MONTHLY PUBLICATION 17 March 2021 | Vol-3, Issue-3
Road Less Travelled
INSIDE THE ISSUE
Takeaways of call with the President of the Nashik
Painters Association Cement: Supply-chain efficiency improvements Detailed story on pg. 2 visible Detailed story on pg. 4
RETROSPECTIVE PERSPECTIVE Key events of the last few weeks…. Perpetual bonds – what’s up? The rise of NFTs Takeaways of call with north-India based ITC Congress Rift: G23 distributor Polar Silk Road Detailed story on pg. 2 The state of spending in India and fuel Electric vehicles – are we there yet? 1984’d? India’s new rules to regulate online content
News round-up of the month Detailed story on pg. 5-9
Channel checks with north India-based distributors of Emami Detailed story on pg. 3
Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer.
Takeaways of call with the President of the Nashik Painters Association by Vishal Gutka
• Demand is gradually recovering in the individual home for completion of segment: Demand is almost back to pre-covid levels owing to projects has reducing cases of covid-19, vaccine rollout and adoption of best-in- reduced class sanitization practices by paint companies. Trend such as a substantially. Not reducing repainting cycle, premiumization, and increased usage of all contractors can branded products are helping. afford these • Projects business on an accelerated growth mode: Paint machines, as they contractors have healthy order books, since real-estate developers are costly and if are focusing on giving possession to buyers, and there is good they get damaged, uptick in real estate demand due to lower interest rates. the project might get stuck. • Berger has made good inroads into the contractor segment: • Aggressiveness of paint companies into the waterproofing Many of the paint contractors in Nashik area have switched to range: Paint companies today have established a separate division Berger from Asian Paints over the past few years, because of the for waterproofing, providing products like membrane and former’s better margins, better quality of products in certain sub- membrane-coating. They have targeted internal waterproofing as segments, and improved service standards. well. • Has automation led to decrease in number of laborers? Even • Price hike: Paint companies have taken low-single-digit price hikes with automation of painting projects to a certain extent (increased in exterior paints; few financially strong contractors have started adoption of putty mixer, spraying machines), there is no significant stocking paint products, expecting more price hikes ahead. decline in the number of laborers needed. However, the duration
Takeaways of call with north-India based ITC distributor by Vishal Gutka
which involves high-level engagement with government officials (specifically regulatory authorities) to curb sales of contraband. The government is taking a keen interest, given its precarious fiscal situation. • Subdued volume growth is hurting brand investments: ITC has gone on a cost rationalization drive and reduced display pay-outs to retailers for its key cigarette outlets, which again is taking a toll on its volume growth.
• FMCG: Since most covid-19-related tailwinds have abated, the • Demand, after seeing an uptick in Jan, has stagnated again: FMCG segment growth has seen significant moderation from Historically, cigarette consumption increases during winter, but this 1HFY21 levels. time, it has not seen a similar jump. This is because of increasing
noise around covid-19 and the perception that smokers are more Product performance: prone to covid as it harms lungs. In fact, demand reduced. With 1) Savlon range of products, which had even outperformed Dettol schools and colleges not opening, and a rise in temperature in during the initial phase of the pandemic, have registered negative coming months, cigarette volumes will be hit. Many retailers had growth due to the roll-out of the vaccine and easing up of the covid stocked up, anticipating price hikes due to expectations of tax scenario. increases in the Union Budget. Jan 2021 saw 10% value growth; 2) Yippee: Sales for Yippee have gone down drastically vs. 1HFY21, Feb saw +5%; March is down 20% so far. since Maggi, which earlier was facing distribution constraints, has • Market share in overall cigarette industry is declining: started reaching every nook and corner. To enhance sales, it has Although ITC might be gaining some market share from other started giving complimentary namkeen packets with select Yippee organized players (VST Industries, GPI) who are grappling with their packs. own challenges, overall, it is losing market share to contraband/ 3) Bingo: ITC came up with new launches in Bingo such as No Rule, illegal / unorganized players. These are gaining due to the high Breakfast Snack, and newer variants in Mad Angles, but they failed. margins they give retailers, plus, they don’t carry pictorial warnings These have now been withdrawn from the market. Key products on their packs, and their cigarettes are priced cheaper. such as Bingo Chips and Tedhe Medhe are doing well. • ITC is working on an aggressive combat plan to curb sales of contraband cigarettes: ITC is working on a plan across India,
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4) Ashirwad Atta (flour): With other branded players (such as • New launches: ITC is planning a big bang foray into new Nature's Fresh) and unorganized players coming back to the categories. It is focusing on cake, bottled soup, chocolates (Rs 5/10) market, ITC, which had gained lot of market share during 1HFY21, and flavoured milk. It has also started installing chillers in select has started giving it back. This has made it become aggressive – by retail outlets, as it plans to prepare a high-decibel media campaign giving flat Rs 50 discount on a 50kg atta packet. around chocolates and flavoured milk.
