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Climate Effects of Black Carbon Aerosols in China and India Surabi Menon, Et Al Climate Effects of Black Carbon Aerosols in China and India Surabi Menon, et al. Science 297, 2250 (2002); DOI: 10.1126/science.1075159 The following resources related to this article are available online at www.sciencemag.org (this information is current as of October 3, 2008 ): Updated information and services, including high-resolution figures, can be found in the online version of this article at: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/297/5590/2250 Supporting Online Material can be found at: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/297/5590/2250/DC1 A list of selected additional articles on the Science Web sites related to this article can be found at: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/297/5590/2250#related-content This article cites 23 articles, 3 of which can be accessed for free: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/297/5590/2250#otherarticles on October 3, 2008 This article has been cited by 251 article(s) on the ISI Web of Science. This article has been cited by 8 articles hosted by HighWire Press; see: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/297/5590/2250#otherarticles This article appears in the following subject collections: Atmospheric Science http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/collection/atmos www.sciencemag.org Information about obtaining reprints of this article or about obtaining permission to reproduce this article in whole or in part can be found at: http://www.sciencemag.org/about/permissions.dtl Downloaded from Science (print ISSN 0036-8075; online ISSN 1095-9203) is published weekly, except the last week in December, by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. Copyright 2002 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved. The title Science is a registered trademark of AAAS. R EPORTS Fig. 1 with aerosol single-scatter albedo (SSA) ϭ 0.85 (18), which is representative of Climate Effects of Black Carbon measurements from the Indian Ocean Exper- iment (INDOEX) (17) and industrial regions Aerosols in China and India in China. We obtained such relatively “dark” aerosols by including an appropriate amount 1,2 1 1,2 Surabi Menon, * James Hansen, Larissa Nazarenko, of BC, with the remainder being sulfate. In Yunfeng Luo3 experiment B, we removed BC so that SSA ϭ 1; i.e., the aerosols were “white.” In both A In recent decades, there has been a tendency toward increased summer floods and B, the sea surface temperature (SST), in south China, increased drought in north China, and moderate cooling in China greenhouse gases, and other forcings were and India while most of the world has been warming. We used a global climate kept fixed at the same values as in the control model to investigate possible aerosol contributions to these trends. We found run, so that the aerosols were the only forc- precipitation and temperature changes in the model that were comparable to ing. Both experiments were run for 120 years. those observed if the aerosols included a large proportion of absorbing black Figure 2A shows the simulated summer carbon (“soot”), similar to observed amounts. Absorbing aerosols heat the air, [June, July, and August (JJA)] surface air alter regional atmospheric stability and vertical motions, and affect the large- temperature (TS) changes. The aerosols with scale circulation and hydrologic cycle with significant regional climate effects. SSA ϭ 0.85 yield cooling in China by 0.5 to 1 K (a consequence of the reduced solar China has been experiencing an increased global warming (5, 6), unlike most aerosols, radiation reaching the surface) but warming severity of dust storms, commonly attributed which reflect sunlight to space and have a in most of the world [due to BC heating of the to overfarming, overgrazing, and destruction global cooling effect (7). BC emissions, a troposphere (19)]. Because of the long model of forests (1). Plumes of dust from north product of incomplete combustion from coal, run, the cooling in China and even the warm- China, with adhered toxic contaminants, are diesel engines, biofuels, and outdoor biomass ing in many distant locations are highly sig- cause for public health concern in China, burning (8), are particularly large in China nificant (Ͼ99%), based on Student’s t test Japan, and Korea, and some of the aerosols and India because of low-temperature house- (fig. S2). The simulated cooling in China is even reach the United States (2). Recent dust hold burning of biofuels and coal (9). larger than the observed cooling there during on October 3, 2008 events have prompted Chinese officials to It is reasonable to anticipate that human- the past 50 years (Fig. 2B), when most of the consider spending several hundred billion made aerosols may contribute to climate change increase in aerosol amount probably oc- yuan (ϳ$12 billion) in the next decade to in China and