BREXIT AND BEYOND ‘Brexit and Beyond is a must read. It moves the ongoing debate about what Brexit actually means to a whole new level… it provides a much-needed scholarly guidepost for our understanding of the significance of Brexit, not only for the United Kingdom, but also for the future of the European continent.’ Catherine E. De Vries, Professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex and Professor in the Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Free University Amsterdam BREXIT ‘Brexit and Beyond provides a fascinating (and comprehensive) analysis on how and why the UK has found itself on the path to exiting the European Union….The volume also provides large amounts of expert-informed speculation on the future of both the EU and UK which is both stimulating and anxiety-inducing.’ AND Richard Whitman, Professor of Politics and International Relations, University of Kent and Director of the Global Europe Centre ‘This book explores wonderfully well the bombshell of Brexit…the collection of essays by leading scholars will prove a very valuable reference for their depth of analysis, their lucidity, and their outlining of future options.’ BEYOND Kevin Featherstone, Head of the LSE European Institute Rethinking the Brexit will have significant consequences not just for the UK, but for Europe, the European Union, and for global order. Drawing on the expertise of 28 leading scholars, Brexit and Beyond offers and by Edited Futures of Europe an explicitly regional and future-oriented perspective missing from many existing analyses. It charts the significance and likely effects of Brexit across a range of areas, including institutional Uta Staiger relations, political economy, law and justice, foreign affairs, democratic governance, and the idea of Europe itself. Whilst the contributors offer divergent predictions for the future of Europe after Benjamin Martill Brexit, they share the same conviction that careful scholarly analysis is in need – now more than ever – if we are to understand what lies ahead for the EU. Benjamin Martill is a Dahrendorf Fellow in Europe after Brexit at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He was previously Lecturer in Politics at Canterbury Christ Church University and Research Associate at the UCL European Institute. Edited by Uta Staiger is the co-founder and Executive Director of the UCL European Institute. She also holds Benjamin Martill the position of Pro-Vice-Provost (Europe), a strategic role shaping UCL’s engagement with Europe. Uta Staiger Cover image: erhui1979 / iStock Free open access versions available from Cover design: www.ucl.ac.uk/ucl-press www.ironicitalics.com Brexit and Beyond Brexit and Beyond Rethinking the Futures of Europe Edited by Benjamin Martill and Uta Staiger First published in 2018 by UCL Press University College London Gower Street London WC1E 6BT Available to download free: www.ucl.ac.uk/ ucl- press Text © Contributors, 2018 Images © Contributors and copyright holders named in the captions, 2018 The authors have asserted their rights under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 to be identified as the authors of this work. A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from The British Library. This book is published under a Creative Commons 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0). This license allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work; to adapt the work and to make commercial use of the work providing attribution is made to the authors (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). Attribution should include the following information: Martill, B. and Staiger, U. (eds). 2018. Brexit and Beyond: Rethinking the Futures of Europe. London: UCL Press. DOI: https:// doi.org/ 10.14324/ 111.9781787352759 Further details about Creative Commons licenses are available at http:// creativecommons.org/ licenses/ ISBN: 978–1–78735–277–3 (Hbk) ISBN: 978–1–78735–276–6 (Pbk) ISBN: 978–1–78735–275–9 (PDF) ISBN: 978–1–78735–278–0 (epub) ISBN: 978–1–78735–279–7 (mobi) ISBN: 978–1–78735–280–3 (html) DOI: https:// doi.org/ 10.14324/ 111.9781787352759 For our families – British and European alike Acknowledgements This book would never have seen the light of day without the assistance, support and advice offered to us by our colleagues and friends at UCL and UCL Press. Our colleagues at the UCL European Institute offered help and advice from the moment we started working on the project. In particular we would like to thank Claudia Sternberg, Christine Reh, Piet Eeckhout and Richard Bellamy, who were instrumental in drumming up support for the project within the European Studies community, and whose efforts ensured the final product would be comprehensive in its cover- age of the discipline. We are also