Channel checks with north India-based distributors of Emami Key takeaways by Vishal Gutka
from Nielsen. But, it was not that impactful, and it was expensive as well. Hence, the company decided to reduced its exposure to negligible.
New launches tracking well During Covid, Emami reduced the MRP of its new launches (home- care range) instead of opting for promos. This, and RB (Harpic) facing
some stock-related issues helped Emami gain. Acceptance for its Strong recovery in the wholesale channel toilet cleaner and dish-wash is better than other companies’ home Two years ago, Emami’s wholesale channel was under tremendous care ranges. pressure; it was seeing sales decline by 40-45% – mainly related to In soaps, its LUP is doing extremely well, and is expected to gain the north region. To counter this challenge, it launched a loyalty some market share. program called Champions Club to revive its wholesale business. Acceptance of Aloe Vera Gel is good due to its huge distribution Under this programme, Emami targeted top-20% wholesalers who network in the north region (150,000 outlets) as there aren’t many contributed mainly to sales, and designed extra schemes for them players in this space apart from Patanjali. specifically. As a result, this channel has revived and has started seeing healthy growth. Power brands Its wholesale business is tracking well on solid improvement in • Navratna: Placement for Navratna brand, ahead of the summer cash-conversion, as wholesalers are now ordering quantities season, has been quite robust, as temperatures have started equivalent to near-term demand vs. the erstwhile practice of soaring. stocking more-than-desired quantities. • Kesh King: Kesh King continues to perform; recently, Emami As a result, investment in stocks has reduced significantly. changed its MRP for its 300ml pack. However, the MRP for its 100 Moreover, the credit period in metro cities to the wholesale channel ml and 50 ml packs remains the same.
has approximately halved to 8-10 days (from 15-20 days), and in • Zandu: Zandu Balm’s growth has seen a significant boost in non-metro cities, it is only around 3-7 days. 9MFY21 on market-share gains from unorganized /local players and increased consumption (customers apply balm while taking Emami needs to take new steps to enhance distribution reach: steam). However, this has receded as both the factors have reversed Emami came up with an expansion project called ‘RACE’ to increase now. direct distribution in the outskirts of metro cities. This was based on data
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Cement: Supply-chain efficiency improvements visible Clear indications from the ground on various initiatives by several manufacturers. Next structural and sustainable re-rating trigger for the sector by Vaibhav Agarwal
Over the last few days there have been several media reports of a robust increase in cement prices across regions ranging from Rs 20-50/bag. While cement prices are likely to improve in Q4, our channel checks do not corroborate robust price hikes. The maximum we hear is Rs 10-20/bag price hikes across pockets.
We hear of a strong volume commentary for February 2021, and a similar sustained trend in March 2021 too. Despite February being just a 28-day month, most of the cement manufacturers and dealers have recorded historic high volumes, and this is a huge morale booster for cement manufacturers. But, the caveat to this is that we also hear that many marketing executives are running with phenomenal volume targets and most manufacturers have an internal wish to bring their FY21 despatch numbers closer to FY20 despatches.
