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Application of Formal Safety Assessment for Dry Docking Evolution

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Application of Formal Safety Assessment for Dry Docking Evolution APPLICATION OF FORMAL SAFETY ASSESSMENT FOR DRY DOCKING EVOLUTION A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of Liverpool John Moores University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy ATEHNJIA DENIS NJUMO December 2015 Acknowledgements This PhD is the result of three years of research conducted since I joined Liverpool LOgistics, Offshore and Marine (LOOM) Research Institute at Liverpool John Moores University (LJMU) in the United Kingdom. During this period I have had the support of a great number of people and organisations. It gives me great pleasure to convey my thanks and sincere gratitude to them in my acknowledgements. First and foremost I would like to thank my supervisor, Professor Zaili Yang, not only for his guidance, advice and supervision, but also for his patience, encouragement and care offered to me whilst completing this thesis. More significantly, his strong commitment and integral views on research and his expectation of ‘high-quality work and nothing less’ have greatly encouraged me. I am indebted to him more than words can express. I wish to extend my sincere thanks to my co-supervisors, Dr. Ramin Rahin and Dr. Karl Jones, as well as to my advisor Professor Jin Wang, who have always provided me with valuable advice by examining the progress of my research. I convey my special acknowledgement to the Commonwealth Scholarship Commission UK through the Ministry of Higher Education and the Direction of Maritime Affairs (Ministry of Transport) Cameroon for sponsoring this PhD research for three and a half years, taking care of all my personal and travelling needs in and out of UK. Without this support, this PhD would not have been completed. For this I am highly appreciative. I would also like to extend my special thanks to DMC Consulting, International Maritime Organization (IMO), Ship Docking Conference (USA), and all other organisations for their advice and support for this thesis including the supply of useful technical data. The support of Royal Institute of Naval Architects (RINA) UK in publishing one of my first paper has given me a great deal of encouragement in pursuing this PhD research. I convey my special acknowledgements to my wife and daughter for their moral support. My parents, sisters and brothers deserve special appreciation for their invaluable guidance and support. I am extraordinarily fortunate to have such a nice family. These acknowledgements would not be complete without thanking many others, including close and good friends, who have directly and indirectly assisted me in many ways to conclude my PhD thesis “Application of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) for Dry Docking Evolution” successfully. i Abstract This research has evaluated the rules, guidelines and regulations related to docking a ship in floating-graving yards. Historical failure data analysis is carried out to identify associated components, equipment and the area of defects related to ship docking evolution problems. The current status of ship docking evolution is reviewed and possible sources which cause accidents are recognised. The major problems identified in this research are associated with risk modelling under circumstances where high levels of uncertainty exist. Following the identification of research needs, this work has developed several analytical models for the application of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). Such models are subsequently demonstrated by their corresponding case studies with regards to application of FSA for ship docking evolution. Firstly, in this research a generic floating-graving docking model is constructed for the purpose of hazard identification and risk estimation. The hazards include various scenarios, identified from literature reviewed as the major contributors to ship docking failures. Then risk estimation is carried out utilising fault tree (FT) – FSA where there is sufficient data. Secondly, with increased lack of data, risk estimation is carried out using FT-Bayesian network (BN) where interdepencies exists amongst identified hazards. This risk estimation method is validated with the appropriate case study identified. Thirdly, fuzzy rule base and evidential reasoning approaches are used for risk estimation in terms of three risk parameters to select the major causes of component failure that can lead to pontoon deck failure in a floating dock. Possible risk control options (RCOs) are introduced, based on their effectiveness, to select the best RCO for minimising the risks. Finally, a cost benefit assessment is conducted to select the best risk control option using BN, where selections are based on economic terms. The four subjective novel FSA application methodologies in ship docking evolution are constructed from existing theoretical techniques and applied to real situations where data collection is otherwise not possible. The construction of the novel methodologies and the case study applications are the major contribution to knowledge in this thesis. It is concluded that the methodologies proposed possess significant potential for the application of FSA for ship docking evolution based on the validations of their corresponding case studies, which may also be applied with domain specification knowledge tailored to facilitate FSA application in other shipping industry sectors. ii Table of Contents Acknowledgements..