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Public Debt, High Inflation and Economic Depression: a Survival Analysis Approach Minjie Guo
CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by Scholar Commons - Institutional Repository of the University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Scholar Commons Theses and Dissertations Spring 2019 Public Debt, High Inflation and Economic Depression: A Survival Analysis Approach Minjie Guo Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/etd Part of the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Guo, M.(2019). Public Debt, High Inflation and Economic Depression: A Survival Analysis Approach. (Doctoral dissertation). Retrieved from https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/etd/5279 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you by Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Public Debt, High Inflation and Economic Depression: A Survival Analysis Approach by Minjie Guo Bachelor of Arts Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, 2007 Master of Arts University of Texas at Arlington, 2011 Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Darla Moore School of Business University of South Carolina 2019 Accepted by: John McDermott, Major Professor Janice Bass, Committee Member William Hauk, Committee Member Warren Weber, Committee Member Cheryl L. Addy, Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School c Copyright by Minjie Guo, 2019 All Rights Reserved. ii Dedication To my parents and grandparents. iii Acknowledgments I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. John McDermott for his support during my Ph.D study. His guidance and encouragement during the dissertation process were invaluable. -
A Model of Bimetallism
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department A Model of Bimetallism François R. Velde and Warren E. Weber Working Paper 588 August 1998 ABSTRACT Bimetallism has been the subject of considerable debate: Was it a viable monetary system? Was it a de- sirable system? In our model, the (exogenous and stochastic) amount of each metal can be split between monetary uses to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint, and nonmonetary uses in which the stock of un- coined metal yields utility. The ratio of the monies in the cash-in-advance constraint is endogenous. Bi- metallism is feasible: we find a continuum of steady states (in the certainty case) indexed by the constant exchange rate of the monies; we also prove existence for a range of fixed exchange rates in the stochastic version. Bimetallism does not appear desirable on a welfare basis: among steady states, we prove that welfare under monometallism is higher than under any bimetallic equilibrium. We compute welfare and the variance of the price level under a variety of regimes (bimetallism, monometallism with and without trade money) and find that bimetallism can significantly stabilize the price level, depending on the covari- ance between the shocks to the supplies of metals. Keywords: bimetallism, monometallism, double standard, commodity money *Velde, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Weber, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and University of Minne- sota. We thank without implicating Marc Flandreau, Ed Green, Angela Redish, and Tom Sargent. The views ex- pressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the Fed- eral Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, or the Federal Reserve System. -
“To Establish a More Effective Supervision of Banking:” How the Birth of the Fed Altered Bank Supervision
“To Establish a More Effective Supervision of Banking:” How the Birth of the Fed Altered Bank Supervision Abstract Although bank supervision under the National Banking System exercised a light hand and panics were frequent, the cost of bank failures was minimal. Double liability induced shareholders to carefully monitor bank managers and voluntarily liquidate banks early if they appeared to be in trouble. Inducing more disclosure, marking assets to market, and ensuring prompt closure of insolvent national banks, the Comptroller of the Currency reinforced market discipline. The arrival of the Federal Reserve weakened this regime. Monetary policy decisions conflicted with the goal of financial stability and created moral hazard. The appearance of the Fed as an additional supervisor led to more “competition in laxity” among regulators and “regulatory arbitrage” by banks. When the Great Depression hit, policy-induced deflation and asset price volatility were misdiagnosed as failures of competition and market valuation. In response, the New Deal shifted to a regime of discretion-based supervision with forbearance. 100th Anniversary of the Jekyll Island Conference Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Eugene N. White Rutgers University and NBER Department of Economics New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA Phone: 732-932-7363 Fax: 732-932-7416 [email protected] October 2010 “An Act to provide for the establishment of Federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes.”—the title of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 [emphasis added] While the formation and development of the Federal Reserve has been intensively studied, histories of the Fed, from Milton Friedman and Anna J. -
