Fire Management in the Forest and Rural Landscape

Presentation to the 2019 ANZIF Joint Conference Christchurch

Fire Management In The Forest And Rural Landscape

- “At What Cost” - Murray Dudfield August 2019 1 Australian plantation statistics 2019 update

Department of Agriculture and Water Resources 2 3 Australia & New Zealand Fire Services Regulatory Framework

State Umbrella department Fire service provider(s) Land management agency(s) NSW • NSW Ministry for Police and Emergency • Fire & Rescue NSW: • NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change Services • NSW Rural Fire Service: and Water • NSW Office of Emergency Management • NSW National Park and Wildlife Service • Forests NSW • NSW Lands Department • NSW Water Authorities Vic • Department of Justice and Regulation • Metropolitan Fire and Emergency Services • Department of Environment, Land, Water & • Emergency Management Victoria Board: Planning (Suppression only) • Country Fire Authority:

Qld • The Public Safety Business Agency (PSBA) • Queensland Fire and Emergency Services • Department of Natural Resources, Mines and (QFES) Energy • Department of Environment and Science WA • Department of Fire and Emergency Services • Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and (DFES) Tourism SA • Fire and Emergency Services Commission • South Australian Metropolitan Fire Service: • Forestry SA • South Australian Country Fire Service: • Department of Environment and Water Tas • State Fire Commission • Tasmania Fire Service: • Sustainable Timber Tasmania • Parks and Wildlife Service ACT • ACT Emergency Services Agency • ACT Fire and Rescue • Parks and Conservation Service • ACT Rural Fire Service NT • NT Fire, Rescue and Emergency Services • NT Fire and Rescue Service • Bushfires NT • Department of Environment and Natural • Parks and Wildlife Commission of the NT Resources • Department of Internal Affairs • Fire and Emergency NZ • ???? NZ 4 ➢ Prior to July 2017 New Zealand had a decentralized rural fire structure and a centralised urban fire structure. This decentralized rural fire structure involved forest owners in a governance role. ➢ Government went ahead and merged the management of fire in the forest and rural landscape with urban fire protection in 2016. ➢ Legislation to implement this changed was passed by Parliament with Fire and Emergency NZ becoming established on the 1st July 2017. ➢ Government agreed in 2016 that the benefits of this merger would include; ➢ FENZ making better strategic use of people and resources; ➢ More effective services so that people and lives are better protected and there is better operational decision making; ➢ Likely efficiencies, with $47.7 million expected from year five; ➢ Retention of volunteers, with new volunteer joining; and ➢ Regions having greater control over their fire services and how much they cost. 5 Structure Fires Per 10,000 Population 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas ACT NT New Zealand 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-186 140 Landscape Fires per 10,000 population

120

100

0 NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas ACT NT New Zealand 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 7 Australia/New Zealand Fire Services Cost Per Capita NZ$ $350

$300

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0 NSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas ACT NT Australia New 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Zealand 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 8 Fire Services Cost Per Capita (NZ$) $210

$190

$170 33% increase over 3 yrs $150

$130

$110

$90

$70

$50 England Scotland New Zealand Australia FY2008/09 FY2009-10 FY2010-11 FY2011-12 FY2012-13 FY2013-14

FY2014-15 FY2015-16 FY2016-17 FY2017/18 FY2018/19 9 10 The FIRE Industry

Public Expenditure ➢ Australia FY2017/18 - $4.61 billion ➢ New Zealand FY2017/18 - $505 million

Private Expenditure

➢ ??? 11 The 737 tanker can carry more than 15,000 litres of fire retardant

NSW Rural Fire Service had four Large Air Tankers 12 (LAT) in service for the 2018/19 fire season Erickson Air Crane S64 with twin engines and six blade, uses Jet A1 fuel at a rate of 2,080 litres per hour, has a max speed of 213kph and carries 9,000 litres of water

13 14 23 helicopters and two fixed wing aircraft deployed to the Pigeon Valley Wildfire

Bell 204 UH1 Iroquois helicopters (1.8T lift Capacity) FIRE FIGHTING -UNDER SLUNG WATER BUCKETS – 1500LT CAPACITY

15 Aircraft at Wildfires ➢ February 2017 – Port Hills fire – 1,660 ha – 14 helicopters ➢ January 2018 - Wanaka fire – 200 ha – 8 helicopters ➢ Febuary 2019 – Pigeon Valley fire – 3,200 ha – 23 helicopters ➢ In the late 1990s a number of studies were undertaken in New Zealand by the forest fire research group at SCION . a) Reducing the influence of helicopter rotor wash on fire behavior, b) Firebombing effectiveness - where to from here?, c) The influence of wind speed on the effectiveness of aerial fire suppression, and d) Comparison of the cost-effectiveness of some aircraft used for fire suppression. (Fogarty et al. 1997, Fire Technology Transfer Note (FTTN) 11)

