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Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis Volume 6, Issue 1 Jan/Feb 2014
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis Volume 6, Issue 1 Jan/Feb 2014 Annual Threat Assessment SOUTHEAST ASIA Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore SOUTH ASIA Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA China and Central Asia MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Egypt, Libya and Somalia INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM RESEARCH S. RAJARATNAM SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY 2 ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT Terrorism and Political Violence in 2013 Southeast Asia peace talks were held in January 2014. Iraq, too, remains besieged by sectarian violence and constant attacks. In Yemen, Southeast Asia has seen some of its insurgencies and conflicts multiple insurgencies and a robust threat from Al Qaeda in the diminish while others have continued unabated. In Thailand, the Arabian Peninsula have hampered an already difficult political restive south continued to see violence in 2013 while Bangkok transition. In Egypt, Morsi’s ouster has seen protests continuing witnessed a political crisis with protests against the government to plague the country while the military attempts another turning violent. In Myanmar, reforms have moved forward but political transition. Libya, meanwhile, faces a persistent security communal violence continues to plague the country and has challenge in its southern border region and the success of its evolved from targeting Rohingyas towards Muslim minority transition after Gaddafi will depend on the militias which communities in general. Indonesia continues to face a potent deposed the former dictator giving up their arms. In Somalia, threat from radicalization and concern has emerged over the al-Shabaab has intensified its campaign against the role its “hard” counterterrorist approach is playing in fueling government in the wake of a hardline faction emerging further extremism. -
The Jihadi Industry: Assessing the Organizational, Leadership And
The Jihadi Industry: Assessing the Organizational, Leadership, and Cyber Profiles Report to the Office of University Programs, Science and Technology Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security July 2017 National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Center of Excellence Led by the University of Maryland 8400 Baltimore Ave., Suite 250 • College Park, MD 20742 • 301.405.6600 www.start.umd.edu National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Center of Excellence About This Report The authors of this report are Gina Ligon, Michael Logan, Margeret Hall, Douglas C. Derrick, Julia Fuller, and Sam Church at the University of Nebraska, Omaha. Questions about this report should be directed to Dr. Gina Ligon at [email protected]. This report is part of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) project, “The Jihadi Industry: Assessing the Organizational, Leadership, and Cyber Profiles” led by Principal Investigator Gina Ligon. This research was supported by the Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate’s Office of University Programs through Award Number #2012-ST-061-CS0001, Center for the Study of Terrorism and Behavior (CSTAB 1.12) made to START to investigate the role of social, behavioral, cultural, and economic factors on radicalization and violent extremism. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. -
11 July 2006 Mumbai Train Bombings
11 July 2006 Mumbai train bombings July 2006 Mumbai train bombings One of the bomb-damaged coaches Location Mumbai, India Target(s) Mumbai Suburban Railway Date 11 July 2006 18:24 – 18:35 (UTC+5.5) Attack Type Bombings Fatalities 209 Injuries 714 Perpetrator(s) Terrorist outfits—Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT; These are alleged perperators as legal proceedings have not yet taken place.) Map showing the 'Western line' and blast locations. The 11 July 2006 Mumbai train bombings were a series of seven bomb blasts that took place over a period of 11 minutes on the Suburban Railway in Mumbai (formerly known as Bombay), capital city of the Indian state of Maharashtra and India's financial capital. 209 people lost their lives and over 700 were injured in the attacks. Details The bombs were placed on trains plying on the western line of the suburban ("local") train network, which forms the backbone of the city's transport network. The first blast reportedly took place at 18:24 IST (12:54 UTC), and the explosions continued for approximately eleven minutes, until 18:35, during the after-work rush hour. All the bombs had been placed in the first-class "general" compartments (some compartments are reserved for women, called "ladies" compartments) of several trains running from Churchgate, the city-centre end of the western railway line, to the western suburbs of the city. They exploded at or in the near vicinity of the suburban railway stations of Matunga Road, Mahim, Bandra, Khar Road, Jogeshwari, Bhayandar and Borivali. -
Policy Briefing