Virtual Currencies in the Eurosystem: Challenges Ahead
STUDY Requested by the ECON committee Virtual currencies in the Eurosystem: challenges ahead Monetary Dialogue July 2018 Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies Authors: Rosa María LASTRA, Jason Grant ALLEN Directorate-General for Internal Policies EN PE 619.020 – July 2018 Virtual currencies in the Eurosystem: challenges ahead Monetary Dialogue July 2018 Abstract Speculation on Bitcoin, the evolution of money in the digital age, and the underlying blockchain technology are attracting growing interest. In the context of the Eurosystem, this briefing paper analyses the legal nature of privately issued virtual currencies (VCs), the implications of VCs for central bank’s monetary policy and monopoly of note issue, and the risks for the financial system at large. The paper also considers some of the proposals concerning central bank issued virtual currencies. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. This document was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. AUTHORS Rosa María LASTRA, Centre for Commercial Law Studies, Queen Mary University of London Jason Grant ALLEN, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin Centre for British Studies, University of New South Wales Centre for Law Markets and Regulation ADMINISTRATOR RESPONSIBLE Dario PATERNOSTER EDITORIAL ASSISTANT Janetta CUJKOVA LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN ABOUT THE EDITOR Policy departments provide in-house and external expertise to support EP committees -
The Case for a Limited Central Bank Yeareen
The case for a Limited Central Bank Yun The Case for a Limited Central Bank Yeareen Yun [email protected] MOUNT HOLYOKE COLLEGE Volume 5, Number 1 Journal for Global Business and Community http://jgbc.fiu.edu Consortium for Undergraduate International Business Education The case for a Limited Central Bank Yun In his book, The Alchemists, Neil Irwin (2013) follows the history of the recent financial crisis of 2007, examining the difficult decisions made and the bold actions carried out by three central bankers: Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, Mervyn King of the Bank of England, and Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank (ECB). Irwin not only justifies the unconventional methods such as quantitative easing, that was used by these three men, but applauds them, for “peace and prosperity… require people like Bernanke, King, and Trichet to safeguard them, often by doing things that are widely unpopular” (p.388). He accepts the expanding role of the central banks as a necessary measure given the changing times. He believes “central banks [should not] let precedent or politics stop them from doing what they need to do to keep their economies healthy” at all costs even, if it means bailing out investment banks, telling Parliament how to manage its books, and propping up financially troubled economies (p.390). Irwin believes we shouldn’t expect perfection, but rather progress, and trust intelligent men to handle economic crises and manage the economies in ways that they best see fit because they are so “technically complex that we can’t put them to a vote” (p.390). -
Final Years of the Silver Standard in Mexico: Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity with the United States
Munich Personal RePEc Archive Final Years of the Silver Standard in Mexico: Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity with The United States Bojanic, Antonio N. 2 May 2011 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45535/ MPRA Paper No. 45535, posted 27 Mar 2013 02:12 UTC final years of the silver standard in mexico: evidence of purchasing power parity with the united states Antonio N. Bojanic* Professor of Economics / CENTRUM – Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú Urbanización – Los Alamos de Monterrico – Surco, Perú ABSTRACT RESUMO This paper focuses on the use of silver as Este artigo enfoca o uso da prata como padrão a monetary standard in Mexico during monetário no México, durante aproximada- approximately the last three decades of the mente as três últimas décadas do século XIX nineteenth century and the first decade of e primeira década do século XX. Durante the twentieth century. During this period, esse período, vários eventos ocorreram no several events occurred in the market for mercado de prata, que afetaram os países silver that affected those countries attached atrelados a este metal. Estes eventos causa- to this metal. These events caused some ram alguns destes países a abandonar a prata of these countries to abandon silver for para o bem e adotar outros tipos de regime good and adopt other types of monetary monetário. México e alguns outros, preferiu arrangements. Mexico and a few others ficar com ele. As razões desta decisão são chose to stay with it.The reasons behind this analisados. Além disso prova, que apoia a decision are analyzed. Additionally, evidence teoria da paridade do poder de compra entre that supports the theory of purchasing power o México e os Estados Unidos são também parity between Mexico and the United States apresentados e analisados. -
Deflation: a Business Perspective
