the evening.

61. In addition, the following public transport services service the Ōtaki community and Project area:

(a) the 'Kāpiti line' rail service, which functions as a rail commuter service between Waikanae (and Paraparaumu) and Wellington for residents in the Project area;

(b) a number of longer-distance bus services to other centres in the North Island stop at Ōtaki; and

62. The local public transport network is shown on the diagram appended to my evidence as Annexure B.

Future transport network plans

63. Changes to the transport network that have been planned, or are likely irrespective of the Project, have been included in the transport modelling of future years. This is standard transport modelling practice and I believe it to be appropriate for a project of this nature. When describing transport modelling scenarios the following terms have been used:

(a) "base" – the year in which the model was built for, this is 2011 for both the WTSM and KTM SATURN models.

(b) "do minimum" – this is the assumed transport network, land use and population predicted for certain dates in the future (2021 and 2031 for this assessment), excluding the Project.

(c) "Project" – consistent with the do minimum, with the inclusion of the Project and any other related network modifications.

64. Future projects are summarised in Table 2. These projects are included in WTSM model (see below).10

Table 2: Roads of National Significance (RoNS) Projects in the Do Minimum

RoNS Traffic Scheme 2021 2031 Ōtaki to north of Levin   Peka Peka to Ōtaki (PP2O)   MacKays to Peka Peka (M2PP)   Linden to MacKays (Transmission Gully) 11 

9 Ōtaki College; Ōtaki School; St Peter Chanel School; Te Horo School; Te Kura-a-iwi o Whakatupuranga Rua Mano; Te Kura Kaupapa Māori o Te Rito; and Waitohu School. 10 The only Kāpiti project included in the SATURN modelling (see below) is MacKays to Peka Peka, as this is the only other project falling within the confines of the model. 11 The Transmission Gully project is currently being progressed as a PPP and this has bought the programme forward meaning that it is now planned to be operational by 2021. Additional modelling has not been undertaken for this year as 2031 forms the main assessment year for the project.

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Ngauranga to Aotea Quay (NtAQ)   Terrace Tunnel Duplication   Basin Reserve   Airport to Mt Victoria Tunnel   Other 2021 2031 Petone to Grenada Link Road   A tick indicates project completion; a cross indicates that the project is not yet constructed.

65. Including the other RoNS projects in the do minimum removes pinch points on the wider network and contributes to the Northern Wellington Corridor improvements. This results in more traffic being able to reach the Project area.

PROJECT FORM AND ALIGNMENT

66. The Wellington Northern Corridor RoNS runs from Wellington International Airport to Levin. The Project will form one of eight sections of the corridor. The Project extends between Te Kowhai Road in the south to Taylors Road just north of Ōtaki, an approximate length of 13km.

67. The Expressway will provide two lanes in each direction, with connections to existing local roads, new local roads, and access points over its length. The Project will also see an additional crossing (2 bridges, 1 in each direction) over the Ōtaki River. There are crossings of other watercourses throughout the Project length as well.

68. The NIMT railway will be re-aligned as part of the Project. Although the realignment is required to facilitate the Expressway, the realignment of the railway will yield safety and operational benefits for the railway through improved geometry and the removal of the Rahui Road at-grade crossing which is currently located on a curve to the north of the Ōtaki Railway Station.

69. Near Mary Crest a new section of SH1 will be constructed on the western side of the Expressway. This is required to facilitate the Expressway (which will be built on top of the existing SH1). The new road will act as the local road connecting the existing SH1 south of the Project area and SH1 to the north of Mary Crest.

70. The form and spacing of the different interchanges along the length of the Expressway is shown in Figure 3.

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Figure 3: Schematic of the Expressway and Interchanges

TRANSPORTATION ASSESSMENT AND MODELLING METHODOLOGY

Assessment methodology

71. The assessment methodology utilised for my evidence is set out in the Integrated Transport Assessment.12 That assessment was prepared in accordance with industry best practice guidelines and considers the following key matters:

(a) how the Project meets general and specific transport planning and policy objectives including the specific Project objectives;

(b) the opportunities provided by the Project in contributing to the development of the future transport network; and

12 Section 3 of the Integrated Transport Assessment.

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(c) the effects of the operation of the Project on the existing and future transport network, together with the nature and scale of any changes to the transport network required to mitigate these effects.

72. The Project objectives relevant to transport are:

(a) to enhance inter-regional and national economic growth and productivity;

(b) to enhance efficiency and journey time reliability from, to and through the Kāpiti district, Wellington’s central business district, key industrial and employment centres, the port, airport and hospital;

(d) to appropriately balance the competing functional performance requirements of inter-regional and local traffic movements, and to facilitate others to provide modal choice opportunities, to enable local facilities and amenities in the Kāpiti district to be efficiently accessed;

by developing and constructing a cost-optimised new State highway to expressway standards between Peka Peka and north of Ōtaki, to:

(e) manage the immediate and long-term social, cultural, land use and other environmental effects of the Project on the Kāpiti district and its communities by, so far as reasonably practicable, avoiding, remedying or mitigating any adverse effects through route and alignment selection, Expressway design and conditions;

(f) integrate the Expressway into the form of Kāpiti district by taking into account current and planned future land use and development in route and alignment selection, Expressway design and conditions;

(g) work with KiwiRail to achieve an integrated design for both the new Expressway and a realigned main trunk railway; and

(h) efficiently serve Ōtaki and its future development by providing appropriate vehicle access and signage to and from the Expressway.

73. The KiwiRail objectives relevant to transport are:

(a) to establish and maintain safe and efficient rail passenger transport services within the region by providing rail infrastructure and services;

(b) to foster economic development and provide for the development of safe public transport services;

(d) to achieve a connected and integrated transport network.

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74. The assessment of transportation effects, and how the Project performs against these objectives, is described later in my evidence.

Modelling methodology

75. Detailed modelling was undertaken to inform the assessment of the effects of the Project on the transport environment, and the assessment against general and specific objectives and policies. In this section of my evidence I describe that modelling.

76. The scale of the Project requires assessment of the long-term, multi-modal effects over the wider RoNS corridor, assessment of traffic effects on the local network and detailed operational and design issues for specific intersections proposed as part of the Project.

77. There is no single model available to assess the full variety of relevant considerations, from strategic demand of a wider region to detailed local intersection effects. The use of a hierarchy of models is therefore accepted as best industry practice, both nationally and internationally. Examples of where this method has been adopted include both the MacKays to Peka Peka expressway and Transmission Gully sections of the Wellington RoNS corridor.

78. The hierarchy of models used includes three key components, which are shown in Figure 4 below. Those components are the WTSM, the project assignment model (KTM2.1 SATURN model) and an intersection assessment model ("SIDRA"). Each of these models is described below in more detail.

Figure 4: Adopted Hierarchical Model Structure

WTSM (EMME/2) Wellington Region

Increased Level of Detail Larger Model Area

SATURN Kāpiti Traffic Model (KTM2.1)

SIDRA assesses individual intersections

79. At the top of the model hierarchy is the WTSM, which is a multi-modal transportation model built and operated by GWRC. The WTSM model uses land use data and calibrated trip behaviour models to estimate the number of trips made by mode (private vehicle, public transport or cycling/walking), origin and destination, and time of day. It covers the greater Wellington region and has the most sophisticated components for predicting when and how people travel, but it has the lowest level of detail in terms of representing traffic issues on local roads.

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80. The key inputs to the WTSM model are the predicted future year land use patterns (such as the location and type of households, jobs and education facilities), economic variables (such as fuel and parking costs), and assumptions about future improvements to the transport system. The outputs from the WTSM model are the predicted numbers of trips by mode, origin and destination, and time of day.

81. The WTSM regional model was originally developed and calibrated to 2001 data and conditions, but was later comprehensively updated to use year 2006 census and land use data. The MacKays to Peka Peka expressway project used this 2006 WTSM updated model. In 2011, another update was commissioned and completed in 2012. This update differed from the previous one because there was no census data available.13 The 2011 update relied heavily on surveyed travel data and estimated land use. The Project transportation assessment has used the 2011 WTSM model.

82. The second level of modelling involves the project traffic assignment model, which covers the Kāpiti Coast study area but only considers travel in motor vehicles (cars and trucks). Because WTSM has a coarse zone makeup in the Kāpiti area, it is unlikely that it was reflecting trips to and from relevant destinations in the region, such as the Riverbank developments in Ōtaki. Specific adjustments were therefore made to the KTM2.1 model,14 which was the case for the M2PP expressway model also.

83. The KTM2.1 traffic assignment model represents the road network within the Kāpiti Coast study area in significantly greater detail than the WTSM model, including detailed assessment of intersection delays. This model was used to test various future year do minimum and other options, allowing the investigation of traffic effects at a more detailed and precise level than what was possible in the WTSM model.