Policy Briefing Asia Briefing N°83 Jakarta/Brussels, 23 October 2008 The Philippines: The Collapse of Peace in Mindanao Once the injunction was granted, the president and her I. OVERVIEW advisers announced the dissolution of the government negotiating team and stated they would not sign the On 14 October 2008 the Supreme Court of the Philip- MOA in any form. Instead they would consult directly pines declared a draft agreement between the Moro with affected communities and implied they would Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Philippines only resume negotiations if the MILF first disarmed. government unconstitutional, effectively ending any hope of peacefully resolving the 30-year conflict in In the past when talks broke down, as they did many Mindanao while President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo times, negotiations always picked up from where they remains in office. The Memorandum of Agreement on left off, in part because the subjects being discussed Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD or MOA), the culmination were not particularly controversial or critical details of eleven years’ negotiation, was originally scheduled were not spelled out. This time the collapse, followed to have been signed in Kuala Lumpur on 5 August. At by a scathing Supreme Court ruling calling the MOA the last minute, in response to petitions from local offi- the product of a capricious and despotic process, will cials who said they had not been consulted about the be much harder to reverse. contents, the court issued a temporary restraining order, preventing the signing. That injunction in turn led to While the army pursues military operations against renewed fighting that by mid-October had displaced three “renegade” MILF commanders – Ameril Umbra some 390,000. -
March 2011 Trends April 2011 Watchlist Crisiswatch
1 April 2011, No92 Board of Trustees Co-Chairs CrisisWatch: Christopher Patten summarises briefly developments during the previous month in some 70 situations of current or potential Thomas Pickering conflict, listed alphabetically by region, providing references and links to more detailed information sources (all references mentioned are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin); President and CEO assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, Louise Arbour significantly improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged; Executive Committee alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there is a particular risk of new or significantly esca- Morton Abramowitz lated conflict, or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in some instances there may in fact be Cheryl Carolus both); and Maria Livanos Cattaui summarises Crisis Group’s reports and briefing papers that have been published in the last month. Yoichi Funabashi Frank Giustra CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Group’s Brussels Research Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the Ghassan Salamé resources of our some 130 staff members across five continents, who already report on some 60 of the situations George Soros listed here. Comments and suggestions can be sent to [email protected]. Pär Stenbäck Adnan Abu-Odeh To search past issues of CrisisWatch visit our databases and resources page at www.crisisgroup.org. Kenneth Adelman Kofi Annan Nahum Barnea -
The Abu Sayyaf Group a Terrorist Criminal Enterprisei
The Abu Sayyaf Group A Terrorist Criminal Enterprisei Richard T. Oakley Richard T. Oakley will complete his master’s degree in Security Policy Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University in May 2018. He is specializing in transnational security issues and cybersecurity policy. Rich served in the U.S. military as an Army Special Forces Officer (Green Beret), held various command and staff positions at the tactical through strategic levels, and deployed to Afghanistan and the Asia-Pacific region. Since leaving the military, he has continued to serve as a civilian supporting the defense and intelligence communities. Mr. Oakley is a recognized expert on irregular warfare and special operations; he is an instructor in these and related areas for the U.S. Government, and is a guest lecturer at the NATO School. He received his bachelor’s degree from East Tennessee State University. Author’s Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Department of Defense, or the United States Government. ABSTRACT This paper explores a new model—the terrorist criminal enterprise—for assessing the convergence of terrorism and organized crime in illicit networks, and examines some of the policy implications of utilizing that model to address this phenomenon. Since 2001, several other models have promulgated theories on this observed trend. Some of the prevailing theories are discussed alongside the terrorist criminal enterprise model. The paper analyzes the case of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines, a resilient security threat in Southeast Asia, in terms of this new model. -
Digest of Terrorist Cases