Deflation: a business perspective Prepared by the Corporate Economists Advisory Group Introduction Early in 2003, ICC's Corporate Economists Advisory Group discussed the risk of deflation in some of the world's major economies, and possible consequences for business. The fear was that historically low levels of inflation and faltering economic growth could lead to deflation - a persistent decline in the general level of prices - which in turn could trigger economic depression, with widespread company and bank failures, a collapse in world trade, mass unemployment and years of shrinking economic activity. While the risk of deflation is now remote in most countries - given the increasingly unambiguous signs of global economic recovery - its potential costs are very high and would directly affect companies. This issues paper was developed to help companies better understand the phenomenon of deflation, and to give them practical guidance on possible measures to take if and when the threat of deflation turns into reality on a future occasion. What is deflation? Deflation is defined as a sustained fall in an aggregate measure of prices (such as the consumer price index). By this definition, changes in prices in one economic sector or falling prices over short periods (e.g., one or two quarters) do not qualify as deflation. Dec lining prices can be driven by an increase in supply due to technological innovation and rapid productivity gains. These supply-induced shocks are usually not problematic and can even be accompanied by robust growth, as experienced by China. A fall in prices led by a drop in demand - due to a severe economic cycle, tight economic policies or a demand-side shock - or by persistent excess capacity can be much more harmful, and is more likely to lead to persistent deflation. -
This Is the Heritage Society After All – to 1893, and the Shape of This
1 IRVING HERITAGE SOCIETY PRESENTATION By Maura Gast, Irving CVB October 2010 For tonight’s program, and because this is the Irving Heritage Society, after all, I thought I’d take a departure from my usual routine (which probably everyone in this room has heard too many times) and talk a little bit about the role the CVB plays in an historical context instead. I’m hopeful that as champions of heritage and history in general, that you’ll indulge me on this path tonight, and that you’ll see it all come back home to Irving by the time I’m done. Because there were really three key factors that led to the convention industry as we know it today and to our profession. And they are factors that, coupled with some amazing similarities to what’s going on in our world today, are worth paying attention to. How We as CVBs Came to Be • The Industrial Revolution – And the creation of manufacturing organizations • The Railroad Revolution • The Panic of 1893 One was the industrial revolution and its associated growth of large manufacturing organizations caused by the many technological innovations of that age. The second was the growth of the railroad, and ultimately the Highway system here in the US. And the third was the Panic of 1893. The Concept of “Associations” 2 The idea of “associations” has historically been an American concept – this idea of like‐minded people wanting to gather together in what came to be known as conventions. And when you think about it, there have been meetings and conventions of some kind taking place since recorded time. -
The New Frontier: a History of Economic Crisis and Recovery from 1918 to COVID-19
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICE The New Frontier: A History of Economic Crisis and Recovery from 1918 to COVID-19 June 2020 Months on from the initial outbreak, the world remains in the grip of the novel coronavirus AUTHORED BY pandemic. From shuttered storefronts to school closures and government-enforced shutdowns, the impact on daily life worldwide has been extreme, and the global economy Ehiwario Efeyini is still operating well below capacity. The scale of the crisis has been unparalleled in living Director and Senior Market memory. But a look at the past 100 years shows several periods of societal, economic, Strategy Analyst geopolitical and financial crisis that would eventually give way to new patterns of activity, innovation, policy support and cooperation that were more constructive for households, companies and investors. The early 20th century included a world war and a global flu pandemic. The 1930s saw an economic depression and military conflict on an even larger scale. The 1970s was a period of economic stagnation and high inflation. And the first decade of the new millennium brought the collapse of a stock market bubble, the rise of global terrorism and a financial crash. Crucially, each of these historical crisis periods was ultimately succeeded by an economic revival, a more favorable investment environment and sustained price gains for equity markets (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: Equity Markets and Historical Periods of Crisis and Recovery1 23 Dow Jones Industrial Index 9/11 2001 2008–2009 Level (log scale) Crisis Periods Recovery Periods attacks Global COVID-19 Financial Crisis 100000 pandemic 2000 1989 Dot-com peak 1974–1981 Fall of Double-digit Berlin Wall 10000 U.S. -
JP Morgan and the Money Trust