84. The KTM2.1 model does not estimate the number of vehicle trips itself, rather it takes the vehicle trips estimated by the WTSM model and refines them for use at a greater level of detail. This model utilises the SATURN traffic modelling software (which is commonly used in New Zealand and internationally for this kind of project) and is an updated version of the Kāpiti Traffic Model ("KTM2") which was used for the MacKays to Peka Peka expressway project.

85. A number of isolated intersections were also assessed using the SIDRA software to check operational performance and refine design parameters, however the main operational model used was the KTM2.1.

86. A future 2031 model year has been used for assessment purposes. The assessment year is approximately 10 years after the Project becoming operational.

87. Weekends and holidays are not explicitly modelled; however the effects during those periods are represented through the annualisation process that converts the weekday model outputs to annual results.

13 Postponed due to the Christchurch earthquakes. 14 These specific adjustments are outlined in the KTM2.1 forecasting summary of impacts memorandum which is included in Appendix C of the Integrated Transport Assessment.

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88. All three levels of model represent cars and trucks separately, so separate assessment of those two broad categories can be used where necessary.

89. Scenarios were created both 'with' and 'without' the Project. The expected effects on the transport system were then assessed in the following manner:

(a) the expected effects on public transport demand can be assessed directly in the multi-modal WTSM model, although for the Project it was not completed because of the limited provision of public transport services and the low numbers of users;

(b) traffic diversion (changes in roads used) on the local Kāpiti network was assessed using the KTM2.1 model;

(d) delays and queues at new interchanges were assessed in operational SIDRA models; and

(e) 'induced traffic' (being changes in the number and pattern of car trips at an origin-to-destination level) was assessed by comparing the do minimum and option matrices. The comparison showed about a 1% increase – ie the results were that the trips people make, and the way people travel, in terms of 'induced traffic', will be largely unchanged as a result of the Project.

90. Using this hierarchical assessment approach, the existing and future transport environment has been considered, both within the Project area and across the wider region, where appropriate. This enables both the positive and adverse effects of the Project to be assessed in the context of this transport environment.

91. The KTM2.1 traffic model used in the Integrated Transport Assessment was calibrated and validated by Beca Consultants and subject to an independent peer review by Sinclair Knight Merz Ltd. Similarly, the WTSM model was subject to an independent peer review by Steer Davies Gleave (London) when it was first developed in 2002 and as part of the 2011 update it was reviewed by John Bolland. In my opinion these modelling tools are appropriate for the purposes of transport assessment of the Project.

Existing and future traffic demand

92. Existing and future do minimum traffic volumes on SH1 are illustrated in Figure 5. In summary the forecast traffic volume increase between 2011 and 2031 is as follows:

(a) north of Ōtaki there is a 3,100 vehicle-per-day ("vpd") increase (26%);

(b) through the Ōtaki Railway Retail area there is a 3,800 vpd increase (30%);

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(d) north of Peka Peka Road there is a 5,600 vpd increase (35%).

Modelling methodology – sensitivity tests

93. Traffic forecasting is subject to uncertainty, especially in terms of key inputs such as growth predictions and assumed future network changes. A series of sensitivity tests were undertaken to identify sensitivity to such key inputs and assumptions. These included:

(a) the traffic routing effect of reducing the rural speed limit on the existing SH1 from 100km/h to 80km/h; and

(b) the sensitivity of the traffic flows to the high growth scenario.

94. The sensitivity tests undertaken are explained in further detail in Annexure C to my evidence.

OPERATIONAL EFFECTS OF THE PROJECT

95. The details of the Project are set out in Part D of the AEE. As summarised in the AEE, the Project includes the following principal design features:

(a) a four-lane median-divided expressway (two traffic lanes in each direction);

(b) a half-interchange north of Ōtaki;

(d) two two-lane bridges over the Ōtaki River;

(e) one two-lane bridge over the Waitohu Stream;

(f) grade-separated overbridges to cross some local roads, watercourses, the NIMT and the Expressway;

(g) a new section of local arterial road near Mary Crest;

(h) a realignment of approximately 1.2 km of the NIMT through Ōtaki;

(i) the grade separation or closure of five of the eight local road crossings of the NIMT line; and

(j) stormwater treatment and attenuation facilities including swales, along the majority of the length of the route.

96. The existing section of SH1 within the Project area would likely become a local arterial road (subject to the Chief Executive at Ministry of Transport revoking its current State highway status). The existing SH1 speed limit has been maintained at 100km/h for the transport assessment of the Project. There is, however, the opportunity that the speed could be reduced to 80km/h once the Expressway has been constructed.

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Traffic reassignment

97. WTSM origin-destination matrices have been used to assess whether the Project causes any traffic to re-route (or 'reassign'). The Integrated Transport Assessment found that the Project causes very little reassignment. This is not surprising given that SH1 on this north / south route provides the sole Ōtaki River crossing in the area, and it services both State highway and local traffic.

98. It is also of note that the WTSM matrices have not been adjusted to reflect changes in the behaviour of those that will continue to stop in Ōtaki to shop at the Ōtaki Railway Retail area should the Expressway be constructed. An inception survey15 was completed in March 2011 and found 89.1% of those that had stopped at (and were surveyed in) Ōtaki would continue to do so. Given this survey information, the number of trips on the Expressway past Ōtaki is likely to be slightly over-estimated and the number through Ōtaki under-estimated. In my opinion this inaccuracy has a negligible effect on the traffic flow forecasts through the area.

Traffic flow forecasts

99. The most significant effect of the Project on traffic flow and operations is to divert a significant traffic volume from the existing SH1 corridor onto the Expressway. The modelled traffic volumes are shown in Figure 5 below. In summary, the daily changes on the existing SH1 in 2031 between the do minimum scenario and the 'option' scenario (where users have the option of using the Expressway or existing SH1) are:

(a) north of Ōtaki 15,000 vpd (little or no change);

(b) Railway Retail Area 6,900 vpd (58% reduction); and

100. All other north / south traffic demand will use the Expressway, with 17,100 vpd using the Expressway south of Ōtaki and 9,500 vpd using the Expressway bypassing Ōtaki (between the Ōtaki north and south interchange locations).

15 Ōtaki Customer Survey: Pedestrian Intercept Surveys, Opus Central Laboratories, March 2011

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Figure 5: 2011 Base, 2031 Do Minimum and Option AADTs16

101. The percentage of traffic made up of HCVs in the 2011 base year modelling is between 12 and 14%. In the 2031 assessment year there is little change between the do minimum and 'option' scenarios, with the percentages in HCVs ranging between 17 and 28%. This is a significant increase which is consistent with projections out of WTSM. All HCV movements will benefit as a result of the Project, and it is envisaged that the majority of HCV movements will bypass Ōtaki unless they have an origin or destination locally.

102. The Project will result in reduction of approximately 42% in HCVs in the Ōtaki Railway Retail area, while Te Horo will see a reduction of approximately 89% in the forecast 2031 year.

103. These very substantial reductions in traffic flows will significantly reduce delays and queues, both on the existing SH1 route itself (especially through Ōtaki) and for vehicles trying to turn onto or from the existing SH1. This reduced traffic flow through

16 AADT calculated by factoring AM, IP, PM traffic flows for light and heavy vehicles. Light vehicles 2xAM + 10xIP + 2xPM. HCVs 2xAM + 14xIP + 2xPM.

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the Ōtaki Railway Retail area will improve the amenity of the area significantly. The current traffic flows in this area are inappropriate for its local access and retail functions.

Travel time forecasts

104. Overall, it is forecast that there will be a reduction in travel times as a result of the Expressway being constructed. Travel time savings of up to 1 minute and 48 seconds are forecast in 2031, which has been calculated for vehicles travelling along the whole length of the Expressway. This reduction is primarily due to bypassing Ōtaki.

105. Journeys from Te Horo to north of Ōtaki would also experience a similar journey time to that which currently exists due to the additional roundabout at Ōtaki Gorge Road being counteracted by the reduced traffic volumes. Table 3 shows the PM peak travel time for the major links along the Expressway and the existing SH1 arterial in the 2011 base, 2031 do minimum and 2031 option.

Table 3: PM Peak Travel Times

2031 Change 2011 2031 Travel Time Route Direction Do (Option – Base Option Min Do Min) (1) Expressway north NB17 9:02 9:17 7:29 -1:48 of Ōtaki (Taylors Rd) to Peka Peka SB 9:00 9:12 7:28 -1:44 Interchange (2) Te Horo (School NB 6:14 6:01 5:33 -0:28 Rd) to Peka Peka Rd SB 6:13 6:06 6:13 +0.07 (3) Te Horo (School NB 4:03 3:58 4:07 +0:09 Rd) to Arthur St in Ōtaki SB 4:04 4:06 4:05 -0:01

106. Travel times for those users of the existing SH1 between Peka Peka and Te Horo will remain largely the same as they are now; however they will find it much faster and safer to get to or from what will be the local arterial due to significantly lower traffic volumes. Once the MacKays to Peka Peka project is built, these road users will have the choice of using the Expressway south of Peka Peka. Once this Project is built, however, it will limit this movement and will require users to travel on the existing SH1 as they do currently, albeit with much lower traffic volumes and reduced congestion.

