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Table of Contents T HE GOVERMENT PETROLEUM FUND: ANNUAL REPORT 2004 1 Table of contents Key figures 2004. 2 Introduction . 3 Key Figures 1997-2004. 4 Report 1. Mandate . 10 2. Return on the Petroleum Fund in 2004 . 12 3. Fixed income management . 16 4. Equity management. 19 5. Risk. 24 6. Organisation of management . 27 7. Management costs . 29 8. Reporting of accounts. .0 . 4. 30 Auditor´s report . 32 Documentation section Holdings of equities at 31 December 2004 . 33 Fixed income investments at 31 December 2004. 47 2 The Government Petroleum Fund – key figures 2004 In billions of NOK 1100 1016.4 1000 Market value in NOK at 31.12.2004 • Total portfolio 1016.4 billion • Equity portfolio 416.3 billion 900 • Fixed income portfolio 600.1 billion 845.3 Transfers from the Ministry of Finance in 2004 (in NOK) 800 138.2 billion Return in 2004 measured in international currencies • Total 8.9 % 700 • Equity portfolio 13.0 % • Fixed income portfolio 6.1 % • Environmental Fund 8.7 % 613.7 609.0 600 Gross excess return in relation to the benchmark: 0.53 percentage point 500 386.4 400 300 222.4 200 171.8 113.4 100 47.8 0 -100 -200 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 Transfers Return measured in Effect of a change in the krone Market value at 31.12 international currencies exchange rate (which has no effect on international purchasing power) T HE G OVERMENT P ETROLEUM F UND : A NNUAL REPORT 2 0 0 4 3 Excess return with low risk The Petroleum Fund had another good year in 2004. The return was 8.9 per cent measured in international currency. In 2003, the best year so far, the return was 12.6 per cent. The combined return for these two years was thus 22.6 per cent, primarily reflecting high returns in equity markets. In the previous two-year period, the only years with negative returns, the value of the Fund declined by 7.0 per cent. Returns have fluctuated considerably since the Petroleum Fund made its first investments in the equity markets in 1998. One important aspect of the management strategy defined by the Ministry of Finance is to ensure that equity exposure remains fairly stable. This has implied fairly large equity purchases during periods when prices declined sharply. So far, this long-term strategy has proved to be very profitable. As expected, returns on fixed income instruments have fluctuated considerably less. Returns have only been negative in 1999. In recent years, returns have been relatively high. The portfolio has benefited from the short-term effect of value changes associated with the fall in international interest rates. It is not natural to expect this to continue. The yield on fixed income instruments is very low seen in a historical perspective. So far, the average annual real return on the Petroleum Fund has been 4 per cent after deducting management costs. This is equivalent to NOK 182 billion, disregarding the effect of the krone exchange rate. Norges Bank’s management performance is measured against the equity and fixed income benchmarks that have been stipulated by the Ministry of Finance. In 2004, the excess return was 0.53 percentage point. This is the seventh consecutive year since 1998 that Norges Bank has achieved an excess return. After deducting the additional costs related to active management, the average annual excess return was 0.40 percentage point. Considering excess return in relation to additional costs is not sufficient to evaluate the profitability of active management. It is also important to assess the impact of active management on risk. Until now, Norges Bank’s active management has not appreciably increased the risk for the Petroleum Fund compared with pure index management. This is because Norges Bank has chosen a strategy that entails taking a very large number of active independent positions. The management of the Petroleum Fund is an important and demanding challenge for Norges Bank. The Bank places considerable emphasis on control and risk management. The Bank also seeks to minimise costs in connection with the phasing-in of new capital into equity and fixed income markets. As in previous years, the management of the Petroleum Fund in 2004 has been conducted without significant breaches of the guidelines laid down by the Ministry of Finance. Norges Bank seeks to be transparent and provide comprehensive information on the Fund management. We hope that this annual report provides our readers with useful insight into the management of the Petroleum Fund. Svein Gjedrem Knut N. Kjær Central Bank Governor Executive