Report No. 1561c-MLI Appraisalof the MOPTI11 Rice Project Mali
Public Disclosure Authorized FILECOPY November2, 1977 Agriculture ProjectsDepartment West Africa RegionalOffice FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank
This document hasa restricteddistribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosedwithout World Bankauthorization. Currency Equivalents
Currency Unit - Mali Franc (MF) US$ 1 - MF 490 MF 1 - US$ 0.0020408 MF I Million - US$ 2,041
Weights and Measures
I hectare (ha) 2.47 acres 1 metric ton (t) - 2,205 lbs.
Fiscal Year
Government Jan. 1 - Dec. 31 ORM Jan. 1 - Dec. 31
Abbreviations
ADF African Developmeiit Fund BDM Banque de Developpement du Mali DNAFLA Direction Nationale de l'Alphabetisation Fonctionnelle et de la Linguistique Appliquee EDF European Development Fund FAC Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation GERDAT Groupement d'Etudes et de Recherches pour le Developpement de l'Agronomie Tropicale IDA International Development Association IER Institut de l'Economie Rurale IRAT Institut de Recherches Agronomiques Tropicales et des Produits Vivriers OACV Operation Arachides et Cultures Vivrieres OPAM Office des Produits Agricoles du Mali ORM Operation Riz Mopti RMWA Regional Mission in Western Africa (of the World Bank/IDA) RWD Rural Works Department SCAER Societe de Credit Agricole et d'Equipement Rural SCET Societe Centrale pour l'Equipement du Territoire USAID United States Agency for International Development WARDA West Africa Rice Development Association Foa OFFIAL USE ONLY
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Page No.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i-v
I. INTRODUCTION 1......
II. BACKGROUND ...... 1
A. General ...... 1...... B. The Rural Sector . 2 C. Institutions in Agriculture ...... 3 D. Development Potential and Development Objectives . 4 E. Cereals Consumption and Production ...... 5
III. THE MOPTI I RICE PROJECT ...... 7
A. The Project Area ...... 7 B. Project Description ..o ...... 7 C. Experiences and Conclusions ...... 8
IV. THE PROJECT . 10
A. Description ...... 10 B. Detailed Features ...... 11 C. Organization and Management.. . 14 D. Environment and Health ...... * ...... 16
V. PROJECT COSTS AND FINANCING ...... 16
A. Project Costs ...... 16 B. Financing .... .00...... 18 C. Procurement ...... 19 D. Disbursement ...... 20 E. Accounts, Audits and Reports ...... 21
VI. PRODUCTION AND YIELDS; MARKETS AND PRICES; FARMERS' BENEFITS; ORM FINANCES; GOVERNMENT REVENUE ...... 21
A. Production and Yields ...... 21 B. Markets and Prices ...... 23 C. Farmers' Benefits ...... 24 D. Financial Implications for ORM and Government ..... 25
VII. BENEFITS AND ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION ...... 25
VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION ...... 27
The doumeetha a retric_editrbuom an may be use by rcipientsonly in thepeftonce at * ociulduties I%s wefa y gm oewise be dit_osedwithout Wod Dek autborizution.
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
ANNEXES
1. Rice Production and Consumption in Mali
Table 1 - Development of Rice Consumption in Mali, Total and Per Capita Table 2 - Per Capita Rice Consumption (Kg) in West African Countries Table 3 - Regional Structure of OPAM Cereals Purchases and Sales (1000 t) Table 4 - Rice Milling Capacity (Tons of Paddy)
2. The Project Area
3. Rice Cultivation Under Controlled Flooding
4. The Mopti I Rice Project (Cr. 277-MLI)
Table 1 - Development of Cultivable Area Estimates of Mopti I Rice Project Table 2 - Development of Attributed, Sown and Harvested Area, Yields and Paddy Production of the Mopti I Project Table 3 - Development of Equipment on Mopti I Rice Farms Table 4 - Mopti I Rice Project: Breakdown of Participants by Farmers and Non-Farmers Table 5 - Distribution of Holdings per Family in the Mopti I Rice Project (1975/76) Table 6 - Adoption of Cultivation Techniques in the Mopti I Rice Project Table 7 - Cultivated Area and Cultivation Techniques Used in 1976/77 in the Mopti I Rice Project
5. Project Components
Table 1 - Program of Civil Works Table 2 - Program of Deep Ploughing (ha) Table 3 - Construction of Offices, Houses, Sheds and Stores Appendix I - Functional Literacy Campaign Table 1 - Costs of Adult Literacy Program Appendix II - Applied Agricultural Research Appendix III - Agricultural Credit Table 1 - Agricultural Credit Needs Appendix IV - Terms of Reference for Technical Assistants 6. Assistance to the Rural Works Department, Bamako
Table ' - Budget of Study Bureau, Rural Works Department Table 2 - Assistance to Rural Works Department - Proposed Utilization of Funds
7. Project Cost Estimate
Table I - Project 'ost - Summary Table Table 2 - Project :.ost- Civil Works Table 3 - Project 'ost - Deep Ploughing Table 4 - Project ost - Buildings Table 5 - Project Cost - Engineering and Supervision Table 6 - Project (:ost - Vehicles and Equipment Table 7 - Project 'lost- Adult Literacy Campaign and Audio- Visual Program Table 8 - Project lost - ORM Staff and Technical Assistance Table 9 - Project Cost - ORM Operating Costs Table 10 - Project (ost - On-Farm Investment Table 11 - Project Cost - Assistance to Study Bureau of Rural Works Department Table 12 - Project (ost - Price Contingency Factors
8. Financing Plan and SchedlIe of Disbursements
Table 1 - Financinc Plan Table 2 - Estimatec Schedule of Disbursements
9. Cultivated Areas, Yields, Production
Table I - Development of Area (ha), Yield (t/ha) and Productioa (t ) - with Project Table 2 - Developmeat of Area (hectares), Yield (t/ha), and Production (t) - without Project Table 3 - Adoption Rates of Cultivation Techniques Table 4 - Cultivate: Areas and Paddy Production with and without tie Project
10. Market Prospects for Maliin Rice
Table 1 - Estimate :)fDomestic Paddy Requirements in Mali, 1970/71 - 1985/86 Table 2 - Estimate of Domestic Production of Paddy 1968/69 1985/86 (wvithout the Project) Table 3 - Estimate of Prospective Demand and Supply Relations on Mali R:.-ceMarket, 1975/76-1987/88 (in 1000t of paddy) Table 4a - Export Paiity Price Table 4b - Import Sulstitution Price Table 5 - Developme t of the Rice Marketing Bareme for ORM, 1974/75 - 977/78 11. Farm Budgets
Table 1 - Unit Costs of Farm Inputs (FM) Table 2 - Labor and Equipment Input of Farming Operations (days/ha) Table 3 - Inputs, Yields, and Revenue per Ha at Successive Stages of CultivationTechniques Table 4 - Land Rent and Development Levies - Rent Recovery Rates
12. FinancialImplications for ORM and Government
Table 1 - Projection of ORM Revenue and Expenditure, 1978-1987 Table 2 - Import Subsidies Saved by IncrementalProduction (in FM/t) Table 3 - Impact of Project on GovernmentRevenue Table 4 - Cost Recovery Index and Fiscal Ratio
13. Economic Justification
Appendix I - ConversionFactors for Costs in Local Currency Table 1 - Correlation of Input Costs and Yields per Hectare Table 2 - IncrementalProduction Costs Table 3 - IncrementalFarm Labor Inputs Table 4 - Rate of Return Calculation
Implementation Schedule, Project Works Project Map
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Background
(i) The Government of Mali has requested IDA, the African Development Fund (ADF) and French aid (FAC) to finance a rice development project in the Niger flood plains around Mopti. The project will build on the on-going Mopti Rice Project (Credit 277-MLI), which will terminate in mid-1978.
(ii) Mali is one of the least developed countries in the world. Popula- tion is 6 million and per capita income about US$95. The economy, dependent on crop production (cotton, groundnuts, cereals) and animal husbandry, suffered severely from the droughts of the early seventies; in recent years, exports of groundnuts and cotton have increased considerably while the livestock subsector has not yet overcome the effects of the drought years. Production of food crops (coarse grains and rice) has responded vividly to better weather conditions and higher producer prices. Over the last few years, Mali has not been in need of cereals imports and has even exported modest amounts of coarse grains and rice to neighboring countries. Mali has a heavy deficit both in its national budget and in its balance of payments and no fundamental change is foreseen in this situation over the medium term future.
The First Mopti Rice Project
(iii) The First Mopti Rice Project, which became operational in 1972, aims at the improvement of rice cultivation conditions and techniques in the Niger flood plains. Main project components are the construction of polders (13,000 ha) along the Niger and Bani rivers, the rehabilitation of existing polders (18,000 ha), construction of offices, stores, workshops, etc. and technical assistance for the project authority, the Operation Riz Mopti (ORM). Total project cost was estimated at US$9.4 million at appraisal; the partici- pation of IDA was US$6.9 million, the participation of FAC 0.7 million. A supplementary IDA credit of US$2.6 million was approved in 1975 to offset the effects of the dollar devaluation and to finance changes in project design and certain cost overruns. FAC also increased its contribution by US$0.5 million.
(iv) Civil works were virtually completed in early 1977 but the drought years demonstrated the need for a revision of design standards which led to a reduction of the cultivable area from 31,000 ha to 26,000 ha. ORM's performance, satisfactory in other respects, needs to be improved for exten- sion work, applied research, farm machinery use and seed farm management. Yield increases have been attributable mainly to the rapid adoption of improved rice varieties while cultivation techniques, in particular weeding practices, have remained close to the traditional extensive style the farmers - ii - practised before joining the proje:zt. The 1976/77 campaign brought some en- couraging progress, however. The reduction in cultivable area and increase in project cost have been offset b7 a substantial increase in the economic price of rice and tLe project is eepected to show a rate of return close to the 14% estimated at appraisal. Tie project has a substantial impact on the region's economy, and demands "or land allocation far exceed the avail- able areas developed under Credit 277-NLI.
Description of the Mopti II Rice P::oject
(v) The project aims at a modest expansion of the area under cultiva- tion through construction of new p.lders; the improvement of rice cultivation conditions and techniques in the new polders as well as in the existing ones; and the strengthening of the projec.t authority ORM. At full development, it would reach a population of about 10,000 in an area with few alternative economic opportunities. The proje:t consist of:
- constructi.onof four polc!erswith a total area of 8,800 ha;
- some improvements of polcers developed under Credit 277-MLI;
- deep ploughing of the neu polders as well as of about 14,300 ha in existirng polders;
- construction of storage facilities for paddy, farm inputs and farm equipment, of wcrkshops, training centers, offices and staff houses;
- acquisition of farm machinery, civil works maintenance equipment, ferries, vehicles, workshop and office equipment;
- establishment of an adult literacy program for villages in the project area and an aidio-visual program to be used by extension services;
- applied agricultural reseairch;
- agricultural credit for fErtilizer and farm implements; and
- technical assistance for -project management, and ORM staff and operating costs to the extent that they are attributable to the expansion of the p:-oject area.
The project will also provide for arsistance to the Study Bureau of the Rural Works Department (RWD) in Bamako, c nsisting of an extension to existing offices, acquisition of equipment, (.nd funds for irrigation project studies. The project will begin in mid-1978 znd extend over 5 years.
Cost Estimates and Financing Plan
(vi) Total project cost including taxes is estimated at US$31.2 million of which the foreign exchange comporent would be US$19.0 million or 61%; - iii -
project cost net of taxes is estimated at US$26.3 million. Physical and price contingencies amount to 35% of base costs estimated in prices of December 1977.
(vii) The IDA credit would be for US$15.0 million and would finance 57% of project costs net of taxes. It would cover 59% of foreign exchange costs and 53% of local costs net of taxes. Mali will receive further assistance from FAC (US$2.0 million; joint financing with IDA) and ADF (US$6.0 million; parallel financing). A condition of effectiveness of the Credit is the ful- fillment of all conditions precedent to the initial disbursement of the FAC grant. The IDA credit would be made to Government, who would pass it on to ORM as a grant. Government would finance part of staff and operating ex- penditure, subsidies on farm inputs, and taxes evaluated at US$4.9 million. Without taxes, Government's contribution would be 5% of project cost. Farm- ers would contribute US$1.9 million for farm inputs. In order to expedite project implementation, a revolving fund of US$0.6 million will be set up at the Banque de Developpement du Mali for the prefinancing of project expenditure to be financed by IDA. Retroactive financing of up to US$70,000 would be provided for the extension to the building of the RWD Study Bureau, which will be constructed before signature of the Credit Agreement.
Procurement and Disbursement
(viii) Contracts for vehicles and equipment and for civil works and deep ploughing to be financed jointly by IDA and FAC would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding in accordance with IDA guidelines. Con- tracts for the construction of houses, offices, workshops and stores would be awarded on the basis of competitive bidding advertised locally in accord- ance with local procedures acceptable to IDA. Miscellaneous items of equip- ment and furniture up to a contract value of US$50,000 would be procured on the basis of local competitive bidding. For contracts of less than US$20,000 direct procurement on the basis of several quotations would be used. Items financed by ADF would be procured according to ADF procedures.
(ix) The IDA credit would be disbursed to cover civil works and deep ploughing not covered by the ADF credit, buildings, vehicles and equipment, engineering and supervision, technical assistance, assistance to RWD, agri- cultural credit and part of incremental staff and operating expenditure of ORM.
Organization and Management
(x) Except for the assistance to RWD, the project will be carried out by ORM. Technical assistance would be increased to its 1976 level of four professionals but the profile of technical assistance will be redefined to ensure maximum support for the critical areas of ORM activities, such as extension work, use of farm machinery, seed farm management and applied research.
(xi) The adult literacy program will be implemented by ORM with the support of the Direction Nationale de l'Alphabetisation Fonctionnelle et de la Linguistique Appliquee (DNAFLA). Agricultural research will be carried out - iv - by ORM with scientific guidance from the Institut d'Economie Rurale and the West Africa Rice Development Asscociation. The agricultural credit fund will be administered by ORM once responsibility for providing farmers with inputs and credit is transferred to that agency in the first half of 1978. Execution of civil works, deep ploughing and constrction of buildings will be supervised by the Rural Works Department (RED) which has worked out an agreement with ORM spelling out arrangements for precurement of equipment, hiring of personnel and schedules of disbursements to ORN to RWD. This agreement has been approved by IDA. Assistance to RAD will be implemented directly through the Ministry of Rural Development, of which RWD is a part.
Production, Yields, Markets
(xii) The project would lead to an incremental production of 34,000 tons of paddy, of which 15,000 tons would originate from the new polders and the remainder from existing polders that would be improved under the project. Yields would rise, on average, to 2.00 t/ha while without the project, yields would be 0.7 t/ha in traditional zultivation and about 1.8 t/ha in the Mopti I polders. The project would help to fill the supply gap projected for the early 'eighties; until that time, it would provide a desirable safety margin against shortfalls in domestic supplies that are likely to occur from time to time, with varying severity, because of poor rainfall and flood levels. Any remaining surplus that would not be absorbed by domestic demand could be accumulated for the reserve stock which Government plans to build up as a protection against future droughts. In consequence, the economic price of rice has been based on the import substitution price. The share of produc- tion marketed by official channels (45 percent) would be consumed in Bamako while the remainder would be home--consumedor sold through private trading channels.
Farmers' Benefits, ORM Revenue, Government Budget
(xiii) Farmers would benefit from the much higher security of flooding in the polders compared to cultivation under uncontrolled flooding. Farmers' income from rice cultivation woulc. rise from US$100 per family in traditional cultivation to US$370 in the most representative case and up to US$500 if fertilizer is used. Without the project, most farmers in the Mopti I project area would stagnate at incomes of about US$300. This projection is based on Government's assurance that the producer price of paddy will be increased from MF 45/kg to MF 50/kg in 1978 and will thereafter be periodically re- vised so as to provide sufficient incentive to farmers.
(xiv) Government agreed to gradually raise the development levy from presently 160 kg of paddy per ha to 240 kg/ha in 1982. With these levies and with statutory reimbursements from the rice marketing agency, ORM is expected to meet its recurrent expenditure including equipment renewal and to recover about 35% of investment.
(xv) Government would save important consumer subsidies on rice imports which would become necessary, without the project, towards 1983. The net v savings would amount to US$1.1 million annually at full development. If Government's net savings on subsidies are taken into account, 90% of total project cost would be recovered.
Economic Justification and Risk
(xvi) The economic rate of return of the project is estimated to be 18% over 25 years.
(xvii) The project's main risk is inherent in the system of controlled flooding which depends both on sufficient and timely rainfall and on sufficient and timely flooding. Although the flooding probability will be much enhanced as a consequence of the project, a residual uncertainity remains. This is the price to pay for an otherwise very economic production system. The sensitivity test shows that the rate of return would still be acceptable even if benefits were 20% lower than projected.
Recommendation
(xviii) With the assurances and condition indicated in Chapter VIII, the project is suitable for an IDA credit on standard terms of US$15.0 million equivalent to the Government of Mali. I IALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
I. INTRODUCTION
1.01 The Government of Mali has requested IDA assistance for the financ- ing of an extension to the on-going Mopti Rice Project (Credit 277-MLI) which is scheduled to terminate on May 31, 1978. The Mopti II Rice Project was pre- pared by the Institut d'Economie Rurale (IER) of the Ministry of Rural Devel- opment in Bamako with funds made available for this purpose under Credit 277- MLI and with the assistance of the Bank's Regional Mission in Western Africa (RMWA). The feasibility study prepared by IER was submitted in August 1975. It comprised an area of 40,000 ha; however, because of possible market limi- tations over the medium term, the project aims at an expansion of only 8,800 ha besides consolidation of areas developed under Credit 277-ELI and strength- ening of the project authority. It would benefit a population of 90,000 in an area with few alternative employment opportunities.
1.02 The project would be the sixth IDA credit to Malian agriculture. Progress of the five on-going projects is satisfactory. Implementation of the first Mopti Rice Project is discussed in paras. 3.01 - 3.12 below.
1.03 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission com- prising Messrs. R. Gusten and P. Streng (IDA), H. Boumendil and R. Chateau (Consultants), which visited Mali in November 1976.
II. BACKGROUND
A. General
2.01 Mali has a popula5ion of 6.0 million (1976) distributed over a large area (1.24 million km ) of which more than half is desert. Less than 25 percent of the territory receives more than 500 mm of rainfall in normal years and is suitable for crop production. About 75 percent of the population lives in this area; the remainder is concentrated in the Niger flood plains or consists of cattle-rearing nomads.
2.02 With a per capita income of US$95 (1975), Mali is one of the 25 least developed countries. Real growth of GDP averaged 3.7 percent annually in the four pre-drought years 1969-1972. As a consequence of the drought, GDP fell in 1973 and stagnated in 1974 but production recovered in the fol- lowing two years; for the period 1973-1976 which covers the drought and post- drought years, real growth of GDP again averaged 3.7 percent annually. Pop- ulation growth being officially estimated at 2.7 percent annually, this corresponds to an increase in GDP per capita of only 1 percent annually. - 2 -
2.03 While production and ex3orts, with the exception of cattle, reco- vered satisfactorily from the drolght years, the country's balance of pay- ment deficit gap widened as a consequence of international inflation and in 1976 was US$33 million. The budget deficit also has increased in recent years and was nearly US$21 million in 1975 and US$20 million in 1976. This persistent disequilibrium makes it difficult for Mali to make a significant contribution to the financing of development projects. Since no fundamental change can be anticipated for the next few years, it is imperative that agri- cultural development projects are financially as selfsufficient as possible.
B. The Rural Sector
2.04 About 90 percent of Mali's population depends for its livelihood on agriculture and allied pursuits, which accounted for 38 percent of GDP in 1975. Agriculture contributes half, animal husbandry two-fifths, and forestry and fisheries combined one tenth of the value added in the primary sector. Exports consist almost ertirely of raw or processed agricultural commodities and livestock. Cottorn,the single most important foreign exchange earner, accounts for more than 30 percent of the value of exports, which is nearly as much as the combined exyort proceeds from groundnuts and livestock, the other major export commodities.
2.05 There are some 2 millior,ha under permanent cultivation, 90% of which is rainfed, the rest irrigated. Rainfed cultivation is practiced on small family farms. About 80% of the 435,000 farms have 5 ha of land or less. About 90% of the area under rainfed cultivation is under cereal crops (millet and sorghum); most of the rest is allocated to cotton and ground- nuts, the main cash and export crops. Of the 200,000 ha under irrigated cultivation, some 100,000 ha are cultivated traditionally by unassisted farmers and the rest within "Operations de Developpement" (para. 2.09) where improved methods are applied. The oldest of these production schemes is the "Office du Niger", originally established in 1929 for the production of irri- gated cotton to supply the French textile industry; at present all irrigated lands in the Office du Niger (40,000 ha) are under rice save 1,300 hectares, which are under sugar cane. No cotton is presently grown under irrigation.
2.06 Until recently, development efforts were directed mostly at export crops while cereals, particularly millet and sorghum, suffered from compara- tive neglect. Adequate extension services were organized for cotton and groundnuts which were also provided with marketing facilities, fertilizers and other improved inputs. Only a small portion of the area under rainfed cereal crops benefited from similar development programs. Producer prices for export crops too were set at more remunerative levels than those for cereals. Past emphasis on cotton and groundnuts is reflected in production trends during recent years: Production of cereals declined from 1.1 million tons in 1967/68 to an average of 0.8 million tons ,luringthe drought years 1972/73 and 1973/74 while seed cotton output increased from 42,000 to 65,000 tons and the ground- nut crop fell slightly from 118,000 tons to 104,000 tons. -3 -
2.07 Agriculturalproduction increased substantiallyover the last three years as a result of good rainfall and higher producer prices for both cash and food crops. Total rainfall was above average in 1974/75, average in 1975/76 and about average, but with an unfavorable distribu- tion, in 1976/77. Production of cereals, includingpaddy, is estimated to have risen to 1.15 million tons in 1974/75 and 1.2 million in 1975/76 and 1976/77. Cotton and groundnut crops in 1975/76 reached the unprece- dented level of 103,000and 200,000 tons, respectively. Cotton production in 1976/77 maintained the preceding year's level in spite of less favorable weather conditions while groundnut production fell by some 15% as a conse- quence of the decreasing attractivenessof the official producer price.
2.08 Mali's livestock population (some 5.5 million cattle and 11 million sheep and goats in the early seventies) was reduced by 15-20 percent as a consequenceof the drought years of 1972/73 and 1973/74. Losses were most severe in the eastern part of the country. Herds are being rebuilt but exports are not expected to reach pre-drought levels before the mid- eighties.
C. Institutionsin Agriculture
2.09 Agriculture is the responsibilityof the Ministry of Rural Devel- opment. Since 1969, the Ministry has delegated important functions to the so-called Operations de Developpement,institutions charged with agricul- tural development in specific regions and enjoying a considerableamount of financial and managerial autonomy. They distribute inputs to farmers and provide extension services, training and credit as well as marketing services for export crops and part of the food crops. Operations may be crop-specific, as in the case of rice or cattle, or deal with all major crops grown in a region. In the case of crop-specificOperations, there may be several Opera- tions for the same crop, each of them responsible for a certain area.
2.10 Rice development is mainly in the hands of the Operation Riz Segou (financedby EDF), the Operation Riz Mopti (financedby IDA) and the Office du Niger, which is not an Operation but enjoys an even larger degree of autonomy. Minor rice developmentsare under way in the IDA-financedMali Sud agricultural project and the USAID-financed Action Riz-Sorgho in the 6th Region (Gao).
2.11 Marketing of cereals is the responsibilityof OPAM (Office des Produits Agricoles du Mali) which has the monopoly for domestic and foreign trade with cereals. However, OPAM is not able to enforce its monopoly in the domestic market; it handles most of the marketed quantity of rice but only a fraction of the marketed surplus of coarse grains. Until 1974, offi- cial producer prices were well below the free market price; as a consequence, OPAMpurchased only marginal quantities of coarse grains and most of the rice originating in the Office du Niger, where farmers cannot escape the official -4- marketing channel. Private trader, are officiallybanned from wholesaling cereals but have been tolerated recently as attempts to eliminate them have failed. OPAM buys rice from the Of-ficedu Niger and the Operations according to price schedules establishedannually in a negotiationprocess between the rice producing entities and Governmient agencies. These schedules ("baremes") specify the charges for collection, bagging, losses, and milling which are reimbursed to the selling entity.
2.12 Supply of farm inputs anc farm equipment is the responsibilityof SCAER (Societe de Credit Agricole et d'EquipementRural). Both annual inputs and equipment have been sold at subsidizedprices, the subsidy being financed mainly from levies on cotton and groundnuts exports. As indicated by its name, SCAER also provides agriculturalcredit for the purchase of farm equip- ment, but only to farmers covered by the activities of Operations de Devel- oppement. SCAER does not maintain field offices but relies on the Operations for the distributionof inputs, the sale of equipmentand the recovery of credit extended. The Operations perceive a percentage of the turnover as a fee. The steep rise in the price of farm implements over the last few years forced SCAER to end subsidizationof equipment sales in 1976 and to reduce subsidies on annual inputs such as fertilizer. Because of budgetary diffi- culties, Government considers further reducing and eventually eliminating subsidies on farm inputs.
2.13 Because of SCAER's difficulties,in recent years, in carrying out the functions assigned to it, Government envisages transferringresponsibil- ity for the supply of inputs and equipment to the individual Operations de Developpement before the 1978/79 caripaign. The Association has been asked to advised Government on this issue and on related matters such as agricul- tural credit and the restructuringof output and input prices.
0- 2.14 Agricultural research in k[ali is coordinated by the Institut d' Economie Rurale of the Ministry of Rural Development. Most agricultural research is carried out by French research institutes organized in the Groupement d'Etudes et de Recherches pour le Developpement de l'Agronomie Tropicale (GERDAT). Rice research was, until 1976, the responsibility of the Institut de RecherchesAgronomiques Tropicales et de Cultures Vivrieres (IRAT),which operated two research stations for floating rice and non-floatingrice, respectively. As from 1976, the West Africa Rice Development Association (WARDA) has assumed responsibility for research on floating rice varieties.
D. Development Potential and Development Objectives
2.15 In terms of domestic resources spent per unit of foreign exchange earned or saved, Mali has a clear comnparative advantage in the production of cattle, cotton, and groundnuts (in that order). Compared to other Sahelian countries, Mali has a well above ave:-age endowment of cultivable land with more than 800 mm of rainfall (90 percent probability) where rainfed cotton and -5-
groundnuts can be grown under satisfactoryconditions, and nearly two thirds of the country's area outside the Sahara is suitable for animal husbandry of varying intensity. Foodcrops like millet and sorghum can also be grown with a reasonable degree of security in the zone with more than 800 mm of rainfall which covers 5.5 million hectares of cultivable land.
2.16 The Government of Mali has decided to give increased attention to the promotion of food crops in order to achieve self-sufficiencynot only in normal years but also in years of insufficientrainfall. The current Five Year Plan (1974-1978)reflects the Government'sdetermination to prevent a recurrence of the food shortage experiencedin 1972/73 and 1973/74. The plan's development objectiveswith regard to agricultureare:
- to achieve self-sufficiencyin food production;
- to generate adequate supplies of agriculturalraw materials for industrialprocessing; and
- to ensure increasingsurpluses of primary products for exports.
Food crops are to take first place in public investment. The emphasis on protecting producers and consumers against climatichazards has resulted in a strong bias towards irrigated agriculturei.e. rice production: not less than 85 percent of total allocationsfor food production are set aside for rice and only 15 percent for millet and sorghum, by far the country'smost important food crop (80 percent of cereal consumption).
2.17 The plan's emphasis on food production projects follows from the decision that security of food supplies ranks higher than optimal allocation of resourcesfrom a strict domestic resource cost point of view. However, the long-termrice requirementshave been overestimated(para. 2.21).
E. Cereals Consumptionand Production
2.18 Mali produces, and consumes, 1.1 - 1.2 million tons of cereals (includingseed requirementsand losses) in years of normal rainfall,of which about 80 percent are millet and sorghum, about 10 percent rice, and the remaindermaize and wheat. Millet, sorghum and maize are grown exclu- sively under rainfed conditions. Except for drought years, Mali is self- sufficient in these staple crops. Wheat requirements (12,000 tons of flour annually) are now covered by imports, but wheat cultivationis under way, on an experimentalbasis, in the Zone Lacustre in the Niger Delta.
2.19 Most of the country's one million tons of coarse grains produced in normal years are home-consumed by growers or exchanged at the local level. About 15 percent are estimated to enter the market which is shared by OPAM and private traders. Per capita consumptionof coarse grains is 150-160 kg -6-
on average, but only about half that amount among nomads, rice growers, and the higher income groups in the few major towns. The last two groups sub- stitute rice for coarse grains (btLtmostly only to the extent of one meal out of two) while the nomads complementmillet by milk products.
