Together Make a difference with a coordinated response to emergency management

SCOTLAND The Met Office’s role in emergency preparedness and response

Executive summary The Met Office is a Trading Fund within the Department meteorological information to deal with a range for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and of environmental incidents, from chemical or the official source of meteorological information in the radiological releases to biological hazards such as UK. Legislation supporting the Civil Contingencies Act foot-and-mouth disease. 2004 states that Category 1 responders must have The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) provides daily regard to the Met Office’s duty to warn the public and guidance on all forms of flood risk across England and provide information and advice, if an emergency is likely Wales, whilst the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service to occur or has taken place. (SFFS) performs the same function across Scotland. The The Met Office provides a number of services that help FFC and SFFS assist the Environment Agency, Scottish authorities prepare for and respond to emergencies that Envrionment Protection Agency and Natural Resources are caused or influenced by the weather. These include Wales in issuing tidal flood alerts/warnings for the UK severe weather warnings and plume dispersion mainland. Separate co-operative arrangements for flood predictions. Linked to these services is the ready risk assessment apply in Northern Ireland. availability of advice from teams of Met Office The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre forecasters, advisors and specialist scientists on the (MOSWOC) supplies daily detailed space weather interpretation and impact of the weather during an forecasts to both the public and emergency responders. emergency. If required, Met Office experts are ready to This helps fulfil its commitment to protect those parts of attend or teleconference into tactical/strategic our infrastructure that are at greatest risk from severe command and control centres. space weather events. The Met Office’s Public Weather Service provides a Many of these services are ‘free at the point of use’ by range of basic weather data and related warnings to Category 1 and 2 responders, as defined in the Civil help the UK public (and public sector partners, when Contingencies Act 2004. Occasionally, incidents may appropriate) make informed decisions concerning the require the help of other specialised services that need impact of the weather on their daily activities. The additional funding. These services include the Met Office service makes a vital contribution to the protection Civil Contingencies Aircraft (MOCCA), which is on of life, property and basic infrastructure. permanent standby, and the jointly managed Facility for The National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS) Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) research provides severe weather warnings to the general public aircraft, which can be deployed when available and and emergency responders, giving up to seven days which has appropriate onboard instrumentation for advance notice of disruptive weather conditions. These monitoring particulates and pollutants in the are updated regularly in the run up to the weather event. atmosphere, as well as for measuring the local meteorology. The Environment Monitoring and Response Centre (EMARC) is one of the forecast production units at the This document describes the range of services Met Office. It provides specialist forecasts to the UK provided by the Met Office to help authorities prepare emergency services, relevant government departments, for and respond to emergencies. It also acts as a guide and the international community. It has continuous to help readers interpret the information generated operational capability, which enables the Met Office to by these services. respond immediately to customers requiring Contents

1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Public Weather Service

2. SEVERE WEATHER 2.1 National Severe Weather Warning Service 2.2 Impact tables 2.3 Examples of warnings

3. COOPERATIVE ARRANGEMENTS FOR FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT 3.1 Scottish Flood Forecasting Service 3.2 UK coastal monitoring and forecasting

4. ENVIRONMENTAL INCIDENTS 4.1 Environment Monitoring and Response Centre/Hazard Centre 4.2 FireMet 4.3 Chemical Incidents 4.4 CHEMET 4.5 Biological incidents and animal health 4.6 Nuclear incidents/RIMNET 4.7 Source identification 4.8 Volcanic eruptions 4.9 Space Weather Events

5. CIVIL CONTINGENCIES ADVISORS

6. SEVERE WEATHER RISK ASSESSMENTS

7. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT AND ADVICE 7.1 Hazard Manager 7.2 Specialised weather forecasts 7.3 Airborne support 7.4 Calling on Met Office resources for Command and Control Centres or Science and Technical Advice Cells

8. CONTACT DETAILS

9. LIST OF ACRONYMS

10. CONVERSION TABLES

APPENDIX 1 - SEVERE WEATHER IMPACT TABLES 1. INTRODUCTION

The Met Office is a Trading Fund within the Department 1.1 Public Weather Service for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), and The Met Office’s Public Weather Service (PWS) provides is the official source of meteorological information in a range of basic weather data and related warnings to the UK. It provides a number of services to help the help the UK public (and public sector partners, when authorities prepare for and respond to emergencies. appropriate) make informed decisions concerning the The weather not only can cause an emergency, for impact of the weather on their daily activities. The example, flooding, but may exacerbate the impact of a service, which is vital in its contribution to the range of emergencies, such as chemical releases, protection of life, property and basic infrastructure, nuclear incidents, large fires or biological hazards, comprises: including foot and mouth disease. Legislation supporting • National Severe Weather Warning Service the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 states that Category 1 responders must have regard to the Met Office’s duty to • A range of forecasts available via the give warning, and provide information and advice, to the Met Office website public if an emergency is likely to occur, is underway or • National Meteorological Library and has already taken place. Climatological Archive This duty includes the issuing of severe weather • UK and global response services warnings and plume dispersion predictions. In line with these services, teams of Met Office forecasters and • Civil Contingencies Advisors specialist scientists will advise on the interpretation and • Forecasting guidance from the Met Office impact of the weather during an emergency. A UK-wide Operations Centre team of Civil Contingencies advisors from the Met Office helps in the development and maintenance of • General help and advice from the Met Office severe weather risk registers. This team also handles Customer Centre. the input to exercise and planning processes, and The Public Weather Service Customer Group (PWSCG) attends either in person or via teleconference incident acts as the customer on behalf of the public for free at command and control centres during weather-related the point of use weather services and on behalf of emergencies. Public Sector users of PWS outputs. It is responsible for In addition, the Met Office provides dedicated forecasts setting the requirement and specifying the outputs, and warnings to Category 1 responders. For example, supporting research and development to meet future the Environment Agency, Natural Resources Wales and requirements, meeting international commitments on the Scottish Environment Protection Agency receive behalf of UK Government, providing underpinning data detailed rainfall forecasts and warnings for assessing for stakeholders and authorising payment for the PWS the risk of flooding, on top of the National Severe from BEIS. Weather Warning Service described in this document. The PWSCG ensures that PWS services are aligned to The Maritime and Coastguard Agency receives the the operational needs of the Met Office’s public sector Shipping and Inshore Waters Forecasts and warnings customers, and acts as these customers’ guardian by provided by the public marine forecasting team at the determining the Met Office’s underpinning operational Met Office. capability.

Further information on these latter services can be Other services, such as those provided during found at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/ environmental incidents (for example, the Volcanic Ash weather/marine Advisory Centre and animal health services), are funded by the relevant leading agencies or government This document focuses on the services available to UK departments. emergency planners and responders, and aims to: The vast majority of the services referred to in this • explain the role of the Met Office in helping others document are ‘free at the point of use’ by Category prepare for and respond to emergencies 1 and 2 responders. Where additional funding may be • describe the range of services available to required, this is stated in the document. emergency planners and responders • provide guidance on interpreting the products. 2. SEVERE WEATHER

2.1 National Severe Weather Warning Service In spring 2018 the next generation of NSWWS was launched. Amongst the new features brought in was a The Met Office provides the National Severe Weather simplified structure to the text, allied to new web Warning Service (NSWWS) to alert the public, civil graphics that were introduced in April 2017. The revised emergency authorities and the Ministry of Defence in text format comprises three distinct sections namely; advance of severe weather conditions, so that mitigating action may be undertaken to reduce i) The Weather Headline potential impacts. Warnings are issued when significant ii) What to Expect disruption to transport and communications is expected, but the ultimate driver is the potential risk to iii) Further Details life and property. The ‘Weather Headline’ is a short, concise, description The warnings are issued to emergency responders via of the expected weather hazard in plain English. The email and text and to the public via the website and the ‘What to Expect’ section is where potential impacts very popular Met Office App. Responders can register from the weather are explained and will vary according to receive warnings via the Hazard Manager facility to the position of the warning on the risk matrix. The (Section 7.1), where they may specify their preferred ‘Further Details’ section allows for additional delivery mechanism, weather warning categories and information such as rainfall totals, wind strengths and specific area of interest within the UK. snow accumulations to be specified, together with other contextual information, all aimed at adding value The warnings methodology, together with selected and clarity to the warning. examples, are outlined below. A full description of the service including case studies and severe weather In addition to the existing five severe weather advice can be found at categories (rain, wind, snow, ice and fog) two new categories were added at the request of emergency https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/ responders, namely thunderstorms and lightning. warnings The warnings are formulated through 1) an assessment 2.2 Impact tables of the potential impacts of a severe weather event, and 2) the likelihood of those impacts occurring. Once the To provide emergency responders and the general level of impact and the likelihood of occurrence have been public with a more detailed listing of the outcomes they determined, the warning is assigned a colour (yellow, can expect for a given level of impact (very low/low/ amber or red) and positioned in a simple risk matrix. medium/high), impact tables have been compiled for each of the seven specified severe weather types, The traffic light colour scheme, widely used in risk available at the end of this document (Appendix 1) or assessment, is familiar to all emergency responders and via; https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/ remains a convenient means of depicting the level of severe-weather-advice risk attached to a given event. Red and amber issues, along with medium and high impact yellows, are all ‘pushed’ out to registered recipients of the warnings, as well as to the website, High ✓ Hazard Manager and the App. Low impact yellow warnings are not currently ‘pushed’ and must be retrieved from the website, Hazard Manager or App by Med L

the user. i k In most cases the regional/national Civil Contingencies e Low l i Advisor (see Section 5) will brief their local emergency h responders (via email) after a warning has been posted, o od Very giving additional background information and discussing low the potential local impacts of the predicted event. Apart from the obvious benefits of local advisor Very Low Med High expertise in interpreting each severe weather situation, low the act of simply notifying responders is particularly relevant inFi gtheur ecase 1. E ofxa lowmp impactle of th yellowe risk m issues,atrix uwheresed i n Impact the responder maya lnotl se havevere immediateweather a laccesserts/w toar neitherings. Hazard Manager (Section 7.1) or the website and may thus be unaware of the existence of the warning. Figure 1 - The risk matrix used in all severe weather warnings. As a quick guide to the colours, they should be interpreted as: No severe weather Yellow ‘Be aware’: remain alert and ensure you access the latest weather forecast. Be aware Amber ‘Be prepared’: remain vigilant and ensure you access the latest weather fo recast. Be prepared Take precautions where possible. Take action Red ‘Take action’: remain extra vigilant and ensure you access the latest weather forec ast. Follow orders and any advice given by the authorities under all circumstances and be prepared for extraordinary measures. 2.3 Examples of warnings Email version Web version The majority of emergency responders receive severe weather warnings via email or text message. Figure 3 Figure 2 shows an example of the severe weather shows an example of an email-style warning for snow warnings page on the Met Office website taken from a issued on 02 April 2018. day in April 2018. All warnings in force on a particular day appear in vertical stack formation with red issues on top, followed by amber then yellow. Each warning displays its weather colour, category and validity period, followed by the weather headline and what to expect sections. Beneath these lies a link to the further details section which includes the risk matrix and a listing of those regions/countries and county authorities lying wholly or partly within the warning area. To the right of the warnings list is a map of the UK showing all warnings in force on that given day. As well as a pan/zoom facility, users can highlight individual warning areas - important on a day when multiple warnings have been issued that overlap in both space and time. On the day in question various yellow warnings for rain and snow had been issued across the length of the UK.

Figure 3 - An example of a severe weather warning in email format from 02 April 2018.

Figure 2 - The severe weather warnings page on the Met Office website as it appeared on 02 April 2018. 3. COOPERATIVE ARRANGEMENTS FOR FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT

Following the summer 2007 floods, the Pitt Review Following this the flood risk assessment is broken down recommended greater operational co-operation into text sections dealing separately with the threat between meteorologists and hydrologists. This resulted from river, surface water, tidal and groundwater in the development of the Scottish Flood Forecasting flooding. During periods of elevated flood risk ‘Specific Service (SFFS) - a partnership between the Met Office Areas of Concern’ (AOC) maps are used to highlight the and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) different flood risk regimes assessed on a given day. and, for England and Wales, the Flood Forecasting Each flood risk area is denoted by a separate letter of Centre (FFC) - a partnership between the Met Office, the alphabet, along with its own risk matrix, the the Environment Agency (EA) and Natural Resources expected source of the flooding and the likely impacts. Wales (NRW). Figures 4 and 5 (overleaf) show the front page and A key aim of both the SFFS and FFC is to provide the Specific Areas of Concern map respectively, from the best possible support and intelligence to both SEPA and FGS that was issued on 24 January 2018, a day on EA/NRW flood warnings services and the Met Office’s which several AOCs were required for both river and National Severe Weather Warnings Service. Combining surface water. each organisation’s knowledge and experience makes it A partner teleconference is called as and when deemed possible for Category 1 and 2 responders to receive necessary by any of the partner teams in the SFFS, more accurate and targeted flood-risk information at usually during periods of elevated flood risk when the longer lead times than was previously the case. This, in FGS is shaded up amber or red in any of the regions. The turn, allows responders to be better prepared for teleconference provides the opportunity to discuss the flooding events. situation in greater detail and consider the response on a more local basis. Included within the agenda is the 3.1 Scottish Flood Forecasting Service latest weather update provided by the local Met Office Civil Contingency Advisor, followed by an assessment The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service (SFFS) became by SEPA of those locations considered most at risk from operational in March 2011. It works through a ‘virtual’ river/coastal/groundwater flooding. When the flood risk centre, with the meteorology provided by the Duty is derived mainly from surface water excess, local Forecaster at Met Office Aberdeen and the hydrology knowledge from fellow responders can be vital in by the on-call Duty Hydrology Forecaster at SEPA in identifying potential flood locations. Perth. At times of severe flooding a combined team is able to work out of either Aberdeen or Perth. A Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) is issued daily, with the weather input prepared by Met Office Aberdeen and then passed to a hydrologist, who examines the likely impacts of the forecast. The FGS provides an overview of the flood risk across Scotland for the current day and the following four days. It identifies potential severe weather events that could cause flooding and significant disruption to normal life through river, tidal, surface water or ground-water effects, or through any combination of these events. The methodology for assessing flood risk is very similar to that for severe weather (Section 2) with the Scottish regions shaded green, yellow, amber or red depending upon the combination of potential impacts and the likelihood of such impacts being realised. At the end of each FGS is the flood risk matrix, together with a summary of potential impacts for the four defined impact Figure 4 - The front cover of the Flood Guidance categories (minimal, minor, significant and severe). Statement issued on 24 January 2018, showing the day by day regional flood risk maps. The front page of the FGS displays the region by region flood risk for all five forecast days, together with a general overview of the flood risk and a weather summary. Each division has one or more reference ports that are equipped with a set of tide gauges that accurately measure water levels. The National Oceanographic Centre incorporates the Tide Gauge Inspectorate, which is responsible for the upkeep and administration of the tide gauge network. The Met Office receives data from each gauge through a system called Tidepole. Each reference port has a predefined danger level. Events in which meteorological factors result in water levels rising above tidal predictions are termed ‘positive surges’. If the peak of a surge coincides with high tide there will be an increased risk of coastal flooding. The reverse situation – in which water levels fall below tidal predictions – is known as a ‘negative surge’ and Figure 5 - The Specific Areas of Concern map from can assume great importance for shipping at times of the Flood Guidance Statement of 24 January 2018. low tidal water. Computer models play a key role in forecasting surges (and hence coastal water levels). Developed in association with the National 3.2 UK coastal monitoring and forecasting Oceanographic Centre, the Met Office’s surge model The origins of coastal flood forecasting date back to the uses data from its own suite of weather prediction tragic events of 1953 along the east coast of England, models. when more than 300 people lost their lives during a If the water level at one of the ports is forecast to reach, widespread tidal inundation. The impact of the flood or come close to, the danger level, the Flood Forecasting was felt even more acutely across the low-lying parts of Centre (FFC) will issue an alert to the relevant regional The Netherlands where over 1800 people lost their office of the Environment Agency, Natural Resources lives. The Flood Guidance Statements described Wales or SEPA, which will then judge whether or not to previously also include the risk of coastal flooding issue alerts to the public. arising from a combination of high astronomical tides, low atmospheric pressure and strong onshore winds. They will also advise relevant authorities and The Flood Forecasting Centre has responsibility for organisations within the division on whether flood monitoring tidal water levels around the UK coastline barriers need to be closed and what emergency and issuing alerts when the influence of the weather on procedures should be initiated. The initial alert will the tidal regime may result in a hazardous situation. This come from the FFC typically 12 hours before the monitoring forms part of the service provided to the expected event. Six hours before the event, and in the Environment Agency, Natural Resources Wales and the light of new data, the FFC will either confirm or cancel Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), which the original alert. are tasked with using this and other information to assess the risk of coastal flooding. For monitoring and forecasting purposes the coastline of England and Wales is divided into 10 divisions for the Environment Agency, as shown in Figure 7. SEPA also receives a service for nine areas around the Scottish coast, as shown in Figure 6. Kinlochbervie Wick Stornoway Ullapool Lerwick Moray Firth Figure 7 - UK coastal monitoring Aberdeen and forecasting tidal alert regions for England and Wales.

Tobermory

Millport Leith Port Ellen Division 1

Portrush North Shields Portpatrick Workington Division 2(N) Bangor Division 10 Whitby Port Errin Heysham

Liverpool Division 2(S) Immingham Holyhead Llandudno Cromer Division 9 Lowestoft Division 3

Division 5 Felixstowe Fishguard Newport Milford haven Sheerness Mumbles Avonmout h Ilfracombe Dover Division 4 Hinckley Newhaven Division 8 Bournemouth Portsmouth Plymouth Weymouth Newlyn Division 6 St Marys Division 7 Coastal flood watch areas Area 7

Area 6

Area 5 Area 8

Area 4

Area 9 Area 3

Area 1

Area 2 Figure 6 - Scottish Environment Protection Agency tidal alert forecasting areas. 4. ENVIRONMENTAL INCIDENTS

Products and services from the Met Office for incident command units and mobilising centres to responding quickly to an environmental incident are coordinate the best possible route of approach using used primarily in short-term consequence management their knowledge of the local road network. (for example, by providing predictions on the dispersion of pollutants released into the atmosphere). They also aid long-term recovery.

4.1 Environment Monitoring and Response Centre/ Hazard Centre The Environment Monitoring And Response Centre (EMARC) is part of the Hazard Centre which was established in 2011. The Hazard Centre has a wide remit and is largely concerned with hazard impacts. Its work includes landslides, wildfire, volcanic eruptions, space weather and ice accretion on power lines. EMARC was originally set up in 1999 and provides specialist short- notice forecasts to the UK emergency services and government departments, as well as to the international community, operating 24/7 365 days a year. Figure 8 - FireMet data display from 14 February 2018, using Edinburgh City Centre as a reference point. In this way, the Met Office can provide an immediate response to emergency responders requiring meteorological information to help deal with a variety FireMet also provides three hours’ worth of hindcast of environmental incidents. These may include chemical and forecast weather data for the site and thus can fires, radiological releases, large wildfires, or biological assist with the initial response to the fire whilst the hazards such as foot-and-mouth disease or bluetongue. more detailed, longer term forecast information In the event of an accident leading to the release of a (CHEMET, see Section 4.4) is being prepared. In order to hazardous substance in waters around the UK, EMARC properly represent plume behaviour FireMet requires a provides services to the Maritime and Coastguard minimum wind speed of around 6 to 7mph. Below these Agency (MCA) that are similar to the CHEMET service speeds the plume is too unpredictable and a safe (section 4.3) used for the release of hazardous upwind location can’t be specified. FireMet is accessed substances on land. The MCA itself has developed a via the Hazard Manager service (Section 7) and Figure 8 National Contingency Plan that details the response to shows an example of the user display. a pollution spillage from shipping or offshore installations. Were the incident to take place in Plume modelling international waters, the response would be collaborative, involving the national meteorological Any major fire such as those at recycling plants, tyre services of other countries. storage sites or involving hazardous chemicals, will inevitably generate a dense plume of smoke whose The intention within the Hazard Centre is to compile a direction of travel, speed and degree of vertical/ wide-ranging natural hazards database that will help horizontal propagation will be determined by the forecasters gauge what future impacts might be, based prevailing weather conditions. on what has already been documented in previous events. In the following sections, we describe those The Met Office can provide plume predictions during Hazard Centre functions that are of greatest emergencies, in which Hazard Centre forecasters importance to emergency responders. interpret data from the latest observations, as well as from dedicated computer models, to deduce the local weather conditions and the areas at risk from the 4.2 FireMet pollutant. Local variations in wind speed and direction When a major fire is first reported, Fire and Rescue are important influences on dispersion. Services need to determine a safe direction of Precipitation at the scene or downwind can wash the approach, dependent largely upon the wind conditions pollutant out of the atmosphere, leading to higher at the time. The FireMet system, developed in concentrations on the ground locally. The vertical collaboration with the Department for Housing, temperature profile of the atmosphere determines the Communities and Local Government, uses the postcode stability of the air, an important factor when of the incident to generate a 360-degree map showing considering how high the plume is likely to rise, and those 30-degree sectors considered potentially unsafe therefore the downwind distance it might travel and its for approach by fire appliances. This then allows behaviour close to hills. Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion 4.3 Chemical incidents Modelling Environment In the event of an incident involving hazardous chemicals, The Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling local Fire/Rescue and Police services will contact the Met Environment (NAME) is used by the Hazard Centre to Office via the Hazard Centre’s dedicated emergency predict the movement of a wide range of pollutants in the phone line (see Section 8 for details). Typical scenarios are atmosphere, including those resulting from fires, large chemical spillages, chemical plant or oil refinery fires, and chemical incidents, radiological releases, and volcanic ash. road traffic accidents involving the escape or ignition of a It is also used to predict the spread of airborne diseases hazardous substance. such as foot-and-mouth. For small-scale events, the Hazard Centre produces On being notified of an incident forecasters will run the meteorological guidance and a plume prediction, NAME simulation, after having input all available collectively known as a CHEmical METeorology (CHEMET) information, to predict the movement, deposition and forecast. For larger events, such as the Buncefield Oil dispersal of large plumes of material for periods ranging Depot fire in 2005, NAME is used to produce information from hours to several days. The model produces a on the plume behaviour over longer timescales and geographical display of the movement of the plume, greater distances. showing the area at risk. One of the main problems when dealing with chemical or nuclear releases is accurately estimating the source term to determine how much of the chemical or radioactive material is present and exactly which radioisotopes are being released. For this reason, initial NAME runs will often employ what is known as a default unit release, whereby in a radiological scenario the designated source term undergoes a specified rate of radioactive disintegration each second. For chemical releases, a default source strength of 1g per second of a tracer gas is used. Comparison of the resulting predictions of chemical/radioactive dispersion with real-time monitoring data ultimately leads to a much better estimate of the source term. The response time for providing NAME output varies from 20 minutes for small-scale events to nearer one hour for a FigureFigure 12. NAME 9 - outputAn exampleexample. of NAME output. full 5-day prediction. NAME can be re-run as more details become available following an incident, providing more precise concentration and deposition values. In many 4.3 Chemical incidents CHEMET cases, however, it is often some hours into the event In the event of an incident involving hazardous chemicals, A CHEMET forecast is made up of two parts. Form A describes local Fire/Rescue and Police services will contact the Met the details of the incident and Form B provides a forecast before the composition of the chemicals or substances Office via the Hazard Centre’s dedicated emergency phone of the relevant meteorological parameters. Accompanying involved is fully known. An example of NAME output is line (see Chapter 8 for details). Typical scenarios could be a Form B is an area at risk map which uses the Ordnance Survey chemical spillage, a fire at a chemical plant or oil refinery, or 1:25000 series, on which is projected the entire area at risk shown in Figure 9. a road traffic accident in which a hazardous substance has with an inner core where the risk of contamination is highest. either escaped or ignited. CHEMETs are faxed or emailed to the relevant emergency services typically within 10 to 15 minutes after the initial For small scale events, the Hazard Centre produces request. Examples of Forms A and B, together with an area at meteorological guidance and a plume prediction, collectively risk map are given in Figures 13, 14 and 15 respectively. known as a CHEmical METeorology (CHEMET) forecast. For larger events, such as the Buncefield Oil Depot fire, NAME is used to produce information on the plume behaviour over longer timescales and greater distances. 4.4 CHEMET When the initial call to the Hazard Centre is made the Met Office meteorologist will request various information including the name of the organisation and contact details along with a summary and location of the incident, in order to build up an understanding of the situation and the prevailing weather conditions. The CHEMET forecast package comprises a forecast form and a ‘Plume below 100 metres map’, emailed to the requesting organisation with a target turnaround time of 20 minutes. Regular updates can be requested for longer lasting incidents. The forecast form focusses on the wind speed/direction, expected weather and their combined effect on the behaviour of the plume. Additional weather data are provided to aid science and health agencies involved in the response. Figure 10 - An example of a CHEMET ‘Plume below 100 The plume below 100 metres map depicts the expected metres’ map originating from a site within Aberdeen on spread of the plume (and resulting relative concentrations 15 March 2018. of the released chemical) within the lowest 100m of the atmosphere during the first three hours of the forecast, Chemical dispersion is rarely as uniform as depicted in this then helping to inform decisions by the emergency the plume dispersion map, with the immediate services regarding possible evacuation or of alternative surroundings, local topography and atmospheric countermeasures. Those agencies interested in how the structure combining to influence the pattern of pollutants disperses throughout the atmosphere can dispersion. Furthermore, the presence of precipitation request an additional map known as the ‘Total Mass during a release will result in washout from the plume, Column’ map. Each CHEMET forecast is given a unique leading to hotspots of contamination. In such situations identification number and is posted on Hazard Manager. a full NAME simulation of the release, with Figure 10 shows an example of a plume below 100 metres accompanying air concentration/ground deposition map for a site close to Exeter in SW England. Pdf guides to maps, backed up by local monitoring, would be both CHEMET and the additional CHEMET Pro service (see necessary to obtain a complete picture of the predicted below) are available via Hazard Manager. contamination. These additional maps form the core of the CHEMET Pro service. CHEMET Pro 4.5 Biological incidents and animal health The CHEMET Pro service is an extension to the CHEMET The Met Office, along with the Pirbright Institute and the service, providing emergency responders with Animal and Plant Health Agency, continues to support predictions of pollutant air concentration, along with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs maps depicting the extent of wet, dry and total (DEFRA) in forecasting the spread of airborne diseases deposition over the area affected. The additional data is such as foot-and-mouth or bluetongue. generated by NAME at the same time as the standard Such forecasts follow on from notification of an outbreak CHEMET product but with the same delivery time. in the agricultural community. In the case of bluetongue, Having such predictions to hand enables the level of the forecast predicts the arrival of the virus on infected exposure/contamination to the public and the windborne midges from continental Europe. Since 2006 environment to be more accurately assessed. the bluetongue virus has been present on the near- Interpretation of the CHEMET Pro output requires a continent, with an incursion of the virus into the UK measure of expertise and, as a result, its use and occurring in August 2007. More recently, in the summer availability is geared towards public health professionals of 2017, the virus was detected on a group of cattle who can make best use of the information. imported from France. Figure 11 shows an example of a deposition chart If another foot-and-mouth outbreak is detected, NAME produced for CHEMET Pro. The ranges of forecast will be run using high-resolution localised weather data. chemical deposition are defined by a set of colours that This will compile information on the outbreak, such as together make up the plume, each colour denoting a level 4.4the Biological numbers incidents and and types animal health of livestock affected on-site and of deposition an order of magnitude higher/lower than The Met Office, along with the Institute for Animal Health (IAH),on neighbouringcontinues to support the farms. Department for Environment, the adjacent colour. Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) in forecasting the spread of airborneAssessing diseases such bluetongue as Foot and Mouth risk or Bluetongue. involves the prediction of This either follows notification of an outbreak in the agriculturalmidge communitydispersal, or, in the based case of Bluetongue, on research predicts carried out by the the arrival of the virus on infected windborne midges from continentalPirbright Europe. Institute. Since 2006, the Each Bluetongue day, virus NAME has is run to assess the been present on the near continent and an incursion of the virusdispersal into the UK occurredof clusters in August 2007. of midges, which tend to become Ifactive another Foot around and Mouth sunriseoutbreak is detected, and sunset.NAME would Concentration plumes be run using high-resolution localised weather data. This wouldare joinproduced information on based the outbreak, on such the as the airborne numbers spread of the midges and types of livestock affected on site and on neighbouring farms.from representative source areas on the near-continent. Assessing Bluetongue risk involves the prediction of midge dispersal,In either based oncase, research using carried out a bygeographic the IAH. Each day, information system NAME is run for clusters of midges which tend to become activeallows around NAME the times of output sunrise and sunset.to be Concentration overlaid on to an Ordnance plumesSurvey are produced map based and on thenthe airborne passed spread of on to DEFRA. An example the midges from representative source areas on the near continent.of this output relating to foot-and-mouth disease is In either case, using a geographic information system enables NAMEshown output into beFigure overlaid on 12. to an Ordnance Survey map and passed to DEFRA. An example of this output relating to Foot and Mouth is shown in Figure 17.

Figure 11 - A sample CHEMET Pro deposition map produced for a location in Aberdeen, based on real time weather conditions there on 15 March 2018.

FigureFigure 17. Foot 12 and Mouth - An Disease example example. of how NAME is used to predict the spread of Foot and Mouth disease. 4.6 Nuclear incidents Forecaster or a Met Office Civil Contingencies Advisor may be deployed to the MoD in London. Following a small-scale nuclear incident, the response from the Hazard Centre would be similar to that for a Elsewhere, the Met Office provides NAME output for chemical incident (as with the CHEMET service), in that military incidents that may have international the site operator would initially receive a map showing repercussions, with the Hazard Centre’s role becoming the area most at risk from contaminating material. A one of support in such circumstances. small-scale incident would typically involve the loss of small amounts of radioactive material from either a fixed RIMNET – The Radioactive Incident nuclear site or nuclear products in transit, but would not Monitoring NETwork be expected to affect a large geographical area. Following the world’s worst nuclear disaster, the Larger nuclear incidents require a different level of Chernobyl accident in 1986, the UK Government response. The accident at Chernobyl in 1986 - where developed a National Response Plan to ensure that any around 8 tonnes of highly radioactive material was future similar emergency could be effectively managed. exposed to the atmosphere, resulting in widespread The National Response Plan, now replaced by the contamination – prompted the Met Office to develop Nuclear Emergency Planning and Response Guidance the NAME model referred to previously. Its aim was to was, and remains, a multi-departmental and multi- accurately predict the path of any future nuclear agency programme, with the Department for Business, releases. Today, on notification of an accident, the Duty Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) as nominated Forecaster runs the NAME simulation after having input Lead Government Department for overseas nuclear all known information on the release. response. The RIMNET system lies at the heart of the National Response, and over the years has been Procedures and Communications following Release developed as both a multi-purpose response tool and a of Radioactive Material (PACRAM) platform for the effective coordination of the various agencies in an emergency response scenario. Central to The PACRAM service operates in similar fashion to the the UK response to the Fukushima incident (Japan CHEMET process with an initial request for assistance 2011), RIMNET is employed. in the UK response to any to EMARC made either by the site emergency controller radiological event. It also has the potential to be used in or by the local Fire and Rescue Service. The initial call non-radiological events. should be made as early as possible, when the suspected radioactive release is still within the site RIMNET is managed by the UK Met Office, working in boundaries, prior to the declaration of an offsite nuclear partnership with BEIS, on behalf of all UK government emergency. In response the duty EMARC forecaster will departments and agencies with a role in a radiological/ prepare a forecast dispersion plume and attach it to the nuclear emergency response, including Lead ‘Forecast Information Form’ which describes the Government Departments for domestic (UK) expected weather conditions at the site for the next nuclear events. three hours. Both products are then sent to the site, Fire The RIMNET team and system provide: and Rescue and also RIMNET who will display the output on their system, to which various responders • A bespoke IT interface (the response tool) utilised and government departments have access. by multiple government departments and agencies across the UK. As with CHEMET the facility exists for generating maps showing predicted air concentration, along with wet/ • A network of 96 fixed gamma dose-rate monitoring dry/total deposition of radionuclides. In most cases the sites across the UK (see Figure 13), automatically magnitude and composition of the source term will measuring, analysing and passing on information remain unknown in the early stages of an incident, the about background radiation levels 24 hours a day, plume depicting the dispersion of a notional unit release 365 days a year. The automatic analysis tool of radioactivity (1Bq or 1012 Bq). Only once further data, undertakes real-time checks on radiation levels, both from the site and from key offsite monitoring and alerts a standby team to any abnormalities. stations, has been received, can a full assessment of • An Approved Data Supplier Network providing potential radioactive contamination be made. In an supplementary data measurements, both routinely extended release one or more PACRAM updates will and during an emergency, including people, food be required. and environmental monitoring results. This now includes a mobile gamma dose monitoring MoD commitments capability. For minor releases at military installations, the Hazard • The UK National Nuclear Database, in which all Centre provides a service almost identical to that for measurement and reference data is stored to civil authorities, namely, an ‘area-at-risk’ map and facilitate analysis and presentation. PACRAM forecasts. For larger incidents, the Duty • A mapping and GIS system, including various layers Dissemination of information is preceded by an initial such as population and agricultural information, alert that is sent via fax to a host local authority (HLA), alongside plume prediction modelling. and also to police control rooms via the police national computer. The alert is then disseminated locally by • Document management and distribution facilities. following agreed procedures. This initial alert notifies RIMNET is more than just an IT tool. The IT system recipients that further specific information will follow in combines with procedures and dedicated facilities to the form of ‘information messages’, which are sent by aid in the management and coordination of any given email to nominated email addresses. emergency scenario. RIMNET development has created the ability to lead or support the UK command and control structure at either the local, regional or national level. Co-located within other Lead Government Departments, it ensures, along with other response tools, a fully integrated and effective response.

Providing RIMNET Support The RIMNET Team provide support to both the RIMNET system user community and the wider response communities in a variety of ways: • RIMNET system user support: as well as the provision of exercise and training programmes, the RIMNET Team manage a ‘Current Event’ folder during all Real and Exercise events that provides users with easy access to pre-formatted information in the major areas of documentation, plume prediction and monitoring data (see Figure Figure 13 - The network of Gamma radiation monitoring 14 for an example from the Fukushima incident). sites across the UK. • An on-site presence: the RIMNET Team may be requested to attend user sites, such as BEIS and MoD, to provide immediate and in-depth access to system resources. • National cells: the RIMNET Team attend other facilities as required, for example, COBR (Cabinet Office Briefing Room) or SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group to Emergencies).

Providing Information to Emergency Responders The RIMNET system provides all users with access to the managed document store, the plume prediction model viewer and the National Nuclear Database, which stores reference data as well as up-to-date monitoring results from across the globe. The system also contains an inbuilt distribution system allowing for information to be distributed to non-users, including: • Other government departments and agencies, Figure 14 - An example of plume prediction from who either have direct access to the RIMNET the Fukushima incident in 2011, as displayed on system or receive information messages. the RIMNET system. • Local authorities – alerts utilising the Police National Computer and subsequent event updates direct to nominated fax and email contacts. • The international community. The RIMNET team, on behalf of BEIS and the UK, lead on the use of international information and data exchange systems with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the European Union. 4.7 Source Identification MoD commitments 4.6 Source identification By running NAME backwards in time the Met Office can For minor releases at military installations, the Hazard Centre determine the potentialBy running source NAME of a particular backwards measured in time the Met Office can provides a service almost identical to that provided for civil determine the potential source of a particular measured pollutant. This is used where a pollutant has been authorities, i.e. the provision of an ‘area at risk’ map and pollutant. This is used where a pollutant has been detected, detected, or where people or animals have exhibited PACRAM forecasts. For larger incidents, the Duty Forecaster or where people or animals have exhibited symptoms, and or one of the Met Office Civil Contingenciessymptoms, Advisors may and be there there is a is need a need to toidentify identify the where source the sourceof of the release deployed to MoD in London. the release or outbreak.or outbreak An example may be. from An example a system from a system developed developed by the Metby Officethe Met Officefor RIMNET for RIMNET is given (the in Radioactive Incident Elsewhere, Met Office staff provide NAME output for military Figure 15. Monitoring Network) is given in Figure 19. incidents that may have international repercussions, with the Hazard Centre’s role becoming one of supportThis shows in such the likelyThis area shows of the the source, likely area based of the on source, three based on three sensor circumstances. sensor detections acrossdetections the Southacross Westthe South of England. West of England. The deeper The deeper colours coloursindicate indicate the most the likelymost likelylocation. location.

60

55

50

45

10 5 0 5 10

Figure 15 - Source identification derived from running Figure 19. Source identification example. NAME backwards in time. 4.9 Volcanic eruptions 4.8 Volcanic eruptions plume. Output from this model is presented in a map- The Hazard Centre has an international commitment as onebased of Duringgraphical an format, event, the and Hazard can detail Centre expected liaises ashclosely with the The Hazard Centre has an international commitment as 11 designated Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) acrossconcentrations Icelandic atMeteorological various flight Office levels (duringover a large the 2010area eruption two one of 11 designated Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres the world, each with responsibility for a specific geographicalfor severalMet Officedays after Civil theContingencies initial volcanic Advisors activity. spent a fortnight’s sector.(VAACs) The across Met Office’sthe world, sector each ofwith responsibility responsibility includes for a detachment with their Icelandic colleagues), which is itself in Icelandspecific and geographical advisories weresector. provided As the followingMet Office’s the eruptionssector During close an event, contact the with Hazard the CentreNordic liaisesVolcanological closely with Institute. ofof Heklaresponsibility in 2000, includes Grimsvötn Iceland, in 2004 advisories and 2011, were as well as the Icelandic Meteorological Office (during the 2010 The Hazard Centre is provided with all the latest observational duringprovided the following prolonged the eruption eruptions of of Eyjafjallajökull Hekla in 2000 from and Marcheruption two Met Office Civil Contingencies Advisors data as it emerges. This may be data from seismic surveys toGrimsvötn May 2010. in 2004 and 2011, as well as during the spent a fortnight’s detachment with their Icelandic prolonged eruption of Eyjafjallajökull from March to colleagues),undertaken which byis itself the Nordic in close Volcanological contact with theInstitute, or eye TheMay International 2010. Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Nordicwitness Volcanological accounts Institute. of current plume behaviour or volcanic recognises the need to inform aircraft of the hazards posed activity. Additional visual observations may originate from The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) The Hazard Centre is provided with all the latest by volcanoes, particularly the dangers of airborne volcanic aviators in the vicinity. Satellite pictures also provide valuable recognises the need to inform aircraft of the hazards observational data as it emerges. This may be data from ash. Not only can volcanic ash cause airframe damage it can information on the spread of an ash plume. Sophisticated posed by volcanoes, particularly the dangers from seismic surveys undertaken by the Nordic adversely affect visibility and, more importantly, interferes detection systems have been developed to enable forecasters airborne volcanic ash. Not only can volcanic ash cause Volcanological Institute, or eyewitness accounts of with aircraft performance when drawn through the engine to more easily identify ash plumes from satellite imagery. An airframe damage, it can impair visibility and, more current plume behaviour and volcanic activity. example of a Volcanic Ash Advisory communicated during the intakes,importantly, with interferepotentially with serious aircraft consequences. performance when Additional visual observations may originate from Eyjafjallajökull eruption in April 2010 is shown in Figure 21. Indrawn the event through of an the eruption, engine intakes, the responsible with potentially VAAC issues aviators in the vicinity. Satellite pictures also provide routineserious statementsconsequences. to the aviation community, detailing thevaluable information on the spread of an ash plume. Sophisticated detection systems have been developed latestIn the position event of of an the eruption, resulting the ash responsible plume and VAAC its expected issues to make it easier for forecasters to identify ash plumes movementroutine statements during the to subsequentthe aviation 48community, hours. The detailing Hazard from satellite imagery. An example of a Volcanic Ash Centrethe latest uses position a modified of the version resulting of ashthe plumeNAME andmodel its to forecast Advisory, communicated during the Eyjafjallajökull theexpected behaviour movement and trajectory during theof the subsequent plume. Output 48 hours. from this eruption in April 2010, is shown in Figure 16. modelThe Hazard is in a Centre map-based uses agraphical modified format, version and of thecan detailNAME expectedmodel to forecastash concentrations the behaviour at various and trajectory flight levels of the over a large area for several days after the initial volcanic activity.

VA ADVISORY SUMMIT ELEV: 1666M RMK: ASH CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN INDICATED AREAS ARE UNKNOWN. NO SIGNIFICANT ASH RISK ABOVE FL350. DTG: 20100416/0600Z ADVISORY NR: 2010/009 VAAC: LONDON INFO SOURCE: ICELAND MET OFFICE NXT ADVISORY: 20100416/1200Z VOLCANO: AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED EYJAFJALLAOKULL ERUPTION DETAILS: SIGNIFICANT ERUPTION PSN: N6338 W01937 CONTINUING, REACHING FL180. AREA: ICELAND

Figure 16 - Volcanic Ash Advisory issued during the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in April 2010. Figure 21. Volcanic Ash Advisory issued during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in April 2010. 4.9 Space Weather Events The Met Office space weather advisor monitors the Sun on a 24/7 basis, using solar imagery (see Figure 17) and In response to the government adding solar storms to other satellite data. The analysis of this data is used to the National Risk Register (NRR) of civil emergencies in produce space weather forecasts. Warnings and alerts 2011, the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre about radio blackouts, geomagnetic storms and (MOSWOC) was created to provide a UK operational radiation storms are issued as necessary. space weather prediction centre to help protect the country from the serious threats posed by space Our space weather advisors work in partnership with weather events. the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Space Weather Prediction Centre (SWPC), Space weather describes changing environmental and the British Geological Survey (BGS). During an conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, extreme event they will also liaise with government radiation, particles and matter, emitted from the Sun, departments, including BEIS and the Civil Contingencies can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and Secretariat at the Cabinet Office. surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects. The major impacts of an extreme event can MOSWOC will provide the latest data and model output roughly be divided into two areas: impacts on terrestrial as it emerges to ensure all sectors are prepared to deal technology and threats to equipment and health in with the current situation. Although MOSWOC will space and at high altitude. These include: report on the space weather situation, communication about the impacts will be handled by the appropriate • Power grid outages government department. • Disruption to Global Navigation Satellite Systems Since space weather and its impacts are not as well e.g. GPS, Galileo, GLONASS understood as terrestrial weather, Met Office Civil • HF radio communications outages Contingencies Advisors work in conjunction with MOSWOC to help increase the level of knowledge • Satellite damage among emergency responders. A pictorial summary of • Increased radiation threat at high altitude. space weather-related impacts is shown in Figure 18. Solar flares can cause high-frequency radio and GPS to An extensive introduction to the subject, including perform erratically, and extreme geomagnetic storms can frequently asked questions and the latest forecast, can put power grids at risk. Space weather forecasts are be found on the Met Office website at: therefore of crucial importance to those working in Civil https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/ Contingencies, as well as the Armed Forces, the electricity emergencies/space-weather industry, satellite operators and the aviation industry.

Figure 17 - An example of the solar imagery used in the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). Figure 18 - Impacts of Space Weather © L.J.Lanzerottie, Bell Laboratories, Lucent Technologies Inc. 5. CIVIL CONTINGENCIES ADVISORS

In response to the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, the 4. Provide guidance on the interpretation of Met Office Met Office established a team of Civil Contingencies services available to emergency responders by Advisors in 2005 to offer support to the resilience holding presentations, workshops and exercises. community. The following year, the team was expanded 5. Compile severe weather risk assessments, as used from six to 10. There are now a total of 15 advisors and in community risk registers (see Section 6). 3 senior advisors covering the UK, led by the Head of Civil Contingencies. The posts are centrally funded as 6. Provide information on the role of the Met Office part of the Met Office’s Public Weather Service during emergencies, and on its Severe Weather commitment, and so the services offered by the Warnings for use in local plans. Advisors are ‘free at the point of use’. The Advisors will respond to requests for assistance Within Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland the from Command and Control Centres or Science and advisors liaise both with the local/regional resilience Technical Advice Cells (STACs), and attend incident or groups and directly with the elected national executives. control centres if required. Given the distances involved, Those based in England deal mainly with their local there may well be a period of initial support from resilience fora. The geographical distribution of lead Hazard Centre staff via teleconference to cover the Advisors across the UK can be found in Section 8. time the advisor is in transit to the control centre. The role of an Advisor during an incident is to: The Advisors’ primary function is to serve as a regional/ national point of contact for the Met Office within their 1. