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English, and Distinguishing Speaking, Reading, and Writing, but Not Specifying ‘Reading a Letter’ As in the TLSLS) Report No: AUS0000624 . Timor-Leste Public Disclosure Authorized Timor-Leste Poverty Developing Timor-Leste Gender-Disaggregated Poverty Small Area Estimates Public Disclosure Authorized Technical Report . May 2019 Public Disclosure Authorized . POV . Public Disclosure Authorized © 2019 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2019. DEVELOPING TIMOR-LESTE GENDER- DISAGGREGATED POVERTY SMALL AREA ESTIMATES – TECHNICAL REPORT. © World Bank.” All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... ii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... iv ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................................ vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................... vii 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 2. Overview of the methodology .......................................................................................... 2 3. Data .................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1 The Census ................................................................................................................. 5 3.2 The Timor Leste Survey of Living Standards ............................................................ 6 3.2 The Poverty Line............................................................................................................ 7 4. Empirical Analysis ............................................................................................................ 7 4.1 Comparing the Questionnaires ................................................................................... 7 4.2 Comparing the Variables ............................................................................................ 9 4.3 Variable Selection for Poverty Mapping Models ..................................................... 10 5. Simulation and Poverty Mapping Results ....................................................................... 11 5.1 Cross-validation with Other Welfare Indicators ...................................................... 11 5.2 Suco-Level Poverty Estimates ................................................................................. 13 6. Poverty and Gender ......................................................................................................... 20 7. Disaggregated Evidence for other Gender-Related Indicators ........................................ 24 Education ......................................................................................................................... 26 Health............................................................................................................................... 29 Labour Force .................................................................................................................... 33 8. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 40 References ............................................................................................................................... 43 Annex - Suco Level Maps (Full Page Version) ...................................................................... 87 i List of Figures Figure 1: Illuminated Areas in Timor Leste, 2013 DMSP Satellite F18 (using 5% Luminosity Threshold to restrict to non-ephemeral lit areas) ............................... 13 Figure 2: National-level Poverty Mapping Model Estimation ............................................... 14 Figure 3: National Model Estimation ..................................................................................... 16 Figure 4: Rural Sector Poverty Mapping Model estimation ................................................... 18 Figure 5: Urban Sector Poverty Mapping Model estimation .................................................. 19 Figure 6: Suco-Level Mean Differences of People in Male-Headed vs Female-Headed Households ............................................................................................................ 22 Figure 7: Suco-Level Relative Differences of People in Male-Headed vs Female-Headed Households ............................................................................................................ 23 Figure 8: Proportion of the Population in Households Where the Index of Male-Female Education Gaps Indicates Female Disadvantage .................................................. 27 Figure 9: Relationship Between Gender Education Disadvantage and Suco-Level Mean Consumption ......................................................................................................... 27 Figure 10: Comparison Between Direct Estimates from the Census and Survey-to-Census Imputed Values, in terms of the Proportion of the Population in Households, Where the Index of Male-Female Education Gaps Indicates Female Disadvantage ......................................................................................................... 29 Figure 11: Proportion of the Population in Households, Where the Index of Male-Female Health Gaps Indicates Female Disadvantage ........................................................ 31 Figure 12: Relationship Between Gender Health and Suco-Level Mean Consumption ........ 31 Figure 13: Proportion of the Population in Households Where the Index of Male-Female Labour Force Gaps Indicates Female Disadvantage ............................................. 35 Figure 14: Relationship Between Labour Force Disadvantage and Suco-Level Mean Consumption ......................................................................................................... 35 Figure 15: Proportion of the Population in Households, Where the Index of Female Decision Making (DM) Autonomy Indicates Female Disadvantage .................... 38 Figure 16: Proportion of the Population in Households Where the Index of Female Experience of Types of Domestic Violence (DV) Indicates Female Disadvantage ......................................................................................................... 39 ii Figure 17: Relationship Between Share of Population Living in Households With High Domestic Violence Index and Average Predicted Headcount Poverty Rate by Suco....................................................................................................................... 39 Figure 18: Suco Average of the Predicted Number of Types of Domestic Violence (DV) Reported by Females............................................................................................. 40 Figure 19: Suco-Level Estimates of Poverty Rate and 95% CI .............................................. 84 Figure 20: Suco-Level Estimates of Labor Force Index and 95% CI ..................................... 84 Figure 21. Suco-Level Estimates of Health Index and 95% CI .............................................. 85 Figure 22. Suco-Level Estimates of Education Index and 95% CI ........................................ 85 Figure 23. Suco-Level Estimats of Decision-Making Autonomy (DM) Index and 95% CI .. 86 Figure 24. Suco-Level Estimates of Domestic Violence (DV) Index and 95% CI ................ 86 iii List of Tables Table 1: Comparison between Census and TL SLS (Wall Material and Drinking Water Examples) ...............................................................................................................8 Table 2: Summary Details for Beta and Alpha Models .........................................................11 Table 3: Summary Details for Beta and Alpha Models of Gender-Related Indicators in TLSLS .....................................................................................................................33 Table 4: Summary Details for Beta and Alpha Models of Power and Agency Indicators in 2016 DHS................................................................................................................37 Table 5: Comparison of Census and TLSLS Variables
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