Assessment of Anthropogenic Threats to Marine Protected Areas in Victoria

Home , Mud Islands, Portsea Hole

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Assessment of anthropogenic threats to marine protected areas in Victoria

Professor Gregory Jenkins

July 2013

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Contents

Executive Summary ...... 5

Introduction ...... 8

Objective of this report ...... 9

Materials and Methods ...... 10

Analysis ...... 11

Information sources ...... 11

Results ...... 15

Comparison of significant threats across MPAs, bioregions and time frames ...... 15

5-Year time frame ...... 15

60-Year time frame ...... 16

Comparison of total threat scores across MPAs and attributes ...... 18

Comparison of risk assessment (Method 2) with threat (consequence) assessment (Method 1) for two MPAs ...... 18

Discussion and Conclusions ...... 29

Acknowledgements ...... 30

References ...... 31

Appendix A. Threat Assessment Tables ...... 33

Threat assessment of the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP ...... 33 Threat assessment of the Mud Islands segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP ...... 39 Threat assessment of the Point Nepean segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP ...... 45 Threat assessment of the Point Lonsdale segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP ...... 51 Threat assessment of the Popes Eye/Portsea Hole segments of the Port Phillip Heads MNP ...... 57 Threat assessment of the Point Cooke MS ...... 59 Threat assessment of the Jawbone MS ...... 65 Threat assessment of the Ricketts Point MS ...... 71 Threat assessment of the Yaringa MNP ...... 77 Threat assessment of the French Island MNP ...... 83 Threat assessment of the Churchill Island MNP ...... 89 Threat assessment of the Corner Inlet MNP ...... 95 Threat assessment of the Corner Inlet MCP ...... 101 Threat assessment of the Nooramunga MCP ...... 107 Threat assessment of the Shallow Inlet MCP ...... 113 Threat assessment of the Discovery Bay MNP ...... 119 Threat assessment of the Twelve Apostles MNP ...... 125

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Threat assessment of the Merri MS ...... 131 Threat assessment of The Arches MS ...... 137 Threat assessment of the Point Addis MNP ...... 143 Threat assessment of the Bunurong MNP ...... 149 Threat assessment of the Marengo MS ...... 155 Threat assessment of the Eagle Rock MS ...... 161 Threat assessment of the Point Danger MS ...... 167 Threat assessment of the Barwon Bluff MS ...... 173 Threat assessment of the Mushroom Reef MS ...... 179 Threat assessment of the Wilsons Promontory MNP ...... 185 Threat assessment of the 90 Mile Beach MNP ...... 191 Threat assessment of the Point Hicks MNP ...... 197 Threat assessment of the Cape Howe MNP ...... 203 Threat assessment of the Beware Reef MS ...... 209 Threat assessment of the Port Phillip Bay sedimentary basin ...... 215 Threat assessment of the Bonney upwelling region ...... 219

Appendix B. Risk Assessment Tables...... 225

Risk assessment for the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP ...... 225 Risk assessment for the Merri MS ...... 233

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

List of Figures

Figure 1. Total threat scores for Victorian Marine Protected Areas and significant regional processes ...... 28

List of Tables

Table 1. Consequence rating definitions for the three potential attributes for any marine asset ...... 13

Table 2. Data quality categories and associated definitions ...... 13

Table 3. Probability ranges associated with Likelihood scores ...... 14

Table 4. Risk scores for all combinations of Likelihood and Consequence ...... 14

Table 5. Range of risk scores associated with each risk category ...... 14

Table 6. Moderate (yellow), Major (orange) and Catastrophic (red) consequences in the embayments bioregion – 5 year horizon ...... 20

Table 7. Moderate (yellow), Major (orange) and Catastrophic (red) consequences in the embayments bioregion – 60 year horizon (where different to the 5 year horizon) ...... 21

Table 8. Moderate (yellow), Major (orange) and Catastrophic (red) consequences in the Otway/Central bioregions – 5 year horizon ...... 22

Table 9. Moderate (yellow), Major (orange) and Catastrophic (red) consequences in the Otway/Central bioregions – 60 year horizon (where different to the 5 year horizon) ...... 23

Table 10. Moderate (yellow), Major (orange) and Catastrophic (red) consequences in the Flinders/Twofold bioregions – 5 year horizon ...... 24

Table 11. Moderate (yellow), Major (orange) and Catastrophic (red) consequences in the Flinders/Twofold bioregions – 60 year horizon (where different to the 5 year horizon) ...... 25

Table 12. Medium (yellow), High (orange) and Extreme (red) risks for two marine protected areas – 5 year horizon ...... 26

Table 13. Medium (yellow), High (orange) and Extreme (red) risks for two marine protected areas – 60 year horizon (where different to the 5 year horizon) ...... 27

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Executive Summary The Victorian Environmental Assessment Council (VEAC) is currently undertaking an investigation into the outcomes of the establishment of Victoria's existing marine protected areas. One of the purposes of the investigation is to examine and provide assessment of any ongoing threats or challenges to the effective management of existing marine protected areas, particularly in relation to the biodiversity and ecological outcomes. The objective of this report is to inform this component of the VEAC investigation, by providing an assessment of anthropogenic threats to the biodiversity and ecological outcomes of the existing marine protected areas. These biodiversity and ecological outcomes relate to the purposes for which the marine protected areas were established. The challenges to management posed by the assessed threats are also considered.

Assessments were conducted on the anthropogenic threats to marine protected areas in Victoria. The marine protected areas included all Marine National Parks (MNP) and Marine Sanctuaries (MS), as well as three Marine and Coastal Parks (MCP) (Corner Inlet, Nooramunga and Shallow Inlet). In addition to threat assessments of the MPAs, assessments were also carried out on two regionally important ecological processes that may strongly influence MPAs in the region. These processes were the Port Phillip Bay sedimentary basin (critical to bay health through denitrification), and the Bonney upwelling region (critical for pelagic and benthic productivity and blue whale feeding). These ecological processes were chosen for illustrative purposes and due to their documented regional significance. A range of other ecological processes may also affect the MPAs from outside their boundaries (e.g. see Longmore 2013).

The threat assessments were conducted on the basis of the current management controls that are placed on these threats. For example, the prohibition of fishing with the no-take areas means that fishing is not rated as a threat unless it occurs through illegal fishing or there are external influences from fishing outside the area(for example on the food chain in the area). Other examples of current management influencing marine protected areas include catchment management strategies controlling sediment and nutrient inputs to the coast, and also controls on nutrient inputs from sewage treatment plants such as occurs in Port Phillip Bay.

Victoria’s marine protected areas (MPAs) were found to be vulnerable to a wide variety of anthropogenic threats. In the short term (5 years), highest threats across all MPAs were associated with rare events that have severe consequences, such as major oil spills and introduction of marine pests or pathogens. In general, MPAs within embayments were subject to a greater range of significant threats, through urbanisation (sewage, stormwater), coastal infrastructure and port development. These activities were sources of stressors such as nutrients and sediments (suspended and settled). MPAs in embayments were also exposed to stressors from catchments such as nutrients from agriculture and sediments from catchment erosion. Embayments tend to have lower flushing rates compared to coastal areas so that stressors can remain in the area of the MPA for longer periods. MPAs in embayments tend to have vulnerable habitats, particularly seagrass beds that are vulnerable to the effects of reduced light through nutrients causing overgrowth by algae, or suspended sediments causing turbidity.

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MPAs in the central coastal area or near large regional cities can be exposed to a similar range of stressors to those in embayments although in this case water flushing rates are greater and habitats are slightly more resilient. In the far eastern and western regions of the State, MPAs are subject to the lowest level of threat because of their remoteness to human population and activities.

One threat that did not decrease for more remote MPAs in the far east was illegal fishing, particularly illegal removal of abalone. This type of illegal activity was categorised under the threat category: “recreational fishing – extraction”. In central bioregion, this illegal fishing usually occurs at a relatively small scale, however, it should be noted that some illegal abalone fishing can operate at a scale similar to commercial operations in more remote areas.

Threats to MPAs also vary depending on the attribute of the ecosystems in the marine protected areas being considered (species and populations, communities and habitats, or ecosystem function). For example, some threats are specific to individual species or groups of species, but have lower consequences for habitat or ecosystem function. Examples include the effects of the abalone ganglioneuritis virus (AGV) on abalone populations, or the effects of human recreation in disturbing listed birds.

When threats are considered over a longer time frame (60 years), the impacts of climate change become critically important across all MPAs. This is especially the case for the stressors sea level rise, increased temperature and introduction of new marine pests. Sea level rise is most threatening for MPAs that have significant intertidal habitat, such as coastal MPAs with large intertidal rocky reef platforms, or embayment MPAs with significant areas of low elevation salt marsh habitat. Increasing air temperature can lead to greater desiccation of intertidal algae while increased water temperature can exceed the physiological tolerances of species or cause species’ range changes. A threat that may already be occurring in relation to species’ range changes relates to the potential spread of black urchins in eastern Victoria creating ‘barrens’ of bare reef by removing macroalgae through grazing. Increased water temperatures in the East Australian Current have already resulted in the spread of these urchins into Tasmanian waters. Finally, climate change may increase the environmental suitability for the establishment of introduced pests, although there is considerable uncertainty in this area.

Over the longer term there will also be an increase in threats related to urbanisation and coastal development for MPAs in areas where human populations are increasing (especially embayments and the central coastal area). This will not only relate to decreased water quality but also to effects of increased recreation and tourism activities.

In terms of the management of threats to MPAs, there is only a limited range of threats that can be directly influenced by MPA managers. Examples include prevention of illegal fishing, and control of disturbance through management of visitation levels. The majority of anthropogenic threats to MPAs, however, are the responsibility of other management agencies (although MPA managers can play an important role as an advocate for action relating to the MPAs and providing support, guidance, and advice to other agencies, as well as monitoring for the effectiveness of actions). Some threat sources, such as oil spills and pest incursions, are subject to rigorous management,

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

and generally environmental management plans would include consideration of MPAs. Other threat sources, however, maybe of a smaller scale (e.g. sewage, stormwater, localised coastal infrastructure) and may fall under the responsibility of multiple agencies (e.g. water authorities, local government). These management agencies may not explicitly consider threats to MPAs from these sources. Where sources are further removed from MPAs, such as nutrient addition and sediment erosion from agricultural activities in catchments, management agencies such as catchment management authorities may give little consideration to “downstream” effects on MPAs. Thus, a major challenge to the management of threats to MPAs is to increase the awareness of these issues in other management agencies so that MPAs are considered explicitly in environmental effects statements and environmental management plans.

The long-term threats associated with climate change cannot be managed at the local level and many of the changes over the next 60 years are now largely inevitable given current greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is likely that biodiversity and ecosystem values of MPAs under pressure from other anthropogenic threats will be more vulnerable to climate change impacts. Successful management of other anthropogenic threats will increase the resilience of MPAs to climate change impacts.

The threat analysis used in this study was based on the analysis of threat consequences that allowed for a relative rapid assessment of a large number of assets/attributes. For two assets, the Swan Bay section of the Port Phillip Heads MNP and the Merri MS, a more detailed analysis including the likelihood of an event occurring was also undertaken for comparison. This analysis showed that some threats, such as nutrients and sediments from catchments, had a low consequence level but have a very high likelihood, and therefore a greater risk than indicated by analysing consequence only. In contrast, this method resulted in a reduced risk for threats with high consequences, but the likelihood of the threat occurring is very low (e.g. major oil spills, pest incursions).

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Introduction The marine environment is exposed to a wide range of anthropogenic threats. Threat sources may be localised to the area of interest, but may also originate a considerable distance from the area of interest through hydrodynamic transport. An example would be suspended sediments from erosion in the upper catchment affecting marine plant habitats near the mouths of estuaries. As such, the closure of an area to protect natural values can reduce some threats, but many cannot be controlled by direct local management. This is the case for Victoria’s marine protected areas, where some threats, such as removal of fauna through fishing and other activities can be controlled locally (albeit this can be more difficult in remote areas); however, other threats may come from broader-scale sources and are a particular challenge to the effective management of marine protected areas.

The Victorian Environmental Assessment Council (VEAC) has summarised the formally defined ecological purpose of Victoria’s no-take MPAs, drawing largely on the National Parks Act 1975, as: “to protect natural ecosystems including (indigenous) biodiversity, natural processes and features of scenic, archaeological, ecological, geological, historic or other scientific interest” (VEAC 2012). For management to effectively protect these natural systems there is a need to understand the anthropogenic threats they may be exposed to, including the sources of threat and the stressors arising from them.

The Minister for Environment and Climate Change has requested VEAC to carry out an investigation into the outcomes of the establishment of Victoria's existing marine protected areas. The terms of reference for the investigation are:

Pursuant to section 15 of the Victorian Environmental Assessment Council Act 2001, the Minister for Environment and Climate Change requests the Council to carry out an investigation into the outcomes of the establishment 1 of Victoria’s existing marine protected areas 1.

The purpose of the marine investigation is to examine and provide assessment of:

(a) the performance and management of existing marine protected areas in meeting the purposes for which they were established, particularly the protection of the natural environment, indigenous flora and fauna and other natural and historic values; and (b) any ongoing threats or challenges to the effective management of existing marine protected areas, particularly in relation to the biodiversity and ecological outcomes. In addition to the considerations in section 18 of the Victorian Environmental Assessment Council Act 2001, the Council must take into account the following matters:

(i) all relevant State Government policies and strategies, Ministerial statements and reports by the Victorian Auditor ‐General; (ii) all relevant national and international agreements, policies and strategies, including ecosystem ‐based management approaches; and

1 For this investigation, marine protected areas means the 13 marine national parks, 11 marine sanctuaries, and 6 marine parks, marine reserves or marine and coastal parks established under schedules seven, eight and four respectively of the National Parks Act 1975.

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(iii) relevant regional programs, strategies and plans. Three public submission periods are to be held and a discussion paper and a draft proposals paper are to be prepared. The Council must report on the completed investigation by February 2014.

Objective of this report The objective of this report is to inform VEAC’s assessment for component (b) of the investigation, by providing an assessment of anthropogenic threats to the biodiversity and ecological outcomes of the existing marine protected areas. By doing this, it also informs VEAC’s assessment of component (a) by identifying the important threats that require management, and the way that these threats can differ between MPAs and over time. These biodiversity and ecological outcomes relate to the purposes for which the marine protected areas were established. The challenges to management posed by the assessed threats are considered.

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Materials and Methods Assessments were conducted on the anthropogenic threats to the existing marine protected areas in Victoria. The marine protected areas included all Marine National Parks (MNP) and Marine Sanctuaries (MS), as well as three Marine and Coastal Parks (MCP) (Corner Inlet, Nooramunga and Shallow Inlet). In addition to threat assessments for the MPAs, assessments were also carried out on two regionally important ecological processes that may strongly influence MPAs in the region. These processes were the Port Phillip Bay sedimentary basin (critical to bay health through denitrification), and the Bonney upwelling region (critical for pelagic and benthic productivity and blue whale feeding).

The threat assessment procedure is described by Smith et al . (2012) and refined by Jenkins (2013), and in this study, assessment Method 1 of the procedure was primarily used. Method 1 involves a relatively rapid screening of assets for the consequences of individual identified threats (Jenkins 2013). For each marine protected area, three attribute classes were considered in relation to biodiversity and ecological outcomes.

The attributes were: • species and populations • communities and habitats • ecosystem function. Threat consequence assessments were conducted separately for each attribute class considered.

For each assessment there is a list of human activities as sources of potential threats grouped under the following categories:

• Land based • Infrastructure • Marine • Climate change These threat sources were drawn from previously published lists (Carey et al. 2007; ICUN 2012), as well as advice from external peer review (Rissik 2012) taking into account relevance to Victoria’s state waters. For each of these potential sources there is a corresponding list of potential stressors emanating from the source that can be assigned a threat (consequence) score (refer to Tables 6 onwards for a list).

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Two assessments were made for short (5 year) and long (60 year) time frames for each attribute of each marine protected area. The two different time scales were used so that both short- and long- term threats could be encapsulated (with corresponding time scales of management relevance)

The next step was to assign threat (consequence) scores to each combination of source and stressor for which some impact on the attribute was expected to occur (Jenkins 2013). Consequence scores were specific to each of the three attributes (Table 1).

A justification of scoring was documented so that scoring can be re-assessed over time by different users/stakeholders. Justification was provided for consequence scores of “Moderate” or above (Jenkins 2013). Each score justification included an estimate of the uncertainty attached to the assessment. Uncertainty in this case relates to the quality of data available to make the assessment (Rissik 2012). Data quality categories and associated definitions are given in Table 2.

For comparison with results of the Method 1 threat assessments, a more detailed Method 2 risk assessment (Smith et al. 2012; Jenkins 2013) was carried out for the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP, and for the Merri MS. For this assessment, a likelihood score, based on Table 3, was assessed for each source/stressor combination with a threat (consequence) score of moderate or greater. The product of the threat (consequence) and likelihood scores gave a risk score (Table 4). The risk score was used to assess the risk category (Table 5). Thus, where Method 1 mainly assesses the consequence of the source/stressor for the attribute/asset under consideration, Method 2 also includes consideration of the likelihood of the source/stressor affecting the attribute/asset (Smith et al. 2012; Jenkins 2013). One likelihood table was generated for all three attributes for the Swan Bay assessment, however, in the case of the Merri MS assessment, a separate likelihood table was generated for the “Species/Populations” attribute because the specific threat of fox and dog predation on birds gave a different likelihood score outcome to that applied in the other two attributes.

Analysis The analysis of the threat assessment included the tabulation of “Moderate”, “Major” and “Catastrophic” threats for each marine protected area (the highest rating amongst the three attribute classes for the particular source/stressor combination was used). The tabulation was done for the 5 year time frame and for the 60 frame (in this case only for threats that changed from the 5 year assessment). A similar tabulation was done for the “Method 2” analysis of two MPAs, in this case for “Medium”, “High” and “Extreme” risks.

The total of all threat scores for each attribute of each marine protected area (and regionally important ecological process) was compared to determine the relative level of threat associated with each marine protected area.

Information sources A wide variety of information sources were used to undertake this assessment. A number of reports were consulted that covered the natural values of, and threats to, MPAs and regionally important processes. Examples of the reports consulted include: Carey et al . (2004; 2007), Barton

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

et al . (2012a,b,c,d,e), and Butler et al . (2002); as well as marine park management plans and Parks Victoria Technical Reports on the sub-tidal and inter-tidal reef monitoring programs. In terms of information on sources and stressors, a number of reports and websites were consulted; for example, information on tourism and recreation associated with MPAs (PV 2004; Porter and Wescott 2010; 2012), estuarine condition (Barton et al. 2008), population growth (VCC 2008; DPCD 2012), forestry (DPI 2012), Port development (Edmunds et al. 2004), oil spills (VDT 2011) and Climate Change (Mills et al. 2012; DEPI 2013; Morris and Bathgate 2013.). Unpublished data-bases and confidential reports were also accessed; an example being for information on fisheries infringements in MPAs. Some threat assessments for Port Phillip Bay and western Victoria, including regionally significant processes, were covered in a meeting of scientific experts and stakeholders at the DPI Queenscliff Centre in October 2011. Information was also sourced from a series of workshops run by the Department of Environment and Sustainability in 2011 on identifying marine assets in Victoria as well as the threats to the assets. In relation to sources and stressors, in some cases there were multiple future scenarios (for example in port development) that may or may not impinge on an MPA or regionally important process depending on the particular scenario in question. However, because the threat assessment method was based primarily on consequence, the likelihood of any particular scenario occurring did not strongly influence the results.

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Table 1. Consequence rating definitions for the three potential attributes for any marine asset Attribute Consequence Rating

Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

(0) (1) (2) (3) (4)

Species and Less than 5% impact 5–10% impact on 10–30% impact on 30–70% impact on >70% impact on Populations on abundance abundance abundance abundance abundance No detectable change Detectable change Obvious change in Obvious change in Major change in in abundance in abundance but abundance and abundance and in abundance and in no effect on detectable change viability viability viability in viability

Community/Habitat <5% loss of area and / 5–10% loss of area 10–30% loss of 30–70% loss of area >70% loss of area or level of and / or level of area and / or level and / or level of and / or level of fragmentation of fragmentation of of fragmentation of fragmentation of fragmentation of habitat habitat habitat habitat habitat Recovery of habitat in Recovery of Recovery of habitat Recovery of habitat Recovery of habitat <1 month habitat in <1 year in 1–3 years in 4–10 years in >10 years if at all <5% change in 5–10% change in 10–30% change in 30–70% change in >70% change in community community community community community composition - loss of composition - loss composition - loss composition - loss composition - loss diversity of diversity of diversity of diversity of diversity

Ecosystem Function Within natural Changes to Changes to Changes to Long term and variability. ecosystem ecosystem ecosystem possibly irreversible Interactions may have components components with a components with a damage to one or without major minor change in major change in more ecosystem changed but unlikely change in function. function. function. functions. to be detectable < 1 year recovery 1–3 years recovery 4–10 years recovery Recovery, if at all, greater than 10 years

Table 2. Data quality categories and associated definitions Data quality Definition

High High quality data collected according to excellent protocols, good temporal and spatial replication

Medium Good data, poor temporal or spatial replication

Low Data quality or replication questionable or of dubious quality, educated guesswork used

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Table 3. Probability ranges associated with Likelihood scores Probability of Likelihood occurrence

Rare (1) 0–5% Unlikely (2) 6–30% Possible (3) 31–70% Likely (4) 71–95% Almost certain (5) 96–100%

Table 4. Risk scores for all combinations of Likelihood and Consequence Likelihood Consequence Rating Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic (0) (1) (2) (3) (4) Rare (1) 0 1 2 3 4 Unlikely (2) 0 2 4 6 8 Possible (3) 0 3 6 9 12 Likely (4) 0 4 8 12 16 Almost certain (5) 0 5 10 15 20

Table 5. Range of risk scores associated with each risk category

Risk Score Risk rating Negligible 0 0 Low 1-3 1 Medium 4-7 2 High 8-11 3 Extreme 12-20 4

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Results

Comparison of significant threats across MPAs, bioregions and time frames When comparing significant threats (moderate or higher) across bioregions and time frames, both similarities and distinct differences were apparent (Tables 6 to 11).

5-Year time frame Across all bioregions, the highest (catastrophic) threats were related to shipping, and the possibility of major oil spills, and the introduction of new pathogens and pests. Although of very high consequence, the likelihood of these threats occurring is very low, and therefore the concomitant risk is also reduced. These threats are also subject to intense management, further reducing the likelihood of occurrence.

Further major sources of threat for MPAs across all bioregions related to vessel movements associated with commercial fishing, tourism and recreation, and recreational fishing. In this case the most important stressors are pests (e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia , Undaria , Asterias ) and pathogens (e.g. abalone virus) that may be translocated by these activities.

The number of significant threats potentially impacting on MPAs was greatest for embayments (Table 6). This is partly because the human population density, with associated urbanisation, industry, agriculture and coastal infrastructure is greatest in the embayment bioregion, especially in northern Port Phillip Bay. It is also partly the result of the more enclosed and sheltered environment, with lower rates of water movement and flushing, resulting in longer residence time for stressors such as nutrients, suspended sediments, contaminants and so forth. Furthermore, embayments tend to receive relatively large inputs of freshwater, potentially carrying potential stressors from catchments to MPAs.

Nutrients and suspended sediments are a significant threat to seagrass and algal habitats within MPAs in embayments, either from stormwater in urbanised areas, or from farming practices in agricultural areas (Table 6). The major issue is reduced light for plants either through epiphyte growth (nutrients) or increased turbidity (suspended sediments). The management of these threats is largely related to management of the catchment (i.e. reduced bank erosion, fertiliser use).

Other important threats for MPAs in embayments were from the ports/channels and coastal infrastructure sources. The most important stressor in this case was suspended sediments, with sediment plumes from dredging activities posing a particular threat to MPAs with significant seagrass habitat (Table 6). The development of coastal infrastructure (breakwaters, piers, groins, beach renourishment etc.) can pose a significant threat in terms of both suspended and settled sediments.

There were had relatively fewer significant threats to the regionally important process of denitrification in the Port Phillip Bay sedimentary basin (>10 m depth) compared with the embayment MPAs (Table 6). In terms of the diverse infaunal community in the area, the

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introduction of marine pests is the greatest threat. The critical ecological process of denitrification is vulnerable to excess nutrient input, however this threat is currently controlled and managed through decreasing nutrient output from the Western Treatment Plant and from storm water (through the establishment of more than 100 constructed wetlands). It cannot be assumed, however, that these controls will remain effective even in the short term without continued action to prevent future increases in nutrients from, for example, population growth. The greatest threat is the introduction of a pathogen affecting the bacteria responsible for the denitrification process, although there is no specific pathogen threat identified at the time of this assessment (A. Longmore, Pers. Comm.).

In the Western and Central bioregions, there was a range threats to MPAs that were near significant sources of freshwater input, especially where there was urban development in the catchment. Examples were the Merri MS and the Central bioregion MPAs to the west of Port Phillip Heads (Table 8). Important threats included nutrients from sewage, stormwater and agriculture (Table 8). Illegal removal of shellfish, particularly abalone, was mainly a threat in the central MPAs (Table 8). The Merri MS was subject to the broadest range of threats due to its close proximity to a major regional city as well as a significant input of freshwater from the catchment (Table 8).

The Bonney upwelling regional process was vulnerable to threats impacting on blue whales such as underwater noise from petroleum exploration (Table 8). Moreover, the pelagic food chain (including krill) the whales depend was vulnerable to threats such as oil spills associated with shipping (Table 8). Because this region is not a marine protected area, fishing is a potential threat. For example, recreational fishing for the Southern Bluefin Tuna will require careful management.

MPAs in the Flinders and Twofold bioregions were subject a much smaller range of threats, primarily because they are located in remote areas without major urbanisation or agricultural development in the catchment (Table 10). A major threat for the far eastern MPAs is from illegal harvesting of shellfish, in particular abalone poaching, which was included under the threat category “recreational fishing – extraction” (Table 10).

60-Year time frame By far the greatest additional threat across all bioregions when moving from a 5- to a 60-year time frame was from stressors related to climate change; in particular, the stressors associated with sea level rise, increased temperature and introduced pests (Tables 6 to 11).

Sea level rise will be a significant threat over the next 60 years with the exception of MPAs that are subtidal or have minimal intertidal habitat (e.g. the Arches MS, Ninety Mile Beach MNP). The greatest threat of sea level rise occurs where there are large areas of intertidal or low elevation areas of saltmarsh or other habitat (e.g. Corner Inlet MCP, Nooramunga MCP).

Increased temperature is a critical threat that can have a range of effects. Increased air temperature will cause significant desiccation of algae on intertidal habitats. Increased water temperature can exceed the physiological tolerances of existing species, and in a related effect,

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cause range changes that will result in competition between species. Catastrophic consequences could result from the latter threat in far eastern Victorian MPAs where the barren forming sea urchin, Centrostephanus rogersii , may extend its range westwards with increasing water temperature. This would likely result in a major ecosystem transformation from macroalgal dominated habitat to bare substrate. Increased water temperatures in the East Australian Current have already resulted in the spread of these urchins into Tasmanian waters.

The changed environment associated with climate change may make conditions suitable for the establishment of populations of marine pests that currently do not occur in MPAs. There is high uncertainty in this area with little information available on potential pest incursions.

Changes to waves and currents associated with altered winds and water temperatures may pose significant threats to MPAs. Altered currents will potentially affect dispersal and recruitment patterns of marine species. Changes to wave patterns will result in altered patterns of erosion and sand movement, which may be a particular threat to seagrass beds in embayments. The greatest threat of altered waves and currents under climate change is to the Bonney upwelling regional process (and hence also the Discovery Bay MNP) that is highly dependent on prevailing south- easterly winds over the late-summer, early-autumn period.

Although of lower severity, threats under climate change of increased seawater acidity affecting invertebrates with calcareous skeletons, increased UVB affecting seagrass in particular, and physical disturbance due to increased frequency of storms may all be important. For example, increased acidity and UVB could affect the planktonic food chain in the blue whale feeding grounds in the Bonney upwelling region (Table 9). The type and magnitude of effects, however, is highly uncertain.

Other threats to MPAs likely to increase over the 60-year relative to the 5-year time frame are related to increased population growth and associated urbanisation and coastal development (Tables 7, 9, 11). These threats will be most important for MPAs in embayments already near major population centres, as well as coastal MPAs in the central bioregion in areas where the population is likely to increase. In embayments, the threats are mainly related to increased nutrients and sediments in stormwater, although agricultural inputs may also be critical (e.g. Swan Bay). Other threats that may increase in embayments with increased human population include suspended and settled sediments associated with port development and coastal infrastructure. Increased human population on the coast in the central bioregion may mean additional threats from nutrients in sewage as well as nutrients and suspended sediments in stormwater.

A further threat from increased human population that will affect most MPAs apart from those in more remote locations in the far eastern and western areas of the State is from tourism and recreation. Threats are mainly related to disturbance of listed bird species or from trampling algae or removing invertebrates in intertidal algal habitat.

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Comparison of total threat scores across MPAs and attributes Total threat scores within individual MPAs were always higher for the 60- compared to the 5-year time frame, primarily due to the additional threats posed by climate change and increasing human population (Fig. 1). In many cases the total threat score for the attribute Species/Populations was higher than for Communities/Habitats or Ecosystem Function. Some threats affected certain species without affecting (or having a lesser effect) on communities/habitats and ecosystem function. An example of this was abalone, through their vulnerability to the abalone ganglioneuritis virus, and to illegal shellfish poaching. Listed bird species were also subject to threats that did not affect the other attributes, such as disturbance from human recreation and tourism. This was not always the case though. For example, the total threat score for the Ninety Mile Beach MNP was much lower for the Species/Population attribute than for the other two attributes (Fig. 1).

In terms of individual MPAs, the highest total threat scores were for MPAs in the north of Port Phillip Bay (Point Cooke MS, Jawbone MS and Ricketts Point MS), as well as the Merri MS (Fig. 1). These MPAs were adjacent to areas of relatively high population and reduced water quality from catchment and stormwater input. Other embayment MPAs also had relatively high total threat scores, due to high population and urbanisation, intensive agriculture in the catchment, together with port and coastal infrastructure development. An exception to this was the Shallow Inlet Marine and Coastal Park, which has little urbanisation, no port development and negligible coastal infrastructure, and commercial fishing is banned from the entire inlet. The regionally important process of denitrification in the Port Phillip Bay sedimentary basin (>10 m depth) was found to be less vulnerable to anthropogenic threats than the embayment MPAs (Fig. 1). The greater depth and distance from shore of this area, together with a lack of vulnerable plant habitats such as seagrass beds, contributes to this resilience.

Relatively low total threat scores were recorded for the more remote MPAs in the far eastern and westerns areas of the State (Discovery Bay MNP, Point Hicks MNP, Cape Howe MNP and Beware Reef MS). The lowest total threat scores were for the Ninety Mile Beach MNP, due to a combination of remoteness, and also a lack of structure habitat such as reef or seagrass (Fig.1). Remoteness also contributed to the relatively low total threat score for the Bonney upwelling regional process (Fig. 1).

Comparison of risk assessment (Method 2) with threat (consequence) assessment (Method 1) for two MPAs The threat assessment of the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Bay MNP and the Merri MS was extended to a Method 2 risk assessment to compare the results of the two methods. For Swan Bay for the 5-year horizon, the results de-emphasised the importance of high consequence but rare events such as oil spills and pest introductions associated with shipping, and increased the emphasis on agriculture related nutrients and suspended sediments, and suspended sediments from a number of other sources (stormwater, ports and channels, coastal infrastructure) (Table 6, 12). There was a similar change of emphasis in the results for the Merri MS (Table 8, 12), with reduced importance of rare events such as oil spills and pest introductions associated with

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shipping. The potential threat of predation by foxes and dogs on birds remained important due to a relatively higher likelihood. In the case of the 60-year horizon, the results for both MPAs showed an increased importance of climate change effects (Table 7, 9, 13). This is related to the relatively high likelihood that these climate change impacts will occur over this period, although there is also high uncertainty as to the magnitude of these changes.