2.20 Rice consumption is estimated at 120,000 tons in 1976. Rice costs more than twice as much as millet or sorghum and is still a luxury or semi- luxury for a large part of Mali's low-incomepopulation. Overall per capita consumptionhas remained stable at a level of 20 kg/year over the last 15 years; in most of the country, however, annual consumptionis in the range of only 3 - 5 kg/head, i.e. at the same level as in neighboringUpper Volta and Niger, countrieswith comparalleper capita income levels but without significantdomestic rice production. Rice consumptionand production are further discussed at Annex 1.
2.21 The Five Year Plan projects an increase in per capita consumption of rice from the pre-drought level of 20 kg to 28 kg in 1978, 48 kg in 1983, and 79 kg in 1990. The implicit annual growth rate of 8 percent (per capita) is incompatiblewith the increases in real income that appear possible in Mali over this horizon, and with accepted orders of magnitude of income elasticityof demand. Per capita rice consumptionmay be expected to grow by not more than 2 percent annually, and total rice consumption,consequently, by less than 5 percent annually. This corresponds to some 6,000 tons of rice annually at the 1976 level of consumption.
2.22 Paddy productionhas increasedsteeply in the post-droughtyears as the consequenceof three factors:
- some 55,000 ha of polders have been developedby the Operation Riz Segou and Operation Riz Mopti; these polders, vulnerable to law river water levels, have come into full productioa for the first time in the post-drought year 1974/75;
- the Office du Niger has achieved an increase in effi- ciency and output;
- finally, the 1974 increase in the producer price by 60 percent (from MF 25 tn MF 40 per kg of paddy) in- duced farmers to expand sowings and increase their efforts.
2.23 As a consequence,Mali reached self-sufficiencyin 1975/76and 1976/77 and even produced a surplus estimated at 20-25,000 tons of paddy in each of these years. Most of this surplus could be disposed of in 1977 when a drought in the Sudano-Guinean zone provided an opportunity to export Malian rice, and even paddy, to Ivory Coast and Togo.
2.24 Without the proposed pro;ject,a deficit in domestic paddy production is projected to emerge not later than 1982, well before the project would have reached full production; in the short run, Mali could remain self-sufficient in rice and, under continuouslyfavorable conditions,even produce a marginal -7- surplus. This is not likely to happen, however, because of the various contingencies surrounding this hypothesis:
- fluctuations in the unstable Malian weather condi- tions may cause shortfalls in production well before the early eighties and are almost certain to do so at least in one or several years;
- incremental production may be less than projected due to possible delays in the implementation of ongoing projects; and
- projected production trends are based on the hypothesis that Government keeps official producer prices at a level which maintains farmers' economic incentive.
Thus, while the proposed project would help to fill the gap in domestic supplies forecast for the early 'eighties, it would, at the same time, provide a desirable safeguard against production shortfalls in the near future. Market prospects for rice are further discussed at Chapter VI B.
III. THE MOPTI I RICE PROJECT
A. The Project Area
3.01 The project is in the Niger flood plains which extend over more than 500 km with widths varying between 150 km and 200 km. Flood levels are sufficiently shallow to allow cultivation of submerged rice. Farmers culti- vate about 2 ha of rice and on average 1.4 ha of rainfed land for millet and some secondary crops. About 100,000 ha of paddy are estimated to be culti- vated by traditional extensive methods in the flood plains. A description of the project area is at Annex 2, and a description of cultivation methods under uncontrolled and controlled flooding at Annex 3.
B. Project Description
3.02 The first Mopti Rice Project aims at the increase of rice produc- tion through the construction and rehabilitation of polders along the Bani and Niger rivers, and at the improvement of rice cultivation techniques through the introduction of successive packages of improved inputs, imple- ments and practices. At appraisal the project was expected to cover 31,100 ha and to reach 7,300 farm families. For details of project content and project execution, see Annex 4.
3.03 At appraisal, total project cost including taxes was estimated to be US$9.4 million; the IDA contribution was US$6.9 million while French aid (FAC) financed technical assistance (US$0.7 million) provided by consultants - 8 -
(SCET International of France). A supplementary IDA credit of US$2.6 mil- lion was ma¢_ n 1975 to cov :r tuieeffects of the dollar devaluation, minor changes in project design and cost increases. FAC also increased its con- tribution by US$0.5 million.
3.04 The project is executed ly the Operation Riz Mopti, an Operation de Developpement (para. 2.09) whicl. has its headquarters in Sevare near Mopti. Total staff was 318 in 1977. Project implementation started on June 1, 1972. The project terminates on May 31, 1978.
C. Experiences and Conclusions
3.05 During its initial two yfars, the project was heavily affected by the severe drought in the Sahel. i.sa consequence of the experience of the drought years, the net cultivable E.reaof each polder was redefined in order to arrive at a probability of inun(ation of 0.95; this resulted in a reduc- tion of the project area from 31,1(0 ha to 26,200 ha, or by 15%. In the post-drought years, development of cultivated area was close to revised appraisal estimates. Yields were in line with appraisal estimates but this is only due to the fact that adoptJon of improved rice varieties has been universal and much ahead of projections. In other respects, cultivation techniques have been stagnant; thiE applies in particular to weeding prac- tices. This has caused infestatior of several polders with wild rice. Reclamation by ORM and individual farmers has been initiated over the last 2 years.
3.06 Average holdings are only 2.4 ha against 4.0 ha estimated at appraisal. With their elementary equipment, most farmers cannot cope with larger areas. A corollary of this development is that the number of par- ticipating families by far exceeds the number anticipated at appraisal (nearly 9,000 in 1976/77 against 7,300 estimated by the Appraisal Report at full development).
3.07 An unexpected development was the high percentage of non-farmers among the participants (Table 4), particularly in the polders close to the town of Mopti. No clear-cut pattern emerges regarding the performance of these civil servants, traders, artisans, etc. but the 1976/77 campaign has shown that these holdings experience .acute labor bottlenecks at harvesting as most or all work is done by hired labor. A high percentage of non-farmers is also undesirable from the point of view of income distribution since one of the main objectives of the project was to provide economic opportunities for farmers and not to improve the conditions of those who already have means of livelihood that are generally above the regional average. Consequently, assurances were obtained at negotiations that farmers will have priority in land allocations under the project.
3.08 While the average farm size (2.4 ha) is well below appraisal esti- mate (4 ha), it appears that a small percentage of participants occupy inor- dinately large holdings - up to more than 20 ha (Table 5). While the total - 9 - percentage of farmers with holdings exceeding 5 ha is moderate (6%), the area occupied by these large farms is quite substantial (21%, or more than 4,500 ha). Although no data are availablewhich allow to correlateyields to farm size it is thought that these holdings may be a major factor con- tributing to the stagnation of cultivation techniques and yields in 1975/76. Assurances were obtained, therefore, at negotiationsthat in the new polders to be developed not more than 2 ha would be allotted per active male family member.
3.09 The problems encounteredby the first Mopti Rice Project are partly inevitable learning costs:
- The shortcomingsof the original design of polders (Annex 3) are a case in point. Operation of the polders in the first years showed that the design has been excessively cost-savingand that without a higher degree of flooding probability farmers cannot be induced to incur monetary costs for the inputs and equipment required for higher yields.
- The stagnation in cultivation techniques can partly be attributed to the discouragingeffect of the two drought years and its retarding influence on extensionwork. The particular risk associatedwith cultivationunder uncon- trolled and even controlled flooding is a further factor contributingto slow progress in cultivation techniques involving cash outlays.
- However, the mediocre results must also be ascribed to weaknessesin ORM's organizationof extensionwork. The ratio of extensionworkers to farmers is fully sufficient but extension staff is tied up to a considerabledegree in statisticalwork and, in a crucial period of the agri- cultural year, in assisting marketing operations.
- The project management has failed to establish a dialogue with farmers and relies on the passing down of directives explained in the classroom to extension staff, and handed on by these. No demonstrationplots, operated by ORM or by farmers, have been initiated. The mass of participating farmers remains largely unstructured,and no channels were opened by which farmers' reactions and reservationscan be collected and used. (An Evaluation Unit was created in early 1977 only).
3.10 ORM's presently high staff and operating cost per ha or per ton is not immediatelysignificant because the project has not yet reached full development. However, when the project reaches full development these costs will still be equivalent to nearly 400 kg of paddy per ha. Part of these costs will be covered by remunerationsfor services rendered to farmers - 10 -
(threshing, line-sowing, sale of improved seed) or to OPAM (reimbursement for collection and transport of paddy) but an increase of the development levies above the level envisaged at appraisal (180 kg of paddy per ha at full development) will be necessary. Even so, ORMwill be able to cover only recurrent cost and equipment renewal and a minor part of initial capital outlay. In view of these circumstances, the Development Credit Agreement would be amended to provide that, rather than aiming at recovery of all capital and recurrent costs, levies should be sufficiently high to ensure coverage of recurrent expenditure including equipment renewal, and of capi- tal costs to the extent permitted by economic conditions (producer price, input prices, yields, etc.).
3.11 The rate of return of the project is projected to be close to the 14% estimated at appraisal in 1972, increases in costs and reductions in cultivable area having been offset by the considerable increase in the economic price of paddy since the project's beginning.
3.12 Rice cultivation under controlled flooding is a unique low-cost rice production system which in West Africa can be developed on a large scale only in Mali. This resource deserves to be further developed in spite of the technical problems encountered over the last few years and the risk inherent in this type of cultivation. The encouraging results of the 1976/77 campaign justify the expectation that a new project, building on the first Mopti Rice project, could reap the benefits cf the learning costs paid.
IV. THE PROJECT
A. Description
4.01 The project aims at a moderate expansion in the cultivated area through the construction of new polders, and at the consolidation of the ex- isting project through some supplementary investments and through a strength- ening of the project authority ORM. At full development, it would reach a population of about 90,000 (13,000 families) in an area with few alternative economic opportunities. The project consists of:
- construction of four polders with a total area of 8,800 ha;
- improvements to polders developed under Credit 277-MLI;
- deep ploughing of the new polders as well as of 14,285 ha in polders constructed under Credit 277-MLI or being improved with financing provided by the African Development Fund (ADF); - 11 -
constructionof storage facilitiesfor paddy, farm inputs and farm equipment, of workshops, offices and staff houses, and training centers;
acquisitionof farm machinery, civil works maintenance equipment, vehicles, two ferries, workshop and office equipment;
establishmentof an adult literacy program for villages in the project area and an audio-visualprogram to be used by extension services;
- an applied agriculturalresearch program;
- agriculturalcredit for the purchase of fertilizer and farm implements;
- technical assistance for project management, and ORM staff and operating costs during the project period to the extent that they are attributable to the expansion of the project area.
4.02 The project also provides for assistance to the Study Bureau of the Rural Works Department in Bamako, consisting of an extension to existing offices, acquisitionof equipment, travel scholarshipsand funds for the execution of studies for irrigationprojects which may be included in a future IDA-financedproject.
4.03 The project will begin in mid-1978 and would extend over 5 years.
B. Detailed Features
Constructionof New Polders
4.04 Four new polders will be developed on the right bank of the Bani river close to ORM headquarters, i.e.
- Saremala (3,120 ha) and Torokoro (525 ha) adjacent to the Soufouroulayepolder which is part of the Mopti I project (see Map); constructionof the Saremala polder would improve the flooding and drainage of the Soufouroulayepolder (4,900 ha);
- Ouro-Nema (4,105 ha) and Tiroguel (1,050 ha) to the north of the existing polders; here again, construc- tion of the Ouro-Nema polder would improve hydraulic conditions in the adjacent Diambacouroupolder (570 ha) because the new irrigationstructures would control a local river which at present floods Diambacourou. - 12 -
The civil works include protectiondikes, intake structures,irri- gation and drainage channels (Annex 5, Table 1).
Improvementof Mopti I Polders
4.05 Consolidationof existing polders would include the widening and deepening of intake channels in four polders, the conversionof major intake structures in four polders from regulationplanks to metal gates, the digging of secondary channels in one polder, the constructionof an access road to one polder, and the covering of two dikes with a laterite surface to assure all-weatheraccess to control structuresand to increase durability (Annex 5, Table 1). The necessity of these additionalworks has become apparent in the course of the first few years of operating these polders. Besides improved cultivationconditions, the benefits would include reduced exposure to schistosomiasisdue to better drainage. Consolidationof the Mopti I polders would account for 19 percent of civil works costs.
Deep Ploughing
4.06 Deep ploughing would be carried out to destroy existing bush vegetation. In addition to the 8,800 ha of the four new polders, some 10,200 ha of the Mopti I polders and two other existing polders, being improved with ADF financing (4,085 '-ia),would be covered by this operation (Annex 5, Table 2). In the existing polders, deep ploughing is mainly required to overcome the wild rice infestationwhich has developed over the last few years (para 3.05).
Constructionof Stores, Workshops, Offices and Houses
4.07 The following buildings will be constructedduring the project period:
- 13 sheds for farm inputs and SCAER equipment;
- 28 sheds for ORM farm machinery;
- 2 auxiliary workshops; 2 - some 4,500 m of paddy stores;
- 16 houses for heads of extension services in each polder and for the head oi-the seed farm, and 1 office in Mopti Nord polder;
- two houses for technical assistants;
- two training centers, at Mopti and Tenenkou, respectively;
- 1 house with office and store for an ORM representa- tive in Bamako who will act as liaison to the admin- istration and as expeditor for Mopti-bound shipments.
Full details are at Annex 5, Table :3. - 13 -
Farm Machinery and Vehicles
4.08 While ORM farm machinery is presently underutilized, demands on tractor, seeder and thresher services are expected to increase as areas, production and, in particular, marketed production increase. Additional equipment will be required by the middle of the project period. The follow- ing machinery would be purchased under the project.
- 30 tractors with trailer,
- 6 trucks,
- 42 mechanical threshers,
- 174 seeders for line-sowing.
Assurances were obtained at negotiations that additional farm machinery will be procured only when the Association is satisfied that the existing machinery is adequately utilized. In addition, five small vehicles would be purchased for the heads of the four new polders and for the Bougoula polder being re- habilitated, and three vehicles for ORM headquarters. Two ferries will be procured to ensure better communications with polders on the left bank of the Bani and Niger rivers. (For details see Annex 7, Table 6.)
Civil Works Maintenance Equipment
4.09 Very little equipment for the maintenance of dikes and channels is available at ORM. Maintenance was not a high priority in the first years after completion of works but is becoming increasingly important. Under the project, a complete unit with earthmoving, compacting and transport equipment (Annex 7, Table 6) would be acquired.
Workshop and Office Equipment; Furniture
4.10 The Sevare workshop would receive additional equipment. The auxi- liary workshops for light repairs, located in the more distant polders of Sofara and Tenenkou, would also receive electric generators and equipment. The offices and houses to be built under the project (para. 4.07) would be equipped with office machinery and furniture (Annex 7, Table 6).
Adult Literacy Campaign and Audio-Visual Program
4.11 Theoretically, 38 adult literacy centers exist in the project area but only a few are operative because the regional branch of the Direction Nationale de l'Alphabetisation Fonctionelle et de Linguistique Appliquee (DNAFLA) is short of funds. In order to reanimate adult literacy courses, the project would set up, within ORM, an Adult Literacy Unit which would organize 220 adult literacy courses in the project area. Instruction would be provided by literate volunteers from among the local population. For details see Annex 5, Appendix I. - 14 -
4.12 The project would also provide extension staff with supplementary means for educating farmers; for this purpose photographic and reproductive equipment, tape recorders, a 4 wheel drive vehicle, electric generators and operating costs for an audio-visual program unit at ORM headquarters would be financed by the project.
Applied Agricultural Research
4.13 The project would finance an applied agricultural research program consisting of field trials of new varieties, development of optimal farm types and of optimal cultivation techniques. Details are at Appendix II of Annex 5.
Agricultural Credit
4.14 An agricultural credit fund will be provided to ORM for the supply of fertilizer and equipment to project farmers. Oxen, another major item of on-farm investment, are habitually procured by farmers directly from cattle- traders and would not be covered by the credit program. Details are at Appendix III of Annex 5.
Assistance to the Study Bureau of the RWD
4.15 The Rural Works Department (RWD) belongs to the Ministry of Rural Development. It has been assisted by IDA, on a modest scale, within the framework of the Drought Relief Fund Project (Credit 443-MLI). The assis- tance proposed now will consist of an extension to the Study Bureau offices, some equipment and documentation, travel scholarships, and funds for irriga- tion project studies. Details are at Annex 6.
C. Organization and Management
4.16 Except for the assistance to RWD (para. 4.15), the project will be implemented by the Operation Riz Mopti (ORM). It is expected that staff at headquarters remains constant except for a small program unit for audio- visual aids and the adult literacy unit. Additional staff would be required for civil works maintenance, operation of additional tractors and farm equip- ment, and extension in the new polders. Part of the extension staff require- ments in the new polders would be covered, however, through a reduction of the density of extension staff in the existing polders. 30% of total staff cost (excluding technical assistance) and of operating expenditure would be financed under the project; this proportion has been determined on the basis of the increase in cultivable area that can be attributed to the proposed project.
4.17 Technical assistance for ORM would return to its 1976 level of 4 experts. However, the professional profile of technical assistants will be redefined to ensure maximum support for the critical areas of ORM activities, i.e. - 15 -
extensionwork;
organizationof farm machinery use;
management of the seed farm; and
- supervisionof applied agriculturalresearch and of the evaluation unit.
Accordingly, the following specialistswill be employed:
- one extension specialist (5 years);
- one agriculturaleconomist (2-3 years);
- one workshop manager (5 years); and
- one accountant (4 years).
Terms of reference are at Annex 5, Appendix IV.
4.18 The adult literacy program would be fully integrated in ORM. A Coordinator,appointed and paid by DNAFLA, would be responsiblefor imple- menting the program under the authority of the Director of ORM; he would supervise ultimately 9 heads of Zones d'Alphabetisation Fonctionnelle (ZAF) who would set up the centers and be responsiblefor the training of volunteer instructors. DNAFLA would assist in curriculum developmentand would monitor and evaluate results half way through the project period and at its end.
4.19 The agriculturalcredit fund will be made available to ORM once responsibilityfor supplying farmers with inputs and equipment is trans- ferred from SCAER to ORM (para. 2.13). ORM is already acting as agent for SCAER in all matters pertaining to credit made available to project farmers and should, in consequence,have no difficulty in assuming full responsibil- ity for the credit program. Assurances were obtained at negotiationsthat subsidies included in fertilizer and equipment supplied by ORM to farmers in the project area would be at the charge of Government.
4.20 The agricultural research program will be carried out by ORM; the agriculturaleconomist to be employed under technicalassistance (para. 4.17) would supervise the program. Scientificguidance and control would be pro- vided by IER as well as by WARDA, which operates the rice research station in the project area.
4.21 Most of the paddy produced by ORM would be milled at the Sevare rice-mill (capacity15,000 tons of paddy); paddy from the Mopti I polders Dia and Tenenkou (6,400 ha) would be milled at Diafarabe. The capacity of the Chinese-builtmill in Sevare is expected to be fully used by ORM production by 1981. Assuranceswere obtained at negotiationsthat Governmentwill take action to ensure that rice-millingcapacity in the project area will be ex- panded in line with the increase in paddy production. - 16 -
4.22 Execution of civil works under the project will be supervised by the Rural Works Department of the Ministry of Rural Development which has satisfactorily exercised this function for the first Mopti Rice Project. The Rural Works Division of ORMwould be responsible for maintenance of polders and the operation of floodirLg and drainage structures.
4.23 The project component "Assistance to the Rural Works Department" will be carried out by the Ministry of Rural Development, of which the Rural Works Department is a part.
D. EnvirotLment and Health
4.24 The first Mopti Rice ProjEct having been in operation for 5 years without noticeable effects on its natural environment,no problems are fore- seen in this respect for the proposetdsecond project.
4.25 Although no survey of disease prevalence attributable to the proj- ect has been conducted, reports of public health officials indicate that there has been no demonstrated negative impact on the prevalence of water- associated diseases such as schistoEomiasis. Malaria is the key health problem in the project area with an estimated 80% of the population below 30 years of age infected. The prevalence of diarrheal diseases, including cholera, amebiasis and salmonellosis, and of urinary schistosomiasis is also high. The Association is exploring the possibilities of addressing Malian health problems within a broader framework.
V. PROJECT COSTS AND FINANCING
A. Project Costs
5.01 Project costs including taxes are estimated at MF 15,293 million (US$31.2million) of which the foreign exchange componentwould be MF 9,307 million (US$19.0million) or 61% of total costs. Project costs net of taxes are estimated at MF 12,873 million (US$26.3million). Project costs are detailed in Annex 7 and summarized below. - 17 -
Foreign MF Million US$ Million Exchange Local /1 Foreign Total Local /1 Foreign Total %
Civil Works 1,883 2,943 4,826 3.9 6.0 9.9 61 Deep Ploughing 556 907 1,463 1.1 1.9 3.0 62 Buildings 470 253 723 1.0 0.5 1.5 35 Engineeringand Supervision 98 141 239 0.2 0.3 0.5 59 Vehicles and Equipment 240 850 1,090 0.5 1.7 2.2 78 Incremental Staff and Op. Cost /2 553 300 853 1.1 0.6 1.7 35 Technical Assistance - 647 647 - 1.3 1.3 100 On-Farm Investment 460 521 981 0.9 1.1 2.0 53 Subtotal Mopti II Rice Project 4,260 6,562 10,822 8.7 13.4 22.1 61 Assistance to RWD 182 310 492 0.4 0.6 1.0 63 Total Base Cost 4,442 6,872 11,314 9.1 14.0 23.1 61 Physical Contin- gencies (8.8%) 401 595 996 0.8 1.2 2.0 60 Expected Price Increases (26.4%) 1,153 1,840 2,983 2.3 3.8 6.1 62 Total Expected Project Cost 5,986 9,307 15,293 12.2 19.0 31.2 61
/1 Including taxes.
/2 Including adult literacy campaign, audio-visualprogram and agricultural research.
5.02 Cost estimateswere prepared by the Rural Works Department (RWD) of the Ministry of Rural Development and the Institut d'Economie Rurale (IER) and are based on quantities of work derived from detailed designs and unit costs determined on the basis of similar works carried out over the last few years in the Mopti and Segou areas. Base costs for staff, technicalassistance and operating expenditurewere derived from the ORM budget for 1977. Staff and operating expenditure (excludingequipment renewal) have been included to the extent that they are attributableto the increase in cultivated area brought about by the project compared to the situation without the project. This share is 30% of the area to be cul- tivatedwith the project. Details are at Annex 7, Tables 8 and 9. Costs of on-farm investmentwere derived from SCAER 1976 import prices and from the adoption rates shown in Annex 9, Table 3.
5.03 Physical contingenciesare 15% for civil works, 10% for operating costs, the adult literacy component, agriculturalresearch, agricultural - 18 -
credit, and on-farm investment, and 5% for buildings, vehicles and equipment, and assistance to RWD. Base costs expressed in December 1977 prices were increased at the following annually compounded rates: for equipment, vehi- cles, engineering and supervision, the adult literacy component, on-farm investment, agricultural credit, and assistance to RWD 7.5 percent in 1978 and 1979, and 7.0 percent thereafter; for civil works, deep ploughing, build- ings, operating costs, agricultural research, and technical assistance 9.0 percent in 1978 and 1979 and 8.0 percent thereafter; for local staff, 4.5 percent in 1978 and 1979 and 4.0 percent thereafter (Annex 7, Table 12).
B. Financing
5.04 Besides the IDA credit, the project will receive financial assis- tance from the African Development Fund (ADF) and French aid (FAC). ADF, in accordance with its general policy, has chosen parallel financing while FAC has expressed interest in joint financing with IDA. The proposed financing of the project is summarized below.
Total Cost Net of Taxes US$ Million % US$ Million X
IDA 15.0 48 15.0 57 FAC 2.0 6 2.0 8 ADF 6.0 19 6.0 23 Government 6.3 20 1.3 5 Farmers 1.9 6 1.9 7 Total 31.2 100 1/ 26.3 1/ 100
1/ Figures do not add up to total due to rounding.
A condition of effectiveness of the Credit is the fulfillment of all condi- tions precedent to the initial disbursement of the FAC grant.
5.05 The proposed IDA credit of US$15.0 million would finance 57% of project costs net of taxes. The credit would cover 59% of foreign ex- change costs (US$11.2 million) and 53% of local costs net of taxes (US$3.8 million).
5.06 IDA and FAC would jointly finance (in a proportion of 9:1) the net of tax costs of the following project components: civil works and deep ploughing except for those parts that would be financed by ADF (para. 5.07); buildings; vehicles and equipment; technical assistance; and assistance to RWD. FAC would finance the net of tax cost of the adult literacy campaign, the audio-visual program and the applied agricultural research program while IDA would finance the net of tax costs of engineering and supervision, agri- cultural credit, and 50% of incremental staff and operating expenditure of ORM (Annex 8, Table 1). - 19 -
5.07 For parallel financing by ADF the following easily separable project components have been selected:
- development of the two polders of Ouro-Nema and Tiroguel (4,105 ha and 1,050 ha, respectively); and
- deep ploughing of these two polders as well as of the polders Bougoula (2,085 ha) and Sarantomo- Syn II (2,000 ha); the latter two are now being developed by ADF under separate financing.
5.08 Government would finance half of incremental staff and operating costs and the subsidies on farm inputs as well as taxes estimated at 16% of total costs (Table 8.1). Government's contribution net of taxes would be 5%.
5.09 The IDA credit of US$15.0 million would be made to Government and passed on by Government to ORM as a grant since ORM, at prevailing producer prices, is unable to service the credit (para. 3.10).
5.10 It is understood that FAC's contribution would be a grant and ADF's contribution a loan on IDA terms.
5.11 In order to further the expeditious execution of the project and to avoid the delays experienced during the implementation of Credit 277-MLI because of Government's inability to pre-finance reimbursable expenditures, IDA will finance a revolving fund of MF 294 million (US$0.6 million) to be used for the pre-financing of project expenditures financed by IDA. The revolving fund would be held by the Banque de Developpement du Mali (BDM) under the same type of agreement as used for the Drought Relief Fund (Credit 443-MLI). The co-lenders have been encouraged to make similar arrangements.
5.12 The extension to the building of the RWD Study Bureau (para. 4.14) will be constructedabout 3 months before the expected date of signature of the Credit Agreement. Retroactive financing of up to US$70,000 would be pro- vided for this purpose.
C. Procurement
5.13 Contracts for vehicles and equipment (US$2.2 million) as well as for civil works (US$5.5 m.) and deep ploughing (US$1.5 m.) to be financed jointly by IDA and FAC would be awarded on the basis of international compe- titive bidding in accordance with IDA guidelines. Contracts for the con- struction of houses, offices, workshops and stores (US$1.4 m.) would be awarded on the basis of competitive bidding advertised locally in accord- ance with local procedures acceptable to IDA. Bidding for small lots, rather than for all construction works, would be permitted. Miscellaneous - 20 - items of equipment and furniture up to a contract value of US$50,000 would be procured on the basis of local competitivebidding according to procedures acceptable to IDA. For contracts of less than US$20,000 direct procurement on the basis of several quotationswould be acceptable.Domestically manufac- tured goods would be allowed a preference of 15%, or the level of import duties, whichever is lower.
5.14 Detailed engineeringand supervisionwould be the responsibility of RWDwhich may, if required, hire additional competent and experienced staff. Arrangements regarding procurement of equipment, hiring of personnel and schedules of payments to RWDhave been laid down in an agreement between ORMand RWDwhich has been approved by IDA.
D. Disbursement
5.15 The proceeds of the proposed IDA credit would be disbursed to cover the following (in % of cost neat of taxes):
(a) 90% of total cost of civiL works, excluding the items to be financed by ADF (US$4.95 Taillion);
(b) 90% of total cost of deep ploughing, excluding the items to be financed by ADF (US$1.35million);
(c) 90% of total cost of buildings (US$1.26million);
(d) 90% of total cost of vehicles and equipment (US$1.98million);
(e) 90% of cost of technical assistance for ORM (US$1.26million);
(f) 90% of total cost of assistance to RWD (US$0.90million);
(g) 100% of cost of engineerirLgand supervision (US$0.50million);
(h) 100% of cost of agriculturalcredit (US$0.45million); and
(i) 15% of staff and operating cost of ORM (US$0.70million), which corresponds to 50% of incrementalstaff and operating expendi- ture.
US$1.65 million remain unallocated. An estimated schedule of disbursement is at Annex 8, Table 2.
5.16 Disbursement requests against items a, b, c, d, e, f and g in the preceding paragraph would be fully documented. Disbursementsagainst items h and i would be against certified statements of expenditure.Funds for project studies, included in item f, would be disbursed against statements of expendi- ture for projects previously submitted to, and approved by, the Association. Documentationof statements of expenditurewould not be submitted but held available by the Borrower for inspectionby supervisionmissions. - 21 -
E. Accounts,Audits, Reports
5.17 Accountingprocedures of ORM have been found satisfactoryand would be continued. The Administrativeand AccountingDivision is directed by an expatriatetechnician who would continue to be employed until the Malian coun- terpart is ready to take over. As in the on-going first Mopti Rice Project, accounts of ORM will be audited by independentauditors acceptableto IDA, and certified financialstatements and the auditors' report will be submitted within six months after the end of the fiscal year. Assurances to this effect were obtained at negotiations.
