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1 Chapter II the STATE of HUMAN DEVELOPMENT in SOUTHEAST ASIA

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1 Chapter II the STATE of HUMAN DEVELOPMENT in SOUTHEAST ASIA 1 Chapter II THE STATE OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: PROGRESS AND DISPARITIES (PRELIMINARY DRAFT) INTRODUCTION This chapter examines the progress and disparities of Southeast Asian countries on a set of human development and good governance indicators. It uses data from various sources, notably the global Human Development Reports from 1990-2003, Asian Development Outlook, and Kaufmann, Kraay, and Mastruzzi (2003). It also examines the disparities among countries in the region across these indicators and the correlation between these indicators in the context of understanding the state of human development and good governance in Southeast Asia. HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: DISPARITIES, TRENDS, ACHIEVEMENTS The state of human development in Southeast Asia could be described as one that is characterized by large disparities across several variables, notably in terms of social and economic indexes, economic performance, and governance indicators. The trend in human development index appear to be generally towards improvement since 1975, but a closer look at disaggregated data on several dimensions indicate more gaps and disparities among countries in the region. Economic performance and good governance indicators also vary significantly, with countries ranked higher in the human development index (HDI) doing better in general. Southeast Asia in the Context of East Asia The disparities among the ten ASEAN member countries must be seen in the larger context of the East Asia region, which includes China, Japan, and South Korea. Taken together as the East Asian 13 (ASEAN + 3), the extreme variations in mean values across six human development indicators among these countries is shown in Table II.1a and II.1b below, most notably in terms of per capita GDP (PPP$), per capita health expenditures, and education- related indexes. Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos are clearly lagging behind the rest of East Asia. Table II.1a shows that the thirteen East Asian countries together have higher coefficients of variation for per capita GDP (PPP$) and per capita health expenditures at 0.98 and 1.27 respectively. Public expenditure on education also has a relatively high coefficient of variation at 0.46 and 0.48 for the years 1990 and 1998-2000 respectively. 2 Table II.1a Human Development Indicators for ASEAN + 3 (East Asia 13) GDP Public Life Per Capita Education per Expenditure on HDI Expectancy Health GDI Index capita Education at birth Expenditure (PPP$) (% of GDP) Countries 1990 2001 2001 2001 2001 1990 1998-2000 2000 2001 Singapore 0.819 0.884 77.8 0.87 22680 -- 3.7 913 0.880 Brunei -- 0.872 76.1 0.89 19210 -- 4.8 618 0.867 Malaysia 0.720 0.79 72.8 0.83 8750 5.2 6.2 310 0.780 Thailand 0.705 0.768 68.9 0.88 6400 3.5 5.4 237 0.766 Philippines 0.713 0.751 69.5 0.90 3840 2.9 4.2 167 0.748 Vietnam 0.603 0.688 68.6 0.83 2070 -- -- 130 0.687 Indonesia 0.619 0.682 66.2 0.80 2940 1.0 -- 84 0.677 Cambodia 0.512 0.556 57.4 0.64 1860 -- 1.9 97 0.551 Myanmar -- 0.549 57.0 0.72 1027 -- 0.5 24 -- Laos 0.449 0.525 53.9 0.63 1620 -- 2.3 52 0.518 Japan 0.906 0.932 81.3 0.94 25130 -- 3.5 2009 0.926 S. Korea 0.814 0.879 75.2 0.96 15090 3.5 3.8 899 0.873 China 0.624 0.721 70.6 0.79 4020 2.3 2.1 205 0.718 Mean 0.680 0.738 68.87 0.822 8818.23 3.07 3.49 441.92 0.750 STD 0.14 0.14 8.41 0.10 8661.37 1.40 1.68 561.23 0.13 CV 0.20 0.18 0.12 0.13 0.98 0.46 0.48 1.27 0.17 Source: HDR 2003 Table II.1b Average Values for Social and Economic Indicators ASEAN + 3 (China, Japan, South Korea) or East Asia 13 China/Indonesia Japan Social and Economic Malaysia Cambodia South Korea Indicators Philippines Myanmar Singapore Thailand Laos Brunei Vietnam Human Development Index 0.892 0.730 0.540 (2001) Per Capita GDP (PPP$, 2001) 20,527 4,670 1,502 Per Capita Health Expenditures 1,109 188.83 57.67 Education Index 0.915 0.840 0.660 Public Expenditure on Education 4.0 4.48 1.57 (% of GDP) Gender-related Development Index 0.887 0.730 0.540 Source: HDR 2003 3 In terms of per capita GDP (PPP$), the disparity between the high HDI and medium HDI countries in East Asia is also very large. Specifically, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Brunei’s combined average per capita GDP (PPP$) is five times more than the combined average of China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam and roughly thirteen