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Table 6. Moderate (yellow), Major (orange) and Catastrophic (red) consequences in the embayments bioregion – 5 year horizon Location Sewage -nutrients -nutrients Sewage - Stormwater nutrients sediments suspended – Stormwater sediments settled – Stormwater salinity – Stormwater sediments suspended Forestry– sediments settled Forestry– - nutrients Agriculture sediments - suspended Agriculture sediments settled – Agriculture pesticides/herbicides – Agriculture metals heavy – Industry oil/dispersant Industry- sediments suspended – infrastructure Coastal sediments settled – infrastructure Coastal waves/currents altered – infrastructure Coastal sediments - suspended Ports/channels sediments - settled Ports/channels oil/dispersant – Ports/channels disturbance physical – Ports/channels waves/currents altered – Ports/channels reefs- pests Artificial Oil/dispersant – fisheries Commercial - pathogens fisheries Commercial - pests fisheries Commercial disturbance physical – fisheries Commercial - extraction fisheries Commercial oil/dispersant – Shipping pathogens – Shipping - pests Shipping oil/dispersant – Tourism/recreation - pathogens Tourism/recreation - pests Tourism/recreation disturbance physical – Tourism/recreation - pathogens Aquaculture - pests Aquaculture - pathogens fishing Recreational - pests fishing Recreational disturbance physical – fishing Recreational - extraction fishing Recreational - acidity change Climate rise level sea – change Climate UVB increased – change Climate temperature increased – change Climate - pests change Climate disturbance physical – change Climate waves/currents altered – change Climate Embayments Port Phillip Heads MNP Swan Bay Mud Islands Point Lonsdale Point Nepean Popes Eye/Portsea Hole Point Cooke MS Jawbone MS Ricketts Point MS PPB Sedimentary Basin Yaringa MNP French Island MNP Churchill Island MNP Corner Inlet MNP Corner Inlet MCP Nooramunga MCP Shallow Inlet MCP

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Table 7. Moderate (yellow), Major (orange) and Catastrophic (red) consequences in the embayments bioregion – 60 year horizon (where different to the 5 year horizon) Location Sewage - nutrients - nutrients Sewage - Stormwater nutrients sediments suspended – Stormwater sediments settled – Stormwater salinity – Stormwater sediments suspended Forestry– sediments settled Forestry– - nutrients Agriculture sediments - suspended Agriculture sediments - settled Agriculture pesticides/herbicides – Agriculture metals heavy – Industry oil/dispersant – Industry sediments suspended – infrastructure Coastal sediments settled – infrastructure Coastal waves/currents altered – infrastructure Coastal sediments - suspended Ports/channels sediments - settled Ports/channels oil/dispersant – Ports/channels disturbance physical – Ports/channels currents / waves altered – Ports/channels reefs- pests Artificial oil/dispersant – fisheries Commercial - pathogens fisheries Commercial - pests fisheries Commercial disturbance physical – fisheries Commercial - extraction fisheries Commercial oil/dispersant – Shipping pathogens – Shipping - pests Shipping oil/dispersant – Tourism/recreation - pathogens Tourism/recreation - pests Tourism/recreation disturbance physical – Tourism/recreation - pathogens Aquaculture - pests Aquaculture - pathogens fishing Recreational - pests fishing Recreational disturbance physical – fishing Recreational - extraction fishing Recreational - acidity change Climate rise level sea – change Climate UVB increased – change Climate temperature increased – change Climate - pests change Climate disturbance physical – change Climate waves/currents altered – change Climate Embayments Port Phillip Heads MNP Swan Bay Mud Islands Point Lonsdale Point Nepean Popes Eye/Portsea Hole Point Cooke MS Jawbone MS Ricketts Point MS PPB Sedimentary Basin Yaringa MNP French Island MNP Churchill Island MNP Corner Inlet MNP Corner Inlet MCP Nooramunga MCP Shallow Inlet MCP

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Table 8. Moderate (yellow), Major (orange) and Catastrophic (red) consequences in the Otway/Central bioregions – 5 year horizon Location Sewage - nutrients - nutrients Sewage salinity – Sewage - Stormwater nutrients sediments suspended – Stormwater sediments settled – Stormwater salinity – Stormwater sediments suspended Forestry– sediments settled Forestry– - nutrients Agriculture sediments - suspended Agriculture sediments - settled Agriculture sediments suspended – infrastructure Coastal sediments settled – infrastructure Coastal waves/currents altered – infrastructure Coastal sediments - suspended Ports/channels sediments - settled Ports/channels oil/dispersant – fisheries Commercial - pathogens fisheries Commercial - pests fisheries Commercial disturbance physical – fisheries Commercial - debris fisheries Commercial - extraction fisheries Commercial oil/dispersant – Shipping pathogens – Shipping - pests Shipping - debris Shipping noise underwater – Petroleum/minerals - pathogens Tourism/recreation - pests Tourism/recreation disturbance physical – Tourism/recreation - debris Tourism/recreation - pathogens Aquaculture - pests Aquaculture - pathogens fishing Recreational - pests fishing Recreational - debris fishing Recreational - extraction fishing Recreational - acidity change Climate rise level sea – change Climate rise level sea – change Climate temperature increased – change Climate - pests change Climate disturbance physical – change Climate waves/currents altered – change Climate Otway Discovery Bay MNP Twelve Apostles MNP The Arches MS Merri MS Bonney Upwelling Central Marengo MS Eagle Rock MS Point Addis MNP Point Danger MS Barwon Bluff MS Mushroom Reef MS Bunurong MNP

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Table 9. Moderate (yellow), Major (orange) and Catastrophic (red) consequences in the Otway/Central bioregions – 60 year horizon (where different to the 5 year horizon) Location Sewage - nutrients - nutrients Sewage salinity – Sewage - Stormwater nutrients sediments suspended – Stormwater sediments settled – Stormwater salinity – Stormwater sediments suspended Forestry– sediments settled Forestry– - nutrients Agriculture sediments - suspended Agriculture sediments - settled Agriculture sediments suspended – infrastructure Coastal sediments settled – infrastructure Coastal waves/currents altered – infrastructure Coastal sediments - suspended Ports/channels sediments - settled Ports/channels oil/dispersant – fisheries Commercial - pathogens fisheries Commercial - pests fisheries Commercial disturbance physical – fisheries Commercial - debris fisheries Commercial - extraction fisheries Commercial oil/dispersant – Shipping pathogens – Shipping - pests Shipping - debris Shipping noise underwater – Petroleum/minerals - pathogens Tourism/recreation - pests Tourism/recreation disturbance physical – Tourism/recreation - debris Tourism/recreation - pathogens Aquaculture - pests Aquaculture - pathogens fishing Recreational - pests fishing Recreational - debris fishing Recreational - extraction fishing Recreational - acidity change Climate rise level sea – change Climate UVB increased – change Climate temperature increased – change Climate - pests change Climate disturbance physical – change Climate waves/currents altered – change Climate Otway Discovery Bay MNP Twelve Apostles MNP The Arches MS Merri MS Bonney Upwelling Central Marengo MS Eagle Rock MS Point Addis MNP Point Danger MS Barwon Bluff MS Mushroom Reef MS Bunurong MNP

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Table 10. Moderate (yellow), Major (orange) and Catastrophic (red) consequences in the Flinders/Twofold bioregions – 5 year horizon Location Sewage - nutrients Sewage - nutrients Stormwater sediments suspended – Stormwater settled sediments – Stormwater salinity – Stormwater - nutrients Agriculture - sedimentssuspended Agriculture Commercial fisheries oil/dispersant– Commercial fisheries pathogens- Commercial fisheries pests- Commercial fisheries debris- Commercial fisheries - extraction Shipping oil/dispersant– Shipping pathogens– Shipping pests- Shipping debris- Petroleum/minerals oil/dispersant– Tourism/recreation oil/dispersant- Tourism/recreation pathogens- Tourism/recreation pests- Tourism/recreation physical– disturbance Aquaculture pathogens- Aquaculture pests- Recreational fishing pathogens- Recreational fishing pests- Recreational fishing - extraction Climate change acidity- Climate change increased– UVB Climate change – levelsea rise Climate change increased– temperature Climate change pests- Climate change physical– disturbance Climate change altered– waves/currents Flinders Wilsons Promontory MNP Twofold Ninety Mile Beach MNP Cape Howe MNP Beware Reef MS Point Hicks MNP

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Table 11. Moderate (yellow), Major (orange) and Catastrophic (red) consequences in the Flinders/Twofold bioregions – 60 year horizon (where different to the 5 year horizon)

Location Sewage - nutrients Sewage - nutrients Stormwater sediments suspended – Stormwater settled sediments – Stormwater salinity – Stormwater - nutrients Agriculture - sedimentssuspended Agriculture Commercial fisheries oil/dispersant– Commercial fisheries pathogens- Commercial fisheries pests- Commercial fisheries debris- Commercial fisheries - extraction Shipping oil/dispersant– Shipping pathogens– Shipping pests- Shipping debris- Petroleum/minerals oil/dispersant– Tourism/recreation oil/dispersant- Tourism/recreation pathogens- Tourism/recreation pests- Tourism/recreation physical– disturbance Aquaculture pathogens- Aquaculture pests- Recreational fishing pathogens- Recreational fishing pests- Recreational fishing - extraction Climate change acidity- Climate change increased– UVB Climate change – levelsea rise Climate change increased– temperature Climate change pests- Climate change physical– disturbance Climate change altered– waves/currents Flinders Wilsons Promontory MNP Twofold Ninety Mile Beach MNP Cape Howe MNP Beware Reef MS Point Hicks MNP

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Table 12. Medium (yellow), High (orange) and Extreme (red) risks for two marine protected areas – 5 year horizon

Location Sewage -nutrients -nutrients Sewage - Stormwater nutrients sediments suspended – Stormwater sediments settled – Stormwater debris – Stormwater sediments suspended Forestry– sediments settled Forestry– - nutrients Agriculture sediments - suspended Agriculture sediments settled – Agriculture pesticides/herbicides – Agriculture metals heavy – Industry oil/dispersant Industry- sediments suspended – infrastructure Coastal sediments settled – infrastructure Coastal waves/currents altered – infrastructure Coastal sediments - suspended Ports/channels sediments - settled Ports/channels oil/dispersant – Ports/channels disturbance physical – Ports/channels waves/currents altered – Ports/channels reefs- pests Artificial Oil/dispersant – fisheries Commercial - pathogens fisheries Commercial - pests fisheries Commercial disturbance physical – fisheries Commercial - extraction fisheries Commercial oil/dispersant – Shipping pathogens – Shipping - pests Shipping noise underwater – Petroleum/minerals oil/dispersant – Tourism/recreation - pathogens Tourism/recreation - pests Tourism/recreation disturbance physical – Tourism/recreation - pathogens fishing Recreational - pests fishing Recreational disturbance physical – fishing Recreational - extraction fishing Recreational - acidity change Climate rise level sea – change Climate UVB increased – change Climate temperature increased – change Climate - pests change Climate disturbance physical – change Climate waves/currents altered – change Climate Embayments Port Phillip Heads MNP Swan Bay Otway Merri MS

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Table 13. Medium (yellow), High (orange) and Extreme (red) risks for two marine protected areas – 60 year horizon (where different to the 5 year horizon)

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Figure 1. Total threat scores for Victorian Marine Protected Areas and significant regional processes

120

100

60 Species/Populations Species/Populations (2070) Total ThreatTotal Score 40 Communities/Habitats Communities/Habitats (2070) 20 Ecosystem Function Ecosystem Function (2070)

Marine Protected Area

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Discussion and Conclusions The threat assessments show clearly that there are a range of anthropogenic threats to the effective management of MPAs in relation to biodiversity and ecological outcomes. Only a few of these threats are under the direct control of MPA managers, for example the prevention of illegal fishing and the management of visitation to minimise the disturbance to habitats and species. The difficulty of managing these threats under direct control of MPA managers varies with the characteristics of the MPA. For example, preventing illegal fishing for species such as abalone is more difficult for MPAs in remote locations such as far eastern Victoria. This threat was included under the threat category “recreational fishing – extraction”, however future assessments could consider including illegal fishing as a separate threat category.

For most anthropogenic threats, management control is the responsibility of other agencies. Some of these threats have a high level of management control, such as oil spills from shipping which together with strong regulation of activities also has a detailed and well-resourced oil spill response plan. Similarly, threats from dredging would usually include a detailed environmental effects statement and an environmental management plan, as well as a rigorous monitoring program. The introduction of marine pests is also the subject of detailed management plans for regulation to prevent incursions and response if incursion occurs. Notwithstanding the high level of management, it is important that MPA managers are active in having marine protected areas considered explicitly in management plans for these threats.

In terms of coastal infrastructure and development, the intensity of management of these activities is related to the scale of the development. Large-scale developments tend to be controlled by environmental effects statements, environmental management plans and monitoring. Small-scale activities such as beach renourishment and construction of groins tend to have less regulation and management control. However the cumulative effects on these small scale activities on MPAs could be very significant, particularly for MPAs in urbanised embayment areas.

Threats from catchment sources are managed by agencies such as catchment management authorities. Unfortunately, because the management is generally focussed “upstream”, there has generally been a lack of awareness of threats to the marine environment in catchment management plans. An exception to this is for MPAs in the embayments. In Port Phillip Bay there has been major investment over many years in catchment management with the primary objective of addressing threats to Bay values, including MPAs, and there is now also a water quality plan for Corner Inlet with a similar focus. There is also a strong recent focus on the influence of the Western Port catchment on the marine environment (Keough et al . 2011) It is incumbent on MPA managers to create awareness in catchment management agencies of potential threats to MPAs. This advice is often provided to the CMAs and other authorities but it is in generic form without differentiating the level of risk to individual MPAs, therefore diminishing the message and potential for action. A threat analysis such as presented here is valuable in that the level of threat to individual MPAs can be taken into account when information on risks is provided to external agencies. A similar argument can be made in terms of sewage and stormwater threats, generally managed by water authorities and local councils (although because these are located

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near or on the coast, awareness of threats to the marine environment is generally higher). Thus, a major challenge to the management of threats to MPAs is to increase the awareness of these issues in other management agencies so the MPAs are considered explicitly in environmental effects statements and environmental management plans.

The management of long-term threats associated with climate change cannot be managed at the local level and many of the changes over the next 60 years are now largely inevitable given current greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is likely that biodiversity and ecosystem values of MPAs under pressure from other anthropogenic threats will be more vulnerable to climate change impacts. Successful management of other anthropogenic threats will increase the resilience of MPAs to climate change impacts.

The threat level for important regional processes was generally lower than for individual MPAs. However, because of the larger scale of these processes, and the fact that they support the functioning of the ecosystem for a number of individual MPAs, any level of threat to these processes must be considered seriously by management agencies.

The threat analysis used in this study is based on the “Method 1” analysis of threat consequences (Smith et al. 2012; Jenkins 2013) that allows for a relative rapid assessment of a large number of assets/attributes relative to a “Method 2” assessment. As shown by the Method 2 assessments undertaken for two MPAs, Method 1 tends to emphasise threats with high consequences, even though the likelihood of the threat occurring may be very low (e.g. major oil spills, pest incursions). The risk determined by Method 2, therefore, is reduced given the probability of occurrence is very low. Some threats, such as nutrients and sediments from catchments, have a lower consequence level but have a very high likelihood, and therefore a greater risk than indicated by analysing consequence only. A Method 2 analysis (Smith et al. 2012; Jenkins 2013) incorporates both the “likelihood” and “consequence” elements of the risk assessment. As demonstrated by the two examples, such an analysis tends to show an increased relative risk of threats that have a high likelihood of occurrence (e.g. sewage, stormwater, agriculture inputs).

In this assessment, uncertainty was expressed in terms of the quality of the data (i.e. quality of protocols, level of spatial and temporal replication). As such, few of the assessments had high certainty, because high quality data is relatively rare for the marine environment. The advantage of considering uncertainty in this way is that it can emphasise where there is a need to collect better quality data for greater certainty in the assessment (Rissik 2012).

Acknowledgements Many thanks to Andy Longmore for peer-reviewing the threat assessments and report and also for providing advice on the Port Phillip Bay sedimentary basin regional process. Thanks to Anna Battese for organising access to fisheries databases on compliance in MPAs. Thanks also to the VEAC project team for providing information and support over the course of this assessment.

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References Barton, J., Pope, A., and Howe, S. (2012a). Marine Natural Values Study Vol 2: Marine Protected Areas of the Central Victoria Bioregion. Parks Victoria, Melbourne, No. 76. Barton, J., Pope, A., and Howe, S. (2012b). Marine Natural Values Study Vol 2: Marine Protected Areas of the Flinders and Twofold Shelf Bioregions. Parks Victoria, Melbourne, No. 79. Barton, J., Pope, A., and Howe, S. (2012c). Marine Natural Values Study Vol 2: Marine Protected Areas of the Otway Bioregion. Parks Victoria, Melbourne, No. 75. Barton, J., Pope, A., and Howe, S. (2012d). Marine Natural Values Study Vol 2: Marine Protected Areas of the Victorian Embayments Bioregion, Part 1 Port Phillip Bay. Parks Victoria, Melbourne, No. 77. Barton, J., Pope, A., and Howe, S. (2012e). Marine Natural Values Study Vol 2: Marine Protected Areas of the Victorian Embayments Bioregion, Part 2 Western Port Bay & Corner Inlet. Parks Victoria, Melbourne, No. 78. Barton, J. L., Pope, A. J., Quinn, G. P., and Sherwood, J. E. (2008). Identifying threats to the ecological condition of Victorian estuaries. Department of Sustainability and Environment Technical Report. Butler, A., Althaus, F., Furlani, D., and Ridgeway, K. (2002). Assessment of the conservation values of the Bonney upwelling area : a component of the Commonwealth Marine Conservation Assessment Program 2002-2004. Report to Environment Australia, CSIRO Marine Research. Carey, J. M., Boxshall, A., Burgman, M. A., Beilin, R., and Flander, L. (2007). State-wide synthesis of threats to natural values in Victoria’s Marine National Parks and Marine Sanctuaries. Parks Victoria Technical Series No. 34, Parks Victoria, Melbourne. Carey, J. M., Burgman, M. A., and Chee, Y. E. (2004). Risk Assessment and the Concept of Ecosystem Condition in Park Management. Parks Victoria, Parks Victoria Technical Series No. 13, Melbourne. DEPI (2013). 'Victorian Coastal Inundation Dataset.' Available at http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/adapting-to-climate-change/future-coasts/victorian- coastal-inundation-dataset . DPCD (2012). Victoria in Future 2012. Population and Household Projections 2011 - 2031 for Victoria and its Regions. Department of Planning and Community Development. DPI (2012). 'Forest Explorer 5.' Available at http://nremap- sc.nre.vic.gov.au/MapShare.v2/imf.jsp?site=forestexplorer . Edmunds, M., Hart, S., Ingwersen, C., Robinson, J., and Ngo, A. T. (2004). Port Phillip Bay Channel Deepening Project Environmental Effects Statement - Marine Ecology Specialist Studies. Volume 16: Seagrass Impact and Risk Assessment. Australian Marine Ecology, 174, Melbourne. ICUN (2012). 'Unified classification of direct threats.'

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Jenkins, G. P. (2013). Assessment of anthropogenic threats to priority areas in Victoria’s marine environment – refined threat assessment approach. Department of Zoology, University of Melbourne, Technical Report. Keough, M. J. , et al. (2011). Understanding the Western Port Environment. A summary of current knowledge and priorities for future research. A report for Melbourne Water, Department of Sustainability and Environment and the Port Phillip and Westernport CMA. Melbourne Water Corporation.

Longmore, A.R. (2013). VEAC Marine Investigation. Spatial and temporal scales of key ecological processes important to biodiversity in Marine Protected Areas. Fisheries Victoria Technical Report Series No. 179. Department of Primary Industries, Queenscliff, Victoria, Australia Mills, R., Womersley, T., and Hobday, A. (2012). Vic Future Climate Marine Ch 1 Physico chemical Changes. Water Technology. Morris, E., and Bathgate, R. (2013.). VEAC Marine Investigation. Implications of Climate Change for Victoria’s Marine Protected Areas. Fisheries Victoria Technical Report Series No. 179. Department of Primary Industries , Queenscliff, Victoria, Australia. Porter, C., and Wescott, G. (2010). Rocky Shores of Marine National Parks and Sanctuaries on the Surf Coast: Values, Uses and Impacts prior to protection. Parks Victoria, Melbourne. PV (2004). Marine National Parks & Sanctuaries Visitor Number Monitoring Study 2003-04. Parks Victoria. PV (2012). Awareness and Usage of Marine National Parks & Marine Sanctuaries. Parks Victoria. Rissik, D. (2012). Review report: Trialling the MACC national approach and its application to ecosystem based management for the VIctorian marine environment. Report for Victoria's Department of Sustainability and Environment. Smith, A. D. M., Jenkins, G. P., and Klemke, J. (2012). Trialling the MACC national approach and its application to ecosystem based management for the Victorian marine environment. Final Report to the Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria. CSIRO, Australia. VCC (2008). Victorian Coastal Strategy. Victorian Coastal Council. VDT (2011). Victorian Marine Pollution Risk Assessment (VMRA11). Victorian Department of Transport

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Appendix A. Threat Assessment Tables

Threat assessment of the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP

A1. Threat assessment of Swan Bay for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

SWAN BAY THREATS stressor

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u e e e i e n a a c e e h

n n altered wave /altered currents underwater noise underwater ab de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ex Time frame 5 years FGH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 7 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 3 3 1 1 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 1 0 8 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 1 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 14 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 6 16 shipping 00300 40000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 3 1 1 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 1 5 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 896283002000113343320 67

Primarily concerns listed species, migratory birds (Ramsar), syngnathids, listed shrimp Data quality F6 Some nutrients will enter with stormwater, localised effects on syngnathid habitat Low G6 Some sediments will enter with stormwater, localised effects on syngnathid habitat Low F8 Nutrient input may lead to shift from seagrass to algal dominated system, affecting syngnathids Medium G8 Sediment input may lead to shift from seagrass to algal dominated system, affecting syngnathids Medium G11 Possible effects of coastal development on increased suspended sediment affecting syngnathid, shrimp habitat Low H11 Possible effects of coastal development on sedimentation patterns affecting syngnathid, shrimp habitat Low U11 Possible localised change to mud bank formation affecting listed bird, shrimp habitat Low G12 Suspended sediments from dredging impacts listed fish, shrimp habitat in southern Swan Bay Low H12 Settled sediments from dredging impacts listed fish, shrimp habitat in southern Swan Bay Low J12 Oil/dispersant released from dredging could have localised impact on important species low U12 Small scale current changes in southern part of Swan Bay could affect habitat for important species Low J15 Oil/dispersant released from commercial fishing vessels in harbour could affect listed species habitat Medium S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia replacing seagrass affecting habitat for listed species Medium J16 Significant oil spill could enter Swan Bay with tides and have major impact on important species High S16 Introduction of marine pests from ballast water could lead to irreversible change to habitat for listed species Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia replacing seagrass affecting habitat for listed species Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia replacing seagrass affecting habitat for listed species Medium

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Consequence ratings: 0 = Insignificant, 1 = Minor, 2 = Moderate, 3 = Major, 4 = Catastrophic

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A2. Threat assessment of Swan Bay for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

SWAN BAY THREATS stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

e gh

c a

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d a

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i ew

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r ra

r br t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

t xt u e e e i e n a a c e e h b

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /altered currents de e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time frame 60 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 3 3 2 0 1 0 1 0 10 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 3 3 1 1 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 1 0 8 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 1 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 14 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 6 16 shipping 00300 40000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 3 1 1 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 1 5 21 Climate Change 2323222 16 9107283002232315563320 85

Primarily concerns listed species, migratory birds (Ramsar), syngnathids, listed shrimp Data quality F6 Increased stormwater nutrients with increased residential development Low G6 Increased stormwater suspended sediments with increased residential development Low H6 Increased settled sediments with stormwater related to residential development Low O21 Increase in acidity of seawater could impact species with calcareous shells, potential effect on fish, shrimp Low P21 Effect of expected sea level rise depends on amount of structure preventing landward migration of bird habitat Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass, possible flow on to syngnathids Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of listed species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment could affect listed species habitat Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting mud banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A3. Threat assessment of Swan Bay for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

SWAN BAY THREATS stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 2220 10 2 0 9 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 3 3 1 1 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 9 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 7 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 2 5 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 897083003000113430040 63

This primarily concerns seagrass beds Data quality F6 Some nutrients will enter with stormwater, localised effects on algal growth reducing seagrass cover Medium G6 Some sediments will enter with stormwater, localised effects on light penetration reducing seagrass cover Medium H6 Sediment from stormwater settling on seagrass blades affects seagrass cover Low N6 Freshwater from stormwater localised impacts on seagrass cover Low F8 Nutrient input may lead to shift from seagrass to algal dominated system, 1 - 3 year scale of variability Medium G8 Sediment input may lead to shift from seagrass to algal dominated system, 1 - 3 year scale of variability Medium G11 Coastal development could lead to increased suspended sediments affecting seagrass cover Low H11 Coastal development could lead to increased settled sediments affecting seagrass cover Low U11 Moderate change to wave/current exposure of seagrass beds, relatively localised Low G12 Suspended sediments from dredging impacts seagrass in southern Swan Bay Low H12 Settled sediments from dredging impacts seagrass in southern Swan Bay Low J15 Oil/dispersant released from commercial fishing vessels in harbour has localised effect on seagrass High S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium X15 Commercial fishing not allowed in Swan Bay but fishing near entrance influence top-down effects on seagrass Low J16 Significant oil spill could enter Swan Bay with tides and cause major change to seagrass habitat High S16 Introduction of marine pests from ballast water could lead to irreversible change to seagrass habitat Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium X20 Small area of Swan Bay available for recreational fishing, possible top-down impact on seagrass cover Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A4. Threat assessment of Swan Bay for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

SWAN BAY THREATS stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t

s d

e n : t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r rac

t a s d t s y b

d d l i a

l c c

t xt u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents e de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time frame 60 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 3 3 2 0 1 0 2 0 11 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 4 3 2 1 1 0 11 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 9 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 7 16 shipping 00400 40000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 2 5 21 Climate Change 3223322 17 1010808300332231655004 0 82

This primarily concerns seagrass beds Data quality

F6 Increased stormwater nutrients with increased residential development Low G6 Increased stormwater suspended sediments with increased residential development Low F8 Increased storm runoff with climate change resulting in increased nutrients leading to algal smothering Low H8 Increased storm runoff with climate change resulting in increased sediments smothering seagrass Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Effect of expected sea level rise depends on amount of structure preventing landward migration of seagrass Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Medium R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of existing seagrass species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A5. Threat assessment of Swan Bay for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

SWAN BAY THREATS stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 2210 10 2 0 8 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 3 3 1 1 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 6 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 6 16 shipping 00400 40000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 2 5 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 896073003000113330040 60

This primarily concerns high seagrass primary/secondary productivity, fish nursery area, bird feeding Data quality F6 Some nutrients will enter with stormwater, localised effects on algal growth reducing seagrass productivity Medium G6 Some sediments will enter with stormwater, localised effects on light penetration reducing seagrass productivity Low N6 Freshwater from stormwater localised impacts on seagrass productivity / fish habitat after heavy rainfall Low F8 Nutrient input may lead to shift from seagrass to algal dominated system, 1 - 3 year scale of variability Medium G8 Sediment input may lead to shift from seagrass to algal dominated system, 1 - 3 year scale of variability Low G11 Possible effects of coastal development causing increased suspended sediments affecting seagrass productivity Low H11 Possible effects of coastal development causing increased settled sediments affecting seagrass productivity Low G12 Suspended sediments from dredging impacts seagrass productivity in southern Swan Bay Low H12 Settled sediments from dredging impacts seagrass productivity in southern Swan Bay Low U12 Small scale of current changes in southern part of Swan Bay affecting seagrass productivity Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production/nursery function Medium X15 Commercial fishing not allowed in Swan Bay but fishing near entrance could affect fish breeding, food chain Low J16 Significant oil spill could enter Swan Bay with tides and cause major change in ecosystem function High S16 Introduction of marine pests from ballast water could lead to irreversible change to ecosystem function Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production/nursery function Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production/nursery function Medium X20 Small area of Swan Bay available for recreational fishing, possible effect on fish breeding, top down food chain Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A6. Threat assessment of Swan Bay for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

SWAN BAY THREATS stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 3320 10 2 0 11 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 4 3 2 1 1 0 11 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 6 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 6 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 2 5 21 Climate Change 3123322 16 1010807300331231645004 0 79

This primarily concerns high seagrass primary/secondary productivity, fish nursery area, bird feeding Data quality

F6 Increased stormwater nutrients with increased residential development Low G6 Increased settled sediments from stormwater with increased residential development Low H6 Increased stormwater suspended sediments with increased residential development Low F8 Increased storm runoff with climate change resulting in increased nutrients leading to algal smothering Low H8 Increased storm runoff with climate change resulting in increased sediments smothering seagrass Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Increased sea level could affect light for subtidal seagrass productivity Low Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Medium R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of existing seagrass species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Mud Islands segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP

A7. Threat assessment of Mud Islands for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

MUD ISLANDS EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 1 3 1 1211 0 16 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 6 16 shipping 0 0 4 4 0 1 0 0 9 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 1 2 43 11 1 14 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 20 rec fishing 3 1 1 5 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 553211101000011464432 1 63

Primarily concerns listed bird species, colonially nesting bird species, syngnathids Data quality G12 Suspended sediments from dredging impacts seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium H12 Settled sediments from dredging impacts seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low J12 Oil/dispersant released from dredging could affect birds Low U12 Wave/current changes in southern part bay could affect seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low J15 Oil spill from commercial fishing vessel could affect bird species Medium S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia replacing seagrass affecting habitat for listed species Low J16 Significant oil spill could have major impact on bird species High S16 Introduction of marine pests from ballast water could affect seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium J18 Oil spill from recreational/tourism vessel could affect bird species Medium S18 Introduction of mammalian predators of birds, marine plant pests replace seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium T18 Physical disturbance of birds from tourism/recreation on the islands Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia replacing seagrass affecting habitat for listed species Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A8. Threat assessment of Mud Islands for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

MUD ISLANDS EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

e gh

c a

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t te

s d

e n : t t e l d d a

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i ew

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r br t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

t xtr u e e e i e n a a c e e h b

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave wave / altered currents e de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 1 3 1 1211 0 16 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 6 16 shipping 0 0 4 4 0 1 0 0 9 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 1 2 43 11 1 14 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 20 rec fishing 3 1 1 5 21 Climate Change 2322322 16 5532111010232217864321 78

Primarily concerns listed bird species, colonially nesting bird species, syngnathids Data quality O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could reduce grazers causing epiphyte smothering of syngnathid habitat Low P21 Seas level rise could reduce bird habitat, decreased light for subtidal seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium Q21 Increased UVB may have effect on seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances bird and syngnathid species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment could affect seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low T21 Increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change affecting birds Low U21 Changes to wave/current patterns could affect seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A9. Threat assessment of Mud Islands for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

MUD ISLANDS EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 1 2 1 1200 0 13 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 16 shipping 0 0 3 4 0 1 0 0 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 1 2 3 1 1 0 0 9 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 20 rec fishing 3 1 0 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 542291000000113332100 46

Primarily concerns seagrass beds and intertidal salt marsh Data quality G12 Suspended sediments from dredging impacts seagrass cover Medium H12 Sediments smother seagrass leaves and affect seagrass cover Medium J12 Oil/dispersant released from dredging could affect seagrass/saltmarsh habitat Low U12 Wave/Current changes in southern part bay could affect seagrass cover Low J15 Oil spill from commercial fishing operations could affect intertidal seagrass/saltmarsh habitat Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium J16 Significant oil spill could have major impact on intertidal seagrass/saltmarsh habitat High S16 Introduction of marine pests from ballast water could affect seagrass cover, e.g.. Caulerpa Medium J18 Oil spill from recreation/tourism boating could affect intertidal seagrass/saltmarsh habitat Low S18 Introduction of weeds could affect saltmarsh habitat, marine pest plants replace seagrass (e.g. Caulerpa ) Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A10. Threat assessment of Mud Islands for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