Another critical concern on the ground is about the festival of Holi in March 2021, which is towards the end of the month, on 29th March, and We do not expect improvements in cement prices in Q4, in excess of Rs which may mean that the last week of March 2021, which is generally the 10-20/bag on average. Though the demand momentum currently remains peak volume push month, may see muted despatches. Therefore, a very strong, we also continue to believe that percentage growth numbers negative volume commentary towards the end of March 2021 may not be may be deceptive in cement demand most times because of base effect ruled out. In line with historic trends, the expectation of volumes for April and other similar reasons. It is mainly the directional trend of absolute 2021 is relatively muted. volume numbers that remains the key to watch and we expect the directional improvement trend of 20-25mn tonnes on an annualized basis But on the other end, we continue to hear of several initiatives from to continue in the longer term. various manufacturers to improve their net realisations / reduce costs through tweaks in their supply-chain business practices. From our Overall, our channel and ground checks firmly re-iterate several interactions with the ground, we also heard of a possible tweak in billing directional initiatives / intent by various manufacturers to improve their practices of few specific cement manufacturers, which can help them respective supply-chain quotient, and which will ultimately lead to a increase their realisations by c.Rs 70 per tonne without a single rupee directional re-rating for the sector and also for these specific increase in exiting market prices. We continue to believe firmly that such manufacturers. It is mainly the ground business practices that makes the news flow of robust price hikes is not to be believed on face value. whole difference to the operating numbers of various manufacturers – it is what we continue to firmly believe.
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many bonds necessary to keep its 10-year yield near zero. For now, it RETROSPECTIVE PERSPECTIVE has said it ‘must’ keep this ‘stably low.’ – by Roshan Sony Snippets Perpetual bonds – what’s up? Key events of the last few weeks…. In October, SEBI banned retail participation in perpetual bonds after write-offs from YES Bank and LVB hit investors in such bonds. India sees a resurgence in corona cases led by Maharashtra. Sebi had decided to restrict mutual fund investments in additional Europe sees third coronavirus wave while UK and USA cases reduce tier-1 (AT1) bonds. The logic is simple – mutual funds are considered drastically. retail products; why allow fund houses to invest in perpetual bonds if India lags in the vaccinations game. Manages to jab less than 2% of retail investors are banned from participating in these? SEBI is facing population while US, UK vaccinate 20-35%. India faces twin opposition to this stance. challenges of overcoming reluctance and a smoother rollout process What are they? AT1 bonds, or perpetual bonds, offer attractive considering its enormous population. returns. They are issued by banks, but US to rollout huge stimulus package. they are unsecured. Issuers can Texas and Georgia reel from an ice storm. basically dodge paying interest on Myanmar protests continue after military coup. them if their finances come under Commodities surge +60% from 2020 lows; costlier than 2013. stress and can totally extinguish them Oil surges past US$ 70 per barrel. if they are in a crisis. AT1 Bonds stand for additional tier-1 bonds and have no maturity date; they have call option, which can be used by the banks to buy these bonds back from investors. Mutual funds hold about 40% of the total Rs 900bn worth of such bonds currently outstanding. Market reports indicate 36 MF schemes from 13 fund houses already hold AT1 bonds above SEBI’s 10% per scheme limit.
SBI Managing Director Ashwani Bhatia to the media: “Sebi notification of AT1 bonds affects banks the most. If the total advances of the risk- weighted assets of banks today are in excess of Rs 100 lakh crore, they can raise about 1.5% through tier-1 bonds, and that is a very significant amount of about Rs 1.5 lakh crore or so. SBI alone has an outstanding in tier-1 of about Rs 31,000-32,000 crore. Now, if we have to raise all this in a new arrangement, where mutual funds have to price this as a 100-year bond, the impact on the banking system is going to be significant." (Rs 100 crore = Rs 1 bn).
