Battleground States Poll - September 11, 2006

September 11, 2006 Gubernatorial Races

Republicans took the lead in two hotly contested races but Democrats remain poised for big gubernatorial gains. Among battleground states included in the latest Zogby Interactive poll, Democratic candidates were ahead in 12 races, while Republicans led in six and one race yielded mixed results. In Zogby's August poll, Democrats led 14 states, Republicans four and one race was mixed. Zogby, in cooperation with The Wall Street Journal Online, is conducting a series of online polls that track 19 gubernatorial and 18 Senate races through Election Day. Eight of the governors' races in the latest poll -- conducted Aug. 29-Sept. 5 -- were within the polls' margins of error, which ranged from 2.9 to 4.3 percentage points per candidate. Multiple potential matchups are polled in many states. When matchups yield tied results or different parties lead in different matchups, a state is considered to have "mixed" results. Taking into account governorships that aren't up for re-election and those that weren't included in the battleground polling because the incumbent party is widely expected to remain in power, the Democrats would hold 27 governorships and Republicans 22, if the results on Election Day match the latest polling. That breakdown in power in the nation's governorships would mark a reversal from the current balance of power. Today, Republicans hold 28 governorships and Democrats 22. In Iowa, Republican Jim Nussle recaptured his slim lead over Chet Culver in their race to succeed Democratic Governor Tom Vilsack. Mr. Culver had edged to a lead in August after trailing Mr. Nussle throughout the year. But the contest has been tight. Neither candidate has had a lead this year that was greater than the polls' margin of error. Nevada's Republican nominee Jim Gibbons climbed back into the lead over Dina Tutus. She had edged to a lead after winning the Democratic primary in August. Arnold Schwarzenegger held onto his come-from- behind lead in California over Democratic challenger Phil Angelides. After trailing for months, Mr. Schwarzenegger pulled even with and then topped Mr. Angelides late this spring and into the summer. Still, neither candidate has mustered a lead greater than the poll's margin of error. In Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Ed Rendell pulled to his widest lead this year over Republican Lynn Swann, a former Pittsburgh Steeler wide receiver. But in Texas, Republican incumbent Rick Perry continued to face a competitive race. Mr. Perry, who had a 20- percentage point lead early this year, was ahead of Democrat Chris Bell by five percentage points in a race that includes several strong third- party candidates, including author and musician Kinky Friedman and Libertarian candidate James Werner.

GUBERNATORIAL: ARIZONA

Democratic incumbent Janet Napolitano continues to hold a double-digit lead over her potential GOP rivals -- Don Goldwater, nephew of onetime presidential candidate Barry Goldwater, whose populist campaign has called for a crackdown on illegal immigration, and Len Munsil, a social conservative. Zogby sees a Napolitano-Munsil battle as likely as a Napolitano-Goldwater showdown. The primary is Sept. 12.

GUBERNATORIAL: CALIFORNIA

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has held onto his come- from-behind lead. Challenger Phil Angelides is the Democratic nominee in a blue state, but sorely lacks the governor's star power. In diverse California, Schwarzenegger's strength comes from two factors, Zogby finds: He holds a six-point lead among white voters and a tenuous one-point lead among the state's growing Hispanic electorate. Also, Green Party candidate Peter Camejo is drawing more votes away from Angelides than Libertarian Art Olivier is pulling from Schwarzenegger. In the back and forth race this year, neither candidate has mustered a lead greater than the poll's margin of error. GUBERNATORIAL: COLORADO

Rep. Bob Beauprez, a Republican and favorite of the White House, gave up more ground to Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter in the latest Zogby poll. The poll also finds that Ritter holds a big lead among voters under 50; among 50- to 64-year-olds, Beauprez runs even, and the Republican holds a strong lead among seniors. Colorado is unusual: Despite a GOP registration edge, the state has been kind to Democrats in recent elections. Ritter is seen as a moderate, a Catholic who opposes abortion but has said he would always support a woman's right to choose.

GUBERNATORIAL: FLORIDA

Charlie Crist, the GOP attorney general, has a big lead over his challenger, Congressman Jim Davis in the race to fill the seat that will be vacated by Republican Gov. Jeb Bush. Florida's primary election was held while the latest poll was in the field. Zogby finds that Crist holds a comfortable lead with both sexes -- though he is stronger among male voters -- and has backing in every part of the state, leading from big cities to rural areas. GUBERNATORIAL: GEORGIA

Sonny Perdue, the incumbent Republican governor, continues to hold a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger Mark Taylor, the lieutenant governor of Georgia. Zogby notes that by Libertarian Garrett Hayes polls relatively strongly and could help siphon votes away from Perdue -- but isn't currently cutting into his lead too severely. Perdue's 2002 election was the crowning achievement of the transformation of the state that once elected Jimmy Carter into a GOP bastion.