MUD ISLANDS EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 1 2 1 1200 0 13 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 16 shipping 0 0 3 4 0 1 0 0 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 1 2 3 1 1 0 0 9 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 20 rec fishing 3 1 0 4 21 Climate Change 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 17 542291000232316452100 61

Primarily concerns seagrass beds and intertidal salt marsh Data quality

O21 Increased pH could affect invertebrate grazers leading to algal smothering of seagrass Low P21 Sea level rise could lead to inundation of intertidal seagrass/saltmarsh, less light for subtidal seagrass Medium Q21 Increased UV can affect intertidal and shallow subtidal seagrass survival Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances for seagrass and saltmarsh species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment could affect seagrass/saltmarsh habitat Medium T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Changes to wave/current patterns could affect topography of Mud Islands Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A11. Threat assessment of Mud Islands for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

MUD ISLANDS EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

e gh

s s B r

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r rac

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

t eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h xt

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater ab d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 1 2 1 1200 0 13 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 0 0 0 2 0 7 16 shipping 0 0 4 4 0 1 0 0 9 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 1 2 33 10 0 11 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 5 20 rec fishing 3 1 2 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 5422101030000113632140 57

Primarily concerns bird breeding and feeding, shark aggregation/breeding, seagrass productivity/fish nursery

Data quality G12 Suspended sediments from dredging impacts seagrass productivity and fish nursery Medium H12 Sediments smother seagrass leaves and affect productivity Low J12 Oil/dispersant released from dredging could affect bird feeding/breeding Medium U12 Wave/Current changes in southern part bay could affect pelagic food chain for birds, seagrass productivity Low J15 Oil spill from commercial fishing vessel could impact bird breeding/feeding, seagrass productivity Medium S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production/nursery function Low X15 Commercial fishing affects fish production available to birds, sharks Low J16 Significant oil spill could have major impact on bird breeding/feeding, seagrass productivity High J18 Oil spill from recreation/tourism vessel could impact bird breeding/feeding, seagrass productivity Medium S16 Introduction of marine pests from ballast water could affect food chain to birds, seagrass productivity Medium S18 Introduction of mammalian predators/weeds affects bird nesting, pest plants replacing seagrass (e.g. Caulerpa ) Medium T18 Physical disturbance of birds/nests from tourism/recreation on the islands Medium M19 Example is pilchard virus introduced by aquaculture, decimated pilchard population in PPB Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production/nursery function Low X20 Recreational fishing affects fish production available to birds, sharks Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A12. Threat assessment of Mud Islands for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

MUD ISLANDS EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 1 3 1 1200 0 14 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 0 0 0 2 0 7 16 shipping 0 0 4 4 0 1 0 0 9 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 1 2 33 10 0 11 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 5 20 rec fishing 3 1 2 6 21 Climate Change 2322322 16 542211103023221675214 0 72

Primarily concerns breeding area for colonially nesting birds, shark aggregation/breeding, seagrass productivity/fish nursery Data quality O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect plankton in food chain Low P21 Seas level rise could inundate much of the island s area Medium Q21 Increased UVB may have effect on plankton in food chain Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of food chain species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pests due to changed environment could affect food chain/seagrass production Medium T21 Physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity may affect bird breeding, seagrass production Medium U21 Changes to current patterns could affect planktonic food chain in southern part of bay Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Point Nepean segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP

A13. Threat assessment of Point Nepean for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Point Nepean EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 2 1 1200 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 3 3 20 rec fishing 3 2 0 1 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 655173092000110330020 57

This primarily concerns syngnathids (e.g. seadragons), abalone Data quality G12 Suspended sediments from dredging reduce light affecting Amphibolis habitat for Syngnathids Medium H12 Settled sediments from dredging reduce light affecting Amphibolis habitat for Syngnathids Medium J12 Oil/dispersant release associated with dredging could affect important species directly or through habitat Low U12 Changes to channels affect currents/waves impacting on important species directly or through habitat Medium M15 Translocation of Abalone virus would have major impact on population High S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in Amphibolis habitat for Syngnathids Medium J16 Significant oil spill in Heads would have major impact on important species directly and through habitat High S16 Introduction of marine pests could lead to change in Amphibolis habitat for syngnathids Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in Amphibolis habitat for Syngnathids Medium M19 Translocation of Abalone virus would have major impact on population High M20 Translocation of Abalone virus would have major impact on population High S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in Amphibolis habitat for Syngnathids Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A14. Threat assessment of Point Nepean for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Point Nepean EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 2 1 1200 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 3 3 20 rec fishing 3 2 0 1 6 21 Climate Change 2223312 15 655173092222313450020 71

This primarily concerns syngnathids (e.g. seadragons), abalone Data quality O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect calcareous shells (e.g. abalone larvae) Medium P21 Seas level rise could affect some intertidal species Medium Q21 Increased UVB may have negative effect on larvae (e.g. abalone, syngnathid) Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of key species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pests due to changed environment could affect species interactions Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Medium U21 Changes to current patterns could affect larval dispersal and recruitment Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A15. Threat assessment of Point Nepean for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Point Nepean EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWX Y SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 2 1 1200 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 0 0 0 2 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 4 3 0 0 0 0 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 0 2 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 65518300200011033004 0 51

This primarily concerns Amphibolis seagrass beds, macroalgal diversity Data quality G12 Suspended sediments from dredging reduce light affecting seagrass cover/algal diversity Medium H12 Settled sediments from dredging reduce light affecting seagrass cover/algal diversity Medium J12 Oil/dispersant release associated with dredging could reduce seagrass cover/algal diversity Low U12 Changes to channels affect currents/waves with consequent impact on seagrass/macroalgae Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in seagrass cover/ algal diversity (e.g. Caulerpa , Undaria ) Medium X15 Commercial fishing of predators has top-down effects on seagrass/algal diversity (e.g. increased urchins) Low J16 Significant oil spill in heads would have catastrophic impact on seagrass beds/macroalgal diversity High S16 Introduction of marine pests could lead to change in seagrass cover/ algal diversity (e.g. Caulerpa , Undaria ) Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in seagrass cover/ algal diversity (e.g. Caulerpa , Undaria ) Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in seagrass cover/ algal diversity (e.g. Caulerpa , Undaria ) Medium X20 Recreational fishing of predators has top-down effects on seagrass/algal diversity (e.g. increased urchins) Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A16. Threat assessment of Point Nepean for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Point Nepean EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

o u p b

s B r

r igh

u m s m u

e V

l & t r l

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l wa

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ve i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r ra

r o t a s d t s y b

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h xt

n n altered /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater ab e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p de Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 2 1 1200 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 0 0 0 2 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 4 3 0 0 0 0 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 0 2 4 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 655183002232313550040 67

This primarily concerns Amphibolis seagrass beds, macroalgal diversity Data quality O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater on invertebrate shells could affect grazer, epiphyte balance Medium P21 Seas level rise could affect some intertidal habitats/communities Medium Q21 Increased UVB may have negative affect on shallow subtidal seagrass Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of key species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment could affect plant communities Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Medium U21 Changes to current patterns could affect seed dispersal and recruitment Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A17. Threat assessment of Point Nepean for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Point Nepean EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

lig

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo eb

n n altered /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater a d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ex Time frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWX Y SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 2 1 1200 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 0 0 0 2 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 0 2 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 655173002000110330040 50

This primarily concerns Amphibolis seagrass fish spawning/nursery function (e.g. Calamary), macroalgal primary productivity Data quality G12 Suspended sediments from dredging reduce light affecting seagrass/algal productivity Medium H12 Settled sediments from dredging reduce light affecting seagrass/algal productivity Medium J12 Oil/dispersant release associated with dredging could reduce seagrass/algal productivity Low U12 Changes to channels affect currents/waves with consequent impact on seagrass/macroalgal productivity Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in seagrass/algal productivity (e.g. Caulerpa , Undaria ) Low X15 Commercial fishing of predators has top-down effects on seagrass/algal productivity (e.g. increased urchins) Low J16 Significant oil spill in heads would have major impact on seagrass/macroalgal productivity High S16 Introduction of marine pests could lead to change in seagrass/algal productivity (e.g. Caulerpa , Undaria ) Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in seagrass/algal productivity (e.g. Caulerpa , Undaria ) Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in seagrass/algal productivity (e.g. Caulerpa , Undaria ) Low X20 Recreational fishing of predators has top-down effects on seagrass/algal productivity (e.g. increased urchins) Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A18. Threat assessment of Point Nepean for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Point Nepean EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 2 1 1200 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 0 0 0 2 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 0 2 4 21 Climate Change 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 17 655173002232313550040 66

This primarily concerns Amphibolis seagrass fish spawning/nursery function (e.g. Calamary), macroalgal primary productivity

Data quality O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater on invertebrate shells could impact grazers affecting algal productivity Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on ecosystem function (less intertidal) Medium Q21 Increased UVB affecting productivity of seagrass/algae intertidal and rockpools Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of key species (e.g. Calamary young stages) Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment could affect algal productivity Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Medium U21 Changes to current patterns could affect larval dispersal and recruitment (e.g. Calamary) Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Point Lonsdale segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP

A19. Threat assessment of Point Lonsdale for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

LONSDALE BIGHT EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 1 0 2 1 3300 0 13 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 7 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 3 3 20 rec fishing 3 2 0 1 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 65417309200019540020 58

This primarily concerns opisthobranch molluscs (i.e. nudibranchs), abalone, rare sessile invertebrate species Data quality G12 Suspended sediments from dredging reduce light affecting algal food production for abalone, clog filter feeders Low J12 Oil/dispersant release associated with dredging could affect important species directly or through habitat Medium T12 Dredging channel causes direct physical disturbance of rare sessile invertebrate species in canyon section High U12 Changes to channels affect currents/waves impacting on important species directly, i.e. invertebrate feeding Medium M15 Translocation of abalone virus would have major impact on population High S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to effects on rare species Low J16 Significant oil spill in heads would have major impact on important species directly and through habitat High S16 Introduction of marine pests could lead to predation, competition impact on rare species Medium S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to effects on rare species Medium M19 Translocation of abalone virus would have major impact on population High M20 Translocation of abalone virus would have major impact on population High S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to effects on rare species Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A20. Threat assessment of Point Lonsdale for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

LONSDALE BIGHT EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

S - - t

s d

: t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ve i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a tra

l c c

t bo u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater ex a A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p d Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 1 0 2 1 3300 0 13 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 7 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 3 3 20 rec fishing 3 2 0 1 6 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 654173092232312760020 74

This primarily concerns opisthobranch molluscs (i.e. nudibranchs), abalone, rare sessile invertebrate species Data quality O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater on invertebrate shells could affect mollusc, coral species etc. Low P21 Seas level rise and increased depth over platform could affect intertidal species Medium Q21 Increased UVB may have negative effect on eggs/larvae of key species Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of key species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment could affect rare species Medium T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Changes to current patterns could affect seed invertebrate larval dispersal and recruitment Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A21. Threat assessment of Point Lonsdale for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

LONSDALE BIGHT EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t ter

s d

: t t e l d d a

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i ew

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris i v o act

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a tr

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave wave / altered currents d ex A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 3300 0 15 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 16 shipping 0 1 4 3 0 0 0 0 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 0 20 rec fishing 0 2 0 1 3 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 66518300200019540020 52

This primarily concerns canyon sessile invertebrate community, macroalgal diversity Data quality G12 Suspended sediments from dredging reduce light affecting algae, clogging of sessile invertebrates Medium H12 Settled sediments from dredging reduce light affecting algal diversity Low J12 Oil/dispersant release associated with dredging affects macroalgae diversity, invertebrate community Low T12 Dredging channel causes direct physical disturbance of listed sessile invertebrate community in canyon section High U12 Changes to channels affect currents/waves with consequent impact macroalgae, sessile invertebrates Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Medium J16 Significant oil spill in heads would have catastrophic impact on macroalgal diversity, sessile invertebrate community High S16 Introduction of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Medium S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A22. Threat assessment of Point Lonsdale for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

LONSDALE BIGHT EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

o u p b

e gh

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ac i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

t xtr u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents e ab A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p d Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 3300 0 15 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 0 20 rec fishing 0 2 0 1 3 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 665173002232312760020 67

This primarily concerns canyon sessile invertebrate community, macroalgal diversity Data quality O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater affect community where components have calcareous skeletons Low P21 Seas level rise and increased depth over platform could affect intertidal communities at Point Lonsdale Medium Q21 Increased UVB affecting seagrass/algae intertidal and rockpools Low R21 Increased temperature could exceed tolerances of community components Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment could affect algal and invertebrate communities Medium T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Changes to current patterns could affect habitat suitability for sessile community Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A23. Threat assessment of Point Lonsdale for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

LONSDALE BIGHT EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

e gh

s s B r

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r ov t a s d t s y b

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater ab de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 1 1 3300 0 14 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 0 20 rec fishing 0 2 0 1 3 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 66516300200019540020 50

This primarily concerns high productivity of the Canyon sessile invertebrate community

G12 Suspended sediments from dredging reduce light to algae and clog sessile invertebrates affecting productivity Data quality H12 Settled sediments block light to algae in shallow areas affecting productivity Medium T12 Dredging channel causes direct physical disturbance of sessile invertebrate productivity in canyon section Medium U12 Changes to channels affect currents/waves with consequent impact on sessile invertebrate productivity Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal productivity (e.g. Undaria ) low J16 Significant oil spill in Heads would have major impact on macroalgal/sessile invertebrate productivity Low S16 Introduction of marine pests could lead to change in algal/sessile invertebrate productivity High S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal productivity (e.g. Undaria ) Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal productivity (e.g. Undaria ) Low Low Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Consequence ratings: 0 = Insignificant, 1 = Minor, 2 = Moderate, 3 = Major, 4 = Catastrophic

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A24. Threat assessment of Point Lonsdale for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

LONSDALE BIGHT EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 1 1 3300 0 14 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 0 20 rec fishing 0 2 0 1 3 21 Climate Change 2323312 16 665163002232312660020 65

This primarily concerns Amphibolis seagrass fish spawning/nursery function (e.g. Calamary), macroalgal primary productivity

Data quality

O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could impact sessile invertebrates with CaCO 3 skeleton, affecting productivity Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on ecosystem function (less intertidal) Medium Q21 Increased UVB affecting productivity of seagrass/algae intertidal and rockpools Low R21 Increased temperature could exceed tolerances of sessile invertebrates, affecting productivity Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment could affect algal and invertebrate communities Low U21 Changes to current patterns could impact feeding by sessile invertebrates affecting productivity Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Popes Eye/Portsea Hole segments of the Port Phillip Heads MNP

A25. Threat assessment of Popes Eye/Portsea Hole for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

POPES_PORTSEA HOLE EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 1 1 1200 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 0 20 rec fishing 0 2 0 1 3 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 66516300200019330020 47

This primarily concerns canyon sessile invertebrate community, macroalgal diversity, fish community

Data quality G12 Suspended sediments from dredging reduce light affecting algae, clogging of sessile invertebrates Medium H12 Settled sediments from dredging reduce light affecting algal diversity Low U12 Changes to channels affect currents/waves with consequent impact macroalgae, sessile invertebrates Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Medium J16 Significant oil spill in Heads would have major impact on macroalgal diversity, sessile invertebrate community High S16 Introduction of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A26. Threat assessment of Popes Eye/Portsea Hole for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

POPES_PORTSEA HOLE EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

o u p b

e gh

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

t eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave wave / altered currents d e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 1 1 1200 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 0 1 3 21 Climate Change 2123322 15 665163002212312550020 61

This primarily concerns canyon sessile invertebrate community, macroalgal diversity, fish community Data quality O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater affect community where components have calcareous skeletons Low Q21 Increased UVB could affect fish eggs and larvae Low R21 Increased temperature could exceed tolerances of community components Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment could affect algal and invertebrate communities Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Changes to current patterns could affect habitat suitability for sessile community, fish larval dispersal Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Point Cooke MS

A27. Threat assessment of Point Cooke MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Point Cooke THREATS stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2221 10 1 1 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 2 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 2 0 0 2 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 1 1 1 1101 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 1 14 04 41 01 0 16 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 2 0 1 1 11 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 8 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 987494016300011364060 1 91

Primarily concerned with keys species: abalone, Ecklonia ,syngnathids, listed birds Data quality F5 Excess nutrients causing filamentous algal blooms; species affected by habitat change Medium F6 Excess nutrients from groundwater, Skeleton Crk, causing filamentous algal blooms Medium G6 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass, affecting Ecklonia , syngnathids Medium H6 Sediments from stormwater cause smothering of Ecklonia Low F8 Excess nutrients from agriculture in Skeleton Crk catchment, causing filamentous algal blooms Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from market gardens affect Ecklonia , seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low J9 Industrial spill into Skeleton Crk affects listed birds, syngnathids Medium G12 Suspended sediments affect light for Ecklonia , seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium H12 Sedimentation affects light for macro-algae and Ecklonia , seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium S14 Artificial reefs could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) affecting Ecklonia , abalone Low M15 Transfer of abalone virus by commercial fishing operations affects abalone population Medium S15 Commercial fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on listed birds, marine species High M16 Introduction of new pathogen affecting key species Low S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on key species Low M18 Transfer of abalone virus by tourism/boating operations affects abalone population Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low T18 Walkers, dogs on intertidal could affect listed birds, trample seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium M19 Transfer of abalone virus by aquaculture operations affects abalone population Medium M20 Transfer of abalone virus by recreational fishing operations affects abalone population Low S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium X20 Illegal harvesting could affect abalone population Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A28. Threat assessment of Point Cooke MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Point Cooke THREATS stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 stormwater 3 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 12 forestry 0 0 0 0 agriculture 2 1 1 2 1 0 7 industry non-sewage 0 2 0 0 2 air quality 1 0 0 1 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 1 1 1 1101 0 11 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 shipping 1 14 04 41 01 0 16 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 3 0 1 1 12 aquaculture 111 03 101000 8 rec fishing 3 2 1 6 Climate Change 3323322 18 10974940163332316 9 6 060 1 111

Primarily concerned with keys species: abalone, Ecklonia , syngnathids, listed birds Data quality F6 Increased population leads to increased nutrients in groundwater/Skeleton Creek Low G6 Increased population leads to increased suspended sediments in groundwater/Skeleton Creek Low T18 Increased population leads to increased disturbance of listed birds, trampling of intertidal species Medium O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect species with calcareous shells, e.g. abalone larvae Low P21 Effect of expected sea level rise depends on amount of structure preventing landward migration of intertidal for birds Low Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass; flow on affects on syngnathids Medium R21 Increased temperature could exceed tolerances of existing species, competition due to range changes Medium S21 Introduction of marine pests due to changed environment under climate change could affect key species Medium T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Changed waves and currents will affect larval transport and recruitment of key marine species Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A29. Threat assessment of Point Cooke MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Point Cooke THREATS stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2211 10 2 1 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 2 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 1 2 0 0 3 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 1 1 1 1101 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 1 14 00 41 010 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 1 1 8 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 20 rec fishing 0 2 1 3 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 997594004000113640631 81

Primarily concerned with macro-algal/seagrass communities and habitats Data quality F5 Excess nutrients causing filamentous algal blooms, potential impact on macro-algal/seagrass habitat Medium F6 Excess nutrients from groundwater, Skeleton Crk, causing filamentous algal blooms Medium G6 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass Medium N6 Lower salinity with stormwater runoff in Skeleton Crk Low F8 Excess nutrients from groundwater, Skeleton Crk, causing filamentous algal blooms Medium G8 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass habitat Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from market gardens affect macroalgae/seagrass habitat Low J9 Industrial spill into Skeleton Crk affects intertidal algal/seagrass habitat, invertebrate community Medium H11 Breakwalls, piers etc. can lead to changed coastal sediment transport and potential smothering Medium G12 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass habitat Medium H12 Sedimentation affects light for macro-algae and seagrass habitat Medium S14 Installation of artificial reefs could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low S15 Commercial fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on macroalgae/seagrass on intertidal/shallow subtidal High S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on community composition/habitat Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low T18 Trampling on intertidal could affect seagrass habitat/invertebrate community Medium S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium X20 Illegal harvesting of invertebrates (e.g. abalone) could affect invertebrate community structure Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A30. Threat assessment of Point Cooke MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Point Cooke THREATS stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater

A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 3311 10 2 1 12 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 1 0 0 1 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 3 1 1 0 0 6 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 3 1 1 1 1101 0 13 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 1 14 00 41 01 0 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 1 1 8 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 20 rec fishing 0 2 1 3 6 21 Climate Change 3323323 19 10119483004332316 8 7 063 1 101

Primarily concerned with macro-algal/seagrass communities and habitats Data quality F6 Increased population leads to increased nutrients in groundwater/Skeleton Creek Low G6 Increased population leads to increased suspended sediments in Skeleton Creek Low H11 Potential increase in coastal infrastructure with population increase, possible port expansion Low G12 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass habitat- possible port expansion in area Low H12 Sedimentation affects light for macro-algae and seagrass habitat - possible port expansion in area Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Effect of expected sea level rise depends on amount of structure preventing landward migration of algae/seagrass Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Medium R21 Increased temperature could exceed tolerances of existing seagrass/species, increased intertidal desiccation Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Changed waves and currents will affect erosion/sedimentation and also larval transport/recruitment Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A31. Threat assessment of Point Cooke MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Point Cooke THREATS stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2211 10 1 1 9 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 1 2 0 0 3 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 1 1 1 1101 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 1 13 00 41 01 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 7 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 20 rec fishing 0 2 1 1 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 997583003000113540611 75

Primarily concerned with macro-algal/seagrass productivity, food chain for birds Data quality F5 Excess nutrients causing filamentous algal blooms, potential impact on macro-algal/seagrass production Medium F6 Excess nutrients from groundwater, Skeleton Crk, causing filamentous algal blooms affecting plant productivity Medium G6 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass productivity Medium F8 Excess nutrients from groundwater, Skeleton Crk, causing filamentous algal blooms affecting plant productivity Medium G8 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass productivity Medium J9 Industrial spill into Skeleton Crk affects intertidal algal/seagrass productivity Low H11 Coastal structures can lead to changed coastal sediment transport and potential smothering affecting productivity Low G12 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass habitat Medium H12 Sedimentation affects light for macro-algae and seagrass productivity Medium S14 Installation of artificial reefs could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low S15 Commercial fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on macroalgae/seagrass productivity, food chain to birds High S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on plant productivity, food chain to birds Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium S19 Installation of aquaculture infrastructure could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria ) into the area Medium S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A32. Threat assessment of Point Cooke MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Point Cooke THREATS stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 3311 10 1 1 11 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 1 2 0 0 3 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 3 1 1 0 0 6 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 1 1 1 1101 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 1 1 3 0 0 4 1 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 7 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 20 rec fishing 0 2 1 1 4 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 1010858300323231676061 1 94

Primarily concerned with macro-algal/seagrass productivity, food chain for birds Data quality F6 Increased population leads to increased nutrients in groundwater/skeleton creek Low G6 Increased population leads to increased suspended sediments in Skeleton Creek Low H11 Potential increase in coastal infrastructure with population increase, possible port expansion Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Effect of expected sea level rise depends on amount of structure preventing landward migration of algae/seagrass Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass productivity Medium R21 Increased temperature could exceed tolerances of existing seagrass/species, increased intertidal desiccation Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Changed waves and currents will affect erosion/sedimentation and also larval transport/recruitment Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Jawbone MS

A33. Threat assessment of Jawbone MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Jawbone THREATS stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 3311 10 2 2 13 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 2 2 0 0 4 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 1 1 1 1101 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 1 14 04 41 01 0 16 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 2 0 1 1 11 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 3 9 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 9976930134000113640731 95

Primarily concerned with listed birds, Ecklonia , abalone, syngnathids Data quality F5 Excess nutrients causing filamentous algal blooms, potential impact on Ecklonia , syngnathid habitat Medium F6 Excess nutrients from drains, Kororoit Crk, causing filamentous algal blooms Medium G6 Suspended sediments from drains, Kororoit Crk, affect light for Ecklonia , syngnathid habitat Medium N6 Lower salinity with drains, Kororoit Crk, affects marine species Low W6 Debris from drains, Kororoit creek affects listed birds Low I9 Chronic and pulsed heavy metal pollution from Kororoit Crk affects listed birds Medium J9 Chronic and pulsed oil pollution from Kororoit Crk affects important species Medium H11 Breakwalls, piers etc. can lead to changed coastal sediment transport and potential smothering Medium G12 Suspended sediments affect light for Ecklonia , syngnathid habitat High H12 Sedimentation affects light for Ecklonia and syngnathid habitat Medium S14 Installation of artificial reefs could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low M15 Transfer of abalone virus by commercial fishing operations affects abalone population Medium S15 Commercial fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on listed birds, marine species High M16 Introduction of new pathogen affecting key species Low S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on existing species populations Low M18 Transfer of abalone virus by tourism/boating operations affects abalone population Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low T18 Human recreation disturbs listed birds Medium M20 Transfer of abalone virus by recreational fishing operations affects abalone population Low S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium X20 Illegal harvesting of invertebrates (e.g. abalone, mussels) could affect viability of populations Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A34. Threat assessment of Jawbone MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Jawbone THREATS stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T U VWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 3311 10 3 2 14 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 2 2 0 0 4 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 3 1 1 1 1101 0 13 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 1 14 04 41 01 0 16 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 2 0 1 1 11 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 3 9 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 910 869 3 013523 2 316 8 6 073 1 114

Primarily concerned with listed birds, Ecklonia , abalone, syngnathids Data quality N6 Pulsed freshwater flows with increased storms under climate change affect marine species Medium G12 Suspended sediments affect light for Ecklonia /syngnathid habitat- possible port expansion in area Low H12 Sedimentation affects light for Ecklonia /syngnathid habitat - possible port expansion in area Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce habitat for listed birds depending on shoreline obstructions Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass habitat for syngnathids, larvae of marine species Medium R21 Increased temperature could exceed physiological tolerances, cause range changes and species competition Medium S21 Introduction of pest plants due to changed environment under climate change competing with key species Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Changed waves and currents will affect larval transport/recruitment of important marine species Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A35. Threat assessment of Jawbone MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Jawbone THREATS stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 3311 10 2 1 12 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 1 2 0 0 3 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 1 1 1 1101 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 1 14 00 41 01 0 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 1 1 8 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 20 rec fishing 0 2 1 2 5 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 997593004000113640621 79

Primarily concerned with macro-algal/seagrass communities and habitats Data quality F5 Excess nutrients causing filamentous algal blooms, potential impact on macro-algal/seagrass habitat Medium F6 Excess nutrients from drains, Kororoit Crk, causing filamentous algal blooms Medium G6 Suspended sediments from drains, Kororoit Crk, affect light for macro-algae/seagrass habitat Medium N6 Lower salinity with drains, Kororoit Crk, affects plant communities/habitats Low J9 Chronic and pulsed pollution from Kororoit Crk affects intertidal algal/seagrass habitat Medium H11 Breakwalls, piers etc. can lead to changed coastal sediment transport and potential smothering Medium G12 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass habitat High H12 Sedimentation affects light for macro-algae and seagrass habitat Medium S14 Installation of artificial reefs could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low S15 Commercial fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria, Asterias) into the area Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on macroalgae/seagrass on intertidal/shallow subtidal High S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major affect on community composition/habitat Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low T18 Trampling on intertidal could affect seagrass habitat/invertebrate community Medium S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium X20 Illegal harvesting of invertebrates (e.g. abalone, mussels) could affect invertebrate community structure Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A36. Threat assessment of Jawbone MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Jawbone THREATS stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T U VWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 3311 10 3 1 13 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 1 2 0 0 3 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 3 1 1 1 1101 0 13 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 1 14 00 41 01 0 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 1 1 8 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 20 rec fishing 0 2 1 2 5 21 Climate Change 2323323 18 9108593005232316870621 99

Primarily concerned with macro-algal/seagrass communities and habitats Data quality N6 Pulsed freshwater flows with increased storms under climate change Medium G12 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass habitat- possible port expansion in area Low H12 Sedimentation affects light for macro-algae and seagrass habitat - possible port expansion in area Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Affect of expected sea level rise depends on amount of structure preventing landward migration of algae/seagrass Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Medium R21 Increased temperature could exceed tolerances of existing seagrass/algae, increased intertidal desiccation Medium S21 Introduction of pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass/algae Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Changed waves and currents will affect erosion/sedimentation and also larval transport/recruitment Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A37. Threat assessment of Jawbone MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Jawbone THREATS stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2211 10 2 1 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 1 2 0 0 3 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 1 1 1 1101 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 1 13 00 41 01 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 7 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 20 rec fishing 0 2 1 1 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 887583004000113540611 74

Primarily concerned with macro-algal/seagrass productivity and food productivity for birds Data quality F5 Excess nutrients causing filamentous algal blooms, potential impact on macro-algal/seagrass productivity Medium F6 Nutrients from drains, Kororoit Crk, causing algal blooms affecting plant productivity/ food chain to birds Medium G6 Suspended sediments from drains, Kororoit Crk, affect light for macro-algae/seagrass productivity, food chain to birds Medium N6 Lower salinity with drains, Kororoit Crk, affects plant productivity, food chain for birds Low J9 Chronic and pulsed pollution from Kororoit Crk affects intertidal plant productivity, food chain for birds Medium H11 Breakwalls, piers etc. can lead to changed coastal sediment transport and potential smothering Medium G12 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass productivity, food chain for birds High H12 Sedimentation affects light for macro-algae/seagrass productivity, food chain for birds Medium S14 Installation of artificial reefs could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low S15 Commercial fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on macroalgae/seagrass productivity, food chain for birds High S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major affect on plant productivity/food chain for birds Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A38. Threat assessment of Jawbone MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Jawbone THREATS stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2211 10 3 1 11 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 1 2 0 0 3 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 3 1 1 1 1101 0 13 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 1 13 00 41 01 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 7 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 5 20 rec fishing 0 2 1 1 4 21 Climate Change 2332321 16 898583005233216750611 92

Primarily concerned with macro-algal/seagrass productivity and food productivity for birds

Data quality N6 Pulsed freshwater flows with increased storms under climate change Medium G12 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass habitat- possible port expansion in area Low H12 Sedimentation affects light for macro-algae and seagrass habitat - possible port expansion in area Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Affect of expected sea level rise on intertidal plant productivity/ bird feeding depends on amount of structure Low Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass productivity Medium R21 Increased temperature could affect plant productivity Medium S21 Introduction of pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could affect plant productivity Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Ricketts Point MS

A39. Threat assessment of Ricketts Point MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Ricketts THREATS stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 2211 10 2 1 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 1 1 0 0 2 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 1 1 1 1101 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 1 14 04 41 01 0 16 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 2 0 1 1 11 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 6 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 3 9 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 7875830134000114640631 90

Primarily concerned with southern hooded shrimp, abalone, Sargassum /Ecklonia , syngnathids, listed birds

Data quality F6 Excess nutrients from drains, Yarra River, causing epiphytes affecting kelp species, abalone/syngnathid habitat Medium G6 Suspended sediments from drains, Yarra River, affect light for kelp species, syngnathid habitat Medium N6 Lower salinity with drains, Yarra River, affects important marine species Low H11 Breakwalls, beach renourishment etc. can lead to changed coastal sediment transport and potential smothering Medium G12 Suspended sediments affect light for kelp species, syngnathid habitat Medium H12 Possible smothering by settled sediments affecting soft sediments (shrimp) and species dependent on plants Low S14 Installation of artificial reefs could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low M15 Transfer of abalone virus by commercial fishing operations affects abalone population Medium S15 Commercial fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on important species on intertidal/shallow subtidal High M16 Introduction of new pathogen affecting key species Low S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on important species Low M18 Transfer of abalone virus by tourism/boating operations affects abalone population Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low T18 Physical disturbance of birds (by dogs etc.) and disturbance of marine species by fossicking Medium S19 Installation of aquaculture infrastructure could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria ) into the area Medium M20 Transfer of abalone virus by recreational fishing operations affects abalone population Low S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium X20 Illegal harvesting of invertebrates (e.g. abalone, mussels) could affect populations Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A40. Threat assessment of Ricketts Point MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Ricketts THREATS stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 2211 10 3 1 11 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 1 1 0 0 2 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 1 1 1 1101 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 1 1 4 0 4 4 1 0 1 0 16 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 2 0 1 1 11 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 6 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 3 9 21 Climate Change 3322332 18 787583013533221796063 1 108