back to navigation page Vienna International Centre, PO Box 500, 1400 Vienna, Austria Tel.: (+43-1) 26060-0, Fax: (+43-1) 26060-5866, www.unodc.org Digest of Terrorist Cases United Nations publication Printed in Austria *0986635*V.09-86635—March 2010—500 UNITED NATIONS OFFICE ON DRUGS AND CRIME Vienna Digest of Terrorist Cases UNITED NATIONS New York, 2010 This publication is dedicated to victims of terrorist acts worldwide © United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, January 2010. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This publication has not been formally edited. Publishing production: UNOV/DM/CMS/EPLS/Electronic Publishing Unit. “Terrorists may exploit vulnerabilities and grievances to breed extremism at the local level, but they can quickly connect with others at the international level. Similarly, the struggle against terrorism requires us to share experiences and best practices at the global level.” “The UN system has a vital contribution to make in all the relevant areas— from promoting the rule of law and effective criminal justice systems to ensuring countries have the means to counter the financing of terrorism; from strengthening capacity to prevent nuclear, biological, chemical, or radiological materials from falling into the -
Routledge Handbook of U.S. Counterterrorism and Irregular
‘A unique, exceptional volume of compelling, thoughtful, and informative essays on the subjects of irregular warfare, counter-insurgency, and counter-terrorism – endeavors that will, unfortunately, continue to be unavoidable and necessary, even as the U.S. and our allies and partners shift our focus to Asia and the Pacific in an era of renewed great power rivalries. The co-editors – the late Michael Sheehan, a brilliant comrade in uniform and beyond, Liam Collins, one of America’s most talented and accomplished special operators and scholars on these subjects, and Erich Marquardt, the founding editor of the CTC Sentinel – have done a masterful job of assembling the works of the best and brightest on these subjects – subjects that will continue to demand our attention, resources, and commitment.’ General (ret.) David Petraeus, former Commander of the Surge in Afghanistan, U.S. Central Command, and Coalition Forces in Afghanistan and former Director of the CIA ‘Terrorism will continue to be a featured security challenge for the foreseeable future. We need to be careful about losing the intellectual and practical expertise hard-won over the last twenty years. This handbook, the brainchild of my late friend and longtime counter-terrorism expert Michael Sheehan, is an extraordinary resource for future policymakers and CT practitioners who will grapple with the evolving terrorism threat.’ General (ret.) Joseph Votel, former commander of US Special Operations Command and US Central Command ‘This volume will be essential reading for a new generation of practitioners and scholars. Providing vibrant first-hand accounts from experts in counterterrorism and irregular warfare, from 9/11 until the present, this book presents a blueprint of recent efforts and impending challenges. -
The Philippines: Back to the Table, Warily, in Mindanao
Update Briefing Asia Briefing N°119 Jakarta/Brussels, 24 March 2011 The Philippines: Back to the Table, Warily, in Mindanao its founding is also used as ammunition by critics to argue I. OVERVIEW against any plan that would result in an expansion of its powers or territorial reach. Peace talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) are back on track, The Aquino government has not made its negotiating with one round of talks in Kuala Lumpur in February stance public, but it seems to accept in principle the idea 2011 and another scheduled for late April. The obstacles of a sub-state as long as its territory is contiguous; the de- to achieving a final peace are huge, but the administration tails will be the hard part. It also understands the need for of President Benigno S. “Noynoy” Aquino III has at least consultations with and buy-in from potential opponents brought some fresh air to the process. A new government and is determined to avoid the pitfalls that led to the 2008 peace panel seems determined to find a way out of a ne- breakdown of negotiations. gotiator’s nightmare: multiple parties engaged in parallel and sometimes contradictory talks; powerful potential The talks would be difficult enough if this were all the spoilers; and ethnic divisions, feuding clans and divergent negotiators had to contend with, but there are other com- political interests among the Bangsamoro – the Muslims plications. Government unhappiness with the Malaysian of Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago – that make unity facilitator, Datuk Othman Abdul Razak, delayed resump- within the MILF’s own constituency elusive. -
Foreign Military Studies Office