GUBERNATORIAL: ILLINOIS

Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, once seen as vulnerable, has expanded his lead into double digits. The moderate Republican nominee, State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka has failed to poll well among traditional Republican bases. Zogby notes Topinka trails among married voters, albeit narrowly. She holds a narrow lead among men, but gets thrashed among women, trailing by a 29- point margin. GUBERNATORIAL: IOWA

GOP Congressman Jim Nussle has recaptured his slim lead over Democratic Secretary of State Chet Culver, in their tight race to succeed Democratic Governor Tom Vilsack -- one of the most competitive in the nation. Culver has taken a pro-choice position, and it was a key issue in a Democratic primary campaign he won. His campaign has tried to paint Nussle as to the right of the electorate on the issue. Neither candidate has led by more than the polls' margin of error this year.

GUBERNATORIAL: MARYLAND

Bob Ehrlich, who became the first Republican governor in 34 years when he defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002, continues to face a tough battle to extend his governorship. Ehrlich trails Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley by 13 percentage points -- the widest margin since June. GUBERNATORIAL: MASSACHUSETTS

Massachusetts has elected Republican governors since Michael Dukakis departed but, with Gov. Mitt Romney opting against seeking re-election, the Democrats are running strong. Romney's lieutenant governor, Kerry Healey, trails three Democrats: Chris Gabrieli, a late entry to the race who was the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in 2002; Deval Patrick, a former assistant attorney general for civil rights; and Tom Reilly, the state's attorney general. Independent Christy Mihos polls under 20% when included in each of the matchups.

GUBERNATORIAL: MICHIGAN

Gov. Jennifer Granholm leads Republican challenger Dick DeVos, the Amway heir, by five percentage points. Her standing has improved markedly since a poll conducted in the spring, but her lead is within the margin of error. "DeVos has deep pockets, and this race is far from over, but at this point the overall trend favors Granholm's retention of the seat," Zogby says. GUBERNATORIAL: MINNESOTA

Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who succeeded independent Jesse Ventura, is in a tight race for re-election. Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch edged ahead of Pawlenty in the past two polls, after trailing the governor by five percentage points in a Zogby poll as recently as June. Pawlenty leads in a matchup against state Sen. Becky Lourey. Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson polls under 15% in each matchup.

GUBERNATORIAL: NEVADA

Republican nominee, Rep. Jim Gibbons, climbed back into the lead in the latest poll. He is ahead by eight percentage points in a two-way matchup -- a lead that is greater than the poll's margin of error. In August, Democratic State Senator Dina Titus had edged to a narrow lead for the first time in the polling project, a move that followed her primary election victory. GUBERNATORIAL: NEW YORK

State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer continues to hold tightly to his position as the leading Democratic candidate for governor of New York; rival Democrat Tom Suozzi polls weaker than Spitzer against the GOP's candidate, lawyer John Faso. The state's primary election will be held Sept. 12.

GUBERNATORIAL: OHIO

Republican Ohio Gov. Bob Taft's time is up due to term limits, and Democrats hope the investment scandal that engulfed him this year will mar his party's hopes to hold the governorship. GOP Secretary of State Ken Blackwell saw his position strengthen in the latest poll, to a deficit of about six percentage points behind the Democrats' candidate, Congressman Ted Strickland. GUBERNATORIAL: OREGON

Incumbent Democrat Ted Kulongoski maintained his lead over the Republicans' Ron Saxton in the most recent poll. A four-way matchup including the Libertarian candidate Richard Morley and the Constitution Party's Mary Starrett results in little change for the margin between the two lead candidates.

GUBERNATORIAL: PENNSYLVANIA

Incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell remains locked in a tight race with Republican Lynn Swann, a former Pittsburgh Steeler wide receiver. Rendell has led consistently in polls conducted over the past several months. But while Swann staged a small rally in mid- August, narrowing his deficit, Rendell gained ground in September; his lead is at its widest this year. GUBERNATORIAL: TEXAS

Incumbent Rick Perry faces stiff competition for re-election, with several strong third-party candidates as well as a Democratic rival. Zogby's latest poll is the first to include Libertarian James Werner, and the new five-way matchup results in a narrower lead for Perry over the Democrat candidate, former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell. Author and musician Kinky Friedman and one-time Republican Carole Keeton Strayhorn, the state's comptroller running as an independent, poll in double-digits.

GUBERNATORIAL: WISCONSIN

Wisconsin Republicans see Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle as vulnerable in the 2006 race; his success could hinge on attempts to increase school funding and limit the state's rising property taxes. After improving his standing in mid-August, Doyle lost ground in the latest poll against Republican Mark Green. Doyle's lead has fallen to within the poll's margin of error.