Primarily concerned with southern hooded shrimp, abalone, Sargassum /Ecklonia , syngnathids, listed birds Data quality N6 More pulsed freshwater flows with increased storms affecting important marine species Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect invertebrate species (abalone, shrimp) Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce habitat for listed birds, intertidal species given shoreline obstructions Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass habitat for syngnathids, larvae of marine species Medium R21 Increased temperature could exceed physiological tolerances, cause range changes and species competition Medium S21 Introduction of pest plants due to changed environment under climate change competing with key species Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Changed waves and currents will affect larval transport/recruitment of important marine species Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A41. Threat assessment of Ricketts Point MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Ricketts THREATS stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 2211 10 2 1 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 1 1 0 0 2 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 1 1 1 1 1101 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 1 14 00 41 01 0 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 1 1 8 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 6 20 rec fishing 0 2 1 2 5 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 786583004000114740621 76

Primarily concerned with macro-algal/seagrass communities and habitats Data quality F6 Excess nutrients from drains, Yarra River, causing algal blooms Medium G6 Suspended sediments from drains, Yarra River, affect light for macro-algae/seagrass habitat Medium N6 Lower salinity with drains, Yarra River, affects plant communities/habitats Low H11 Breakwalls, beach renourishment etc. can lead to changed coastal sediment transport and potential smothering Medium G12 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass habitat Medium S14 Installation of artificial reefs could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low S15 Commercial fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on macroalgae/seagrass on intertidal/shallow subtidal High S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on community composition/habitat Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low T18 Trampling on intertidal could affect intertidal algae/invertebrate community Medium S19 Installation of aquaculture infrastructure could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria ) into the area Medium S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium X20 Illegal harvesting of invertebrates (e.g. abalone, mussels) could affect invertebrate community structure Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A42. Threat assessment of Ricketts Point MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Ricketts THREATS stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 3 1 11 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 1 1 0 0 2 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 1 1 1 1 1101 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 1 14 00 41 01 0 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 1 1 8 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 6 20 rec fishing 0 2 1 2 5 21 Climate Change 2323323 18 786583005232317870621 93

Primarily concerned with macro-algal/seagrass communities and habitats Data quality N6 Pulsed freshwater flows with increased storms under climate change Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Sea level rise likely to reduce intertidal habitats due to shoreline obstructions Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Medium R21 Increased temperature could exceed tolerances of existing seagrass/algae, increased intertidal desiccation Medium S21 Introduction of pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass/algae Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Changed waves and currents will affect erosion/sedimentation and also larval transport/recruitment Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A43. Threat assessment of Ricketts Point MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Ricketts THREATS stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 2211 10 2 1 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 1 1 0 0 2 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 1 1 1 1 1101 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 1 13 00 31 01 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 1 1 8 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 6 20 rec fishing 0 2 1 1 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 786573004000113640611 72

Primarily concerned with macro-algal/seagrass productivity and food productivity for birds Data quality F6 Excess nutrients from drains, Yarra River, causing algal blooms Medium G6 Suspended sediments from drains, Yarra River, affect light for macro-algae/seagrass productivity Medium N6 Lower salinity with drains, Yarra River, affects plant productivity Low H11 Breakwalls, beach renourishment etc. can lead to changed coastal sediment transport and potential smothering Medium G12 Suspended sediments affect light for macro-algae/seagrass productivity Medium S14 Installation of artificial reefs could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low S15 Commercial fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on macroalgae/seagrass productivity on intertidal/shallow subtidal High S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on community composition/habitat Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low T18 Trampling on intertidal could affect intertidal algae/invertebrate community Medium S19 Installation of aquaculture infrastructure could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria ) into the area Medium S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A44. Threat assessment of Ricketts Point MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Ricketts THREATS stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

lig

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t

s d

e n : t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

c s

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ac ri i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y o

d d l i a

l c c

t xtr u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents e d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T U VWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 2211 10 3 1 11 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 1 1 0 0 2 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 1 1 1 1 1101 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 2 1 1 1 5 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 1 13 00 31 01 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 1 1 8 19 aquaculture 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 6 20 rec fishing 0 2 1 1 4 21 Climate Change 2323321 16 786573005232316850611 88

Primarily concerned with macro-algal/seagrass productivity and food productivity for birds Data quality N6 Pulsed freshwater flows with increased storms under climate change Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Sea level rise likely to reduce intertidal plant productivity, bird feeding due to shoreline obstructions Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass productivity Medium R21 Increased temperature could affect plant productivity Medium S21 Introduction of pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could affect plant productivity Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Yaringa MNP

A45. Threat assessment of Yaringa MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Yaringa threats stressor

p s

e n l

i s e

o i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

s e

t p

r h

e p

i o u p b

s B r

r i

c l

u m s m u

e V

e i

l & t r

s s e

& s

p d s

a U t

a i e

- - t t

S s

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 2221 10 2 0 10 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 00400 40000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 897183003000113430020 62

This primarily concerns syngnathids, pale mangrove goby (PMG), listed birds Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting syngnathids through habitat loss Medium G6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting syngnathids through habitat loss Medium H6 Sediment from stormwater settling on seagrass blades affects syngnathids though habitat loss Low N6 Reduced salinity from stormwater affects syngnathids through habitat loss Low F8 Nutrients from market gardens/ Watsons creek cause epiphyte smothering of seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium G8 Sediments from Watsons Creek may affect light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting syngnathids though habitat loss Low H11 Greater sedimentation of seagrass/mangroves affecting habitat for syngnathids, PMG Low U11 Increased erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass/mangroves habitat for syngnathids, PMG Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments affecting light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments affecting light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with dredging and port development affecting listed birds and fish Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium J16 Significant oil spill from ships entering Port of Hastings could affect listed birds and fish High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on listed fish and associated habitat Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium T18 Disturbance from boats affecting listed birds Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A46. Threat assessment of Yaringa MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Yaringa threats stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 3321 10 2 0 12 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 0 1 2 0 0 9 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 3 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 12 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 2323323 18 9119183003232316660020 84

This primarily concerns syngnathids, pale mangrove goby (PMG), listed birds Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium G6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium H11 Coastal development could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass leaves/mangroves affecting syngnathids/PMG Low H12 Port development could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass leaves/mangroves affecting syngnathids/PMG Medium O21 Increased acidity of seawater could affect grazers allowing algal overgrowth of syngnathid habitat Low P21 Sea level rise could reduce intertidal habitat for listed birds, PMG Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass, reducing habitat for syngnathids Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal for existing species; range changes lead to competition Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest due to changed environment under climate change could lead to increased competition Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Altered currents may affect dispersal and recruitment of listed marine species Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A47. Threat assessment of Yaringa MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Yaringa threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 2220 10 2 0 9 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 897084003000113430020 62

This primarily concerns seagrass beds, mangroves, invertebrate communities Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass Medium G6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass Medium H6 Sediment from stormwater settling on seagrass blades affects seagrass cover Low N6 Reduced salinity from stormwater affects seagrass habitat Low F8 Nutrients from market gardens/ Watsons creek cause epiphyte smothering of seagrass Medium G8 Sediments from Watsons Creek may affect light for seagrass Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from agriculture/market gardens may affect seagrass habitat Low G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass Low H11 Coastal development could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass leaves Low U11 Coastal development will change patterns of erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass/mangroves Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from Port of Hastings development affecting light for seagrass Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments from Port of Hastings development affecting light for seagrass Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with Hastings Port development Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium J16 Significant oil spill from ships entering Port of Hastings could affect seagrass/mangroves High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass/invertebrate communities Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A48. Threat assessment of Yaringa MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Yaringa threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 3320 10 2 0 11 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 0 1 2 0 0 9 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 0 0 4 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 9118084003232316550020 81

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A49. Threat assessment of Yaringa MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Yaringa threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

e gh

s s B r

o u m s m u

e V

l & t li r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ac i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a tr

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n underwater noise underwater altered /wave altered currents ex d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 3220 10 2 0 10 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 16 shipping 00300 40000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 4 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 2 0 1 3 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 997073003000110330020 57

This primarily concerns primary productivity from seagrass/mangroves, food chain for birds Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass productivity, food chain to birds Medium G6 Suspended sediments will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass productivity Medium H6 Sediment from stormwater settling on seagrass/mangroves affects primary productivity, food chain for birds Low N6 Reduced salinity from stormwater affects seagrass/mangrove productivity, food chain for birds Low F8 Nutrients from market gardens/ Watsons creek cause epiphyte growth reducing seagrass productivity Medium G8 Sediments from Watsons Creek may affect light for seagrass productivity Medium G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass productivity Low H11 Coastal development could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass/mangroves affecting productivity, food chain Low U11 Coastal development will change patterns of erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass/mangroves Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from port development and dredging affecting light for seagrass productivity Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments affecting seagrass/mangrove productivity, food chain for birds Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with Port development, dredging Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production Medium J16 Significant oil spill from ships entering Port of Hastings could affect seagrass/mangrove productivity, food chain for birds High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass productivity, food for birds Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A50. Threat assessment of Yaringa MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Yaringa threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T U VWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 3320 10 2 0 11 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 3 3 1 1 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 0 1 2 0 0 9 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 3 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 12 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 16 shipping 00300 40000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 4 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 2 0 1 3 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 9129073003232313550020 78

This primarily concerns primary productivity from seagrass/mangroves, food chain for birds Data quality G6 Suspended sediments will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass productivity Medium F8 Nutrients from market gardens/ Watsons creek cause epiphyte growth reducing seagrass productivity Medium G8 Sediments from Watsons Creek may affect light for seagrass productivity Medium G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass productivity Low H11 Coastal development could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass/mangroves affecting productivity, food chain Low H12 Potentially increased settled sediments affecting seagrass/mangrove productivity, food chain for birds Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Sea level rise will affect intertidal plant productivity including seagrass, mangroves and saltmarsh Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass productivity Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances for seagrass/mangrove productivity Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the French Island MNP

A51. Threat assessment of French Island MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

French Island threats stressor

p s

e n l

i s e

o i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

s e

t p

r h

e p

i o u p b

s B r

r i

c l

u m s m u

e V

e i

l & t r

s s e

& s

p d s

a U t

a i e

- - t t

S s

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 2221 10 1 0 9 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 00400 40000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 797183002000113430020 60

This primarily concerns syngnathids, pale mangrove goby (PMG), listed birds Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from urban development affecting syngnathids through habitat loss Medium G6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from urban development affecting syngnathids through habitat loss Medium H6 Sediment from stormwater settling on seagrass blades affects syngnathids though habitat loss, PMG habitat Low F8 Nutrients from agriculture cause epiphyte smothering of seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium G8 Sediments from agriculture may affect light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting syngnathids though habitat loss Low H11 Greater sedimentation of seagrass/mangroves affecting habitat for syngnathids, PMG Low U11 Increased erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass/mangroves habitat for syngnathids, PMG Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments affecting light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments affecting light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with dredging and port development affecting listed birds and fish Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium J16 Significant oil spill from ships entering port could affect listed birds and fish High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on listed fish and associated habitat Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium T18 Disturbance from boats affecting listed birds Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A52. Threat assessment of French Island MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

French Island threats stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T U VWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 3321 10 2 0 12 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 3 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 12 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 3 0 0 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 2323323 18 8108183003232316760020 82

This primarily concerns syngnathids, pale mangrove goby (PMG), listed birds Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium G6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium N6 Increased storm events leads to lower salinity from stormwater affects seagrass habitat for syngnathids, PMG habitat Low H12 Port development could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass leaves/mangroves affecting syngnathids/PMG Medium T18 Increased disturbance of listed birds from human recreation activities with increased population Medium O21 Increased acidity of seawater could affect grazers allowing algal overgrowth of syngnathid habitat Low P21 Sea level rise could reduce intertidal habitat for listed birds, PMG Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass, reducing habitat for syngnathids Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal for existing species; range changes lead to competition Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest due to changed environment under climate change could lead to increased competition Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Altered currents may affect dispersal and recruitment of listed marine species Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A53. Threat assessment of French Island MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

French Island threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 2220 10 1 0 8 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 897084002000113430020 61

This primarily concerns seagrass beds, mangroves, invertebrate communities Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass Medium G6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass Medium H6 Sediment from stormwater settling on seagrass blades affects seagrass cover Low F8 Nutrients from agriculture cause epiphyte smothering of seagrass Medium G8 Sediments from agriculture may affect light for seagrass Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from agriculture may affect seagrass habitat Low G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass Low H11 Coastal development could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass leaves Low U11 Coastal development will change patterns of erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass/mangroves Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from port development affecting light for seagrass Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments from port development affecting light for seagrass Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with port development Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium J16 Significant oil spill from ships entering port could affect seagrass/mangroves High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass/invertebrate communities Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A54. Threat assessment of French Island MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

French Island threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 3320 10 2 0 11 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 3 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 12 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 910808400323231655002 0 80

This primarily concerns seagrass beds, mangroves, invertebrate communities Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from urban development areas affecting seagrass Medium G6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from urban development areas affecting seagrass Medium N6 Pulsed rainfall events cause low salinity affecting seagrass Low H12 Port development / dredging leads to increased settled sediments affecting syngnathid, PMG habitat Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Sea level rise will affect intertidal habitat including seagrass, mangroves and saltmarsh Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of existing seagrass species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A55. Threat assessment of French Island MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

French Islands threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 3 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 9 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 16 shipping 00300 40000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 4 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 2 0 1 3 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 897073002000110330020 55

This primarily concerns primary productivity from seagrass/mangroves, food chain for birds Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from urban development affecting seagrass productivity, food chain to birds Medium G6 Suspended sediments will enter with stormwater from urban development affecting seagrass productivity Medium H6 Sediment from stormwater settling on seagrass/mangroves affects primary productivity, food chain for birds Low F8 Nutrients from agriculture cause epiphyte growth reducing seagrass productivity Medium G8 Sediments in catchment from agriculture may affect light for seagrass productivity Medium G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass productivity Low H11 Coastal development could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass/mangroves affecting productivity, food chain Low U11 Coastal development will change patterns of erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass/mangroves Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from Port development and dredging affecting light for seagrass productivity Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments affecting seagrass/mangrove productivity, food chain for birds Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with Port development, dredging Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production Medium J16 Significant oil spill from ships entering port could affect seagrass/mangrove productivity, food chain for birds High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass productivity, food for birds Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A56. Threat assessment of French Island MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

French Islands threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 3 3 2 0 1 0 2 0 11 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 3 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 12 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 16 shipping 00300 40000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 4 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 2 0 1 3 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 8108073003232313550020 74

This primarily concerns primary productivity from seagrass/mangroves, food chain for birds Data quality G6 Suspended sediments will enter with stormwater from urban development affecting seagrass productivity Medium N6 Reduced salinity from stormwater affects seagrass/mangrove productivity, food chain for birds Low H12 Potentially increased settled sediments affecting seagrass/mangrove productivity, food chain for birds Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Sea level rise will affect intertidal plant productivity including seagrass, mangroves and saltmarsh Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass productivity Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances for seagrass/mangrove productivity Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Churchill Island MNP

A57. Threat assessment of Churchill Island MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Churchill Island threats stressor

p s

e n l

i s e

o i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

s e

t p

r h

e p

i o u p b

s B r

r i

c l

u m s m u

e V

e i

l & t r

s s e

& s

p d s

a U t

a i e

- - t t

S s

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 2221 10 1 0 9 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 887183002000113430020 60

This primarily concerns syngnathids, listed birds, also brachiopods (lampshells) and sea pens Data quality F5 Nutrients from outfalls, septic tanks affecting syngnathids through habitat loss Low F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from urban development affecting syngnathids through habitat loss Low G6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from urban development affecting syngnathids through habitat loss Medium H6 Settled sediment from stormwater affects syngnathids though seagrass loss, smothers lampshells, sea pens Low F8 Nutrients from agriculture cause epiphyte smothering of seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium G8 Sediments from agriculture may affect light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting syngnathids though habitat loss Low H11 Greater sedimentation of seagrass affecting habitat for syngnathids, lampshells, sea pens Low U11 Increased erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments affecting light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments affecting seagrass habitat for syngnathids, clogging of lampshells, sea pens Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with dredging and port development affecting listed birds and fish Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia replacing seagrass, Asterias affecting invertebrates Medium J16 Significant oil spill from ships entering port could affect listed birds and fish High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on listed fish and invertebrates Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia replacing seagrass, Asterias affecting invertebrates Medium T18 Disturbance from boats and shoreline recreation disturbs listed birds Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia replacing seagrass, Asterias affecting invertebrates Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A58. Threat assessment of Churchill Island MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Churchill Island threats stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 3321 10 1 0 11 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 0 1 2 0 0 9 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 3 0 0 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 2323323 18 9108183002232316760020 82

This primarily concerns syngnathids, pale mangrove goby (PMG), listed birds Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from urban development affecting seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium G6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from urban development affecting seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low G12 Coastal development leading to sedimentation of seagrass habitat for syngnathids; clogging of lampshells, sea pens Low T18 Increased disturbance of listed birds from human recreation activities with increased population Medium O21 Increased acidity of seawater could affect grazers allowing algal overgrowth of syngnathid habitat Low P21 Sea level rise could reduce intertidal habitat for listed birds, invertebrates Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass, reducing habitat for syngnathids Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal for existing species; range changes lead to competition Medium S21 Establishment of marine pest due to changed environment under climate change could lead to increased competition Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Altered currents may affect dispersal and recruitment of listed marine species Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A59. Threat assessment of Churchill Island MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Churchill Island threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave / altered currents noise underwater

A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 2211 10 1 0 8 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 2 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 6 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 886184002000113420020 59

This primarily concerns seagrass beds, mangroves, intertidal invertebrate communities Data quality F5 Nutrients from Pyramid Rock outfall, septic tanks increasing epiphytes affecting seagrass Low F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from Newhaven/San remo/ Rhyll increasing epiphytes affecting seagrass Medium G6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from Newhaven/San remo/ Rhyll increasing epiphytes affecting seagrass Medium F8 Nutrients from agriculture cause epiphyte smothering of seagrass Medium G8 Sediments from agriculture may affect light for seagrass Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from agriculture may affect seagrass habitat Low G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass Low H11 Coastal development could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass leaves Low G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from Port development affecting light for seagrass Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments from Port development affecting light for seagrass Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with Port development Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium J16 Significant oil spill from ships entering Port could affect seagrass/mangroves High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass/invertebrate communities Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A60. Threat assessment of Churchill Island MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Churchill Island threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 3320 10 2 0 11 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 2 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 0 1 1 0 0 8 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 9108084003232316540020 79

This primarily concerns seagrass beds, mangroves, invertebrate communities Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from urban development areas affecting seagrass Medium G6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from urban development areas affecting light for seagrass Medium H6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from urban development areas smothering seagrass Low N6 Pulsed rainfall events cause low salinity affecting seagrass Low G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass Medium H11 Coastal development could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass leaves/mangroves Medium O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Effect of sea level rise may reduce intertidal basalt/shale habitat for invertebrates Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of existing seagrass species Medium S21 Establishment of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Medium T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A61. Threat assessment of Churchill Island MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Churchill Island threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 2220 10 1 0 8 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 887073002000113330020 57

This primarily concerns primary productivity from seagrass/mangroves, food chain for birds, seagrass nursery for fish Data quality F5 Nutrients from outfalls, septic tanks affecting seagrass productivity and nursery function, food chain to birds Low F6 Nutrients from urban development affecting seagrass productivity and nursery function, food chain to birds Medium G6 Suspended sediments from urban development affecting seagrass productivity and nursery function Medium H6 Sediment from stormwater settling on seagrass/mangroves affects productivity and nursery function, food chain for birds Low F8 Nutrients from agriculture cause epiphyte growth reducing seagrass productivity and nursery function Medium G8 Sediments in catchment from agriculture may affect light for seagrass productivity and nursery function Medium G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass productivity and nursery function Low H11 Coastal development could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass/mangroves affecting productivity, food chain Low U11 Coastal development will change patterns of erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass/mangrove productivity Medium G12 Increased suspended sediments from port development and dredging affecting light for seagrass productivity Medium H12 Increased settled sediments affecting seagrass/mangrove productivity and nursery function, food chain for birds Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with port development affecting productivity, nursery value and food chain Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production and nursery function Low J16 Significant oil spill from ships entering port could affect seagrass/mangrove productivity and nursery, food chain for birds High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass productivity, food for birds Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production and nursery function Low S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could affect primary production and nursery function Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A62. Threat assessment of Churchill Island MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Churchill Island threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T U VWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 3320 10 1 0 10 7 forestry 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 0 1 2 0 0 9 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 2 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 16 shipping 00300 40000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 0 1 4 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 9108073002232316550020 77

This primarily concerns primary productivity from seagrass/mangroves, food chain for birds, seagrass nursery for fish Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from urban development affecting seagrass productivity and nursery function Medium G6 Suspended sediments will enter with stormwater from urban development affecting seagrass productivity Medium G11 Coastal development will alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass productivity and nursery function Low H11 Coastal development could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass/mangroves affecting productivity, food chain Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Effect of sea level rise depends on amount of structure preventing landward migration of seagrass/mangroves Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass productivity Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances for seagrass/mangrove productivity Medium S21 Establishment of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Corner Inlet MNP

A63. Threat assessment of Corner Inlet MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Corner Inlet threats stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 1 1 2 8 agriculture 3 2 1 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 1 0 7 16 shipping 00400 40000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 2 0 1 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 886083002000113820020 61

This primarily concerns syngnathids, listed birds Data quality F5 Nutrients from septic tanks/secondary sewage treatment plants lead to loss of seagrass for syngnathids Medium F8 Nutrients from agriculture/dairy farming in catchment lead to loss of seagrass for syngnathids Medium G8 Suspended sediments from agriculture may cause loss of seagrass for syngnathids Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with Port/dredging activities listed fish/birds Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could mean less suitable habitat for syngnathids Medium T15 Vessels in transit may disturb listed birds Low J16 Significant oil spill from vessels entering Corner Inlet could affect birds, syngnathids High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on listed syngnathids, other key species Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could mean less suitable habitat for syngnathids Medium T18 Disturbance from boats and shoreline recreation disturbs listed birds Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could mean less suitable habitat for syngnathids Medium T20 Vessels in transit may disturb listed birds Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A64. Threat assessment of Corner Inlet MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Corner Inlet threats stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r igh

u m s m u

e V

l & t r l

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

c s

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ri i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

t eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave wave / altered currents d ab A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 1 1 2 8 agriculture 3 2 1 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 11 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 1 0 7 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 3 0 0 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 2 0 1 6 21 Climate Change 2323323 18 8860830022323161150020 79

This primarily concerns syngnathids, listed birds Data quality T18 Increasing human population leads to increased disturbance of listed birds by tourism/recreation Low O21 Increased acidity of seawater could affect grazers allowing algal overgrowth of syngnathid habitat Low P21 Sea level rise could reduce intertidal habitat for listed birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass, reducing habitat for syngnathids Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal for existing species; range changes lead to competition Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest due to changed environment under climate change could lead to increased competition Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Altered currents may affect dispersal and recruitment of listed marine species Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A65. Threat assessment of Corner Inlet MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Corner Inlet threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 1 1 2 8 agriculture 3 2 1 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 1 0 6 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 1 5 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 886083002000113520020 58

This primarily concerns seagrass beds, mangroves, invertebrate communities Data quality F5 Nutrients from septic tanks/secondary sewage treatment plants lead to epiphyte smothering of seagrass Medium F8 Nutrients from agriculture/dairy farming in catchment lead to epiphyte smothering of seagrass Medium G8 Suspended sediments from agriculture may affect light for seagrass Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with Port/dredging activities Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium J16 Significant oil spill from vessels entering Corner Inlet could affect seagrass/mangroves High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass/invertebrate communities Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A66. Threat assessment of Corner Inlet MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Corner Inlet threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 1 1 2 8 agriculture 3 2 1 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 1 0 6 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 1 5 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 886083002232316640020 73

This primarily concerns seagrass beds, mangroves, invertebrate communities Data quality O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Effect of sea level rise may affect depth suitability for seagrass species Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of existing seagrass species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A67. Threat assessment of Corner Inlet MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Corner Inlet threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 1 1 2 8 agriculture 3 2 1 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 7 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 2 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 886073002000113420040 58

This primarily concerns seagrss productivity and nursery for fish, food chain for birds Data quality F5 Nutrients from septic tanks/secondary sewage treatment plants lead to reduced seagrass productivity/nursery Medium F8 Nutrients from agriculture/dairy farming in catchment lead to reduced seagrass productivity/nursery Medium G8 Suspended sediments from agriculture may affect light for seagrass reducing productivity/nursery value Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass productivity/nursery value Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass productivity/nursery value Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium X15 Removal of large fish has flow on effect to grazers and seagrass productivity Low J16 Significant oil spill from vessels entering Corner Inlet could affect seagrass productivity/nursery, bird feeding High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass productivity/nursery Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium X20 Removal of large fish has flow on effect to grazers and seagrass productivity Low

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A68. Threat assessment of Corner Inlet MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Corner Inlet threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

lig

o u m s m u

e V

l & t

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

E - - t

s d

: t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y br

d d l i a tra

l c c

t bo u e e e i e n a a c e e h x

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave wave / altered currents de a A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 1 1 2 8 agriculture 3 2 1 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 7 16 shipping 00400 40000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 2 6 21 Climate Change 2423322 18 886073002242316640040 75

This primarily concerns seagrss productivity and nursery for fish, food chain for birds Data quality G6 Increased human population leads to increasing suspended sediments reducing seagrass productivity/nursery value Low H6 Increased human population increasing settled sediments reducing seagrass productivity/nursery value Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Sea level rise may affect intertidal productivity, feeding of listed birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of seagrass productivity Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

100

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Corner Inlet MCP

A69. Threat assessment of Corner Inlet M & C Park for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Corner Inlet M & C Park threats stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 2 2 4 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 12 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 2 0 1 2 0 9 16 shipping 00400 40000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 8108084002000113930240 72

This primarily concerns syngnathids, listed birds, recreational and commercially important fish Data quality F5 Nutrients from septic tanks/secondary sewage treatment plants lead to loss of seagrass for syngnathids Medium G7 Logging of plantations in catchment increasing suspended sediments causes loss of seagrass for syngnathids Low H7 Logging of plantations in catchment increasing settled sediments causes loss of seagrass for syngnathids Low F8 Nutrients from agriculture/dairy farming in catchment lead to loss of seagrass for syngnathids Medium G8 Suspended sediments from agriculture may cause loss of seagrass for syngnathids Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from agriculture may cause loss of seagrass for syngnathids Low G11 Coastal development (breakwalls etc.) could alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass for syngnathids Low H11 Coastal development (breakwalls etc.) could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass leaves affecting syngnathids Low U11 Coastal development will change patterns of erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass for syngnathids Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with Port/dredging activities listed fish/birds Low T12 Noise and light from dredging operations could disturb listed birds Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could mean less suitable habitat for syngnathids Medium T15 Vessels in transit may disturb listed birds Low X15 Effect of commercial fishing on populations of important species Low J16 Significant oil spill from vessels entering Corner Inlet could affect birds, syngnathids High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on listed syngnathids, other key species Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could mean less suitable habitat for syngnathids Medium T18 Disturbance from boats and shoreline recreation disturbs listed birds Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could mean less suitable habitat for syngnathids Medium T20 Vessels in transit may disturb listed birds Low X20 Effect of recreational fishing on populations of important species Low

101

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A70. Threat assessment of Corner Inlet M & C Park for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Corner Inlet M & C Park threats stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 2210 10 1 0 7 7 forestry 2 2 4 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 12 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 2 0 1 2 0 9 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 3 0 0 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2323323 18 9118084002232316126024 0 92

This primarily concerns syngnathids, listed birds, recreational and commercially important fish Data quality F6 Nutrients will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low G6 Sediments will enter with stormwater from development corridor affecting seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low T18 Increasing human population leads to increased disturbance of listed birds by tourism/recreation Low O21 Increased acidity of seawater could affect grazers allowing algal overgrowth of syngnathid habitat Low P21 Sea level rise could reduce intertidal habitat for listed birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass, reducing habitat for syngnathids Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal for existing species; range changes lead to competition Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest due to changed environment under climate change could lead to increased competition Medium T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Altered currents may affect dispersal and recruitment of listed marine species Low

102

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A71. Threat assessment of Corner Inlet M & C Park for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Corner Inlet M & C Park threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 2 2 4 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 2 0 8 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 2 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 8108084002000113630040 67

This primarily concerns seagrass beds, mangroves, invertebrate communities Data quality F5 Nutrients from septic tanks/secondary sewage treatment plants lead to epiphyte smothering of seagrass Medium G7 Logging of plantations in catchment increasing suspended sediments reducing light for seagrass Low H7 Logging of plantations in catchment increasing settled sediments reducing light for seagrass Low F8 Nutrients from agriculture/dairy farming in catchment lead to epiphyte smothering of seagrass Medium G8 Suspended sediments from agriculture may affect light for seagrass Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from agriculture may affect seagrass habitat Low G11 Coastal development (breakwalls etc.) could alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass Low H11 Coastal development (breakwalls etc.) could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass leaves Low U11 Coastal development will change patterns of erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass/mangroves Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with Port/dredging activities Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium T15 Haul seine nets, propeller damage may effect seagrass habitat Low X15 Trophic cascade effect of removing predatory fish results in increased epiphyte growth on seagrass Low J16 Significant oil spill from vessels entering Corner Inlet could affect seagrass/mangroves High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass/invertebrate communities Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium X20 Trophic cascade effect of removing predatory fish results in increased epiphyte growth on seagrass Low

103

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A72. Threat assessment of Corner Inlet M & C Park for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Corner Inlet M & C Park threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1220 10 1 0 7 7 forestry 2 2 4 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 2 0 8 16 shipping 00400 40 000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 2 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 8119084002232316850040 85

This primarily concerns seagrass beds, mangroves, invertebrate communities Data quality G6 Increased human population leads to increasing suspended sediments reducing light for seagrass Low H6 Increased human population increasing settled sediments reducing light for seagrass Low T20 Increase recreation fishing leads to increased propeller/anchor damage to seagrass beds Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Effect of sea level rise may effect depth suitability for seagrass species, habitat suitability for mangroves Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of existing seagrass species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

104

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A73. Threat assessment of Corner Inlet M & C Park for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Corner Inlet M & C Park threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 2 2 4 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 7 16 shipping 00400 40000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 2 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 8108074002000113430040 64

This primarily concerns seagrass productivity and nursery for fish, food chain for birds Data quality F5 Nutrients from septic tanks/secondary sewage treatment plants lead to reduced seagrass productivity/nursery Medium G7 Logging of plantations in catchment increasing suspended sediments reducing seagrass productivity/nursery Low H7 Logging of plantations in catchment increasing settled sediments reducing seagrass productivity/nursery Low F8 Nutrients from agriculture/dairy farming in catchment lead to reduced seagrass productivity/nursery Medium G8 Suspended sediments from agriculture may affect light for seagrass reducing productivity/nursery value Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from agriculture may affect seagrass productivity/nursery value Low G11 Coastal development (breakwalls etc.) could alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass productivity/nursery Low H11 Coastal development (breakwalls etc.) could lead to greater sedimentation reducing seagrass productivity/nursery Low U11 Coastal development will change patterns of erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass productivity/nursery Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass productivity/nursery value Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass productivity/nursery value Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium X15 Removal of large fish has flow on effect to grazers and seagrass productivity Low J16 Significant oil spill from vessels entering Corner Inlet could affect seagrass productivity/nursery, bird feeding High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass productivity/nursery Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium X20 Removal of large fish has flow on effect to grazers and seagrass productivity Low