5.18 ORM reports quarterlyon currentmatters and produces one detailed account per year. OR14'sreporting has been generally satisfactory. However, it will be discussedwith ORM how reporting activitiescan be adjusted in such a way as to better reflect progress in project activitiesrecognized as problem areas, and how the EvaluationUnit created in 1977 can be put to use for this purpose. The EvaluationUnit would be instructedto collect data for the completionreport on the Mopti I Rice Project and to assume re- sponsibilityfor writing a first draft of that report. ORM would also be responsiblefor preparing the completionreport on the Mopti II Rice Project.
VI. PRODUCTIONAND YIELDS; MARKETS AND PRICES;FARMERS' BENEFITS; ORM FINANCES; GOVERNMENTREVENUE
A. Production and Yields
6.01 The project would result in incremental production of about 34,000 tons of paddy at full developmentin 1985. Incrementalproduction can be allocated to the various project componentsas follows: - 22 -
With the Without the Project Project Incremental Sown Area (1,000 ha)
New Polders 8.6 3.4 5.2 Mopti I Polders 25.7 19.3 6.4 Other Polders 1/ 4.0 4.0 Total 38.-3 26.7 11.6
Yields (t/ha)
New Polders 2.00 0.70 1.30 Mopti I Polders 2.00 1.78 0.22 Other Polders 1/ 2.00 1.50 0.50 Average 2.00 1.60 0.40
Production (1,000t)
New Polders 17.2 2.4 14.8 Mopti I Polders 51.4 34.3 17.1 Other Polders 1/ 8.0 6.0 2.0 Total 76.6 42.7 33.9
1/ Syn-Sarantomo II and Bougoula.
It has been assumed that without the project 40% of the area of new polders would be cultivated in the traditional manner.
6.02 Yields would increase as a function of progress in line-sowing and weeding initially, and fertilizer use subsequently. The different stages of cultivation techniques and the corresponding yields can be summarized as follows:
- Stage 0 (traditional varieties; uncontrolled flooding); 700 kg/ha
- Stage 1 (traditional varieties; controlled flooding); 1,100 kg/ha
- Stage 2 (Sativa varieties; improved land preparation); 1,400 kg/ha
- Stage 3 (Stage 2 + line-sowing, weeding); 1,900 kg/ha
- Stage 4 (Stage 3 + use of 100 kg/ha of urea); 2,500 kg/ha
Experience has shown that farmers adopt improved seed as soon as they join the project. Progress from Stage 2 to Stage 4 will be uneven according to responsiveness of farmers, soil qua'Lity, and hydrological conditions. One quarter of participating farmers would not progress beyond Stage 2 (Annex 9, Table 3). - 23 -
6.03 Projectedyield developmentin individualpolders would be from 1.56 t/ha in the first project year to 1.78 t/ha in the last project year, and to 2.00 t/ha at full developmentin the 8th year of cultivation(Annex 9, Table 3). Overall yields of the project would increase somewhatmore slowly because developmentis not simultaneousin all polders (Table 1). Without the project, yields would remain at the traditionallevel of 0.7 t/ha in the area of the new polders to be developed,and would continue to rise at an uneven rate depending on the hydrologicalconditions of individualpolders in the Mopti I project area and in other existing polders. In the Mopti I polders, yields would level off at about 1.8 t/ha on average, only slightly less than the yields anticipatedat appraisal (1.85 t/ha).
B. Markets and Prices
6.04 Market prospectshave been assessed on the assumption that develop- ment of on-going rice projects will proceed on schedule and that the improve- ment in domestic rice supply observed in recent years (para. 2.22) is stable except for the inevitableweather fluctuations. This implies that Government will maintain the producer price of paddy in real terms (para. 6.06). The project would help to fill the supply gap projected for the early 'eighties (Annex 10, Table 3); until that time, the project would provide a desirable safety margin against shortfallsin domestic supplies that are likely to occur from time to time, with varying severity,because of poor rainfall and flood levels. Any remaining surplus that would not be absorbed by domestic demand could be accumulatedfor the reserve stock which Governmentplans to build up (Annex 1).
6.05 Incrementalproduction from the project will be shared between the regional market (Mopti and Gao) and Bamako. Productionmarketed through official channels (OPAM) was 35 percent in 1977 and is expected to be 40 percent throughoutthe project period and to rise to 45 percent as from 1983. The balance will be home-consumedor sold through private trading channels. OPAM sales in the Mopti/Gao area are projected to remain constant at a level of 15,000 tons since ongoing and planned projects in the Gao area (Action Riz-Sorgho)will stabilize future sales to that area. Total incremental productionmarketed through official channels is expected to be sold to the Bamako area and is valued at MF 71 per kg of paddy (farmgate),while for consumptionin the Mopti area a higher economic price (MF 80/kg) is used (Annex 10, Table 4b).
6.06 The producer price of paddy remained unchangedat MF 40/kg from mid 1974 until autumn 1977. While initiallythis price provided a strong incentive,it has been progressivelyeroded by inflationand the reduction of Government subsidieson farm implements. In 1977, the price for paddy paid by private traderswas consistentlyhigher than the official producer price. The latter was increasedto MF 45/kg before the 1977/78campaign but this increase is not sufficient to offset the effect of inflation. Assuranceswere obtained at negotiationsthat Governmentwill increase the - 24 -
producer price of paddy to at least MF 50/kg before the 1978/79 campaign and will see to it that the price is periodicallyadjusted in such a way as to provide sufficientincentive to farmers. The financial analysis in this report is based on the assumption that the producer price of paddy will be raised to MF 50/kg before the beginning of the 1978/79 campaign.
6.07 The consumer price of rice has also been stable at MF 111.5/kg (for the most common quality) from mid 1974 until autumn 1977. This price became increasinglyout of line with real costs of production,which resulted in substantialsubsidies for urban consumers. In autumn 1977, prices were increased by about 25X to a level close to both actual cost of production and the 1977 import substitution price (Tables 4b and 5 of Annex 10).
6.08 Reimbursementsfor paddy collection,bagging and transport to the mill as well as the allowance for losses appear to be adequate after increases implementedin 1977 (Table 5). Assuranceswere obtained at negotiationsthat the price schedules for these items, which are vital for ORM's financial equilibrium,will be kept at such a level as to reflect actual cost to ORM.
6.09 The Sevare rice-mill is not operated by OPAM (as proposed by IDA at the time it was constructed)but i3 attached, albeit as a semi-detachedunit, to ORM; assuranceswere obtained at negotiationsthat accounts of the rice mill will be kept separate from 0A accounts and that no ORM revenue will be used to cover deficits the mill may incur.
C. Farmers' Benefits
6.10 The beneficiariesof the project would be 4,000 families who will occupy the incrementalcultivable area to be developedas well as the 9,000 families who occupy the exist:ingpolders. Some of the latter would benefit from improved flooding or drainage conditionsas a consequenceof the project while all would benefit from the increase in efficiency of ORM's extension service which the project:aims to achieve. The beneficiaries will be nearly entirely traditiona.Lfarmers of the Mopti area with income levels below the national average.
6.11 In order to safeguard ORM's financial position (para. 6.13) and to ensure that farmers in the project area make an equitable contributiontowards project cost, the development levy will be raised above the level envisaged under the first Mopti Rice Project.. Assuranceswere obtained at negotiations that the current policy of periodically raising the developmentlevy would be continueduntil a levy of 240 kg/ha is reached in 1982. This levy would amount to about half the economic rent of improved land for the less produc- tive farmers, and to 20-30% of the economic rent for progressive farmers (Annex 11, Table 4).
6.12 Compared to incomes from rice growing in traditionalcultivation, family net revenues would increase from MF 49,000 (US$100) to MF 100,000 (US$200) in Stage 2 and MF 182,000 (US$370) in Stage 3 while farmers utilizing fertilizerwould achieve net revenues of US$500 (Annex 11, Table 3). Without - 25 - the project, few farmers in the Mopti I project area would exceed an income level of US$300. These income figures have been derived on the basis of a development levy of 240 kg of paddy per ha (para. 6.11) and a producer price of MF 50/kg (para. 6.06). An additional benefit is the much higher security of revenue compared to traditional cultivation under uncontrolled flooding.
D. Financial Implications for ORM and Government
6.13 The price schedule for rice production and marketing (Annex 10, Table 5) which was adopted in October 1977, will result in a significant increase in ORM's revenues since ORM will now receive FM 9.4 per kg of paddy marketed (instead of FM 6.5 per kg heretofore) for collection and transport, and a further FM 5.3 per kg of paddy marketed as a contribution towards ex- tension costs and crop protection; no payments were made on that account in previous price schedules. As a consequence of these increases, ORM is projected to fully cover its recurrent expenditure including equipment re- newal, and even show a cash surplus (Annex 13, Table 1). This surplus, which would materialize only if ORM maintains financial discipline, could be used for further investments or transferred to Government as a contribu- tion towards capital recovery (para. 6.14), as Government shall decide.
6.14 The new price schedules (para. 6.13) and the development levies agreed upon (para. 6.11) would enable ORM to earn about FM 3,850 million (US$7.9 million) over the project period of 25 years (discounted at 10%); as total project cost over this period (also discounted at 10%) is esti- mated at MF 8,057 million (US$16.4 million), the cost recovery ratio is 48% (Annex 12, Table 4). This is equivalent to full coverage of recurrent costs and recovery of about 35% of investments.
6.15 If Government's net savings on subsidies is taken into account, 90% of total project cost would be recovered (Annex 12, Table 4). In pur- suance of its policy of keeping food prices down, Government would have to lay out subsidies on rice imports as from 1983 if the project were not implemented. The subsidies saved as a consequence of the project would amount to nearly MF 900 million (US$1.8 million) annually at full development (Annex 12, Table 3). Taking into account Government's debt service on IDA and ADF credits as well as input subsidies for ORM farmers, net savings to Government would be about US$1.1 million annually.
VII. BENEFITS AND ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION
Benefits
7.01 The project would lead to an increase in paddy production by some 34,000 tons at full development, of which 15,000 tons would originate from new polders and 19,000 tons from existing polders. Beneficiaries would mainly - 26 - be traditional rice farmers in the flood plains who, due to the peculiar ecological conditions of the area, have few alternative opportunities for gainful employment. The project would also make ORM more cost-effective through a spreading of overheads over an extended area and through improve- ments in the efficiency of its organization. ORM's operating and maintenance expenditure per ton of paddy would decrease by close to 50 percent at full development compared to the 1975/76 level of costs.
7.02 The internal rate of return of the project is 18%. This calculation is based on the assumption that incremental production from the project can be absorbed by domestic demand including demand for the build-up of a rice reserve stock as a protective measure against future droughts. If part of incremental production had to be exported, for a transitional period of some 5 years, the rate of return would still be 16%. Assumptions underlying rate of return calculations are further explained at Annex 13.
7.03 The sensitivity of the rate of return with respect to variations in key parameters is shown below:
Assumptions Rate of Return (%)
Base estimate 18
Costs +10% 15 " +20% 13 " -10% 20 " -20% 24 Benefits -10% 15 -20% 12 +10% 20 +20% 22 Production delayed by 1 year 15 by 2 years 13
Risks
7.04 The project's main risk derives from the peculiarities of the sys- tem of controlled flooding which is a hybrid system with features of both rainfed farming and irrigation agriculture. With the new design criteria adopted after the drought, the risk of insufficient flooding of polders will be much reduced, in particular once the improvements financed under the proj- ect have been implemented; however, occurrence of insufficient or untimely flooding cannot be entirely excluded. In addition, for the first 5-6 weeks of the growing cycle, farmers rely on sufficient and timely rainfall in the same way as in rainfed agriculture. This uncertainty is the price to pay for an otherwise very economic production system with investments below $1,000/ha and low opportunity costs of both land and labor. The sensitivity analysis in the preceding paragraph indicates that even if benefits were 20% lower than anticipated, the rate of return would still be 12%. - 27 -
VIII. AGREEMENTSREACHED AND RECOMMENDATION
8.01 At negotiations,assurances were obtained that:
(a) farmers will have priority in land allocation under the project (para. 3.07);
(b) in the new polders to be developednot more than 2 ha would be allotted per active male family member (para. 3.08);
(c) additional farm machinery will be procured only when IDA is satisfied that the existing machinery is adequately utilized (para. 4.08);
(d) subsidies included in fertilizer and equipment supplied by ORM to farmers in the project area would be at the charge of Government (para. 4.19);
(e) Governmentwill take action to ensure that the rice- milling capacity in the project area will be expanded in line with the increase in paddy production (para. 4.21);
(f) accounts of ORM will be audited by independentauditors acceptable to IDA and certifiedfinancial statementsand the auditors' report will be submittedwithin six months after the end of the fiscal year (para. 5.17);
(g) Governmentwill increase the producer price of paddy to at least MF 50/kg before the 1978/79 campaign and see to it that the price is periodicallyadjusted in such a way as to provide sufficientincentive to farmers (para. 6.06);
(h) the price schedules (baremes)for collection,bagging and transport of paddy as well as the allowance for losses will be kept at such a level as to reflect actual cost to OEM (para. 6.08);
(i) the accounts of the Sevare rice mill will be kept separate from ORM accounts and no ORM revenuewill be used to cover deficits the mill may incur (para. 6.09);
(j) the current policy of periodicallyraising the develop- ment levy would be continueduntil a levy of 240 kg/ha is reached in 1982 (para. 6.11).
8.02 A condition of effectivenessof the Credit is the fulfillmentof all conditions precedent to the initial disbursementof the FAC grant (para. 5.04).
8.03 With the indicatedassurances and condition, the project is suit- able for a credit on standard terms of US$15.0 million equivalent to the Government of Mali. - 28 - ANNEX 1 Page 1
MALI
MOPTI LI RICE PROJECT
Rice Production and Consumption in Mali
Production
1. Until 1969, rice was produced in Mali by smallholders on some 130,000 ha in the Niger flood plains, where cultivation under flooding is possible on several hundred thousand hectares, and in the Office du Niger (40,000 ha) where the water inflow is controlled by the Markala dam on the Niger near Segou. Traditional rice-growing by smallholders was very exten- sive, and yields were in the range of 700-800 kg/ha. The Office du Niger, due to poor maintenance and organizational problems, never made full use of the scheme's potential: Double-cropping was never practised, and yields achieved by farmers (4 ha; ox-drawn cultivation) were only about 1.6 t/ha in the 'sixties but rose to more than 2 tons in recent years.
2. In spite of this low level of productivity, Malian rice-growers in the 'fifties and early 'sixties produced a modest surplus for export to neighboring territories of French Best Africa (Table 1). The French colonial administration, which controlled fcreign trade patterns in these countries, had an obvious interest in meeting the import demand of the coastal terri- tories without foreign exchange expenditure while at the same time providing an outlet for the surplus of the Office du Niger, a project in which France had invested considerable funds since 1929. In the 'sixties, when the terri- tories of French West Africa had become independent, this administrative protection for Malian rice exports ceased to exist. In an effort to remain competitive with overseas suppliers of rice Mali maintained a very low pro- ducer price for paddy. This did not lead to a strengthening of its export position but wiped out marketable surpluses within a few years. Production declined (Table 1) or was partly sold by clandestine circuits across the border to neighboring countries. In spite of her vast rice-growing potential, Mali became a net importer in 1968.
3. The Government that came to power in the coup of 1968 took steps to reverse this trend. Operation Riz, an agency with managerial and financial autonomy, was created to improve rice-growing conditions in the flood-plains of the Niger by providing partial water control through dikes and intake/ offtake structures and by supplying essential inputs and extension services. The agency was later on split into Operation Riz Segou (ORS), financed by EDF, and Operation Riz Mopti (ORM), financed by IDA. On a smaller scale, similar efforts were initiated in b3ttomlands in the south (Sikasso) and west (Kayes, Bafoulabe, Kenieba). After a promising start, progress was held up by the droughts of 1972/73 and 1973174. Rice cultivation systems of the polder type developed in the Niger delta are highly vulnerable to shortfalls ANNEX 1 - 29 - Page 2
in the river water level; the proportion of empoldered areas receiving no ofrinsufficient amounts of water was over half in these years, leading to drastic falls in the level of production.
4. Rice production has increased in a spectacular manner since the end of the drought, i.e. as from 1974/75. The main reasons are:
- the development of some 55,000 ha in the various Operations Riz (Segou, Mopti, Sikasso) in the years 1969-74; most of these areas came into full pro- duction for the first time in the post-drought year 1974/75;
- the Office du Niger achieved some improvements in its operation, bringing yields to more than 2 tons/ha.
In addition, the very high world market price of rice prevailing in 1973/74 had the beneficial side-effect of forcing Government to increase domestic consumer prices, thereby making parallel increases in the producer price possible. The efforts undertaken since 1969 on the production side (civil works, extension services) were thus complemented by adequate price incen- tives for producers. As from 1976, however, the incentive provided by the 1974 price increase showed signs of wearing off as a consequence of substan- tial increases in prices of consumer goods and agricultural equipment. In autumn 1977, Government increased the producer price of paddy from MF 40/kg to MF 45/kg.
Consumption
5. Rice consumption in Mali is estimated at 120,000 tons in 1976. This corresponds to a per capita level of 20 kg. The national average of per capita consumption of rice has fluctuated, with a relatively small margin, around this figure over the last 15 years for which data are available (Table 1). Per capita consumption is intermediate between consumption levels in the neighboring countries of the Sahel without significant domestic rice produc- tion (3 - 5 kg) and consumption levels in the coastal countries between the Ivory Coast and Senegal (Table 2). In fact, the national average of 20 kg can be broken down into an average of less than 5 kg for the majority of the rural population and consumption levels of 50 - 100 kg per capita for the rice-growing populations and the more affluent of the populations in the few major towns.
6. Rice and wheat are preferred to coarse grains (millet, sorghum, maize) by those who have come into contact with these cereals and can afford them. Bread and rice require little time for preparation while millet must be pounded, a laborious and time-consuming daily task. The progress of rice consumption is slowed down, however, by limited availability (in the thinly populated countryside away from the rice-growing areas) and by its high price: rice costs FM 111.50/kg (for RM40 quality) while millet is sold by OPAM at FM 51.50/kg. With respect to nutritional value, both cereals are roughly equivalent, rice being superior in calories but millet and sorghum having more proteins and lipides per unit. ANNEX I Page 3 - 30 -
Distribution
7. The national marketing agency OPAM (Office des Produits Agricoles du Mali) has the monopoly for domestic and foreign trade in cereals. Before the drought, OPAM bought only the surplus of the Office du Niger where farmers had limited possibilities of evading the official circuit. All other farmers sold their paddy to private traders since official producer prices were substantially below the free market price. (Private trade was officially prohibited but has been tolerated, to a certain extent, in recent years as attempts to eliminate it have failed). OPAM supplemented domestic purchases of rice through imports which had risen to 20 - 30,000 tons before the drought. OPAM sells rice mainly to Bamako and to the food deficit areas of Gao and Kayes (Table 3) while private traders supply part of the Bamako market as well as the provincial towns and rural areas of easy access.
8. In the execution of its marketing functions, OPAM shows a low degree of flexibility; this is partly due to organizational shortcomings but also to policy constraints imposed on it. OPAM's shortcomings are more noticeable in the marketing of coarse grains, however, than in the case of rice since OPAM can deal directly with the Office du Niger and the various rice growing opera- tions. In the Office du Niger, farmers are obliged to sell total production except for a liberal allowance for home consumption. In the Operations, farmers must deliver a certain quota (500 kg/ha in years of good or average yields) while the disposal of the remainder is at the discretion of the farmer (with the exception of the development levy which farmers in the Operations as well as in the Office du Niger must deliver in kind).
Milling
9. Rice milling is partly in the hands of OPAM and partly carried out by rice development agencies such as the Office du Niger and the Operation Riz Mopti. One mill is privateLLy owned. Theoretical rice milling capacity was 111,000 tons of paddy in 1977 but 2 mills (totalling 20,000 tons capacity) have been closed for a number of'years due to the small amount of rice mar- keted by OPAM before 1974/75. Following the steep increase in marketed pro- duction in 1975/76, the two mills are to be reactivated. Milling capacity will be increased to about 143,000 tons by the completion of two further mills which are under construction with financing from the African Develop- ment Fund and the European Investment Bank (Table 4). This should be suf- ficient until about 1980; however, the milling capacity in an area is not in all cases geared to the volumie of production marketed in that area. This leads to uneconomic movements of paddy over distances of several hundred miles.
Storage
10. OPAM has a storage capacity of about 138,000 tons of cereals (in- cluding coarse grains) which is located partly in the main producer areas of Segou (45,000 tons), Mopti (30,000 tons) and Sikasso (7,000 tons), and partly in the main markets (Bamako 30,000 tons, Gao 20,000 tons and Kayes 6,000 ANNEX 1 - 31 - Page 4 tons). New storage facilitieshave been built in recent years with financial assistance from Great Britain (30,000 t) and more storage space will be financed by the Federal Republic of Germany (coarsegrains) and the European DevelopmentFund (rice).
Security Stock
11. Mali plans to build up a security stock of cereals in order to pro- tect city dwellers and populationsin deficit areas (Gao, Kayes) against the effects of a new drought. The Five Year Plan originally emphasizedcoarse grains (50,000 tons, and only 20,000 tons of rice) but plans have recently been revised and expanded: the emphasis is now on rice (60,000tons) while coarse grain stocks are now planned to be only 20-40,000tons.
12. While the original plans were in accordancewith the structure of consumptionof prospectiveusers of a security stock, this is not the case for the revised plans. Moreover, the overall magnitude of nearly 100,000tons is probably excessiveand may cost not less than MF 2 billion (US$4 million) in annual cost in addition to initial buying costs of MF 8 billion (US$16 million). The Malian Government,however, insists that a large reserve stock is required to offset the delays in transportingcereals from the coast to the areas of need, some of which are of difficultaccess.
13. While the build-up of a moderate millet/sorghumreserve stock is underway,with financialassistance from the Federal Republic of Germany, plans for the rice reserve stock, to be financed by EDF, have been delayed due to financialconstraints. MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Development of Rice Consumption in Mali, Total and Per Capita
Prncedure - - - 65 -.- + -(8) * * (A) & (8) ni ts unitis I 000 ha I 000 t. I 000 t. I 000 t. I 000 t. I 000 t. I 000 t. I 000 t. I 000 t. I 000 %
Aiea Domestic Losses Seed Availablefor Rico Rice Total Total Per capita Self-atffi- paddy (10% p.a) (100 kg/ha) consumption exports imports consump- popu- consump- cTency in Yedrs barvested Yupply tion lation tion rice Anndcs Supeificiel)ispon;bi- Pertes Somences Disponibilitgh la Exporta. IuAporte-Consomma- Popula- Consouma- Auto-auffl- rgcolthe Iitd (l0% p.a) (100 kg/ha) consomnation tions de tions de tion tion tion par sanco an rix natioale riz Piz totale totale t&te en padldy Paddy Rice/Riz lbs/head Ib/hab kg/hab
1960 170.0 ... 3 965 61 182.0 185 18.5 18.2 148.3 96.4 12.6 83.8 4 068 201.6 100.0 62 200.0 ISS t8-.5 20.0 146.5 95.2 15.0 80.2 4 174 19.2 100.0 63 123.0 190 19.0 12.3 158.7 103.2 5.2 98.0 4 283 22.9 100.0 64 158.5 165.0 16.5 15.85 132.6 86.2- 1.1 85.1 4 394. 19.4 100.0 99o- 64 181.3 95.3 86.8 20.5 100.0 65 169.0 158.0 15.8 J6.9 125.3 81.4 3.7 77.7 4 508 17.2 l00.0 66 177.5 162.0 16.2 17.75 128. 83.3 83.3 4 625 18.0 100.0 67 197.6 158.0 15.8 19.76 122.4 79.6 79.6 4 745 16.8 100.0 68 I62.3 169.3 16.93 16.23 136.1 88.5 88.5 4 880 18.1 100.0 69 133.3 135.7 13.57 13.33 108.8 70.7 20.4 91.1 5 001 18.2 77.6 165- 69 156.6 80.7 84.0 17.7 96.1 70 128.6 156.5 15.65 12.86 128.0 83.2 14.5 97.7 5 124 19.1 85.2 71 116.3 169.4 16.94 11.63 140.8 91.5 15.0 106.5 5 260 20.3 85.9 72 95.0 1/ 156.8 15.68 9.5 131.6 85.5 30.5 116.0 5 400 21.5 73.7 197C-72 160.9 86.7 20.0 106.7 20.3 81.3 I;H40.O/ 110.0 11.0 18.0 89.0 52.7 45.6 98.3 5 544 17.7 53.6 74 140.01/ 105.0 10.5 14.0 80.5 52.3 65.3 117.6 5 691 20.7 44.5 75 216 _/ 7;l.0 34.2 107.2 19.9 68.1 76 259 2/ 77 263 2/ ______1/ WARDA estimnateR/FqtIMAt1O-nn ADRAO 2/ Bank estimates
Source: WARDA, Rice Statistics Yearbook 1975, and mission estimates. MALI
t?OPTI II RICE PROJECT
Per Capita Rice Consumption (Kg) in West African Countries
WARDA lgembar Average Average Average Average *Pays Membres Moyenne Moyenne 1970 1971 1972 loyenne 1973 1974 Moyenn * Countries 190-64 19 5-69 1970_72 1970-74 de I *ADRAO
Benin 2.4 2.9 2.0 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.5 3.3 3.0 Benin Gambia 68.1 y 65.0 78.5 67.0 69.6 71.7 88.5 82.0 77.1 Gambie Ghana 9.0 j 7.1 10.1 7.4 7.0 8.2 8.4 9.3 8.4 Ghana Ivory Coast 35.0 45.7 50.5 52.3 54.1 52.3 56.2 43.7 51.4 cate d'lvoir- Liberia 87.7 91.6 j 100.8 104.8 96.1 100.6 96.6 87.0 97.1 Libdrla Mali 20.5 / 17.7 19.1 20,3 21.5 20,3 17.7 20.7 19.9 Mali Mauritania 5.3 j 8.6 10.0 24.2 26.2 20.1 19.0 25.7 21.0 Mauritania Niger 1.9 4.4 5.1 3.6 4.5 4.4 2.8 4.3 4.1 Niger Nigeria 1.9 j/ 2.4 2.6 2.1 3.0 2.6 3.6 3.8 3.0 Nig6rIa Senegal 53.3 L/ 61.1 51.9 58.1 ,54.6 54.9 49.4 60.7 54.9 SEnegaI Sierra Leone 81.8 96.3 104.1 102.3 87.4 97.9 105.8 108.6 101.6 Sierra Leone Togo 6.7 *7.8 6.6 7.2 6.5 6.8 4.8 3.5 5.7 Togo Upper Volta 3.9 4.4 3.6 3.6 3.8 , 3.7 ' 2.8 5.8 3.9 Haute Volta WARDA-SUB-REGION ; 10.3 11.7 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.4 13.0 13.2 12.6 SOUS-REGION-AORAO jJ 1961-1964 3/ Average computed as annual total rice consumption divided by the corresponding population 2/ Muyennes calcul6es b partlr de la consommdtion annuelle de riz dlvishe par la population correspondante
Source: WARDA, Rice Statistics Yearbook- 1975
"H MALI
ESOPTIII RICE PROJECT
REGIONALSTRUCTURE CF OPAMCEREALS PURCHASESAND SALES (lOOOt)
(Average 1974/75 and 1975/76)
Region Capital Population Coarse Grains Rice All Cereals ) Bought Sold Surplus/Deficit Bought Sold Surplus/Deficit Bought Sold Surplus/Deficit
1st Kayes 14 3 11 - R 8 - 8 3 19 -16
2nd Bamako 19 7 23 -16 _ 26 -26 7 49 -42
3rd Sikasso 19 11 2 + 9 - 2 - 2 11 4 + 7 4th Segou 15 20 2 +18 40 3 +37 60 5 +55
5th Mopti 21 11 2 + 9 8 1 + 7 19 3 +16
6th Gao 12 - 12 -12 _ 8 - 8 _ 20 _ -20 Total 100 52 52 +36 -36 48 48 +44 -44 100 100 +78 -78
Sources: Compte Rendu de Reunion de la Commission Interninisterielle de Reorganiaation du Circuit Cerealier, March 7, 1977, for sales of cereals; CEGOS, Etude des Structires de Prix et des Mecanismes de la Commnercialisation des Mils et Sorghos, Paris, 1976, Vol. II, p. 8 for pur- chases 1974/75; infornmtion from OPAMfor purchases 1975/76, and stracture of purchases 1974/75.