The rise of NFTs What Black Swan events are most likely? Elon Musk released a song on non-fungible tokens or NFTs, with an Unsustainable monetary easing: Murmurs have begun in some electronic music track. This surely warrants at least a small write up about financial circles about whether the current state of massive the hullaballoo. Recently, a bidder bought a digital image file made by a quantitative easing (so soon after the huge QE after the GFC) is digital artist called Beeple (Mike Winkelmann) for a huge US$ sustainable. The US Fed’s balance sheet has distended from a pre- 69mn…but wait…it was sold as a purely digital NFT-based work, the first crisis US$ 4.1tn to a giddy US$ 7.5tn. The BoJ’s monetary stimulus one to be sold by major auction house Christie’s. Last month was even programme (ongoing from 2013) has bloated its balance sheet to more weird...someone bought a 10-second video clip of a fallen Donald +100% of the country’s GDP. How much more money can the world Trump for US$ 6.6mn (smh). Jack Dorsey (Twitter) auctioned his first-ever take before debt-fuelled assets start collapsing on themselves? Are tweet in NFTs. high interest rates and monetary tightening just around the corner? There are the questions being thrown around. NFTs are a new type of digital assets whose originality and ownership is Massive rise in US inflation: Corresponding huge rise in inflation authenticated by blockchains. These have been used in the digital world and bond yields the world over – and a subsequent collapse of the for some time now – netizens use them to trade digital objects (art, sports markets. collectibles, patches of land in virtual worlds, cryptocurrency). NFTs have Yield-curve control: The Fed could start yield-curve-control rocketed from early 2021 pushed by the same investors who speculated measures, thereby buying more treasuries (in addition to the on cryptocurrencies. quantitative easing) – in which case the market could rise further. From 2016, Japan has already been doing yield-control, buying as
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Congress Rift: G23 not change soon. The government seems ready to subsume LPG under GST. Will it also put fuel (petrol, diesel) under GST and stop its G23 (G = Mahatma Gandhi) is a dissenting group within the dependence on this revenue stream? If consumers could get the full Congress party. benefits of a fall in global oil prices, for every USD 1/b reduction in crude G-23 leaders say they want a strong Congress rooted in Gandhi’s prices, petrol/diesel prices be Rs 0.50/litre cheaper. principles Key people include Ghulam Nabi Azad, Anand Sharma, former Just how much does the government make on petrol/diesel? Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Kapil Sibal, and The tax component on petrol and diesel is roughly around 70% and 60%. Vivek Tankha. Indirect taxes account for c.65% of India’s overall tax revenue, and direct While this has been in the works for many months, they came out in (corporate and income tax) c.35%. the open in a Kashmir rally about two weeks ago. G-23 members find themselves side-lined by the party. Recently, Demand for fuel is likely to be about 10% lower yoy in FY21. Despite this, Sandeep Dikshit criticised the Congress for not including these the centre’s income from taxes on petrol and diesel in set to rise by 82% to leaders in the star campaigners list for upcoming West Bengal and Rs 4tn in FY21. In FY22, the revenue is estimated at Rs 4.3tn, of which Assam Assembly elections. +Rs 490bn will arrive from the agriculture infrastructure development Ironically, when these leaders came out in the J&K rally, the party cess. In fact, by some estimates, the centre will earn almost Rs 2tn in FY21 had said that it would have been better if they were campaigning in and more than Rs 2tn in FY22 from the additional cess and surcharges the election-bound states instead of holding a public meeting in imposed on auto fuels last year. Jammu. To put this in perspective, in UPA’s last year, it’s government earned just a Polar Silk Road little short of Rs 1tn from fuel excise. In Modi government’s first year itself, it had earned Rs 2.42tn. The centre does not share cesses and surcharge This is a new shipping route through the Arctic spearheaded by China and with states, but the latter receive 42% of the basic excise duty. Russia and has been in the works for a while now but there is a renewed Additionally, states levy their own VAT, based on central taxes. In 1HFY21, push for this from China. The country has restated its interest in this route th states’ tax revenue from VAT on the fuels fell 18% yoy to Rs 782bn. by including it in the draft outline of its 14 five-year plan (2021-25) and in the long-range objectives to the year 2035. For now, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that there are no
