The Diaries The view from the voters

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BritainThinks | Private and Confidential The Brexit Diaries

Weekly diary January → Article 50

General Election 18 April → 8 June

100 people In 10 locations

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 2 1. Leavers and Remainers split into four voter segments

2. Economic issues are central, but outweighed for many

3. Expectations for a ‘good deal’ are low, but for life after the EU are sky high

4. Leave voters are ‘on-message’ but Remainers lack a competing narrative

5. The General Election may have re-engaged remainers

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 3 1. Leavers and Remainers split into four voter segments

2. Economic issues are central, but outweighed for many

3. Expectations for a ‘good deal’ are low, but for life after the EU are sky high

4. Leave voters are ‘on-message’ but remainers lack a competing narrative

5. The General Election may have re-engaged remainers

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 4 Leavers and Remainers see the world very differently…

Leave Remain

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 5 …but there are actually four different attitudes towards Brexit

Accepting Die-hards pragmatists

Devastated Cautious optimists pessimists

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 6 For “die-hards”, Brexit has been life-changing

“For most of my adult life, certainly in the past 20 years, I’ve felt an impotent rage that nothing could change. But now it has.”

“So much news makes me too angry to read, • Feel vindicated by Brexit such as the liberal elite railing against democracy because they don't agree with • Very unwilling to accept that there could be leaving the EU and using their wealth to take any negative consequences their petulance to the Courts.”

• Driven by righteous indignation and urgency “I texted all my friends – Happy Brexit Day!”

• Extreme concern, bordering on paranoia, about any attempt to “derail” Brexit

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 7 “Cautious optimists” have concerns, but no regrets

“I heard on the radio that the government have voted to start the motion for Brexit. I feel relieved they’ve made a decision finally, but worried about changes.”

• Still believe Brexit is best for Britain “I’m a bit happy and a bit nervous too • Very confused about the process because we don’t know what’s coming next.”

• Worried about uncertainty of outcome and division

• However, winning on sovereignty and immigration outweighs these concerns

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 8 “Accepting pragmatists” want to move on

“’s speech lifted my hopes and perhaps it’s not all doom and gloom.”

• Initially disappointed, but have come to terms “I feel nervous, but the decision with result and are resigned to it – no longer full has been made – I just hope it of anguish will work out ok in the end.” • Now want best Brexit for Britain

• Concerned about future generations

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 9 “Devastated pessimists” are still very much opposed to the result

“Theresa May’s speech angered me because I still believe that Brexit will not be of benefit to this country and that a lot of people voted to Leave based on invalid opinions.”

“I just wish it wasn’t happening. I’m as • Cannot see any positives gutted as ever about it.” • Many are bitter about the new political establishment

• Believe that Leave voters have been duped

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 10 Most people are at either end of the spectrum

None 4% 37% 16% 14% 30%

Older Middle-aged Younger Lower SEG Younger Women Higher SEG Semi-urban / Higher SEG Lower SEG Metropolitan rural

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 11 Very little has changed since Article 50

None 4% 19 March 37% 16% 14% 30% 2017

5% 1 June 38% 18% 12% 27% 2017

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 12 And there are still deep splits across society

Age Socio-economic grade

Overall 37% 16% 14% 30% Overall 37% 16% 14% 30%

18-24 13% 14% 23% 45%

AB 29% 12% 19% 36% 25-34 20% 17% 15% 41%

35-44 32% 14% 13% 33% C1 34% 15% 16% 31%

45-54 38% 19% 13% 25% C2 43% 19% 8% 27%

55-64 50% 16% 10% 22%

DE 43% 17% 10% 23% 65+ 56% 13% 11% 19%

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 13 1. Leavers and Remainers split into four voter segments

2. Economic issues are central, but outweighed for many

3. Expectations for a ‘good deal’ are low, but for life after the EU are sky high

4. Leave voters are ‘on-message’ but remainers lack a competing narrative

5. The General Election may have re-engaged remainers

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 14 Most are increasingly resigned to Brexit meaning higher inflation

• Concern about rising prices is mentioned as the most significant concern about Brexit by all segments, together with job losses and higher taxes

• Higher prices is the only negative consequence they have so far experienced personally – both in terms of increased shopping bills and more expensive holidays

“There will probably be an “Like most people I’m “I’m not sure [how much increase in the price of worried what everyday it will cost], but it is more everything and there’s “It will cost me far more prices will be affected likely to cost me than nothing we can do to stop money on goods. I don’t by leaving.” save me money.” it.” think I will save anything.”

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 15 …but price increases are viewed with scepticism by all segments

• Price increases are widely seen as cynical and opportunist – blame falls on individual companies rather than the government

• Blaming Brexit for price increases rarely seen as credible, particularly at this early stage in the process – seen as “betrayal” and “greedy”

“I don’t know about the “They were very quick to “The companies are “It’s very sad that these logistics but shame on increase prices, and not taking advantage and companies have to them if they are clear on their justification. being greedy… Brexit make money from increasing prices on a I’m less keen on the should not be an excuse scaremongering.” forecast instead of facts.” company.” to push up prices.”