21I- 35- ANNEX 1 Table 4
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Rice Milling Capacity (Tons of Paddy)
A. Existing
Korouba (OPAM) 6,000 (3 shifts)
Tamani (Private) 11,000 " "
Diafarabe (OPAM) 13,800 "
Sevare (ORM) 15,000 " "
Molodo (ON) 18,000 "
Kourouma (ON) 18,000 "
Kolongotomo (ON) 12,000 " "
N'Diebougou (ON) 18,000 "
Theoretical Capacity in 1977 111,000 "
B. Planned
Dioro (ORS) 20,000 "
Sikasso (CMDT) 12,000 " " 1/
Projected Capacity 1980 143,000
1/ Mali-Sud Staff Project Report, No. 1171-MLI,para. 3.21. - 36 - ANNEX 2 Page 1
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
The ProjectArea
General
1. The Mopti region is located in the central part of the Niger flood plains, which extend over a length of more than 500 km with widths varying be- tween 150 and 200 km. Because of the size of the area, flood levels are suf- ficientlyshallow to allow rice cultivation. About 100,000ha are estimated to be cultivated under the traditionaluncontrolled flooding. Rice is the basic food crop in the region; livestockand fishing are important secondary activities.
Climate
2. Rains are concentrated Ln a single rainy season, from May to October; rainfall averages 550 mm per year at Mopti, increasingfrom the north of the project area (450 mm) towards the south (650 mm). Average annual temperature is 280C, with small seasonal but important daily variations,especially during the dry season.
Soils
3. A soil classificationcarried out in the project area indicates that 96% of the soils are suitable for rice cultivation. Heavy soils with a fine to very fine texture and a high clay content (over 40% of clay) are found in the low-lyingareas, whereas lighter soils with a coarse texture in the upper layers and a clay content of about 10% predominatein the more ele- vated areas. Areas having the latter type of soils and not subject to flood- ing are often the sites of villages and are used to grow subsistencecrops other than rice, such as sorghum and millet.
Hydrology and Flooding System
4. The floods of the Niger and its main tributaryin Mali, the Bani, have been recorded for about forty years. In the Mopti area, these floods start in June/Julyand reach a maximum in mid October; they subside by February/March. In years of normal or close to normal rainfall, rice fields are flooded 30-40 days after sowing. For a descriptionof the flood cul- tivation system, see Annex 3.
5. In the absence of levelling,water depth during the flood period is uneven, reaching 3 m in the low-lying rice cultivatedfields. Under such - 37 - ANNEX 2 Page 2
conditions,only floating rice can be grown and yields are in the order of 0.7 ton of paddy per ha. In the early 1950's, the Rural Works Department (RWD) of the Ministry of Productionconstructed some polders in the project area. However, because many were poorly designed and others were not prop- erly operated and maintained,not more than 40% of the empolderedarea was suitable for paddy cultivation,with yields averaging only 0.9 ton of paddy/ha. A review of polder design criteria was started in 1965 under a UNDP/PAO project and, as a result, new standardswere set up to govern height of dikes, waterflow through the intakes, timing of submersion,and delinea- tion of the areas suitable for the main rice varieties. These standardswere used for the improvementof some of the existing polders and the construction of several new ones under Credit 277-NLI. Average yields in improved areas increasedto 1.0 - 1.1 tons of paddy/ha even before extension services became operational.
6. During the drought years of 1972/73 and 1973/74, less than half of the polders of the Mopti Rice Project were flooded. The drought years induced a revisionby RWD of design standards (Annex 3). The new standardshave been applied to the design of the proposed Mopti II Rice polders and have also been the basis for a revision of areas to be cultivatedin polders developed under Credit 277-MLI.
Population
7. Villages in the project area are concentratedalong the rivers and range in populationfrom about 600 to 1,000 inhabitants.2Average population density in the province of Mopti is only about 12 per km . Populationdensity is lower on the Niger and the left bank of the Bani than on the right bank of the Bani where the majority of the polders developedunder Credit 277-MLI are located. The proposed extensionswill also be on the right bank of the Bani.
Farming Systems and Land Tenure
8. Farm families in existing polders cultivateabout 2.4 ha of paddy on average, the same area as those cultivatingrice outside polders. In addition, the average family grows about 1.4 ha of other subsistencecrops, such as sorghum and millet. Shifting cultivationis practiced for sorghum and millet on the higher areas, while rice is continuallycultivated on low- lying and polder soils. Yields are low, averaging about 0.7 tons of paddy/ha in traditionalcultivation. Average yields for millet and sorghum are of the same order of magnitude.
9. Individualproperty rights do not exist and land for cultivation is usually allocated among farmers by the village chief. In the ORM polders, however, this responsibilityhas been turned over to the Director of ORM which, so far, has not created any major problems as ORM has worked closely with the local authorities. -38 - ANNEX 2 Page 3
10. The flood plains are also an important livestock region, as many ponds and lakes carry water throughout the dry season after the floods have receded, offering grazing land and watering facilities to the herds. Although most of the herds are held by nomnadic tribes one out of every two or three farmers in the project area owns a pair of draft oxen.
Agriculture Research
11. The French Research Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IRAT) has been carrying out experiments on rice in two research stations in Mali, one of which (Ibetemi) is located in the project area. The main purpose of the rice research program has been to test desirable varieties and adapt them to existing ecological conditions and to increase their productivity through application of improved techniques. These targets have been gradually achieved, starting from local varieties, followed by improved varieties, and later by new varieties selected for both irrigated and floating rice and having different growing periods. The research station has been trans- ferred, with the seedfarm, to the polder of Mopti-Nord in 1975. IRAT is phasing out its research and will' be replaced, as from 1977, by a research team of the West Africa Rice Development Association (WARDA). Applied agri- cultural research (recherche d'ac:compagnement) in the project polders is carried out by ORM under the supervision of the Institut d'Economie Rurale (IER), which has overall responsibility for coordinating agricultural re- search.
Transport
12. A paved road along the eastern edge of the flood plains connects Mopti with the capital, Bamako, and all but three of the polders of the first Mopti Rice Project connect directly with it. Large parts of the Mopti-San section of this road are in the process of rapid disintegration since a few years. Two polders, on the western side of the plains, connect indirectly with the Mopti-Bamako highway by a road that is passable only during the dry season. One small polder, opposite Mopti, can only be reached by boat. The new polders to be developed under the proposed project are all close to the Mopti-Bamako road.
Rice Milling
13. A rice mill with a capacity of 15,000 tons was constructed with financial and technical assistance from China at Sevare, close to the ORM headquarters and started operations in 1974/75. It was attached to ORM whose Director supervises the mill run by three Chinese technicians and Malian staff. It processes paddy produced in the Mopti area as well as paddy brought from Segou and Sikasso areas. The mill is operating efficiently but lacks storage space. Another rice mill is located on the left bank of the Niger at Diafarabe, near two polders of the Mopti Rice Project. It is operated by OPAM and was closed in the early 'seventies because of insufficient domestic paddy supply. The mill was re-activated in 1977 but produces only small amounts of rice due to lack of qualified personnel and mechanical problems. Its re- habilitation, or replacement, is under study by OPAM. -39 - ANNEX 3 Page 1
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Rice Cultivation Under Controlled Flooding
Uncontrolled and Controlled Flooding Systems
1. In the Mopti area, rainfall starts in June, reaches a peak in August and stops in early October. The flood of the Niger river has the same pattern but follows the rainfall with an approximate delay of two months. In average years, the flood starts in mid-July, reaches a peak in mid-October and ends its recession early February.
2. Under traditionalcultivation methods in the Niger river flood plains, floating rice is sown at the onset of the rainy season and is grown under rainfed conditions during the first phase of its vegetative cycle. When the water level in the river rises, the plain is progressively inundatedand then rice grows under submersion conditions. This cultivation system has various drawbacks since rice production is highly dependent upon:
(a) the rising velocity of the water level in the plain;
(b) the maximum level of the water in the plain;
(c) the duration of the submersion of the rice fields;
(d) the incidence of rice-eating fish in the river.
3. The traditionalsystem of uncontrolledflooding can be transformed into a system of controlled flooding by some simple works: a protection dike is built around the flood plain, thus creating a polder. Intake/offtake structureswith gates control the filling as well as the drainage of the empoldered plain. A system of canals, linking the bottom areas of the flood plain, is designed to improve filling and drainage conditions. These hydrau- lic works permit:
(a) control of the rising velocity of the water level in the polder;
(b) control of the maximum water level inside the polders and delaying the drying of the polders when the river recedes;
(c) control of the damages caused by rice-eatingfish through screens put in front of the intake structure. - 40 - ANNEX 3 Page 2
Rice CultivationUnder Controlled Flooding
4. In the polders of the Mopti region, rice is sown at the beginning of the rainy season and is grown under rainfed conditionsfor the first phase of its cycle. Dependingupon the maximum water level allowed in the polder and upon the topographyof the plain, two differentareas for rice cultivation can be defined:
(a) a high area, where the water depth would be below 45 cm and where non-floatingrice varieties (riz dresse) can be grown;
(b) a lower area, where the water depth would be between 25 cm and 150 - 175 cm, and where floating-ricevarieties would be grown; where the water depth exceeds 1.75 m, polders are not cultivatedbut a natural pasture of excellent quality, commonly called Bourgou (EchinocloaStagnina) thrives in these zones and constitutesa very nutritious fodder for the numerous cattle of the region during the long dry season.
5. The land is prepared with ox-drawn equipment as soon as the soils are sufficientlymoistened by the rains (around the end of June). It is recommendedto sow rice as early as possible since rice plants must be suf- ficientlystrong and developedwhen the polder is flooded. Experience showed that submersionof rice should start 35-40 days after sowing.
6. When filling of the polder starts, the gates of the intake struc- ture are maintained completelyoper so as to fill the lowest uncultivated areas (Bourgoupastures) as fast as possible; the rising velocity of the water level can reach 10 cm per day (which is the average rising velocity of the flood outside the polder). When the water level reaches the lower limit of the floating rice fringe, the gates of the intake structure are partly closed, reducing the rising velocity of the water level to not more than 5 cm per day, which is the maximum acceptablevelocity of flooding. When the non-floating rice fringe is reached, the gates are closed further to keep the rising velo- city below 3.3 cm per day. Since from August until mid-Septemberthe rising velocity of the water level outside the polder is much higher than 5 cm/day, the polder works delay submersionof the upper fringeswhere non-floatingrice is grown. Statisticalanalysis of the rainfall over 30 years on a 10 day basis, from the 20th of August until the end of September,showed that, in order to assure optimum yields with a good probability,the flooding of the non-floatingrice areas should not be delayed beyond mid-September. Other- wise, the carry-overof rainfall moisture in the soil will be insufficient.
7. If, in the upper fringe, rice is sown too early, there is a greater risk from water shortage during the second half of September,when the rains are much reduced and the flood has aot yet reached the paddy fields. Likewise, in the lower fringe, if rice is sowI too early, the sowing is likely to fail - 41 - ANNEX 3 Page 3 if June rainfall is erratic. Consequently,the recommendeddates of sowing are spread between the 15th of July and the 15th of August, according to the type of rice (floatingor non-floating)and to the elevation of the paddy field.
8. The last hydrologicalconstraint relates to the drainage of the paddy fields which is, of course, of greater importance for the floating rice area (lower fringes). Even for the latest maturing floating varieties, drainage should not be delayed beyond end December/earlyJanuary. Since, for economic reasons, drainage has to be carried out by gravity, the lower limit of the floating rice fields has to be fixed high enough to allow good drainagewith a sufficientlyhigh probability.
Limitations
9. The constraintsdescribed above show that full water control is not assured with this type of simple irrigation. Consequently,a careful selection of the flood plains and of the elevations of the fringes allocated to non-floatingand floating varieties has to be made to provide the partici- pating farmers with adequate insurance against crop failures.
10. The polders of Mopti I Rice Project were designed to provide a 90% (f=0.9) assurance for the timely watering of the different fringes of the polders. Unfortunately,during the 1972 and 1973 droughts, very low floods occurred on the Niger and Bani rivers (recurrenceof once in 50-60 years), and the harvested areas were very small in relation to the sown areas (35% and 53%, respectively). Design standards correspondingto a given desired flooding probabilityhad to be redefined in the light of recent experience; in addition, it was decided to raise the desired flooding assurance to 95%.
Possibilitiesof Improving Water Control Within the Folders
11. The simplest way to improve water control and flooding probability within the impoldered areas is to raise the lower limit of the floating-rice zone and, on the other hand, to lower the upper limit of the non-floating rice zone with the consequenceof reducing the cultivable area for each polder. Since the hydraulic works remain virtually unchanged, such a modificationwould entail an increase in the investment costs per ha of between 10 and 20%. This is the price to pay for a better assurance of adequate flooding (0.95 instead of 0.90), and for smaller depths of flooding (max. 1.40 m instead of 2 m) with their beneficial effect on yields.
12. In addition, the topography of new polders should be carefully surveyed in order to ensure that ground levels are low enough (in relation to flood levels in the river) to permit a 0.95 assurance of adequate flooding. This would, for instance, eliminate the polders located along the Bani river upstream of the Syn-Sarantomo polder.
13. The culti-able areas of the Mopti I project have been reduced, as a consequenceof these measures, from 31,100 ha to 26,200 ha. The polders to be developed under the proposed project have been designed and selected according to the principles set out in paras 11 and 12 above. -42 - ANNEX 4 Page 1
MALI
MOPT] II RICE PROJECT
The Mopti I Rice Project (Cr. 277-MLI)
A. Background
1. The project was started as part of Government'seffort to reverse the trend of increasingrice imports which was registered in the late sixties. The Operation Riz, founded in 1969 for the purpose of developing rice cultiva- tion by controlled flooding in the Niger flood plains, was split in an Oper- ation Riz Segou, financed by the European Development Fund (EDF), and an Operation Riz Mopti (ORM) for which financial assistance was provided by IDA and technical assistance by French aid (FAC). The project was identified by RMWA and prepared by Governmentwith assistance from FAC and UNDP financed consultants. The project was appraised in April/May 1971.
B. Project Description
2. The project consisted originally of:
- the constructionof 3 polders with an area of 13,300 ha;
- the rehabilitationof 5 polders with an area of 13,200 ha;
- land preparation (deep ploughing) on part of the new and the rehabilitatedpolders as well as on one further existing polder, altogetheron 10,300 ha;
- constructionof offices, houses, workshops, stores and sheds for the project;
- acquisition of vehicles and farm machinery (tractors,trailers, threshers, seeders);
- an applied agricultural research program;
- establishment and operation of a seed farm;
- technicalassistance for project management;and
- staff and operatingcost of the project authority.
The project also included the feasibilitystudy for the second Mopti Rice Project. -43- ANNEX 4 Page 2
3. The project's objectivewas to raise production of paddy by 35,000 tons by 1982. Total project area was planned to be 31,000 ha. Yields were to increase from 0.70 t/ha (traditionaloutside polders) and 0.88 t/ha (tradi- tional within polders) to 1.86 t/ha, i.e. by 1.0 - 1.2 t/ha. This was to be achieved through the introductionof improved seed (sativa varieties instead of glaberrima),improved and timely ploughing and seeding initially, and through line-sowing,intensive weeding and the application of fertilizer in the later stages. A total of 7,300 farms were expected to be reached by the project (4.25 ha/farm). 40% of farmers were expected to adopt the complete package, a further 20%, the package without fertilizer while 20% of farmers would only use improved seeds and apply prescribed ploughing and harrowing techniques. The last 20% of farmers would continue to apply traditional methods and not even use improved seeds.
4. The project started on June 1, 1972 and will terminate on May 31, 1978. Total cost was originally estimated at US$9.4 million net of taxes, of which IDA contributedUS$6.9 million and FAC US$0.7 million. In 1975, a supplementarycredit of US$2.6 million was granted by IDA, and FAC contri- buted an additional of US$0.5 million in order to offset the dollar devalua- tion, meet certain cost overruns and provide for minor changes in project design (fortificationof dikes with a laterite cover and substitutionof wooden gates by iron gates). Of the total IDA Credit of US$9.5 million, all but US$0.86 million had been disbursed as of June 9, 1977.
C. Project Execution
Project Organization
5. The Operation Riz Mopti (ORM) has the managerial and financial autonomy common to all Operations de Development. The Director of ORM, who is Malian, is a senior agriculturalist,who reports to the Ministry of Rural Development.
6. The project employed a staff of 318 in mid-1977. Technical assist- ance, provided by consultantsSCET International(France), decreased from seven professionalsin 1972 to four in 1976 and two in 1977.
7. ORM originally consisted of 10 Sectionswhich all reported directly to the Director. In 1976, these Sections were grouped into four Divisions, i.e.
- Administration,Finance, Accounts
- Rural Works
- Production and Extension
- Supplies;Mechanization. - 44 - ANNEX 4 Page 3
8. Extension staff is organized in four zones, each comprising2 - 3 polders. In 1975/76, there was one extension agent for 78 farms on average (or I agent per 150 ha) which is a high density. Staff has undergone exten- sive training at project headquartersand has also produced detailed statis- tics of participatingfarmers, their equipment, sowings, applied techniques, marketed quantities etc. Indeed thiestaff appears to be tied up excessively by these statistical tasks and by narketingactivities during the time when extension efforts are criticallyneeded.
9. An EvaluationUnit has been set up in early 1977. It will monitor farmers' response to the improved cultivationtechniques recommended by ex- tension services, evaluate the results from the technicaland economical point of view and propose supporting or correctivemeasures.
Civil Works and Deep Ploughing
10. Execution of civil works was temporarilyhampered by a bottleneck in cement supplies but proceeded satisfactorilyin 1975 and 1976. Civil works are now virtually completed.
11. As a consequenceof the experiencein the drought years 1972/73 and 1973/74,when only 1/3 and 1/2 of developed areas were inundated,respectively, the net cultivablearea of each poLder was redefined in order to arrive at a probabilityinundation of 0.95 instead of 0.90. Both the upper fringes and the lowest fringes of polders were eliminatedwhich resulted in a reduction of the cultivablearea from 31,090 ha to 26,200 ha, or by 15% (Table 1).
12. Part of the 26,200 ha were found to require additional investment. The original investmenthad been very light (total cost only US$400/ha for new polders and less than US$100 for the rehabilitationof existing polders). Several canals will need to be widened or deepened to give optimum service, and some secondarychannels and drainage structureswill have to be built (Table 1). These works will be included under the proposed project.
13. Deep ploughing has been carried out on 8,900 ha instead of the 10,300 ha provided for in the appraisal report. The reason is that the contractorfor the rural works, who had also carried out the deep ploughing, abandoned the residual works in 1975, preferring to pay the statutory penalty. In his absence, no alternativecontractor could be induced to undertake the deep ploughing of a mere 1,400 ha. Residual rural works were completed by local sub-contractorsand, by force account, by the Rural Works Department which, however, does not have the heavy tractors required for deep ploughing.
Social Structure of Project Partic:pants
14. The average area attributedper family unit has remained consider- ably behind appraisal estimates of 4.25 ha and has even shown a declining tendency (Table 2). As a result, the number of participatingfarmers, close to 9,000 families in 1976/77, already far exceeds the 7,300 anticipatedfor full development. The small size of holdings (2.4 ha on average) reflects the - 45 - ANNEX4 Page 4 limited equipment of farmers and their consequent inability to effectively cope with larger holdings. About one farmer out of two has a pair of oxen and a plough while few have harrows and carts (Table 3). This equipment is sufficient, however, to plough the attributed areas if exchange of services between farm units is taken into account; the accepted equipment ratio is one plough for 4 ha.
15. The share of professional groups other than full-time farmers is fairly high in the project (Table 4), in particular in the polder close to Mopti, where much land was allocated to civil servants and to traders. Other professional groups like fishermen and artisans are closer to farmers in their style of farm management, while civil servants and traders rely heavily on hired labor and on use of farm machinery. Some of these participants have run into labor bottlenecks in recent years.
16. While the average size of holdings has remained considerably below appraisal estimates (para. 14) some participants have inordinately large farms as shown by the breakdown in Table 5. While the number of these large holdings is small, their share in total attributed area is not negligible. The project authority is taking steps to reduce the size of these farms to a maximum of 2 ha per active male person.
Production and Cultivation Techniques
17. Development of attributed and sown areas as well as of yields and paddy production is summarized in Table 2. Achievements have been compared with appraisal estimates adjusted for the reduction in cultivable area mentioned in para. 11. It appears that the development of cultivated area has by and large followed the revised appraisal estimate, and the same is true for yields with the exception of the drought years 1972/73 and 1973/74.
18. The substitution of Sativa rice varieties for the traditional Glaberrima rice was unexpectedly rapid and is now complete, far ahead of appraisal estimates (Table 6). On the other hand, cultivation techniques did not develop much beyond the traditional methods which farmers used before joining the project. In particular weeding practices are very deficient (Table 6). There was, however, some encouraging progress in repeat ploughing and, in 1976/77, a significant progress in timely sowing. Appraisal report targets for the more advanced techniques, line-sowing and improved weeding by cultivator and, ultimately, fertilizer use, will not be met within the project period. Introduction of line-sowing, the prerequisite for effective weeding and for making good use of fertilizer, was retarded by the lack of a seeder adapted to local conditions. Following the identification and acquisition of a suitable type, line-sowing has begun on a modest scale and has reached about 6X of the cultivated area in 1976/77 (Table 6). Details of cultivation techniques, by individual polders, are at Table 7.
19. The delay in line-sowing and the concomitant stagnation in weeding techniques has been the main cause of the wild-rice infestation registered in several polders. Considerable areas in Mopti Sud, Soufouroulaye, and - 46 - ANNEX 4 Page 5
Diambakourouwere abandoned by farmers and must be reclaimed through deep- ploughing and/or "faucardage"(cutting weeds underwater). Faucardagehas been carried out by farmers and by ORM on 2,943 ha in 1975/76 and, by farmers alone, on 2,095 ha in 1976/77. Since one harvest is lost on these reclaimed areas, this accounts for part of the differencebetween sown areas and har- vested areas (Table 2). Other reasons are hydraulic deficiencies (leading to insufficientflooding) or plagues (locusts,rats).
20. Marketed production doubled between 1974/75 and 1975/76 and in- creased by one third again in 1976/77 reaching 8,800 tons of paddy or 35% of production. Part of this consists of developmentlevies (120 kg/ha in 1976/ 77), the remainder of payment in kind for threshing services,and of paddy sold directly to OPAM. Marketed 'productionis milled at the Sevare rice mill (capacity15,000 tons of paddy) which was constructedwith the assis- tance of China. The mill has been put under the general supervisionof the Director of ORM and mills paddy from other rice-growingareas as well.
21. The equipmentpool of ORM (38 tractors with trailers,50 threshers) was considerablyunderutilized. ]Farmersmade few claims on tractor services for ploughing or harrowing (in 1975/76 and 1976/77, 500 ha and 1,000 ha, respectively). Tractors and trailers were used mainly for the transport of marketed quantitiesof paddy. Of the 8,800 tons marketed in 1976/77, 5,300 tons were threshed mechanically, which was a substantial progress compared to precedingyears. This quantity used only 20% of total thresh- ing capacity,however. Better training of operators,better coordination of field operationsand improved access to fields are preconditionsof a better utilization of threshers.
Seed Farm and AgriculturalResearc:h
22. The function of the seed farm is to produce Elite 3 seed for the renewal of seed used by farmers. Improved seeds are to be renewed every four years. A seed farm (200 ha) existed adjacent to the IRAT research station in the Ibetemi polder. Because of the hydrologicalproblems of that polder and because it is situated on the left bank of the Bani, separatedfrom the main polders, a new seed farm (220 ha) was created in the Mopti Nord polder. The seed farm is equippedwith a pump scheme to provide supplementarywater in case of unsatisfactoryrains or low flood levels. It started operationsin 1975/76.
23. Results were disappointing. In its first two years, the seed farm achieved yields of about 1.6 t/ha only in spite of intensivesoil prepara- tion and applicationof 100 kg/ha of phosphateof ammonia. The farm showed weed and wild rice infestationfrom its first year of operation. Also, the seed to be distributedto farmers was partiallyunsorted. These facts point to poor managementand insufficientsupervision by ORM.
24. Agriculturalresearch in ORM in recent years has concentratedon yield responses of various cultivationtechniques (spacing of seed, timing of ploughing,intensity of weeding) and on labor requirementsof a 4 ha rice - 47 - ANNEX 4 Page 6 farm with varying use of equipment. Methods of wild rice eradicationwere a further subject. Since the phasing out of the IRAT research program at Ibetemi, the executionof the research program has suffered from a lack of competent supervision. The new projectwill provide for closer supervision and a re-orientationof technical assistanceto this task.
D. Financial Status of ORM
25. The appraisal report estimated that a developmentlevy of 60 kg of paddy per ha, to be raised to 120 kg/ha after 5 years and to 180 kg/ha after 10 years, would be sufficientto pay for ORM recurrent costs and recover all direct investment. ORM has chosen,however, to raise the levy gradually by 20 kg/ha annually until the level of 180 kg/ha is reached. In 1976177, the levy was 120 kg/ha, in 1977/78 it will be raised to 140 kg/ha. Recov- ery rates have been around 85% in recent years which is a good performance consideringthe uneven yields experiencedby farmers as a consequenceof uneven flooding conditions.
26. Due to several factors (reductionin cultivablearea, steep increase in various elements of recurrentcosts) the original financingplan will no longer ensure financialself-sufficiency of the project at full development. The project's high cost of productionper ton (or per hectare) is not directly significantas ORM has not yet reached full development,and unit overheads may be expected to decrease. Still, levies higher than those presently applied must be foreseen. In addition,efforts must be made:
- to raise yields as rapidly as possible since the levy which farmers will be willing to pay will be a func- tion of incrementalproduction;
- to increase the productivityof existing staff and equipment;and
- to spread ORM overheads over a larger area.
E. Rate of Return
27. In the absence of the Mopti II Rice Project, the rate of return of the first Mopti Rice Project would be close to the appraisalestimate of 14%. This projection is based on the actual development of costs, cultivated areas and yields until 1977 and on the projectionsused in the "without the project" hypothesisfor the evaluationof the Mopti II Rice Project (Annex 9, Table 2). Increasesin cost, reductionsin cultivableareas and slightly lower yield assumptionsare offset by the substantialincrease in the eco- nomic price of rice since 1971. MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Development of Cultivable Area Estimate. of Mopti I Rice Project
Net Cultivable Area Net Area Difference Works Required to Arrive at Appraisal Revised Without from Revised Full Development of Polder Report 1971 Figure 1975 Difference Mopti II Area Revised Area
Mopti Sud 4,720 4,720 - 2,000 - 2,720 Deepening of intake channel; secondary channels; gates; DP 1/
Soufouroulaye 5,780 4,900 - 880 4,400 - 500 Widening of intake channel; drainage structures; DP
Ibetemi 300 400 + 100 175 - 225 Improvement of dike; DP
Mo-ti Nord U,Ou0 5,800 - 1,000 5,200 - 600 Deepening of intake channel; DP
Karbaye 710 710 - 514 - 196 DP
Diambakourou 570 570 - 275 - 295 DP C
Sofara 730 730 - 730 - Diglng of new intake channel
Syn 4,000 2,00n - 2,000 1,881 - 119 DP
Tenenkou 5,130 4,600 - 530 3,625 - 975 DP
Dia 2,350 1,770 - 580 500 - 1,270 DP
Total 31,090 26,200 - 4,890 19,300 - 6,900
1/ DP s Deep ploughing.