105

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A74. Threat assessment of Corner Inlet M & C Park for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Corner Inlet M & C Park threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1220 10 1 0 7 7 forestry 2 2 4 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 7 16 shipping 00400 40000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 2 6 21 Climate Change 2423322 18 8119074002242316650040 83

This primarily concerns seagrass productivity and nursery for fish, food chain for birds Data quality G6 Increased human population leads to increasing suspended sediments reducing seagrass productivity/nursery value Low H6 Increased human population increasing settled sediments reducing seagrass productivity/nursery value Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Sea level rise may effect seagrass and mangrove productivity, feeding of listed birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of seagrass productivity Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Medium T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

106

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Nooramunga MCP

A75. Threat assessment of Nooramunga M & C Park for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Nooramunga M & C Park threats stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 2 2 4 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 12 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 2 0 1 2 0 9 16 shipping 00300 40000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 8108074002000113930240 71

This primarily concerns syngnathids, listed birds, recreational and commercially important fish Data quality F5 Nutrients from septic tanks/secondary sewage treatment plants lead to loss of seagrass for syngnathids Medium G7 Logging of plantations in catchment increasing suspended sediments causes loss of seagrass for syngnathids Low H7 Logging of plantations in catchment increasing settled sediments causes loss of seagrass for syngnathids Low F8 Nutrients from agriculture/dairy farming in catchment lead to loss of seagrass for syngnathids Medium G8 Suspended sediments from agriculture may cause loss of seagrass for syngnathids Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from agriculture may cause loss of seagrass for syngnathids Low G11 Coastal development (breakwalls etc.) could alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass for syngnathids Low H11 Coastal development (breakwalls etc.) could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass leaves affecting syngnathids Low U11 Coastal development will change patterns of erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass for syngnathids Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass habitat for syngnathids Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with port/dredging activities listed fish/birds Low T12 Noise and light from dredging operations could disturb listed birds Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could mean less suitable habitat for syngnathids Medium T15 Vessels in transit may disturb listed birds Low X15 Effect of commercial fishing on populations of important species Low J16 Significant oil spill from vessels entering Corner Inlet could affect birds, syngnathids High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on listed syngnathids, other key species Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could mean less suitable habitat for syngnathids Medium T18 Disturbance from boats and shoreline recreation disturbs listed birds Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could mean less suitable habitat for syngnathids Medium T20 Vessels in transit may disturb listed birds Low X20 Effect of recreational fishing on populations of important species Low

107

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A76. Threat assessment of Nooramunga M & C Park for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Nooramunga M & C Park threats stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 2 2 4 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 12 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 2 0 1 2 0 9 16 shipping 00300 40 000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 3 0 0 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2423323 19 8108074002242316126024 0 90

This primarily concerns syngnathids, listed birds, recreational and commercially important fish Data quality T18 Increasing human population leads to increased disturbance of listed birds by tourism/recreation Low O21 Increased acidity of seawater could affect grazers allowing algal overgrowth of syngnathid habitat Low P21 Sea level rise may inundate islands reducing intertidal habitat for listed birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass, reducing habitat for syngnathids Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal for existing species; range changes lead to competition Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest due to changed environment under climate change could lead to increased competition Medium T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Medium U21 Altered currents may affect dispersal and recruitment of listed marine species Medium

108

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A77. Threat assessment of Nooramunga M & C Park for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Nooramunga M & C Park threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 2 2 4 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 2 0 8 16 shipping 00300 40 000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 2 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 8108074002000113630040 66

This primarily concerns seagrass beds, mangroves, invertebrate communities Data quality F5 Nutrients from septic tanks/secondary sewage treatment plants lead to epiphyte smothering of seagrass Medium G7 Logging of plantations in catchment increasing suspended sediments reducing light for seagrass Low H7 Logging of plantations in catchment increasing settled sediments reducing light for seagrass Low F8 Nutrients from agriculture/dairy farming in catchment lead to epiphyte smothering of seagrass Medium G8 Suspended sediments from agriculture may affect light for seagrass Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from agriculture may affect seagrass habitat Low G11 Coastal development (breakwalls etc.) could alter suspended sediment levels affecting seagrass Low H11 Coastal development (breakwalls etc.) could lead to greater sedimentation of seagrass leaves Low U11 Coastal development will change patterns of erosion/sedimentation affecting seagrass/mangroves Medium G12 Potentially increased suspended sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass Medium H12 Potentially increased settled sediments from dredge plume affecting light for seagrass Low J12 Possible oil/dispersant release associated with port/dredging activities Low S15 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium T15 Haul seine nets, propeller damage may effect seagrass habitat Low X15 Trophic cascade effect of removing predatory fish results in increased epiphyte growth on seagrass Low J16 Significant oil spill from vessels entering Corner Inlet could affect seagrass/mangroves High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass/invertebrate communities Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium X20 Trophic cascade effect of removing predatory fish results in increased epiphyte growth on seagrass Low

109

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A78. Threat assessment of Nooramunga M & C Park for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Nooramunga M & C Park threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 2 2 4 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 10 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 2 0 8 16 shipping 00300 40 000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 2 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 810807400223231685004 0 82

This primarily concerns seagrass beds, mangroves, invertebrate communities Data quality T20 Increase recreation fishing leads to increased propeller/anchor damage to seagrass beds Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Sea level rise may inundate islands effecting depth suitability for seagrass species, habitat suitability for mangroves Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of existing seagrass species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Medium T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

110

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A79. Threat assessment of Nooramunga M & C Park for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Nooramunga M & C Park threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 forestry 2 2 4 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 air quality 1 0 0 1 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 7 shipping 00300 40 00 0 7 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 2 6 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 8108064002000113430040 63

111

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A80. Threat assessment of Nooramunga M & C Park for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Nooramunga M & C Park threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 2 2 4 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 7 16 shipping 00300 40000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 2 6 21 Climate Change 2423322 18 8108064002242316650040 80

This primarily concerns seagrass productivity and nursery for fish, food chain for birds Data quality O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Sea level rise may inundate offshore islands affecting feeding and roosting of listed birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of seagrass productivity Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Medium T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low U21 Waves and currents affecting seagrass banks may be changed with altered wind conditions under climate change Low

112

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Shallow Inlet MCP

A81. Threat assessment of Shallow Inlet M & C Park for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Shallow Inlet M & C Park threats stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r lig

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d a

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i ew

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r ra

r br t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h xt

n n underwater noise underwater altered /wave altered currents e de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 16 shipping 00300 40000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 632043002000111400120 39

This primarily concerns syngnathids, listed birds, recreational and commercially important fish Data quality F8 Nutrients from agriculture/dairy farming in catchment lead to loss of seagrass for syngnathids Medium G8 Suspended sediments from agriculture may cause loss of seagrass for syngnathids Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from agriculture may cause loss of seagrass for syngnathids Low J16 Significant oil spill from vessels entering Corner Inlet could affect birds, syngnathids High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on listed syngnathids, other key species Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could mean less suitable habitat for syngnathids Medium T18 Disturbance from boats and shoreline recreation disturbs listed birds Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could mean less suitable habitat for syngnathids Medium T20 Vessels in transit may disturb listed birds Low X20 Effect of recreational fishing on populations of important species Low

113

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A82. Threat assessment of Shallow Inlet M & C Park for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Shallow Inlet M & C Park threats stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 16 shipping 00300 40 000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 3 0 0 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2323321 16 632043002232314710120 55

This primarily concerns syngnathids, listed birds, recreational and commercially important fish Data quality T18 Increasing human population leads to increased disturbance of listed birds by tourism/recreation Low O21 Increased acidity of seawater could affect grazers allowing algal overgrowth of syngnathid habitat Low P21 Sea level rise could reduce intertidal habitat for listed birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass, reducing habitat for syngnathids Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal for existing species; range changes lead to competition Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest due to changed environment under climate change could lead to increased competition Low T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low

114

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A83. Threat assessment of Shallow Inlet M & C Park for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Shallow Inlet M & C Park threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave currents altered noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 16 shipping 00300 40 00 0 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 2 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 632043002000111300020 37

This primarily concerns seagrass beds Data quality F8 Nutrients from agriculture/dairy farming in catchment lead to epiphyte smothering of seagrass Medium G8 Suspended sediments from agriculture may affect light for seagrass Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from agriculture may affect seagrass habitat Low J16 Significant oil spill from vessels in Bass Strait could affect seagrass High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium X20 Trophic cascade effect of removing predatory fish results in increased epiphyte growth on seagrass Low

115

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A84. Threat assessment of Shallow Inlet M & C Park for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Shallow Inlet M & C Park threats stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 16 shipping 00300 40 000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 2 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 2323321 16 632043002232314510020 52

This primarily concerns seagrass beds Data quality T20 Increased recreation fishing leads to increased propeller/anchor damage to seagrass beds Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Sea level rise may affect depth suitability for seagrass species Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of existing seagrass species Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Medium T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low

116

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A85. Threat assessment of Shallow Inlet M & C Park for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Shallow Inlet M & C Park threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I JKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 16 shipping 00300 40 000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 2 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 632043002000111200020 36

This primarily concerns seagrass productivity and nursery for fish, food chain for birds Data quality F8 Nutrients from agriculture/dairy farming in catchment lead to reduced seagrass productivity/nursery Medium G8 Suspended sediments from agriculture may affect light for seagrass reducing productivity/nursery value Medium K8 Pesticides/herbicides from agriculture may affect seagrass productivity/nursery value Low J16 Significant oil spill from vessels entering Corner Inlet could affect seagrass productivity/nursery, bird feeding High S16 Introduction of new marine pests from ballast water could have major effect on seagrass productivity/nursery Low S18 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium S20 Translocation of existing pests, e.g. Caulerpa taxifolia from NSW/SA, could replace seagrass Medium X20 Removal of large fish has flow on effect to grazers and seagrass productivity Low

117

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A86. Threat assessment of Shallow Inlet M & C Park for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Shallow Inlet M & C Park threats stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years FGH I JK LMNOPQR S T UVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1110 10 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 3 2 1 2 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 16 shipping 00300 40000 7 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 3 1 0 2 6 21 Climate Change 2323321 16 632043002232314410020 51

This primarily concerns seagrass productivity and nursery for fish, food chain for birds Data quality G6 Increased human population leads to increasing suspended sediments reducing seagrass productivity/nursery value Low H6 Increased human population increasing settled sediments reducing seagrass productivity/nursery value Low O21 Expected increase in acidity of seawater could affect grazers with calcareous shells, allowing algal overgrowth Low P21 Sea level rise may affect intertidal seagrass productivity, feeding of listed birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB known to have negative effects on seagrass Low R21 Increased temperature could be less optimal or exceed tolerances of seagrass productivity Medium S21 Introduction of marine pest plants due to changed environment under climate change could replace seagrass Medium T21 May be increase in physical disturbance associated with increased storm activity under climate change Low

118

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Discovery Bay MNP

A87. Threat assessment of Discovery Bay MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Discovery Bay EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t ter

s d

: t t e l d d a

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i ew

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave / altered currents ex d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 5 years FGH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 6 stormwater 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 1 0 1 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 8 16 shipping 004 4 31011 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 0 0 0 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 3 2 2 0 1 1 10 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33006001300000 9300522 46

Focus here on blue whales, abalone and rock lobster, listed birds Data quality M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests (e.g. Asterias , Sabella ) could affect habitat for abalone/rock lobster Low W15 Debris from commercial fishing operations (netting, ropes etc) affecting whales, listed birds Medium J16 Major oil spill from shipping accident affects whale migration/feeding, listed birds High M16 Introduction of a new virus from ships ballast water affecting important species Low T16 Introduction of new marine pests from ships ballast water affecting important species Low M18 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S18 Translocation of marine pests (e.g. Asterias , Sabella ) could affect habitat for abalone/rock lobster Low T18 Physical disturbance of whales/listed birds from tourism operators Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests (e.g. Asterias , Sabella ) could affect habitat for abalone/rock lobster Low X20 Illegal harvesting of abalone in the shallow subtidal reef areas Medium

119

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A88. Threat assessment of Discovery Bay MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Discovery Bay EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r igh

u m s m u

e V

l & t r l

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ve i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a tra

l c c

t bo u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n altered wave wave /altered currents underwater noise underwater a A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p d ex Time Frame 60 years FGH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 6 stormwater 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 1 0 1 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 8 16 shipping 004 4 31011 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 0 0 0 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 3 2 2 0 1 1 10 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2323322 17

330060013023231252052 2 63

Focus here on blue whales, abalone and rock lobster, listed birds Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect abalone and other invertebrate larvae Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce intertidal habitat for listed birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect abalone and other marine larvae Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances, change ranges leading to competition Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species Low T21 Physical disturbance likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge Low U21 Altered waves and current may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of important species Low

120

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A89. Threat assessment of Discovery Bay MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Discovery bay EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

o u p b

e gh

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /altered currents d ex A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 5 years FGH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 6 stormwater 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 1 0 1 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 6 16 shipping 004 3 30000 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 0 0 0 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 2 0 1 5 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3200700900000 9000020 32

Focus here brown algal and sessile invertebrate communities Data quality M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to habitat/diversity Low S15 Translocated pests from commercial fishing boats affect algal/invertebrate assemblages (e.g. Undaria ) Low M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact depending on species affected Low J16 Major oil spill from shipping accident affect intertidal - shallow subtidal algal/invertebrate assemblages Medium S16 New introduced pest from shipping ballast water Low M18 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to habitat/diversity Low S18 Translocated pests from recreational/tourism boats affect algal/invertebrate assemblages (e.g. Undaria ) Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to habitat/diversity Low S20 Translocated pests from recreational fishing boats affect algal/invertebrate assemblages (e.g. Undaria ) Low

121

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A90. Threat assessment of Discovery Bay MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Discovery bay EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r ra

t a s d t s y br

d d l i a

l c c

t bo u e e e i e n a a c e e h xt

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater a e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p de Time Frame 60 years FGH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 6 stormwater 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 1 0 1 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 6 16 shipping 004 3 30000 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 0 0 0 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 2 0 1 5 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 320070090232312220020 49

Focus here brown algal and sessile invertebrate communities Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect invertebrates with calcium carbonate skeletons Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce intertidal habitat and light for shallow subtidal habitat Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect marine larvae Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, increased desiccation on the intertidal Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species Low T21 Physical disturbance likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge Low U21 Altered waves and current under climate change may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of biota Low

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A91. Threat assessment of Discovery Bay MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Discovery Bay EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r igh

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r l

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l wa

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

c s

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r rac

r ov t a s d t s y bri

d d l i a

l c c

t xt u e e e i e n a a c e e h e

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater ab e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p d Time Frame 5 years FGH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 6 stormwater 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 6 16 shipping 004 3 30000 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 0 0 0 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 2 0 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3200700900000 9000010 31

Focus here on high benthic and pelagic productivity associated with bonney upwelling, blue whale feeding ground Data quality M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to benthic productivity Low S15 Translocated pests from commercial fishing boats affect benthic productivity Low M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact depending on species affected Low J16 Major oil spill and associated dispersants from shipping accident affects benthic/pelagic productivity Medium S16 Introduced pests from shipping/ballast water affects planktonic food chain to krill, benthic productivity Low M18 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to benthic productivity Low S18 Translocated pests from recreational fishing boats affect benthic productivity Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to benthic productivity Low S20 Translocated pests from tourism/recreation boats affect benthic productivity Low

123

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A92. Threat assessment of Discovery Bay MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Discovery Bay EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

lig

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y br

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered /wave altered currents de ex A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 60 years FGH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 6 stormwater 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 6 16 shipping 0 0 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 0 0 0 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 2 0 4 21 Climate Change 3323324 20 320070090332312240010 51

Focus here on high benthic and pelagic productivity associated with bonney upwelling, blue whale feeding ground Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect productivity of plankton/invertebrates with calcium carbonate skeletons Low P21 Sea level rise may affect intertidal ecosystem function Low Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect productivity of plankton Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances and phenology of some species, changing ecosystem function Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species affecting ecosystem function Low T21 Likely to increase with increased storms affecting intertidal/shallow subtidal benthic productivity Low U21 Bonney upwelling system may be affected leading to long term change to ecosystem Medium

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Twelve Apostles MNP

A93. Threat assessment of Twelve Apostles MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Twelve Apostles EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 6 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 0 0 2 1 0 10 16 shipping 0 1 4 4 3 0 0 2 0 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 2 3 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 2 1 9 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4332830102000010100822 58

This primarily concerns whales, little penguins, shearwaters, rock lobster, abalone Data quality M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in habitat for rock lobster, abalone Low W15 Debris from commercial fishing entangles whales, birds Medium J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on little penguins, shearwaters High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in habitat for rock lobster, abalone Low W16 Debris from shipping affects whales, birds Medium Y17 Possible effect of siesmic testing on whales, high uncertainty Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in habitat for rock lobster, abalone Low W20 Debris from recreational fishing affects whales, birds Medium

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A94. Threat assessment of Twelve Apostles MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Twelve Apostles EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t ter

s d

: t t e l d d a

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i ew

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n altered wave wave / altered currents underwater noise underwater ab d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ex Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 6 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 0 0 2 1 0 10 16 shipping 0 1 4 4 3 0 0 2 0 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 2 3 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 2 1 9 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 4332830102232313320822 75

This primarily concerns whales, little penguins, shearwaters, rock lobster, abalone Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect abalone/other grazers (larvae with calcareous shells) Low P21 Sea level rise could affect intertidal habitat little penguins, shearwaters Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect abalone, rock lobster larvae Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some listed species Medium S21 Climate change could favour introduced species affecting habitat for listed species Low T21 Increased physical disturbance from storms affecting little penguins, shearwaters Low U21 Altered waves and currents may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of abalone, rock lobster Low

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A95. Threat assessment of Twelve Apostles MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Twelve Apostles EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 6 7 forestry 2 2 0 4 8 agriculture 2 2 2 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 555273072000010100520 54

This primarily concerns intertidal and shallow subtidal limestone reef and associated invertebrate diversity, and deep reef sessile invertebrates

Data quality G7 Suspended sediments resulting from erosion in forestry areas affect water clarity for marine plant habitat Low H7 Settled sediments resulting from erosion in forestry areas affect marine plant habitat and sessile invertebrates Low F8 Nutrients from dairy and other agriculture cause eutrophication in plant habitat Low G8 Suspended sediments resulting from erosion in agriculture areas affect water clarity for marine plant habitat Medium H8 Settled sediments resulting from erosion in forestry areas affect marine plant habitat and sessile invertebrates Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Low J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on intertidal, shallow subtidal community/diversity High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species with flow on to habitat/community Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in habitat cover and diversity of all types of biota Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Low

127

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A96. Threat assessment of Twelve Apostles MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Twelve Apostles EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 6 7 forestry 2 2 0 4 8 agriculture 2 2 2 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 555273072232313320520 71

This primarily concerns intertidal and shallow subtidal limestone reef and associated invertebrate diversity, and deep reef sessile invertebrates

Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect invertebrates with calcium carbonate skeletons Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce intertidal habitat and light for shallow subtidal habitat Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect marine larvae and Amphibolis seagrass Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, increased desiccation on the intertidal Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species Low T21 Physical disturbance likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge Low U21 Altered waves and current under climate change may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of biota Low

128

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A97. Threat assessment of Twelve Apostles MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Twelve Apostles EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 6 7 forestry 2 2 0 4 8 agriculture 2 2 2 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 1 3 0 0 1 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 4 3 3 0 0 1 0 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 1 3 1 1 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 555293052000010100520 54

This primarily concerns breeding and feeding ground for little penguins, shearwaters; productivity of macro-algae Data quality G7 Suspended sediments resulting from erosion in forestry areas affect water clarity for macroalgal productivity Low H7 Settled sediments resulting from erosion in forestry areas affect macroalgal productivity Low F8 Nutrients from dairy and other agriculture cause eutrophication in plant habitat affecting macroalgal productivity Low G8 Suspended sediments resulting from erosion in agriculture areas affect water clarity for macroalgal productivity Medium H8 Settled sediments resulting from erosion in forestry areas affect marine plant habitat and sessile invertebrates Low J15 Oil spill from commercial fishing vessel affects bird breeding and feeding Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal productivity Low J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on bird breeding and feeding High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on prey fish for birds (e.g. pilchard virus) Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in macroalgal productivity Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal productivity Low

129

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A98. Threat assessment of Twelve Apostles MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Twelve Apostles EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 6 7 forestry 2 2 0 4 8 agriculture 2 2 2 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 1 3 0 0 1 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 4 3 3 0 0 1 0 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 1 3 1 1 6 21 Climate Change 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 16 555293052222313320520 70

This primarily concerns breeding and feeding ground for little penguins, shearwaters; productivity of macro-algae Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect pelagic food chain and consequently bird feeding Low P21 Sea level rise may affect intertidal breeding areas for birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect productivity of Macroalgae Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, changing food chains and productivity Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species affecting macroalgal productivity Low T21 Likely to increase with increased storms affecting breeding areas for birds, macro-algal productivity Low U21 Altered currents could affect pelagic food chain for birds, macroalgal productivity Low

130

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Merri MS

A99. Threat assessment of Merri MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Merri EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t ter

s d

e a : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i ew

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r rac

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

t b eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h xt

n n altered wave /altered currents underwater noise underwater a d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2 2 2 0 1 0 1 2 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 2 2 1 1 0 8 9 industry non-sewage 1 1 0 0 2 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 13 marine energy 0 0 0 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 1 0 0 1 1 10 16 shipping 114 4 31000 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 2 3 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 4 2 1 0 0 12 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 1 1 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7982820133000013521323 81

Comments Based primarily on listed birds, little penguins, seahorses, abalone Data quality F5 Excess nutrients from sewage could lead to eutrophication, affecting seahorse/abalone habitat Low F6 Excess nutrients from stormwater could lead to eutrophication, decline in seahorse/abalone habitat Low G6 Suspended sediments from stormwater reduce light, affecting seahorse/abalone habitat Low H6 Settled sediments from stormwater reduce light for algae, affecting seahorse/abalone populations Low W6 Debris from stormwater affects listed birds Low F8 Excess nutrients from agriculture could lead to eutrophication, decline in seahorse/abalone habitat Medium G8 Suspended sediments reduce light for algae, affecting seahorse/abalone populations Medium H8 Sediments settled on plants reduce light for algae, affecting seahorse/abalone populations Low G11 Change in sediment transport decreasing light for algae, affecting seahorse and abalone populations Low H11 Change in sediment transport, smothering algae and affecting seahorse and abalone populations Low U11 Altered wave/currents from coastal infrastructure affects environment suitability for seahorses, abalone Low G12 Sediment plume from artificial estuary opening reduces light for algae affecting seahorses/abalone Low H12 Sediment plume from artificial estuary opening smothers algae affecting seahorse/abalone Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus leading to reduced population Medium M16 Introduction of new pathogen affecting important species Low S15 Translocation of pests (e.g. Undaria ) affects seahorse/abalone habitat Low J16 Major oil spill and associated dispersants from shipping accident affects listed birds, little penguins High S16 Introduction of new marine pest by shipping has major affect on habitat for seahorses/abalone Low Y17 Seismic testing used in exploration affects whales, high uncertainty Low M18 Translocation of abalone virus leading to reduced population Medium S18 Fox and dog predation on penguins, listed birds Medium T18 Disturbance of listed birds, penguins through human recreation Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus leading to reduced population Medium S20 Translocation of pests by recreational fishing vessels (e.g. Undaria ) affects seahorse/abalone habitat Low

131

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A100. Threat assessment of Merri MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Merri EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

e gh

c a

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r rac

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

t eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h xt

n n altered wave /altered currents underwater noise underwater d e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2 3 2 0 1 0 1 2 11 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 3 2 2 1 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 1 1 0 0 2 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 3 1 2 0 0 8 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 13 marine energy 0 0 0 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 1 0 0 1 1 10 16 shipping 114 4 31000 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 2 3 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 4 2 1 0 0 12 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 1 1 8 21 Climate Change 2323323 18 81092820133232316 7 5 132 3 102

Comments Based primarily on listed birds, little penguins, seahorses, abalone Data quality G6 Increased urbanisation leads to increased suspended sediment from stormwater Low F8 Increased agriculture use of fertilisers leads to eutrophication affecting habitat for seahorse/abalone Low H11 Increased coastal infrastructure leads to increased sedimentation of habitat for seahorses/abalone Low O21 Increased acidity could affect abalone larvae Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce intertidal habitat for listed birds, little penguins Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect seahorse/abalone larvae Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances; range changes lead to increased competition Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species Low T21 Physical disturbance of listed birds, little penguins likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge Low U21 Altered waves and currents may affect larval dispersal/recruitment of seahorses/abalone Low

132

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A101. Threat assessment of Merri MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Merri EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2 2 2 0 1 0 1 1 9 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 3 2 2 1 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 1 1 0 0 2 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 13 marine energy 0 0 0 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 1 1 9 16 shipping 1 1 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 3 2 1 0 0 10 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 898272093000012521221 73

Based primarily on subtidal macro-algal habitat and diversity Data quality F5 Excess nutrients from sewage could lead to eutrophication, decline in algal habitat/diversity Low F6 Excess nutrients from stormwater could lead to eutrophication, decline in algal habitat/diversity Low G6 Suspended sediments from stormwater reduce light, affecting algal habitat/diversity Low H6 Settled sediments from stormwater reduce light for algae, affecting habitat/diversity Low F8 Excess nutrients from agriculture could lead to eutrophication, decline in algal habitat/diversity Medium G8 Suspended sediments from catchment erosion reduce light for algae, affecting habitat/diversity Medium H8 Sediments from catchment erosion settled on plants reduce light for algae, affecting habitat/diversity Low G11 Change in sediment transport decreasing light, affecting algal habitat/diversity Low H11 Change in sediment transport, smothering algae and reducing habitat/diversity Low U11 Altered wave/currents from coastal infrastructure affects environment suitability for algae Low G12 Sediment plume from artificial estuary opening reduces light affecting macroalgae habitat/diversity Low H12 Sediment plume from artificial estuary opening smothers macroalgae affecting habitat/diversity Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S15 Translocation of pests by commercial fishing vessels (e.g. Undaria ) affects algal habitat/diversity Low J16 Major oil spill and associated dispersants from shipping accident High S16 Introduction of new marine pest by shipping has major affect on macroalgal habitat/diversity Low M18 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S18 Translocation of pests by recreational vessels (e.g. Undaria ) affects algal habitat/diversity Low T18 Physical damage by trampling reducing intertidal invertebrate and algal diversity Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S20 Translocation of pests by recreational fishing vessels (e.g. Undaria ) affects algal diversity Low

133

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A102. Threat assessment of Merri MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Merri EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2 3 2 0 1 0 1 1 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 3 2 2 1 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 1 1 0 0 2 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 3 1 2 0 0 8 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 13 marine energy 0 0 0 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 1 1 9 16 shipping 113 3 31000 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 3 2 1 0 0 10 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 2223323 17 8109272093222315751221 92

Comments Based primarily on subtidal macro-algal habitat and diversity Data quality G6 Increased urbanisation leads to increased suspended sediment from stormwater Low H11 Increased coastal infrastructure leads to increased sedimentation of subtidal macroalgal habitat Low O21 Increased acidity could affect invertebrate diversity Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce intertidal habitat and light for shallow subtidal habitat Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect marine larvae and therefore diversity Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species; range changes affecting diversity Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species Low T21 Physical disturbance of macroalgal habitat likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge Low U21 Altered waves and current under climate change may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of biota Low

134

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A103. Threat assessment of Merri MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Merri EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

lig

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t

s d

e ate : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ve ris i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r o t a s d t s y b

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n altered wave /altered currents underwater noise underwater ab de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2 2 2 0 1 0 1 1 9 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 3 2 2 1 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 1 1 0 0 2 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 1 2 0 0 7 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 13 marine energy 0 0 0 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 1 1 9 16 shipping 1 1 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 3 1 1 0 0 9 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 898272093000012421221 72

Comments This primarily concerns breeding and feeding ground for little penguins, shearwaters; productivity of macro-algae Data quality F5 Excess nutrients from sewage could lead to eutrophication, decline in algal productivity Low F6 Excess nutrients from stormwater could lead to eutrophication, decline in algal productivity Low G6 Suspended sediments from stormwater reduce light, affecting algal productivity/bird feeding Low H6 Settled sediments from stormwater reduce light for algae, affecting algal productivity Low F8 Excess nutrients from agriculture could lead to eutrophication, decline in algal productivity Medium G8 Suspended sediments from catchment erosion reduce light, affecting algal productivity/bird feeding Medium H8 Sediments from catchment erosion settled on plants reduce light for algae, affecting algal productivity Low G11 Change in sediment transport decreasing light, affecting algal productivity/bird feeding Low H11 Change in sediment transport, smothering algae and reducing productivity Low U11 Altered wave/currents from coastal infrastructure affects environment suitability for algae/birds Low G12 Sediment plume from artificial estuary opening reduces light affecting algal productivity/bird feeding Low H12 Sediment plume from artificial estuary opening smothers macroalgae affecting productivity Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus leads to change in ecosystem function Low S15 Translocation of pests by commercial fishing vessels (e.g. Undaria ) affects algal productivity Low J16 Major oil spill and associated dispersants from shipping accident affects bird feeding/breeding High M16 Introduction of new pathogen leads to mortality of species and change in ecosystem function Low S16 Introduction of new marine pest by shipping has major affect on macroalgal productivity Low M18 Translocation of abalone virus leads to change in ecosystem function Low S18 Translocation of pests by recreational vessels (e.g. Undaria ) affects algal productivity Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus leads to change in ecosystem function Low S20 Translocation of pests by recreational fishing vessels (e.g. Undaria ) affects algal diversity Low

135

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A104. Threat assessment of Merri MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Merri EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

lig

o u m s m u

e V

l & t

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

E - - t

s d

: t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ve i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y b

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n altered wave /altered currents underwater noise underwater a de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ex Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2 3 2 0 1 0 1 1 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 3 2 2 1 1 0 9 9 industry non-sewage 1 1 0 0 2 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 3 1 2 0 0 8 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 13 marine energy 0 0 0 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 1 1 9 16 shipping 113 3 31000 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 3 1 1 0 0 9 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 2323323 18 8109272093232315651221 92

Comments This primarily concerns breeding and feeding ground for little penguins, shearwaters; productivity of macro-algae Data quality G6 Increased urbanisation leads to increased suspended sediment from stormwater Low H11 Increased coastal infrastructure leads to increased sedimentation of subtidal macroalgal habitat Low O21 Increased acidity could affect pelagic food chain for birds Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce breeding habitat for birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect macroalgal productivity Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances; affecting algal productivity/food chain for birds Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species Low T21 Physical disturbance of bird breeding/feeding likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge Low U21 Altered waves and currents may affect pelagic food chain, breeding habitat for birds Low

136

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of The Arches MS

A105. Threat assessment of The Arches MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Arches EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

ligh

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c s cti

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y bri

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater de ex A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 1 0 0 2 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 0 3 4 1 0 0 2 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 2 3 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 4 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 1 1 1 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25506001000000 4100822 45

This primarily concerns listed seabirds, fish (southern bluefin tuna, great white shark), whales, abalone Data quality W6 Debris from Port Campbell affects seabirds, marine mammals Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium W15 Debris from commercial fishing operations entangles listed birds, marine mammals Medium M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species Low J16 Significant oil spill and associated dispersants would affect listed birds, marine mammals Medium W16 Debris from shipping operations affects listed birds, marine mammals Medium Y17 Underwater noise from seismic testing affects whales, listed fish Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium

137

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A106. Threat assessment of The Arches MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Arches EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t ter

s d

: t t e l d d a

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i ew

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n altered wave / altered currents underwater noise underwater ab d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ex Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 1 0 0 2 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 4 1 0 0 2 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 2 3 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 1 1 1 6 21 Climate Change 1113122 11 35516001001113 5320822 58

This primarily concerns listed seabirds, fish (southern bluefin tuna, great white shark), whales Data quality R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some listed species Medium T21 Increased physical disturbance from storms affecting listed seabirds Low U21 Altered waves and currents may affect migration of listed fish, whales Low

138

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A107. Threat assessment of The Arches MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Arches EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 4 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 2 2 4 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 1 3 0 0 1 1 0 7 16 shipping 0 1 2 3 3 0 0 1 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 1 3 1 1 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 466263050000010100420 49

This primarily concerns subtidal reef kelp community and sessile invertebrates Data quality G12 Artificial estuary opening leads to pulse of suspended sediments affecting light for kelp community Low H12 Artificial estuary opening leads to pulse of sediments settling on kelp community Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Low J16 Significant oil spill and associated dispersants may affect subtidal algal community Medium M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species with flow on to habitat/community Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in kelp and invertebrate communities Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Low

139

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A108. Threat assessment of The Arches MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Arches EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 4 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 2 2 4 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 1 3 0 0 1 1 0 7 16 shipping 0 1 2 3 3 0 0 1 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 1 3 1 1 6 21 Climate Change 2123322 15 466263050212313320420 64

This primarily concerns subtidal reef kelp community and sessile invertebrates Data quality O21 Could affect sessile invertebrates with calcareous skeletons/shells Low Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect kelp community/diversity Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, affecting community/diversity Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species affecting diversity Low T21 Increased physical disturbance from storms affecting kelp community/diversity Low U21 Change to current patterns could alter community structure of kelp/sessile invertebrates Low

140

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A109. Threat assessment of The Arches MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Arches EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 4 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 2 2 4 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 1 2 1 1 5 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4662730500000 8100420 48

This primarily concerns subtidal reef kelp productivity, food chain for listed fish, seabirds Data quality G12 Artificial estuary opening leads to pulse of suspended sediments affecting light for kelp productivity Low H12 Artificial estuary opening leads to pulse of settled sediments affecting kelp productivity Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal productivity Low J16 Significant oil spill and associated dispersants may affect food chain for listed birds/fish, subtidal algal productivity Medium M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on food chain for listed seabirds/fish (e.g. pilchard virus) Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in kelp productivity Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal productivity Low

141

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A110. Threat assessment of The Arches MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Arches EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r igh

o u m s m u

e V

l & t l r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c s

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b act i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y bri

d d l i a tr

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents ex de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 4 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 2 2 4 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 1 2 1 1 5 21 Climate Change 2123212 13 466273050212310220420 61

This primarily concerns subtidal reef kelp productivity, food chain for listed fish, seabirds Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect pelagic food chain and consequently listed seabird/fish feeding Low Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect pelagic food chain (plankton) for listed seabird/fish feeding Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, changing food chains and productivity Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species affecting macroalgal productivity Low U21 Altered currents could affect pelagic food chain for listed birds/fish, macroalgal productivity Low

142

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Point Addis MNP

A111. Threat assessment of Point Addis MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Point Addis EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 5 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 6 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 3 0 0 2 1 0 11 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 3 0 2 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 1 3 10 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 533283092000110300740 60

This primarily concerns listed mammals and birds; abalone and other gastropods; weedy seadragon Data quality F5 Nutrients in sewage could lead to epiphyte overgrowth of seagrass, algal composition, affecting weedy seadragon Medium J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting listed birds/mammals Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting listed species including weedy seadragon Low W15 Debris from commercial fishing operations could affect listed birds/mammals Medium J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on listed birds/mammals, sea dragon habitat High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on abalone/gastropod species Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in habitat affecting listed species/abalone/seadragons Low T18 Dogs, horses and vehicles affecting listed birds and mammals Medium W18 Debris from tourism/recreation could affect listed birds/mammals Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting listed species including weedy seadragon Low X20 Illegal harvesting of abalone, other gastropods in shallow subtidal will reduce populations Medium

143

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A112. Threat assessment of Point Addis MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Point Addis EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r igh

u m s m u

e V

l & t r l

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t

s d

e ate : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris ve i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a

l c c

t eb bo u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater d a A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 6 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 6 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 3 0 0 2 1 0 11 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 3 0 2 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 0 20 rec fishing 3 1 3 7 21 Climate Change 2 3 2 3 3 1 2 16 633283062232313420740 73

This primarily concerns listed mammals and birds; abalone and other gastropods; weedy seadragon Data quality F5 Rise in human population in the area could see increased nutrient input associated with sewage Low O21 Could affect abalone/other grazers, possible flow on effects of increased epiphytes to seadragons Low P21 Sea level rise could affect intertidal habitat for listed birds, seagrass habitat for sea dragons Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect abalone larvae and Amphibolis seagrass with flow on to seadragons Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some listed species Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species affecting habitat for listed species Low U21 Altered waves and currents may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of abalone, seadragons Low

144

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A113. Threat assessment of Point Addis MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Point Addis EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 5 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 7 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 9 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 533283073000110300530 56

This primarily concerns intertidal rock platforms and associated algae, subtidal reefs (diverse algae/fish), rhodolith beds, soft sediments with Amphibolis seagrass and sessile invertebrates Data quality F5 Nutrients in sewage could lead to epiphyte overgrowth of seagrass, change in algal composition Medium I5 Heavy metals in sewage could lead to effects on reef invertebrates and other biota Low N6 Decreased salinity from stormwater and estuary opening may affect biota in shallow subtidal reef and sand habitat Low J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting intertidal habitat/community Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Medium J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on intertidal community/diversity High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species with flow on to habitat/community Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in habitat cover and diversity of all types of biota Low T18 Trampling and disturbance of algae and invertebrates on intertidal platforms by tourism and recreation Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Medium X20 Illegal harvesting of shellfish in shallow subtidal has potential flow on effects to community Low

145

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A114. Threat assessment of Point Addis MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Point Addis EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

C - - t

s d

e at : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ve ac i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y b

d d l i a

l c c

t bo u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater a e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p de Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 6 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 7 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 9 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 633283073232313520530 73

This primarily concerns intertidal rock platforms and associated algae, subtidal reefs (diverse algae/fish), rhodolith beds, soft sediments with Amphibolis seagrass and sessile invertebrates Data quality F5 Rise in human population in the area could see increased nutrient input associated with sewage Low O21 Increased acidity could affect invertebrates with calcium carbonate skeletons Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce intertidal habitat and light for shallow subtidal habitat Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect marine larvae and Amphibolis seagrass Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, increased desiccation on the intertidal Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species Low T21 Physical disturbance likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge Low U21 Altered waves and current under climate change may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of biota Low

146

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A115. Threat assessment of Point Addis MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Point Addis EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r igh

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r l

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c s

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b act i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y bri

d d l i a

l c c

t xtr u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents e a A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p de Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 5 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 7 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 533273073000110300520 54

This primarily concerns macroalgal and Amphibolis seagrass productivity Data quality F5 Nutrients in sewage could lead to epiphyte overgrowth decreasing seagrass productivity, change in algal productivity Medium N6 Decreased salinity from stormwater and estuary opening may affect plant productivity in shallow subtidal habitat Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef ecosystem Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in seagrass, algal and sessile invertebrate productivity Low J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on intertidal and shallow subtidal ecosystem function High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on ecosystem function depending on species affected Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in ecosystem function Low T18 Trampling and disturbance of algae and invertebrates on intertidal platforms will affect productivity Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef ecosystem Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in seagrass, algal and sessile invertebrate productivity Low

147

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A116. Threat assessment of Point Addis MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Point Addis EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 5 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 7 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 0 0 1 1 0 9 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 2323321 16 533273083232313510520 70

This primarily concerns macroalgal and Amphibolis seagrass productivity Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect productivity of invertebrates with calcium carbonate skeletons Low P21 Sea level rise may affect intertidal ecosystem function Low Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect productivity of Amphibolis seagrass Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, changing productivity and ecosystem function Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species affecting ecosystem function Low T21 Likely to increase with increased storms affecting intertidal/shallow subtidal ecosystem function/light for seagrass Low

148

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Bunurong MNP

A117. Threat assessment of Bunurong MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Bunurong EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

e gh

c a

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t li r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i e

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r br t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave wave / altered currents de e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 6 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 2 0 0 2 1 0 10 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 3 0 2 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 3 9 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 43316209200018300740 53

This primarily concerns listed mammals and birds (e.g. hooded plover); abalone and other gastropods

J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting listed birds/mammals Data quality M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting listed species / abalone Medium W15 Debris from commercial fishing operations could affect listed birds/mammals Medium J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on listed birds/mammals Medium M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on abalone/gastropod species High S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in habitat affecting listed species/abalone Low T18 Dogs, horses and vehicles affecting listed birds and mammals Low W18 Debris from tourism/recreation could affect listed birds/mammals High M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting listed species/abalone High X20 Illegal harvesting of abalone, other gastropods in shallow subtidal will reduce populations Medium Medium

149

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A118. Threat assessment of Bunurong MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Bunurong EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 5 6 stormwater 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 8 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 2 0 0 2 1 0 10 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 3 0 2 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 3 9 21 Climate Change 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 16 743273092231311520740 75

This primarily concerns listed mammals and birds (e.g. hooded plover); abalone and other gastropods Data quality F5 Increased residential area could see increased sewage nutrient input - flow on to listed species/abalone Medium F6 Increased residential area leads to increased stormwater nutrient input - flow on to listed species/abalone Low G8 Increased nutrient input from more intensive agriculture - flow on to listed species/abalone Medium O21 Increased acidity could affect abalone/other grazers, possible flow on effects of increased epiphytes Low P21 Sea level rise could affect intertidal habitat for listed birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect abalone larvae Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some listed species High S21 May be more favourable environment for introduced species affecting habitat for listed species Low T21 Increased storms causing physical disturbance will affect listed birds Low U21 Altered waves and current under climate change may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of abalone Low

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset

150

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A119. Threat assessment of Bunurong MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Bunurong EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 5 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 2 0 0 1 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 2 1 2 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 53316207100018200530 47

This primarily concerns intertidal rock platforms and associated algae, subtidal reefs (diverse red/greenalgae), soft sediments with Amphibolis seagrass and sessile invertebrates in deep zone

Data quality F8 Nutrients from agriculture in catchment lead to epiphyte overgrowth of seagrass, change algal community Medium J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting intertidal habitat/community Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Medium J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on intertidal community/diversity High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species with flow on to habitat/community Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in habitat cover and diversity of all types of biota Low T18 Trampling and disturbance of algae and invertebrates on intertidal platforms by tourism and recreation Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Medium X20 Illegal harvesting of shellfish in shallow subtidal has potential flow on effects to community Medium

151

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A120. Threat assessment of Bunurong MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Bunurong EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

o u p b

e gh

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents ex d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 6 stormwater 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 8 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 3 1 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 2 0 0 1 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 2 1 2 7 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 743273072232311520530 71

This primarily concerns intertidal rock platforms and associated algae, subtidal reefs (diverse red/greenalgae), soft sediments with Amphibolis seagrass and sessile invertebrates in deep zone Data quality F6 Nutrients in stormwater increasing with increased residential development in the catchment Medium G6 Suspended sediments in stormwater increasing with increased residential development in the catchment Low F8 Nutrients from agriculture in catchment lead to epiphyte overgrowth of seagrass, change algal community Medium T18 Increased residential development leads to increased visitation, trampling etc. Medium O21 Increased acidity could affect invertebrates with calcium carbonate skeletons Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce intertidal habitat and light for shallow subtidal habitat Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect marine larvae and Amphibolis seagrass Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, increased desiccation on the intertidal platform High S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species Low T21 Physical disturbance likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge affecting intertidal/shallow subtidal biota Low U21 Altered waves and current under climate change may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of biota Low

152

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A121. Threat assessment of Bunurong MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Bunurong EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n

A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p /wave altered currents a d e noise underwater Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 1 2 1 0 1 0 2 1 8 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 1 3 1 1 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 543152063000110300520 50

This primarily concerns macroalgal and Amphibolis seagrass productivity Data quality G6 Urban development in the catchment leads to suspended sediments in stormwater affecting algal/seagrass productivity Medium N6 Urban development in the catchment leads to freshwater in stormwater affecting algal/seagrass productivity Medium F8 Nutrients from agricultural runoff from catchment affects algal/seagrass productivity through epiphyte growth Medium M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef ecosystem Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal, seagrass and invertebrate productivity Low J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on intertidal and shallow subtidal ecosystem function High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on ecosystem function depending on species affected Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in ecosystem function Low T18 Trampling and disturbance of algae and invertebrates on intertidal platforms will affect productivity Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal, seagrass and invertebrate productivity Medium

153

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A122. Threat assessment of Bunurong MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Bunurong EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 stormwater 1 2 1 0 1 0 2 1 8 forestry 1 1 0 2 agriculture 3 1 1 1 1 0 7 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 ports / channels / dredging 0 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 8 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 0 7 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 1 3 1 1 6 Climate Change 1 3 1 3 3 2 1 14 643263063131313510520 67

This primarily concerns macroalgal and Amphibolis seagrass productivity Data quality F8 Nutrients from agricultural runoff from catchment affects algal/seagrass productivity through epiphyte growth Medium P21 Sea level rise will affect algal productivity on intertidal platforms Low R21 Sea temperature rise likely to affect species composition and physiological rates flowing on to ecological function Medium S21 May be favourable conditions for introduction of exotic species affecting ecological function Low T21 Increased physical disturbance from storms may affect intertidal algal productivity Low

154

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Marengo MS

A123. Threat assessment of Marengo MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Marengo EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t ter

s d

e a : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i ew

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r rac

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

t eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h xt

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater d ab A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 1 0 1 4 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 9 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 9 16 shipping 014 03 31 01 0 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 1 2 9 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 664472093000112400520 65

Primarily concerned with Australian fur seals, listed bird species, abalone Data quality F5 Nutrients from nearby sewage outfall affect habitat (algae) for abalone F6 Nutrients in stormwater from local townships affect habitat (algae) for abalone Low G6 Suspended sediments from stormwater from local townships affect habitat (algae) for abalone Low F8 Nutrients from agriculture in catchment affect habitat (algae) for abalone Low G8 Suspended sediments from agriculture in catchment affect habitat (algae) for abalone Low M15 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests (e.g. Undaria ) could affect individual species (e.g. abalone) Low J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, effects on intertidal species, listed birds, seals High M16 Introduction of new pathogen would have major effect on affected species Medium S16 Introduction of new marine pest species could affect individual species Low S18 Translocation of marine pests (e.g. Undaria ) could affect individual species (e.g. abalone) Low T18 Disturbance from tourism/recreation activities affecting listed bird species, Australian fur seals Medium M20 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests (e.g. Undaria ) could affect individual species (e.g. abalone) Low X20 Illegal harvesting of shellfish (e.g. abalone) and fish affecting populations Medium

155

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A124. Threat assessment of Marengo MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Marengo EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave currents altered noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 3 1 0 1 5 6 stormwater 3 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 12 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 9 16 shipping 01403 31 010 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 3 0 1 0 9 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 1 2 9 21 Climate Change 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 16 875472093231315720520 85

Primarily concerned with Australian fur seals, listed bird species, abalone Data quality F5 Increased population leads to increased nutrients from nearby sewage outfall Low F6 Increased population leads to increased nutrients from stormwater Low G6 Increased population leads to increased suspended sediments from stormwater Low H6 Increased population leads to increased smothering by sediments from stormwater Low T18 Increased disturbance from tourism/recreation affecting listed birds / Australian Fur seals Medium O21 Increased acidity could affect populations of mollusc species Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on intertidal habitat for listed birds, sea haulout Medium R21 Temperature exceeding physiological tolerances affects populations of important species Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance of intertidal, shallow subtidal species Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment dynamics and therefore populations of many species Low

156

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A125. Threat assessment of Marengo MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Marengo EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r lig

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e wa ion

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a tra

l c c

t eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave wave / altered currents d a A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ex Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 1 0 1 4 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 9 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 7 16 shipping 0 1 4 0 3 3 1 0 1 0 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 1 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 664472073000112200430 61

Primarily concerned with subtidal algal, invertebrate and fish communities Data quality F5 Elevated nutrients from sewage outfall affecting algal diversity/habitat Low F6 Nutrients from stormwater leads to increased epiphytes affecting algal diversity/habitat Low G6 Suspended sediments from stormwater leads to reduced light affecting algal diversity/habitat Low F8 Nutrients from fertilisers used in catchment may affect algal community composition Low G8 Suspended sediments from erosion in catchment may affect algal community composition Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef communities Low S15 Commercial fishing boats could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria ) Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on algae/invertebrates on intertidal/shallow subtidal reefs High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have impact on community composition depending on species affected Low S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on habitat/community composition Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria ) into the area Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef communities Medium S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria ) into the area Low X20 Illegal shellfish/fish harvesting affecting invertebrate/fish community composition Medium

157

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A126. Threat assessment of Marengo MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Marengo EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 3 1 0 1 5 6 stormwater 3 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 12 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 014 03 31 01 0 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 1 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 886472073232315420420 82

Primarily concerned with subtidal algal, invertebrate and fish communities Data quality F5 Increased population leads to increased nutrients from nearby sewage outfall Low F6 Increased population leads to increased nutrients from stormwater Low G6 Increased population leads to increased suspended sediments from stormwater Low H6 Increased population leads to increased smothering by sediments from stormwater Low G11 Possible increase in coastal infrastructrue leading to increased suspended sediments Low H11 Possible increase in coastal infrastructrue leading to increased smothering by sediments Low O21 Increased acidity could affect mollusc species changing community composition Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on intertidal communities Medium Q21 Increased UVB affecting algal community in intertidal/shallow subtidal Low R21 Range changes for many species affects community composition Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance of habitats and communities Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment patterns and therefore community composition Low

158

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A127. Threat assessment of Marengo MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Marengo EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 9 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 1 0 0 0 0 1 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 31 010 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 1 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 674372073000112200410 59

Primarily concerned with subtidal algal productivity, feeding habitat for listed birds Data quality F5 Elevated nutrients from sewage outfall affecting algal productivity, food chain for birds Low F6 Nutrients from stormwater causing increased epiphytes affecting algal productivity, food chain for birds Low G6 Sediments from stormwater causing increased epiphytes affecting algal productivity, food chain for birds Low F8 Nutrients from fertilisers used in catchment may affect algal productivity, food chain for birds Low G8 Suspended sediments from erosion in catchment may affect algal productivity, food chain for birds Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef ecosystem function Low S15 Commercial fishing boats could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria ) Low J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on algal productivity, food chain for listed birds High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have impact on ecosystem function depending on species affected Low S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on plant productivity, food chain for listed birds Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria ) into the area Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef ecosystem function Low S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria ) into the area Low

159

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A128. Threat assessment of Marengo MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Marengo EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 3 0 1 4 6 stormwater 3 3 1 1 1 0 1 1 11 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 2 1 1 1 0 7 9 industry non-sewage 1 0 0 0 0 1 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 4 0 3 3 1 0 1 0 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 1 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 1 3 2 3 3 2 2 16 895372073132315420410 79

Primarily concerned with subtidal algal productivity, feeding habitat for listed birds Data quality F5 Increased population leads to increased nutrients from nearby sewage outfall Low F6 Increased population leads to increased nutrients from stormwater Low G6 Increased population leads to increased suspended sediments from stormwater Low G11 Possible increase in coastal infrastructrue leading to increased suspended sediments Low H11 Possible increase in coastal infrastructrue leading to increased smothering by sediments Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on ecosystem function (less intertidal) Medium Q21 Increased UVB affecting productivity of algae in shallow subtidal Low R21 Range changes for many species means significant affect on ecosystem function, productivity Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance affecting ecosystem function Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment patterns and will flow on to changed ecosystem function Low

160

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Eagle Rock MS

A129. Threat assessment of Eagle Rock MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Eagle Rock EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave currents altered noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 0 1 3 6 stormwater 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 31 010 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 2 2 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 33347209300019300420 53

Primarily concerned with listed bird species, seals, mollusc species Data quality M15 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could affect individual species Low J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, effects on wading bird species High M16 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S16 Introduction of new marine pest species could affect individual species Low M18 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S18 Translocation of marine pests could affect individual species Low T18 Disturbance from dogs, horses, vehicles affecting listed bird species, Australian Fur seals Medium M20 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could affect individual species Low X20 Illegal shellfish harvesting affecting invertebrate species, e.g. abalone Medium

161

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A130. Threat assessment of Eagle Rock MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Eagle Rock EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t ter

s d

: t t e l d d

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n altered wave /altered currents underwater noise underwater d ex A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 1 0 1 3 6 stormwater 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 31 010 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 2 3 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 16 333472093231312620420 69

Primarily concerned with listed bird species, seals, mollusc species Data quality T18 Increased disturbance from dogs, horses, vehicles affecting listed birds / Australian Fur seals Medium O21 Increased acidity could affect populations of mollusc species Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on intertidal species populations Medium R21 Temperature exceeding physiological tolerances, increased desiccation will affect intertidal species populations Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance of intertidal, shallow subtidal species Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment dynamics and therefore populations of many species Low

162

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A131. Threat assessment of Eagle Rock MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Eagle Rock EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

o u p b

s B r

r igh

u m s m u

e V

l & t l r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ve ris i v o act

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a

l c c

t bo eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater a d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 1 0 1 4 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 2 1 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 41 010 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 632472074000113300420 58

Primarily concerned with intertidal and subtidal algal and invertebrate communities Data quality F5 Elevated nutrients from sewage outfall affecting algal diversity/habitat (e.g. Hormosira ) Low F6 Pulsed nutrients from Painkalak Creek when open, increased epiphytes affect algal diversity/habitat Low G6 Pulsed sediments from Painkalak Creek when open, reduced light affects algal diversity/habitat Low N6 Pulsed freshwater from Painkalak Creek when open, low salinity affects algal diversity/habitat Low F8 Nutrients from fertilisers used in catchment may affect algal community composition Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef communities Low S15 Commercial fishing boats (e.g. abalone divers) could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on algae/invertebrates on intertidal reefs High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have impact on community composition depending on species affected Low S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on habitat/community composition Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low T18 Fossicking and overturning rocks will cause mortality of rock pool invertebrates, trampling algae Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef communities Medium S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low X20 Illegal shellfish harvesting affecting invertebrate community composition Medium

163

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A132. Threat assessment of Eagle Rock MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Eagle Rock EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 1 0 1 4 6 stormwater 3 3 1 1 1 0 2 1 12 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 014 03 41 01 0 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 3 0 1 0 9 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 742472074232316620420 77

Primarily concerned with intertidal and rock pool invertebrate communities, algal communities Data quality F6 Increasing threat from Painkalak Creek through increased population Low G6 Increasing threat from Painkalak Creek through increased population Low T18 Fossicking and overturning rocks will affect rock pool communities, trampling intertidal algae Medium O21 Increased acidity could affect mollusc species changing community composition Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on intertidal communities Medium Q21 Increased UVB affecting seagrass/algae intertidal and rock pools Low R21 Range changes for many species affects community composition, increased desiccation Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance of habitats and communities Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment patterns and therefore community composition Low

164

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A133. Threat assessment of Eagle Rock MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Eagle Rock EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

lig

o u m s m u

e V

l & t

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

E - - t

s d

e n : t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i ew

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r rac

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents ext d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 9 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 4 0 3 4 1 0 1 0 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 632372073000113300410 55

Primarily concerned with algal productivity, feeding habitat for listed birds Data quality F5 Elevated nutrients from sewage outfall affecting algal productivity, food chain for birds Low F6 Pulsed nutrients from Painkalak Creek, increased epiphytes affect algal productivity, food chain for birds Low G6 Pulsed sediments from Painkalak Creek, increased epiphytes affect algal productivity, food chain for birds Low F8 Nutrients from fertilisers used in catchment may affect algal productivity, food chain for birds Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef ecosystem function Low S15 Commercial fishing boats (e.g. abalone divers) could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) Low J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on algae/seagrass productivity, food chain for listed birds High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have impact on ecosystem function depending on species affected Low S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on plant productivity, food chain for listed birds Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low T18 Trampling of algae leads to decreased productivity Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef ecosystem function Low S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low

165

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A134. Threat assessment of Eagle Rock MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Eagle Rock EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r igh

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r l

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t

s d

e ate : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris ve i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a

l c c

t eb bo u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater d a A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 3 3 1 1 1 0 2 1 12 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 41 010 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 3 0 1 0 9 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 1 3 2 3 3 2 2 16 742372074132316620410 74

Primarily concerned with algal and seagrass productivity, feeding habitat for listed birds Data quality F6 Increasing threat from Painkalak Creek through increased population Low G6 Increasing threat from Painkalak Creek through increased population Low N6 Pulsed freshwater from Painkalak Creek may algal productivity, food chain for listed birds Low F8 Nutrients from fertilisers used in catchment may increase epiphytes affecting algal/seagrass productivity Low T18 Increased population leads to increased trampling of algae and decreased productivity Medium P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on ecosystem function (less intertidal) Medium Q21 Increased UVB affecting productivity of seagrass/algae intertidal and rock pools Low R21 Range changes for many species means significant effect on ecosystem function, productivity Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance affecting ecosystem function Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment patterns and will flow on to changed ecosystem function Low

166

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Point Danger MS

A135. Threat assessment of Point Danger MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Point Danger EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n

A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p /wave altered currents a d e noise underwater Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 4 0 3 3 1 0 1 0 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 2 2 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 33337209300019300420 52

Primarily concerned with listed bird species, important mollusc species Data quality M15 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could affect individual species Low J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, effects on wading bird species High M16 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S16 Introduction of new marine pest species could affect individual species Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could affect individual species Low T18 Disturbance from fossicking, dogs affecting wading bird species, mollusc species Medium M20 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could affect individual species Low X20 Illegal shellfish harvesting affecting invertebrate species, e.g. abalone Medium

167

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A136. Threat assessment of Point Danger MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Point Danger EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 31 010 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 2 3 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 16 333372093231312620420 68

Primarily concerned with listed bird species, important mollusc species Data quality T18 Increased disturbance from fossicking, dogs affecting wading bird species with increased human population Medium O21 Increased acidity could affect populations of mollusc species (e.g. opisthobranch larvae) Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on intertidal species populations Medium R21 Temperature exceeding physiological tolerances, increased desiccation will affect intertidal species populations Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance of intertidal, shallow subtidal species Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment dynamics and therefore populations of many species Low

168

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A137. Threat assessment of Point Danger MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Point Danger EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

C - - t

s d

: t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i ew

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b act i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

t xtr u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents e d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 2 1 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 4 0 3 4 1 0 1 0 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 532372074000113300420 56

Primarily concerned with intertidal and rock pool invertebrate communities, algal communities Data quality F6 Pulsed nutrients from Spring Creek when open, increased epiphytes affect seagrass/algal communities Low G6 Pulsed sediments from Spring Creek when open, reduced light affects seagrass/algal communities Low N6 Pulsed freshwater from Spring Creek when open, low salinity affects seagrass/algal communities Low F8 Nutrients from fertilisers used in catchment may affect algal community composition Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef communities Low S15 Commercial fishing boats (e.g. abalone divers) could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) Low J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on algae/invertebrates on intertidal reefs High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have impact on community composition depending on species affected Low S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on habitat/community composition Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low T18 Fossicking and overturning rocks will cause mortality of rock pool invertebrates, trampling algae Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef communities Low S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low X20 Illegal shellfish harvesting affecting invertebrate community composition Medium

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A138. Threat assessment of Point Danger MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Point Danger EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

C - - t

s d

: t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y br

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered /wave altered currents ex de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 2 1 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 4 0 3 4 1 0 1 0 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 3 0 1 0 9 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 532372074232316620420 73

Primarily concerned with intertidal and rock pool invertebrate communities, algal communities Data quality T18 Fossicking and overturning rocks will affect rock pool communities, trampling intertidal algae Medium O21 Increased acidity could affect mollusc species changing community composition Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on intertidal communities High Q21 Increased UVB affecting seagrass/algae intertidal and rock pools Low R21 Range changes for many species affects community composition, increased desiccation Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance of habitats and communities Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment patterns and therefore community composition Low

170

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A139. Threat assessment of Point Danger MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Point Danger EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

lig

o u m s m u

e V

l & t

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

E - - t

s d

e n : t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ctio

y c e a a p i ew

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r br t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents ex de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 9 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 41 010 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 432372073000113300410 53

Primarily concerned with algal and seagrass productivity, feeding habitat for listed birds Data quality F6 Pulsed nutrients from spring creek may affect seagrass/algal productivity, food chain for listed birds Low G6 Pulsed sediments from spring creek may affect seagrass/algal productivity, food chain for listed birds Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef ecosystem function Medium S15 Commercial fishing boats (e.g. abalone divers) could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) Low J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on algae/seagrass productivity, food chain for listed birds Low M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have impact on ecosystem function depending on species affected High S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major affect on plant productivity, food chain for listed birds Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low T18 Trampling of algae leads to decreased productivity Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef ecosystem function Medium S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Low Low Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Consequence ratings: 0 = Insignificant, 1 = Minor, 2 = Moderate, 3 = Major, 4 = Catastrophic

171

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A140. Threat assessment of Point Danger MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Point Danger EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

e gh

s s B r

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l wa

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

c s

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ac i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y bri

d d l i a

l c c

t xtr u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents de e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 2 1 10 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 4 0 3 4 1 0 1 0 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 3 0 1 0 9 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 1 3 2 3 3 2 2 16 532372074132316620410 71

Primarily concerned with algal and seagrass productivity, feeding habitat for listed birds Data quality N6 Pulsed freshwater from spring creek affects seagrass/algal productivity, food chain for listed birds Low F8 Nutrients from fertilisers used in catchment may increase epiphytes affecting algal/seagrass productivity Low T18 Increased population leads to increased trampling of algae and decreased productivity Medium P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on ecosystem function (less intertidal) Medium Q21 Increased UVB affecting productivity of seagrass/algae intertidal and rock pools Low R21 Range changes for many species means significant effect on ecosystem function, productivity Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance affecting ecosystem function Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment patterns and will flow on to changed ecosystem function Low

172

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Barwon Bluff MS

A141. Threat assessment of Barwon Bluff MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Barwon Bluff EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 stormwater 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 014 03 31 010 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 2 2 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 33337209300019300420 52

Primarily concerned with listed bird species, important mollusc species Data quality M15 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance High S15 Translocation of marine pests could affect individual species Low J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, effects on wading bird species High M16 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S16 Introduction of new marine pest species could affect individual species Low M18 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S18 Translocation of marine pests could effect individual species Low T18 Disturbance from fossicking, dogs affecting wading bird species High M20 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could affect individual species Low X20 Illegal shellfish harvesting affecting invertebrate species, eg abalone Medium

173

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A142. Threat assessment of Barwon Bluff MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Barwon Bluff EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 stormwater 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 31 01 0 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 2 3 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 16 333372093231312620420 68

Primarily concerned with listed bird species, important mollusc species Data quality T18 Increased disturbance from fossicking, dogs affecting wading bird species with increased human population Medium O21 Increased acidity could affect populations of mollusc species Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on intertidal species populations Medium R21 Temperature exceeding physiological tolerances, increased dessication will affect intertidal species populations High S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance of intertidal, shallow subtidal species Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment dynamics and therefore populations of many species Low

174

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A143. Threat assessment of Barwon Bluff MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Barwon Bluff EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

C - - t

s d

e at : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

c s

y c e a a p i ew

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r rac

r bri t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h xt

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater de ab A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 9 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 41 01 0 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 643372073000113300420 58

Primarily concerned with intertidal and rock pool invertebrate communities, algal communities Data quality F5 Nutrients from sewage entering at Black Rock outfall affects algal communities Medium F6 Nutrients from stormwater entering Barwon, increased epiphytes affect algal communities Low G6 Suspended sediments from stormwater entering Barwon, reduced light affects algal communities Low F8 Nutrients from fertilisers used in Barwon catchment may affect algal community composition Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef communities Low S15 Commercial fishing boats (e.g. abalone divers) could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria, Asterias) Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on algae/invertebrates on intertidal reefs High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have impact on community composition depending on species effected Low S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on habitat/community composition Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria, Asterias ) into the area Low T18 Fossicking and overturning rocks will cause mortality of rock pool invertebrates, trampling algae Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef communities Low S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria, Asterias ) into the area Low X20 Illegal shellfish harvesting affecting invertebrate community composition Medium