times more than those of Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos. East Asia vis-à-vis Europe In contrast, the 33 countries of Europe, as shown in Table II.2, fare better in terms of disparities among the same set of indicators. The high HDI countries (EU-15) of the region only has a little more than twice the average per capita GDP (PPP$) of the medium HDI countries (Accession-11), and a little over ten times more than the lower medium HDI countries (CIS-7). Table II.2 Average Values of Social and Economic Indicators Various Groups of European Countries Social and Economic EU-15 Accession-11 CIS-7 Indicators Human Development Index 0.924 0.835 0.722 (2001) Per Capita GDP (PPP$, 2001) 26,447 11,443 2,404 Per Capita Health Expenditures 2,064 660 110 Education Index 0.966 0.925 0.887 Public Expenditure on Education (% of GDP) 5.35 5.07 3.7 Gender-related Development Index 0.920 0.833 0.706 Source: HDR 2003 The significant disparities between East Asia and Europe is also shown in Table II.3, which summarizes the mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation measures for the two regions across HDI and per capita GDP (PPP$). The coefficient of variation in HDI of Europe 33 is only 9.7 percent while that of East Asia 13 is almost twice that of the former, or 18.4 percent. ASEAN 10 has a coefficient of variation twice that of Europe 33. 4 In terms of per capital GDP (PPP$), East Asia has a higher coefficient of variation (98.2%) than Europe (71.6%). Even much higher coefficient of variation is noticeable for ASEAN 10 countries for per capita GDP, which stands at 109%. Table II.3 Summary Measures for Europe 33, East Asia 13, and ASEAN 10 Social and Economic Standard Coefficient Mean Indicators Deviation of Variation (%) HDI (2001) Europe 33 0.851 0.082 9.7 HDI (2001) East Asia 13 0.738 0.135 18.4 HDI (2001) ASEAN 10 0.707 0.130 19.0 Per Capita GDP (PPP$, 2001) Europe 33 16,359 11,714 71.6 Per Capita GDP (PPP$, 2001) East Asia 13 8,818 8,661 98.2 Per Capita GDP (PPP$, 2001) ASEAN 10 7,040 7,747 109.0 In general, Europe has a much higher level of human development than East Asia, which could be attributed primarily to its longer process of development. Disparities between higher income and lower income countries is more pronounced in East Asia than in Europe, even as one scholar noted that the process of convergence is very strong in EU and non- existent in Southeast Asia (Karras 1997). Much of the strength of EU’s convergence could be attributed to its more rigid and institutionalized integration process. Meanwhile, the lack of convergence among countries in Southeast Asia apparently serves as a major obstacle to more effective regional cooperation and integration. Clustering Southeast Asian Countries on HD Indicators The state of human development in Southeast Asia could be characterized mainly as one with wide disparities across countries in the region based on a set of social and economic indicators. The ten countries of Southeast Asia may be clustered together into four groups based on their HDI rankings and six other human development indicators as summarized in Table II.4. Singapore and Brunei – the smallest countries in the region both in terms of population and geographic size – rank the highest in terms of the seven indicators (HDI, life, education, GDP, human poverty index, gender 5 development index, and gender empowerment measures). These two countries fall in the “high human development” category based on HDI rank, life expectancy, education, and GDP values, which are closer to that of Japan and South Korea in East Asia and to some developed countries in the European Union. Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines belong to a second cluster of upper “medium human development” countries in the region that may appear to have a wider range of difference in their HDI ranking but are essentially much closer and less variant in terms of life, education, and GDP indexes. Vietnam and Indonesia belong to a third category, which may be called medium “medium human development” countries. Although they appear to have a big difference in terms of HDI ranking, their life, education, and GDP indexes are much closer. Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos belong to the last group of countries (lower “medium human development”) in the region whose HDI ranking, life, education, and GDP indexes are quite close. These countries also have a higher level of human poverty index (HPI) relative to the other Southeast Asian countries, most notably Cambodia and Laos.
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