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 16 …while job news is viewed as unrelated to Brexit

• Many link news of jobs moving to the EU to wider global economic forces, unrelated to Brexit • Frequently viewed with a sense of resignation and powerlessness • Seen as part of being a savvy business

• Devastated pessimists and accepting pragmatists are both concerned about job losses – Leave voters much less so.

“We live in a very flexible “Vodafone will go wherever “This will be particularly world and companies move it’s cheapest, regardless of bad for the economy, so I for various reasons. It may Brexit. There’s not much do hope this won’t be the not have anything to do with we can do.” case.” Brexit.”

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 17 Trade is very important for all segments

“I don’t think trade “There is vast • All segments except for die-hards cite continuing to trade with the EU will be trade to be with the EU as important – and all except devastated lower after Brexit.” done with the pessimists are optimistic that we will. US.”

• Die-hards are more likely to reject a future relationship with the EU entirely and focus on trade with the rest of the world.

• All segments see the ability to trade with new countries as a major advantage of Brexit.

• The terms ‘Single Market’ and ‘Customs Union’ are poorly understood and rarely mentioned.

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 18 But all economic considerations are outweighed for Leavers

• For Leave voters, the opportunities to control immigration and restore ‘sovereignty’ were the main drivers of their vote

Economy Immigration • Economic issues are acknowledged, but both ‘die-hards’ and ‘cautious optimists’ say that Sovereignty they matter less than ‘control’

• ‘’ not being seen to be true makes many optimistic about the economy

• This may change over time – however significant and directly attributable effects would be necessary.

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 19 1. Leavers and Remainers split into four voter segments

2. Economic issues are central, but outweighed for many

3. Expectations for a ‘good deal’ are low, but for life after the EU are sky high

4. Leave voters are ‘on-message’ but remainers lack a competing narrative

5. The General Election may have re-engaged remainers

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 20 Expectations of a ‘good deal’ are low…

Perceived likelihood of getting a good deal Average rating among Average rating among “The EU want to be Leave Voters Remain Voters punitive to stop any other country thinking it’s a good 5.0 3.8 idea to leave.” (out of 10) (out of 10)

• All segments blame this on the EU seeking to “punish” the UK “We’ve been on our own before, we can do it • And Leave segments don’t see a deal with the EU as necessary for again – we’re a future success great little country.”

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 21 …but expectations for life after Brexit are sky-high

The Government’s strategy of feeding rather than managing expectations has clearly delivered results…

“I am looking forward to “We can control our it. This is a fantastic “A chance to explore a borders and have our opportunity to rebuild different avenue for own laws, freedom to the country: more Britain. To see whether trade outside the EU “We’ll have complete police, better hospitals, this could make Britain without restriction and control over how our more schools and even more successful.” not pay out vast sums country is run.” teachers.” of money to the EU.”

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 22 …especially on immigration

“Ending immigration was why Brexit “Immigration must be happened – it needs to stopped – no more East be ended if at all Europeans.” possible.”

“Immigration needs “It will be very to go as low as it frustrating if can possibly go.” immigration doesn’t fall dramatically after Brexit.”

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 23 1. Leavers and Remainers split into four voter segments

2. Economic issues are central, but outweighed for many

3. Expectations for a ‘good deal’ are low, but for life after the EU are sky high

4. Leave voters are ‘on-message’ but remainers lack a competing narrative

5. The General Election may have re-engaged remainers

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 24 Remain voters have not been communicated to

“They need us more than we need them.” “No deal is better than a bad deal.” • Leave voters are continually ‘on-message’ “WTO rules will be fine.”

• Remain voters are inconsistent, unsure what they should “I hate what is happening, but think, and persuaded there is no alternative surely that ship has sailed.”

• There is very little understanding about the impact of “What will the outcome be? Presumably Brexit, or how bad it could be we will still trade with the EU and still have free movement?”

• Deal currently seen as take it or leave it – there is no “What happens if the negotiations sense of any alternative course to going ahead. go badly? No going back is frightening.”

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 25 1. Leavers and Remainers split into four voter segments

2. Economic issues are central, but outweighed for many

3. Expectations for a ‘good deal’ are low, but for life after the EU are sky high

4. Leave voters are ‘on-message’ but remainers lack a competing narrative

5. The General Election may have re-engaged remainers

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 26 Theresa May initially framed the election around Brexit

“The question is: who “If it’s 27 against 1, we do we want in charge of need our strongest how we leave?” people at the table.”

“I’ll be voting for strength, “Who is going to be the direction, and who will represent strongest leader to get the UK in the best light possible”. the best deal for us?”

“This is no time for a “We need a strong coalition – we need a person in charge for government with a big the negotiations.” majority to go into the negotiations.”

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 27 …and Brexit did seem to play a role in the result

• Labour did well in seats which were Remain strongholds, with their vote share increasing by 12 points in the strongest voting Remain seats

• There was a small swing to the Conservatives in the seats with the largest Leave vote

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 28 But voters’ fear of coalition means they now expect a bad deal

“I wanted a Conservative majority win so that Brexit talks would go smoothly.”

“Theresa May has significantly weakened her position by calling this election and then running a shambolic campaign.”

“How is a minority government in alliance with the DUP going to handle the ?”

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 29 And confidence in the Government’s negotiating position has fallen

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential 30 Thank you.

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