Director, Norges Bank Investment Management F ORVALTNING AV S TATENS PETROLEUMSFOND ÅRSRAPPORT 2 0 0 32 • B ERETNINGSDEL 3 4 Key figures 1997-2004 In 2004 the return on the Petroleum year the Petroleum Fund invested in other words, the information ratio shows Fund was 8.9 per cent, measured in equities, the average annual excess re- how much excess return is achieved for international currency. The returns on turn has been 0.45 percentage point. The each unit of risk. Since 1998 the infor- the equity and fixed income portfolios corresponding NOK amount for the en- mation ratio has averaged 1.15. were 13.0 per cent and 6.1 per cent, tire period is 14.2 billion. The market value of the Petroleum respectively. The return on the Fund The Ministry of Finance has given Fund at end-2004 was NOK 1 016 bil- was 3.9 per cent measured in NOK. The Norges Bank a framework for exercising lion. During 2004, the Ministry of Fi- difference between the return measured active management with a view to achiev- nance transferred NOK 138 billion to in international currency and measured ing an excess return. Since 1998 the the Fund. A total of NOK 934 billion has in NOK is due to movements in the krone market risk of the actual portfolio has been transferred since 1996. exchange rate, which have no effect on been only marginally higher than the the long-term international purchasing market risk of the benchmark. Thus Return 1997–2004 power of the Petroleum Fund. the cost of active management has been The average annual return since 1997 low in terms of higher risk and has been The return on the Petroleum Fund is has been 5.8 per cent, measured in inter- somewhat higher than if the portfolio shown in Table 1. Since 1997, the annual national currency. The cumulative return had been managed passively close to the nominal return on the Petroleum Fund, amounts to NOK 182 billion. After de- benchmark. The real value added through measured in international currency, has ductions for inflation and management active management, taking into account averaged 5.76 per cent. The return has costs, the annual net real return was 4.0 these costs, is estimated at an average of been positive in six of these years and per cent. 0.40 percentage point annually. negative in two. In 1997, the Fund was In 2004, Norges Bank achieved an The information ratio is one measure only invested in interest-bearing gov- excess return of 0.53 percentage point of skills in asset management. It is cal- ernment securities. Since 1998 the port- compared with the return on the bench- culated as the ratio of the annual excess folio has included both equities and mark portfolio defined by the Ministry return to the excess risk taken in relation fixed income instruments. The nominal of Finance. Since 1988, the first whole to the benchmark (tracking error). In annual returns on the equity and fixed Table 1: Annual nominal and real return measured in terms of the Fund’s currency basket 1997 – 2004. Per cent 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1997-2004 Nominal return - on the equity portfolio* - 12.86 34.81 -5.82 -14.59 -24.37 22.83 13.00 3.64 - on the fixed income portfolio9.07 9.31 -0.99 8.41 5.04 9.90 5.26 6.10 6.46 - on the total portfolio 9.07 9.25 12.44 2.50 -2.47 -4.74 12.59 8.94 5.76 Price inflation** 1.75 0.92 1.28 2.02 1.18 1.89 1.36 2.43 1.60 Real return (geometric) 7.19 8.25 11.02 0.47 -3.61 -6.51 11.08 6.35 4.09 Management costs*** 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.08 Net real return 7.15 8.19 10.93 0.36 -3.68 -6.60 10.98 6.24 4.01 * Including the separate Environmental Fund, which was established in 2001 and discontinued in 2004. ** Weighted average of consumer price inflation in the countries included in the Fund’s benchmark portfolio during the year in question. *** Costs include fees to external managers for excess return achieved. Costs in 1997 are estimated but not calculated exactly. 40 Equities Fixed income 30 10 20 8 Annual net real return 10 6 Net real return without contribution from active 0 4 management -10 2 -20 0 -30 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Chart 1: Average annual net real return since 1997. Per cent Chart 2: Annual return on the equity and fixed income portfolios, measured in terms of the Fund’s currency basket 1998 – 2004. Per cent T HE GOVERMENT PETROLEUM FUND: ANNUAL REPORT 2004 5 income portfolios for the years 1997 – This has no effect on the international Transfers of new capital 2004 have averaged 3.64 and 6.46 per purchasing power of the Fund.
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