India, because both absorbing BC curred. This is as expected, because the sim- increase forests and green belts to combat the aerosols and reflective aerosols, such as sulfates, ulations exclude the effect of increasing dust storms (3). Such measures may be ben- reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the greenhouse gases (20). eficial in any case. However, we suggest that ground and thus should tend to cause local The BC absorption in China and India caus- the observed trend toward increased summer cooling. Observed temperatures in China and es a significant warming (Ͼ0.5 K) in the Sahara floods in south China and drought in north India in recent decades, unlike most of the Desert region and in west and central Canada, China (4), thought to be the largest change in world, reveal little warming (10); and in some despite the fixed SST. Because aerosols were www.sciencemag.org precipitation trends since 950 A.D. (4), may seasons there is cooling, especially in the sum- unchanged outside the China/India region, this have an alternative explanation: human-made mer when aerosol effects should be largest. The warming at a distance seems to be due to heat- absorbing aerosols in remote populous indus- climate effect of aerosols is complicated, be- ing of tropospheric air over China and India, trial regions that alter the regional atmospher- cause aerosols have, in addition to their direct with dynamical export to the rest of the world, ic circulation and contribute to regional cli- radiative effects, indirect effects on cloud prop- where the warmer troposphere can reduce con- mate change. If our interpretation is correct, erties (7, 11). vective and radiative cooling of the surface. reducing the amount of anthropogenic black Here we report on climate model simula- Consistent with observations (10, 21), this carbon aerosols, in addition to having human tions of the direct radiative effect of aerosols warming does not occur over the south central Downloaded from health benefits, may help diminish the inten- in the region of China and India. We used the United States, where the observed cooling trend sity of floods in the south and droughts and Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is thought to be driven by warming in the dust storms in the north. Similar consider- SI2000 12-layer climate model, which has tropical Pacific Ocean (21, 22). ations may apply to India and neighboring been used to study the impact of several regions such as Afghanistan, which have ex- forcings on global mean temperature (12). perienced recent droughts. Figure 1 shows the (seasonally independent) Aerosol optical depth ⌬␶ ␮ Atmospheric aerosols, which are fine par- added aerosol optical depth aer (0.55 m) ticles suspended in the air, comprise a mix- used in our climate model experiments (13). ⌬␶ ␮ ture of mainly sulfates, nitrates, carbonaceous Over China, we take aer (0.55 m) to be ␶ ␮ (organic and black carbon) particles, sea salt, equal to aer (0.75 m) measured in the 1990s and mineral dust. Black (elemental) carbon (14, 15). Over India and the Indian Ocean, ⌬␶ (BC) is of special interest because it absorbs aer in our experiments is taken from chem- sunlight, heats the air, and contributes to ical transport model assimilations of satellite measurements (16). The resulting radiative forcings at the top of the atmosphere and 1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New surface (fig. S1) are ϳϩ6WmϪ2 and –17 W 2 York, NY 10025, USA. Center for Climate Systems mϪ2, respectively, over India and the Indian Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA. 3National Science Foundation of China, Haidian, Ocean, which is comparable to values esti- ⌬␶ Fig. 1. Incremental aerosol optical depth aer China. mated by others (17). (0.55 ␮m), which is used to drive the climate *To whom correspondence should be addressed. E- We performed two primary experiments. change simulations. Latitude and longitude are mail: [email protected] In experiment A, we added the aerosols of denoted. 2250 27 SEPTEMBER 2002 VOL 297 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org R EPORTS Experiment B, with pure sulfate aerosols, increased precipitation, with a lesser decrease to scale circulation associated with the Asian yields global cooling (Fig. 2A) as expected, the north. The magnitude of the precipitation summer monsoon, such as southwesterly but the cooling in China is small compared changes, ϳ0.5 mm/day or 5 cm for the season, winds bringing moisture to eastern China with that in experiment A. The difference is is comparable to changes based on observed from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, that BC heats the air, thus increasing local trends over several decades (4). In comparison, upper-level westerlies and an anticyclone convection, precipitation, and surface cool- precipitation changes are small in experiment B centered over the Tibetan Plateau, and strong ing, as we illustrate below.
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