plans to bring petrol, diesel, ATF, and gas under GST. With the Arctic waters more navigable for longer periods due to climate change, these countries see the opening up of a new shipping route from India is not the only country to tax fuel heavily East Asia to Europe along Russia's northern coast – called the ‘Polar Silk OPEC has revealed that OECD countries earned 49% of the revenue from a Road’ (PSR) in China and 'Northern Sea Route' (NSR) in Russia. As the litre of oil sold in 2018 in taxes (OPEC earned 31% from the crude used). north polar cap melts faster, it is seen as a viable alternative to the main UK earned the most tax at 61% while USA earned the least at 20%. Strait of Malacca and Suez Canal route, and is believed to significantly alter global supply chains and geopolitics. Electric vehicles – are we there yet? The state of spending in India and fuel The best-known electric car in the world is Tesla, and its owners have a stereotype. They are perceived to be rich (trust-fund kids or Silicon Valley If the states are not able to match the pace of central spending, the tycoons), geeky, outwardly environment conscious people. Will EVs in repercussions on the economy could be serious. The central government is India be restricted to a certain type of buyer, or will they become a banking big on capital expenditure (infrastructure spending) pulling the ‘phenomenon’ that takes the market by storm? country out of the slump. However, without the help of the states, this is near nigh impossible - India’s 28 states account for 60% of total There are three types of electric vehicles – ones that rely on batteries (no government spending on infrastructure and asset creation. However, they fuel engine, such as Tesla Model 3), plug-in hybrids (plug in charger, are limited by declining revenues and pandemic-related expenses. RBI gasoline engine will turn on when power runs out; example Audi A3 E- estimates a 3.14x multiplier on the economy for central expenditure but a Tron), and hybrid vehicles (runs simultaneously on gasoline engines and lower 2x for state expenditure. electric motor; such as Toyota Prius Hybrid).
Which brings us to the next issue. To make up for revenue shortfall, there By some estimates, India’s EV market is expected to touch Rs 500bn by is insane taxation on fuel in India. In fact, fuel ranks as among the biggest 2025. As usual, India is dreaming big. By the end of 2030, the Niti Aayog sources of revenue for the centre and states (along with alcohol) and this is wants 70% of all commercial cars, 30% of private cars, 40% buses and 80% a big reason why fuel has still been kept out of the purview of GST. If it two wheelers and three-wheeler to be electric – a tall, tall, ask. At present, comes under GST, the states and centre won’t be able to capitalise on it seems very unlikely that the ecosystem needed to support such a huge levying higher taxes while fuel prices are low. However, with petrol prices change will be built within this timeframe. For now, EVs are likely to above Rs 100, there is palpable frustration among India’s hoi polloi. remain an urban phenomenon or limited to certain public transport
segment. In 2019-20, India sold c.3,400 electric cars and 152,000 electric Fuel under GST – if not now, when? two-wheelers; EVs accounted for less than 1% of automobile sales. India ranks low in terms of ‘affordability’ of fuel, by some calculations, even below Vietnam and Pakistan. The economic and inflationary fallout of the rise in fuel prices could outweigh all stimulus measures if things do
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A big barrier to adoption is costs. The Indian consumer is extremely value Meanwhile…India seems very keen on hydrogen conscious, which is why electric scooters and e-autos are likely to do well; India recently announced a National Hydrogen Mission that will draw up a they are cheaper than their ICE counterparts. Crisil predicts that c.50% of roadmap for using hydrogen as an energy source. While it has been new three-wheelers sold in India will be electrified by 2024. Another behind the curve in EV adoption, its interest in hydrogen is curious. This is barrier is the network. While the target is 4,230 public charging stations in because the technology is incredibly nascent, especially in EVs, despite 53 cities with a million-plus population, this falls way short of what would being in the works for decades. It has literally miles to go before it matures be needed to achieve the 2030 targets. Also, charging stations will need anywhere near mass rollouts. There were just 25,000 hydrogen fuel cell reliable power supply – which is absent in most of India. It is one thing to vehicles on the road at the end of 2020 vs. 8mn electric cars. Hydrogen is run a petrol pump on a generator, quite another to run EV charging used in fuel-cell electric vehicles (Toyota’s Mirai, Honda’s Clarity, stations. Hyundai’s Nexo). The gas powers an electric motor.
