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Developing New Future Scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen

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Developing New Future Scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen Developing New Future Scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard’s Evergreen Strategic Foresight Program ABBIE TINGSTAD, MICHAEL T. WILSON, KATHERINE ANANIA, JORDAN R. FISCHBACH, SUSAN A. RESETAR, SCOTT SAVITZ, KRISTIN VAN ABEL, R. J. BRIGGS, AARON C. DAVENPORT, STEPHANIE PEZARD, KRISTIN SEREYKO, JONATHAN THEEL, MARC THIBAULT, EDWARD ULIN HS AC HOMELAND SECURITY OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS CENTER An FFRDC operated by the RAND Corporation under contract with DHS Published in 2020 Preface This report documents support by Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) to the U.S. Coast Guard’s Evergreen strategic foresight activity. The objective was to help develop scenarios that postured Evergreen to better bridge the gap between future challenges and near-term plans, which typically focus on the urgent needs of the present. HSOAC analysts reviewed prior Evergreen activities, examined Coast Guard strategy-making and planning processes, adapted an approach for developing scenarios, and narrated a set of exemplar global planning scenarios. Although the scenario development process and resulting example scenarios focused on a Coast Guard planning context, the approach and considerations described in this report might be useful to other organizations with long-range planning needs. This research was sponsored by the Coast Guard Office of Emerging Policy and conducted within the Strategy, Policy, and Operations Program of the HSOAC federally funded research and development center (FFRDC). About the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center The Homeland Security Act of 2002 (Section 305 of Public Law 107-296, as codified at 6 U.S.C. § 185), authorizes the Secretary of Homeland Security, acting through the Under Secretary for Science and Technology, to establish one or more FFRDCs to provide independent analysis of homeland security issues. The RAND Corporation operates HSOAC as an FFRDC for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) under contract HSHQDC-16-D-00007. The HSOAC FFRDC provides the government with independent and objective analyses and advice in core areas important to the department in support of policy development, decisionmaking, alternative approaches, and new ideas on issues of significance. The HSOAC FFRDC also works with and supports other federal, state, local, tribal, and public- and private- sector organizations that make up the homeland security enterprise. The HSOAC FFRDC’s research is undertaken by mutual consent with DHS and is organized as a set of discrete tasks. This report presents the results of research and analysis conducted under task order 70Z02318FM7P03200, Evergreen V. The results presented in this report do not necessarily reflect official DHS opinion or policy. For more information on HSOAC, see www.rand.org/hsoac. For more information on this publication, see www.rand.org/t/RR3147. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................. v Tables ............................................................................................................................................. vi Summary ....................................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ xvi Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. xvii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Evergreen and the Importance of Strategic Foresight for the Coast Guard .............................................. 2 Research Purpose, Approach, and Organization of This Report .............................................................. 4 2. Insights from Evergreen’s History and Relationship with Coast Guard Strategic Planning ...... 7 Lessons from Project Evergreen’s History ............................................................................................... 7 A Brief Overview of Coast Guard Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution and the Strategic Library .............................................................................................................................. 17 3. A Framework for Organizing Mission-Relevant Drivers of Change ........................................ 23 A Decision Context for Scenarios .......................................................................................................... 23 The Stressors-and-Shocks Framework ................................................................................................... 24 Mapping Stressors and Shocks to Coast Guard Decisions ..................................................................... 28 4. Shaping Global Planning Scenarios for Evergreen Analysis .................................................... 34 Our Overarching Scenario Development Approach ............................................................................... 34 Stressor-Based Scenario Families .......................................................................................................... 37 Common Resource Allocation and Distribution Considerations ........................................................... 59 5. Findings and Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 64 A Review of Our Findings ...................................................................................................................... 65 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 66 Appendix A. Full-Length Exemplar Scenario Narratives Used as the Basis for Evergreen Activities in Fiscal Years 2019 and 2020 ............................................................................... 67 Appendix B. An Expert Workshop to Identify Important Drivers for the Coast Guard ............. 100 References ................................................................................................................................... 117 iv Figures Figure S.1. Simplified Evergreen Logic Model ............................................................................. ix Figure S.2. The Coast Guard’s Strategic Framework ................................................................... xii Figure 2.1. Simplified Evergreen Logic Model .............................................................................. 9 Figure 2.2. Simplified Overview of the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution Process in the Coast Guard ................................................................................................... 18 Figure 3.1. The Coast Guard Strategic Framework ...................................................................... 24 Figure 3.2. Stressors-and-Shocks Framework Steps ..................................................................... 26 Figure 3.3. Notional Causal Chain from Drivers to Effect on Coast Guard Missions ................. 27 Figure 4.1. An Example of the Workforce Scenario Family in a Multidimensional Uncertainty Space ................................................................................................................. 39 Figure 4.2. The Workforce Scenario Family ................................................................................ 41 Figure 4.3. Space Weather’s Potential Effects on Technological Infrastructure .......................... 46 Figure 4.4. Map of Past Outbreaks of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus ............. 49 Figure 4.5. Map of Past Ebola Outbreaks ..................................................................................... 49 Figure 4.6. The Asset Scenario Family ......................................................................................... 51 Figure 4.7. A Map of Arctic Ocean Shipping Routes ................................................................... 57 Figure 4.8. A Map of a Catastrophic Earthquake in Central Mexico ........................................... 58 Figure 4.9. Potential Resource Allocation and Distribution Worlds ............................................ 60 Figure 4.10. Requested Coast Guard Budget Changes from the Previous Financial Year, by Statutory Mission, in Millions of 2019 Dollars .................................................................... 62 Figure B.1. Driver Advocacy Game Facilitation Worksheet ...................................................... 102 Figure B.2. The Future Shock Game Point Allocation Worksheet ............................................. 106 v Tables Table S.1. Lessons from Evergreen’s History ................................................................................ x Table S.2. A Summary of Example Evergreen Scenarios ........................................................... xiv Table 1.1. Information Inputs to Evergreen Scenarios ................................................................... 5 Table 2.1. Lessons from Evergreen’s History .............................................................................. 10 Table
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