prepared for and Ministry of Natural Resources Evaluation and Assessment of Ontario’s Waterpower Potential Final Report October 2005 prepared by The Energy Company Table of Contents DISCLAIMER LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 ONTARIO’S EXISTING WATERPOWER FACILITIES.......................................................... 1 1.2 EXISTING WATERPOWER ENERGY PRODUCTION ........................................................... 3 1.3 PRESENT STUDY BACKGROUND..................................................................................... 4 1.4 SCOPE OF WORK ............................................................................................................ 5 2 APPROACH.......................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 CATEGORIES OF ASSESSMENT........................................................................................ 6 3 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................... 9 3.1 IDENTIFICATION OF DATABASES AND PREVIOUS STUDIES OF HYDRO POTENTIAL ........ 9 3.1.1 Databases ................................................................................................................. 9 3.1.2 Previous Studies ..................................................................................................... 10 3.2 ASSESSMENT OF DISCRETE SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS .................................................... 11 3.3 SCREENING CRITERIA .................................................................................................. 12 3.3.1 Economic Criteria .................................................................................................. 13 3.3.2 Transmission Criteria............................................................................................. 15 3.3.3 Policy Criteria........................................................................................................ 16 4 RESULTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS....................................................................... 18 4.1 SUMMARY.................................................................................................................... 18 4.2 POTENTIAL SITES RELATED TO LAND-USE AND POLICY AREAS ................................. 21 4.3 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER INVESTIGATIONS ................................................. 22 LIST OF REFERENCES BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIX A - DETAILED INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL WATERPOWER SITES Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Hatch Acres for the sole and exclusive use of the Ontario Waterpower Association (OWA) and shall not be used for any other purpose without authorization from Hatch Acres. Any use of or reliance upon this report by a third party is done at the sole risk of such third party and Hatch Acres hereby disclaims any responsibility or liability in connection therewith. This report contains opinions and conclusions made by Hatch Acres, using its judgment and reasonable care. Any use of or reliance upon this report by OWA is subject to the following conditions: a) This report is meant to be read as a whole, and sections or parts thereof should not be read or relied upon out of context. b) Hatch Acres provides no warranty, guarantee, or other assurances to OWA, express or implied, of any kind, nor assumes liability of any kind relative to the observations and conclusions set out in this report. Information gathered for this report is based on current information and knowledge available on existing plants, dams, and potential sites. Although considerable effort has been made to verify and ensure this information is accurate, it is possible or inevitable that there may be some oversights and/or mistakes made throughout this process. With future studies or investigations on waterpower sites in Ontario, these oversights and/or mistakes can be reviewed and corrected. It is important to note that the intent of the database created from this report is to provide a guideline for choosing waterpower sites to be further investigating for hydroelectric generation. The present study results should not be used as the sole criteria for choosing these sites. List of Tables No. Title 4.1 Summary of Potential Installed Capacity by Category 4.2 Summary of Number of Potential Sites by Category 4.3 Potential Installed Capacity – Land-Use and Policy Areas 4.4 Number of Sites – Land-Use and Policy Areas List of Figures No. Title 1.1 Number of Ontario Waterpower Facilities by Category 1.2 Total Capacity of Ontario Waterpower Facilities by Category 1 Introduction In the past, the Province of Ontario has studied in great detail the waterpower potential in the province. As stated by Ontario Hydro (OH, 1987): “The Province of Ontario is a land of many lakes and rivers, a legacy from the action of glaciers in the Ice Age. At last count, there are about 227,000 lakes in the province. These lakes and their interconnecting rivers cover an area of approximately 181,200 km2, or about 17 percent of the total area of the province. With these many lakes and rivers and a mean annual runoff of 309 mm from precipitation over the entire province, it is no wonder that fresh water is considered one of the most abundant and readily available resources of the province.” Despite this, there remains a perception that ‘there are no waterpower opportunities’ remaining in the province of Ontario. These statements have likely arisen because there have been no significant waterpower developments in Ontario for more than 25 years. Such statements are not accurate. As the demand for electricity increases, many waterpower sites that were previously deemed impractical or uneconomic will become more feasible. As well, developments that were previously proposed but not pursued may also become of interest. Hatch Acres was commissioned at the beginning of August 2005 by the Ontario Waterpower Association (OWA) to undertake an evaluation and assessment of the waterpower potential in the province of Ontario. The intent of the present study is to support OWA’s submission [in partnership with the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR)] to the Ontario Power Authority (OPA), for the OPA’s initiative focused on long-term energy supply options. The present study is a compilation of available information from a large number of sources. No additional fieldwork or site reconnaissance was undertaken for this study. 1.1 Ontario’s Existing Waterpower Facilities The province of Ontario has close to 200 operating waterpower facilities geographically distributed across the province. In total, these facilities have an installed capacity of more than 8000 MW and account, on average, for approximately one quarter of the province’s annual average energy production. 2 Figures 1.1 and 1.2 provide an overview of the relative percentage of facilities by the number of plants (Figure 1.1) and by the total capacity (Figure 1.2) by category. 10% 24% 25% 41% Categories: Capacity under 1 MW Capacity between 1 MW - 10 MW Capacity between 10 MW - 100 MW Capacity over 100 MW Figure 1.1: Number of Ontario Waterpower Facilities by Category 0.2% 4% 21.6% 74.2% Categories: Capacity under 1 MW Capacity between 1 MW - 10 MW Capacity between 10 MW - 100 MW Capacity over 100 MW Figure 1.2: Total Capacity of Ontario Waterpower Facilities by Category 3 Waterpower has been produced in Ontario for more than 100 years, and up until the middle of the 20th century, accounted for almost all the electricity production in the province. Through the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, little waterpower capacity was added, as nearly all of the new plants built were small, with the province choosing to focus investment in other technologies and sources, namely fossil and nuclear generation. Beginning in the mid-1980s and into the early 1990s, the province, through Ontario Hydro, embarked upon the development of a ‘Demand-Supply’ plan that explored electricity options for Ontario going forward. With respect to waterpower, the plan (“Providing the Balance of Power,” OH, 1990) identified in Chapter 12 (The Hydraulic Plan) proposed for Ontario Hydro to develop an additional 3591 MW of hydroelectricity and allocated more than 1300 MW to the private sector. More than a decade later, the majority of that potential remains unrealized. 1.2 Existing Waterpower Energy Production Waterpower plays a unique and increasingly important role in Ontario’s energy supply mix, serving both base-load and peak-load system requirements. The ‘value’ of flexibility was aptly described in the most recent Independent Electricity System Operator’s (IESO’s) 10-Year Outlook (January 2006 – December 2015) (IESO, 2005). “The IESO is concerned with the future management of the province’s water resources as they relate to electricity production. The flexibility available in the operation of hydroelectric facilities is of value to the Ontario power system. The importance of this needs to continue to be reflected and balanced with other uses which may influence provincial requirements with respect to water management. Ontario’s electricity consumption pattern has changed over the last decade. Consumers have historically used more electricity in the winter than they did in the summer. This has reversed. Peak electricity demands now occur during the summer, the season in which water management is typically most restricted. Within