September 11, 2006 Senate Races

Jim Pederson -- polling again at 50%. Speculation in the state has focused on the ability of Pederson, a millionaire shopping mall developer, to fund his statewide race from his own pockets. On energy, Pederson opposes new Alaska drilling but is pushing the idea of a solar research center in Arizona.

SENATE: CONNECTICUT

Joe Lieberman's lead over Democrat Ned Lamont narrowed in the latest poll and is now within the margin of error. Lieberman, running as an independent since losing the Democratic primary, was 10 percentage points ahead of Lamont in August, immmediately after the primary. Now his lead had fallen to four points, while Republican Alan Schlesinger remains a distant third. Lieberman has angered his party for his support for the Iraq war, so has stepped up his attacks on the war strategy and execution. In the most recent poll, Lamont has eked out a narrow, one-point lead among Connecticut����s women voters, though he trails Lieberman badly among men.

SENATE: FLORIDA

Sen. Bill Nelson is ahead by a wide margin. Republican nominee Katherine Harris, known for her role in the 2000 election fight, has struggled. Fundraising has been slow and GOP leaders tried to find another candidate. Republicans usually fare better than Democrats among church-goers; but in the latest poll, Harris trails Nelson among Catholics and mainline Protestants, and has too small a lead among evangelicals to make up for it, Zogby finds. SENATE: MARYLAND

Democratic candidates remain ahead in the race for the Senate seat of retiring Democrat Paul Sarbanes. The state has gone back and forth in its party leanings. In 2002, the state elected its first Republican governor in 34 years, but it returned to its blue-state roots in 2004, voting for John Kerry in the presidential race. Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, a conservative African- American, trails in matchups against Democrat Ben Cardin, former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume and Josh Rales, whose candidacy gained attention after he launched a big ad campaign this summer.

SENATE: MICHIGAN

Incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow's lead has remained between 4-6 percentage points since July. In the latest poll, she is six points ahead of Michael Bouchard, sheriff of Oakland County, north of Detroit. As recently as March, she led by 14 points. Zogby notes that both candidates are capturing about 95% of voters in their own party. Putting Bouchard at a disadvantage: He trails by five percentage points among independents -- and there are more Democrats than Republicans in Michigan, Zogby notes.

SENATE: MINNESOTA

Democrat Amy Klobuchar, the Hennepin County attorney, has a nine-percentage-point advantage over Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy in the race to fill the seat that will be vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton. It is Klobuchar's biggest lead in the polling project this year.

SENATE: MISSOURI

Missouri Republican Sen. Jim Talent continues to poll just ahead of Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill. Just one percentage point separated the candidates in the initial months of Zogby polling, but in the past several polls Talent has consistently led McCaskill by about four or five percentage points. Zogby says the Republican is helped by his popularity among religious voters. SENATE: NEVADA

Republican incumbent Sen. John Ensign's lead over Jack Carter, the former president's son, had narrowed considerably in August after the state's primary election. Ensign recaptured some lost ground in the latest poll but his lead remains narrower than the advantage he had prior to August.

SENATE: NEW JERSEY

Robert Menendez, who was named to serve in the Senate this year after Jon Corzine's move into the governorship, is polling even with Republican Tom Kean Jr., a state senator and the son of the popular former governor. This race, Zogby says, is the GOP's "best hope of a pick-up on Election Night." SENATE: NEW MEXICO

Sen. Jeff Bingaman, a Democrat, saw his wide over Allen McCulloch narrow slightly in the most recent poll. McCulloch, a political newcomer, is a Farmington, N.M., urologist.

SENATE: NEW YORK

Incumbent Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead over Republican rivals, including former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer, her closest challenger and the candidate Zogby calls "a solid bet for his party's nomination." Kathleen Troia "KT" McFarland, a Reagan-era Pentagon official, sees figures weaker than Spencer's in matchups against Clinton. Anti-war Democrat and labor organizer Jonathan Tasini also outpolls Spencer and McFarland, but his lead is much narrower than Clinton's. The state's primary election will be held Sept. 12.

SENATE: OHIO

Ohio's hotly contested Senate race is getting hotter. In the latest poll pairing incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine to the challenger, seven-term state Rep. Sherrod Brown, the spread between the two candidates fell by half, to about four percentage points from about eight percentage points in July and August. But Brown continues to hold the lead. Zogby notes that DeWine has the backing of just 78% of Republican voters; many conservatives have cooled to him.

