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Sex Imbalances at Birth in Armenia

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Sex Imbalances at Birth in Armenia Sex imbalances at birth in Armenia Demographic evidence and analysis Christophe Z. Guilmoto IRD/CEPED Paris YEREVAN 2013 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would first like to thank all of my UNFPA colleagues in Yerevan for the success of this mission and their contribution to the preparation of this report. Thanks are due to Garik Hayrapetyan, Aida Ghazaryan, Mher Manukyan, Anna Barfyan, Tatevik Vardanyan, Hermine Grigoryan, Arthur Ishkhanyan and Alexan- der Babayan for their help and assistance. Artak Aleksanyan was kind enough to share additional materi- als with me. I especially need to single out Vahe Gyulkhasyan for his many efforts in helping me to discover all of the facets of Armenian society and demography and to conduct this research. I am also grateful to Prof. Razmik Abrahamyan for his interest in this work and his support. This report is based on computations conducted on original datasets communicated to me by the National Statistical Service. I have greatly benefited from their support and collaboration in the course of this study and I would, in particular, like to express my gratitude to Karine Kuyumjyan and Armine Arushanyan. I have also received support, advice and documentation from several scholars and professionals whom I had the privilege to meet during my visit in June: Vahan Asatryan, Suren Poghosyan, Vanik Babajan- yan, Vardan Marukyan, Astghik Injeyan, Tamara Hovnatanyan, Vladimir Osipov, Aghasi Tadevosyan, and Mkhitar Gabrielyan. My thanks go to them for sharing their vast knowledge on the gender and population situation in the country. I also learnt many things on the spread of new reproductive technology during meetings with doctors from the Republican Institute of Reproductive Health, Perinatology, Obstetrics and Gynecology in Yerevan. While in Yerevan, I also benef ited from meetings with Mery Khachikyan, D. Westhoff, Henriette Ahrens and Gayane Avagyan. Laura Rahm and Lusine Gevorkian provided additional help. 2 TABLES OF CONTENTS FOREWORD ....................................................................................... 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................ 7 CHAPTER 1 Sex Selection and the regional context ............................................ 11 1.1 Prenatal sex selection in the world: characteristics and trends ........................... 12 1.1.1 Skewed sex ratios at birth observed from Asia to America ............................. 13 1.1.2 Birth masculinity in Eastern Europe ................................................................. 14 1.1.3 Variations in sex ratio at birth across social groups .......................................... 15 1.2 The factors behind prenatal sex selection ........................................................... 16 1.3 Demographic situation in Armenia ..................................................................... 18 1.3.1 Population distribution and growth ................................................................. 18 1.3.2 Fertility decline and abortion ........................................................................... 20 CHAPTER 2 Main research questions and methodology ......................................22 2.1 Research questions ............................................................................................. 22 2.2 Sources and methodology ................................................................................... 23 2.2.1 The 2001 census dataset .................................................................................. 23 2.2.2 Birth registration data ...................................................................................... 25 2.2.3 Other documentary and survey sources ........................................................... 26 CHAPTER 3 Gender and sex preferences .............................................................28 3.1 Gender in Armenia .............................................................................................. 28 3.2 Sex differentials in infant and child mortality ...................................................... 30 3.3 Gender preference in surveys ............................................................................. 32 3.4 Gender preference and fertility behaviour measured during the census .............. 33 3.4.1 Son preference and family composition ........................................................... 34 3.4.2 Regional and socioeconomic characteristics of son preference ...................... 35 CHAPTER 4 Birth masculinity and prenatal sex selection ....................................39 4.1 Trends in the sex ratio at birth ............................................................................ 39 3 4.1.1 Annual series from the birth registration data ................................................. 39 4.1.2 The increase in birth masculinity as seen from the 2001 census data .............. 40 4.2 Differentials in sex ratio at birth during the late 1990s ........................................ 43 4.2.1 Parity and birth masculinity ............................................................................. 44 4.2.2 Social and economic differentials .................................................................... 46 4.2.3 A synthetic analysis of the determinants of higher birth masculinity .............. 49 4.3 The sex ratio at birth in 2001-2010 ....................................................................... 51 4.3.1 Trends in sex ratio at birth and parity .............................................................. 51 4.3.2 Regional differentials ....................................................................................... 53 4.3.3 Other demographic and socioeconomic differentials ...................................... 56 4.4 The mechanisms of sex imbalances ...................................................................... 60 CHAPTER 5 Demographic masculinization in the next decades ..........................63 5.1 Population projections under different SRB scenarios .......................................... 63 5.2 Population structures in 2010-2060 ..................................................................... 64 5.3 Impact on age and sex structures ......................................................................... 67 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................... 71 REFERENCES .......................................................................... 75 GLOSSARY ............................................................................ 77 TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: The three preconditions of prenatal sex selection ................................................... 17 Figure 2: Armenian provinces (marzes) .................................................................................... 19 Figure 3: Sex ratio at birth, vital statistics, 1980-2010 ............................................................. 39 Figure 4: Child sex ratio and sex ratio at birth, de facto 2001 census population after mortality correction and vital statistics, 1990-2001 ........................................ 41 Figure 5: Size of birth cohorts, 2001 census and vital statistics, 1990-2001 ............................ 42 Figure 6: Sex ratio of children by year of birth, gender composition and parity, 1992-2001 ... 43 Figure 7: Sex ratio of children by rank in the family (parity) and year of birth, reconstructed child population, 1992-2001 ............................................................. 45 Figure 8: Sex ratio at birth by marz and parity, vital statistics, 2001-2010............................... 54 Figure 9: Births and sex ratio at birth by marz, vital statistics, 2001-10 ................................... 55 Figure 10: Sex ratio at birth by age of parents, vital statistics, 2001-2010 ............................... 57 Figure 11: Sex ratio at birth by ethnicity of the mother, vital statistics, 2001-2010 ................. 57 Figure 12: Sex ratio at birth by education level of parents, vital statistics, 2001-2010 ............ 58 Figure 13: Population sex ratio according to three demographic scenarios, Armenia, 2010-2060 ............................................................................................... 65 4 Figure 14: Annual number of female births according to two SRB scenarios, Armenia, 2010-2060 ............................................................................................... 66 Figure 15: Age distribution of the projected female population in 2060 according to two SRB scenarios, Armenia ............................................................................... 67 Figure 16: Sex ratio of adults aged 20-39 years according to three demographic scenarios, Armenia, 2010-2060............................................................................... 68 Figure 17: Gender gap among the population aged 20-39 years according to three demographic scenarios, Armenia, 2010-2060 ........................................................ 69 TABLE OF TABLES Table 1: Sex ratio at birth in various countries, 2007-2011 ...................................................... 13 Table 2: Sex ratio at birth in Armenia at different periods, 2010 DHS survey ......................... 27 Table 3: Infant and child mortality by sex, recent surveys in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia ............................................................................................. 31 Table 4: Parity progression ratio by parity and presence of a previous son, 2001 census ....... 34 Table 5: Parity
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