Chinese Strategic Intentions: a Deep Dive Into China’S Worldwide Activities

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APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities A Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) White Paper December 2019 Contributing Authors: Mr. Gregory Allen (Center For a New American Security (CNAS)), Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Michael BecKley (TuFts University), Dr. Belinda Bragg (NSI, Inc.), CAPT (ret) L. R. Bremseth (Computer Systems Center Incorporated (CSCI)), Mr. Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Dr. SKye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Dr. Dale Copeland (University of Virginia), Mr. Joseph DeFranco (George Mason University), Dr. David R. Dorondo (Western Carolina University), Prof. Anoush Ehteshami (Durham University), Mr. Daniel J. Flynn (OfFice of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)), Lt. Col. Chistopher D. Forrest (US Air Force HQ AF/A3K (CHECKMATE)), Dr. James Giordano (Georgetown University), Col E. John Gregory (United States Military Academy, West Point), Dr. Robert HincK (Monmouth College), Dr. Maorong Jiang (Creighton University), Dr. Michael Mazarr (RAND), Dr. Eric McGlinchey (George Mason University), Mr. Girish NandaKumar (Old Dominion University), ProF. Cynthia Roberts (Hunter College, City University of New YorK (CUNY) / Columbia University), Mr. John Schurtz (Georgia Tech Research Institute), Dr. Thomas SherlocK (United States Military Academy, West Point), Dr. Robert Spalding III (Hudson Institute), Dr. Cynthia Watson (National Defense University), Dr. Richard Weitz (Center For Political- Military Analysis, Hudson Institute), Dr. Nicholas D. Wright (Intelligent Biology; Georgetown University; University College London; New America) Prefaces Provided By: RDML JefFrey J. Czerewko (Joint StaFF, J39), Dr. Joseph G. D. Babb (US Army Command and General StaFF College) Editor: Ms. Nicole Peterson (NSI, Inc.) Editorial Support: Dr. Sabrina Pagano (NSI, Inc.) The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the ofFicial policy or position of the Department of Defense or the US Government. SMA White Papers and reports can be downloaded from http://nsiteam.com/sma-publications/ APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Disclaimers The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the US Government. Mention of any commercial product in this paper does not imply Department of Defense (DoD) endorsement or recommendation for or against the use of any such product. No infringement on the rights of the holders of the registered trademarks is intended. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States DoD of the linked websites, or the information, products or services contained therein. The DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these locations. TABLE OF CONTENTS Joint Staff Preface iii RDML Jeffrey J. Czerewko (Joint Staff, J39) Opening Remarks v Dr. Joseph G.D. Babb (US Army Command and General Staff College) Executive Summary viii Ms. Nicole Peterson (NSI, Inc.) PART I. CHINESE MOTIVATIONS, ASPIRATIONS, AND STRATEGY 1 Chapter 1. Grappling with the Rise of China: A New Model for Thinking about Sino- 1 American Relations Dr. Dale Copeland (University of Virginia) Chapter 2. Chinese Views of Information and Implications for the United States 7 Mr. Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation) Chapter 3. The Politics of Humiliation as a Driver in China's View of Strategic Competition 17 Dr. Cynthia Watson (National Defense University) Chapter 4. How Does China View Strategic Competition? 22 Dr. Robert Spalding III (Hudson Institute) Chapter 5. China’s Evolving Approach to “Integrated Strategic Deterrence” 26 Mr. Daniel J. Flynn (Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)) Chapter 6. The Chinese Economic Miracle: How Much Is Real… How Much Is a Mirage? 32 Dr. Michael Beckley (Tufts University) Chapter 7. Chinese Strategic Leveraging of Its Media Ecology: Primary Drivers and 38 Narrative Themes within China’s Communication Strategy Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College) and Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University) Chapter 8. How Russia and China View Each Other and America: The Perceptions of 45 Students at Elite Universities Col E. John Gregory (United States Military Academy, West Point) and Dr. Thomas Sherlock (United States Military Academy, West Point) PART II: KEY TECHNICAL ADVANCES AND THEIR LONG-TERM STRATEGIC IMPACT 55 Chapter 9. Dual- and Non-kinetic Use of Chinese Brain Science: Current Activities and 55 Future Implications Dr. James Giordano (Georgetown University), CAPT (ret) L. R. Bremseth (Computer Systems Center Incorporated (CSCI)), and Mr. Joseph DeFranco (George Mason University) Chapter 10. China and Global Blockchains 63 Mr. Girish Nandakumar (Old Dominion University) Chapter 11. China and Artificial Intelligence 69 Mr. Gregory Allen (Center for a New American Security (CNAS)) i Chapter 12. Chinese Military Innovations 74 Mr. John Schurtz (Georgia Tech Research Institute) PART III. DURABILITY OF THE CHINESE REGIME 83 Chapter 13. How Durable May a Digital Authoritarian Regime Be Within China? 