Besides, there is an important ethical factor to consider – if the electricity Tesla CEO Elon Musk has called fuel-cell technology “mind-bogglingly that is going into the vehicles isn’t from a green source (like it is in Finland stupid”. Hydrogen is a fundamental element on Earth, but is not available and Norway) it sort of defeats the whole purpose, doesn’t it? So, we need standalone; it has to be separated from water using electrolysis, which is a ample charging stations – preferably powered by renewable energy and high energy process…and costly…and it is not really environment enough space because there will be a pileup of vehicles waiting to charge friendly, and it is highly flammable. in a populated country like India (remember serpentine CNG refill lines in the initial days?). The time taken to charge depends on the car’s battery 1984’d? India’s new rules to regulate online content and the charging point. A typical electric car (60kWh battery) takes about 8 hours to charge from empty to full with a 7kW charging point. Many Facebook and Twitter to swiftly erase content authorities deem electric cars can run about 100 miles with a 35 minutes 50kW rapid unlawful. charger. Social media companies to assist investigations by India’s law enforcement agencies. A Castrol study found the following ‘tipping points’ for mainstream EV Social media platforms to appoint ‘chief compliance and grievance adoption in India – year 2025, price point of Rs 2.3mn, 35-minute officers’ to handle complaints from law enforcement agencies; send charging, range of 400km on a single charge. monthly compliance reports to the government. Social media messaging sites must also disclose to the government Government’s moves: the original source of any “mischievous information.” The GST on EVs is currently at a lowered 5%. Streaming platforms like Netflix and Amazon Prime –have to set a 2015: Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and the EV “classification rating” to describe the content on their platforms. (FAME) plan; Rs 9bn commitment to subsidies from electric tricycles Access control mechanisms; offensive impact of a film on matters of to buses. caste, race, gender, religion, disability, or sexuality; content also has 2019: Rs 100bn plan to encourage EV purchases, build charging to be classified according to context, theme, tone and impact, and infrastructure. target audience. Challenging themes include drug misuse, violence, paedophilia, sex, racial or communal hatred – according to the Studies have shown that rebates or incentives are a major motivator to government. shift to electric vehicles. Vehicles currently available promise to run 150- The government is ‘deliberating’ extending existing legislation such 300km on a single charge. Next generation batteries are said to be as the Cable Table Television Networks Regulation Act, Press Council lithium iron, not lithium ion. Lab research shows that these will cut costs, Act, and ‘other relevant laws’ to govern online content. enhance range (+600km), and be more durable (last 1mn miles). Three-tier self-regulation system to be put in place to ensure compliance with the code. Some upcoming EVs in India Existing Price Upcoming Price Tata Nexon EV Rs 1.4mn Maruti Wagon R Rs 0.8mn MG ZS EV Rs 2.0mn Hyundai Kona Rs 2.4mn
Tata Tigor EV Rs 1.0mn Tata Altroz Rs 1.4mn Hyundai Kona Electric Rs 2.4mn Tesla Model 3 Rs 6.0mn Mahindra e2o Plus Rs 0.8mn Mahindra eKUV100 Rs 0.9mn
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News round-up of the month – by Roshan Sony
In a significant development, both India and China considers new actions to lift flagging F e b r u a r y ( 1 5 - 28) Pakistan agree to “mutually beneficial and birth-rate. sustainable peace” along the borders from the Japan formally approves its first Covid-19 INDIA midnight of February 24/25, 2021. vaccine. Tesla to start State government bond rate soars to 11-month Joe Biden would not be okay if the Taliban making high of 7.19% ruled Afghanistan – says the White House. electric P-notes investment slips to Rs 850bn Jan-end. Pakistan to remain on the FATF grey list till vehicles in Passenger vehicle sales in up 18% in Feb: June. India. SIAM. Report says +6,500 migrant