Lévy Processes (Math 7880, Spring 2011)
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Persistent Random Walks. II. Functional Scaling Limits
Persistent random walks. II. Functional Scaling Limits Peggy Cénac1. Arnaud Le Ny2. Basile de Loynes3. Yoann Offret1 1Institut de Mathématiques de Bourgogne (IMB) - UMR CNRS 5584 Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 21000 Dijon, France 2Laboratoire d’Analyse et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LAMA) - UMR CNRS 8050 Université Paris Est Créteil, 94010 Créteil Cedex, France 3Ensai - Université de Bretagne-Loire, Campus de Ker-Lann, Rue Blaise Pascal, BP 37203, 35172 BRUZ cedex, France Abstract We give a complete and unified description – under some stability assumptions – of the functional scaling limits associated with some persistent random walks for which the recurrent or transient type is studied in [1]. As a result, we highlight a phase transition phenomenon with respect to the memory. It turns out that the limit process is either Markovian or not according to – to put it in a nutshell – the rate of decrease of the distribution tails corresponding to the persistent times. In the memoryless situation, the limits are classical strictly stable Lévy processes of infinite variations. However, we point out that the description of the critical Cauchy case fills some lacuna even in the closely related context of Directionally Reinforced Random Walks (DRRWs) for which it has not been considered yet. Besides, we need to introduced some relevant generalized drift – extended the classical one – in order to study the critical case but also the situation when the limit is no longer Markovian. It appears to be in full generality a drift in mean for the Persistent Random Walk (PRW). The limit processes keeping some memory – given by some variable length Markov chain – of the underlying PRW are called arcsine Lamperti anomalous diffusions due to their marginal distribution which are computed explicitly here. -
Poisson Representations of Branching Markov and Measure-Valued
The Annals of Probability 2011, Vol. 39, No. 3, 939–984 DOI: 10.1214/10-AOP574 c Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2011 POISSON REPRESENTATIONS OF BRANCHING MARKOV AND MEASURE-VALUED BRANCHING PROCESSES By Thomas G. Kurtz1 and Eliane R. Rodrigues2 University of Wisconsin, Madison and UNAM Representations of branching Markov processes and their measure- valued limits in terms of countable systems of particles are con- structed for models with spatially varying birth and death rates. Each particle has a location and a “level,” but unlike earlier con- structions, the levels change with time. In fact, death of a particle occurs only when the level of the particle crosses a specified level r, or for the limiting models, hits infinity. For branching Markov pro- cesses, at each time t, conditioned on the state of the process, the levels are independent and uniformly distributed on [0,r]. For the limiting measure-valued process, at each time t, the joint distribu- tion of locations and levels is conditionally Poisson distributed with mean measure K(t) × Λ, where Λ denotes Lebesgue measure, and K is the desired measure-valued process. The representation simplifies or gives alternative proofs for a vari- ety of calculations and results including conditioning on extinction or nonextinction, Harris’s convergence theorem for supercritical branch- ing processes, and diffusion approximations for processes in random environments. 1. Introduction. Measure-valued processes arise naturally as infinite sys- tem limits of empirical measures of finite particle systems. A number of ap- proaches have been developed which preserve distinct particles in the limit and which give a representation of the measure-valued process as a transfor- mation of the limiting infinite particle system. -
Poisson Processes Stochastic Processes
Poisson Processes Stochastic Processes UC3M Feb. 2012 Exponential random variables A random variable T has exponential distribution with rate λ > 0 if its probability density function can been written as −λt f (t) = λe 1(0;+1)(t) We summarize the above by T ∼ exp(λ): The cumulative distribution function of a exponential random variable is −λt F (t) = P(T ≤ t) = 1 − e 1(0;+1)(t) And the tail, expectation and variance are P(T > t) = e−λt ; E[T ] = λ−1; and Var(T ) = E[T ] = λ−2 The exponential random variable has the lack of memory property P(T > t + sjT > t) = P(T > s) Exponencial races In what follows, T1;:::; Tn are independent r.v., with Ti ∼ exp(λi ). P1: min(T1;:::; Tn) ∼ exp(λ1 + ··· + λn) . P2 λ1 P(T1 < T2) = λ1 + λ2 P3: λi P(Ti = min(T1;:::; Tn)) = λ1 + ··· + λn P4: If λi = λ and Sn = T1 + ··· + Tn ∼ Γ(n; λ). That is, Sn has probability density function (λs)n−1 f (s) = λe−λs 1 (s) Sn (n − 1)! (0;+1) The Poisson Process as a renewal process Let T1; T2;::: be a sequence of i.i.d. nonnegative r.v. (interarrival times). Define the arrival times Sn = T1 + ··· + Tn if n ≥ 1 and S0 = 0: The process N(t) = maxfn : Sn ≤ tg; is called Renewal Process. If the common distribution of the times is the exponential distribution with rate λ then process is called Poisson Process of with rate λ. Lemma. N(t) ∼ Poisson(λt) and N(t + s) − N(s); t ≥ 0; is a Poisson process independent of N(s); t ≥ 0 The Poisson Process as a L´evy Process A stochastic process fX (t); t ≥ 0g is a L´evyProcess if it verifies the following properties: 1. -
