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Panorama Geopolítico De Los Conflictos 2011 Panorama De Los Conflictos 2011 MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA CUADERNOS DE ESTRATEGIA PANORAMA GEOPOLÍTICO PANORAMA GEOPOLÍTICO DE LOS CONFLICTOS 2011 PANORAMA DE LOS CONFLICTOS 2011 ISBN 978-84-9781-701-1 INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS 9 7 8 8 4 9 7 8 1 7 0 1 1 2011 MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA PANORAMA GEOPOLÍTICO DE LOS CONFLICTOS 2011 INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS CATÁLOGO GENERAL DE PUBLICACIONES OFICIALES http://publicacionesoficiales.boe.es Edita: NIPO: 075-11-259-2 (edición en papel) NIPO: 075-11-258-7 (edición en línea) ISBN: 978-84-9781-701-1 Depósito Legal: M-47572-2011 Imprime: Imprenta del Ministerio de Defensa Tirada: 1.500 ejemplares Fecha de edición: noviembre 2011 En esta edición se ha utilizado papel libre de cloro obtenido a partir de bosques gestionados de forma sostenible certificada. INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE MINISTERIO ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS DE DEFENSA PANORAMA GEOPOLÍTICO DE LOS CONFLICTOS 2011 Las ideas contenidas en este trabajo son de responsabilidad de sus autores, sin que reflejen, necesariamente, el pensamiento del IEEE, que patrocina su publicación SUMARIO INTRODUCCIÓN Autor: Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín Capítulo I LIBIA: GUERRA CIVIL E INTERVENCIÓN EXTRANJERA Autor: Carlos Echeverría Jesús Capítulo II KOSOVO: UN CONFLICTO EN EL CORAZÓN DE EUROPA. ¿PRECEDENTE O CASO ESPECIAL? Autora: Blanca Palacián de Inza Capítulo III ORIENTE PRÓXIMO: CAMBIO SIN RETORNO 7 Autor: Mario Ángel Laborie Iglesias Capítulo IV EL GRAN CÁUCASO: NAGORNO-KARABAJ Autor: Francisco José Ruiz González Capítulo V SUDÁN DEL SUR: LAS INCERTIDUMBRES DE UN NUEVO ESTADO Autor: Pedro Baños Bajo Capítulo VI SOMALIA: EL PARADIGMA DEL ESTADO FALLIDO Autor: Joaquín Castellón Moreno Capítulo VII AFGANISTÁN: EL PRINCIPIO DEL FIN Autor: Francisco José Berenguer Hernández Capítulo VIII SUBCONTINENTE INDIO: EL LARGO CONFLICTO DE CACHEMIRA Autora: María José Caro Bejarano Capítulo IX COLOMBIA: ALIANZAS DISUASORIAS PARA UNA NUEVA ESTRATEGIA CONTRA LA GUERRILLA Autor: Jorge Bolaños Martínez Capítulo X MÉXICO Y EL NARCOTRÁFICO Autor: Miguel Ángel Serrano Monteavaro Capítulo XI SUDESTE ASIÁTICO: NACIONALISMO E INSURGENCIA EN TAILANDIA Y FILIPINAS Autora: María del Mar Hidalgo García Capítulo XII COREA: EL SUEÑO DE UNA PENÍNSULA REUNIFICADA Y DESNUCLEARIZADA Autor: Ignacio José García Sánchez 8 INTRODUCCIÓN Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín Introducción ■ INTRODUCCIÓN Maquiavelo, en sus discursos de Tito Livio, decía que la guerra es un fenómeno que ha acompañado al hombre a lo largo de la historia y que ha ido evolucio- nando con él. Sin embargo, en los medios de comunicación la palabra guerra está siendo desplazada por la palabra «conflicto». Las razones son varias, la primera es porque la mayor cultura de los pueblos hace que la guerra, aunque en ocasiones inevitable, se muestre como una aberración de las sociedades; la segunda es porque la Carta de las Naciones Unidas tal y como establece en su preámbulo «Nosotros los pueblos de las Naciones Unidas resueltos a preservar a las generaciones venideras del flagelo de la guerra», prohíbe la amenaza o el uso de la fuerza, excepto en caso de legítima defensa individual o colectiva(1). Sin embargo, la ausencia de guerra es compatible con la ausencia de paz y es que la animadversión por la guerra no ha sido suficiente motivación para superar pacíficamente las controversias que con frecuencia conducen inevita- blemente al conflicto, a veces de carácter bélico, aunque no se utilice la palabra guerra para referirse a él. El Diccionario de la Lengua Española dice que conflicto procede del latín conflictus y significa combate, lucha, pelea e incluso enfrentamiento armado. 11 Lewis Coser definía el conflicto como «la lucha por los valores, el «status», el poder y los recursos escasos, en el curso de la cual, los oponentes desean neu- tralizar, dañar o eliminar a sus rivales». La neutralización no necesariamente implica el uso directo de la violencia, por lo que para este autor el concepto de conflicto es tan amplio que abarca desde las guerras clásicas, hasta las revolu- ciones, como las que viven actualmente Túnez o Egipto. Hay que recordar que independientemente de cuál sea la denominación que se emplee y quienes sean sus protagonistas. Todos los conflictos están sometidos al Derecho de la Guerra. Esta visión amplia del conflicto aconseja su clasificación, que puede abordarse atendiendo a su extensión o a los medios y procedimientos que se emplean o a las causas que lo motivan. Por los medios y procedimientos que se emplean, los conflictos se pueden clasificar en nucleares, convencionales, asimétricos, subversivos o revolucio- narios. Por su extensión geográfica, los conflictos se pueden clasificar en locales cuan- do se circunscriben a una parte de un país; nacionales cuando afectan a una gran parte del territorio soberano de un Estado; regionales, cuando afectan a (1) Carta de las Naciones Unidas, San Francisco, 26 de junio de 1945, Artículos 2.4 y 51. Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín Introducción varios países de una región geopolítica, como ocurre con el conflicto palestino israelí y por último globales, cuando afectan a múltiples regiones geopolíticas, como es el caso del terrorismo de Al-Qaeda. El Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos, hace años, tipificó las causas de los conflictos en tres niveles: causas profundas o permanentes, causas medias o coyunturales y causas superficiales o de querella. Las causas profundas o permanentes son las rivalidades históricas, ideológicas y religiosas; los enfrentamientos étnicos, por posesiones geográficas de valor estratégico, etc. Las causas medias o de coyuntura, que se agrupan en las circunstancias exter- nas o internas de orden político, como la debilidad del sistema político o de las instituciones, que producen Estados débiles, que favorecen la aparición de ac- tores no Estales, que mediante el uso de la violencia son causa de inseguridad, donde el Estado de Derecho queda gravemente dañado. Las causas superficiales o de querella, que afectan a la esfera geográfica, como los incidentes fronterizos; los de la esfera política, derivados de las estructuras político-constitucionales, orden público, política exterior, etc.; los que afectan 12 a la esfera económica, como son las disputas de carácter económico, industrial, etc.; los que afectan a las fuerzas armadas, como es el crecimiento injustificado del crecimiento del poder militar; y por último las que se derivan de la perso- nalidad de algunos líderes de gobierno. Max Weber consideraba que el conflicto tenía su origen en el antagonismo de los valores que se combaten sin piedad en el mundo moderno a lo largo de una lucha interminable. Carlos Marx, en cambio, consideraba que la principal causa de la conflictividad tiene su origen en la injusticia que se produce en la división del trabajo. Durkheim consideraba que los conflic- tos son anomalías que se producen en el difícil camino hacia el orden y el progreso. Desde el comienzo de la sociología como disciplina científica a finales del siglo XIX, la mayoría de los sociólogos consideran el conflicto como un elemento inherente a las sociedades, al igual que el entendimiento y el compromiso. Cuando las partes en conflicto disponen de armas y estas juegan un papel en el mismo lo denominamos armado, que alcanza el grado de bélico con el uso de esas armas en forma de combates. El conflicto armado implica la participación de grupos armados, aunque no lleguen a hacer uso de las armas, mientras que el conflicto bélico supone el enfrentamiento militar entre los adversarios. Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín Introducción La Institución encargada de procurar evitar y resolver los conflictos es la Orga- nización de Naciones Unidas, a través de su Consejo de Seguridad, que se ha llegado aprobar más de 2.000 resoluciones para tratar de establecer situaciones de paz y estabilidad. Uno de sus principales instrumentos para la implemen- tación de estas resoluciones han sido los denominados Cascos Azules que han intervenido en 67 misiones de paz. A los conflictos donde se han enviado cascos azules hay que añadir otros mu- chos en los que la misión de su estabilización se ha responsabilizado a otras organizaciones internacionales como la OTAN, la UE, la OSCE o la Unión Africana. Muchos se han ido resolviendo con soluciones definitivas aceptadas por todas las partes mientras otros permanecen en calma pero sin resolver las controversias de fondo. Desde su creación en 1945 hasta la Caída del Muro de Berlín en 1989 (44 años), el Consejo de Seguridad aprobó 644 resoluciones y desde entonces, en los 20 años que han trascurrido el número de resoluciones aprobadas ha sido de 1.366. Esto nos indica las dificultades de establecer acuerdos entre los miembros permanentes durante la Guerra Fría. A pesar de esta mayor actividad del Consejo, que se ha traducido en un menor número de conflictos abiertos, todavía siguen siendo demasiados los que no han encontrado una resolución definitiva. En la figura 1.1 podemos observar las tendencias de los conflictos 13 armados desde la creación de Naciones unidas hasta el año 2009. En la actualidad Naciones Unidas tiene abiertas 19 misiones en zona de con- flicto, la OSCE, por su parte, está en cinco países donde hay conflictos latentes. La OTAN, además, mantiene tropas en Afganistán, Kosovo, en el golfo de Adén y en el Mediterráneo (Operación Active Endeavour), sin olvidar la ope- ración de monitorización y entrenamiento de las fuerzas iraquíes. Por su parte, la Unión Europea está en Bosnia-Herzegovina, en la cuenca somalí (Operación Atalanta) y en Uganda, preparando a las tropas somalíes. Si a estas operaciones le añadimos otras de coaliciones lideradas por Estados Unidos y otro tipo de coaliciones, el número de operaciones de paz a cargo de la comunidad inter- nacional asciende a 50, que en algunos casos son coincidentes en los mismos conflictos. El número de conflictos que cuentan con algún tipo de operaciones de paz a cargo de la comunidad internacional es de 30.
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