A Better Predictor of NFL Success: Collegiate Performance Or the NFL Draft Combine?
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East Tennessee State University Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University Electronic Theses and Dissertations Student Works 5-2019 A Better Predictor of NFL Success: Collegiate Performance or the NFL Draft Combine? Michael Gallagher East Tennessee State University Follow this and additional works at: https://dc.etsu.edu/etd Part of the Sports Management Commons, and the Sports Studies Commons Recommended Citation Gallagher, Michael, "A Better Predictor of NFL Success: Collegiate Performance or the NFL Draft Combine?" (2019). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. Paper 3570. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/3570 This Thesis - unrestricted is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Works at Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A Better Predictor of NFL Success: Collegiate Performance or the NFL Draft Combine? _____________________ A thesis presented to the faculty of the Department of Media and Communication East Tennessee State University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Arts in Brand and Media Strategy _____________________ by Mike Gallagher May 2019 _____________________ Dr. Susan E. Waters, Chair Dr. Leslie McCallister Dr. Adam Sayers Keywords: NFL Draft, Combine, College Football, Power 5, Other 5 ABSTRACT A Better Predictor of NFL Success: Collegiate Performance or the NFL Draft Combine? by Mike Gallagher NFL teams spend massive sums to ensure they are prepared for the future, but how should they determine whom that future includes? This study set out to find what predicts NFL success more accurately – collegiate in-game performance or the NFL Draft Combine. In the sample of 2007-2012 first-round picks, 191 athletes were measured in three NFL Draft Combine drills, two physical components, and a varying amount of in- game collegiate and NFL performance statistical categories, dependent on position. Secondarily, this work examined Power 5 and non-Power 5 players to determine if attending a more prolific program was predictive of NFL success. Findings included that 40-yard dash and vertical jump are predictive of offensive linemen and cornerback NFL success, that in-game collegiate statistics are most indicative of NFL success amongst defensive players, and that Power 5 prospects are no more prepared for NFL success than those coming from non-Power 5 schools. 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I never would have thought that getting a Masters degree was something that was attainable for me, as no one in my family had even completed a Bachelors. I owe everyone that supported me back in Minneapolis a big debt of gratitude for keeping me positive throughout the 80- and 90-hour work/school weeks, specifically my mother Kathy and my gal Meagan. Without your encouragement and reminders of my goals, this would’ve been exorbitantly more difficult. To Jay Sandos, the person responsible for hiring me for my graduate assistant position in the athletics department, thanks for taking a chance on someone that had never really accomplished much in broadcasting, and to Matt Higgins, the man that wrote the recommendation that caught Jay’s eye, I hope you know how big of a deal that was in my life. Thank you. To my chair, Dr. Susan Waters, thank you for all the positive reinforcement. Doing a thesis terrified me at first, but you have a way of making things seem more manageable. To Committee member Dr. Leslie McCallister, thank you for taking all the time you did to help refine my paper and confirm my stats. Without the time you put in I would’ve been a nervous wreck coming into defense day. To my other Committee member Dr. Adam Sayers, thanks for taking the time out of your busy schedule to get me to the finish line mate! Finally, to my late father – thank you for instilling the work ethic in me I need to see things through and give them my best, I wish you could be here today, and every day. All of your efforts are greatly appreciated, thank you so much. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT………….……………………………………………………………………2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS……………………………………………………………….3 LIST OF TABLES…..…………………………………………………………………….6 Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION…………………………………………..……………………..…..7 Building From The Outside In - Free Agency…………………………………….7 Building From Within – The NFL Draft……...………………………………….8 2. LITERATURE REVIEW…..………………….……………………………………..11 The NFL Draft – The Super Bowl for NFL Hopefuls………………...…………11 The History of the Combine…….…………….……………………………..…..13 The Combine – Effective or Irrational?……….….…….…………………..……13 Fails without Football Reason…….…………...………………………………...16 Combine Attempts from all Angles…..……....……………………………….…18 Standing Apart from Other Attempts….……...………………………………....23 Framing Theory…...……………………………………………………………..26 3. METHODS…..………………………………...……………………………………..33 Collegiate In-Game Statistics……………………….………………...…………35 NFL In-Game Statistics………………………………………………………….37 Combine Drills…………………………………………………………………...40 Mode of data Gathering……….…………………………………………............41 Reasoning for Collegiate & NFL Statistic Choices……………………………...42 4 Sample Timeframe……………………………………………………………….45 “Power 5” Conferences v Non-“Power 5” Conferences…………………………46 4. RESULTS…………………..…………………….…………………………………..52 Positional Analysis.............……………………………………………………...54 Quarterbacks.............................................................................................54 Running Backs..........................................................................................57 Wide Receivers.........................................................................................60 Tight Ends.................................................................................................64 Offensive Linemen....................................................................................66 Defensive Tackles.....................................................................................71 Defensive Ends.........................................................................................75 Linebackers...............................................................................................79 Cornerbacks..............................................................................................82 Safeties......................................................................................................86 Power 5 & Big East, and Notre Dame v Non-Power 5.............................91 5. DISCUSSION…………...……………………...…………………………………98 Discussion of Findings.………………………………..………………………98 Research Question No. 1...……………………………..………………..99 Research Question No. 2…….…………………………………………108 Limitations, Direction for future Research……………………………………112 Conclusion…..……...…..…………………...…………………………………117 REFERENCES……..………………………………….……………..………………119 VITA………….………………………………………………………………………142 5 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Collegiate & NFL Statistics Measured, by Position.....................................…………34 2. Collegiate In-Game Statistic Descriptions.................................………...…………….35 3. NFL In-Game Statistic Descriptions………………………………………...…….......38 4. NFL Draft Combine Drill Descriptions…….….…………………...………….....40 5. Research Question No. 1 Significant P-Values – Offensive Positions…...........….....106 6. Research Question No. 2 Significant P-Values – Defensive Positions.......................107 7. Research Question No. 2 Significant P-Values – Power 5 v. Non-Power 5…..…......111 6 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION The National Football League is a dominant franchise across the United States, drawing the lion’s share of U.S. sports fans’ consciousness and attention. In 2016, 33 of the top 50 most-viewed sports broadcasts were NFL games (“2016 Ratings Wrap”, 2017), headlined by the most-viewed program across all genres in 2016, Super Bowl 50, the 50th installment of the NFL’s annual championship game (Porter, 2016). The gap between the Super Bowl’s audience, over 111 million total viewers, and the top non-NFL broadcast of the year was over 70 million viewers, with the decisive Game 7 of the World Series dwarfed by the annual spectacle (Porter, 2016). With football drawing droves of individuals to their televisions and to events throughout the year, large sums are paid from advertisers to the league, from the league to the owners, and from the owners to the players. To entertain an audience the size the NFL boasts takes healthy sums of money, and the importance of making sure that money is given to the most talented players to maintain a successful product on the field takes top talent evaluators and is of dire importance to a franchise’s success. When attempting to find the right mix of individuals, those talent evaluators and general managers have two options – the modern concept of free agency, which gives players the chance to move around during their career, or the long-standing tradition of building through the NFL Draft. Building From The Outside In – Free Agency First instituted in 1993 after more than 70 years of players being bound to their original team in varying degrees (The history of, 2018), free agency marks the biggest 7 structural change to the game in the last quarter century (Harrison, 2013), and has since affected the trajectory of many different NFL franchises by making the danger of a player leaving a franchise via unrestricted free agency all the more real. When this is the case, the franchise