Lectures on Lévy Processes, Stochastic Calculus and Financial
Lectures on L¶evyProcesses, Stochastic Calculus and Financial Applications, Ovronnaz September 2005 David Applebaum Probability and Statistics Department, University of She±eld, Hicks Building, Houns¯eld Road, She±eld, England, S3 7RH e-mail: D.Applebaum@she±eld.ac.uk Introduction A L¶evyprocess is essentially a stochastic process with stationary and in- dependent increments. The basic theory was developed, principally by Paul L¶evyin the 1930s. In the past 15 years there has been a renaissance of interest and a plethora of books, articles and conferences. Why ? There are both theoretical and practical reasons. Theoretical ² There are many interesting examples - Brownian motion, simple and compound Poisson processes, ®-stable processes, subordinated processes, ¯nancial processes, relativistic process, Riemann zeta process . ² L¶evyprocesses are simplest generic class of process which have (a.s.) continuous paths interspersed with random jumps of arbitrary size oc- curring at random times. ² L¶evyprocesses comprise a natural subclass of semimartingales and of Markov processes of Feller type. ² Noise. L¶evyprocesses are a good model of \noise" in random dynamical systems. 1 Input + Noise = Output Attempts to describe this di®erentially leads to stochastic calculus.A large class of Markov processes can be built as solutions of stochastic di®erential equations driven by L¶evynoise. L¶evydriven stochastic partial di®erential equations are beginning to be studied with some intensity. ² Robust structure. Most applications utilise L¶evyprocesses taking val- ues in Euclidean space but this can be replaced by a Hilbert space, a Banach space (these are important for spdes), a locally compact group, a manifold. Quantised versions are non-commutative L¶evyprocesses on quantum groups. -
Lectures on Multiparameter Processes
Lecture Notes on Multiparameter Processes: Ecole Polytechnique Fed´ erale´ de Lausanne, Switzerland Davar Khoshnevisan Department of Mathematics University of Utah Salt Lake City, UT 84112–0090 [email protected] http://www.math.utah.edu/˜davar April–June 2001 ii Contents Preface vi 1 Examples from Markov chains 1 2 Examples from Percolation on Trees and Brownian Motion 7 3ProvingLevy’s´ Theorem and Introducing Martingales 13 4 Preliminaries on Ortho-Martingales 19 5 Ortho-Martingales and Intersections of Walks and Brownian Motion 25 6 Intersections of Brownian Motion, Multiparameter Martingales 35 7 Capacity, Energy and Dimension 43 8 Frostman’s Theorem, Hausdorff Dimension and Brownian Motion 49 9 Potential Theory of Brownian Motion and Stable Processes 55 10 Brownian Sheet and Kahane’s Problem 65 Bibliography 71 iii iv Preface These are the notes for a one-semester course based on ten lectures given at the Ecole Polytechnique Fed´ erale´ de Lausanne, April–June 2001. My goal has been to illustrate, in some detail, some of the salient features of the theory of multiparameter processes and in particular, Cairoli’s theory of multiparameter mar- tingales. In order to get to the heart of the matter, and develop a kind of intuition at the same time, I have chosen the simplest topics of random walks, Brownian motions, etc. to highlight the methods. The full theory can be found in Multi-Parameter Processes: An Introduction to Random Fields (henceforth, referred to as MPP) which is to be published by Springer-Verlag, although these lectures also contain material not covered in the mentioned book. -
POISSON PROCESSES 1.1. the Rutherford-Chadwick-Ellis
POISSON PROCESSES 1. THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS 1.1. The Rutherford-Chadwick-Ellis Experiment. About 90 years ago Ernest Rutherford and his collaborators at the Cavendish Laboratory in Cambridge conducted a series of pathbreaking experiments on radioactive decay. In one of these, a radioactive substance was observed in N = 2608 time intervals of 7.5 seconds each, and the number of decay particles reaching a counter during each period was recorded. The table below shows the number Nk of these time periods in which exactly k decays were observed for k = 0,1,2,...,9. Also shown is N pk where k pk = (3.87) exp 3.87 =k! {− g The parameter value 3.87 was chosen because it is the mean number of decays/period for Rutherford’s data. k Nk N pk k Nk N pk 0 57 54.4 6 273 253.8 1 203 210.5 7 139 140.3 2 383 407.4 8 45 67.9 3 525 525.5 9 27 29.2 4 532 508.4 10 16 17.1 5 408 393.5 ≥ This is typical of what happens in many situations where counts of occurences of some sort are recorded: the Poisson distribution often provides an accurate – sometimes remarkably ac- curate – fit. Why? 1.2. Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution. The ubiquity of the Poisson distri- bution in nature stems in large part from its connection to the Binomial and Hypergeometric distributions. The Binomial-(N ,p) distribution is the distribution of the number of successes in N independent Bernoulli trials, each with success probability p. -