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS ECONOMIC EDUCATION The Panic of 1907: J.P. Morgan and the Money Trust Lesson Author Mary Fuchs Standards and Benchmarks (see page 47) Lesson Description The Panic of 1907 was a financial crisis set off by a series of bad banking decisions and a frenzy of withdrawals caused by public distrust of the banking system. J.P. Morgan, along with other wealthy Wall Street bankers, loaned their own funds to save the coun- try from a severe financial crisis. But what happens when a single man, or small group of men, have the power to control the finances of a country? In this lesson, students will learn about the Panic of 1907 and the measures Morgan used to finance and save the major banks and trust companies. Students will also practice close reading to analyze texts from the Pujo hearings, newspapers, and reactionary articles to develop an evidence- based argument about whether or not a money trust—a Morgan-led cartel—existed. Grade Level 10-12 Concepts Bank run Bank panic Cartel Central bank Liquidity Money trust Monopoly Sherman Antitrust Act Trust ©2015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Permission is granted to reprint or photocopy this lesson in its entirety for educational purposes, provided the user credits the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, www.stlouisfed.org/education. 1 Lesson Plan The Panic of 1907: J.P. Morgan and the Money Trust Time Required 100-120 minutes Compelling Question What did J.P. Morgan have to do with the founding of the Federal Reserve? Objectives Students will • define bank run, bank panic, monopoly, central bank, cartel, and liquidity; • explain the Panic of 1907 and the events leading up to the panic; • analyze the Sherman Antitrust Act; • explain how monopolies worked in the early 20th-century banking industry; • develop an evidence-based argument about whether or not a money trust—a Morgan-led cartel—existed • explain how J.P. -
The Rising Thunder El Nino and Stock Markets
THE RISING THUNDER EL NINO AND STOCK MARKETS: By Tristan Caswell A Project Presented to The Faculty of Humboldt State University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Business Administration Committee Membership Dr. Michelle Lane, Ph.D, Committee Chair Dr. Carol Telesky, Ph.D Committee Member Dr. David Sleeth-Kepler, Ph.D Graduate Coordinator July 2015 Abstract THE RISING THUNDER EL NINO AND STOCK MARKETS: Tristan Caswell Every year, new theories are generated that seek to describe changes in the pricing of equities on the stock market and changes in economic conditions worldwide. There are currently theories that address the market value of stocks in relation to the underlying performance of their financial assets, known as bottom up investing, or value investing. There are also theories that intend to link the performance of stocks to economic factors such as changes in Gross Domestic Product, changes in imports and exports, and changes in Consumer price index as well as other factors, known as top down investing. Much of the current thinking explains much of the current movements in financial markets and economies worldwide but no theory exists that explains all of the movements in financial markets. This paper intends to propose the postulation that some of the unexplained movements in financial markets may be perpetuated by a consistently occurring weather phenomenon, known as El Nino. This paper intends to provide a literature review, documenting currently known trends of the occurrence of El Nino coinciding with the occurrence of a disturbance in the worldwide financial markets and economies, as well as to conduct a statistical analysis to explore whether there are any statistical relationships between the occurrence of El Nino and the occurrence of a disturbance in the worldwide financial markets and economies. -
You Can Download November's Newsletter Here
TRADING JUSTICE November Newsletter Vol. 14 It’s All The Fugazi Part II: The Man Trading Justice Newsletter TABLES OF CONTENTS Some men just want to watch the world burn 4. B.F., A.F. 5. From Fugazi to Real Value: Alchemy 13. Trading Justice Newsletter – Give up. Just quit. Because in this life, you can’t win. Yeah, you can try. But in the end, you’re just going to lose, big time. Becau- se the world is run by The Man. – Who? – The Man. Oh, you don’t know The Man? He’s everywhere. In the White House, down the hall… Miss Mullins, she is The Man! (children are in shock) —SCHOOL OF ROCK (2003)— In the October 2018 edition of the Trading Justice pure or awesome because The Man is just going newsletter, we’ve talked about hyperinflation, which to call them a fat washed up loser and crush their consists of a steep devaluation of a country’s cur- souls. They can’t even stick it to the man anymore, rency, causing its citizens to lose confidence in it. In because the rock ‘n roll was also ruined by The a hyperinflationary environment, we experience a Man when he created this little thing called MTV. rapid and continuing increase in the cost of goods, Just give up. and also in the supply of money creating a vicious circle, requiring ever-growing amounts of new mo- In this edition, we’re back in the realms of the Fu- ney creation to fund government deficits. gazi to explore the root of all this evil: The Man.