107. The most common journeys with an origin or destination in Te Horo are to and from Waikanae and Ōtaki. Travel time for these journeys will remain relatively unchanged as a result of the Project.

108. Anyone who travels to and through Ōtaki outside of typical weekday periods will understand the variability and delay associated with weekends and holiday periods in a northbound direction during the Friday evening peak and, more significantly, in the southbound direction on Sunday afternoon or the last day of holiday weekends. The

17 Northbound.

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impact of the shopping activity, parking and pedestrian movements in Ōtaki will be eliminated for all through vehicle movements following the construction of the Project.

Travel time reliability

109. Travel time variability or reliability is measured and described in terms of a level of service ("LOS"). The target LOS for the Expressway is 'B', which is defined in Austroads18 as:

"In the zone of stable flow where drivers still have reasonable freedom to select their desired speed and to manoeuvre within the traffic stream. The general level of comfort and convenience is a little less than with level of service A."

110. The next level down, LOS C, was deemed to be inappropriate for a rural expressway, defined as:

"Also in the zone of stable flow, but most drivers are restricted to some extent in their freedom to select their desired speed and to manoeuvre within the traffic stream. The general level of comfort and convenience declines noticeably at this level."

111. Table 4.4 from Austroads18 defines the maximum service flow rate (passenger cars per hour per lane) for LOS B as 1100 for a 100km/h road.

112. An analysis of the variability of traffic flows at the NZTA traffic count station at Mary Crest applied19 to 2031 flows on the Expressway indicates that if only one lane in each direction was provided on the Expressway, then LOS B would be exceeded approximately 58% of the time in a northbound direction and 50% of the time in a southbound direction. As such, two lanes are required to provide a LOS B with the forecast flow variability.

113. Journey time variability is commonly experienced by motorists travelling through Ōtaki and the Ōtaki Railway Retail area. With the Expressway, through-traffic motorists will be able to bypass this area, improving travel time reliability. There will also be improved performance of the existing SH1 due to the reduction in traffic using it (as discussed above).

114. These improvements in journey time reliability also benefit HCVs and the movement of freight. The Ōtaki bypass also means that HCVs do not need to accelerate or decelerate for intersections or when travelling through the Ōtaki urban area, which will improve their operating efficiency and reduce operating costs.

115. Although the Expressway will reduce journey times and improve reliability, outside of the Project area to the north, where the State highway reduces to a single lane in the northbound direction, there is the potential for journey time variability to occur,

18 Guide to Traffic Management Part 3: Traffic Studies and Analysis, 2013, section 3.2.2, page 30. 19 Hourly count data from the NZTA Marycrest Site was analysed for the period 01 January 2011 – 31 December 2012 and was factored up by (a) the difference between the predicted 2031 Expressway flows (17,100) and the base 2011 SH1 flows (14,700) and (b) the conversion to passenger car units (i.e. one HCV = 2 passenger car units) based on the expected proportions in 2031 on the expressway (3,900 HCV / 13,200 Light vehicles).

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particularly on holiday weekends. This journey time variability will largely depend upon the travel patterns of motorists leaving Wellington (e.g. Friday night) and the timeframe between this Project being completed and the 4-laning of the subsequent section of SH1 to the north of Ōtaki.

116. A number of tests have been undertaken to look at the LOS experienced as a result of the merge from two northbound lanes of the Expressway down to one, north of the Project area. An initial assessment undertaken during peak weekend and holiday periods, documented in the Integrated Transport Assessment, shows that a LOS D20 may be experienced 2 or 3 times a year. This LOS is based on the performance of the merge itself and is considered to be an acceptable LOS, given the frequency in which it may occur and the long term plans to eliminate this merge north of Ōtaki through the creation of 2 northbound lanes.

117. Further assessment has been undertaken subsequent to the Integrated Transport Assessment on the capacity of the single lane north of the Project to cope with the forecast peak weekend and holiday traffic. The assessment used two different methods21 to compare the downstream single lane LOS, using predicted weekend and holiday peak traffic volumes in 2031. Both methodologies gave very similar results. The analysis showed that the single downstream lane can be expected to have a LOS D approximately 40 days per year (mainly on Friday afternoons-evenings) and LOS E22 once a year. Again, LOS D is considered to be an acceptable LOS given the frequency in which it may occur and the long term plans to create two northbound lanes.

118. In 2031, when a LOS E is expected to occur approximately once a year, the maximum queue is expected to be less than 60 vehicles (or around 21 seconds per vehicle).

119. It should be understood that the assessment carried out for the merge and the associated downstream capacity will significantly improve the existing situation and result in a much safer environment should a flow breakdown occur as a result of downstream capacity constraints. The Project will also have the ability to install CCTV cameras and traffic detection/counting equipment which will ensure road users are informed of conditions.

20 LOS D for downstream capacity is defined as "Speeds begin to decline with increasing flows. Ability to manoeuvre within the traffic stream is seriously limited". (Table 6-2 of the Integrated Transport Assessment (original source HCM)). 21 HCM and NAASRA. 22 LOS E is defined as “Operation is at capacity. Operations are highly volatile with little room to manoeuvre within the traffic stream”. (Table 6-2 of the Integrated Transport Assessment (original source HCM)).

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Expressway and local traffic connectivity

120. The Project will significantly reduce the volume of traffic on the existing SH1 (see Figure 5), which will improve the performance of the existing intersections along this corridor. This will improve local connectivity and reduce delay in the area, as demonstrated in Table 4 below:

Table 4: Existing SH1 Intersection Delay (average delay) AM PM Intersection 2031 2031 2031 Do 2031 Do Min Option Min Option Rahui Road 7 sec 7 sec 6 sec 6 sec River Bank Road 200 sec 36 sec 214 sec 14 sec Ōtaki Gorge Road 7 sec 16 sec23 3 sec 15 sec23 Te Horo Beach 6 sec 12 sec24 5 sec 11 sec24 Road School Road 85 sec 5 sec 64 sec 4 sec

121. Table 4 shows the average delay for the entire intersection during both the AM and PM peak periods for key intersections affected by the Project. This gives an indication of their overall performance projected for the future with and without the Project.

122. The results demonstrate that all intersections will operate with significantly less variability, a good LOS and capacity for road users. In particular this will improve connectivity and accessibility as well as safety. This is particularly important for intersections with a high number of school students (Rahui and School Roads) or HCV movements (River Bank Road).

123. It is also proposed that where the Expressway severs links between the local road and existing SH1 (Rahui Road, Ōtaki Gorge Road, and School Road) an underpass is provided to maintain and enhance cross corridor connections.

124. The Project will also create a new local arterial between Peka Peka Road and Mary Crest which will significantly improve access for those using Te Kowhai Road and Te Hapua Road.

125. The combined effect of the reduction of traffic on the existing SH1, and the underpass connections over the Expressway, is that connectivity will be improved both in terms of efficiency and safety (as discussed further below). Existing issues relating to the safety of accessing the State highway or the uncertainty around traffic conditions currently influences some residents' ability to access the roading network; this highlights the existing problem and the benefits the Expressway will provide for the community and road users as they can move freely to and from the existing SH1.

Route security and resilience

126. As already stated, there is only one north-south traffic route through the Kāpiti district and the Project area. The Project will create a second north-south route (and crossing

23 This relates to the impact of Old Hautere Road and the existing SH1 being priority controlled. 24 This relates to all existing School Road Traffic also using this intersection.

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of the Ōtaki River) within the Project area (and through the district when combined with the other projects forming the Wellington Northern Corridor RoNS). The Project will provide an alternative route should there be an incident (such as a natural hazard or road accident) which results in the closure of either the existing SH1 or the Expressway.

127. In the last few years there have been several instances where SH1 has been partially or completely closed within the Project area. The lack of an alternative route has meant that SH1 into Wellington has had poor route security. The provision of the Expressway as an alternative route will enhance the security of the movement of people and freight, as well as emergency services, through the Project area, Kāpiti district and into (or out of) Wellington.

128. The Expressway is designed to a higher engineering standard than the existing SH1 making it less susceptible to natural disasters. This is discussed further in the evidence of Mr Coulman, Dr Grant Webby and Mr Pathmanathan Brabhaharan.

129. This higher design standard and the fact that an alternative route exists will significantly improve the security and resilience of SH1 through the Project area, Kāpiti district and into (or out of) Wellington. Currently if there is a crash or incident on SH1 between certain sections (e.g. Ōtaki River Bridge) there are no alternatives and traffic would need to divert via the Manawatu Gorge and SH2 through the Wairarapa, resulting in significant cost, delay, and disruption. Although the existing SH1 and the Expressway are close to one another, the provision of a second link provides significantly more route security and network resilience.

Road safety effects

130. As identified earlier, the existing SH1 has a poor safety record and as a result has a high risk rating under the standard "KiwiRAP" rating system. The Expressway will improve the KiwiRAP risk rating from a two or three to a four in the future (five being the lowest-risk road).