SENATE: PENNSYLVANIA

Incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Santorum has lost ground among the most conservative Republican voters since supporting fellow (but more moderate) GOP Sen. Arlen Specter in his 2004 race against the right-wing Pat Toomey. Democrats are gunning for Santorum, too, arguing that he is too conservative for a state that voted Democratic in two straight presidential elections. Casey continued to lead in the most recent Zogby poll, but Santorum gained some ground, pulling to within four percentage points, an improvement from his deficit of about nine percentage points in the previous two surveys. The race is now closer than it has been at any earlier point in the Zogby poll series.

SENATE: TENNESSEE

In the close race to succeed Sen. Bill Frist, the Senate majority leader vacating his seat next year to explore a potential 2008 presidential bid, Democrats are hoping to capitalize. But their candidate, Rep. Harold Ford Jr., one of the more conservative Democrats in the House, is suffering from an upsurge of support for the GOP's Bob Corker, who won the state's early-August Republican primary. Corker's lead narrowed slightly in the most recent poll. The margin between the candidates has been with the poll's margin of error for months.

SENATE: TEXAS

Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than 10 years, and Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who got 65% of the vote in 2000, is a safe bet to win a third term. In the latest poll, though, Democratic challenger Barbara Ann Radnofsky -- boosted by strength among independent voters, according to Zogby -- narrowed her deficit to about nine percentage points, from about 18 percentage points in mid-August. SENATE: VIRGINIA

In the race for Virginia's Senate seat, George Allen, the state's Republican senator and former governor, had been polling well above James Webb, former secretary of the Navy in the Reagan administration; Allen led by about 11 percentage points in July. But the lay of the land changed considerably after Allen's controversial comments about a rival's campaign worker. In the mid-August poll, Webb took a one-percentage-point lead, and the latest numbers show him ahead by a seven-point margin.

SENATE: WASHINGTON

Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell remains in strong position against Safeco CEO and GOP nominee Mike McGavick, thanks to a campaign strategy that includes making much of gay marriage -- a popular idea among Washington's generally liberal voters and one that may entice them to overlook her support for the war in Iraq. SENATE: WISCONSIN

Incumbent Sen. Herb Kohl, a Democrat, faces Robert Gerald Lorge, a lawyer who lost a 2002 race for secretary of state and was the only Republican to meet the mid-July filing deadline for the state's Sept. 12 primary. Kohl polls well ahead of Lorge.

Methodology

Online polls were conducted by Zogby Interactive, a unit of Zogby International of Utica, N.Y. Zogby has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who registered were asked to provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby, which in turn examined that data and contacted individuals by telephone to confirm that it was valid.

Zogby International telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data. To solicit participation, Zogby sent emails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls.

The Interactive polls were supplemented by 20 to 40 telephone calls in 19 states (AR, CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, MD, MI, MO, NV, NM, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, TX, VA, WI) to ensure proper representation of all demographic groups.

Margins of error for each candidate vary by state and range between 2.6 and 4.5 percentage points. Margins for specific states are available on the state panels.

Zogby International President John Zogby says 15% of the company's U.S. database of online-poll participants are "regulars," who take part in half of the interactive polls the company conducts; the balance of the names of respondents in the database change frequently. Likely voters in each of the 25 states followed instructions sent by an e-mail that led them to the survey located on Zogby's secure servers. Those polled were asked unique questions pertaining to the races in their state.

As is usual in polling, weightings are applied to ensure that the selection of participants accurately reflects characteristics of the voting population, including region, party, age, race, religion and gender.

For the overall party breakdowns shown in the governor and senate panels: Races that aren't being polled are assumed to stay in their current party's possession.

Regarding 2006 races, the actual matchups that voters will see on ballots haven't been decided. Primary elections that will narrow the field will be held beginning in early March. Until the fields are narrowed for 2006, the Zogby polls match up multiple candidates in each state and identify some of the strongest candidates from each party. Voter sentiment is gauged on declared candidates along with others whom political observers have identified as potential contenders.

The schedule for primaries is as follows:

l March 7 - Texas l March 21 - Illinois l April 2 - Ohio l April 16 - Oregon l May 15 - Pennsylvania l June - Washington* l June 6 - California, Iowa l June 12 - New York l July 7 - New Jersey l July 18 - Georgia l August - Colorado* l Aug. 3 - Tennessee l Aug. 8 - Michigan l Aug. 15 - Nevada l September - Minnesota* l Sept. 5 - Florida l Sept. 12 - Maryland, Wisconsin l Sept. 16 - Massachusetts

*exact date to be determined

Read more about Zogby's methodology: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=830

Sources

Zogby Interactive: http://www.zogby.com/, Cook Political Report: http://www.cookpolitical.com, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/, state governments, state elections boards, WSJ.com research

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