175

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A144. Threat assessment of Barwon Bluff MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Barwon Bluff EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t

s d

e n : t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

c s

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ac i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y bri

d d l i a

l c c

t xtr e u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /altered currents e d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 9 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 0 14 03 41 01 0 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 3 0 1 0 9 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 743372073232316620420 76

Primarily concerned with intertidal and rock pool invertebrate communities, algal communities Data quality F5 Potential effect of black rock outfall with increased population - increased epiphytes affecting plant habitat Low T18 Fossicking and overturning rocks will cause mortality of rock pool invertebrates, trampling algae Medium O21 Increased acidity could affect mollusc species changing community composition Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on intertidal communities Medium Q21 Increased UVB affecting seagrass/algae intertidal and rockpools Low R21 Range changes for many species means significant effect on community composition, increased dessication Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance of habitats and communities Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment patterns and therefore community composition Low

176

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A145. Threat assessment of Barwon Bluff MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Barwon Bluff EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 9 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 41 010 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 643372073000113300410 57

Primarily concerned with algal and seagrass productivity, feeding habitat for listed birds Data quality F5 Nutrients from sewage entering at Black Rock outfall affects algal productivity, food chain for birds Low F6 Nutrients from stormwater entering Barwon, increased epiphytes affect algal productivity, food chain for birds Low G6 Suspended sediments from stormwater entering Barwon, reduced light affects algal productivity, food for birds Low F8 Nutrients from fertilisers used in Barwon catchment may affect food chain to birds Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal ecosystem Low S15 Commercial fishing boats (e.g. abalone divers) could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria, Asterias) Low J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on algae/seagrass productivity and food chain to birds High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have impact on ecosystem function depending on species affected Low S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on ecosystem function Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria, Asterias) into the area Low T18 Fossicking and overturning rocks, trampling algae will affect primary productivity Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef ecosystem Low S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria, Asterias) into the area Low

177

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A146. Threat assessment of Barwon Bluff MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Barwon Bluff EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 stormwater 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 9 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 2 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 0 1 4 0 3 4 1 0 1 0 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 1 3 2 3 3 2 2 16 643372073132316520410 72

Primarily concerned with algal and seagrass productivity, feeding habitat for listed birds Data quality P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on ecosystem function (less intertidal) Medium Q21 Increased UVB affecting productivity of seagrass/algae intertidal and rockpools Low R21 Range changes for many species means significant affect on ecosystem function, productivity Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance affecting ecosystem function Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment patterns and will flow on to changed ecosytem function Low

178

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Mushroom Reef MS

A147. Threat assessment of Mushroom Reef MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Mushroom Reef EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 1 3 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 31 010 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 2 3 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 6 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 3333820123000111410420 60

Primarily concerned with listed bird species, important mollusc species Data quality M15 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could affect individual species Low J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, effects on wading bird species High M16 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S16 Introduction of new marine pest species could affect individual species Low M18 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S18 Translocation of marine pests could affect individual species Low T18 Disturbance from fossicking, dogs affecting wading bird species Medium M19 Risk of abalone aquaculture introducing virus Low S19 Aquaculture infrastructure (e.g. Flinders AFR) could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria ) Medium M20 Introduction of abalone virus would have major effect on abalone abundance Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could affect individual species Low X20 Illegal shellfish poaching affecting invertebrate species, e.g. abalone Medium

179

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A148. Threat assessment of Mushroom Reef MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Mushroom Reef EXPOSURE stressor

u s

e n l

i s e

r r a

p d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

e gh

c a

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t li r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l wa

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ve ris i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a

l c c

t bo eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater a d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 1 3 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 31 010 13 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 2 3 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 6 20 rec fishing 3 2 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2 3 1 3 3 1 2 15 3333820123231314530420 74

Primarily concerned with listed bird species, important mollusc species Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect viability of mollusc species Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on intertidal mollusc species, wading birds Medium R21 Temperature increase may exceed physiological tolerance of some species Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment patterns of mollusc species Low

180

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A149. Threat assessment of Mushroom Reef MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Mushroom Reef EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 1 3 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 41 010 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 6 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 533382093000116310420 63

Primarily concerned with intertidal and rock pool invertebrate communities, algal communities Data quality F5 Nutrients from Boags Rocks outfall may affect algal community composition Low F8 Nutrients from fertilisers used on surrounding farms may affect algal community composition Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef communities Low S15 Commercial fishing boats (e.g. abalone divers) could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, toxic effects on invertebrates on intertidal reefs High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have impact on community composition depending on species affected Low S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on invertebrate community composition Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium T18 Fossicking and overturning rocks will cause mortality of rock pool invertebrates, trampling algae Medium M19 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef communities Low S19 Aquaculture infrastructure (e.g. Flinders AFR) could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria ) Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef communities Low S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Asterias ) into the area Medium X20 Illegal shellfish poaching affecting invertebrate community composition Medium

181

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A150. Threat assessment of Mushroom Reef MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Mushroom Reef EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 1 3 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01403 41 010 14 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 6 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 16 533382093231319530420 78

Primarily concerned with intertidal and rock pool invertebrate communities, algal communities Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect mollusc species changing community composition Low P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on intertidal communities Medium R21 Range changes for many species means significant effect on community composition Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance of habitats and communities Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment patterns and therefore community composition Low

182

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A151. Threat assessment of Mushroom Reef MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Mushroom Reef EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r lig

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i e

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r br t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n altered /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater de ab A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 1 3 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01303 31 010 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 1 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 6 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 533372093000115210410 59

Primarily concerned with algal and seagrass productivity, feeding and roosting habitat for birds Data quality F5 Nutrients from Boags rocks outfall may increase epiphytes affecting plant productivity/bird habitat Low F8 Nutrients from fertilisers used on surrounding farms may effect plant productivity/bird habitat Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal ecosystem function Low S15 Commercial fishing boats (e.g. abalone divers) could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria , Codium ) Medium J16 Major oil spill/dispersant, would affect benthic productivity/bird habitat High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have impact on ecosystem function depending on species effected Low S16 Introduction of new pest species could have major effect on ecosystem function Low S18 Recreational/tourism boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Codium ) into the area Low M19 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal ecosystem function Low S19 Aquaculture infrastructure (e.g. Flinders AFR) could facilitate introduction of pests (e.g. Undaria ) Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal ecosystem function Medium S20 Recreational fishing boats could facilitate movement of pests (e.g. Undaria , Codium ) into the area Low

183

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A152. Threat assessment of Mushroom Reef MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Mushroom Reef EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 1 3 6 stormwater 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 1 1 3 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 16 shipping 01303 31 010 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 1 3 1 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 6 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 15 533372093122318430410 73

Primarily concerned with algal and seagrass productivity

Data quality P21 Sea level rise likely to have a significant effect on bird roosting/feeding Medium Q21 Increased UVB affecting productivity of algae and seagrass in intertidal/shallow subtidal Low R21 Range changes for many species means significant effect on ecosystem function (e.g. increased urchins) Medium S21 Climate change may provide suitable conditions for introduction of new marine pests Low T21 Increased storm frequency will lead to greater physical disturbance of bird roosting/feeding Low U21 Altered currents likely to affect recruitment patterns and therefore ecosystem function Low

184

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Wilsons Promontory MNP

A153. Threat assessment of Wilsons Promontory MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Wilsons Prom EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n

A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p /wave altered currents a d e noise underwater Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 2 0 0 2 1 0 10 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 2 1 1 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 30016008000019200520 37

This primarily concerns listed birds (e.g. hooded plovers, little penguins), mammals (e.g. seals, whales), listed fish (e.g. seadragons, great white shark), abalone Data quality J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting listed birds Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting listed species / abalone Low W15 Debris from commercial fishing operations could affect listed birds/mammals Medium J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on listed birds/mammals High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on listed/important marine species Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in habitat affecting listed species/abalone Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting listed species/abalone Low T18 Recreational boats disturbing listed species (e.g. seal colonies) Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting listed species/abalone Low

185

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A154. Threat assessment of Wilsons Promontory MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Wilsons Prom EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r igh

u m s m u

e V

l & t r l

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l wa

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b act ve i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y o

d d l i a tr

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater ex ab A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p d Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 2 0 0 2 1 0 10 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 2 1 1 6 21 Climate Change 2323322 17 300160080232312420520 53

This primarily concerns listed birds (e.g. hooded plovers, little penguins), mammals (e.g. seals, whales), listed fish (e.g. seadragons, great white shark), abalone Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect abalone/other invertebrate species Low P21 Sea level rise could affect intertidal habitat for listed birds, mammals Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect listed fish/abalone larvae Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some listed species, increased competition Medium S21 May be more favourable environment for introduced species affecting habitat for listed species Low T21 Increased storms causing physical disturbance will affect listed birds/mammals Low U21 Altered waves and current may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of listed fish/abalone Low

186

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A155. Threat assessment of Wilsons Promontory MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Wilsons Prom EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t ter

s d

: t t e l d d a

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i ew

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r ra

r br t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

t xt u e e e i e n a a c e e h b

n n underwater noise underwater altered /wave altered currents de e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 forestry 0 0 0 0 agriculture 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 ports / channels / dredging 0 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 9 shipping 013 3 30 01 0 11 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 400160070000112200430 40

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal communities, subtidal invertebrate communities, fish diversity, seagrass habitats

Data quality F5 Nutrients from sewage point sources affect macroalgal communities, seagrass habitat Low J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting intertidal habitat/community Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Low J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on intertidal, shallow subtidal community/diversity High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species with flow on to habitat/community Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in habitat cover and diversity of all types of biota Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Low T18 Propeller scour of seagrass beds, anchor damage Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, sessile invertebrate community Low X20 Illegal harvesting of shellfish in shallow subtidal has potential flow on effects to community Medium

187

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A156. Threat assessment of Wilsons Promontory MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Wilsons Prom EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave / currents altered noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 9 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 2 8 21 Climate Change 2223322 16 400160070222315420430 55

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal communities, subtidal invertebrate communities, fish diversity, seagrass habitats

Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect invertebrates with calcium carbonate skeletons Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce intertidal habitat and light for shallow subtidal habitat (e.g. seagrass) Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect marine larvae and seagrass Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, lead to range change (e.g. black urchins) Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species, affecting communities/diversity Low T21 Physical disturbance likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge affecting intertidal/shallow subtidal biota Low U21 Altered waves and current under climate change may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of biota Low

188

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A157. Threat assessment of Wilsons Promontory MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Wilsons Prom EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

lig

o u m s m u

e V

l & t

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

E - - t

s d

: t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y br

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents ex de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 9 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 2 0 1 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 300160070000112200420 38

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal/seagrass productivity, breeding and feeding areas for seals, birds Data quality J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks affecting feeding and breeding of birds, mammals Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to reef ecosystem function Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal/seagrass productivity Low J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on feeding and breeding of birds/mammals, seagrass productivity Medium M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species with flow on to ecosystem function Low S16 New marine pests lead to change in macroalgal/seagrass productivity, food chain for birds/mammals Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal/seagrass productivity Low T18 Boats disturb seal/penguin colonies affecting breeding, walkers disturb hooded plover breeding Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to reef ecosystem function Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal/seagrass productivity Low

189

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A158. Threat assessment of Wilsons Promontory MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Wilsons Prom EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

o u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

E - - t

s d

: t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r ove t a s d t s y br

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater a de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ex Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 9 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 3 0 1 0 9 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 1 1 7 21 Climate Change 2224322 17 300160070222415520420 55

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal/seagrass productivity, breeding and feeding areas for seals, birds

Data quality T18 Increased visitation leads to greater disturbance of bird/marine mammal breeding Medium O21 Acidity affects plankton in pelagic food chain for birds, marine mammals Low P21 Sea level rise affects seagrass productivity, breeding habitat for penguins, seals Medium Q21 Increased UVB affects seagrass productivity, plankton in pelagic food chain for birds/marine mammals Low R21 Increased temp leads to change in species ranges affecting ecosystem function Medium S21 May be favourable conditions for introduction of exotic species affecting ecological function Low T21 Increased physical disturbance from storm activity affects breeding/feeding of birds/marine mammals Low U21 Altered waves, currents affects plankton productivity and pelagic food chain for birds/marine mammals Low

190

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the 90 Mile Beach MNP

A159. Threat assessment of 90 Mile Beach MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

90 Mile Beach EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t ter

s d

: t t e l d d a

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i ew

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n altered wave / altered currents underwater noise underwater ex ab A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p d Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 16 shipping 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 0 2 2 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 11115000000010200040 16

This primarily concerns listed shore and sea birds, Great white shark, and economically important fish (e.g. snapper, gummy shark)

Data quality X15 Illegal commercial fishing affects populations of important fish species Low J16 Significant oil spill affects listed shore and seabird species High T18 Disturbance from recreation (Vehicles, dogs) affects shorebirds (e.g. nesting) Medium X20 Illegal recreational fishing affects populations of important fish species Low

191

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A160. Threat assessment of 90 Mile Beach MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

90 Mile Beach EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y br

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n altered wave /altered currents underwater noise underwater ex a A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p de Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 16 shipping 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 3 0 0 0 4 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 0 0 2 2 21 Climate Change 2213122 13 11115000022131520040 29

This primarily concerns listed shore and sea birds, and economically important fish (e.g. snapper, gummy shark)

Data quality T18 Increased recreation on beach (vehicles, dogs etc.) affects shorebirds Low O21 Acidity may affect planktonic food chain for listed seabirds Low P21 Sea level rise may affect suitability of habitat for listed shorebirds Low R21 Increased temp will affect thermal tolerances, cause range shifts in listed birds, important fish Medium T21 Increased physical disturbance from storm activity affecting shorebirds Low U20 Altered waves/currents cause beach erosion affecting shorebirds, alter larval dispersal/recruitment of fish Low

192

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A161. Threat assessment of 90 Mile Beach MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

90 Mile Beach EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

C - - t

s d

e n : t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c ctio c s

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y bri

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents de ex A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 7 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 0 0 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 11115009000019000000 28

This primarily concerns high diversity of subtidal benthic invertebrates Data quality M15 Introduction of pathogen (e.g. bait) may affect invertebrate diversity Low S15 Translocation of marine pests (e.g. screw shell) could lead to reduction in benthic invertebrate diversity Low J16 Significant oil spill would have impact on subtidal invertebrate diversity Medium M16 Introduction of a new pathogen in ballast water could have major impact on benthic invertebrate diversity Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests in ballast water could affect benthic invertebrate diversity Low M20 Introduction of pathogen (e.g. bait) may affect invertebrate diversity Low S20 Translocation of marine pests (e.g. screw shell) could lead to reduction in benthic invertebrate diversity Medium

193

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A162. Threat assessment of 90 Mile Beach MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

90 Mile Beach EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 7 16 shipping 012 3 30000 9 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 0 0 6 21 Climate Change 2113322 14 111140090211312220000 40

This primarily concerns high diversity of subtidal benthic invertebrates Data quality O21 Increased acidity may affect invertebrates with calcareous exoskeleton/shell affecting diversity Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, lead to range change affecting diversity Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species, affecting diversity Low T21 Physical disturbance likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge affecting shallow subtidal biota Low U21 Altered waves and currents may change larval dispersal and recruitment of biota affecting diversity Low

194

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A163. Threat assessment of 90 Mile Beach MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

90 Mile Beach EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 7 16 shipping 0 1 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 0 0 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 11115001000001 9000000 29

This primarily concerns benthic invertebrate and pelagic productivity, food chain for birds, fish Data quality M15 Introduction of pathogen (e.g. bait) may affect infaunal/pelagic productivity, food chain Low S15 Translocation of marine pests (e.g. screw shell) could lead to reduction in benthic invertebrate productivity Low J16 Significant oil spill would have impact on benthic invertebrate productivity Medium M16 Introduction of a new pathogen in ballast water affecting benthic invertebrate productivity, pelagic food chain Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests in ballast water could affect benthic invertebrate productivity Low M20 Introduction of pathogen (e.g. bait) may affect infaunal/pelagic productivity, food chain Low S20 Translocation of marine pests (e.g. screw shell) could lead to reduction in benthic invertebrate productivity Medium

195

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A164. Threat assessment of 90 Mile Beach MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

90 Mile Beach EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 7 16 shipping 0 1 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 0 0 6 21 Climate Change 2113312 13 1111500100211312120000 41

This primarily concerns benthic invertebrate and pelagic productivity, food chain for birds, fish Data quality O21 Increased acidity may affect plankton in the pelagic food chain, benthic invertebrate productivity Low R21 Increased temp will affect physiological tolerances and productivity Medium S21 Climate change may make habitat more suitable for introduced pests, affect benthic invertebrate productivity Low U21 Altered waves and currents may affect pelagic productivity Low

196

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Point Hicks MNP

A165. Threat assessment of Point Hicks MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Point Hicks EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t ter

s d

e a : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i ew

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r ov t a s d t s y br

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n altered /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater ab e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p de Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 3 0 0 2 1 0 11 16 shipping 013 3 30020 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 0 3 9 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 111160090000212010440 42

This primarily concerns listed sea and shorebirds, marine mammals (e.g. whales, seals), fish (e.g. eastern blue groper), abalone, rock lobster Data quality J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting listed birds Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting abalone, rock lobster, fish Low W15 Debris from commercial fishing operations could affect listed birds/mammals Medium J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on listed birds/mammals High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on listed/important marine species Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to habitat change affecting abalone, rock lobster, fish Low W16 Debris from shipping could affect listed birds/mammals Medium S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting abalone, rock lobster, fish Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting abalone, rock lobster, fish Low X20 Illegal harvesting of shellfish (e.g. abalone) reduces populations Medium R21 Increased presence of black urchins leads to reduced abalone habitat Medium

197

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A166. Threat assessment of Point Hicks MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Point Hicks EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

e gh

c a

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t

s d

e n : t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

c s

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ac i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y bri

d d l i a

l c c

t xtr u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents de e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 3 0 0 2 1 0 11 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 2 0 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 0 3 9 21 Climate Change 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 16 111160090222315220440 55

This primarily concerns listed sea and shorebirds, marine mammals (e.g. whales, seals), fish (e.g. eastern blue groper), abalone, rock lobster Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect abalone/other invertebrate species Low P21 Sea level rise could affect intertidal habitat for listed birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect listed fish/abalone larvae Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some listed species, increased competition Medium S21 May be more favourable environment for introduced species affecting habitat for important species Low T21 Increased storms causing physical disturbance will affect listed birds Low U21 Altered waves and current may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of listed fish/abalone/lobster Low

198

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A167. Threat assessment of Point Hicks MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Point Hicks EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 111160070000212010030 35

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal communities, subtidal invertebrate communities/diversity, fish diversity Data quality J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting shallow subtidal communities Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, benthic invertebrate community Medium J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on intertidal, shallow subtidal community/diversity High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species with flow on to community/diversity Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in diversity of all types of biota Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, benthic invertebrate community Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, benthic invertebrate community Medium X20 Illegal harvesting of shellfish in shallow subtidal has potential flow on effects to community Low R21 Increased presence of black urchins leads to reduced macroalgal community and associated fish Medium

199

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A168. Threat assessment of Point Hicks MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Point Hicks EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 2224322 17 111160070222415220030 49

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal communities, subtidal invertebrate communities/diversity, fish diversity Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect benthic invertebrates with calcium carbonate skeletons Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce intertidal habitat and light for subtidal habitat (e.g. macroalgae) Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect intertidal/shallow subtidal macroalgae Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, lead to range change (e.g. black urchins) Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species, affecting communities/diversity Low T21 Physical disturbance likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge affecting intertidal/shallow subtidal biota Low U21 Altered waves and current may alter larval dispersal and recruitment of biota, affecting community composition Low

200

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A169. Threat assessment of Point Hicks MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Point Hicks EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

o u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t ter

s d

e n : t t e l d d a

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i ew

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r br t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents e de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 1 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 111160070000212010020 34

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal productivity, feeding and roosting of listed birds Data quality J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks affecting feeding and feeding and roosting of birds Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to reef ecosystem function Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in macroalgal productivity Low J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on feeding and roosting of birds High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species with flow on to ecosystem function Low S16 New marine pests lead to change in macroalgal productivity, food chain for birds Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in macroalgal productivity Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to reef ecosystem function Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in macroalgal productivity Low R21 Increased presence of black urchins leads to reduced macroalgal productivity Medium

201

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A170. Threat assessment of Point Hicks MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Point Hicks EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r igh

o u m s m u

e V

l & t l r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y br

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater a A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p de ex Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 1 6 21 Climate Change 2 2 2 4 3 2 2 17 111160070222415220020 48

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal productivity, feeding and roosting of listed birds Data quality O21 Acidity affects plankton in pelagic food chain for birds, marine mammals Low P21 Sea level rise affects feeding and roosting of birds Medium Q21 Increased UVB affects algal productivity, plankton in pelagic food chain for birds/marine mammals Low R21 Increased temp leads to change in species ranges affecting ecosystem function (e.g. urchins, macroalgal productivity) Medium S21 May be favourable conditions for introduction of exotic species affecting ecological function Low T21 Increased physical disturbance from storm activity affects breeding/roosting of birds Low U21 Altered waves, currents affects planton productivity and pelagic food chain for birds/marine mammals Low

202

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Cape Howe MNP

A171. Threat assessment of Cape Howe MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Cape Howe EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n

A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p wave / altered currents a d e noise underwater Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 3 0 0 2 1 0 11 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 2 0 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 0 3 9 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 100160090000212010440 40

203

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A172. Threat assessment of Cape Howe MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Cape Howe EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t ter

s d

e a : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i ew

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb xtr

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater ab A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p d e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 3 0 0 2 1 0 11 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 2 0 12 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 0 3 9 21 Climate Change 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 16 100160090222315220440 53

204

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A173. Threat assessment of Cape Howe MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Cape Howe EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

C - - t

s d

e at : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ve ris i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a

l c c

t bo eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater a d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 111160070000212010030 35

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal communities, intertidal/subtidal invertebrate communities/diversity, deep sessile invertebrate communities, fish diversity Data quality J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting shallow subtidal communities Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, benthic invertebrate community Medium J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on intertidal, shallow subtidal community/diversity High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species with flow on to community/diversity Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in diversity of all types of biota Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, benthic invertebrate community Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, benthic invertebrate community Medium X20 Illegal harvesting of shellfish (e.g. abalone) in shallow subtidal has potential flow on effects to community Low R21 Increased presence of black urchins leads to reduced macroalgal community and associated fish Medium

205

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A174. Threat assessment of Cape Howe MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Cape Howe EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

o u p b

s B r

ligh

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c s cti

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y bri

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater de ex A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 2224322 17 111160070222415220030 49

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal communities, intertidal/subtidal invertebrate communities/diversity, deep sessile invertebrate communities, fish diversity Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect benthic invertebrates with calcium carbonate skeletons Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce intertidal habitat and light for subtidal habitat (e.g. macroalgae) Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect intertidal/shallow subtidal macroalgae Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, lead to range change (e.g. black urchin barrens) Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species, affecting communities/diversity Low T21 Physical disturbance likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge affecting intertidal/shallow subtidal biota Low U21 Altered waves and current may alter larval dispersal and recruitment of biota, affecting community composition Low

206

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A175. Threat assessment of Cape Howe MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Cape Howe EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 111160070000212010030 35

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal productivity, feeding area for listed birds, little penguins, breeding area for NZ fur seals

Data quality J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting bird feeding, seal breeding Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to reef ecosystem function Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in macroalgal productivity Low J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on bird feeding, seal breeding, macroalgal productivity High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species with flow on to ecosystem function Low S16 New marine pests lead to change in macroalgal productivity, food chain for birds Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in macroalgal productivity Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to reef ecosystem function Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in macroalgal productivity Low X20 Illegal harvesting of shellfish (e.g. abalone) in shallow subtidal has potential flow on effects to ecosystem function Low R21 Increased presence of black urchins leads to reduced macroalgal productivity Medium

207

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A176. Threat assessment of Cape Howe MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Cape Howe EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r igh

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r l

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a tra

l c c

t eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /altered currents d ex A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 2 3 2 4 3 2 2 18 111160070232415220030 50

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal productivity, feeding area for listed birds, little penguins, breeding area for NZ fur seals

Data quality O21 Acidity affects plankton in pelagic food chain for fish, birds, marine mammals Low P21 Sea level rise affects bird feeding, sea breeding, intertidal/shallow subtidal algal productivity Medium Q21 Increased UVB affects algal productivity, plankton in pelagic food chain for birds/marine mammals Low R21 Increased temp leads to change in species ranges affecting ecosystem function (e.g. urchins, macroalgal productivity) Medium S21 May be favourable conditions for introduction of exotic species affecting ecological function Low T21 Increased physical disturbance from storm activity affects bird feeding, seal breeding Low U21 Altered waves, currents affects plankton productivity and pelagic food chain for birds/marine mammals Low

208

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Beware Reef MS

A177. Threat assessment of Beware Reef MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

Beware Reef EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r lig

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

c s

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r bri t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /altered currents de ab A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 9 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 0 3 9 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 111170090000212110040 40

Listed seabirds, little penguins, NZ and Australian fur seals, abalone, weedy seadragon Data quality J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting listed birds Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting abalone, listed fish Low J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on listed birds/mammals High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on listed/important marine species Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to habitat change affecting abalone, listed fish Low J18 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from recreational vessels affecting listed birds/mammals Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting abalone, listed fish Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population Medium S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to habitat changes affecting abalone, listed fish Low X20 Illegal harvesting of abalone has major effect on abalone population Medium R21 Increased presence of black urchins leads to reduced abalone habitat Medium

209

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A178. Threat assessment of Beware Reef MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

Beware Reef EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t

s d

e ate : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

b ve i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y br

d d l i a tr

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n altered wave wave / altered currents underwater noise underwater de a A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ex Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 9 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 7 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 3 0 3 9 21 Climate Change 2223322 16 111170090222315320040 53

Listed seabirds, little penguins, NZ and Australian fur seals, abalone, weedy seadragon Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect abalone/other invertebrate species (e.g. larvae) Low P21 Sea level rise could affect haul out of seals, penguins Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect listed fish/abalone larvae Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, lead to range change (e.g. black urchins) Medium S21 May be more favourable environment for introduced species affecting habitat for important species Low T21 Increased storms causing physical disturbance will affect listed birds, mammals Low U21 Altered waves and current may affect larval dispersal and recruitment of listed fish/abalone Low

210

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A179. Threat assessment of Beware Reef MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

Beware Reef EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 2 3 2 0 0 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 111170070000212210030 38

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal communities, subtidal invertebrate communities/diversity, fish diversity

Data quality J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting shallow subtidal communities Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, benthic invertebrate community Medium J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on intertidal, shallow subtidal community/diversity High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species with flow on to community/diversity Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to change in diversity of all types of biota Low J18 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from recreational vessels affecting shallow subtidal communities Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, benthic invertebrate community Medium T18 Disturbance of benthic habitat from anchoring of recreational vessels Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal reef community Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in algal diversity, benthic invertebrate community Medium X20 Illegal harvesting of abalone on subtidal reef has potential flow on effects to community structure/diversity Medium R21 Increased presence of black urchins leads to reduced macroalgal community and associated fish Medium

211

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A180. Threat assessment of Beware Reef MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

Beware Reef EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t ter

s d

: t t e l d d a

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i ew

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r br t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /altered currents ex de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 2 3 2 0 0 0 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 2224322 17 111170070222415420030 52

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal communities, subtidal invertebrate communities/diversity, fish diversity

Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect benthic invertebrates with calcium carbonate skeletons Low P21 Sea level rise may reduce intertidal habitat and light for subtidal habitat (e.g. macroalgae) Medium Q21 Increased UVB may negatively affect intertidal/shallow subtidal macroalgae Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances of some species, lead to range change (e.g. black urchins) Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species, affecting communities/diversity Low T21 Physical disturbance likely to increase with increased storm activity/surge affecting intertidal/shallow subtidal biota Low U21 Altered waves and current may alter larval dispersal and recruitment of biota, affecting community composition Low

212

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A181. Threat assessment of Beware Reef MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

Beware Reef EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r igh

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r l

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t

s d

e n : t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris ac i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a

l c c

t eb xtr u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /wave altered currents d e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 5 years F GH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 013 2 30000 9 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 1 0 0 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 111160060000212110030 35

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal productivity

Data quality J15 Oil/dispersant associated with leaks from commercial fishing vessels affecting subtidal algal productivity Low M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal algal productivity Low S15 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in macroalgal productivity Low J16 Significant oil spill would have major impact on intertidal, shallow subtidal algal productivity High M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on affected species with flow on to algal productivity Low S16 Introduction of new marine pests could lead to major change in macroalgal productivity Low S18 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in macroalgal productivity Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to subtidal algal productivity Low S20 Translocation of marine pests could lead to change in macroalgal productivity Low X20 Illegal harvesting of abalone on subtidal reef has potential flow on effects to ecosystem function Medium R21 Increased presence of black urchins leads to reduced macroalgal productivity Medium

213

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A182. Threat assessment of Beware Reef MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

Beware Reef EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

lig

o u m s m u

e V

l & t

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

E - - t

s d

: t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ove

d d l i a tra

l c c

t b u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave wave / altered currents ex a A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p d Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 stormwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 forestry 1 1 0 2 8 agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 8 16 shipping 013 2 30000 9 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 1 0 1 3 1 0 0 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 2 7 21 Climate Change 2224312 16 111160060222415220030 48

This primarily concerns subtidal macroalgal and planktonic productivity

Data quality O21 Acidity affects plankton in pelagic food chain for birds, marine mammals Low P21 Sea level rise affects intertidal, shallow subtidal algal productivity Medium Q21 Increased UVB affects algal productivity, plankton in pelagic food chain for birds/marine mammals Low R21 Increased temp leads to change in species ranges affecting ecosystem function (e.g. urchins, macroalgal productivity) Medium S21 May be favourable conditions for introduction of exotic species affecting algal productivity Low U21 Altered waves, currents affects plankton productivity and pelagic food chain for birds/marine mammals Low

214

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Port Phillip Bay sedimentary basin

A183. Threat assessment of the Port Phillip Bay Sedimentary Basin for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

PPB SEDIMENT BASIN EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t

s d

e ate : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ve ac i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y b

d d l i a

l c c

t bo u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n altered wave /altered currents underwater noise underwater a e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p de Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 0 1 0 0 0 3 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 1 1 1 0 0 3 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 1 0 0 1 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 002 0 30000 5 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 20 rec fishing 0 2 0 0 2 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 703120002000010310000 29

Comments This primarily concerns the diverse community of benthic infauna Data quality F5 Excess nutrients could cause eutrophication/anoxia. Sewage source localised, controlled and decreasing High F6 Excess nutrients could cause eutrophication/anoxia. Stormwater source diffuse, uncontrolled Medium F8 Excess nutrients could cause eutrophication/anoxia. Agriculture source diffuse, uncontrolled Medium S15 Potential translocation of marine pest species (e.g. Asterias) Low J16 Effects of oil/dispersant on benthic infauna Medium S16 Introduction of new marine pest species Low S18 Potential translocation of marine pest species (e.g. Asterias) Low S20 Potential translocation of marine pest species (e.g. Asterias) Low

215

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A184. Threat assessment of the Port Phillip Bay Sedimentary Basin for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

PPB SEDIMENT BASIN EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

C - - t

s d

e at : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ctio

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ve i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r ra

t a s d t s y

d d l i a

l c c

t bo eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h xt

n n altered wave / altered currents underwater noise underwater a d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 2 6 stormwater 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 5 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 0 1 0 0 0 3 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 1 0 0 1 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 1 1 1 0 0 3 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 1 0 0 1 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 16 shipping 002 0 30000 5 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 20 rec fishing 0 2 0 0 2 21 Climate Change 2003321 11 703120002200313520000 40

Comments This primarily concerns the diverse community of benthic infauna Data quality O21 Increased acidity could affect benthic infauna with calcareous skeletons Low R21 Increased temp could exceed physiological tolerance/cause range shift, changing community composition Medium S21 May be increased vulnerability to invasion by marine pests leading to community change Low T21 Flooding associated with increased storms may affect marine invertebrate community - mainly Hobsons Bay Low