131. The Project will significantly reduce the crash risk in the Project area, for a number of reasons:

(a) it will divert a significant volume of traffic from the existing SH1 route onto the higher-standard Expressway with its improved lane and shoulder provisions, improved geometry, central median barrier and grade-separated intersections;

(b) it will separate 'local' and 'through' traffic in the urban area of Ōtaki;

(d) it will reduce queuing and hence rear-end crashes;

(e) it will reduce delays to vehicles trying to access the existing SH1 from local roads, at controlled intersections; and

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(f) it will provide an improved environment for pedestrians, cyclists and equestrians, through the reduction of traffic on the existing SH1.

132. Overall, the Project will address the predominant crash types in the Project area, resulting in a significant reduction in the risk and severity of crashes; a 60% reduction in crash cost has been predicted as a result of the Project.

133. The higher predicted average speeds of traffic on the Expressway could increase the severity of some crashes. However, this risk is substantially mitigated by the central median barrier, improved geometry, roadside clear zones, and grade-separated intersections. There is also the possibility that speeds may increase on the existing SH1 due to lower traffic volumes, however this can be managed through enforcement (as with any other rural arterial) and improvements that may come out of the State highway revocation process (discussed further in the evidence of Mr Blackmore).

134. Grade-separated local road connections across the NIMT will be provided at five of the eight existing level crossings. All level crossings on public roads will be removed as part of the Project. The provision of grade-separated crossings will avoid the risk of train/traffic accidents at these locations. This is considered to be significant safety improvement as a result of the Project and will benefit road users (cars, HCVs, cyclists and pedestrians) and rail operations.

Effects on public transport users

135. In general the Project will have a positive effect on public transport users, because:

(a) the Ōtaki Railway Station will be shifted slightly, but this will not affect access to the station or affect the station's operation; and

(b) access to existing park and ride facilities at Ōtaki and/or Waikanae stations will be improved for local residents.

136. The Expressway will have a minimal effect on school bus routes, as most of the existing local road to State highway connections will be maintained. The connection at Old Hautere Road will be closed off and redirected to Ōtaki Gorge Road, resulting in slightly longer travel length for school bus routes which currently use this connection. However, access to and from the existing SH1 will be improved and become much safer as a result of the lower traffic volumes caused by the Expressway.

Effects on pedestrians, cyclists, and equestrians

137. Walking and cycling facilities have been provided on the following new bridges associated with the Project:

(a) Bridge 2 and 3 (North Ōtaki bridge) – 2.5m and 1.5m footpaths on either side;

(b) Bridge 4 (Rahui Road) – 2.5m and 2m footpaths on either side;

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(d) Bridge 8 (Te Horo) – 2.5m footpath on one side only.

138. There have been discussions with KCDC about locations in which equestrians could use bridges, and those linking Ōtaki Gorge Road and School Road were identified as the most important locations in which use is possible. It was discussed that all those facilities identified above could accommodate equestrian users, either on the shoulders of the bridge or allowing for riders to dismount and walk over the bridge on the footpath.

139. In my opinion the construction of the Expressway will create a more attractive existing SH1 route for pedestrians, cyclists and equestrians, both along the existing corridor and connecting between different parts of the local community as a result of underpasses with facilities over the Expressway and NIMT.

140. Although the Project will not reduce the speed of the existing SH1, there is an opportunity to do so as part of the revocation process. A reduction in speed along this route would further improve the safety and amenity for non-motorised users. There is also the potential for cycle and pedestrian facilities on the existing SH1 to be enhanced through the revocation process (depending on various factors, as discussed in the evidence of Mr Blackmore).

Property access effects

141. The property accesses affected by the proposal (once operational) have been assessed and are described in the Integrated Transport Assessment.25

142. The creation of a new local road to the west of the Expressway between Peka Peka Road and Mary Crest will provide private property access as well as access for Te Kowhai and Te Hapua Roads. This access and intersection operation will be a significant improvement from the current situation, in terms of safety and efficiency.

143. For properties to the east of the Expressway in this area, there will be additional travelling distance, although this will be minimal for the northbound motorists. For southbound motorists the travelling distance could be increased by up to 2.8 km.26 Access to the existing SH1 will be greatly improved and help to offset this increase.

144. A new local access road is provided adjacent to the Expressway between Gear Road and School Road. For motorists heading north there is minimal change in the distance to travel. For those heading to or coming from the south, the journey length is increased by approximately 1.5 km. The number of motorists expected to be affected is approximately 200 in the morning and evening peak. These motorists will need to travel to the local road bridge at Te Horo Beach Road before doubling back to access either Gear or School Roads. Although there is a small increase in distance, the improved safety and reduced delay associated with accessing the existing SH1 will significantly improve accessibility for these residents.

25 Section 11, page 97. 26 Motorists wishing to travel south from the property located at 564 SH1 (opposite Te Hapua Road).

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145. Between Ōtaki Gorge Road and Old Hautere Road, another new access road parallel to the Expressway is provided. Similarly there will be minimal change for motorists heading to the north. The distance required to travel to the south from Old Hautere Road will increase by about 2.5 km.27 As with Gear and School Roads there is an increase in distance, however the improved safety and reduced delay associated with accessing the existing SH1 and the Expressway will significantly improve accessibility for these residents.

146. A new road is also planned between Te Horo and Old Hautere Road to provide access to about 5 additional properties.

147. Overall, while there would be extra travel time and distance for a limited number of properties, this would be off-set by significantly improved (ie less congested and safer) access onto SH1 to head south.

148. In summary, the effects on property access are as follows:

(a) Locations where property access is severed or otherwise directly affected have been identified and addressed (or will be addressed, as discussed in Mr Coulman's evidence) so that access is provided.

(b) Mitigation is in the form of new access roads. For some movements from some properties, these modified access arrangements result in increased travel distances. However, in all cases these are off-set by improved travel times and safety for movements from those properties, especially those wishing to turn right onto the existing SH1.

Emergency services effects

149. Due to the use of half-interchanges for the Expressway, there was the potential for the distances emergency services must travel to respond to an incident to be very lengthy.

150. To avoid this delay for the Te Horo Rural Fire Service, a special access link has been provided at Te Horo between the northbound and southbound lanes of the Expressway. This will allow emergency services (such as the rural fire truck) to access the Expressway and respond to an incident in a northbound direction. A similar situation might also arise where an emergency service vehicle (such as the Police) from Ōtaki respond to an incident in the northbound direction north of the south Ōtaki interchange by accessing the Expressway at Ōtaki Gorge Road, heading southbound on the Expressway and then using the emergency services link to access the northbound direction. There will be a series of these links provided within the Project area to ensure emergency services can efficiently respond to any incidents on the Expressway or within the Project area.

27 Approximately 30 motorists who would travel southbound are affected in the morning and evening peak periods. Because of the south facing ramps at Ōtaki Gorge Road there is also the option for the affected motorists to use the Expressway to travel south.

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Rail effects

151. As noted in my evidence above, the Project will result in a number of significant improvements for KiwiRail, rail passengers, rail freight, and road users currently impacted by at-grade rail crossings.

152. The key rail features and benefits of the Project include:

(a) realignment of the NIMT between Ōtaki River and north Ōtaki;

(b) realignment of the Ōtaki Railway Station;

(d) improving access to Ōtaki and Waikanae Railway stations, which should help to encourage usage of rail for local residents; and

(e) safeguarding of the corridor for future rail duplication.

153. All of these effects are considered to be positive and seek to enhance or facilitate future enhancement of the existing rail corridor through the Project area.

TRANSPORT EFFECTS DURING CONSTRUCTION

154. As discussed in the evidence of Mr Derek Holmes, the scale of the Project means that construction is expected to take place over a 3.5 to 4-year period (although this is predicted to be in a staged manner).

155. While the construction of the Project will take place largely away from existing roads, construction activity has the potential to create adverse effects on the existing road network. This is especially the case where construction is in the vicinity of the existing roading network and as a result of additional construction traffic movements.

156. The construction methodology is outlined in the evidence of Mr Holmes. From this methodology, measures to control adverse construction effects on the road network have been identified. A draft CTMP (refer to Appendix G of Volume 4 of the materials lodged with the Project applications – Management Plans) has been prepared to identify the traffic control activities required in each construction sector, and the typical mitigation measures. In general terms, the traffic control activities identified for the Project are:28

(a) footpath closures and detours;

(b) cycle lane closures and detours;

(d) shoulder closures;

(e) lane closures;

28 Table 2.1 CTMP.

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(f) road closures and detours;

(g) provision of site access for construction traffic; and

(h) the use of temporary speed limits.

157. These traffic control activities will be required throughout the length of the Expressway in locations where construction is in the vicinity of the existing road network.

158. The effects of these traffic control activities, for which appropriate management measures will need to be devised, will include:

(a) inconvenience to road users, pedestrians and cyclists;

(b) some reduced safety;

(d) reduced capacity and increased congestion; and

(e) disruption for the bus routes that service the Ōtaki and Te Horo communities (including school bus services).