workers have died LPG prices, during Qatar's World Cup prep. fuel prices hiked. INTERNATIONAL President Biden ordered an airstrike in eastern Jan sees a 50% spike in jobs over Dec. Bipartisan support grows for Capitol riot Syria. Ahead of elections, West Bengal chief minister inquiry after Trump acquittal. Alexei Navalny Mamata Banerjee launches ambitious Deadly winter storm grips Central US, Texas, sent to subsidised meal scheme. and US southern states; no power, many die. ‘notorious’ Lodha Developers files for Rs 25bn IPO. US Retail sales jump 5.3%, sharpest advance in penal colony. Chinese troops start withdrawing from the seven months. UN human Pangong Tso area. US Formally re-joins the Paris Agreement, 107 rights office says many protesters killed in Congress sweeps days after it left the climate accord. Myanmar demonstrations. Punjab US Fed Reserve Oil surges past US$ 65 on Texas freeze. Municipal polls. Chair Jerome Reuters report Powell reaffirms M a r c h (1- 15) says Amazon interest rates
favoured big would stay low sellers on its India platform, and used them to amid rising INDIA manoeuvre around rules meant to protect the inflation. GDP up 0.4% yoy in October-December; country’s small retailers from getting crushed Ebola breakout in Africa. construction and financial, real estate, and by e-commerce giants. Marine organisms attached to a boulder on the professional services up 6.2%/6.6%. Union Cabinet approves Rs 122bn Production sea floor 900 metres under the Antarctic ice 4G spectrum auction results: Attract bids worth Linked Incentive scheme for domestic shelf accidentally discovered. Rs 778bn, up 18% vs. 2016 auctions. Jio manufacturing of telecom and networking Reports say North Korea 'tried to hack' Pfizer emerges the biggest buyer. products. for vaccine info. Railways registers higher cumulative freight S&P says India to be among fastest-growing Bitcoin vaults above US$ 50,000 mid-Feb. loading until February 28 than last year. emerging markets in FY22. Facebook blocks Australian users from viewing BJP sweeps Gujarat local body elections. Food grain production hits record high. or sharing news. Later, it ends a one-week CPI inflation surges to 5.03% in Feb; IIP E. Sreedharan, the Delhi Metro Man joins the blackout of Australian news on its platform and recedes by 1.6% in Jan. BJP party in Kerala. signs content deals with three local publishers. Exports drop 0.25% in Feb after rising for two Third Quad ministerial meeting to discuss Biden administration says it's ready for nuclear months, preliminary data shows. regional, global issues; India’s S. Jaishankar talks with Iran. India's crude steel output grows 7.6% to 10 MT joins his counterparts from the US, Japan and Nasa's Perseverance rover lands on Mars. in January. Australia to discuss cooperation in the Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala Ahead of WB elections, backdrop of growing Chinese assertiveness. becomes the first ED summons TMC Congress Puducherry govt falls. woman and the first spokesperson Kunal Govt puts 'Code of ethics' for digital media, African to be appointed Ghosh in connection publishers, OTT. Director-General of the with the Sarada scam. LPG rate hiked by Rs 25 per cylinder. WTO. RIL to cover Covid-19 +60, +45-plus begin to get Covid-19 vaccine Vaccination campaigns vaccination cost of staff. from March 1. begin in earnest in Malaysia, Australia, etc. Sugar output jumps 20% in Oct-Feb. 25 Feb: BSE, NSE extend trading hours after Nigeriens vote in a runoff to select a new India's foreign exchange reserves exceed th the NSE faces technical glitches. president, in what is considered to be the Russia's; 4 biggest in the world now. China returns as top India trade partner. nation's first potential peaceful transition of MFs withdraw Rs 163bn from equities in Feb th Centre plans to permit sale of 50% coal from power since gaining independence in 1960. on profit booking; 8 month of outflow. captive blocks Myanmar update: Protest continue. Prices of LED TVs Moody's expects 7% contraction this fiscal. Data from the Health Ministry of Israel shows are set to rise Onion, pulses, edible oil prices surge in that COVID-19 vaccines are 99.2% effective further from April February. against serious illness, reduce mortality by as the cost of Carlyle sole bidder to acquire Mphasis from 95.8% and decrease the chance of open-cell panels Blackstone. hospitalization by 98.9%. has gone up in the UK court rules that Nirav Modi can be Iran says it is restricting the access of global markets by up to 35% in the past one extradited to India. international inspectors to its nuclear month. In a prestigious event, ISRO launches Brazilian installations. Covaxin safe, induces immune response with satellite from Sriharikota. no severe effects: Lancet. 