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Analysis of the Water-Power Nexus of the Balkan Peninsula Power System

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Analysis of the water-power nexus of the Balkan Peninsula power system Contract C.B686564/2017024747 Stunjek, G., Krajačić, G. Editors: Medarac, H., Hidalgo González, I. 2020 EUR 30093 EN This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Contact information Name: Hrvoje Medarac Address: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Westerduinweg 3, 1755 LE, Netherlands Email: [email protected] Tel.: +31 224 56 5224 EU Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc JRC119436 EUR 30093 EN PDF ISBN 978-92-76-10723-1 ISSN 1831-9424 doi: 10.2760/781058 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020 © European Union, 2020 The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Except otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. All content © European Union, 2020, except: cover image, ©zatletic, Adobe Stock and as referenced below figures throughout the report. How to cite this report: Stunjek, G. and Krajacic, G., Analysis of the water-power nexus of the Balkan Peninsula power system, Medarac, H. and Hidalgo Gonzalez, I. editor(s), EUR 30093 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2020, ISBN 978-92-76- 10723-1 (online), doi:10.2760/781058 (online), JRC119436. Contents Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Climate change and hydropower production .................................................................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Literature review .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 2 Drainage Basins on Balkan Peninsula ................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 3 The power system in the Balkan Peninsula ..................................................................................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Hydropower in Balkan Peninsula .................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 4 Modelling framework ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 5 Scenario definition ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 13 6 Model Results ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 14 6.1 Results from the Dispa-SET Medium-Term Hydrothermal Coordination model .......................................................... 14 6.2 Results from Dispa-SET Unit Commitment and Dispatch model ............................................................................................... 20 6.3 Impact of cooling of thermal power plants and hydropower operation on water resources .......................... 26 6.3.1 Water withdrawal and consumption .................................................................................................................................................... 27 6.3.2 Water stress index ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 29 7 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35 References ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 36 List of figures ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41 List of tables ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 43 Annexes .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45 Annex 1: Overview of the drainage basins in the Balkan Peninsula ..................................................................................................... 45 Annex 2: Overview of the power system in Balkan Peninsula .................................................................................................................... 57 Annex 3: Input Data ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 78 Annex 4: Power dispatch ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 96 i Acknowledgements This report has been prepared by The Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture of The University of Zagreb (UniZG-FAMENA) for the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, under service contract C.B686564, therefore the content of this study does not reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Responsibility for the information and views expressed in the study lies entirely with the authors. The authors benefited from the following contributions: — related to the LISFLOOD model: Marko Adamovic (EC-JRC) — related to the Dispa-SET model and power system-related questions: o KU Leuven: Matija Pavičević o University of Zagreb: Hrvoje Dorotić, Antun Pfeifer o EC-JRC: Hrvoje Medarac, Matteo De Felice, Ignacio Hidalgo González, Iratxe Gonzalez Aparicio, Sebastian Busch Authors [University of Zagreb, The Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture] Stunjek, G., Krajačić, G. Editors [European Commission, Joint Research Centre] Medarac, H., Hidalgo González, I. 1 Abstract The operation and economics of the power systems are constrained by the availability and temperature of water resources since thermal power plants need water for cooling and hydropower plants need water to generate electricity. In Europe and North America, water shortages or high river
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