4-9 MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Development of Attributed, Sown and !Marvested Area, Yields and Paddy Production of the Mopti I Project
Agricultural Year 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78
Attributed Area (ha) 6,960 9,300 16,276 21,158 21,330 Number of Farm Units n.a 3,304 6,495 8,790 8,975 Attributed Area per Unit (ha) . 2.81 2.51 2.41 2.38
Sown Area (ha)
Appraisal Estimate 5,970 11,470 17,230 20,010 22,630 25,250 Revised Estimate 1/ 5,027 9,658 14,508 16,850 19,054 21,260 Actual 5,454 7,503 13,862 16,074 18,245 Actual in Z of Revised Estimate 108 78 95 95 96
Harvested Area (ha) 1,808 3,954 11,968 12,703 14,890 in % of Sown Area 333/ 53 3/ 86 79 82
Yields (kg/ha)
Appraisal Estimate 880 1,010 1,200 1,290 1,410 1,530 Actual per ha Sown 265 3/ 500 3/ 1,397 1,147 1,392 per ha harvested 800 948 1,618 1,451 1,705 Yields 2/ in % of Appraisal Estimate 33 50 116 89 99
Production (t)
Appraisal Estimate 5,254 11,585 20,676 25,929 31,908 38,633 Revised Estimate 1/ 4,426 9,755 17,409 21,832 26,867 32,529 Actual 1,446 3,749 19,361 18,440 25,400 Actual in % of revised Estimate 33 38 ill 84 95
1/ ReduaLag gown Areas and Production in the same proportion as total area to be developed, i.e. 26,200 be: 31,090 ha a 0.842. 2/ Per ha sown. 3 Dreught years. -. 50 - ANNEX4 Table 3
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Development of Equipment on Mopti I Rice Farms
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 -- 1975176 1976/77 1977/78
Sown Area (ha) 5,454 7,503 13,862 16,074 17,939 Number of Farms n.a 3,304 6,495 8,790 8,975
Ploughs 3,611 4,278 4,384 Harrows 419 507 571 Carts 324 388 413
In % of Farms 1/
Pairs of Oxen 64 57 n.a Ploughs 56 49 49 Harrows 6.5 5.8 6.4 Carts 5.0 4.4 4.6
Sown Area per Unit (ha)
Pairs of Oxen 3.35 3.20 n.a Ploughs 3.84 3.76 4.09
Ha. Sown per Farm n.a 2.27 2.13 1.83 2.00
1/ Since some farms have more than one pair of oxen or more than one item of equipment, the percentage does not express the share of equipped farms. MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Mopti I Rice Project: Breakdown of Participants by Farmers and Non-Farmers
Polder Farmers Other Professions Attributed Area (ha) Total Area Attributed (ha) Other No. No. % Farmers Other Farmers Other Total (in %)
Mopti-Nord 2,087 1,061 1/ 34 1.82 1.65 3,792 1,746 5,538 32
Mopti-Sud 566 374 40 2.84 2.32 1.606 866 2,472 35
Diambacourou 163 26 14 2.22 2.00 362 52 414 13
Soufouroulaye 1,203 90 7 3.74 -2.09 4,497 189 4,686 4
Karbaye 189 42 18 2.82 2.15 534 90 624 14
Ibetemi 59 127 68 2.37 2.07 140 264 404 65
Dia 194 92 32 1.75 2.14 340 197 537 37
Tenenkou 1,027 113 10 3.11 2.09 3,199 236 3,435 7
Sofara 332 118 26 1.64 1.62 545 191 736 26
Syn 870 106 11 2.37 2.43 2,061 252 2,313 11
Total 6,690 2,149 24 2.55 1.90 17,076 4,083 21,159 19
1/ Breakdown for Mopti-Nord: 368 civil servants, 387 traders, 111 artisans, 62 fishermen, 15 pastoralists, 50 "religieux", 17 pensioners, 51 non-identified and sundry occupations.
N.B. Nearly three quarters of the non-farmers have holdings in the three polders closest to Mopti, i.e. Mopti-Nord (50%), Mopti-Sud (17%) and Ibetemi (6%). The share of non-farmers in the remaining seven polders is 16 percent & in numbers and 10 percent in area attributed. mxt MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Distribution of Holdings per Family in the Mopti I Rice Project (1975/76)
Less Farm Size than (ha attributed) 21-25 16-20 11-15 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 ha
Number of Farm Units 1/ 4 13 77 45 35 57 90 235 265 7,969 Cumulative 17 94 139 174 231 321 556 821 in % of Total Number . 0.2 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.7 6.3 9.3 90.7
Number of ha 2/ 92 234 951 450 315 456 630 1,410 1,325 15,295, Cumulative 326 1,277 1,727 2,042 2,498 3,128 4,538 5,863 in % of Total Area 0.4 1.5 6.0 8.2 9.7 11.8 14.8 21.4 27.7 72.3
1/ Unpublished data of ORM. 2/ Derived from the above data. less than 0.05%.
(DX> Iji> - 53 - ANNEX4 Table 6
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Adoption of Cultivation Techniques in the Mopti I Rice Project (in Z of area sown)
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78
End of Season Ploughing 23 42
Repeat Ploughing in Z of End-of-Season Ploughing 57 84
Harrowing 50 46 58
Line Sowing 1.2 6.0
Weeding 68 65 55
Fertilizer 2.0
Improved Seed 0 38 90 99 100 MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Cultivated Area and Cultivation Techniques Used in 1976/?7 the _opti I Rise Prol%, (November1976)
A.gri erationa Eecuted (ha) Polder Attributed husber of Average Number of Sown Area Sown End of Rept Area Farm Units Sisa of Plot Ea=n Units Are per Farmer Season Ploughing (ha) Season Sowing (ha) Cultivating (ba) (ha) Ploughing Ploughing hopti Bud 2,541 968 2.63 689 1,618 2.35 421 439 1,197 211 54 386 Ibetemi 403 186 2.17 178 348 1.96 59 44 289 120 34 120 umiouroulaye 4,oo6 1,293 3.62 1,145 4,085 3.57 2,323 2,260 1,762 3,026 204 2,279 Nopti Nord 5,600 3,155 1.77 3,155 5,200 1.65 2,627 1,689 2,573 3,223 297 3,692 Karbaye 624 231 2.70 231 514 2.23 402 402 112 490 45 284 Di" bauourou 441 210 2.10 174 274 1.57 93 88 181 255 31 113 Sofara 730 450 1.62 444 728 1.64 455 421 273 728 90 513 Syn 2,319 976 2.38 930 1,881 2.02 699 706 1,182 1,484 253 17 T*nenkou 3,465 1,220 2.84 1,220 2,904 2.38 473 278 2,431 794 36 2,129 Dia 535 286 1.87 229 387 1.69 19 19 368 34 5 1i1 Total 21,344 8,975 2.38 8,395 17,939 2.14 7,571 6,346 10,368 10,365 1,049 9,674 N.B. Actual areas sown were slightly higher than estimated in November 1976 and ehown in Table 2.
Source: O8N - 55 - ANNEX 5
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Project Components
1. The four new polders (8,800 ha) to be developedwere selected from the 40,000 ha studied by IER accordingto the following criteria:
- proximity to ORM's headquartersand to other major polders;
- availability of population;
- ease of access; .
- external economies, and
- cost per hectare.
2. Important external economieswill be derived from the construction of the two largestpolders (7,700ha) as the structures required for their flooding substantiallyimprove the flooding of two adjacent polders con- structed under Credit 277-MLI. The four polders selected rank high on all counts except costs per hectare, where they occupy medium positions.
3. The nature of the consolidationinvestments to be carried out in some of the Mopti I polders is indicatedin Table 1. MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
PROGRAM OF CIVIL WORKS
Polders Type of Work Schedule of Execution
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
A. Polders Improved under Credit 277-MLI
1. Mopti Nord Deepening of Bassina channel x Laterite cover on dikes (10.0 km) x
2. Mopti Sud Laterite on dike Tibo-Dabi (6.3 km) x Deepening of intake channel x Digging of secondary channels x Gates for two existing intake x structures 3. Soufouroulaye Widening of intake channel x x Two drainage structures x x Improvement of internal drainage x x
4. Ibetemi Improvement of dike; gates for x @ existing intake structures 5. Syn-Sarantono I Access road 1/ X
G. Dia- Tenenkou Gates for existing intake structures x 7. 30faa Digging of intake channel x B. Existing Polders NDt Improved under Credit 277-HLI 2/ none
C. New Polders
1. Saremala (3,120 ha) Dike, intake and drainage structures, x x
2. Ouro-Nema (4,105 ha) i i" " " x x
3. Tiroguel (1,050 ha) " VI i x x
i. Torokoro ( 525 ha) " X x
J S rves also an access to Beugoula polder net Iicluded in Credit 277-#LI. See footnote 2 . / Bougoula polder (2.085 ha) and 2,000 ha of the Syn-Sarantomo polder originally included in Credit 277-,fLIbut excluded $ | subsequently because civil works financed under that credit were only sufficient to ensure adequate flooding of 2,000 ham X instead of the 4,000 ha planned. Additional civil works for the remaining 2,000 ha as well as for Bougoula will be I > executed in 1978 with financing provided by ADB. See also under B in Tables 2 and 3 below. 3/ Includes a 485 ha extansion of the adjacent Diambakourou polder developed under Credit 277-MLI. MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
PROGRAMOF DBP-PLOUGHING (ha)
Polder Cultivable I Deep-Ploughing Schedule of execution Area if Executed Proposed under for 1978 1979 1980 198. 1982 Cr. 277,-MLI Apibti II -
A. Polders Improved under Cr. 277-MLI
1. Mopti-Sud 4,720 - 3,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 2. ufoufownmUye 4,900 1,527 1,000 1,000 3. Ibetemi 400 - 300 300 4. Mopti-Nord 5,800 2,658 2,000 2,000 5. Yarbaye 710 - 500 500 6. Diambakourou 570 260 400 400 7. Sofara 730 444 - 8 Syn-Sarantomo I 2,000 2,000 _ 9g Tenenkou 6,6oo 2,004 1,000 500 500 10. Dia 1,770 - 1,500 500 1,000
Sub-total 26,200 8,893 10,200 5,300 2,000 2,900
B. Existing Polders not Improved Under Credit 2T7-MLI 2/
1. Bougoula 2,085 - 2,085 2,085 2. Syn-Sarantomo II 2,000 - 2,000 2,000
Sub-total 4,085 - 4,085 4,o85
C. New Polders
1. Saremala 3,120 - 3,120 1,000 2,120 2. Ouro-Nema 3 4,105 - 4,105 1,300 2,805 3. Tiroguel 1,050 - 1,050 1,050 4. Torokoro 525 - 525 525
Sub-total 8,800 - 84800 - 2,350 4,330 2,120
Total Deep-Ploughing 39,085 8,893 23,085 5,300 8,435 7,230 2,120
For' polders listed under Section A., revieed figures. 0 ? See footnote 2 of Table 1. 3/ Includes an extension of 485 ha to Diambakourou polder. ANNEX 5 -58 - Table 3
KALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Construction of Offices, Houses, Sheds and Stores
Total Required Existing To be added Area 2 under Moati II2 (ha) Number mZ Number m Number m
a) Sheds for SCAER Equipment, 1 , Fertilizer. Seeds. etc. -
A. Mopti I Polders 26,200 - no additions required - B. Other existing Polders Bougoula 2,085 2 150 - - 2 150 Syn-Sarantomo II 2,000 2 I1N - - 2 150 C. New Polders Sareuala 3,120 3 225 - - 3 225 Ouro-Nema 4,105 4 300 - - 4 300 Tiroguel 1,050 1 75 - - 1 75 Torokoro 525 1 75 - - 1 75
Subtotal 13 975 - - 13 975
b) Sheds for ORMEquipment 2/
A. Mopti I Folders 26,200 22 1,155 6 315 16 840 B. Other existing Polders Bougoula 2,085 2 105 - - 2 105 Syn- Sarantomo II 2,000 2 105 - - 2 105 C. New Polders Saremala 3,120 3 157 - - 3 157 Ouro-Nema 4,105 3 157 - - 3 157 Tiroguel 1,050 1 53 - - 1 53 Torokoro 525 1 53 - - 1 53
Subtotal 34 1,785 6 315 28 1,470
c) ORMMechan. Workshops Savare 1 600 Tenenkou 1 128
2 728
d) Storage SPace for Paddv2
A. Mopti I Polders 26,200 4,900 2,775 2,125 B. Other existing Polders Bougoula 2,085 390 39° Syn- Sarantomo II 2,000 375 375 C. New Polders Saremala 3,120 585 585 Ouro-Nema 4,105 770 770 Tiroguel 1,050 200 200 Torokoro 525 100 100
Subtotal 7,320 2,775 4,5,5
e) Offices and Houses
A. Mopti I Polders 1 Office Mopti- Nord Houses for "Chefs de ll Casier" 4/ B. Other existing Polders House "Chef de Cagier" 1 Bougoula C. New Polders Houses "Chefs de Casier" 4 4 Polders D. House with office and 1 shed for ORM Representative at BaakoI/ E. Houses for techn_ aaat. 2
F. Staff training centers 6p 2
2 1/ One shed at 75 m per 1,000 ha. 2/ One shed of 52.5 m (5x10.5) for 1,200 ha (3 threshers, 1 tractor). Assaiing 45Z of full production (2 t/ha) to be marketed; storage requirements 50Z of marketed total or 450 kg/ha. Storage 3/ 2 capacity 2.4 tl . Thus 1 *2 storage space for 5.3 ha under cultivation. Number of stores is not specified since the distribution of additional storage space between the polders and the rice mill will depend on operational requirements. 4/ Including one house for director of seed farm. 5/ Represertative serves as expeditor and entrepot for deliveries to ORM. 6/ In Mopti and Tenenkou. -59- ANNEX 5 Appendix I Page 1
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Functional Literacy Campaign
1. Functional literacy training in the local languages (mainlyBaabara to some extent Peulh) started on a larger scale in 1969 when the Operations de Developpementwere launched. Initially supported by UNDP/Unesco, the movement has spread considerably,and functional literacy courses are now a feature of seven ongoing Operations including several of the IDA - financed projects. Government created a Direction Nationale de l'Alphabetisation Fonctionnelleet de la LinguistiqueAppliquee (DNAFLA)which is attached to the Ministry of Education, and has appointed able staff to supervise it. DNAFLA has a network of regional sub-unitswhich, however, are severely limited in their activitiesby lack of funds wherever they are not supported by foreign sources of finance.
2. Functional literacy courses typically comprise about 500 hours of instruction over a 2 year period, mainly in the dry season. Subjects are taken from the daily life of farmers and also include arithmetic. After 2 years, participantsshould be able to read the language in which they have been taught and to perform calculationsrelated to crop marketing and credit use. Courses are held in the village, mostly in a traditionalstruc- ture built for the purpose. Instructors are taken, to the extent possible, from among literate members of the village community. The cost per literate is estimated to be about US$40, which compares favorablywith the cost of traditional primary education (US$860).
3. A recent evaluationnoted the increasing interest on the side of Operations and a decrease of Government officials' initial opposition to the use of written local languages in official communications. The evaluation showed up the main problems encounteredin the first years, in particular:
(a) lack of adequate teaching materials in local languages;
(b) recruitmentproblems and, following therefrom, inadequate supervision of programs; and
(c) organizationaldifficulties due to lack of experience,and lack of support from part of the administration.
It has become apparent that farmers having successfullycompleted a functional literacy course are more receptive to extensionadvice and are better equipped to understand marketing and credit operations. ANNEX 5 - 60 - Appendix 1 Page 2
4. The proposed Mopti II Rice Project would provide support for func- tional literacy centers in the project area. Between 1978 and 1982, 220 cen- ters will be operated, each for a duration of 2 years and providing functional literacy instructionfor 2 times 3 months annually. Each center, or class, will be attended by about 25 part:Lcipantsof whom 15 are expected to attain the degree of literacy aimed at.
5. The adult literacy campcign will be fully integratedin ORM but will receive pedagogical guidance (curriculumdevelopment) and monitoring from the DNAFLA headquarters. A Coordinatorwill be appointed as a Section Chief of ORM. This coordinatorwould be the local representativeof DNAFLA. Under his direction, there will be 9 heads of Zones d'AlphabetisationFonc- tionnelle (ZAF). The heads of ZAF are responsible for relationswith vil- lage committees, the setting up of Adult Literacy Centers, the training of instructors (animateurs)and the supply of teaching materials and audio- visual means. Instructorswill receive a two week training and be invited to annual refresherand improvement courses.
6. Implementationwill follow the time-table shown below:
- June 1978: evaluation of the 38 existing centers and general preparation;
- 1st semester 1979: 20 centers;
- 2nd semester 1979/lst semester 1980: 50 centers;
- 2nd semester 1980/lst semester 1981: 50 centers;
- mid-1981: intermediateevaluation of results;
- 2nd semester 1981/1st semester 1982: 50 centers;
- 2nd semester 1982/lst sernester1983: 50 centers;
- mid 1983: final evaluation. - 61 - ANNEX 5 Appendix 1 Page J
7. Implementationwould be as follows:
AppointmentHeads Refresher Training of New of ZAF Courses Instructors
1978 3 48 -
1979 1 - 40
1980 2 40 100
1981 1 100 100
1982 2 100 100
1983 - 100 100
8. Basic cost elements are:
- Salary (incl. allowances)head of ZAF MF 576,000/year(US$1,200);
- Cost of training I instructorMF 11,000 (US$22);
- Cost of refresher course per instructor: MF 5,500 (US$11);
- Cost of equipping 1 center: MF 66,000 (US$135);
- Operating cost per center: MF 11,000 (US$22) annually.
A summary of total cost is at Table 1.
9. The Coordinator'ssalary would be paid by Government while the proj- ect would finance the following elements:
- salaries and allowances of heads of ZAF;
- allowances of the Coordinator;
- training costs of instructors;
- refresher courses for instructors;
- one vehicle for the Coordinator;
- one mobylette for each head of ZAF; - 62 - ANNEX 5 Appendix I Page 4 operatingexpenditure for vehicles; office equipment; and teaching materials. -63 - ANNEX 5 Appendix i MALI Table 1
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Costs of Adult Literacy Pro-ram
1978 1/ 1979 190 1l9 1932 Total
Personnel
Coordinator 315 540 540 540 765 Driver 35 60 60 60 85 Reads of ZAF 1,008 2,304 2.880 3,456 6,528 Training of Instructors - 990 1,100 1,100 1,650 Refresher Courses 264 - 495 550 550 1,622 3,894 5,075 5,706 9,57S 25,875
Equipment
Vehicle 5,000 Office of coordinator 850 Offices of ZAF 504 168 336 168 336 Mobylettes 660 220 440 440 440 Centers - 2,970 3.300 3,300 4,950 7,014 3,358 4,076 3,908 5,726 24,082
Operating Cost
Vehicle of coordinator 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,830 Office of coordinator 300 300 300 300 425 Mobylettes ZAF 300 400 600 700 1,200 Centers ZAF 275 550 825 1.100 1,375 2,875 3,250 3,725 4,100 5,830 19,780
Support DNAILA
Pedagogical support 675 1,050 1,500 1,500 Evaluation 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 3,175 3,550 4,000 4,000 14,725
11,511 13,677 16,426 17,714 25,134 84,463 2/
1/ June 1978-may 1979. 2/ Including taxes. - 64- ANNEX 5 Appendix II
T Iff)PTIIT -' -72 .. ECT
Applied Agricultural Research
1. Applied research (recherche d'accompagnement) will be carried out by ORM with scientific guidance and control by IER and the West Africa Rice Development Association (WARDA); the latter organization has taken over the rice research station in the Mopti area which until 1976 was operated by the French research institute IRAT.
2. Research will concentrate on the following three subjects:
a) Socio-economic studies aiming at the development of a model farm with optimal relations between farm size, labor availability and equipment used. Besides the operation of such a model farm, the program comprises the close supervision of selected farms which have typical characteristics;
b) Within the framework of the national agricultural research program, ORM will carry out field trials (essais multilocaux) for several rice varieties in each zone of the project area;
c) Research on appropriate cultivation techniques and implements, which was at the center of the applied research program under the first Mopti Rice Project, will be reduced and limited to supplementary trials which are to provide further confirmation of the results obtained.
3. The main cost elements financed under the project are summarized below (base costs in December 1977 prices):
FM million
- Field trials (5 years x 30 trials) 17.5
- Socio-economic survey 29.0
- Farm equipment and operating expenditure 57.5
Total 104.0 - 65 - ANNEX 5 Appendix III Page 1
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
AgriculturalCredit
1. On-farm investmentin the project area consists of the following three items (Amnex 7, Table 10):
- Oxen - Farm implements (ploughs,harrows, tool-bars,carts) - Fertilizer.
2. Farm implementsand fertilizerare supplied by SCAER, with ORM acting as SCAER's agent against a fee of 5% on sales. Very little fertilizer having been used in ORM before 1977, SCAER sales were mainly related to farm implements. As Governmentplans to transfer SCAER's functions to the individ- ual Operationsde Developpementin the course of 1978 (para. 2.13), the proj- ect will provide agriculturalcredit in order to enable ORM to effectively replace SCAER as a supplier of inputs and a source of credit.
3. Credit will be required,in nearly equal parts, for implements and fertilizer(Table 1). Oxen are generally procured by farmers directly from cattle traders. As this appears to work satisfactorily,no change is envisaged in this procedure,and oxen are, in consequence,not covered by the credit program.
4. A credit fund of ME 220 million (US$450,000)will be put at ORM's disposal 1/. Fertilizercredit will be short term (less than one year) and will cover the total cost to farmers. To the extent that present fertilizer subsidies continue,Government has given assurancesthat ORM will be reim- bursed for the differencesbetween the cost price and the subsidizedprices charged to farmers. Credit for equipment purchaseswill cover 70% of the price to farmers, with repaymentof 35% of the principal in each of the following two years. The rate of interest charged would be 10% per annum on the amount outstanding.
5. Since ORM has been acting as credit agent for SCAER, distributing supplies, collectingrepayments and keeping records on outstandingdebts, the complete transfer of responsibilitiesto ORM is not expected to present
1/ The sum of FM 220 million is arrived at by applying a physical con- tingency of 10% and the price contingencieslisted in Annex 7, Table 12, to the FM 160.2 million shown in Table 1 of this Appendix. -66- ANNEX5 Appendix III Page 2 organizationalproblems. The micro-computerwhich is to be procured under the project, will help ORM accountantsto administer the credit program with a minimum of supplementarystaff. The interest rate of 10Z should be sufficientto cover any additionaloperating expenditureas well as losses from bad debts.
6. ORM would be authorized to draw on the Special Account (para. 5.11) for the pre-financingof farm equipment and fertilizer to be delivered to farmers. MALI
MOPTI It RICE PROJECT
Agricultural Credit Needs (FM Million) 1/
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1978-82
On-Farm Investment at Cost Prices 2/ 73.1 191.9 178.2 263.6 274.0 980.8 Minus Oxen 2/ 35.9 100.3 65.7 93.1 62.3 357.3 Items to be financed under the Credit Program 37.2 91.6 112.5 170.5 211.7 623.5 Minus Subsidies 2/ 7.1 16.3 25.1 39.7 58.6 146.8
Items to be financed under the Credit Program, at Cost to Farmers 30.1 75.3 87.4 130.8 153.1 476.7 of which: fertilizer (7.0) (13.4) (28.9) (47.0) (78.6) (174.9) implements (23.1) (61.9) (58.5) (83.8) (74.5) (301.8) a) Fertilizer 7.0 13.4 28.9 47.0 78.6 174.9 Credit, incremental 7.0 6.4 15.5 18.1 31.6 78.6 Farmers' contribution - 7.0 13.4 28.9 47.0 96.3 b) Implements 23.1 61.9 58.5 83.8 74.5 301.8 Down payments (30%) 6.9 18.6 17.6 25.1 22.3 90.5 Repayments 3/ - 8.1 29.8 42.1 49.7 129.7 Credit, incremental 16.2 35.2 11.1 16.6 2.5 81.6
Total credit 23.2 41.6 26.6 34.7 34.1 160.2
Summary of On-Farm Investment, by Source of Finance
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1978-82 % %
Farmers' Contribution 42.8 134.0 126.5 189.2 181.3 673.8 69 of which: oxen 35.9 100.3 65.7 93.1 62.3 357.3 (36) fertilizer and implements 6.9 33.7 60.8 96.1 119.0 316.5 (33) 50 Subsidy " " " 7.1 16.3 25.1 39.7 58.6 146.8 15 24 Credit " " if 23.2 41.6 26.6 34.7 34.1 160.2 16 26 Total Cost of On-Farm Investment 73.1 191.9 178.2 263.6 274.0 980.8 100 (without *ene) (37.1) (9L.Q (112.5) (170.5) (211.7) (623.5) (100)
1/ Base cost, in constant prices of December 1977 2/ See Annex 7, Table 10. D 3/ 35X in each of the following two years. tM . - 68 - ANNEX 5 Appendix IV Page 1
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Terms of Referencefor TechnicalAssistants
1. Accountant
The applicant should be a member of an internationallyrecognized accountingbody with at least 5 years experiencein a senior position. The applicant should also be familiar with modern data processing systems.
The main responsibility of the accountant will be to guide and control accountingwork and to train local personnelwhich will take over his functions at the end of the project period. His functions would be in particular:
- to draw up the annual baLance sheet;
- to prepare the operationsbudget and to estimate liquidity needs;
- to prepare disbursement claims for the financing institutions;
- to set up a data processing system (based on a micro-computer to be procured) for maintaining the accounts of some 13,000 participating farm units;
- to calculate costs of production and costs of various services provided by ORM;
- to select and train local accountants and assis- tant accountants.
The accountant would be head of the Administrative and Financial Division and would be directly responsible to the Director of ORM.
Techaical assistance for this position would be required for 4 years.
2. Agricultural Extension Specialist
Technical assistance for extension is required in order to improve the transmission of extension work theres to participating farmers; to analyze ANNEX 5 - 69 - Appendix IV Page 2 the technical,economic and social reasons which retard acceptanceof exten- sion proposals;to give practical training to extensionworkers; and to or- ganize campaign activitiessuch as line-sowingand threshing.
Applicantsshould have a recognizeduniversity degree or equiva- lent professionalqualification and at least 5 years experiencein agricul- tural extensionwork in Africa, and have a good knowledge of rice cultivation in particular.
Specific functions of the extension specialistare:
- to prepare with the Production Section of ORM the annual campaign plan;
- to propose and initiatedemonstration plots;
- to take part in the setting up and in the control of applied research experiments;
- to take part in the identificationand trial of new types of equipment;
- to explore the reasons for acceptance or refusal by farmers of recommendedcultivation practices or types of equipment;
- to ensure the on-the-job training of ORM's exten- sion personnel;
- to improve the methods of control of extensionwork and of importantcampaign activitiessuch as har- vesting and threshing.
The extensionspecialist would be attached to the ProductionSection of ORM but would be responsibledirectly to the Director.
Technicalassistance for this positionwould be needed for 5 years.
3. AgriculturalEconomist
Applicants should have at least 5 years experiencein rural areas of Af ica. They should not have a purely economic orientationbut also be famil ar with methods of social research. Applicantsshould have a univer- sity degree in agriculturaleconomics and be trained in statisticalanaly- sis. 70 ANNEX 5 Appendix IV Page 3
The agriculturaleconomist's functions would be in particular:
to develop the observationtools of the Evaluation Unit;
to carry out socio-economDicsurveys among the par- ticipatingfarmers;
to study the different cultivationtechniques pro- posed by the project and to analyze, in close coop- eration with the extension services, the economic results at the farm level;
- to interpretand control statisticalresults such as yield estimatesderived from samples;
- to review annually the campaign results from an economic point of view.
The agriculturaleconomist would be directly responsibleto the Director of ORM. His services would be needed for 2-3 years.
4. Workshop Manager
Applicants should be experiencedmechanics and should also have managerial experience at the workshop level. Applicants should be thoroughly familiarwith agriculturalmachinery.
The functionsof the workshop manager include in particular:
- to ensure the functioningof vehicles and agricultural machinery;
- to maintain stationaryequipment such as electric generators,pumps, air conditioners,etc. as well as buildings;
- to train maintenancepersonnel and drivers;
- to organize fuel supplies and maintenanceservices in the field for agriculturalmachinery engaged in campaign activities;
- to order spare parts and l:ocontrol the spare parts inventoryas well as fuel supplies;
- to control the log-booksof vehicle and engine drivers; ANNEX 5 - 71 - Appendix IV Page 4
to supply the data required for the computationof vehicle operating costs and operating performance of farm machinery.
The workshop manager would be directly responsible to the Director of ORM.
His services would be required for 5 years. - 72 - ANNEX 6
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Assistanceto the Rural Works Department, Bamako
1. The Study Bureau of the Rural Works Department of the Ministry of Rural Developmenthas an autonomousbudget. While salaries of technicians belonging to the civil service are borne by Government, the Bureau is expected to cover its operating expenditure (auxiliarystaff, vehicles, supplies,etc.) from revenue derived from planning and supervisingcivil works carried out on Government account. The Study Bureau's budget over the last few years, by main categoriesof revenue and expenditure,is at Table 1. The Study Bureau is headed by a Malian engineer. It has three Divisions (Works, Buildings, Topographic Services)of which the most important one, Works, is headed by a senior French engineer. The Study Bureau also has an outpost at Segou. Total staff is close to 50 of which half are engineers and the other half topographictechnicians.
2. The Study Bureau has been steadily expanding its range of activi- ties and is thereby increasinglysubstituting expensive foreign consultancy services. The Study Bureau has been assisted not only by French technical assistance (5 expatriateengineers) but also by other agencies. It has received some equipmentunder the IDA-financedDrought Relief Fund Project (Credit 443-MLI). Under the same credit, the Study Bureau has been charged to study and prepare several small irrigationprojects to be implemented, under that Credit, in the 1st, 5th and 6th Regions. The Bureau is also engaged in supervisoryactivities for Credits 491, 538, and 277-MLI (see Table 1).
3. Under the proposed credit, the Study Bureau would:
- be provided with additionaloffice space (a second storey on its present premises) and some equipment;
- receive funds for travel scholarshipswhich will enable Malian techniciansto study projects in other countries and to receive additionalspecialized training;
- receive funds for the execution of further studies on irrigationprojects.
A budget proposal submitted by the Public Works Departmentis at Table 2.
