Will Kowloon See a Central2 After CBD2?
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OFFICE MARKET INSIGHTSJULY 2019 Will Kowloon see a Central2 after CBD2? West Kowloon Terminal Site to Act as a Catalyst West Kowloon Terminal Site Kowloon has always been considered the lower-cost alternative for office space compared to Hong Kong Island, with average rents 30-50% lower than those across the harbour. The area has also been largely avoided by the banking & finance and Kowloon's professional services sectors. However, in the last few years, the Government has future begun shifting commercial activities to the Kowloon side with its CBD2 concept, spurring great change in the area. developement to be Central2 Apart from the CBD2 concept, the hottest topic for Kowloon’s future development is now a newer concept known as “Central2” – whereby people are expecting the commercial site atop the West Kowloon Express Rail terminal to convert Kowloon’s core district Tsim Sha Tsui (TST) into the second Central of Hong Kong. This commercial site is not only the largest of the 2019-2020 land sale programme, but also the largest of its kind in recent decades. With area of approximately 5.96 hectare, the site will be home to three office towers providing up to 3.21 million sq ft, land SALE Largest with 2.8 million of office space, making it bigger than the International Financial Centre Commercial complex (2 million sq ft) and of similar size to the nearby International Commercial Centre (2.3 million sq ft). site for sale in 2019-20 Projected to be the first land sale $100 in Hong Kong to surpass BILLION HK$100 billion million sq ft 2.8 office space among major occupiers in the TST area. among majoroccupiers inthe TST sector banking andfinanceafast-developing to in2018andelevated 35.23% thatto a figure rose of majoroccupiers partof intheKowloon, central just26.58% banking andfinance accounted for In2016, continues pattern progress. to This further with theirlineoffices. front andconsolidating expanding now andare the area longbeen in present whomhave banks, Taiwanese and Japanese andmore alsoseeing more are we area, Inthe TST strategies. estate real term respective long- consolidation inthe companies’ of large-scale offices, aresult front JPMorgan’s Citibank hometo isnow and CBD2area The office Kowloon. Island front to companies relocatingmore their HongKong thisand see ischangingaswe more However, has located inKowloon. onlybackupoperations in the sectors tenant market, the highest-budget oneof the Banking&Finance industry, date, To alsoChanging Kowloon in MixTrend Tenant office absorption. Grade-A premium ofand isanother the good area’s example buildingcurrently hasless than 1%vacancy The HK$143per to sqftnet. about 70%,this translates of efficiency rate Considering the building’s gross. HK$100per of sqft roughly seeing anaverage International Commerce Centreisalso Meanwhile, office buildingsinKowloon. Grade-A premium reflects thepotential for strong 1).This (see figure per month of about 9.8% absorption rate average good seeing thean response from market, the buildinghascontinued a receive 2016, to Since MizuhoBanktook inOctober residence transactions. office Kowloon for per sqftnet,anall-time record HK$157 to HK$118up to equivalent per sqftgross, signed for was sqftgross 3,000 building of roughly inthe arecentlease HK$133 per sqft.Mostnotably, to this converts figure 75%efficiencyrate, roughly HK$100 per sqft.Considering that the building’s office of over rent withaverage gross K11 Atelier, isthe completed newly sq ft.Onesuchexample HK$100per of over rent gross building achieve than hasseen one more Kowloon in recent years profile, low-rent of free itstraditional Breaking inKowloon Potential Rent Island’s Grade-A and premium Grade-A market. Grade-A andpremium Grade-A Island’s of the HongKong upto level buildingswith reaching more netrent seen several then willhave by Kowloon inKowloon. Further, achievable thenofHK$190iscertainly upto netrent quality, new-building for be isexpected to a5%premium site completed, plussay commercial terminal Kowloon whenthe West between and2025, per now year HK$150per of sqftnet,then roughly building rent assuming3%inflation Grade-A premium average Given location andquality”. “strategic to cost” “lower from istransforming suggests that the market This Kowloon Source: andOccupancy ChangeinK11 Atelier Vacancy FIGURE 1 Tenant MixDistribution in2018-19 Tenant FIGURE 3 MixDistribution in2016-17 Tenant FIGURE 2 Apparel & Accessories & Apparel Electronics &IT&T 4 2 3 4 2 3 1 1 Beauty &Fotness Beauty &Fitness 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ’000 sqft Prof. Services Prof. Knight Frank Research Frank Knight Sourcing Insurance Oct-16 Insurance 5.68% 5.68% Sourcing 11.26% 10.23% 8.56% Others 6.76% 7.66% 7.66% 9.09% Others 6.82% Nov-16 Dec-16 5.68% Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Vacancy Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 4.95% Accessories & Apparel 13.06% Services Prof. 13.51% Medical Care 26.58% Banking &Finance 4.55% Co-Working 17.05% Medical Care 35.23% Banking &Finance Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Leased Area Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Short & Long Term Differences The West Kowloon terminal site will likely be the first in Hong Kong history to surpass HK$100 billion land price, assuming a mid-range figure of up to HK$30,000 per sq ft. Adding an estimated HK$100 billion in development costs, the total consideration of the parcel could reach as much as HK$200 billion. The huge potential impact of the project leaves us very optimistic that it will catalyze the whole of Kowloon into a new commercial hub – a “Central2” formation, in addition to the CBD2 concept. In fact, if net rent can reach up to HK$190 per sq ft, as deduced above, then over HK$200 billion the mature yield is still over 3.5% - a very reasonable return compared to today’s investment vehicles. The biggest limitation is the huge amount of capital involved that will likely push developers to form conglomerates or joint ventures through which to bid and run. Kowloon’s short-term prospects, however, are not as optimistic as those of the long-term, particularly given the limited stimulus as well as economic and political concerns. Market Outlook Our housing forecasts for the second half of 2019 remain rather conservative at a 1-3% rental increase, despite our highly optimistic long-term view of a maturing West Kowloon. The recent forfeiture of deposit by Goldin Group on the awarded Kai Tak commercial site has revealed the shaken confidence of some developers in the short- to mid-run amid looming political and economic uncertainty. There are still more adjustments coming in the Kowloon market before a new upward trend is expected to develop based on the “Central2” concept becoming more widely recognised and accepted. KOWLOON OFFICE SERVICES © Knight Frank 2019 This document and the material contained in it is general information only and is subject to change without notice. All images Patrick Mak (E-187858) are for illustration only. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. 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