159. This section of my evidence describes the type of traffic control activities proposed to ensure that the construction effects on the road network are appropriately avoided or mitigated, and that road user safety is maintained at all times.

160. While the exact activities, and the associated effects, cannot be fully assessed and confirmed until a contractor has been identified, programme defined and final CTMP developed, road construction methodology and avoidance and mitigation measures are well understood and I have had experience in implementing them.

161. All construction traffic effects will be managed by:

(a) the conditions of the designation;

(b) the CTMP;

(d) the NZTA's Code of Practice for Temporary Traffic Management, which sets the highest standard for temporary traffic measures on New Zealand's roads.

162. In my opinion, adverse effects on road users arising from the Project's construction will mostly be limited to the discrete construction sites where the Expressway connects to, or crosses, the existing road network. The majority of these construction sites are expected to have similar traffic effects, because the nature of the construction activities are similar at each site, including bridge, intersection, and interchange construction.

163. The Integrated Transport Assessment and the draft CTMP identify the potential traffic effects and typical mitigation measures when undertaking each anticipated traffic

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control activity. The final CTMP will be completed in accordance with the proposed designation conditions.

164. The effects of footpath and cycle route closures and detours may include inconvenience to pedestrians and residents along the route, and possible increasing exposure of pedestrians to traffic. As noted above, outside Ōtaki there is limited pedestrian activity within the Project area.

165. Appropriate mitigation measures (as foreshadowed in the conditions and draft CTMP) are likely to include letter drops in advance of the works, warning and advisory signage during the closure, additional pedestrian crossings and refuges, providing convenient pedestrian detour routes, and providing temporary access to properties within the construction corridor. These will ensure that people are aware of the changes and that they can safely continue to travel on foot or by bicycle.

166. Closures to property access may result in inconvenience to residents and businesses along the Project area. When a closure to property access is required, the standard approach is for a member of the Project team to visit the affected party personally to discuss the effects of the closure. Other typical mitigation measures include letter drops prior to construction, provisions of temporary car parking, provision of metal- plate crossings where feasible (and safe), and the scheduling of works during holidays or low-demand periods. These will ensure that people are aware of the changes and that they can safely continue to access their properties.

167. Shoulder closures can result in reduced safety, removal of room for incident management and break downs, and increased congestion. The primary mitigation measure for these effects is the installation of temporary speed limits and advance warning signs.

168. The NZTA's Over-Dimension Vehicle Route Maps identify the existing SH1 as an Over–dimension Vehicle Route. This capability will be maintained throughout the duration of the works and there will be no adverse effect caused to over-dimension vehicles.

169. Reducing speed limits around construction activities can be an inconvenience to road users. Where lower speed limits are used, speed controlling measures will be put in place using active temporary traffic management, such as cones and signage and the narrowing of lanes.

170. Further, where possible, site access points will be located off the existing SH1 and in slower speed environments, to minimise effects on traffic. Typical effects caused by site accesses are reduced traffic capacity, reduced safety due to truck manoeuvring and increased traffic on access roads causing congestion. Site access points off the local network will be designed in accordance with COPTTM29 requirements. Where the existing pavement cross-section fronting a site access point does not allow for construction vehicles to pull off the through lane before turning into the site, temporary

29 NZTA Code of Practice for Temporary Traffic Management.

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improvements or controls will be implemented to manage this activity. It is also best practice for construction traffic to avoid peak traffic flow periods, where possible. This mitigation will ensure that the effects of site access points on the road network will be appropriate and that safety will not be compromised. The CTMP will be finalised and approved prior to construction, whereas SSTMPs will be subject to on-going development, review and authorisation by the relevant road controlling authority.

171. A strategy that employs a combination of these mitigation measures will be developed by the NZTA in consultation with affected parties and KCDC. This strategy will be incorporated within the SSTMPs, in accordance with the proposed designation conditions.

Construction vehicle movements

172. The construction of the Project in accordance with the programme in the CTMP will generate periods of significant construction vehicle movements around particular locations in the Project area. Access into the construction sites could be via SH1, Rahui Road, Ōtaki Gorge Road, Old Hautere Road or School Road.

173. An assessment of how the construction vehicles could affect the operation of the different intersections has been summarised in Integrated Transport Assessment.30 The assessment concluded that any additional construction vehicles accessing the site via Rahui, Ōtaki Gorge, Old Hautere or School Roads will have a negligible effect on the performance of those intersections – where road users are already experiencing delays.

174. At the Old Hautere Road and School Road intersections there is insufficient room for a truck and trailer to wait beyond the NIMT railway line to enter the State highway. The School Road intersection is also nearest to the local population, which is used to access Te Horo Primary School. The CTMP will need to address these added risks appropriately if site access was to be implemented at either of these locations. Options considered as to how these risks could be minimised are:

(a) temporarily re-locating the School Road level crossing further to the south where the required storage space for truck and trailer units can be provided;

(b) limiting the movement of truck and trailer units to left in and left out only from this intersection – this would allow for deliveries from the north with trucks using the Peka Peka interchange (4km to the south) to turn back towards the north;

(d) staging of bridge construction to minimise traffic effects (ie making the Expressway alignment available at an early stage to provide for HCV movements within the site).

30 Section 12.

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175. The most significant delays arising from construction traffic are forecast for motorists turning right out of the side roads in the evening peak hour. Queues are forecast to form and this will affect those wishing to turn left as well. This could be mitigated through limiting right-turn movements by construction traffic during peak hours, or restricting right-turn movements completely.

176. There are two locations where early construction of local road overpasses would avoid the safety hazard associated with HCVs turning right across high volume traffic flows on the existing SH1. These overpasses include the Te Horo overpass and the Ōtaki Gorge Road overpass. The construction of these facilities early would allow for safer and more efficient construction movements while also providing early benefits to the local community.

177. Other opportunities that could be incorporated into the CTMP once the contactor has been identified for the Project might include the construction of the link road between Old Hautere Road and Ōtaki Gorge Road. This would provide greater options for local residents and the HCV movements during construction (linked to earlier comments relating to the Ōtaki Gorge Road overpass).

Pedestrian and cycle facilities

178. Existing pedestrian and cycle facilities will be maintained during construction of the Project, where that is feasible and safe.

179. Pedestrian and cycle facilities are limited within the Project area, and are generally in the Ōtaki urban area only. Where it is not possible to maintain the existing facilities, in these areas temporary traffic management can be used to direct pedestrians and cyclists to the other side of the road or onto a temporary path.

Public transport

180. The Project works will need to ensure that the existing bus routes are maintained; works are expected to have little effect on the operation of the 290 bus route.

181. There is one school bus route servicing Te Horo Primary School. Expressway construction will have minimal effect on the roads currently used by school bus services, as most of the existing local road to State highway connections will be maintained.

ASSESSMENT OF THE PROJECT AGAINST RELEVANT TRANSPORT STRATEGIES AND POLICIES, AND THE PROJECT OBJECTIVES

182. As part of the preparation of my evidence I have assessed the Project against local, regional and national transport policies and strategies (some of which are also touched on in the planning evidence of Mr Coop).

Land Transport Management Act 2003

183. The Land Transport Management Act 2003 ("LTMA") is the legal framework in which to manage and fund land transport activities. The purpose of the LTMA is to achieve

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an affordable, integrated, safe, responsive and sustainable land transport system. Transport projects must therefore be assessed against the LTMA and the five objectives from the New Zealand Transport Strategy ("NZTS") as outlined below:

(a) assisting economic development;

(b) assisting safety and personal security;

(d) protecting and promoting public health; and

(e) ensuring environmental sustainability.

184. The Project contributes to the LTMA and NZTS objectives, in my opinion, because it will:

(a) significantly reduce crash risks for all road users in the Project area by shifting the majority of traffic from the existing multi-function SH1 route onto a much higher-standard and safer expressway;

(b) reduce congestion and improve travel time reliability for both local and strategic through traffic (including freight), especially at weekends and during holiday periods;

(c) separate local and strategic through traffic, particularly in the Ōtaki Railway Retail area, and other residential sections, along the existing SH1 route;

(d) significantly improve accessibility through the Project area and entry and exit of local side roads and private property, which are currently adversely affected by high traffic volumes, making it unsafe and constraining to residents and users; and

(e) significantly reduce traffic on the existing SH1, which will also improve accessibility and reduce severance for pedestrians and cyclists wishing to use or cross the transportation corridor.

Government Policy Statement

185. Under the LTMA, the NZTA must give effect to the GPS31 in developing the National Land Transport Programme, taking into account the aims of the GPS when approving funding for activities.

186. The Project forms part of the Wellington Northern Corridor RoNS set out in the GPS, thereby giving effect to Government policy as required by the LTMA.