4. The studies proposed have been approved by the Association. The Study Bureau will sub-contractstudles on the economic and social aspects of planned projects to the Institut d'EconomieRurale (IER) of the Ministry of Rural Development. - 73 _ ANNEX 6 Table I
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Budget of Study Bureau, Rural Works Department (1976)
FM Million
Revenue 101.3
A. Rural Works (Studies or Supervision) 62.4 Studies and Supervision for EDF at Operation Riz Segou and Operation Riz Sikasso 41.0 Studies and Supervision for IDA- financed livestock project (Credit 538-MLI) and Operation Riz Mopti (Credit 277-MLI) 16.5 Studies financed by FAC 4.5 Studies financed by other sources 0.4
B. Buildings 38.9
Supervision IDA-financed projects OACV (Credit 491-MLI) and livestock (Credit 538-MLI) 31.8 FAC-financed projects 1.2 USAID financed projects 4.6 Other sources of finance 1.3
Expenditure 100.9
Civil servants - /a Other Personnel 11.2 Vehicles - operating cost 34.8 - depreciation 17.4 Supplies 20.5 Miscellaneous 17.0
Development of Study Bureau Budget 1973-76
1973 FM 57 million 1974 FM 68 million 1975 FM 83 million 1976 FM 101 million
/a Government Budget ANNEX 6 74 - Table 2
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Assistance to Rural Works Department
Proposed Utilization of Funds
I. BUILDINGS FM Million 1/
Extension to Study Bureau Office 39.0
II. EQUIPMENT
a) 1 Landrover Stat-ton Wagon 5.0 5 Landrover Pick Ups 20.0 1 Renault R4 2.0
27.0
b) Office Furniture, Air Conditioning etc. for Bamako, Gao, and Kayes Offices 34.0
c) Typewriters, drawing and reproduction equipment,etc. 7.0
Subtotal 68.0
III. STUDY TRAVEL
1 Engineer and 1 Tecb.iician for 6 months to SAED, Senegal 5.0 4 Engineers 2 weeks to Niger 3.0 2 Engineers for 6 monchs to SOGREAHStudy Bureau, France 8.0 5 Engineers 2 weeks to visit rural works in Upper Volta 2.0 1 Engineer 6 months tr-aining in rural architecture 2.0 1 documentarian 6 months training in France 2.0 Purchase of documents 3.0
Subtotal 25.0
IV. PROJECT STUDIES
1. Kayes: Survey of water sources 25.0
2. Sikasso Study of proposed Lea plantation (Lobouala) 15.0 Study of rice plains Sikasso North 27.0
3. Mopti Study of 50 small *lams in Dogon country 75.0 Study of 10 "mares" 10.0 Continuation of ntidies on the 'a±u:l du 3m" (17th phase) 74,0
159.0
4. Gao Pedological, geotechnical and hydraulic studies of Lac Horo, and study of access road 72.5
5. General study of development priorities of different flood plains in the 5th and 6th Region 5.0
6. Unallocated (for stuidies to be determined) 56.5
Subltotal 360.0
Totatl 492.0
1/ In prices of December 1977 AUll 7 75~~~ - 75 -
MALI
MOPTIII RICE PROJECT
Project Coat - SŽtnay Table (in FM tMillion]
Project Yeer 8/ 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1978-82 In Porign Local Taxes 1978-82 In Includ. CS5 Not of USS Taxes Million Taxes Million
Civil Works BaEs Cheta 2/ - 1,987 2.009 830 - 4z82 90 2,43 869 1,013 3,012 7c Physical Contingencies 151 - 298 301 124 - 723 1.48 441 130 152 571 1.17 Price Contingencies / - 430 654 252 - 1,336 2.73 815 240 282 1,055 2.15 Total - 2,715 2,964 1,206 _ 6,885 14.05 4,199 1,239 1,447 5,438 11.10
Baw v%eOo _- 336 535 458 134 1,463 2.99 907 234 322 1,141 2.33 Price Contingencies - 63 151 177 67 458 0.93 284 73 101 357 0.73 Total - 399 686 635 201 1,921 3.92 1,191 307 423 1,498 3.06
Buildiogs Bass Coeta 326 397 - - - 723 1.49 253 354 116 607 1,24 Physical Contingencies 5% i6 20 - - - 36 0.07 13 17 6 30 o.o6 Price Contingencies 31 78 - _ - 109 0.22 38 53 18 91 0.19 Ttolt 373 495 - - - 868 1.77 304 424 140 728 1.49
ingi.eering and S.pervision 98 - 239 0,49 Bass Costs 65 79 66 26 3 239 o.49 141 Price Cootingencies 5 12 16 8 1 42 0.09 25 17 - 42 0.09 Total 70 91 82 34 4 281 o.58 166 115 - 281 0.58
Vehicles and Epuipment Bese Cost 279 91 458 140 122 1,090 2.22 850 83 157 933 1.90 Physical Contingencies 5% 14 5 23 7 6 55 0.11 43 4 8 47 0.10 Price Contingencies 22 15 1i4 47 53 251 0.51 196 19 36 215 o.44 Total 315 111 595 194 181 1,396 2.85 1,089 106 201 1,195 2.44
Adult lit-r--y - Audio Viul Progra Bane Cost 27 23 26 23 30 129 0.26 77 20 32 97 0.20 Physic-l Contingencies 10% 3 2 3 2 3 13 0.03 8 2 3 10 0.02 Price Contingencies 2 4 7 8 14 35 0.07 21 5 9 26 0.05 Tot.l 32 29 36 33 47 177 o.36 1o6 27 44 133 0.27
nlited Agricltural Rsse rch Base Cost 21 21 21 21 20 i04 0.21 5o 36 18 86 0.18 Phyifcal Cooting-nnioa itY 2 2 2 2 2 10 0.02 5 3 2 8 0.02 Price Contingencien 2 3 5 7 9 26 0.05 13 9 4 22 0.04 Total 25 26 28 30 31 140 0.29 68 48 24 116 0.24 Incre1s.t.ltStaf Bne Coot 47 48 50 54 56 255 0.52 - 255 - 255 0.52 Price Contingenciso 2 4 7 10 13 36 0.07 - 36 _ 36 0.07 Totol 49 52 57 64 69 291 0.59 - 291 - 291 0.59
Incresntal Operoting Cost 13aneOoet 59 64 72 82 88 365 0.74 173 129 63 302 0.62 Physicol Contingencies 10% 6 6 7 8 9 36 0.07 17 13 6 30 o.06 Price Contingencise 6 13 22 35 48 124 0.25 59 44 21 103 o.21 Tot ce 71 83 101 125 145 525 1.06 249 i86 90 435 o.89 Technical Aseistance Bass Cost 150 190 150 116 81 647 1.33 647 - - 647 1.33 Price Conting ncies 1i4 28 42 45 40 169 0.34 169 - - 169 0.34 Total 164 178 192 16i 121 816 1.67 816 - 816 1.67 On-FPrn lo-ct.ent Boss Coot 73 192 178 264 274 981 2.00 521 460 - 981 2.00 Physinol Contingencies 10% 7 19 18 26 28 98 0.20 52 46 - 98 0.20 Price Contingencies 6 31 46 94 126 303 0.62 16i 142 - 303 0.62 Total 86 242 242 384 428 1,382 2.82 734 648 - 1,382 2.82
5ubtotl Mopti 2I BiteProject Baae Oot i,o47 3388 3,566 2,014 808 10,822 22.10 6,562 2,538 1,721 9,100 18.57 Physical Contingencies 48 352 354 169 48 971 1.98 579 215 177 794 1.62 Price Contingencise 90 681 i,o64 683 371 2,889 5.89 1,781 638 471 2,419 4.94 Total 1,185 4,421 4,983 2,866 1,227 14,682 29.96 8,922 3,391 2,369 12,313 25.13 Assistance to RWDBka.so Bass Cost 153 129 110 95 5 492 1.00 310 141 41 451 0.92 Physical Contingencies 5% 8 6 6 5 . 25 0.05 16 7 2 23 0.05 Price Contingencies 12 21 27 32 2 94 0.19 59 27 8 86 0.17 Total 173 156 143 132 7 611 1.25 385 175 51 560 1.14
Total Prject Cost Bass Cost 1,200 3,517 3,675 2,109 813 11,314 23.10 6,872 2,679 1,762 9,551 19.49 Physical Contingencies 56 358 360 174 48 996 2.03 595 222 179 817 1.67 Price Contingencies 102 702 1,091 715 373 2,983 6.08 i,840 665 479 2,505 5.11 Total 1,358 4,577 5s126 2,998 1,234 15,293 31.21 9,307 3,566 2,420 12,873 26.27
1/ June 1 - MBy31. 8/ In prices of Deceambr 1977. S/se. Table 12. MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
PRO.JECTCOST /1
CIVIL WORKS (FM Millions)
Foreign Local Project Year /2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1978-82 Exchange /5 Cost /5 Taxes /5
A. Mopti I Polders /3
Mopti Nord 209 209 Mopti Sud 248 248 Soufouroulaye 95 96 191 Ibetesi 51 51 Syn-Sarantomo I 98 98 Dia-Tenenkou 132 132 Sofara 74 74 Subtotal 907 6 1,003 B. Other Existing Polders - --
C. New Polders 4/
Saremala 757 756 1,513 Ouro-Nema 856 856 1,712 Tiroguel 224 225 449 Torokoro 75 74 149 Subtotal 1,080 1,913 830 3,823
Total Civil Works 1,987 2,009 830 4,826 2,943 869 1,013 61% 18% 21%
/1 In prices of Dec. 1977 including taxes. /2 June 1 - May 31. /3 See Annex 5, Table 1. H X /4 See Annex 5, Table 2. s /5 IER, Annex 15, Table 3.
IER, Etude de Factibilite du projet Riz Mopti, 2e phase; hereafter quoted as IER. Annex 15, Table 3. MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Project Cost 1/ Deep Ploughing (MF Millions)
Project Year 2/ 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 ].978-82 Foreign Local Taxes 5/ Exchange 5/ Cost 5/
A. IoptiI Polders 3/ 10,200 ha 4/ 336.0 126.8 183d 646.6
B. Other Existing Polders 3/ Bougoula 2,085 ha 132.2 132.2 Syn-Sarantomo II 2,000 ha 126.8 126.8
C. New Polders 3/ 82 6324 19T78 Saremala 3,120 lha 63.4 134.4 L96o.2 Ouro-Nema 4,105 ha 8 1.6 Tiroguel 1,050 ha 66.6 66.6 Torokoro 525 ha 33.3 33-3 ______~~ ~ ~~~~~ - _ -
Total 23,085 ha. 336.0 534.8 458.3 134.4 1,463.5 90T 234 322 62% 16X 22%
1/ In prices of December1 9 7 7, including taxes.
2/ June I - May 31.
3/ See Annex 5, Table 2
4/ llnit price NF 63,4001iOa.
5/ IER, Annex 15, Table 5. - 78 - ANNEX7 Table 4 MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Project Cost - - Buildings (In FM Million)
2/ Foreign 19O Local 19/ Taxes 190 Project Year 2/ 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1978-82 Exchange Costs
a) Sheds for Farm Inputs -3
A. Mopti I Polders B. Other Existing Folders 17.6 17.6 C. New Polders 38.6 38.6
Subtotal 17.6 38.6 56.2
b) Sheds for ORM Equipm nt 4/
A. Mopti I Polders 51.2 51.2 B. Other Existing Polders 6.4 6.4 C. New Polders 25.6 25.6 Subtotal 51.2 32.0 83.2
c) ORM Meehan Workshops 5J 44.0 44.0
d) Paddy Storage-
A. Mopti I Polders 112.0 112.0 B. Other Existing Polders 40.0 40.0 C. New Polders 88.0 88.0 Subtotal 112.0 128.0 240.0
e) Offices,Houses -/
A. Mopti I Polders8/ 101.6 17.0 118.6 B. Other Existing Folders 9.9 9.9 C. New Polders 39.6 39.6 D. Bamako 33.4 33.4 B. 2 houses Techn. Asst. 44.0 44.0 F. Training Centers 9/ _ 54.0 54.0 Subtotal 145.6 153.9 299.5 TOTALBUILDINGS 326.4 396.5 722.9 253 354 116 35% 49% 16Z
1/ In prices of December1977 includingtaxes. 2/ June 1 - May 31. 2 3/ See Annex 5, Table 3 . Unit costs are PM 4.0 million for 75m 4/ See Annex 5, Table 3 . Unit Costs are PM 4.0 million for 52.5m2 . 2 5/ See Annex 5, Table 3 . Unit costs are FM 60,000/m. 2 6/ See Annex 5, Table 3 . Unit costs are PM 8.0 million for 150m or FM 53.333/zk2. 7/ See Annex 5, Table 3 . Unit costs are FM 9.9 million for a polder chief's house, FM 2.6m for an office. 8/ Includingone house for director of seed farm at FM 17.0 million. 9/ See Annex 5, Table 3. Unit costs are FM 60,000/m2, 10/ IER Annex 15, Table 3. MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT 1/ Project Cost
Engineering and Supervision (in FM Millions) 2/ Project Year 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1978-82. Foreign Local ______gxchange 3/ Cost 3/ Taxes
Cost Items
Project Studies 4 5 5 - - 14
Equipment 28 - 4 - - 32
Technical Assistance 25 50 33 11 - 119
Local Personnel 2 8 8 5 1 24
Operating Costs 6 16 16 10 2 50
Total 65 79 66 26 3 239 141 98
59 41
1/ In prices of December 1977; since engineering and supervision is carried out by a Government agency, costs have been calculated net of taxes only. 2/ June 1 - May 31. 3/ Communication from Rural Works Department, Bamako.
{D X in-4 rm-g~~~ r
Coat 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1978-82 Lbe Coat §/ as 5/
a) V tooIde
trootor 0 trnolar 2/ Cost 4 99 10 20 (96%) (38) (18) ft. 4.919 1~~~~~~~~9.999.8 149.7 144 5
A.toaoblbod 3/ _A.t.-bilo ~~~~3 3 0 0 Coot 1.85 5.6 5.6 3.7 1849 9(13) (254)
C. t 22.0 710.0) llOwo (6288 (13%) (25%)
2 2 Coat 450o90.0 C.t 45.0 90.0 ~~~~~86 ~ ~~(3%)(3 ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~(96%)(1
Subtntol 5.6 255.5 103.5 364.6 (10 25 33 (848) (7) (96) b) Fo M.htoba.
S-roshers 4/
M0. 2a 91 42 Coot 5.10 03.71 107.1 2a14.2
N%. 40 99 35 17 Cost 0.33 13.2 L5 11.66 J7.5 S.bt&ol 120.3 32.7 1U8.7 221-7 261 8 (3 (96%) (3%) (19) c) 08nMn iotsnoTo
2 Dpr eqtdppd tb doter .d lor (So 1) 43.2 86.4 86.4 2 Djo trobl 63 28.8 57.6 57.6 1 dter T-ok 10,000 1 246 26.5 24.5 1 Motor gflder 120 HP 47.5 47.5 47.5 1 vibr-tiqs toUir 5.7 5.7 5-7 (500-6600 kg) 2 NMobileDi. T_prt 1.5 3.0 3.0 W0osloe 21.6 21.6 Spre pat 105 27.1 27.1 3obtotal 273.4 273.4 169 36 68 (62%) (13%) (Ž7%) d) Ol W-rkelo: oitr_nt
2 259VA eretore 7.6 15.2 15.2 2 12KV0 G-toro 5.6 11.2 11.2 IQocelloss 1lqo1tt - Wra k pbobe 48.0 48.0 - oT..oko. a Sofora 36.0 60 lzre bopo
Obatota1 48.0 62.4 110.4 66 11 33 (60%) (10%) (30%)
Forol~ofor Ho.tee 1.0
t. Nkptl I Bolders 6.0 6.0 12.0 B. Otber Esttzg Poldere 1.7 1.0 . _ Ntad 2.0 2partre .0 1.0 S. 0.6 F. Tra5i leete 9:3 9055 cSrto. rdtire 0.50
A. Izt1 I b)so 0.5 0.5 B. Otbr Rsttrg Folders 0.5 0,5 C. _ Pedere 1.0 1.0 2.0 D. (2U sadater- 2.5 2.5 E. B_ko O.S 0.5
Office Ba3i-t 0.30
A. optt I Folders 0.1 1.8 3.9 B. Otle Mbt0rS FOlde 0.3 0.3 C. v.. 861d0. 0.6 3.6 1.2 D. (MN Bdqart rs10.3 / 10.03 2/ 20.3
2~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0.c2 ntr /17 It9. 3trT Oehtot.t 43.2 r~~~~~~~~~~~~~~rrr y:s~~~~3. roOD 222 (605) (WV5) (305) TorAL 279.0 91.2 457.8 139.8 122.3 1,090.1 850 83 3157 88 8% 14%
1/In prlit fr Dupbr 1977 ineludi tX.- Tp Mr 135. Adtio ol r aMprt1s clcltd as ofotion dEes td proMoetion (40S ootil 1982/83, 45%th aftwr). 7iPort eypcitF per trsotor - trilir 5t/daj Ce? 100 dga. Ottd-by Is 10%of opettig oqipat. Initial stoke. it 31 trtw-tor ler-. R%pl.oeM itwot n.m at -oote. Ty" klnot 16 f- th- bsd. of th- 4 ft. poodro cod thG head of Moeol. poldor: 3 e osa of the on tno frta.for elips Girard. AdUitionl q rint re fosotitos of aer d predec,oon (ss footots 2). TI-rsh-r cegett p. osit is 360 toot p c Th. initiol trok is 50 t Arrs.6105 tacd-tp for rsptra to... boo bas inclbdd. 5/Of knit -Gtots. hoqdalrnts ea f ot tlo of Iol-sot ot. (Sea -In- 8, T21. 3). The .o 7 at per d derito a-sfd to tsa fre 40 hafyoer to 60 ba/Wyer ao frnas bo ost sopserisad 8pprtore. Tbh taed-by io 07 SS fsor asadw a- repot inoidd I 1-* 6 Otctber 1976 pris-t or_od br 9%, Btd on 08 Feebdlity Stodf tet itb de.e r re ion of fwreit reql t.. B/ a , *e 16, Tlaia T. 21 IWaIo.a- 5 eNtea. nCsa fs- Wsoseotl betsea poSie, M, MY10.0su . Dt* yr for bmiig tilts of project prtieipasta in1 stt-op e-d tr r o0ote. ' bwe oriteriltera. e nt for dostrotio ed prftti.e. MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
PROJECT COST /1
Adult Literacy Campaign and Audio-Visual Program
(in MF Millions)
Foreign Local Project Year /2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1978-82 Exchange /6 Cost /6 Taxes /6
A. Adult Literacy Campaign /3
Personnel 1.6 3.9 5.1 5.7 9.6 25.9 Equipment 7.0 3.4 4.1 3.9 5.7 24.1 Oper. Cost 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 5.8 19.8 DNAFLA Support - 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.0 14.7 Subtotal 11.5 13.8 16.4 17.7 25.1 84.5
B. Audio-Visual Program
Equipment/4 10.0 4.7 4.7 - - 19.4 Operating Cost/5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 25.0 Subtotal 15.0 9.7 9.7 5.0 5.0 44.4
TOTAL 26.5 23.5 26.1 22.7 30.1 128.9 77 20 32
60% 152 25%
/1 In prices of December 1977. /2 June 1 - May 31. /3 See Annex 5, Appendix 1, Table 1. /4 One Landrover, one 4 KVA generator, four small generators, photographic and reproduction material, tape recorders, screens. /5 Only for the central unit at ORM; operating costs in the field are included in extension service costs. /6 See IER, Annex 15, Table 24. -82- ADJRr 7 MALI Tabl 8 MOPT) II RICE PROJECT
PROJECT COST V
ORM Staff and Technical Assistance
(FM Million) Foreign Loael Taxes Staff Unit 1978 IS79 1980 198l 1982 Total Exchange Cost Cost 1978-1982 1977 _ _FM !0OO __ __
A. OEM Staff
Existing Staff ORM No. 318 Cost (tM miltion) ?/ 155.0
Additional Staff / 5 Polder Chiefs No. 10 3 5 Cost 732 2.2 3.7 3.7 9 9 Assistant Polder Chief No. 1 4 5 7 Cost 672 2.7 3.4 4.7 6.1 6.1 2 7 11 Moniteurs No. 28 Cost 479 1.0 3.4 5.3 28 44 Encadreurs No. 116 7 Coat 220 1.5 6.2 9.7 3 5 5 Ass. Accountants No. 10 Cost 224 0.7 1.1 1.1 3 5 5 Tally-men No. 10 Cost 100 0.3 0.5 0.5 5 25 59 79 Sub-total No. 170 4 Cost 2.7 3.4 10.4 20.8 26.3 27 34 Tractor Drivers No. 33 1 6 14 Cost 85 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 2.9 4 4 4 Workshop Mechanics No. 8 4 Cost 199 0,8 0,8 0.8 0.8 43 90 117 Total Add. Staff No. 5 1S 12.4 24.1 30.1 (cumulative) Cost 2.8 4.7
No. 294 304 332 279 406 Total ORM Staff 848.8 Cost 157.8 159.7 167.4 178.9 185.0
Participationof Project in ORM 255 47.3 47.9 50.2 53.7 55.5 254.6 Staff Cost (30%) 4/ 100%
Unit Cost FMMillion
B. Techn. Assistance 4 3 2 Staff 2 4 4 34.27 137.1 137.1 137.1 102.8 68.5 582.6 8.9 8.9 8.9 44.5 Visiting Consultants 8.9 8.9
Documentation and 4.0 4.0 4.0 20.0 Miscellaneous 4.0 4.0 150.0 115.7 81.4 647.1 647 Total 150.0 150.0
1008
1/ In prices of Dec. 1977. 2/ Budget 1977. will remain constant. Each polder will have has been assumed that all staff except the categories listed here 3/ It polders over 1,000 ha an assistant polder chief as wil. a polder chief, an assistant accountant and a tally-man, and Encadreurs, Part of the field staff of the new poldera There will he one Encadreur for 240 ha, and one Moniteur for 4 Additional tractor which is in excess of the ratios given in this footnote. can be taken fron existing field staff increase in tractor numbers which in turn is a function driver requirementshave been calculated as a function of the of the increase in marketed production. area at full th-e ratio: SI(W) - SA(WO) where SA(W) is the own 4/ The participation of the project has been based on development withouit the project (26,759 ha). development with the project (38,303 ha), and SA(WO) the sown areaSiN91ll See Amex 9, Table 4. _ 83 -
MAlI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
project Cost 1/
ORM Operating Costs (FM Million)
Foreign Local 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1978-82 Exchange Cost Taxes
ORM Operating Costs Budget 1977 210.7
Less cost items that are a function of marketed production 2/ 72.5
Less cost items that are a function of developed area 3/ 37.0
Less debt service 46.0
Residual Operating 4/ Costs of ORM 55.2 58.0 60.9 63.9 67.1 70.5 320.4 60% 8/ 20% 81 20% 8/ Plus operating cost of ORM vehicles and farm equipment _/ 76.8 87.1 104.9 129.1 133.0 530.9 53% 27% 20% Plus cost of civil works maintenance v/ 62.0 65.9 72.2 77.6 87.9 365.6 28% 61X 11%
Annual ORM Operating Cost 196,8 213.9 241.0 273.8 291.4 1,216.9 576 430 210 Participation of the Project in ORM Operating Costs 7/ 59.0 64 2 72.3 82.1 87.4 365 0 173 129 63 (48) (35) (17) Applted research uronrain 20,8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 104.0 50 36 18 ___ (48~~~~~~~~A)3) 7 Participationof Project in Op. Cost incl. Applied Research Progra 79.8 85.0 93.1 102.9 108.2 469.0 223 165 81 (48) (35) (17)
1/ In prices of December 1977 including taxes 2/ Costs of fuel, maintenance, insurance and taxes for vehicles and farm equipment. and "frais de campegne". 3/ rncludes also expenditure for "carres de rendement" since this item is also related to area rather then production. 4/ Increase of 5% p.a. in real terms assumed until 1982, thereafter constant 5/ The 1977 level of FM 7,500 per ton of marketed productionreflects the underutilizationof equipment and is orojected to decrease by FM 500/t annually until it becomes FM 5,000/t in 1982/83 6/ At a rate of FM 3,200/ha/year, starting * years after conQletion of polder Plua FM 150/ha for "carres de rende ents". 7/ 30%. fta *las 8, footote 4s 8/ Mis8L a'e Oettte. - 84 - ANNEX 7 Table 10
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Project Cost /1
On-Farm Investment
(I'MMillion)
Unit Cost Total Foreign Local M_ 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1978-82 Exchange Cost Taxes A. At Cost Prices
Plow (Type 32) NO. 2;6 771 5L5 715 479 2,746 N nlllon 76,290 21.1 58,8 30.5 54.5 36.5 209.4 172 37 -
Cultivators No. '.5 63 128 258 375 879 MF million 90,765 5.0 5.7 11.6 23.4 34.0 79.7 48 32 -
Harrows No. - - 97 34 68 199 M1 million 51,915 - - 5.0 1.8 3.5 10.3 6 4 -
Carts No. - 69 135 180 114 498 MF million 77,210 - 5.3 10.4 13.9 8.8 38.4 23 15 -
Fertilizer (urea) t 73 144 310 508 851 1,887 MF million 151,390/2 11.1 21.8 47.0 76.9 128.9 285.7 271 15 -
Oxen (Pair) No. 276 771 505 715 479 2,746 - - MF million 130,140 35.9 100.3 65.7 93.1 62.3 357.3 - 357 - Total A MF million 73.1 191.9 178.2 263.6 274,0 980.8 (Rounded) (73) (192) (178)- (264) (274) (981) 523 461 - 53% 47% 0%
B. At Subsidized SCAER Selling Prices Subsidy Plows (Type B2) No. 27S 771 505 715 479 2,746 MF million 67,130 18.5 51.8 33.9 48.0 32.2 184.4 25
Cultivators No. 55 63 128 258 * 375 879 MF million 83,000 L.6 5.2 10.6 21.4 31.1 72.9 7
Harrows No. - - 97 34 68 199 MF million 45,700 - - 4.4 1.6 3.1 9.1 1
Carts No. - 69 135 180 114 498 MY million 70,980 - 4.9 9.6 12.8 8.1 35.4 3
Fertilizer (urea) f 72 138 298 485 810 1,803 MF million 97,000 7.0 13.4 28.9 47.0 78.6 174.9 111
Oxen (Pair) No. 276 771 505 715 479 2,746 MF million 130,140 35.9 100.3 65.7 93.1 62.3 357.3
Total B MF million 66.0 175.6 153.1 223.9 215.4 834.0 (Rounded) (66) (176) (153) (224) (215) (834) 147
/ In prices of December1977. /2 Fertilizer prices for 1978-1982 are based on World Banikprojections (Report No. 814/76, Annex 4, page 17). MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Project Cost l/
Assistance To Study Bureau of Rural Works Department
(FM Million) Foreign Local Project Year 2/ 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1978-82 Exclange Costs Taxes 7/ a) Building 3/ 39 _ - - - 39 14 19 6 b) Equipment and Documents 4/ 19 34 15 - - 68 41 7 20 c) Study Travel 5/ 5 5 5 5 5 25 25 - - d) Studies 6/ 90 90 90 90 - 360 230 115 15
Total 153. 129 110 95 5 492 310 141 41
63% 29% 8% O I.
1/ In prices of December1977. 2/ June 1 - May 31. 3/ Second floor on Study Bureau (200 m2) 4/ Survey and reproduction equipment, maps etc. 5/ For short-term visits to projects, construction sites and institutions in other countries. 6/ For irrigation projects. Part of these studies are to be subcontracted, for economic studies, to IER. 7/ See IER, Annex 15, Tables 4 and 27: and Annex 16, Table 7.
m1 D - ANNEX7 : 86 - Table 12
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Project Cost
Price Conitingency Factors 1/
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 a) Equipment, vehicles, adult literacy and audio-visual; on-farm investment; assistance to Rural Works Dept., engineering and supervision 1.075 1.156 1.236 1.323 1.416 b) Civil works, buildings, deep ploughing, technical assistance, 1.090 1.188 1.283 1.386 1.497 operating expenses c) Local Staff 2/ 1.045 1.092 1.135 1.180 1.227
1/ Revised Guidelines on Expected Price Increases (Price contingencies), CPS memo (W.C. Baum). of Jan. 31, 1977. Annual rates of increase are as follows (in %): a) b) c) 1978 7.5 9.0 4.5 1979 7.5 9.0 4.5 1980 7.0 8.0 4.0 1981 7.0 8.0 4.0 1982 7.0 8.0 4.0
2/ Half the rate projected for operat:Lng expenses since Mali is expected to continue its policy of minimal increases in Government salaries in view of the difficult budgetary situation. _ 87 - ANNEX 8 MALI Table 1
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Financing Plan
Total Cost _11 MF US$ IDA FAC ADF Govt. Farmers Million Million
Civil Works
IDA and FAC 2,695 5.50 4.95 0.55 - - - ADF 2,205 4.50 - - 4.50 - -
Deep Ploughin8
IDA and FAC 735 1.50 1.35 0.15 - - - ADF 490 1.00 - - 1.00 - -
Buildings 686 1.40 1.26 0.14 - - - Engineering+ Supervision 245 0.50 0.50 - - - - Vehicles and Equipment 1,078 2.20 1.98 0.22 - - - Adult Lit+ Audiovisual 122 0.25 - 0.25 - - - Applied Agrc. Research 98 0.20 - 0.20 - - - Increm. Staff + Oper. Costs 686 1.40 0.70 - - 0.70 - Technical Assistance 686 1.40 1.26 0.14 - - -
On-Farm Investment
Farmers 950 1.94 - - - - 1.94 Govt. Input Subsidies 212 0.43 - _ _ 0.43 - Agricultural Credit 220 0.45 0.45 - _ _ _
Subtotal Mopti II Rice 11,108 22.67 - - - - -
Assistance RWD 490 1.00 0.90 0.10 - - -
Total 11,598 23.67 13.35 1.75 5.50 1.13 1.94
Unallocated 1,275 2.60 1.65 0.25 0.50 0.20 -
Total Project Cost net of Taxes 12,873 26.27 15.00 2.00 6.00 2.J 1.33 1.94
% 57 8 23 5 7
Taxes 2,420 4.94 - - - 4.94 -
Total Project Cost 15,293 31.21 15.00 2.00 6.00 6.27 1.94 including Taxes
% 48 6 19 20 6
1/ Total cost net of taxes.Exceptfor ofamivsen,profterceotneces has been listed under unallocated. US$ 6.00 million = Units of Account 5.45 millions. N.B- Percentage figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding. 88 - ANNEX 8 Table 2
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Estimated Schedule of Disbursements
Cumulative IDA Fiscal Year Disbursements and Semester (US$'000)
FY79
1st Semester 400 2nd Semester 1,200
FY80
1st Semester 2,600 2nd Semester 4,400
FY81
1st Semester 6,500 2nd Semester 8,700
FY82
1st Semester 10,800 2nd Semester 12,700
FY83
1st Semester 14,000 2nd Semester 14,500
FY84
1st Semester 15,000 - 89- ANNEX 9 Page I
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Cultivated Areas, Yields, Production
1. The assumptionsunderlying the projectionswith and without the project (Tables 1 and 2) are explained below with respect to cultivated areas and yields.