216

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A185. Threat assessment of the Port Phillip Bay Sedimentary Basin for the attribute “Ecological Function” over a 5 year time frame

PPB SEDIMENT BASIN EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time Frame 5 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 marine energy 0 0 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 16 shipping 00003 30000 6 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 20 rec fishing 3 1 0 0 4 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60000001300000 7000000 26

Comments This primarily concerns the de-nitification role of the sedimentary basin Data quality F5 Excess nutrients could overwhelm denitrification. Sewage source localised, controlled and decreasing High F6 Excess nutrients could overwhelm denitrification. Stormwater source diffuse, uncontrolled, in Hobsons Bay confined Medium F8 Excess nutrients could overwhelm denitrification. Agriculture source diffuse, uncontrolled Medium M15* Possible for pathogen to affect denitrying bacteria, potential from imported bait Low M16* Possible for pathogen to affect denitrying bacteria, potential vector from shipping Low S16 Possible effect of pests on bioturbation efficiency Low M19* Possible for pathogen to affect denitrying bacteria, potential from imported aquaculture food Low M20* Possible for pathogen to affect denitrying bacteria, potential from imported bait Low

*There is no immediate pathogen risk identified at the time of this assessment

217

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A186. Threat assessment of the Port Phillip Bay Sedimentary Basin for the attribute “Ecological Function” over a 60 year time frame

PPB SEDIMENT BASIN EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

y p

o u p b

s s B r

lig

o u m s m u

e V

l & t

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

E - - t

s d

e n : t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ac ris i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a

l c c

t xtr eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n altered wave /altered currents underwater noise underwater e d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 60 years F GH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 0 1 6 stormwater 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 forestry 0 0 0 0 8 agriculture 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 ports / channels / dredging 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 marine energy 0 0 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 16 shipping 00003 30000 6 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 19 aquaculture 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 20 rec fishing 3 1 0 0 4 21 Climate Change 2003321 11 600000013020031021000 0 37

Comments This primarily concerns the de-nitification role of the sedimentary basin Data quality O21 The nitrification stage of the denitrifcation process is vulnerable to acidity Low R21 Increased temperature is potentially negative for denitrification if stratification increases Low S21 May be increased vulnerability to invasion by marine pests that could affect denitrification efficiency Low T21 Flooding associated with increased storms may have localised effect on dentrification - mainly Hobsons Bay Low

*There is no immediate pathogen risk identified at the time of this assessment

218

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Threat assessment of the Bonney upwelling region

A187. Threat assessment of the Bonney upwelling region for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

BONNEY UW EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

ligh

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r br t a s d t s y o

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave / altered currents ex de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 5 years FGH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 6 stormwater 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0

10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 3 0 2 0 2 2 0 10 16 shipping 0 0 4 3 1 1 0 1 1 11 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 1 0 3 5 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 3 0 2 0 1 1 8 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 3 0 1 2 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 33007001200001 1610545 48

Focus here on blue whales, abalone, rock lobster, southern bluefin tuna Data quality M15 Translocation of abalone virus causing mortality of abalone Medium T15 Entanglement whales in nets, ropes leads to injury or mortality Medium W15 Entanglement of whales in lost or discarded nets, ropes leads to injury or mortality Medium X15 Commercial fisheries for abalone and rock lobster are generally well managed High M16 Introduction of new pathogen through ships ballast water Low J16 Major oil spill and associated dispersants from shipping accident affects whale migration/feeding Low J17 Oil spill and associated dispersants affect whale migration/feeding Low Y17 Underwater noise from seismic testing affects whale migration/feeding behaviour Low M18 Translocation of abalone virus causing mortality of abalone Medium T18 Physical disturbance from whale tourism operators Medium M20 Translocation of abalone virus causing mortality of abalone Medium X20 Recreational take of southern bluefin tuna, less management control than commercial fisheries Low

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A188. Threat assessment of the Bonney upwelling region for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

BONNEY UW EXPOSURE stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

ligh

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t

s d

: t t e l d d ate

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r o t a s d t s y br

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h

n n altered wave wave /altered currents underwater noise underwater ab de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ex Time Frame 60 years FGH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 6 stormwater 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0

Focus here on blue whales, abalone, rock lobster, southern bluefin tuna Data quality O21 Increased acidity may affect invertebrate larvae with calareous skeleton (e.g. abalone) Low Q21 Increased UVB may affect invertebrate and fish larvae near the surface Low R21 Increased temperature may exceed physiological tolerance of species, may cause range shift Low U21 Change in upwelling conditions through changes to predominant winds would have catastrophic effect on species Low

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A189. Threat assessment of the Bonney upwelling region for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

BONNEY UW EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

C - - t

s d

e n : t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

b ac i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y br

d d l i a

l c c

t xtr u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /altered currents de e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time Frame 5 years FGH IJKLMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 6 stormwater 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 7 16 shipping 003 2 30000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 0 0 0 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 1 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 330070080000112030020 39

Focus here on diverse/unique algae and sessile invertebrates, planktonic community composition Data quality M15 Translocation of abalone virus causes change in benthic community composition Low S15 Translocation of marine pests by commercial fishing boats affects benthic diversity Low M16 Introduction of new pathogen causes shift in benthic/planktonic community composition Low J16 Major oil spill from shipping accident affects benthic/planktonic community composition Medium S16 New introduced pests from shipping/ballast water affects benthic diversity/community composition Low J17 Oil spill and associated dispersants affect benthic/planktonic community composition Medium M18 Translocation of abalone virus causes change in benthic community composition Low S18 Translocation of marine pests by tourism/recreation boats affects benthic diversity Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus causes change in benthic community composition Low S20 Translocation of marine pests by recreational fishing boats affects benthic diversity Low

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A190. Threat assessment of the Bonney upwelling region for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

BONNEY UW EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

C - - t

s d

e at : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ve ac i v o ris

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a

l c c

t bo xtr u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n altered /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater a e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p d Time Frame 60 years FGH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 6 stormwater 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 7 16 shipping 003 2 30000 8 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 0 0 0 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 6 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 3 0 1 6 21 Climate Change 2123313 15 330070080212315150020 52

Focus here on diverse/unique algae and sessile invertebrates, planktonic community composition Data quality O21 Increased acidity affects benthic and planktonic community composition Low Q21 Increased UVB may affect planktonic community composition Low R21 May exceed physiological tolerance of species, may cause range shifts, affecting community composition Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species, changing community composition Low U21 Change in upwelling conditions through changes to predominant winds would have large effects on communities Medium

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A191. Threat assessment of the Bonney upwelling region for the attribute “Ecological Function” over a 5 year time frame

BONNEY UW EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r igh

o u m s m u

e V

l & t l r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l wa

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris i v o ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

r b t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h xtr

n n underwater noise underwater altered /wave altered currents de e A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab Time Frame 5 years FGH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 6 stormwater 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 7 16 shipping 0 0 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 0 0 0 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 2 0 2 6 21 Climate Change 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 3300800900001 9030040 40

Focus on high pelagic/benthic productivity, including high productivity of krill for blue whale feeding Data quality M15 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to benthic productivity Low S15 Translocation of pests by commercial fishing boats affects benthic productivity Low X15 Commercial fishing affects trophic pathways and benthic/pelagic productivity Low J16 Major oil spill and associated dispersants from shipping accident affects phytoplankton/krill productivity Medium M16 Introduction of a new pathogen could have major impact on productivity depending on species affected Low S16 Introduced pests from shipping/ballast water affects planktonic food chain to krill, benthic productivity Low J17 Oil spill and associated dispersants affect phytoplankton/krill productivity Low M18 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to benthic productivity Low S18 Translocation of pests by tourism/recreation boats affects benthic productivity Low M20 Translocation of abalone virus affecting abalone population and possible flow on to benthic productivity Low S20 Translocation of pests by recreational fishing boats affects benthic productivity Low X20 Recreational fishing affects trophic pathways and benthic/pelagic productivity Low

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

A192. Threat assessment of the Bonney upwelling region for the attribute “Ecological Function” over a 60 year time frame

BONNEY UW EXPOSURE stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

e gh

s s B r

o u m s m u

e V

l & t li r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e wa

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

c s

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ri ac

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb xtr

n n underwater noise underwater altered /wave altered currents

A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab d e Time Frame 60 years FGH IJK LMNOPQR S TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 1 0 1 6 stormwater 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 0 0 0 8 agriculture 1 1 0 0 0 2 9 industry non-sewage 0 0 0 0 0 10 air quality 0 0 0 0 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 12 ports / channels / dredging 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 13 marine energy 0 14 artificial reefs 0 0 0 0 0 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 7 16 shipping 0 0 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 10 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 1 0 0 0 1 18 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 5 19 aquaculture 0 20 rec fishing 2 2 0 2 6 21 Climate Change 3123314 17 330080090312312160040 55

Focus on high pelagic/benthic productivity, including high productivity of krill for blue whale feeding Data quality O21 Increased acidity may affect planktonic, including krill, productivity Low Q21 Increased UVB may affect planktonic , including krill, productivity in the surface layers Low R21 Temperature may exceed thermal tolerances and change phenology of species, affecting productivity Medium S21 Climate change could see more favourable environment for introduced species, affecting benthic productivity Low U21 Change in upwelling conditions through changes to predominant winds would have large effects on productivity Low

224

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Appendix B. Risk Assessment Tables

Risk assessment for the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP

B1. Likelihood table for the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP over a 5 year time frame

SWAN BAY LIKELIHOOD stressor

e n l

i s e

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

- - t t

s d

t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e

t i e

w i

m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave /altered currents noise underwater n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I J K L MNOPQRS TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 6 stormwater 3 4 3 3 7 forestry 8 agriculture 3 3 9 industry non-sewage 10 air quality 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 4 4 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 5 5 3 4 13 marine energy 14 artificial reefs 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 3 1 2 16 shipping 1 1 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 18 tourism / recreation / boating 2 19 aquaculture 20 rec fishing 3 3 21 Climate Change

Comments Data quality F6 Stormwater from Queenscliff will have low nutrients - localised effect on Swan Bay (e.g. seagrass) possible Low G6 Stormwater from Queenscliff will have sediments - likely localised effect on Swan Bay (e.g. seagrass) Low H6 Stormwater from Queenscliff will have sediments - likely localised effect on Swan Bay (e.g. seagrass) Low N6 It is possible that lower salinity from stormwater could have localised effect on Swan Bay ecosystem Low F8 Nutrients from agricultural fertiliser may possibly affect Swan Bay (e.g. seagrass) Medium G8 Increased turbidity from sediments from agriculture may possibly affect Swan Bay (e.g. seagrass) Medium H8 Smothering from sediments from agriculture could possibly affect Swan Bay (e.g. seagrass) Medium K8 Pesticides and herbicides from agriculture could possibly affect Swan Bay (e.g. seagrass) Low N8 Salinity changes caused by agricultural practices relatively minor and unlikely to affect Swan Bay Medium G11 Changes to sediment transport with coastal infrastructure (e.g. marina, ferry terminal) are likely to affect Swan Bay High H11 Changes to sediment transport with coastal infrastructure (e.g. marina, ferry terminal) are likely to affect Swan Bay Medium U11 Changes to waves/currents with coastal development (e.g. marina, ferry terminal) are likely to affect Swan Bay Medium F12 Possible that small amount of nutrients from dredging entrance to creek will have localised effect (e.g. seagrass) Low G12 Suspended sediments entering Swan Bay when dredging entrance almost certain to affect (e.g. seagrass) High H12 Suspended sediments entering Swan Bay when dredging entrance almost certain to affect (e.g. seagrass) Medium J12 Small amount of oil/dispersant released through dredging/port activities could possibly have localised effect on Swan Bay Low U12 Altered wave/currents with dredging the entrance is likely to affect Swan Bay (changes to mud banks etc) Medium J15 No commercial fishing in Swan Bay but oil/dispersant spill possible for commercial vessels in creek High S15 No commercial fishing in Swan Bay but pest translocation by commercial vessels in creek rare occurrence Medium X15 No commercial fishing in Swan Bay but fish caught near entrances Medium J16 Although rare, an oil spill related to ship movements entering/leaving PPB could occur and affect Swan Bay High S16 Although rare, an invasion of a pest released with ballast water from ship movements entering/leaving PPB could occur Medium S18 It is unlikely that pests will be translocated by recreational boats in harbour and Swan Bay Low S20 It is possible that pests could be translocated by recreational fishing activities in Swan Bay Medium X20 It is possible that extraction of fish by recreational fishing activities could affect Swan Bay (e.g. affect fish populations) Low

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Likelihood ratings: 1 = Rare, 2 = Unlikely, 3 = Possible, 4 = Likely, 5 = Almost certain

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B2. Likelihood table for the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP over a 60 year time frame

SWAN BAY LIKELIHOOD stressor

e n l

i s e

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

- - t

s d

t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e on

e e

t i e

m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

t y c

c cti

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ve

i i t e e t s

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y br

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /altered currents

n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a de ex Time frame 60 years FGH I J K L MNO PQRS T UVW XY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 6 stormwater 3 4 3 3 7 forestry 8 agriculture 4 4 3 9 industry non-sewage 10 air quality 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 4 4 4 12 ports / channels / dredging 5 5 3 4 13 marine energy 14 artificial reefs 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 3 1 2 16 shipping 1 1 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 18 tourism / recreation / boating 2 19 aquaculture 20 rec fishing 3 3 21 Climate Change 4 5 4 5 3 4 4

Comments Changes compared to likelihood for 5 year time frame Data quality F8 Likely effect of nutrients from agriculture increasing epiphyte growth over this time frame (e.g. seagrass) Medium G8 Likely effect of suspended sediment related turbidity from agriculture over this time frame (e.g. seagrass) Medium H8 Possible effect of sedimentation from agriculture over this time frame (e.g. seagrass) Low O21 Expected increase in acidiity of seawater over next 60 years Medium P21 Sea level expected to rise significantly over this time frame Medium Q21 UVB levels expected to rise significantly over this time frame Medium R21 Sea temperature expected to rise significantly over this time frame High S21 It is possible that environmetal changes related to climate change will lead to introduction of marine pests Low T21 Increased storm activity under climate change is likely to lead to increased physical disturbance Medium U21 Waves and currents are likely to be affected by changes in wind patterns under climate change Low

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Likelihood ratings: 1 = Rare, 2 = Unlikely, 3 = Possible, 4 = Likely, 5 = Almost certain

226

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B3. Risk table for the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

SWAN BAY RISK stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r ht

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i er

S - - t

s d

e n : t t e l d d at

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r rac

t a s d t s y

d d l i a

l c c

t xt eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /altered currents e d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time frame 5 years SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 stormwater 2 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 7 forestry 0 agriculture 3 3 0 0 0 0 6 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 0 3 0 0 9 ports / channels / dredging 0 3 3 0 2 0 0300 0 11 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 4 shipping 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 3 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 3 0 1 4 climate change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51270500010000 8060020 46

Comments Primarily concerns listed species, migratory birds, Ramsar

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Risk ratings:0 = Negligible, 1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High, 4 = Extreme

227

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B4. Risk table for the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

SWAN BAY RISK stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 stormwater 3 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 10 forestry 0 agriculture 4 4 1 0 0 0 9 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 0 3 0 0 9 ports / channels / dredging 0 3 3 0 2 0 0300 0 11 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 4 shipping 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 3 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 3 0 1 4 climate change 3434233 22 7149050001343410390020 74

Comments Primarily concerns listed species, migratory birds (Ramsar), syngnathids, listed shrimp

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Risk ratings:0 = Negligible, 1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High, 4 = Extreme

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B5. Risk table for the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

SWAN BAY RISK stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r ht

o u p b

s B r

lig

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

C - - t

s d

e ate : t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e io

t m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris ve i v o act

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y

d d l i a tr

l c c

t eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n altered wave / altered currents underwater noise underwater d a A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ex Time frame 5 years SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 stormwater 2 3 2 0 0 0 2 0 9 forestry 0 agriculture 3 3 0 0 0 0 6 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 0 3 0 0 9 ports / channels / dredging 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 9 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 5 shipping 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 3 0 2 5 climate change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51280500020000 8050040 49

Comments Primarily concerns seagrass beds and associated fauna

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Risk ratings:0 = Negligible, 1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High, 4 = Extreme

229

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B6. Risk table for the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

SWAN BAY RISK stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /altered currents noise underwater

A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 stormwater 3 4 2 0 0 0 2 0 11 forestry 0 agriculture 4 4 2 0 0 0 10 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 0 3 0 0 9 ports / channels / dredging 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 9 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 5 shipping 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 3 0 2 5 climate change 4334333 23 7141005000243341138004 0 78

Comments Primarily concerns seagrass beds and associated fauna

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Risk ratings:0 = Negligible, 1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High, 4 = Extreme

230

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B7. Risk table for the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

SWAN BAY RISK stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

y p

o u p b

e gh

s s B r

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

E - - t te

s d

: t t e l d d

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e ion

t m a

d a

r l wa

e e v s s

n p g y

u t y c

c ct

y c e a a p i

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

b ris i v o ve

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y o

d d l i a tra

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h eb

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater d A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ab ex Time frame 5 years SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 stormwater 2 3 1 0 0 0 2 0 8 forestry 0 agriculture 3 3 0 0 0 0 6 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 0 2 0 0 8 ports / channels / dredging 0 3 3 0 1 0 0300 0 10 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 shipping 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 2 0 1 3 climate change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51270400020000 8050020 45

Comments This primarily concerns high primary/secondary productivity - fish nursery area

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Risk ratings:0 = Negligible, 1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High, 4 = Extreme

231

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B8. Risk table for the Swan Bay segment of the Port Phillip Heads MNP for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

SWAN BAY RISK stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave / altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 0 0 0 0 stormwater 3 4 2 0 0 0 2 0 11 forestry 0 agriculture 4 4 2 0 0 0 10 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 0 2 0 0 8 ports / channels / dredging 0 3 3 0 1 0 0300 0 10 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 4 shipping 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 3 0 2 5 climate change 4234333 22 7141004000242341138004 0 76

Comments This primarily concerns high primary/secondary productivity - fish nursery area

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Risk ratings:0 = Negligible, 1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High, 4 = Extreme

232

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

Risk assessment for the Merri MS

B9. Likelihood table for Merri MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

MERRI LIKELIHOOD stressor

e n l

i s e

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

o u p b

s B r

r igh

u m s m u

e V

l & t r l

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

- - t te

s d

t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e

t i e wa

m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

t y c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ris

i i t e e t s

r h

d i d r r rac

t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c eb u e e e i e n a a c e e h xt

n n altered /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater ab d n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p e Time frame 5 years FGH I J K L MNOPQRS TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 3 6 stormwater 3 3 2 3 7 forestry 8 agriculture 3 3 2 9 industry non-sewage 10 air quality 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 3 12 ports / channels / dredging 3 2 13 marine energy 14 artificial reefs 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 2 2 16 shipping 1 1 1 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 3 18 tourism / recreation / boating 2 3 4 19 aquaculture 20 rec fishing 2 2 21 Climate Change

Comments Data quality F5 Possible that urban sewage nutrients could affect macroalgae habitat and dependent species Low F6 Possible that nutrients in stormwater could affect macroalgae habitat and dependent species Low G6 Possible that suspended sediments in stormwater could affect macroalgae habitat (light) and dependent species Low H6 Plausible but unlikely that settled sediments in stormwater could affect macroalgae habitat (light) and dependent species Low W6 Debris in stormwater affecting listed birds is possible Low F8 Nutrients from agricultural fertiliser in catchment may possibly affect algal habitat and dependent species Medium G8 Increased turbidity from sediments from agriculture may possibly affect algal habitat and dependent species Medium H8 Smothering of algae from sediments from agriculture is plausible but unlikely Low G11 Changes to sediment transport with coastal infrastructure may possibly affect light for macroalgae Medium H11 Changes to sediment transport with coastal infrastructure may possibly lead to smothering of macroalgae Low U11 Changes to waves/currents with coastal infrastructure affecting habitats and species is possible Low G12 Sediment plume from artificial estuary opening reducing light for algae is possible Medium H12 Sediment plume from artificial estuary opening smothering algae is plausible but unlikely Low M15 Unlikely but plausible for abalone virus to be translocated by commercial vessels Medium S15 Pest translocation by commercial vessels is plausible but unlikely Medium J16 Although rare, an oil spill related to ship movements in Bass Strait could affect Merri MS Medium M16 Although very rare, the introduction of a new pathogen associated with ships ballast water cannot be ruled out Low S16 Although rare, an invasion of a pest released with ballast water from ship movements in Bass Strait could occur Medium Y17 Possible that seismic testing could affect whales Low M18 Unlikely but plausible for abalone virus to be translocated by recreational/tourism vessels Low S18 Fox and dog predation on penguins, listed birds is possible under current management Medium T18 Disturbance of listed birds, penguins through human recreation is likely to occur Medium M20 Unlikely but plausible for abalone virus to be translocated by recreational vessels Medium S20 Pest translocation by recreational vessels is plausible but unlikely Low

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Likelihood ratings: 1 = Rare, 2 = Unlikely, 3 = Possible, 4 = Likely, 5 = Almost certain

233

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B10. Likelihood table for Merri MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

MERRI LIKELIHOOD stressor

e n l

i s e

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

u m s m u lig

e V

l & t

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

- - t ter

s d

e a t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e

t i e

m a

d a

r l w

e e v s s tio

n p g y

t y c

y c e a a p i

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i ve i v o ac

i i t e e t s

r h

d i d r r

t a s d t s y br

d d l i a tr

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h bo

n n altered wave wave /altered currents underwater noise underwater a de n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ex Time frame 60 years FGH I J K L MNOPQRS TUVW X Y SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 3 6 stormwater 3 3 2 3 7 forestry 8 agriculture 3 3 2 9 industry non-sewage 10 air quality 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 3 12 ports / channels / dredging 3 2 13 marine energy 14 artificial reefs 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 2 2 16 shipping 1 1 1 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 3 18 tourism / recreation / boating 2 3 4 19 aquaculture 20 rec fishing 2 2 21 Climate Change 4 4 4 5 3 4 4

Comments Changes compared to likelihood for 5 year time frame Data quality O21 Expected increase in acidiity of seawater over next 60 years Medium P21 Sea level expected to rise significantly over this time frame Medium Q21 UVB levels expected to rise significantly over this time frame Medium R21 Sea temperature expected to rise significantly over this time frame High S21 It is possible that environmental changes related to climate change will lead to introduction of marine pests Low T21 Increased storm activity under climate change is likely to lead to increased physical disturbance Medium U21 Waves and currents are likely to be affected by changes in wind patterns under climate change Low

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Likelihood ratings: 1 = Rare, 2 = Unlikely, 3 = Possible, 4 = Likely, 5 = Almost certain

234

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B11. Likelihood table for Merri MS for the attributes “Communities/Habitats” and “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

MERRI LIKELIHOOD stressor

e n l

i s e

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

- - t t

s d

t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e

t i e

w i

m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave wave /altered currents noise underwater n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years FGH I J K L MNOPQRS TUVWXY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 3 6 stormwater 3 3 2 3 7 forestry 8 agriculture 3 3 2 9 industry non-sewage 10 air quality 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 3 12 ports / channels / dredging 3 2 13 marine energy 14 artificial reefs 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 2 2 16 shipping 1 1 1 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 2 2 4 19 aquaculture 20 rec fishing 2 2 21 Climate Change

Comments Data quality F5 Possible that urban sewage nutrients could affect macroalgae habitat and dependent species Low F6 Possible that nutrients in stormwater could affect macroalgae habitat and dependent species Low G6 Possible that suspended sediments in stormwater could affect macroalgae habitat (light) and dependent species Low H6 Plausible but unlikely that settled sediments in stormwater could affect macroalgae habitat (light) and dependent species Low W6 Debris in stormwater affecting listed birds is possible Low F8 Nutrients from agricultural fertiliser in catchment may possibly affect algal habitat and dependent species Medium G8 Increased turbidity from sediments from agriculture may possibly affect algal habitat and dependent species Medium H8 Smothering of algae from sediments from agriculture is plausible but unlikely Low G11 Changes to sediment transport with coastal infrastructure may possibly affect light for macroalgae Medium H11 Changes to sediment transport with coastal infrastructure may possibly lead to smothering of macroalgae Low U11 Changes to waves/currents with coastal infrastructure affecting habitats and species is possible Low G12 Sediment plume from artificial estuary opening reducing light for algae is possible Medium H12 Sediment plume from artificial estuary opening smothering algae is plausible but unlikely Low M15 Unlikely but plausible for abalone virus to be translocated by commercial vessels Medium S15 Pest translocation by commercial vessels is plausible but unlikely Medium J16 Although rare, an oil spill related to ship movements in Bass Strait could affect Merri MS Medium M16 Although very rare, the introduction of a new pathogen associated with ships ballast water cannot be ruled out Low S16 Although rare, an invasion of a pest released with ballast water from ship movements in Bass Strait could occur Medium M18 Unlikely but plausible for abalone virus to be translocated by recreational/tourism vessels Low S18 Pest translocation by tourism/recreation vessels is plausible but unlikely Medium T18 Trampling of intertidal algal habitat by human recreation causing a significant effect is likely Medium M20 Unlikely but plausible for abalone virus to be translocated by recreational vessels Medium S20 Pest translocation by recreational vessels is plausible but unlikely Low

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Likelihood ratings: 1 = Rare, 2 = Unlikely, 3 = Possible, 4 = Likely, 5 = Almost certain

235

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B12. Likelihood table for Merri MS for the attributes “Communities/Habitats” and “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

MERRI LIKELIHOOD stressor

e n l

i s e

r r a

e i e

t m t

h b i

t p

o u p b

e gh

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

- - t te

s d

e a t t e l d d n

e l

s n

n n e e

e e

t i e

m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

t y c

y c e a a p i ew

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o ac

i i t e e t s

r h

d i d r r ov t a s d t s y br

d d l i a tr

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h

n n altered wave /wave altered currents underwater noise underwater ab de n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p ex Time frame 60 years FGH I J K L MNOPQRS TUVW XY SOURCES OF THREAT 5 land-based urban sewage 3 6 stormwater 3 3 2 3 7 forestry 8 agriculture 3 3 2 9 industry non-sewage 10 air quality 11 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 3 3 3 12 ports / channels / dredging 3 2 13 marine energy 14 artificial reefs 15 marine sectors commercial fisheries 2 2 16 shipping 1 1 1 17 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 18 tourism / recreation / boating 2 2 4 19 aquaculture 20 rec fishing 2 2 21 Climate Change 4 4 4 5 3 4 4

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Likelihood ratings: 1 = Rare, 2 = Unlikely, 3 = Possible, 4 = Likely, 5 = Almost certain

236

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B13. Risk table for Merri MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 5 year time frame

MERRI RISK stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m

h b i

t p

e r h

i p

o u p b

c a

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

S - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 2 stormwater 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 8 forestry 0 agriculture 2 2 2 0 0 0 6 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 2 0 0 6 ports / channels / dredging 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 shipping 002 2 10000 5 petroleum / minerals exploration 2 2 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 4 3 0 0 0 9 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 2 2 0 0 4 climate change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6880200800000 9320202 50

Comments Based primarily on listed birds, little penguins, seahorses, abalone

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Risk ratings:0 = Negligible, 1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High, 4 = Extreme

237

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B14. Risk table for Merri MS for the attribute “Species/Populations” over a 60 year time frame

MERRI RISK stressor

p g

o e n l

i s e

r r a

P d

e i e

s t m t

h b i

t p

e r

i p

o u p b

e gh

c a

s B r

u m s m u

e V

l & t r li

p s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i

S - - t te

s d

e n : t t e l d d a

e l

s n

n n e e

e e e

t i e

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s tio

n p g y

u t y c

y c e a a p i ew

s i t is

e i o l

m m i i

i v o

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r rac

r br t a s d t s y ov

d d l i a

l c c

t xt u e e e i e n a a c e e h b

n n underwater noise underwater altered wave /altered currents e de A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a Time frame 60 years SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 2 stormwater 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 2 9 forestry 0 agriculture 3 2 2 0 0 0 7 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 3 0 2 0 0 7 ports / channels / dredging 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 shipping 002 2 10000 5 petroleum / minerals exploration 2 2 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 4 3 0 0 0 9 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 2 2 0 0 4 climate change 3434334 24 799020080343412660202 77

Comments Based primarily on listed birds, little penguins, seahorses, abalone

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Risk ratings:0 = Negligible, 1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High, 4 = Extreme

238

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B15. Risk table for Merri MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 5 year time frame

MERRI RISK stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered /wave altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 2 stormwater 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 0 agriculture 3 2 2 0 0 0 7 industry non-sewage 0 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 2 0 0 6 ports / channels / dredging 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 shipping 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 0 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 7 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 2 2 0 0 4 climate change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7880100700000 7320100 44

Comments Based primarily on subtidal macro-algal habitat and diversity

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Risk ratings:0 = Negligible, 1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High, 4 = Extreme

B16. Risk table for Merri MS for the attribute “Communities/Habitats” over a 60 year time frame

239

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

MERRI RISK stressor

e n l

t i s e

i i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

o u p b

s B r

r i

u m s m u

e V

l & t r

s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

C - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 2 stormwater 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 8 forestry 0 agriculture 3 2 2 0 0 0 7 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 0 2 0 2 0 0 4 ports / channels / dredging 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 shipping 001 1 10000 3 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 0 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 7 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 2 2 0 0 4 climate change 3334334 23 778010070333410660100 66

Comments Based primarily on subtidal macro-algal habitat and diversity

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Risk ratings:0 = Negligible, 1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High, 4 = Extreme

240

DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B17. Risk table for Merri MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 5 year time frame

MERRI RISK stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 5 years SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 2 stormwater 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 7 forestry 0 agriculture 3 2 2 0 0 0 7 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 2 0 2 0 0 6 ports / channels / dredging 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 shipping 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 0 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 6 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 2 2 0 0 4 climate change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7880100700000 7220100 43

Comments This primarily concerns breeding and feeding ground for little penguins, shearwaters; productivity of macro-algae

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Risk ratings:0 = Negligible, 1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High, 4 = Extreme

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DEPARTMENT OF ZOOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, TECHNICAL REPORT ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC THREATS TO MARINE PROTECTED AREAS IN VICTORIA

B18. Risk table for Merri MS for the attribute “Ecosystem Function” over a 60 year time frame

MERRI RISK stressor

e n l

i s e

m i

r r a

e i e

t m

h b i

t p

r h

y p

o u p b

s s B r

r i

o u m s m u

e V

l & t r

c s s e

& s

d s

a U t

a i e

E - - t t

s d

: t t e l d d a n

e l

s n

n n e e o

e e e

t i e

w i

t m a

d a

r l

e e v s s t

n p g y

u t y c

c s c

y c e a a p i e

s i t

e i o l

m m i i

i v o v r a

i i t e e t s

i n

r h

d i d r r r

t a s d t s y o b

d d l i a t

l c c

u e e e i e n a a c e e h b e x

n n altered wave /altered currents noise underwater A n s s h o p e p s a s i i p p a d e Time frame 60 years SOURCES OF THREAT land-based urban sewage 2 0 0 2 stormwater 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 8 forestry 0 agriculture 3 2 2 0 0 0 7 industry non-sewage 0 air quality 0 0 0 0 infrastructure coastal infrastructure 2 3 0 2 0 0 7 ports / channels / dredging 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 marine energy 0 artificial reefs 0 marine sectors commercial fisheries 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 shipping 001 1 10000 3 petroleum / minerals exploration 0 0 tourism / recreation / boating 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 6 aquaculture 0 rec fishing 2 2 0 0 4 climate change 3434334 24 799010070343410560100 69

Comments This primarily concerns breeding and feeding ground for little penguins, shearwaters; productivity of macro-algae

Legend Cells shaded in green indicate all possible combinations of source and stressor affecting this asset Risk ratings:0 = Negligible, 1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High, 4 = Extreme

242