187. The GPS also contains a number of short to medium-term goals that the Government expects to be achieved through the use of the National Land Transport Fund that contribute to economic growth and productivity. These have been described further in

31 Government Policy Statement 2012/13 to 2021/22.

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the evidence of Mr Rod James of the NZTA. These include making improvements in the provision of infrastructure and services such that they will enhance transport efficiency and lower the cost of transportation through:

(a) improvements in journey time reliability;

(b) easing of severe congestion at peak times (especially holiday weekends);

(d) more efficient freight supply chains;

(e) better use of existing transport capacity; and

(f) the creation of a more secure and resilient transport network.

188. Other short to medium-term goals in the GPS set out the Government's expectation that there are:

(a) reductions in deaths and serious injuries as a result of road crashes;

(b) more transport choices, particularly for those with limited access to a car, where appropriate;

(d) contributions to positive health outcomes.

189. I consider that the Project contributes to these objectives because the Expressway will provide a safer, more efficient, resilient and secure State highway and local road network for the movement of general traffic, freight, public transport, and pedestrian/cycle movements. The Project will also result in the removal of 5 of 8 existing level crossings (including all the local road crossings).

Wellington Regional Land Transport Strategy

190. The RLTS provides an overall context and direction for transport investment in the region. It provides six objectives; of which five are the same as those identified in the NZTS (as discussed in relation to the LTMA above), the sixth objective relates to matters of Project funding and economics, which has been addressed in the evidence of Mr Selwyn Blackmore of the NZTA and Mr Copeland.

191. As with the LTMA assessment, I consider the Project contributes to all of the objectives contained in the RLTS. There is reference to the Project in the Western Corridor Plan 2012 and earlier versions of the RLTS adopted prior to the Wellington Northern Corridor RoNS.

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Regional Freight Plan

192. GWRC's 2011 Regional Freight Plan is a supporting document to the RLTS. The plan highlights the importance of freight movement in the region, and it also sets out key actions to integrate planning processes and improve freight reliability. In my opinion the Project is consistent with this plan because it will create an Expressway which reduces the need for HCVs to slow down as they travel through Ōtaki, greater network resilience and improved safety for transporting freight on road or rail.

KCDC Sustainable Transport Strategy

193. The KCDC Sustainable Transport Strategy 200832 identifies the following Transport Objective for the Kāpiti Coast:

"Within the overall District vision, the primary transport objective for the Kāpiti Coast is to… create a physical transport system that is attractive, affordable, connected, responsive, safe and offers effective mode choice so that it enables people to act in a sustainable way."

194. The Strategy recognises traffic congestion on SH1 is currently a problem (it should be noted, however, that this was produced prior to commencement of the overall Wellington Northern RoNS Corridor development).

195. The key features of the KCDC Community Outcomes (from the Strategy) which are relevant to transport are as follows:

(a) that the level and quality of access within and between communities is improved;

(b) that the district develops a role as a transport hub, including the distribution of freight;

(d) that there are extensive access linkages within the district in addition to SH1.

196. In my view, the Project will significantly contribute to these community transport objectives. This will be achieved through the creation of the Expressway to accommodate safe and efficient traffic and freight movements. The removal of traffic from the existing SH1, and the overbridges associated with the Project which will provide safe crossings of the Expressway and will improve local linkages between communities, improving transport access for the labour force. The Project will significantly improve linkages by duplicating the north-south linkage through the district which currently acts as the only roading lifeline through the area.

32 http://www.Kāpiticoast.govt.nz/Documents/Downloads/Strategies/Sustainable-Transport-Strategy.pdf

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Greater Ōtaki Vision

197. The Greater Ōtaki Vision ("GOV") 2007 is a document produced as a result of the KCDC Long Term Council Community Plan process which is also known as 'Choosing Futures'.

198. As discussed in Mr Coop's evidence, the GOV seeks to manage future population and employment growth within the existing Ōtaki urban area. In doing so it looks at a number of outcomes which are linked to transport as a result of population growth and land use, particularly the ability for the urban areas to grow without the capacity constraints associated with the existing SH1 traffic in the Ōtaki Retail area.

199. One of the most significant outcomes of the GOV is that it proposes no new urban development at Te Horo Beach and Te Horo. As a result, the Project has been designed in such a way to minimise the development pressure that might be placed on Te Horo and the rural areas south to Peka Peka. This has been achieved through the location of appropriate interchange points centred on the Ōtaki Railway Retail area and not placing south facing ramps at Peka Peka. I believe that the provision of a full interchange at Peka Peka would increase the demand for residential activity in the rural area south of Ōtaki.

Assessment of the Project against the Project objectives

200. The objectives for the Project are listed in paragraph 72 above. Sitting above these are a set of Wellington Northern Corridor RoNS-wide Resource Management Act 1991 ("RMA") objectives. Table 2 in Part A of the AEE shows how the Project objectives (below) relate to the RoNS-wide objectives. Part A also presents KiwiRail objectives for the Project, which are related to rail safety, efficiency and accessibility.

201. This section of my evidence (in Table 5 below) documents the transport effects of the Project as they relate to the relevant Project objectives.

Table 5: Transport effects in relation to the NZTA Project objectives

Objective: Enhance efficiency and journey time reliability from, to and through the Kāpiti District, Wellington’s Central Business District, key industrial and employment centres, the port, airport and hospital (by developing and constructing a cost-optimised new State highway to expressway standards between Peka Peka and north of Ōtaki).

The Project will:

- reduce travel times through the Project area by approximately two minutes at peak hours on an average weekday;

- reduce the travel time unreliability associated with travel on weekends and holiday weekends; and

- provide a second highway route, built to a higher standard, thereby increasing

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resilience to natural hazards and providing a choice of routes in cases of a serious road traffic accident.

Objective: Enhance safety of travel on SH1 (by developing and constructing a cost-optimised new State highway to expressway standards between Peka Peka and north of Ōtaki).

The Project will:

- minimise or eliminate the number of severe or fatal head on crashes (currently 14% of crashes over the past 5 years); and

- significantly reduce the number and severity of crashes overall (including the existing SH1). The construction of the Expressway is expected to reduce the annual crash cost by 60 percent.

Objective: Appropriately balance the competing functional performance requirements of inter-regional and local traffic movements, and to facilitate others to provide modal choice opportunities, to enable local facilities and amenities in the Kāpiti Coast District to be efficiently accessed (by developing and constructing a cost- optimised new State highway to expressway standards between Peka Peka and north of Ōtaki).

The Project will:

- reserve the use of the existing SH1 for use by people making local trips within the Project area and within Kāpiti district;

- significantly reduce the traffic flow on the existing SH1, making it more conducive to non-motorised travel;

- moderately improve connectivity across the national transport corridor (NIMT and Expressway);

- significantly improve connectivity across the existing SH1; and

- make it significantly easier to access side roads and parking areas and cross the road on the existing SH1 in Ōtaki Railway Retail area.

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Objective: Avoid, remedy or mitigate the immediate and long-term adverse social, cultural, land use and other environmental effects of the Project on the Kāpiti Coast District and its communities by, so far as reasonably practicable, through route and alignment selection, expressway design and conditions (by developing and constructing a cost-optimised new State highway to expressway standards between Peka Peka and north of Ōtaki).

The Project will:

- limit development pressures in the Te Horo area in accordance with the prevailing planning framework (refer to the evidence of Mr Coulman and Mr Coop);

- make access to the Ōtaki Railway Retail area during peak periods, including public holidays, easier for visitors and residents by reducing the volume of traffic on the existing SH1;

- safeguard the future ability to extend rail double tracking through the Project area; and

- reduce the possibility of crashes between motor vehicles and rail by providing grade-separated local road connections at (or otherwise removing) five of the existing eight level crossings in the Project area.

Objective: Be integrated into the form of Kāpiti Coast District by taking into account current and planned future land use and development in route and alignment selection, expressway design and conditions.

The Project will:

- support and highlight Ōtaki's function as one of Kāpiti district's three main centres and the functional centre of the Greater Ōtaki area;

- limit development pressures in the Te Horo area in accordance with the district planning framework; and

- reduce severance by improving connectivity and accessibility of cross corridor and local movements across the existing SH1.

Objective: Efficiently serve Ōtaki and its future development by providing appropriate vehicle access and signage to and from the new expressway.

The Project will:

- through the half-interchanges at north and south Ōtaki, provide fast and efficient vehicle access to and from Ōtaki without increasing travel distance; and

- provide Expressway users with advanced warning (i.e. advanced directional

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signing) on the approaches to Ōtaki.

202. In my view, the Project also makes a significant contribution to the Project-specific KiwiRail objectives relevant to transport, as discussed in Table 6 below.

Table 6: Transport effects in relation to KiwiRail Project objectives

Objective: To establish and maintain safe and efficient rail passenger transport services within the region by providing rail infrastructure and services.

The Project will help to improve rail operational efficiency and safety through the straightening of curves, removing 5 at grade rail crossings and facilitating future realignment and duplication of the rail corridor should it be required for passenger transport in the future.

Objective: Contribute to economic development and provide for the development of safe public transport services.

The Project will help to improve the operating speeds for rail which will result in greater efficiency of rail freight and passenger transport operations.