Introduction to Lévy Processes
Introduction to L´evyprocesses Graduate lecture 22 January 2004 Matthias Winkel Departmental lecturer (Institute of Actuaries and Aon lecturer in Statistics) 1. Random walks and continuous-time limits 2. Examples 3. Classification and construction of L´evy processes 4. Examples 5. Poisson point processes and simulation 1 1. Random walks and continuous-time limits 4 Definition 1 Let Yk, k ≥ 1, be i.i.d. Then n X 0 Sn = Yk, n ∈ N, k=1 is called a random walk. -4 0 8 16 Random walks have stationary and independent increments Yk = Sk − Sk−1, k ≥ 1. Stationarity means the Yk have identical distribution. Definition 2 A right-continuous process Xt, t ∈ R+, with stationary independent increments is called L´evy process. 2 Page 1 What are Sn, n ≥ 0, and Xt, t ≥ 0? Stochastic processes; mathematical objects, well-defined, with many nice properties that can be studied. If you don’t like this, think of a model for a stock price evolving with time. There are also many other applications. If you worry about negative values, think of log’s of prices. What does Definition 2 mean? Increments , = 1 , are independent and Xtk − Xtk−1 k , . , n , = 1 for all 0 = . Xtk − Xtk−1 ∼ Xtk−tk−1 k , . , n t0 < . < tn Right-continuity refers to the sample paths (realisations). 3 Can we obtain L´evyprocesses from random walks? What happens e.g. if we let the time unit tend to zero, i.e. take a more and more remote look at our random walk? If we focus at a fixed time, 1 say, and speed up the process so as to make n steps per time unit, we know what happens, the answer is given by the Central Limit Theorem: 2 Theorem 1 (Lindeberg-L´evy) If σ = V ar(Y1) < ∞, then Sn − (Sn) √E → Z ∼ N(0, σ2) in distribution, as n → ∞. -
Spatio-Temporal Cluster Detection and Local Moran Statistics of Point Processes
Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations Mathematics & Statistics Spring 2019 Spatio-Temporal Cluster Detection and Local Moran Statistics of Point Processes Jennifer L. Matthews Old Dominion University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/mathstat_etds Part of the Applied Statistics Commons, and the Biostatistics Commons Recommended Citation Matthews, Jennifer L.. "Spatio-Temporal Cluster Detection and Local Moran Statistics of Point Processes" (2019). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Dissertation, Mathematics & Statistics, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/3mps-rk62 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/mathstat_etds/46 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Mathematics & Statistics at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ABSTRACT Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited SPATIO-TEMPORAL CLUSTER DETECTION AND LOCAL MORAN STATISTICS OF POINT PROCESSES Jennifer L. Matthews Commander, United States Navy Old Dominion University, 2019 Director: Dr. Norou Diawara Moran's index is a statistic that measures spatial dependence, quantifying the degree of dispersion or clustering of point processes and events in some location/area. Recognizing that a single Moran's index may not give a sufficient summary of the spatial autocorrelation measure, a local -
Part C Lévy Processes and Finance
Part C Levy´ Processes and Finance Matthias Winkel1 University of Oxford HT 2007 1Departmental lecturer (Institute of Actuaries and Aon Lecturer in Statistics) at the Department of Statistics, University of Oxford MS3 Levy´ Processes and Finance Matthias Winkel – 16 lectures HT 2007 Prerequisites Part A Probability is a prerequisite. BS3a/OBS3a Applied Probability or B10 Martin- gales and Financial Mathematics would be useful, but are by no means essential; some material from these courses will be reviewed without proof. Aims L´evy processes form a central class of stochastic processes, contain both Brownian motion and the Poisson process, and are prototypes of Markov processes and semimartingales. Like Brownian motion, they are used in a multitude of applications ranging from biology and physics to insurance and finance. Like the Poisson process, they allow to model abrupt moves by jumps, which is an important feature for many applications. In the last ten years L´evy processes have seen a hugely increased attention as is reflected on the academic side by a number of excellent graduate texts and on the industrial side realising that they provide versatile stochastic models of financial markets. This continues to stimulate further research in both theoretical and applied directions. This course will give a solid introduction to some of the theory of L´evy processes as needed for financial and other applications. Synopsis Review of (compound) Poisson processes, Brownian motion (informal), Markov property. Connection with random walks, [Donsker’s theorem], Poisson limit theorem. Spatial Poisson processes, construction of L´evy processes. Special cases of increasing L´evy processes (subordinators) and processes with only positive jumps. -