16 Aircraft at Wildfires ➢ Aircraft can be effective in the first response phase of a fire. ➢ As the hours drag on and a fire continues to spread, the value of sending out additional aircraft becomes more of an open question ➢ Fighting wildfires from the air may seem miraculous, it is no godsend. If helicopters are overused, it is because citizens too often expect them to show up and perform the impossible. ➢ Could be room for fire agencies to be more upfront about their limitations ➢ “From a scientific perspective, it is nearly impossible to determine what kind of effect a helicopter has on a large fire—if it has one at all. – Matt Plucinki ”

17 New Zealand Fire Management In The Forest And Rural Landscape - At What Cost - ➢ Prior to July 2017 ▪ Rural fire services was based on a local governance structure ie., RFAs @ a cost of $29m (FY2016/17) ▪ Urban fire was based on a national structure @ a cost of $424 million (FY2016/17) ▪ Fire suppression cost for plantations wildfire averaged $2,000 per ha over past ten years ➢ July 2017 ▪ Urban and rural fire services merged into one entity ie., Fire and Emergency NZ (FENZ)

➢ Following July 2017 ▪ FENZ annual cost for FY2018/19 $549 million (Increase of ($125 million over 2 yrs) ▪ FENZ annual forecast for FY2020/21 617 million (Increased by a further $68 million over 2 yrs). ▪ Fire suppression costs for plantation wildfire averages $5,000 plus per hectare (2 yrs)

18 Forest Area Hectares Burnt from Fires Hectares (7 Year Average) 1,000 927 900 800 700 629 600 500 477 400 300 280 272 200 100 - 1984-90 1991-97 1998-04 2005-11 2012-18 19 $8,000 Fire Suppression Cost Per Ha for Forested Lands Involving 100 Ha or more $7,298 $7,000

$6,000

$5,000 $4,756

$4,000

$3,000 $1,910 $2,000

$1,000

$0 Average ten year (2006- Port Hill Fire (13th Feb 2017) Pigeon Valley Fire (5th Feb

2015) cost per hectare cost/ha 2019) cost/ha 20 Three Year Average Fire Suppression Costs (12yrs) $15

$13.01 Millions $13

$11

$4.66 $5 $4.19 $4.35

$3 2007/2009 2010/2012 2013/2015 2016/2018 21 Three Year Average Aircraft Cost $5.0 $4.62

$4.5 Millions $4.0

$3.5

$3.0

$2.5 $2.39

$2.0 $1.53 $1.5

$1.0

$0.5

$0.0 2009-11 2012-14 2015-17 22 NZ Comparison for Twelve Years Fire Services Accumilated Budget and 80% Annual Inflation

67.5% 70% 65.6%

60% 55.5%

50% 45.0%

40% 34.6%

30% 24.9% 22.1% 21.2% 20.2% 20% 17.1% 18.5% 15.2% 14.3%13.0% 14.3% 14.6% 10.9% 11.9% 10% 6.4% 7.0% 5.7% 4.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0% 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Cost Annual Rate of Inflation 23 Cost Per Capita (NZ$) $200 $188.22

$180 $165.74 $160

$140 $130.22

$120 $107.51 $102.17 $100 $85.95 $80 $78.06 $76.29 $69.66 $71.02 $58.47 $60

$40 2004/05 2007/08 2012/13 2017/18 Australia New Zealand England 24 Cost Per Capita Change 2007 to 2017 (10yrs) 8.0% 6.1% 6.0% 4.5% 4.0%

2.0%

0.0% Australia New Zealand England -2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0% -8.3% -10.0% 25 Government agreed in 2016 that the benefits of this merger would include; ➢FENZ making better strategic use of people and resources; ➢More effective services so that people and lives are better protected and there is better operational decision making; ➢Likely efficiencies, with $47.7 million expected from year five; ➢Retention of volunteers, with new volunteer joining; and ➢Regions having greater control over their fire services and how much they cost.

26 Review of Fire Services Funding Options

➢ Government has also agreed in 2019 they will undertake a review how our fire services are funded. ➢ Current funding is by way of a fire levy paid by owners who insurance their property ie., buildings & vehicles ➢ Government in their review will consider whether there is a better funding regime for funding fire services.

27 New Zealand - Fire Management In The Forest And Rural Landscape - At What Cost -

➢FY2016/17 $445 million ➢FY2020/21 $618 million

28 New Zealand - Fire Management In The Forest And Rural Landscape - At What Cost -

Facts; ➢ Number of structural fires reducing ➢ FY2016/17 $408 million ➢ Area lost for vegetation fire trending ➢ FY2020/21 $626 million downwards ➢ Area lost from plantation fires trending upwards ➢ Cost per capita increasing above the level of inflation

Key Questions for New Zealanders: ➢ Is better value for money being delivered ➢ Is a One Fire Service approach providing best value for money ➢ What impact will a new fire FENZ funding regime have on the forest industry.

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