Safety will be improved through safer road links to rail stations at Waikanae and Ōtaki while the project will also remove 5 at grade rail crossings reducing the risk of conflict to rail passengers and improving operational efficiency of services.

Objective: Allow for stations which are easily accessible and serve the needs for existing and future communities.

The Project:

- will improve access to Ōtaki and Waikanae railway stations through the creation of a more accessible and safe local arterial on the existing SH1 for all modes of travel (pedestrians, cyclists, general traffic and buses); and

- has also considered station access and the option of providing for an additional station at Te Horo has been safeguarded for should rail electrification or track duplication occur in the future.

Objective: To achieve a connected and integrated transport network.

The Project will improve access to Ōtaki and Waikanae railway stations for all modes using the existing SH1 while also providing an alternative Expressway link to other modes such as the Wellington metropolitan rail network, airports at Paraparaumu and Wellington, and the port of Wellington (including the ferry terminal).

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RESPONSE TO SUBMISSIONS

KCDC (102892)

203. KCDC has raised a number of transport-related matters in its submission, and my comments are set out below.33

Cycleway / walkway / bridleway

204. KCDC seeks to ensure provision is made for a shared north-south cycleway, walkway and bridleway over the length of the Project. As explained in my evidence above:

(a) as discussed above, in my view there is very little demand for such a facility;

(b) overall the Project will make it safer and more attractive for users of the existing SH1 corridor; thus the Project does not adversely affect north-south trips by cyclists or pedestrians; and

(c) conversely, in those areas where the Project could adversely affect access across the corridor, such effects have been considered and addressed through provision of appropriate shared cycleway, walkway and bridleway facilities.

205. In my opinion the Project is very different to the MacKays to Peka Peka project (where a dedicated off-road cycleway, alongside the expressway, is provided), as for this Project there is an adjacent corridor that already has local access and reflects 'desire lines' – ie routes between valued trip origins and destinations. The MacKays project consists of a new transport corridor which will create a desire line between closely associated urban areas, which in turn is a point in favour of a cycling facility being provided for that project.

206. In respect of this Project, in my view a desire line would only exist on the existing SH1 corridor (except between Ōtaki Gorge Road and Old Hautere Road, where a dedicated cycling facility is to be provided as part of the Project). Any further facility would therefore not be aimed at addressing effects of the Project.

207. As discussed in the evidence of Mr Blackmore, the outcomes of the State highway revocation process may influence the outcome for such a shared facility along the existing SH1, and as a result it may be appropriate that such a facility is developed at that time.

East-west linkages

208. KCDC has requested additional pedestrian facilities on the Te Horo Bridge; from previous discussions the team have had with KCDC, I understood there was general agreement that the 2.5m facility on the most desirable side of the road (the south side at this location, to be used by pedestrians, cyclists, and equestrian users – if they dismount and walk across), and the wider shoulders provided for cyclists and

33 Many of those same matters were also raised in KCDC's 'key issues' report (under section 149G(3) of the RMA); my evidence does not respond separately to those points.

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equestrian users wishing to ride on the road, would be appropriate given the expected low volume of demand.

209. I believe the outcome for all users of the local road will be a significant improvement on the existing situation, which is severed by SH1 and the NIMT.

Access onto local roads

210. KCDC comments on the future speed transition from the Expressway onto local roads. This matter has been an important consideration in the form of the intersections and the design of the slip lanes. In particular, I believe that the transition of speed has been appropriately considered at the southbound exit from the Expressway at north Ōtaki, and will remain largely the same as existing. Any additional treatment of the local road required will be considered as part of the State highway revocation process in this area.

211. As discussed in my evidence above, all intersections experiencing Expressway on/off movements will have a LOS better than the desired LOS C requested by KCDC, which is a significant improvement on the existing and forecast LOS without the Project. Sensitivity testing suggests that traffic growth would need to increase by over 60% on the local road (in and out of Ōtaki) before a LOS D occurred at any of the local road intersections.

SH1 and accessibility to town centres

212. KCDC seek to ensure that there is effective and appropriate signage north and south of Ōtaki to inform motorists of the town. I agree that such signage signalling Ōtaki as a destination and service centre is important, and this is reflected in the Project objectives and the design of the access arrangements for Ōtaki.

Construction traffic effects

213. KCDC seeks to certify the CTMP and related SSTMPs; this matter is discussed in the evidence of Ms Beals.

John Harper (102851), Caitlin Taylor (102879), Ian Cassels (102890), Paul Pretty (102891), Lance Bills (102870)

214. These submitters raise similar matters, including in respect of:

(a) interchange access at Te Horo;

(b) access for emergency vehicles; and

215. In terms of the requests that the Project include south-facing interchange ramps at Te Horo, as explained in my evidence above, there will be a negligible change in journey times for local access to Te Horo from the north and south, and the provision of such

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ramps would be inconsistent with the planning outcomes sought by KCDC for the development of this area (as discussed further in the evidence of Mr Coop).34

216. The concern in respect of access for emergency services at Te Horo has been addressed through the special access link provided for such services. The Te Horo Rural Fire Service is aware of this link and its submission indicates its support for these measures, and for the Project as a whole (submission 102841).

217. In terms of travel time changes for trips to and from Te Horo, as explained in my evidence above:

(a) there will be small changes in journey times for local access to Te Horo from the north and south;

(b) the delay at the intersection of School Road and the existing SH1 will be considerably reduced by the provision of a new grade-separated crossing; and

(c) although the new crossing will result in a small increase in local trip distances, in my view the improved safety and reduced delay associated with accessing the existing SH1 will significantly improve accessibility for these residents.

218. In terms of travel times between Te Horo and MacKays Crossing (towards Wellington), I acknowledge that the Project will increase the journey time between these two locations by approximately 3-4 minutes (as noted in part (d) of table 6-6 of the Integrated Transport Assessment), as a result of no longer having direct access to the MacKays to Peka Peka section of expressway. However, I note that these journeys will occur on the existing SH1 route with a much lower traffic volume, making it less congested and safer than the existing journey. The most common journeys to and from Te Horo are to and from Waikanae and Ōtaki and this will occur on the existing SH1 as described above.

219. Overall, the Wellington Northern Corridor RoNS package will give rise to significant travel time savings for trips between Te Horo and Wellington if they travel back to the south Ōtaki interchange or travel south on the existing SH1 until Raumati as they currently travel.

Sharyn Sutton (102855)

220. Ms Sutton has suggested in her submission that the Project provides too much capacity for motor vehicle journeys. As explained in my evidence above, my assessment has shown that two lanes in each direction are required to provide a LOS B (the target LOS for the Expressway) with the forecast flow variability.

221. Ms Sutton has also raised issues about what she considers to be poor integration of the Expressway with the surrounding roading network, and about the choice of Expressway route. As explained in my evidence above:

34 The same would be true of additional ramps at the Peka Peka interchange – this is a matter raised in some submissions, including that of Lance Bills (102870).

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(a) the overall delay at intersections with the existing SH1 will be considerably reduced;

(b) underpasses have been provided where the Expressway would otherwise sever links between a local road and existing SH1 (at Rahui Road, Ōtaki Gorge Road, and School Road); and

(c) the Project will also create a new local arterial between Peka Peka Road and Mary Crest, which will significantly improve access for those using Te Kowhai Road and Te Hapua Road.

222. Ms Sutton's submission also suggests that the Project provides an inadequate bypass of Ōtaki. The Project will reduce travel times for people travelling past Ōtaki on a typical week day by almost two minutes, which corresponds to a 10 percent reduction in travel times through the Project area, and the bypass will result in increased freight efficiency and reduced journey time variability.

223. A further matter raised by Ms Sutton relates to the assessment of construction traffic effects from the Project. As explained in my evidence above, I consider that the effects of construction traffic have been thoroughly assessed and will be appropriately managed through the proposed conditions, including the CTMP and SSTMP processes.

224. Ms Sutton has raised a concern about increased travel times between Te Horo and Wellington, which I have addressed above.

Kent Duston (102857)

225. Mr Duston's submission suggests that the Project assessment has not addressed all transport modes in an equitable fashion. As explained in my evidence above:

(a) access to existing park and ride facilities at Ōtaki and/or Waikanae stations will be improved for local residents;

(b) the Expressway will have minimal effect on school bus routes and make it safer for these movements;

(c) new grade-separated walking, cycling and equestrian crossings of the Expressway, existing SH1 and NIMT will be provided at north Ōtaki, south Ōtaki, Rahui Road and Te Horo;

(d) the volume of traffic on the existing SH1 will be considerably reduced, making it a more attractive route for pedestrians, cyclists and equestrians; and

(e) the assessment has identified that the Project will have little or no effect on the travel mode in this area (based on outputs of the WTSM model).

226. Mr Duston has raised an issue about the appropriateness of the traffic data used in my assessment. The traffic models used are based on census data, surveyed travel time data and predicted land-use, and both the regional and network models used have

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been extensively verified by national and international experts. In my opinion they form a robust basis on which to assess the needs for and effects of the Project.