CultivableArea
2. Four new polders (Ouro-Nema,Saremala, Tiroguel and Torokoro)would be developed. Without the project, these four areas would be under tradi- tional rice-growingwith uncontrolledflooding (40% of the area cultivable with the project).
3. The investmentsscheduled for the Mopti I polders (See Annex 5, Table 1 and 3) will allow full developmentof the 26,200 ha that have been retained as cultivablewith a 95% flooding probability. Without these invest- ments, the sown area in the Mopti I polders would only reach about 19,300 has as a consequenceof infestationof certain polders with wild rice, the lack of deep ploughing in some areas and the deficient flooding and drainage conditions in parts of some polders.
4. As a consequenceof the deep ploughing and the provision of sheds and stores in the existing polders of Bougoula and Syn-SarantomoII, these polders will be fully developed under the project. Without these invest- ments, Bougoula and Syn-SarantomoII would show lower yields.
5. Areas sown would be 85% of the attributed area in the first year of cultivation and gradually rise to 98% of attributed area. Total cultivated area would ultimately be 38,300 ha with the project and 26,759 ha without the project, including the areas remainingunder traditional cultivation.
Yields
6. Yields in traditionalrice-growing with uncontrolledflooding are about 700 kg of paddy per ha. Inside the polders, i.e. under conditions of controlled inundation,yields of 1,100 kg/ha can be obtained with traditional cultivationmethods (characterizedmainly use of glaberrima varieties, super- ficial ploughing, no harrowing, broadcast sowing and little, if any, weeding). Yields rise to 1,400 kg/ha under regular flooding conditionswhen sativa rice varieties are used and farmers observe some elementary instructionssuch as sowing at the optimum time and better land preparation through harrowing or a repeat ploughing after the end-of-seasonploughing. The introductionof line- sowing and thorough weeding, preferably by ox-drawn cultivationbut also by ANNEX9 -90- ~~~Page2 hand, will raise yields to 1,900 kg/ha according to IRAT research carried out at the Ibetemi research station. Finally, applicationof 100 kg/ha of urea allows average yields of about 2,500 kg/ha, again according to IRAT findings at Ibetemi. Fertilizeruse will be recommendedonly to farmers who have assimilatedthe preceding steps, in particular line-sowingand thorough weeding.
7. The different stages may be summarized as follows:
- Stage 0 (traditionalvarieties; uncontrolledflooding): 700 kg/ha
- Stage I (traditionalvarieties; controlled flooding): 1,100 kg/ha
- Stage 2 (Sativavarieties; improved land preparation): 1,400 kg/ha
- Stage 3 (Stage 2 plus line-sowing,weeding): 1,900 kg/ha
- Stage 4 (Stage 3 plus fertilizer use): 2,500 kg/ha
For input coefficientsof these different stages see Annex 11.
8. Table 3 shows the anticipatedprogress of cultivationtechniques over the project period. The shares of the area at Stage 2 will first increase and then graduallydecrease as more farmers adopt Stage 3. Likewise the area at Stage 3 will first increase and temporarilydecrease as more farmers make the transition to Stage 4. Experiencewith the Mopti I project has shown that most farmers entering the project immediatelychange to Sativa varieties and thereby are half way between Stage 1 and 2; those who observe recommendedland preparationpractices have reached Stage 2. Stage I has thereforebeen omitted in Table 3. On the other hand, it is expected that a sizeable proportion of farmers (25%) will not progress beyond Stage 2.
9. Yields with the project are the average of yields associatedwith the different stages of cultivationtechniques (para 7) weighted with the shares shown in Table 3.
10. Without the project, yields will be those of Stage 0 for the areas of the planned new polders. In the polders developedunder the Mopti I proj- ect as well as in the Bougoula and Syn-SarantomoII polders, yields would continue to rise due to the efforts of ORM extensionservices, but to vary- ing degrees according to hydrologicalconditions in individualpolders. While some would reach the same level of productivityas with the project, others would level off at 1,600-1,700kg/ha while Ibetemi,where flooding conditionsare very precarious,would stagnate at 1,200 kg/ha. The overall average for the Mopti I polders would still be 1,780 kg/ha if the project were not carried out (Table 2). MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Development of Area (ha), Yield (t/ha) and Production (t) - With Prolect
Project Year 1/ 0 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) Year 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
A. Mopti I (Credit 277-MLI)
Attributed Area 21.3 21.5 21.7 22.6 24.6 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 Sown Area 2/ 18.2 18.3 18.5 20.8 23.4 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 Yield 3/ 1.39 1.50 1.56 1.61 1.68 1.80 1.86 1.91 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Production 25.4 27.5 28.8 33.5 39.3 46.2 47.8 49.0 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.4
B. Other existing Polders /
Attributed Area 2.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Sown Area 1.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Yield 1.48 1.56 1.61 1.68 1.80 1.86 1.91 2.00 2.00 Production 2.5 5.7 6.1 6.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 8.0 8.0
C. New Polders
1. Saremala and Torokoro
Attributed Area 1.5 2.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 Sown Area 1.3 2.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Yield 1.48 1.56 1.61 1.68 1.80 1.86 1.91 2.00 2.00 Production 1.9 3.7 5.4 5.8 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.1 6/ 2. ouro.Nema and Tiroguel
Attributed Area 2.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 Sown Area 2.0 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Yield 1.48 1.56 1.61 1.68 1.80 1.86 1.91 2.00 Production 3.0 7.2 7.6 8.2 9.1 9.4 9.6 10,1
TOTAL PROJECT (A+B+C)
Attributed Area 21.7 22.6 28.1 35.3 39.2 39.1 39.2 39.1 - 39.1 39.1 39.1 Sown Area 18.5 20.8 26.4 33.8 37.5 37.8 38.2 38.3 38.3 38.3 36.3 Production 28.8 33.5 43.7 58.6 66.5 69.0 73.2 74.5 75.2 76.1 76.6 Average Yield 1.56 1.61 1.66 1.73 1.77 1.83 1.92 1.95 1.96 1.99 2.00
it Agricultural year 1976177. 2/ Sown area in percent of attributed area is assumed to develop as follows: Year 0-85%; Year I - 852 Year 2 - 92%; Year 3 - 95%; Year 4 and later - 98%. Polders listed under B and C follow the same sequence, starting with the percentage of Year 0. J/ Per hectare of sown area. j/ Bou-oula (2,085 ha) and Syn-Sarantomo II (2,000 ha). 5/ 3;M21iha (S) and 525 ha (T) respectively. 6I 4,105 ha (O-N) and 1,050 ha (T) respectively. - ' MALI
MDPTI II RICE PROJECT
Dgvelopmentof Area (hectares).Yield (t/ha),and Production(tons) - without Project
1976 j/ 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
Mopti I Polders
Sown Area 2/ 18.2 18,3 18 5 18 9 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.3 19 3 19.3 19.3 19.3 Yield 2/ ' 1.39 1.50 1.56 1.58 1.66 1.72 1.76 1.76 1.77 1.77 1.78 1.78 1.78 Production 2/ 25.4 27.5 28.8 30.0 31.7 33.2 33.9 34.0 34.1 34 2 34 3 34 3 34 3
Other Existinz Polders
Sown Area 2/ 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 3 9 3.9 3 9 3 9 Yield 2/ 37 1.10 1.15 1.20 1 25 1.30 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.50 Production 2/ 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.5 5 7 5.9 5.9
New Polders
Sown Area 4/ 2.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Yield 5/ 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 Production 1.4 6/ 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Total
Sown Area 18.2 18.3 18.5 20.9 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 Yield 1.39 1.50 1.56 1.49 1.45 1.51 1.54 1.55 1.56 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.60 Production 25.4 27.5 28.8 31.4 38.0 39.7 40.9 41.4 41.7 42.2 42.5 42.7 42.7
1/ Agricultural Year 1976/77. 2/ Sown areas and yields have been projected in detail for individual polders. Results have been aggregated and rounded. 3/ Yield development adjusted downwards because of lack of deep ploughing. 4/ 407 of area cultivable after development. 5/ Yield in traditional cultivation outside the voldersa. 6/ Traditional production foregone because of civil works in Ouronema and Tiroguel poldersa.
N.B. Figures may not add up to totals due to rounding. MALI EIPTI II RICE PROJICT
Adoption Ratea of Cultivation T eh1±i4uea
(with the project)
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Stage 2 (1400 kx/a)
%of area 72 67 59 43 42 36 25 25 area (ha) 12,656 13,937 15,561 14,504 15,790 13,595 9,156 9,193
Stage 3 (1900kg/ha)
% of area 24 27 28 39 29 32 37.5 37.5 area (ha) 4,218 5,616 7,385 13,154 10,853 12,084 14,496 14,555
Stage 4 (2500 kg/ha)
% of area 4 6 13 18 29 32 37.5 37.5 area (ha) 703 1,248 3,429 6,071 10,853 12,084 14,496 14,555
Total Area (ha) 12,577 20,801 26,375 33,729 37,426 37,763 38,148 38,303 Average yield (t/ha) 1.56 1.61 1.68 1.80 1.86 1.91 2.00 2.00 MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Cultivated Areas and Paddy Production with and without the Project
1978 1' 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
Cultivated Area (1,000 ha)
With the project 18.5 20.8 26.4 33.7 37.4 37.8 38.1 38.3 38.3 38.3 38.3 Without the project 18.5 20.8 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 Incremental area 0 0 0.3 7.3 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 in % of area with the project 0 0 1.1 21.7 28.9 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Paddy Production (1,000 t)
With the project 28.8 33.5 43.7 58.6 66.4 69.0 73.2 74.5 75.2 76.1 76.6 Without the project 28.8 31.4 38.0 39.7 40.9 41.4 41.7 42.2 42.5 42.7 42.7 Incremental production 0 2.1 5.7 18.9 25.5 27.6 31.5 32.3 32.7 33.4 33.9 1 in % of production with the project 0 6.3 13.0 32.2 38.4 40.0 43.0 43.3 43.5 43.9 44.2
1/ Agricultural year 1978/79
g x (D f ANNEX 10 Page 1
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Market Prospects for Malian Rice
Domestic Demand
1. Government, in its current Five Year Plan, anticipates a very steep increase in domestic rice consumption from the present level of 20 kg per capita to 48 kg in 1983 and 79 kg in 1990. Such a per capita increase (about 8% annually) is not compatible with realistic estimates of future real growth and with empirical findings on income elasticity of demand. Assuming a 2% annual increase in real income per head and an income elasticity of demand of 1.0 per capita consumption would reach only 25 kg in 1985/86. This increase would be in line with West African experiences over the last decade: it would still be considerably higher than current FAO estimates. Total paddy require- ments including seed and losses would rise by 125,000 tons over the decade 1975/76 - 1985/86 (Table 1).
2. Incremental production from ongoing projects (without the proposed project) has been projected in Table 2. The projection includes the Office du Niger (where production is assumed to remain stagnant in the absence of further investment), the Operation Riz Segou (including a 5,000 ha extension approved by EDF), the first Mopti Rice Project (according to the "without the project" projection in this report, Annex 9, Table 2), Operation Riz Sikasso according to projections in the Mali-Sud Appraisal Report (No. 1171-MLI, Table 7.8), some minor schemes and traditional production as indicated in the footnotes of Annex 10, Table 2.
3. Comparison of demand and supply projections with and without the project (Table 3) show that without the project Mali would remain self-suf- ficient, in years of normal rainfall, until about 1982 and produce even small surpluses. With the project, this surplus situation would extend until about 1985. In assessing the significance of this surplus, several factors must be taken into account, notably
- the weak statistical basis on which projections are based (population growth rate, income elasticity of demand, total production in base year);
- the considerable year to year fluctuations in output attribu- table to hazardous weather conditions (Annex 1, Table 1); and
- uncertainties surrounding the increase in production from on-going projects. - 96 - ANNEX 10 Page 2
While deviationsfrom the projectecLtrend may be upwards as well as down- wards, shortfallsare regarded as more serious by Governmentin view of the multiple disruptionsthey cause in the national economy. In years when a rice surplus actually materializes,as in 1976/77, it has to be exported.
Export Prospects
4. Mali would be most competitive in neighboring Sahelian countries because prices of imports from overseas are high (due to transport costs from the coast). However, consumptionand import requirementsof these countries are low. Mali occasionallysells minor quantitiesto Upper Volta or Niger and may continue to do so.
5. The main regional market is Senegal which has a deficit of not less than 150,000 tons annually. However, Senegal consumes mainly brokens which can be obtained on the world market at half price of standard quality (5% brokens) and still for 30% less than the price Malian rice (riz marchand, 25-35% brokens) would fetch on the world market. Since Senegaleseconsumers are not prepared to pay a premium for higher quality rice, Mali would have to sell its surplus at the price of brokens - which would leave a net return well below the producer price (Table 4a).
6. Some coastal countrieshave, over the last few years, made vast strides towards self-sufficiencybut some of them, in particular the Ivory Coast, are projected to remain structuraldeficit countries. While at present world market prices Mali is not competitive in this market, the rising trend of world market prices (in real terms) should permit Mali to export occasional surplusesat a profit by the time the incrementalcapacity of the project comes on stream (Table 4a). MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Estimate of Domestic Paddy Requirements in Mali, 1970/71 - 1985/86
Year 1/ 1970/i 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 _984/85 1985/86
Population 2/ (1000) 5,260 5,845 6,001 6,163 6,329 6,500 6,676 6,856 7,041 7,231 7,426 7,627 7,833
Per Capita Consumption (kg) 3/ 20.3 4/ 2003 / 20.3 5/ 20.71 21.12 21.54 21.98 22.42 22.87 23-33 23.80 24.28 24.77
Total Consumption of Rice (1OOOt) 106.8 118.6 121.8 127.6 133.7 140.0 146.7 153.7 161.0 168.7 176.7 185.2 194.0
Paddy Equivalent 6/ 164.3 182.4 187.3 196.3 205.7 215.4 225.7 236.5 247.7 259.4 271.8 284.9 298.4 25.0 Seed Requirements 7/ 20.0 21.0 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Total Paddy Required (lOOOt) 359 (incl. 10% losses) 8/ 205 226 234 244 255 267 279 291 303 316 330 344
1/ The population figure aseociated with agricultural year 1970/71 is 1971 since the crop will be consumed in 1971. 2/ Population figures 1971-78 were taken from Malian sources (Five Year Plan). For the following years, Malian projections are not consistent, with the assumed population growth rate of 2.7% p.a. The population projections shown in the FYP are much too low. Here, a growth rate of 2.7% p.a. has been used throughout. This is an optimistic assumption since Mali has traditionally a migration loss 2 Based on an assmed per capita income increase of 2% p.a. (GDP growth 4.75% p.a. in real terms) and an income elasticity of demand for rice of 1.0. Increase in per capita rice consump- tion is, of course, not only related to increases in per capita income but also to substitution elasticity with respect to other staples, mainly millet and, to a lesser extent, wheat. The price relationahip between these staples has not changed significantly, however, over the last few years and is not expected to do so in future, at least not in a sense favourable to increased rice consumption. Actual 1971 as calculated by WARDAyearbook 1975, p. 185. Also equal to average of 1970-72 and close to 15 year average 1960-1974. / It has been aseumed that per capita consumption remained constant although retail prices of rice increased by 40% (RM40) or 55% (BB) in 1974. Beaed on milling ratio of 65% used by official Malian sources. The milling ratio for paddy milled in rice mills is mostly in the range of 62-64% but the yield is higher with traditional processing methods (usually about 70%). Since only about a third of total production passes through the mills, the average of 65% is on the low side. Z/ Based on a rate of 100 kg per ha. For estimated development of areas under rice see Table 2. Incremental seed requirements have only been taken into account for those projects for which future increases in production have been calculated in Table 2. The rate of 100 kg per ha is an overestimate since in traditional production not more than 60-80 kg/ha are used while, on the other side of the range, farmers practising line-sowing also need only 80 kg/ha. 8/ The rate of 10% losses is in accordance with WARDAassumptions. Totals have been rounded to the nearest 1000.
'FI MALI MOFTI II RIC pROJsCr
Zotinate of Do.cetic Production of Paddy 1968/69 - 1985/86 (without the Project)
1968/62 169/70 1970/71 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 199/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Area (ha 1000)
Offic. du Wiger 29.9 6 32.8 39.8 40.8 39.9 39.6 40.0 40.o 40D 40.o 40. iO.D 40.0 40.0 40D Op6ration Ri 86 gou - 7.9 8.8 28.7 34.3 33.8 34.3 35.0 36.5 38.0 38.5 39.0 39.2 39.2 39.2 Op6ration Ris Nopti I 3.9 it 4.8 4.8 13.9 16.1 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.9 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.2 OpAration Ris Sil o - - 1.4 (3.6) 4.1 5.0 6.0 7.4 9.1 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 i].6 0ther project. - / - (1.0) (1.5) (2.0) (2.5) (3.0) (3.5) (4.0) (4.5) (5.0) (5.5) ( 6.0) (6.5) Traditional j 120 126 119 8$ 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114
yield (t/ha)
Office du Niger 1.54 1.61 1.33 2.11 2.25 2.38 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 Op6ration Rix SRhou - 1.32 1.49 1.41 1.57 3iA4 1.60 1.70 1.75 1.80 1.85 1.85 1 85 1.85 1 85 Op&rstion Ris Nopti (1.15) 1.15 1.15 1.40 1.15 1.39 1.50 1.56 1.59 1.57 1.62 1.66 1.68 1.69 1.71 Op6ration Pis 8ikaeao - - (1 10) (1.15) 1.15 1.16 1.20 1.23 1.26 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 Other Projects 1/ - - - (1 50) (1.50) (1.50) (1.50) (1.50) (1.50) (1.50) (1.30) (1.50) (1.50) (1.50) (1.50) Traditional 2/ 0.67 0.74 0.81 0.73 0.79 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75
Production (1000)
efli^ d,. O4i. 46.1 ) .6 52.9 86.0 90.0 94.4 96.0 96.0 96.0 96.0 96.0 96.0 96.0 96.0 96.0 Op6hation Rim SfAon v 10.4 13.1 40.2 54.0 48.6 54.9 59.5 63.9 68.4 71.2 72.1 72.5 7Z.5 72.5 Op4ration Ris Nopti (4.9) 5.5 5.5 19.4 18.4 25.4 27.5 28.8 30.0 35.5 37.2 38.4 38.9 39.2 39.7 Op6ration Rix Si e - - (1.5) (4.1) 4.7 5.8 7.2 9.1 11.5 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 Other projects I/ - - - 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.5 5.3 6.0 6.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7 5 Traditional 84.4 88.8 96.4 63.8 89.6 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.5 Total 135.7 157.5 2/ 169.4 2/ 215.0 259.0 6/ 262,7 274.9 283.4 292.2 306.7 311.9 314.8 315.7 316.0 316.5
(Rounded) 136 158 169 215 259 263 275 283 292 307 312 315 316 316 317
Notional entry for minl uch Projects in progoes as Op6ration Ri-Sorgho in the Gao rea, the OpArtion Petits Perinetrea in the KeYes ara, bottoand development in afmUb4 bnibd baarea., tevelopment in the Naute V 11&. etc. -/ Aree under traditional rice cultivation were atieated at about 130,000 ha before the launching of Op4rations in 1969. It has bean seaumed that until 1974/75 this are develgped in line with rural population growth but that aln aream developed by projects are daductible fro. this ara. In 1975/76, traditional farmers are aecusedt to he,# reacted to the 60% increnese in producer price. by a 30% ineree in are (implying a supply response eleaticity of 0.5 which i low). The additionl supply induced by the price increrae is assumed to be only 20,000 ona of paddy. An from 1975.76, epootan.oum growth in traditional rice cultivtion hba bee. ceased to be 1% p.a. only. 3/Icluding Bougoula and Syn-Serantono II as fin 1980. For 1968/69 - 1975/76 yields in the traditional sector hee been uad aa the balaneing parameter in order to erriee at the official overall production figures. Th. fact that thene yields are in the renge between 0.7 and 0.8 t/ba genraly eamumed for traditional rice growing proven that the d-elopment of production figures from ths late 'aimties up to 1975/76 can be explined satiefactorily by reference te individual projects' development. 2 I6NDA Tearbook 1975, p. 185. 2/Produetion data conveyed to Econoaic Mieion in February 1976 by the Direction Nationals du Plan.
( ) . estimate 6 Sources; VRDA, Office du Niger Report of June 1974; data from OpAration Rix S gou and Op6ration Ri. Kopti; Productivity Progra from Doesnde de Financesent .u FED; Staff Project Report Itali ud for Op4ratiOn Rim Sikmen; Research nd Development: Effete 6conomiqu* du Barrage de blingub, for ares nd production -hora casier" until 1974; also Enquite Agricole 1973/74; Anne. 1 of Economic Meeorandus on NMli of July, 1976 (1134-MLI). MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Estimate of Prospective Demand and Supply Relations on Mali Rice Market, 1975/76-1987/88 (in lOOOt of paddy)
1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87
Paddy Requirements 1/ 23'+ 244 255 26? 279 291 303 316 330 344 359 375
Paddy Production 2/ 259 263 275 283 292 307 312 315 316 316 317 317
Surplus (+) or Deficit (-) + 25 + 19 + 20 + 16 + 13 + 16 + 9 - 1 - 14 - 28 - 42 - 58
Incremental Production from the Project - _ - - 2 6 19 25 28 31 32 33.
Net Surplus (+) or Deficit (-) with the Project + 25 + 19 + 20 + 16 + 15 + 22 + 28 + 24 + 14 + 3 - 10 - 25 In 7.of Dom. Production 10 7 7 6 5 7 9 8 4 1 - 3 - 8 / See Table 1. ' 2/ See Table 2.
UPeromam f1pw ban lmaeulated before roundiag lnd my not correspond to pereentag of rounded figures.
C, Economic Price of Paddy in Constant 1977 Price,
I. Export Parity Price
A. Export to Ivory Coast B. Export to Overeas Markets C. t to Seneg (Reference vality: Thai 25-35% brokens) (Reference Quality Thai 25-35% broken6) CIiflrenceQCia1ity A 1 White brokene) 1272 1978 1272 1980 etc. 1277 1978 1979 1980 etc. 127a 1978 1979 198 etc. Fob price Abidjan in constant 1977 S/t 3/ 189 214 241 273 189 214 241 273 in constant 197? FM/t 92,610 104,860 118,090 133,770 92,610 104,860 118,090 133,770 Cif price Abidjan in constant 1977 FM/t 7/ 107,310 119,56o 132,790 148,470 Cif price Dakar in constant 1977 _/ S/t 192 213 237 264 in constant 1977 FH/t 94,080 104,370 116,130 129,360 Port Handling/Stevedoring (FMti) 3,740 3,740 3,740 3,740 Transport Road Mopti-Abidjan (FMt) 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,ioo 18,100 Transport Rail Bamako-Dakar (FM/t) 18,220 18,220 18,220 18,220 Transshipment Road/Rail (FH/t) 3,000 3,000 3/k) 3,00 Transport Road Mopti-Bamako (FM/t) 16,640 16,640 16,640 16,640 Loading at Mopti (FM4/t) i,OOo 1,OuO 1 000 I 000 1 000 10,o0o 1ooo 1,000 1,000 1 '0000 Milling Costs (Ft/t) 14,710 14,710 14,710 14,710 14,710 14,710 14,7100 14,710 14710 14710 14:710 1- 710 Paddy and Rice bags 9 10 (FM/iut) 8ino 9W Q31,lP31 -;I Q,1 q:,r QQQ?,77A ,31 Price ex factory (FM/t) 66,190 78,440 91,670 107,350 45,470 57,720 70,950 86,630 30,200 40,490 52,250 65 480 Paddy Equivalent (FM/t) i/ 4l,o40 48,630 56,835 66,555 28,190 35,785 43,990 53,710 18,725 25,105 32,395 40,600 Transport to Hill (FM/t) 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 Costa .3,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 Collection (FH/t) 3,445 3,445 3,445 3,445 3,445 3,445 3,445 3,445 3,445 3,445 Lossea (FHM/t) 3,445 3,445 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 Economic Price of Paddy, Farm Gate (FM/t) 29,425 37,015 45,220 54,940 16,575 24,170 32,375 42,095 7,U0 13,490 20,780 28,98 Rounded (FM/kg) 29 37 45 55 17 2 32 42 7 13 21 29
3/ Derived from World Bank Forecasts; May 1977, 25-35% brokens. $530 freight/insurance = MF 14,700/t. 3] 60% of price of Thai, 5% brokens, plus $30 freight/insurance. i/ 62% milling ratio. Economic Price of Paddy in Constant 1977 Prices II Import Subatitution Price
A. Consumption in Bamako B. Consumption in 5th and 6th Region T-eference Price: Imports through Dakar) (Reference Price: Imports through Abidjan)
1977 1978 1979 1980 etc. 17 1978 1979 1980 etc.