community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/ Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 7 Issue #10 OEWATCH November 2017 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT ZAPADVIEWS FROM THE RUSSIA, “ZAPAD”NEIGHBORHOOD MILITARY EXERCISE 31 Iran Questions the Nuclear Deal as North Korea ASIA-PACIFIC 3 A Russian Critique of “Zapad” Defies the West 50 The Hulunhu: Another Step Forward for China’s Global 4 Polish Views of “Zapad” 32 Iran Sends University Instructors to the ‘Resistance Military Expansion 5 Kazakhstan’s Parallel Military Exercise Front’ 51 China Casts a Heavy Hand in Exploration of Oil and Gas 7 Russia Takes Note of Conflicting Kazakh Exercise 33 Iranian General: Iraqi Kurdish Referendum is Part of 52 PLA Attempts to Attract Higher-Quality Recruits 9 Telephone Threats US Plot 53 China: The J-20 Enters Official Military Service 10 China: Not So Concerned with “Zapad” 54 China and Russia Donating Arms to the Philippine 11 Turkish Perspectives on “Zapad” AFRICA Military 13 It Wasn’t “Zapad” and It Wasn’t Coincidental 34 North Korea’s African Ties 55 China Supports Duterte’s Drug War 14 The Aerospace Troops Get a Ground Forces 35 Somalia’s Plea for Heavy Weapons 56 ISIS Exploiting Crisis in Myanmar Commander 36 Somalia: Drought Benefits al-Shabaab 57 The Maute Group in Mindanao: Who They Are and How 16 The Future Looking Bright for the Russian Aerospace 37 The Paradox of Increasing Democracy and They Operate Forces Decreasing Stability 58 New Group Presents Twist in Marawi Violence 17 Russia Trying to Increase the Number of Electro- 38 Counterproductive Police Practices in Africa 59 Indonesian Foreign Fighters Return Home for Optical Satellites 39 Lassa Fever: West Africa’s Next Massive Epidemic? Assassination Missions 18 Russia’s Counter to the “High Frequency Global 40 An ISIS Faction in Africa.. -
The Sources of the Abu Sayyaf's Resilience in the Southern
MAY 2010 . VOL 3 . ISSUE 5 A number of conclusions can be drawn The Sources of the Abu the creation of AHAI in 1989 to pursue from this incident. The kidnappings Jihad Fi Sabilillah, defined as “fighting and and Khwaja’s subsequent execution Sayyaf’s Resilience in the dying for the cause of Islam.”2 Yet it show the generational change among Southern Philippines was only in 1993 when AHAI formally militants in Pakistan and the evolving organized with Abdurajak as the amir.3 relationship between the ISI and By Rommel C. Banlaoi Taliban fighters. Khwaja, for example, Since the formal launch of AHAI in was a controversial figure due to his since the launching of the global war 1989, Abdurajak delivered several associations with the ISI and links with on terrorism in the aftermath of the khutbahs or sermons and released several certain militant groups. After he retired September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on fatawa using the nom-de-guerre “Abu from the military, he worked as a lawyer the United States, the Philippines has Sayyaf,” in honor of Afghan resistance and defended suspected militants been engaged in a prolonged military fighter Abdul Rasul Sayyaf.4 While and Islamist politicians.17 He even campaign against the Abu Sayyaf Group Abdurajak idolized this Afghan leader, reportedly once maintained contacts (ASG). Key ASG leaders have been the suggestion that Abdurajak was an with Usama bin Ladin. It appears that killed in this battle, while others have Afghan war veteran is still a subject the Asian Tigers killed him as revenge been imprisoned for various crimes for verification.5 Some living Filipino against the ISI and against the jihadist associated with terrorism. -
The Pennsylvania State University Schreyer Honors College
THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY SCHREYER HONORS COLLEGE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE CIVIL WAR, GUERRILLA WARFARE, AND TERRORISM: UNDERSTANDING NON- STATE POLITICAL VIOLENCE THROUGH THE PHILIPPINES’ MORO CONFLICT ROBERT Y. CHEN Spring 2015 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for baccalaureate degrees in International Politics and Economics with honors in International Politics Reviewed and approved* by the following: Douglas Lemke Associate Professor of Political Science Thesis Supervisor Gretchen Casper Associate Professor of Political Science Honors Adviser * Signatures are on file in the Schreyer Honors College. i ABSTRACT Civil wars are traditionally studied as distinct from other forms of political dissidence. If a given political conflict does not reach a battle-related death threshold – a standard criterion for classifying a conflict as a civil war – it would fall out of most civil war datasets. I argue that this distinction is arbitrary, and that separating the study of civil war from the study of political conflict both limits and distorts our understanding of all forms of political conflict. In lieu of the separate study of different forms of conflict, I propose a framework from which to consider a particular form of conflict (self-determination) holistically, placing different non-state actor political strategies – terrorism, guerrilla warfare, and interstate war-like conventional warfare – on a spectrum, hypothesizing that actors choose their tactics based on their strength relative to their opponent, the government. In this way, we can understand when, where, and why a non- state actor seeking self-determination will employ terrorism as opposed to attempting to build a de facto state from which to challenge the government.