Levy Processes
LÉVY PROCESSES, STABLE PROCESSES, AND SUBORDINATORS STEVEN P.LALLEY 1. DEFINITIONSAND EXAMPLES d Definition 1.1. A continuous–time process Xt = X(t ) t 0 with values in R (or, more generally, in an abelian topological groupG ) isf called a Lévyg ≥ process if (1) its sample paths are right-continuous and have left limits at every time point t , and (2) it has stationary, independent increments, that is: (a) For all 0 = t0 < t1 < < tk , the increments X(ti ) X(ti 1) are independent. − (b) For all 0 s t the··· random variables X(t ) X−(s ) and X(t s ) X(0) have the same distribution.≤ ≤ − − − The default initial condition is X0 = 0. A subordinator is a real-valued Lévy process with nondecreasing sample paths. A stable process is a real-valued Lévy process Xt t 0 with ≥ initial value X0 = 0 that satisfies the self-similarity property f g 1/α (1.1) Xt =t =D X1 t > 0. 8 The parameter α is called the exponent of the process. Example 1.1. The most fundamental Lévy processes are the Wiener process and the Poisson process. The Poisson process is a subordinator, but is not stable; the Wiener process is stable, with exponent α = 2. Any linear combination of independent Lévy processes is again a Lévy process, so, for instance, if the Wiener process Wt and the Poisson process Nt are independent then Wt Nt is a Lévy process. More important, linear combinations of independent Poisson− processes are Lévy processes: these are special cases of what are called compound Poisson processes: see sec. -
Thick Points for the Cauchy Process
Ann. I. H. Poincaré – PR 41 (2005) 953–970 www.elsevier.com/locate/anihpb Thick points for the Cauchy process Olivier Daviaud 1 Department of Mathematics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA Received 13 June 2003; received in revised form 11 August 2004; accepted 15 October 2004 Available online 23 May 2005 Abstract Let µ(x, ) denote the occupation measure of an interval of length 2 centered at x by the Cauchy process run until it hits −∞ − ]∪[ ∞ 2 → → ( , 1 1, ). We prove that sup|x|1 µ(x,)/((log ) ) 2/π a.s. as 0. We also obtain the multifractal spectrum 2 for thick points, i.e. the Hausdorff dimension of the set of α-thick points x for which lim→0 µ(x,)/((log ) ) = α>0. 2005 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. Résumé Soit µ(x, ) la mesure d’occupation de l’intervalle [x − ,x + ] parleprocessusdeCauchyarrêtéàsasortiede(−1, 1). 2 → → Nous prouvons que sup|x|1 µ(x, )/((log ) ) 2/π p.s. lorsque 0. Nous obtenons également un spectre multifractal 2 de points épais en montrant que la dimension de Hausdorff des points x pour lesquels lim→0 µ(x, )/((log ) ) = α>0est égale à 1 − απ/2. 2005 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. MSC: 60J55 Keywords: Thick points; Multi-fractal analysis; Cauchy process 1. Introduction Let X = (Xt ,t 0) be a Cauchy process on the real line R, that is a process starting at 0, with stationary independent increments with the Cauchy distribution: s dx P X + − X ∈ (x − dx,x + dx) = ,s,t>0,x∈ R. -
Disentangling Diffusion from Jumps Yacine A¨It-Sahalia
Disentangling Diffusion from Jumps Yacine A¨ıt-Sahalia Princeton University 1. Introduction The present paper asks a basic question: how does the presence of jumps impact our ability to estimate the diffusion parameter σ2? • I start by presenting some intuition that seems to suggest that the identification of σ2 is hampered by the presence of the jumps... • But, surprisingly, maximum-likelihood can actually perfectly disen- tangle Brownian noise from jumps provided one samples frequently enough. • I first show this result in the context of a compound Poisson process, i.e., a jump-diffusion as in Merton (1976). • One may wonder whether this result is driven by the fact that Poisson jumps share the dual characteristic of being large and infrequent. • Is it possible to perturb the Brownian noise by a L´evypure jump process other than Poisson, and still recover the parameter σ2 as if no jumps were present? • The reason one might expect this not to be possible is the fact that, among L´evypure jump processes, the Poisson process is the only one with a finite number of jumps in a finite time interval. • All other pure jump processes exhibit an infinite number of small jumps in any finite time interval. • Intuitively, these tiny jumps ought to be harder to distinguish from Brownian noise, which it is also made up of many small moves. • Perhaps more surprisingly then, I find that maximum likelihood can still perfectly discriminate between Brownian noise and a Cauchy process. • Every L´evyprocess can be uniquely expressed as the sum of three independent canonical L´evyprocesses: 1.