much indebted to Oliver Patel for his tireless administrative and intellectual support, both on the book itself and on the various other projects the writing of the volume foisted upon him. We would also like to thank the members of the European Institute’s Advisory Board, who followed the book’s progress with much interest and encouraged us that there was substantial demand for such a volume in the policy world. The Chair of the Board, Sir John Birch, is particularly deserving of our gratitude for his longstanding commitment to the work of the European Institute, his keen interest in the volume and his helpful insights on its content and audience. The book has benefited immensely from the helpful staff at UCL Press. We are grateful in particular to Tim Mathews, who first floated the idea of a book on Brexit, and to our editor, Chris Penfold, who has advised on and overseen the process from start to finish. We would also like to thank the two anonymous referees appointed by UCL Press, whose constructive and detailed comments helped us to structure the volume and finesse the arguments therein. Above all, however, we are grateful to all of our contributing authors, who have lent their expertise and their intellect to this project and whose timely and insightful contributions are the very essence of this book. Finally, vii we would like to thank our families – to whom we have dedicated this book – for their support and patience over the many months whilst we brought the project together. Benjamin Martill and Uta Staiger London November 2017 viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Contents Figures and table xii Abbreviations xiii Contributors xv Introduction: Brexit and beyond 1 Benjamin Martill and Uta Staiger Part One Actors and institutions I: Brexit and the UK 1. Cameron’s European legacy: How Brexit demonstrates the flawed politics of simple solutions 22 Andrew Glencross 2. Brexit and the improvised constitution 28 Albert Weale 3. Is the EU ‘a crap 1950s idea’?: Dominic Cummings, branching histories and the case for Leave 37 Glyn Morgan 4. How British was the Brexit vote? 46 Gráinne de Búrca II: Europe’s institutional order 5. Brexit: Yet another crisis for the EU 54 Neill Nugent 6. The implications of Brexit for the future of Europe 63 Michelle Cini and Amy Verdun 7. Decentralised federalism: A new model for the EU 72 Simon Hix 8. Seven Brexit propositions: Towards a Union that protects 81 Luuk van Middelaar ix III: The Member States 9. Britain’s singular other: Germany and the Brexit crisis 88 William E. Paterson 10. France, Britain and Brexit 97 Helen Drake 11. Brexit and Ireland: Collateral damage? 105 Nicholas Wright 12. Something new under the sun?: The lessons of Algeria and Greenland 114 Kiran Klaus Patel Part Two Issues and policies IV: The political economy of Europe 13. What impact will Brexit have on the euro area? 124 Waltraud Schelkle 14. The Brexit iceberg 132 Chris Bickerton 15. The new crisis of ungovernability 138 Abby Innes V: Law and justice 16. The ties that bind: Securing information- sharing after Brexit 148 Deirdre Curtin 17. Citizenship and free movement in a changing EU: Navigating an archipelago of contradictions 156 Jo Shaw 18. The Emperor has no clothes: Brexit and the UK constitution 165 Piet Eeckhout VI: Europe in the world 19. Britain against the world?: Foreign and security policy in the ‘age of Brexit’ 174 Amelia Hadfield x CONTENTS 20. Turning back the clock: The illusion of a global political role for Britain 183 Christopher Hill 21. A speculation on the future of Europe 193 John R. Gillingham VII: Democracy and legitimacy 22. Whither the 27? 204 Michael Shackleton 23. Sustainable integration in a demoicratic polity: A new (or not so new) ambition for the EU after Brexit 212 Kalypso Nicolaïdis 24. Losing control: Brexit and the demoi- cratic disconnect 222 Richard Bellamy VIII: The idea of Europe 25. The heart of the matter: Emotional politics in the new Europe 230 Uta Staiger 26. Square peg, round hole: Why the EU can’t fix identity politics 239 Turkuler Isiksel 27. Fair Brexit for a just Europe 251 Philippe Van Parijs Conclusion 28. Rethinking the futures of Europe 260 Uta Staiger and Benjamin Martill Notes 266 Bibliography 273 Index 291 CONTENTS xi Figures and table Figure 7.1 Support for populist parties in national elections in EU Member States (Hix & Benedetto 2017) 75 Table 7.1 Institutional design options for the EU 76 Figure 13.1 UK exports, imports and trade balance to EU and non- EU countries 130 xii Abbreviations AFSJ Area of Freedom, Security and Justice CAP Common Agricultural Policy CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy CJEU Court of Justice of the European Union CSDP Common Security and Defence Policy CTA Common Travel Area DExEU Department for Exiting