17 March 2021 | Vol-3, Issue-3 | Page - 8 Road Less Travelled | MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
Courts in five countries, including the US and China’s legislature votes to curb Hong Kong Facebook to pay News Corp for content in the UK, have given recognition to an residents' voting power. Allows it to add more Australia. arbitration award that asked India to return seats to committee that elects HK’s leader. US$ 1.4bn to Cairn Energy — a step that now Neera Tanden’s nomination withdrawn. Source: Various media publications opens the possibility of the British firm seizing China sets 2021 GDP growth target at more Indian assets in those countries if New Delhi than 6%. Key indicators does not pay. Two dozen scientists published an open letter Sensex Flat US becomes India's second biggest oil calling for a new investigation into the origins supplier. of COVID-19 Gold Falling Myanmar protests and violence (including Rupee Flat INTERNATIONAL killing of protestors) continues. Oil (Brent) Rising US$ 1.9bn US Fed’s Jerome Powell repeats his pledge to 10-year G-Sec Yield Rising keep credit loose and flowing until Americans COVID-19 bill Retail inflation (Feb 2021, mom) Rising goes ahead. are back to work. India Producer Price Index Rising It will mean Two-day Federal Reserve meeting (March 15- US$ 1,400 17) crucial due to rising 10-year bond yields, Bank lending rate (Feb 2021) Steady direct even as markets expect it to maintain 0.25% Loan growth (Feb 2021, mom) Rising payments to rate and continue purchasing treasury RBI balance sheet (Jan, mom) Rising Americans making under US$75K. Child tax securities and mortgage-backed debt. Current account deficit (Q3 2020) Surplus credit up to US$ 3,600 + US$ 1,400 for adult Rising yields 'a world away' from impacting IIP (Jan 2021, yoy) Falling dependents + a US$ 300 weekly federal sovereign ratings says S&P Global. unemployment bonus. The first US$ 10,200 is Bitcoin rises 6.6% to $61,074 Manuf. PMI (Feb 2021, mom) Flat tax-free for the unemployment. Paris-based OECD ups global GDP forecast to Services PMI (Feb 2021, mom) Rising Janet Yellen says 5.6% (+1.4 percentage points) based on Forex reserves (5 Mar) Falling higher treasury vaccines and huge US stimulus. Gold reserves (Q4 2020) Rising
yields signal President Joe Biden sets goal of July 4th to Exports (Feb, mom) Rising recovery, not 'mark Independence' from coronavirus. Imports (Feb, mom) Falling inflation. Factory China sets 2021 GDP growth target at more activity scales 3- than 6%. Trade deficit (Feb, mom) Falling year high, price US designates five Chinese companies as Car production (Jan, mom) Falling pressures security threats. Car sales (Jan, mom) Flat building. 10-year Sri Lanka to ban burqa, shut many Islamic Aluminium price (30-day) Rising Treasuries repo schools. Aluminium stock (30-day, LME) Rising borrowing rate goes negative, indicating Moody's Investors Service says Covid-19 credit Copper price (30-day) Rising stress. downturn will be short-lived, but most US issues sanctions in response to the economies will not return to pre-pandemic Copper stock (30-day, LME) Rising poisoning and arrest of Russian opposition activity levels until 2022. Zinc (30-day) Flat leader Alexei Navalny. Switzerland approves a 'burqa ban.' Zinc stock (30-day, LME) Falling
17 March 2021 | Vol-2, Issue-2 | Page - 9 Road Less Travelled | MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
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17 March 2021 | Vol-2, Issue-2 | Page - 10 Road Less Travelled | MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
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