Thai 25-35X brokens fob
- in constant 1977 $ per t 189 214 241 273 189 214 241 273 Sea freight insurance in 1977 S/t 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Total cost cif Abidjan or Dakar 219 244 271 303 219 244 271 303 In conatant 1977 FM/t 2/ 107,310 119,560 132,790 148,470 107,310 119,560 132,790 148,470 + Port landling/Stevedoring(F%/t) 3,740 3,740 3,740 3,740 3,740 3,740 3,740 3,740 + Tranahipeent to Rail (FN/t) 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 - - - - + Rail transport Dakar-Baako (FM/t) 18,220 18,220 18,220 18,220 + Road transport Abidjan-Mopti (FM/t) - - - - 18,100 18,100 18,100 18,100 + Unloading Bamako or Hopti (FP/t) 1,O00 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Wholesale Price Bamako or Mopti 132,270 144,520 157,750 173,430 130,650 142,900 156,130 171,810 (without OPAM's margin)
- Road transport Mopti-Beuako(FM/t) 16,640 16,640 16,640 16,640 - _ -_ - - Milling costs (FM/t) 14,710 14,710 14,710 14,710 14,710 14,710 14,710 14,710 -,Paddy and Rice bags (FM/t) 8,310 8,310 8,310 8,310 8,310 8,310 8,310 8,310 Rice ex factory (FM/t) 92,610 104,860 118,090 133,780 107,630 119,880 133,110 148,290
Paddy Equivalent (62%) 57,420 65,015 73,215 82,945 66,730 74,325 82,530 91,940
- Tranaport to sill (IM/t) 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 - Collection costs (FM/t) 3,445 3,445 3,445 3,445 3,445 3,445 3,445 3,445 - Losses 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,250
Economic Price of Paddy, Farm Gate (FM/t) 452,55 53,l50 61,350 71,080 54,865 62,370 70,665 80,075
Rounded (FM/kg) 46 53 61 71 55 62 71 80
1/ Derived from World Bank Forecasts: Price Prospects for Major Primary Commodities, May 1977. m x At FM490/1$US. 4-. o- - 102 - ANNEX 10 Table 5
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Development of the Rice Marketing Bareme for ORM, 1974/75 - 1977/78 (in FM/t)
1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 6/
Producer Price Paddy 1/ 40,000 40,000 40,000 45,000 Extension +Crop protection - - - 5,321 Losses (5%) 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,250 Paddy Collection 2,475 2,475 2,475 3,444 Paddy Transport 2,275 2,275 4,030 5,915 Paddy Bags 2,645 2,645 5,280 - Paddy Deliveredat Rice Mill 49,395 49,395 53,785 61,930
Rice Equivalent 75,986 2/ 79,669 3/ 86,750 3/ 99,887 3/ Milling Cost 1;',000 8,695 8,695 14,712 Rice Bags :L,450 1,450 2,790 8,310 7/ Rice Cost ex-mill 89,436 89,814 98,235 122,909
FinancialCharges 2,130 2,582 5,485 6,821 Transport Costs 10,880 6,000 6,000 8,000 OPAM WholesaleMargin ',000 7,000 5,000 7,500 Retailer'sMargin 1,500 1,500 1,500 3,000 OSP Subsidy - - - 620 -10,798 Consumer Price 4/ 116,762 106,896 115,600 137,432
Consumer Price by Grades (FM/kg) ELB 123.50 123.50 123.50 148.60 RM 25 115.60 115.60 115.60 141.10 RM 40 111.50 111.50 111.50 136.60 BB 93.00 93.00 93.00 118.60 Prix de Cession 5/ ELB 110.50 110.50 110.50 145.60 RM 25 102.60 107.60 102.60 138.10 RM 40 98.50 98.50 98.50 133.60 BB 80.00 80.00 80.00 115.60
1/ White rice. 2/ Milling ratio 65%. 3/ Milling ratio 62%. 4/ Weighted average of qualitiesproduced (see below). 5/ Price paid by OPAM to rice-millingagency (Office du Niger or ORM). 6/ New prices as of autumn 1977. 7/ Includes paddy bags. Sources: Annual Government Decrees on Cereals Marketing Baremes. 103- - ANNEX 11 Table 1
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Unit Costs of Farm Inputs (FM)
Cost to Economy Cost to Farmer /1
1. Plough Unit Cost 76,300 67,100 Amortization /2 7,630 6,710 Cost per ha /3 1,910 1,680 Maintenance per year /4 3,360 3,360 Maintenance per ha 840 840
2. Harrow Unit Cost 51,900 45,700 Amortization /2 5,190 4,570 Cost per ha /5 650 570 Maintenance per year /4 2,280 2,280 Maintenance per ha 280 280
3. Cultivator Unit Cost 90,800 83,000 Amortization /2 9,080 8,300 Cost per ha /5 1,140 1,040 Maintenance per year /4 4,150 4,150 Maintenance per ha 520 520
4. Pair of Oxen Unit Cost 130,100 130,100 Amortization - /6 - /6 Maintenance of oxen and gear, food 475/day 475/day
5. Fertilizer Urea (t) 151,400 97,000
6. Threshing Mechanical Thresher 5,100,000 5,100,000 Amortization per ton /7 2,830 2,830 Maintenance per ton /8 280 280 Operating Cost per ton /9 900 900 Rate charged by ORM 4,000/ton 4,000/ton
7. Line-Sowing Seeder 330,000 330,000 Amortization per year /10 41,200 41,200 Amortization per ha /11 690 690 Maintenance per year /4 16,500 16,500 Maintenance per ha /11 275 275 Rate charged by ORM 1,000/ha 1,000/ha
/1 For items 1-3 and 5, SCAER prices; for items 6-7, ORM cost price; for item 4, estimated real cost. /2 10 years. /3 On the basis of 4 ha/unit. /4 5Z of cost to farmer, annually. /5 On the basis of 8 ha/unit. /6 No amortization as animals are sold at least at purchase price due to gain in weight. /7 Amortization 5 years, 360 ton/year. /8 10 of cost annually. /9 Rough estimate. /10 8 years. /11 60 ha/year. - 104 - ANNEX II Table 2
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Labor and Equipment Input of Farming Operations (days/ha)
Equipment Labor
Ploughing /a 6 12 Crushing Clods by Daba 5 Harrowing /a 1 2 Sowing, broad cast 1 Line-sowing /a 0.5 1 Weeding by hand - before flooding 15 Weeding, ox-drawn /a 2 6 Spreading fertilizer I Harvesting with sickle 20/25 Threshing with flail 45 kg/day Winnowing 3 Threshing, mechanical 600 kg/hour
/a Plus correspondingtime and costs for use of oxen. ANNEX 11 - 105 - Table 3
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Inputs, Yields, and Revenue per Ha at Successive Stages of Cultivation Techniques
(FM/ha, if not specified otherwise)
Stage 0 1 2 3 4
1. Yield (Kg/ha) 700 1,100 1,400 1,900 2,500
2. Producer Price (FM/kg) 4/ 41 41 50 50 50
3. Gross Value of Production 28,700 45,100 70,000 95,000 125,000
4. Annual Input and Equipment Costs Ploughing 1/ 5,370 5,370 5,370 4,410 4,410 Harrowing 1/ - - 2,650 1,325 1,325 Weeding with Cultivator 1/ - - - 2,510 2,510 Seed 2/ 2,240 2,240 4,620 3,700 3,700 Small Tools 3/ 500 500 300 300 300 Fertilizer - - - - 9,700
Subtotal 8,110 8,110 12,940 12,245 21,945
5. Line-Sowing Charge 1/ - - - 1,240 1,240
6. Threshing Charge 5/ - 2,640 3,360 4,560 6,000
7. Net Value of Production 6/ 20,590 34,350 53,700 76,955 95,815
8. Development Levy 7/ - 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000
9. Net Revenue 20,590 22,350 41,700 64,955 83,815
10. Labor Input (MD/ha) 8/ 57 56 75 71 81
11. Return per Man-day (FM) 361 399 556 915 1,035
12. Representative Farm Size (ha) 2,4 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.0
13. Net Revenue per Farm Unit (FM) 49,416 53,640 100,080 181,874 251,445
14. Incremental Net Revenue per Farm Unit (FM) 9/ - 4,224 46,440 81,794 69,571
1/ Including use of oxen. 2/ Stage 0 and 1: 100 kg of red rice at FM 28/kg. At stage 2, 100 kg of Sativa rice of which one quarter renewed at FM 65.0/kg and the remainder valued at FM 50.0/kg. At stages 3 and 4, an economy of 20 kg/ha due to line-sowing. 3/ ORM estimate. 4/ For stage 0 and 1, two thirds of production are assumed to be home-consumed and are valued at FM 50.0/kg; one third is assumed to be marketed at the official price for red rice (FM 28/kgj. 5/ At rate prevailing in 1976/77, i.e. 6 FM per kg of paddy; 40% of harvest assumed to be threshed mechanically. 6/ Line 3 minus lines 4-6. 7/ 240 kg of paddy per ha at FM 50/kg as from 1982. 8/ Assuming 60Z of harvest to be threshed manually. 9/ Increment over preceding stage of cultivation technique. - 106 - ANNEX 11 Table 4
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Land Rent and Development Levies - Rent Recovery Rates (FM/ha)
Stage 0 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Gross Value of Production 1/ 28,700 70,000 95,000 125,000
Net Value of Production 2/ 20,590 53,700 76,955 95,815
Imputed Labor 3/ 17,650 23,250 22,010 25,110
Imputed Interest on Farm Equipment 4/ 2,940 3,325 3,500 3,500
Imputed Risk 5/ - 2,960 4,800
Imputed Management Fee 6/ - 4,130 6,630 9,630
Land Rent 0 22,995 41,875 52,775
Development Levy 7/ - 12,000 12,000 12,000
Rent Recovery Rate 52 29 23
Project average 8/ 33%
1/ Annex 11, Table 3. 2/ Net value after deduction of charges for mechanical threshing of 40% of production and for line-sowing; see Table 3. 3/ The value of labor was calculated as a residual for stage 0. The resulting shadow price of labor is about MF 310/day which is about 80% of the wages of unskilled labor employed by the project. 4/ The annuity for 10% interest over a 10 year life time is 16.3%. Since 10% amortization have been deducted as annual input costs (Annex 10, Table 3) only 6.3% of the value of farm equipment (incl. oxen) were deducted in addition. 5/ Risk allowances are entered for the purchase of advanced equipment (cultivator, 10% of cost to farmer, spread over 2.8 ha average farm size) and fertilizer (20% of cost to farmer). In stage 2, farmers equipment and inputs do not differ significantly from their style of operation under traditional cultivation (stage 0). 6/ 10% of incremental gross value of production (compared to traditional cultivation). 7/ As from 1982/83. 8/ For shares of stages 2-4 at full development see Annex 9, Table 3. - 107 - ANNEX 12 Page 1
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Financial Implications for ORM and Government
1. Development levies in kg of paddy per ha as proposed in the appraisal report for the Mopti I Rice Project (Credit 277-MLI) are compared with present ORM policy and with the levies which Government agreed to implement under the Mopti II Rice Project (in kg/ha).
Credit ORM Proposed Year Agreement Policy Levies
1972 60 60
1973 60 60
1974 60 80
1975 60 100
1976 60 120
1977 120 140 140
1978 120 160 160
1979 120 180 180
1980 120 180 200
1981 120 180 220
1982 180 180 240
1983 180 180 240
(Government has given assurances that the levy will be brought to the level of 240 kg/ha in 1982. It is assumed that this will be achieved by annual increases of 20 kg/ha, but ORM is free to choose a different time-path if circumstances warrant it).
2. Table 1 shows the forecast of ORM revenue and expenditure (in con- stant 1977 prices) based on:
- development levies as shown in the last column of para 1; - 108- ANNEX 12 Page 2
a producer price of MF 50/kg;
revenue from other sources as explained in the foot- notes of Table 1;
- Government and IDA participationin project costs at a rate of 30% for 1978-82 (Annex 7, Tables 8 and 9) and no further participationthereafter;
- debt servicing at the charge of Government.
The financial implicationsfor Government are summarizedin Tables 2 and 3.
3. Cost recovery has been calculated in Table 4. Under the assumptions made in this report, includingthe necessarilyarbitrary estimatesof what constitutesincremental staff and operatingexpenditure, and at a discount rate of 10%, just under half of total project cost is recoveredfrom recur- rent revenue of ORM. Most of the other half is recovered in the form of savings on import subsidies which Government would have to lay out, in the absence of the project, as from 1983 (Table 3). - 19 -ANRE 12 Table 1
MOPTI II RI F10.;
Pr4octicn of JR Revenue ac 1978 - 1987
(in FM MI' iSon; CO-n?tPl *1^-I .f Dec. 1977)
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 988 -2003
Costs
Staff 1/ 159 164 172 185 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 Operating expenditture 2/ 241 266 297 333 354 387 420 425 427 429 429 Total 400 430 469 518 549 582 615 620 622 624 624
Revenue
Reimbursement for paddy collection and transport to mill 3/ 169 197 257 344 390 456 483 492 497 503 506 Net revenue from aer. credit 4/ 2 5 7 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 Seed-farm sales 5/ 13 17 20 23 26 29 31 33 33 33 33 Ploughing charges 6/ 12 18 24 30 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 Line-sowing charges 7/ 5 7 10 17 19 20 22 23 24 24 24 Threshing charges 8/ 66 81 105 141 159 186 199 203 204 206 208 Development levy 9/ 133 168 238 334 404 430 434 437 437 437 437 Subtotal 400 493 661 898 1,045 1,169 1,218 1,238 1,246 1,255 1,260 Participatic9 of the Project in staff and operating expenditure 10/ 145 153 165 181 194 ------Total Revenue 545 646 826 1,079 1,239 1,169 1,218 1,238 1,246 1,255 1,260
Cash Flow before equip- ment renewal 145 216 357 561 690 587 603 618 624 631 636 Cumulative, 5 years 361 718 1,279 1.969 1,190 1,808 2,432 3,063
Equipment renewal requirements, 5 years llJ - -- 1,045 ------2,290 458 12/
;Residual revenue, 5 years period __ - ; 4 …______+ 773 +178 12/
1/ Annex 7, Table S. Without techn. assistance. Includes adult literacy personnel. 2/ Annex 7, Table 9. Includes operating costs for adult literacy, the audio-visual program and agricultural research; with 10% physical contingencies. Excludes equipment renewal. 31 For paddy collection, transport to mill, contribution to extensito service and crop prrtectios cost, FM 14,680/t are reimbursed according to the 1977/78 barime. The allowance for losses (PH 2,250/t) Is not coumted as losses have been left out of account under costs as well. 4/ Reaidual income from interest on credit for implmnts and fertilize:. (Anex 7, Table 10) after allowing for bad debts. 5/ At MF 65/kg. At full capacity, the seed farm will sell 520 tunesof seed annually. Sales wIll gradually rise to that level. 6/ At HF 12,000/ha. Areas ploughed by tractor are projected to be 1,000 ha in 1978 and to risg to 3,000 ha in 1982. Instead of ploughing services, this category may also contain revenue from transport or other services performed with tractors. 7/ At HF 1,000/ha. For areas under line-sowing see Annex 9, Table 3. 8/ At MF 6/kg. Production threshed mechanically is asusued to be equal to marketed production. See footnote 3 above. 4/ Starting with 160 kg/ha in 1978 and increasing by 20 kg/ha annually until the final level of 240 kg/ha is reached in 1982. Levies are assumed to be collected for 90% of sown area until 1982 and for 95% thereafter. 10/ See Annex 7, Tables 8 and 9. 10% physical contingencies hbve been added to the participation in operating expenditure. Includes also the 1002 financing of the adult literacy and audiovisual program's staff and operating expenditure and agricultural research's operating expenditure. 11/ Equipment includes all items listed a such in the ORM budget, including electrical lnstallations and furniture. For 1972-76, figures were taken from the 1976 0Rl Bilan, all costs expressed in Dec. 1977 prices. For 1977, the balance available in the disbursement schedule of Credit 277-4I, Category I, was used. For equipment 1978-82, see Annex 7, Table 6 plus physical contingencies of 5%. No attempt was made to distribute renewals over individaal years. 12/ Annual average at full development. ANNEX12 - 110 - Table 2
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Import Subsidies Saved by Incremental Production (in FM per ton)
Bamako a/ Mopti Region b/ a) Retail price 1/ 138,900 138,900
Minus retail margin 3,000 3,000
OPAMtax 7,500 7,500
Wholesale price 128,400 128,400
Cost ex-mill Mopti 122,910 122,910X
Plus road transport to Bamako 2/ 16,640 -
Cost ORM rice at consumptionplace 139,550 122,910
Subsidy 11,150 - 5,490 b) Import substitutioncost wholesale level 3/ 173,400 171,800
Wholesale price 128,400 128,400
Subsidy 45,000 43,400 c) Difference of subsidy (local production against imports,: 33,850 48,890
Per ton of paddy (62%) 20,990 30,311
(Rounded,per kg) 21.0 30.3
a/ 45% of incrementalproduction. b/ 55% of incremental production. 1/ Annex 10, Table 5. The reference price is 50% of RM25 and 50% of RM40. 2/ The bareme shows a perequated cost representingthe average distance for all rice moved in Mali. 3/ See Annex 10, Table 4b; the 1980-85 price forecast was used. MALI
MOPTI II RICE flS CT
Isoact of Project on Goverrment Revenue
978198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989-1997
Incremental Froduction from the - 2 6 19 26 28 32 32 33 33 34 34 Project (1,000 t of paddy) I/ Imports substituted by the Project (1,000 t of paddy) 2/ 1 14 28 32 33 34 34
Import Subsidy Saved (MFmillion) J/ 26 365 731 835 861 887 887
Servicixg of IDA and ADF Credits (NF million) L/ 2 13 33 56 72 77 77 77 77 77 180 180 Irput Subsidies kl 8 18 28 44 65 115 128 154 154 154 I* 1514
Goverrmcnt Contribution to ProJect Cost (MFmillion) 6/ 56 59 65 72 76 Total Goverrunent Cost (MF million) 66 90 126 172 213 192 205 230 231 231 334 334 lNet Impact on Goverrvent Revenue (MFmillion) - 66 - 90 -126 -172 -213 - 166 + 160 + 501 + 604 + 630 + 553 + 553
Annex 9, Table 4. Annax 10, Table 3. y At FM 26.1 per kg of paddy. See AnrBx12, Table 2. (45%Bamako, 55%Mopti). /Expenditure of US$15.0 million (IDA) and US$6.0 million (ADF) are both assumed to follow pattern of disbursement schectadx in Table 2 of Annex 8. Annex 7, Table 10, plas physical contingencies. Extrapolated beyond 1982 on the basis of Anaox 9, Table 3. Annex 7, Tables 8 and 9. Inc2uding physical contingencies for operating e.penditure. 50% of amounts shown in tbese tables (exol. applied research) at the charge of Government for 1978-82. MALI
MOFPI II RICE PROJECT
Cost RecoverY Index and Fiscal Ratio (in FMmlin,ot of taxes)
Tat al OPAM Total Nc Government Savings Investmentl/ Increm. Increm. Increm. Increm. Developm. Reimburse- Threahing Other Incr. on Subsidies i InM + Replacement Staff 2/ Op. Cest 2/ Tech. Asst. 4/ Cost Lev 6J/ monSteL/ Charges8 R/e Revemde o- bs Total
1 601 47 55 75 778 - -_ - 8 -8 2 2,504 48 60 75 2,687 - 37 15 - 52 - 18 34 3 2,717 50 67 75 2,909 3 .76 31 1 ill - 28 83 4 1,462 54 76 56 1,650 80 189 77 39 385 - 44 341 5 217 56 81 40 394 130 225 92 53 500 - 39 461 6 144 56 89 - 289 133 264 108 54 559 +250 809 7 144 56 98 - 298 136 284 116 55 591 +603 1,194 8 144 56 99 - 299 138 286 117 55 596 +681 1,277 9 1144 56 99 - 299 138 287 117 55 597 +707 1,304 10 144 56 100 - 300 138 290 118 55 601 +733 1,334 11-25 144 56 100 - 300 138 292 119 55 604 +733 1,337
Total * 8,057 3,550 3,142 7,262 Cost Recovery Index - 48 42% Fiscal Ratio =o%
w discounted at 10% p.a.
1/ IncludiDgphysical cortingencies. x/rcluding adult literacy program. 3 EKcludirg adult literacy program and agriculturalresearch but including 100% of audio-visual program. Includes physical contingencies. 50% of total technical assistance. Ineremontalequipnent renewal is estimated to be related partly to incremental area (30% of total) and partly to incremental production (44% of total). A share of 37% was adopted. J For incrementalareas see AnnBx 9, Table 4. Levies per ha are 160 kg in 1978, 180 kg in 1979, 200 kg in 1980, 220 kg in 1981 and 240 kg thereafter. Producerprice 50 FM/kg. See also Table 1, footnote 9. J/ For incremental production see Annex 9, Table 4. 40% of inrremental production is marketed until 1982 ant 45%thereafter. Reimbursements are 14.680 FM/t for collection, transpcrt and contributionto extension costs and crop protection (Annex 10, Table 5). Reimbursements for weight losses were not included as there would be corresponding real losses not shown under production costs. 8/ FM 6,000/t. Quantitiesthreshed are equal to qcantities marketed. I/ Sales of seed; revenue from agricultural credit; lini-sowing charges. See Table 1 of Annex 12. Incrementalrevenue is proportional to incremental areas cultivated as defined in Annex 9. Table 4. 10/ See Table 3. Subsidies saved on rice imports minss input sabsidies.
Hr - 113 - ANNEX 13
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Economic Justification
1. Project costs in December 1977 prices includingphysical contin- gencies have been adjusted as follows:
- the assistance to the Rural Works Department has been excluded;
- the adult literacy program has been excluded;
- the applied agriculturalresearch program has been excluded;
- only 50% of technical assistance is counted as incrementalcost since, without the project, two technicianswould still be required;
2. Incrementalfarm labor inputs have been derived as shown in Table 3. The opportunitycost of labor (output foregone in traditionalrice production) has been derived in Annex 11, Table 4. This cost, in domestic currency,has been multiplied with the Conversion Factor for rice, as described in Appendix I to this Annex. All other local costs have a conversion factor of 0.88.
3. The economic price of paddy is based on the import substitution price. The use of the import substitutionprice is justifiedbecause the apparent surplus in the initial project years is expected to be either needed for domestic consumptionin years of below average harvest, or accumulated to build up a reserve stock for drought periods. (An alternativecalculation has been made using export parity prices until 1984.)
4. The project period is 25 years. - 114- ANNEX 13 Appendix I
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
ConversionFactors for Costs in Local Currency
1. The standard conversion factor (SCF) for Mali is 0.88.
2. The opportunitycost of farm labor is its production foregone in traditionalrice cultivation,,estimated to be MF 310 per man-day at a producer price of paddy of MF 50/kg (Annex 11, Table 4). The economic price of rice is:
M-F 173.4/kgat the wholesale level in Bamako, and
MF 171.8/kg at the wholesale level in Mopti (Annex 10, Table 4b)
HF 172.5/kg for the weighted average (45%:55%).
The cost of local production is
- MF 139.5/kgat the wholesale level in Bamako
- HMF 122.9/kgat the wholesale level in Mopti (Annex 12, Table 2)
MF 130.4/kgfor the weighted average (45Z:55%).
Thus, the conversionfactor of rice, which expresses 7 hg domestic price level in relation to the internationalprice of rice, is - 1.323; the shadow 130 4 price of labor will be multipliedwith the conversionfactor for rice output foregone. MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Correlation of.Input Costs and Yields per Hectare
Weighted Average Yield Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 FM/ha (t/ha)
Value of Inputs at Cost to Economy (MF/ha) 1/ 13,530 12,525 27,665
Share of Stage (%) in Cultivated Area (with the Project) Year 0 (86.8) (10.5) (2.7) (13,800) (1.48) 1 72.3 23.6 4.1 13,900 1.56 2 66.9 26.5 6.6 14,200 1.61 H 3 59.1 28.5 12.4 15,000 1.68 n 4 43.4 38.9 17.7 15,600 1.80 5 42.0 29.0 29.0 17,300 1.86 6 36.0 32.0 32.0 17,700 1.91 7 25.0 37.5 37.5 18,500 2.00
1/ Val]ueof input costs was derived from Annex 11, Tables 1 and 2.
NB. Since not all polders develop simultaneously,the aggregate yield development does not follow the pattern projected for individual polders (Annex 9, Table 1). Average input costs per ha for the project as a whole are interpolatedwith the help of the above table. The same applies to input costs without the project in Mopti I polders, Syn-Sarantomo II and l Bougoula. For the new polders, input costs are uniformly MF 8,110/ha (corresponding to Stage 0 or Stage 1) in the absence of the project. (See Table 2). MALI HOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Incremen4aJPoductian Ctatn
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 19 84 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 A. With the Project
Yield/ha (t) 1.56 1.61 1.66 1.74 1.78 1.83 1.93 1.9f 1.9K 1.99 2.00 2.00 Inputa/ha (MF/000) 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.3 15,5 16.5 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.5 l8.5 Sown area (1000 he) 18.5 20.8 26.4 33.7 37.4 37.8 38.1 38.3 38.3 38.3 38.3 38.3 Value of Inputs (MF million) 257 295 385 516 580 624 682 693 697 705 709 709
B. Without the Project
a) Hbti I Polders , Syn and
Yield/ha (t) 1.56 1.58 1.57 1.63 1.66 1.68 1.69 1.71 1. 1.73 1.73 1.73 Inputa7ha (MF/000) '13.9 14.0- 14.0 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.8 15.3 15.3 15.3 Sown Are- (ba) 18.5 18.9 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.4 23.2 23.2 23.2 Value of Inputs (MH million) 257 265 316 325 337 348 350 353 354 355 355 355
b) New Poldere -
Yield/ha (t) 0.70 0.70------inputa/ha (MF/OOO) 8.11 8.11 ------Sown Are (ha)( )5 2.1 ------Value of Inputs 17 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 c) Total Value of Inputa without th, ProJect t +-W 257 282 344 353 365 376 378 381 382 383 383 383
C. Incremntal Value of Inputs ( A-B), Mr million 0 13 41 163 215 248 304 312 315 322 326 326
See Annex 9, Table 1 and 2, and Table 1 above.
6 H - 117 - ANNEX 13 Table 3
MALI
MOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Incremental Farm Labor Inputs
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 etc.
I. With the Project
Sown area (1000 ha) 1/ 18.5 20.8 26.4 33.7 37.4 37.8 38.1 38.3
x 75 Man-Days per ha 2/ = 1000 MD 1,388 1,560 1,980 2,528 2,805 2,835 2,858 2,872
II. Without the Project
a) Mopti I Polders, kougoula and Syn- Sarantoo II Sown area (1000 ha) 1/ 18.5 18.9 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.2
x 75 Man-Days per ha 2/ = 1000 MD 1,388 1,418 1,695 1,718 1,733 1,740 1,740 1,740
b) Traditional Production in Mopti II Polders Sown area (1000 ha) 1/ 2.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
x 57 Man-Days per ha 3/ = 1000 MD 120 200 200 200 200 200 200
c) Total Without the Project 1,388 1,538 1,895 1,918 1,933 1,940 1,940 1,940
III. Incremental Labor Input - 22 95 610 872 895 918 932 (1000 MD)
Value at MF 310/MD 4/ - 7 30 189 270 278 285 289 CIE Million)
1/ See Annex 9, Tables 1 and 2 respectively. 2/ The wvighted average of labor inputs of farms at stages 2-4 varies between 73.8 MD and 75.8 MD according to the share of the more labor-intensive technlzues. The suall differences do not warrant a more detailed cal- calation. 3/ See Annex 11, Table 3. 4/ For derivation of this wage rate see Annex 11, Table 4. MALI
NOPTI II RICE PROJECT
Rate of Return Calculation (in HF Million)
Year Increm. Paddy Econ. Value of Investment and Incr. Staff 5/ and Incr, Farm In0cr. Benefits Production 1/ Price 2/ Incr. Replacement 3/ Operatint Costs Inputs 6/ Farm Labor Totgl Costs minus (t) !MLku PrZuction Foreign C. Local C. 41 Foreign C. Local C. 41 Foreien C. Local C .41 Loal C. _/ Foreign C. Local C. Total Costs
I - - 384 192 107 62 - - - 491 251 745 - 745 2 1,050 85.4 90 1,901 625 109 65 7 5 9 2,017 704 2,721 - 2,631 3 3,900 85.4 334 2,243 520 113 70 22 17 40 2,378 647 3,025 - 2,691 4 12,300 85.4 1,050 1,10 4 261 102 76 86 68 250 1,292 655 1,947 - 897 5 22,200 1,9d 85.4 4 217 38 86 80 114 89 357 417 5614 981 t 923 6 26,550 85.4 2,267 130 12 51 81 131 103 368 312 564 876 4 13A 7 29,550 85.4 2,524 130 12 56 86 161 126 377 347 601 918 1,576 8 31,900 85.4 2,74 130 12 57 86 165 129 382 352 609 961 + 1,763 9 32,500 85.4 2,7"5 130 12 57 86 167 131 382 354 611 965 + 1,810 10 33,050 85.4 2,812 130 12 57 87 170 134 382 357 615 972 + 1,850 11 33 650 85.4 2,874 130 12 57 87 173 135 382 12-25 33,900 360 616 976 + 1,898 85.4 2,895 130 12 57 87 173 135 382 360 616 976 4 1,919
1/ Lagged by 6 months in relation to inputs. V Import substitution price (45% Bamako; 55% Mopti) plus MF 9.4/kg for collection and transport to the mill. / Including physical contingencies. Includes civil works, deep ploughing, engineering and supervision, and vehicles and equipment. 9 Standard couesion factor of 0.88 was applied. Inwludee for years 1-5 50% of technical aseistance. See Table 2. Last line of Table 3 converted with conversion factor for rice (output foregon3) of 1.323. See Appendix 1 of Annex 13..
( H MALI MOPTI 11RICE PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 _ NIDC _ J F M A M _ _ A S O N D _ F M J _ 5~~~~~ A~~ J AS F AlmJnIJAII ASF|M|A|M|J|JIA|S|O| ND ASINI ND J1J |MF M A4AM Mt JtJ i |A|S|N-, J F M A M J J A S|O N D E N3// / / / ' / / / NEGOTIATIONS / / / 7 /7/ / // / / / / / / / BOARD PRESENTATION / /// /7 7
TENDER I CIVIL WORKS/D G /NBE S I IN H
AWARD CONTRACT(SI / / / 7 7 7 / 7 / / / / / 7 7 7 / / 7/ / / /o MOBILIZATION/ 4n7 "" "
EXECUTION CIVIL W. / / // 77/ /
- EXISTING POLDERS / ///7// //7/ //7/ /// // // // /
- NEW POLDERS / 40a // // 400a // / 2Oh DEEP PLOUGH-ING 77" 7 7 / / / / / / / ha 7 10 ha / / / -EXISTING ~~~5300 2900 ha / /// POLDERS / // 7 7 I7I/ / / / / 7I / ' -NEWPOLDERS/7 7 / /7 7/7 "~~~~~~~~~~'~~ 2400ha // " 400 /h7 2100 ha / BUILDINGS 7
7Y// /7 /7 //7 7/7
7/ /7
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IBRD 12839
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