………………………………………………………………………..........................i Abstract……………………………………………………….…………………………………………….ii Table of Contents………………...……….……………………………………..…..……………………..iii List of Tables………….……………………………………………………….........................................xiv List of Figures………………………..…………….………………………………………….................xvii Abbrevations………………………..…………….…………………………………………………….…xx Chapter 1 Introduction...……………………………………………………………………………….…1 Summary……………………………………………………………….………………………………..….1 1.1 Background Analysis……………………………………………………….…………………………..1 1.2 Research Aims and Objectives………………………….……………………………………..…..……2 1.3 Challenges of Conducting this Research…..………………………………………………………........3 1.4 Research Methodology and Scope of Thesis………………………..…………….……………………4 1.4.1 Introduction and literature review………………………..……………………….…………….…….5 1.4.2 Fault tree –formal safety assessment in dry docking evolution…………………………………........5 1.4.3 An advance fault tree - Bayesian networking approach for risk analysis……….…………………....7 1.4.4 Fuzzy rule base with belief degree for risk analysis in dry docking operation….………...………….8 1.4.5 Risk control options and cost benefit analysis in dry docking operatioin…….….……......……..….10 1.5 Structure of PhD Thesis………………………………………………………..….………...……..….10 Chapter 2 Literature Review….………………………………………………………………………….......11 Summary……………………………………………………………….………………………………….11 2.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………11 2.2 Review of Failures in Floating-Graving Docking Systems………………………….…………..……13 2.3 Floating-Graving Docking Systems…..…………………………………...………………………......15 2.3.1 Shipbuilding and ship repair yards...……………………..……………………….…………………15 iii 2.3.2 Background on graving dock………………………………………..……………………………....16 2.3.3 Background on floating dry dock……………………………………………………………………17 2.3.4 Layout of ship repair yards……………………………………………...……………………….….17 2.3.5 Trends in the ship repairing industry……………………………………………………...………...18 2.3.6 Factors making ship repairing more efficient……………………………………………………….19 2.3.7 Factors affecting the selection of a dry dock system…………………………………………….….19 2.3.8 The economics of docking a vessel………………………………………………………………….21 2.3.9 The ship dry docking specification..………………..……………………………………………….21 2.3.9.1 Shipyard docking plan……….….…………………………………………………………………21 2.3.9.2 Accuracy factors……….……..…………………………………………………………………....22 2.3.9.3 Top level dry dock specification………...………………..…………………………..……...……23 2.4 Critical Review on Risk Asssessment Methods………………….....………………………………....24 2.4.1 Failiure mode identification…..…...…………...……….………………...….…………...………....24 2.4.2 Failure modes and effects analysis…..………………...……………...….…………….…………....25 2.4.3 Fault tree analysis and petri nets…..………………...…….………………...….…………...……....25 2.4.4 Bayesian network…..…………………………….………..…………...….…………………….......26 2.4.5 Floating-graving dock response…..…….………..………..…………………...….………………...27 2.4.6 Consequence analysis of docking accidents…….…………………...............................…...……....27 2.4.7 Assigning probabilities…..…………….………………………………...….…………..……...…....27 2.4.8 Limitation on regulation………..…..…….………..………..…………………...….………….…....28 2.4.9 Risk assessment methods used in dry docking operations…….……….......................………..........28 2.4.10 Review on the importance of applying novel risk assesment methods………………….………....31 2.5 Data Collection and Accident Reports…………...…..………..…………………...….……………....32 2.5.1 Typical shipyard accidents…………………..…….…………………...............................………....32 2.5.1.1 Jurong shipyard accident…..…………….…………………………...….…………..……….........32 2.5.1.2 Subic bay accident…...…..…………….………………………………...….…………..………....33 2.5.1.3 Tulza shipyard strikes.…..…………….………………………………...….…………..………....33 iv 2.5.1.4 Union naval de Lavante accident…..……….…………………………...….…………..………....33 2.6 FSA Applied to the Shipping Industry………………………..………………………….……………34 2.6.1 Characteristics of FSA in the dry docking industry…………………………………………………35 2.6.2 FSA in other organisations...…..…………………………...………...…………………...………....36 2.6.3 Implication of the application of FT-FSA……………………………………….…………..………37 2.6.4 Factors affecting the implementation of FT-FSA……………………………………………...……37 2.6.5 Risk
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