83 Dr. Nicholas D. Wright (Intelligent Biology; Georgetown University; University College London; New America) Chapter 14. The Durability of a Digital Authoritarian Model’s Influence Outside China 90 Dr. Nicholas D. Wright (Intelligent Biology; Georgetown University; University College London; New America) PART IV. WHAT OUTREACH ACTIVITIES IS CHINA UNDERTAKING GLOBALLY? 95 Chapter 15. China in Europe 95 Dr. David R. Dorondo (Western Carolina University) Chapter 16. Chinese Relations in Eurasia: The Case of Kazakhstan 101 Dr. Richard Weitz (Center for Political-Military Analysis, Hudson Institute) Chapter 17. China’s Mixed Reception in Central Asia 106 Dr. Eric McGlinchey (George Mason University) Chapter 18. THAAD’s All Folks: How China Turned Deployment of the US System into a Win 114 Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI, Inc.) and Dr. Belinda Bragg (NSI, Inc.) Chapter 19. China in Central, West, and South Asia 121 Prof. Anoush Ehteshami (Durham University) Chapter 20. China’s Creeping Interests in Latin America: Challenging the Monroe Doctrine 127 Dr. Cynthia Watson (National Defense University) PART V. HOW SHOULD THE US, ITS ALLIES, AND ITS PARTNER NATIONS MANAGE THESE CHALLENGES GLOBALLY? 131 Chapter 21. US/China Competition 131 Dr. Michael Mazarr (RAND) Chapter 22. A Flexible Framework to Achieve Strategic Objectives in US-China Policy 139 Dr. Maorong Jiang (Creighton University) Chapter 23. First Principles of Great Power Competition: Avoid Allowing Opponents to 145 “Beat America at Its Own Game”: Ensuring US Financial and Currency Power Prof. Cynthia Roberts (Hunter College, City University of New York (CUNY) / Columbia University) Chapter 24. Refocusing US Capabilities to Compete in the Gray Zone 156 Lt. Col. Christopher D. Forrest (US Air Force HQ AF/A3K (CHECKMATE)) Biographies 160 ii The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the US Government. JOINT STAFF PREFACE RDML Jeffrey J. Czerewko, Joint Staff, J39 The Joint Staff and the United States military adheres to the maxim that effective strategy formulation starts with a proper diagnosis of the environment. This is particularly true when the operational environment has high levels of interactive complexity across various domains. In these settings there are no easy choices but we know from centuries of experience that the best plans are informed by thoughtful, disciplined exploration of ideas and diversity of thought. In pursuit of this axiom, SMA white papers are a concerted effort to harvest the informed opinions of leading experts but do not represent the policies or positions of the U.S. government. Our hope is that the the ideas presented in the pages that follow expand the readers’ strategic horizons and inform better strategic choices. This white paper was prepared in support of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. This effort examines China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and what types of challenges these activities are likely to present. This white paper explores the following key topics: • China’s self-perception and worldview • The strength and durability of China’s economy, as well as China’s global power projection capabilities and aspirations • China’s present and future capabilities, with respect to key technical advances in artificial intelligence (AI), military science and technology (S/T), blockchain, and brain science • The durability of the Chinese regime and, in particular, the sustainability of its emerging brand of digital authoritarianism • China’s interests, strategies, and objectives, as well as the activities that it pursues in order to achieve them • How the West might most effectively manage challenges from China in light of both its strengths and weaknesses This white paper also makes some key observations and recommendations on how to strategically engage with China in order to best address current and long-term Western interests. Within the framework of geopolitical considerations, this work encourages readers to think beyond the traditional “engagement” versus “containment” framework that has dominated the discussions of US- China relations over the past two decades (Copeland). Furthermore, this white paper argues that understanding
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