227. Mr Duston also suggests that the Project does not represent an integrated transport solution. I have explained in my evidence that the Project aims to facilitate others to provide modal choice opportunities as part of a wider transport strategy.

Lynn Sleath (102873)

228. Mr Sleath has requested a shared pedestrian/cycle pathway from Te Kowhai Road to Ōtaki Township. I have addressed this matter in response to KCDC's submission above.

229. Mr Sleath has also requested a new local road connecting Forest Lakes Road with Taylors Road; I note that this is outside the scope of this Project, but can be considered by the NZTA as part of other network improvements.

230. Mr Sleath has requested the Project reduce the speed of the existing SH1 to 80km/h. This is one possible outcome of the process of revoking the State highway status of the relevant section of existing SH1, which is outside the scope of this Project.

Automobile Association (102884)

231. The AA has requested that the Expressway be designated as a motorway, to prohibit its use by cyclists. I note that this is philosophy that would need to be applied to the entire northern corridor RoNS for consistency purposes.

232. Road safety (including for cyclists) will be a key consideration in the revocation process for existing SH1, as well as detailed design and commissioning of the Expressway.

233. The AA has requested that a full diamond interchange is provided at South Ōtaki for HCVs travelling north from the Ōtaki River Industrial area to access the Expressway directly. I do not consider that such an interchange is justified on transportation grounds, and I note that the Project will result in approximately a 42% reduction in HCVs in the Ōtaki Railway Retail area.

Ōtaki Community Board (102894)

234. The Ōtaki Community Board, like KCDC and other submitters, has requested a shared cycle pathway along the length of the Expressway. I have addressed this matter above in response to KCDC's submission.

Greg Elliott – the Lorax Partnership (102896)

235. Mr Elliott has raised the matter of the Project not providing specifically for pedestrians and cyclists between Ōtaki and Waikanae, which I have discussed above.

236. Mr Elliott has also raised a query about the appropriateness of the traffic data, which I have addressed above in response to the submission of Mr Duston.

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Alliance for Sustainable Kāpiti (102898)

237. The submission Alliance for Sustainable Kāpiti raises the following matters:

(a) concerns about the approach to the Project not being an integrated transport solution;

(b) the project providing too much capacity; and

238. I have addressed these issues above.

Paul Young (102899)

239. Mr Young has suggested that the traffic modelling used for the Project does not take into account climate change and a significantly raised carbon price. As explained in the body of my evidence above, the WTSM model uses land use data, calibrated trip behaviour models predicted future year land use patterns, economic variables and assumptions about future improvements to the transport system. In the 2011 revalidation of the model, significant work was undertaken to look at fuel pricing and vehicle efficiency. This work utilised information from the Ministry of Economic Development and concluded that although significant fuel price rises are forecast, they will be offset by improvements in efficiency of vehicles. These inputs have been used for the transport modelling and future forecasting.

240. Further, Mr Young's submission queries whether the traffic modelling has taken into account aging population demographics. I understand that the WTSM model, following its revalidation in 2011, uses current Statistics NZ population data to reflect changing trends in age and employment.

CONCLUSION

241. Currently SH1 is the only arterial route into Wellington from the west coast of the North Island. The lack of an alternative route means that this route into Wellington has poor route security and provides a dual local road and State highway function.

242. I have assessed the transport effects of the Project and believe there to be a significant number of positive effects associated the construction of this part of the wider Wellington Northern RoNS package.

243. The provision of an Expressway built to a higher standard than the existing SH1 will reduce congestion, ensure greater travel time reliability, significantly improve safety, improve the resilience of the transport network, and allow the existing SH1 to service the needs of local residents, businesses, and visitors. This will improve access and mobility for vehicles, walking, and cycling, while also making travel by train more efficient, safer and more accessible.

244. I have now been involved in the Project for approximately three years and in that time I have seen many of the potential negative transportation effects of the Project

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(identified by specialists, stakeholders and members of the public) avoided or mitigated, resulting in a better Project being developed. A good example of this is the inclusion of the Rahui Road bridge, as discussed in the evidence of Mr Coulman.

245. The Project will have a small number of negative transportation effects associated with changes in access to private properties and Old Hautere Road, which will be off-set by reduced delay at intersections adjoining the existing SH1 and significantly improved safety.

246. Although a contractor has not been identified to build this Project, the effects of an assumed construction methodology and programme have been assessed, while a draft CEMP and draft CTMP have also been prepared. From a transport perspective the effects of construction traffic will be greatest at intersections adjoining the existing SH1 and these should be managed through the use of as much off-line construction as possible, use of truck and trailer units for the importation and export of materials, avoiding the occurrence of truck and trailer units blocking the NIMT, carrying out construction activities, traffic management and the communication of information to the community and road users in general accordance with the draft CEMP and CTMP.

247. I am of the view that this Project and the wider Wellington Northern RoNS package will provide significant benefits to the local community, the wider economy and the general travelling public of NZ. Without the Project a serious crash risk (road and rail) will remain, as well as continued congestion (especially during peak times, weekends and holidays periods), restricted local access and a real lack of network resilience over the Ōtaki River.

David James Dunlop

12 July 2013

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ANNEXURE A – PROPOSED DISTRICT PLAN TRANSPORT NETWORK HIERARCHY35

35 Source: http://www.kapiticoast.govt.nz/Documents/Downloads/District-Plan-Review/Proposed-District-Plan/Vol3- Maps/Transport_Hierarchy.pdf

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ANNEXURE B – PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK

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ANNEXURE C – ADDITIONAL SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT INFORMATION

Sensitivity testing – operational transport assessment

1. I understand that a technical reviewer has sought further information about the sensitivity testing undertaken as part of the operational transport assessment of the Project. Two such sensitivity tests have been undertaken, as noted in the body of my evidence.

2. Reducing the speed of traffic on the existing SH1 from 100km/h to 80km/h is not planned as part of this Project. However, by constructing the Expressway there is the opportunity for the speed on the existing SH1 to be reduced in the future.

3. Reducing the speed limit to 80kmph would cause very little change in the traffic patterns, with about 100 additional vehicles per day switching to the Expressway from the existing SH1. The trips affected would all have one trip end further south than Waikanae and an origin or destination in the rural part of the Project area surrounding Te Horo. The effects of this change are therefore most likely to be experienced by people that live or work in the rural part of the Project area. If KCDC decided to change the speed limit in the future, I believe this would have a very minor effect on travel time and could benefit other users such as pedestrians, cyclists and equestrian users.

4. The high growth scenario shows that in 2031 traffic flows on the Expressway are forecast to be between 800 and 1400 vehicles per day higher than those predicted for the medium growth scenario. The flows on the existing SH1 are however only about 100 to 300 vehicles per day higher. The high growth forecasts for the 2031 forecast year are similar in magnitude to the 2041 medium growth forecasts. It is considered that the Project would have sufficient capacity to absorb the demands associated with a high growth scenario, having a negligible impact on traffic or the wider transport network.

Sensitivity tests for potential construction traffic effects

5. Sensitivity testing has been carried out to look at intersection performance and associated safety for each construction site. The following scenarios were presented in the Integrated Transport Assessment:

(a) The successful contractor may choose to use trucks rather than the anticipated truck with trailers to transport pavement and earthworks, therefore doubling the daily construction related HCV flow.

(b) The location of the quarry which will supply the inbound earthworks material is unknown. Therefore a comparison has been carried out with the earthworks material flowing in the northbound and southbound direction.

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6. As would be expected, the sensitivity results from the first scenario mentioned above indicate an overall increase in the delays. This implies that the additional HCV flows would result in performance of the construction site intersections deteriorating further.

7. Listed below are the critical movements at each intersection, during both AM and PM peak periods, and their largest expected increase in delays, with the percentage change presented in brackets:

(a) Rahui Road RT = 2 sec (17%)

(b) Ōtaki Gorge Road RT = 7 sec (13%)

(d) School Road RT = 16 sec (36%)

8. Based on these results, it would be recommended that truck and trailer units are utilised during construction in an attempt to minimise the impact of construction on intersection performance and safety.

9. The analysis of the second scenario noted above implies that the inbound earthworks material flowing in a northbound direction will result in the intersection performing slightly better overall than when the material is flowing in a southbound direction.

10. The different situations assessed in this scenario have little impact during the PM peak period. However, during the AM period some intersections have been affected substantially. These intersections and the difference in delays are listed below:

(a) Ōtaki Gorge Road RT = -9 sec (-17%) Less when in the northbound direction

(b) Old Hautere Road RT = 17 sec (4%) More when in the northbound direction

11. Based on these sensitivity tests it can be concluded that the use of truck and trailer units instead of doubling the number of HCV movements associated with the use of single truck units will have less impact on intersection performance.

12. The use of materials imported from the south will have a lesser effect than those imported from the north despite the fact that the right turning movements occurring from the side road are likely to be occurring with an empty truck.

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