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271980 Mia Orange Sustaining Authoritarianism Clientelism and Repression in Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan and Tanzania Orange, Mia 2019 Document Version: Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Orange, M. (2019). Sustaining Authoritarianism: Clientelism and Repression in Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan and Tanzania. Lund University. 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LUND UNIVERSITY PO Box 117 221 00 Lund +46 46-222 00 00 MIA ORANGE MIA Sustaining Authoritarianism – Clientelism and in Repression Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan and Tanzania Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan and Tanzania share a past and present as authoritarian states. Dominant parties are in power in Tanzania and Kazakhstan, while elections are competitive but not democratic in Kenya and Kyrgyzstan. Returns for political support (clientelism), Sustaining Authoritarianism and persecution of political adversaries and the electorate (repression), are key components in all four states. This dissertation provides an Clientelism and Repression in Kazakhstan, account of these features, and how and when dynamics of clientelism Kenya, Kyrgyzstan and Tanzania and repression have changed. Clientelism and repression are widely used to explain why states MIA ORANGE transition to a different regime type, suggesting that their presence or FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCE | LUND UNIVERSITY absence, degree or form, informs seminal changes. This dissertation turns such arguments around, instead investigating how changes in regime affect clientelism and repression, allowing an investigation of change within elites, society and the state. It looks at changes in clientelism and repression that did not lead to regime change, and at cases when clientelism and repression continue despite turnovers. Patterns where a more diverse set of actors than the incumbent are involved in repressive and clientelistic practices are investigated, and sub-concepts are developed in order to speak of these changes in more specific terms. This is investigated through careful empirical study and field work carried out in all four states. More than 300 people were interviewed during the course of several years. The perspective is historical, from the late Soviet era in Central Asia, and independence in East Africa. It tracks clientelism both within the elites (intra-elite clientelism), and aimed towards the general public (mass-elite clientelism). Changes in repression are also investigated, using an actor-centered approach re- garding resources and operation Lund University 950614 Faculty of Social Science Department of Political Science ISBN 978-91-7895-061-4 789178 ISSN 0460-0037 9 196 Sustaining Authoritarianism Sustaining Authoritarianism Clientelism and Repression in Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan and Tanzania Mia Orange DOCTORAL DISSERTATION by due permission of the Faculty of Social Science, Lund University, Sweden. To be defended at Edens Hörsal, Department of Political Science Date 3 May 2019, at 10.15. Faculty opponent Jonas Linde University of Bergen Organization Document name LUND UNIVERSITY Doctoral Dissertation Department of Political Science Date of issue Box 52 3 May, 2019 SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden Author Sponsoring organization Mia Orange Lund University Title and subtitle Sustaining Authoritarianism: Clientelism and Represssion in Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan and Tanzania Abstract Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan and Tanzania share a past and present as authoritarian states. Dominant parties are in power in Tanzania and Kazakhstan, while elections are competitive but not democratic in Kenya and Kyrgyzstan. Returns for political support (clientelism), and persecution of political adversaries and the electorate (repression), are key components in all four states. This dissertation provides an account of these features, and how and when dynamics of clientelism and repression have changed. Clientelism and repression are widely used to explain why states transition to a different regime type, suggesting that their presence or absence, degree or form, informs seminal changes. This dissertation turns such arguments around, instead investigating how changes in regime affect clientelism and repression, allowing an investigation of change within elites, society and the state. It looks at changes in clientelism and repression that did not lead to regime change, and at cases when clientelism and repression continue despite turnovers. Patterns where a more diverse set of actors than the incumbent are involved in repressive and clientelistic practices are investigated, and sub-concepts are developed in order to speak of these changes in more specific terms. This is investigated through careful empirical study and field work carried out in all four states. More than 300 people were interviewed during the course of several years. The perspective is historical, from the late Soviet era in Central Asia, and independence in East Africa. It tracks clientelism both within the elites (intra-elite clientelism), and aimed towards the general public (mass-elite clientelism). Changes in repression are also investigated, using an actor-centered approach regarding resources and operation. Key words Clientelism, Repression, Authoritarianism, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tanzania, Kenya Classification system and/or index terms (if any) Supplementary bibliographical information Language English ISSN 0460-0037. ISBN Sustaining Authoritarianism 978-91-7895-061-4 (pdf) 978-91-7895-060-7 (print) Recipient’s notes Number of pages 322 Price Security classification I, the undersigned, being the copyright owner of the abstract of the above-mentioned dissertation, hereby grant to all reference sources permission to publish and disseminate the abstract of the above-mentioned dissertation. Signature Date 2019-03-26 Sustaining Authoritarianism Clientelism and Repression in Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan and Tanzania Mia Orange Cover photo by Mia Orange Copyright Mia Orange Faculty of Social Science Department of Political Science ISBN 978-91-7895-060-7 (print) ISBN 978-91-7895-061-4 (pdf) ISSN 0460-0037 Printed in Sweden by Media-Tryck, Lund University Lund 2019 For my family Table of Contents Preface and Acknowledgements 10 Introduction 13 Purpose and Research Questions 20 Introducing the Cases 24 Theory 35 Regime Types 35 Clientelism and Repression 43 Summary 56 Methods and Research Design 59 Design 59 Methods 63 Single Party Rule 69 Single-Party Rule in Kyrgyzstan and Kenya 70 Single Party Rule in Tanzania and Kazakhstan 95 The Dominant Party Era 131 Dominant Party Rule in Kenya and Kyrgyzstan 131 Dominant Party Rule in Kazakhstan and Tanzania 170 Competitive Authoritarianism 221 Competitive Authoritarianism in Kyrgyzstan and Kenya 221 Conclusions 261 Summary of the Empirical Findings 261 Theoretical Conclusions 272 References 285 Appendixes 321 A Note on Transliteration 321 A Note on Interviewees 321 List of Abbreviations 322 Preface and Acknowledgements Again and again during the process of writing this dissertation, I have found myself alone, only to be welcomed into a warm and supportive community. Most of the fieldwork was done during the years 2009-2012, after which I took a break from academia to raise two children and embark on other professional pursuits. I am immensely grateful to the Department of Political Science for allowing me the opportunity to return to finish the work I once started, and providing support and resources. My supervisors have followed the process through ups and downs, always with encouragement and invaluable comments. Thank you for your time and commitment Jan Teorell of Lund University and Bo Petersson of Malmö University. I would also like to thank Axel Hadenius, who was instrumental during the first year of my studies. Many more have contributed commenting in various stages: Catarina Kinnvall, Anders Uhlin, Kristina Jönsson, Anders Sannerstedt, Klas Nilsson, Mi Lennhag, Anders Persson, Michael Wahman, Christian Goebel, and Staffan I. Lindberg, a sincere thank you for your advice and careful reading. At the department, community matters a great deal, Jonna Pettersson, Nils Gustafsson, Emma Lund, Ted Svensson,Catia Gregoratti, Ina Möller, Helena W. Lindberg, Niklas Altermark, Sofie Gustafsson, Sara Kalm, Mikael Sundström to mention a few have been great company, I am grateful. Countless more than I can mention have made me feel welcome in the academic community. Another time when I have found myself alone was when I arrived in Almaty Kazakhstan for the first time. The academics at KIMEP University, who not only welcomed me to the department, but also to dinner, hiking, skating, their homes and the Stalker bar, named after a movie by Tarkovsky. Many journalists and others helped deepen my knowledge of Kazakhstan, over
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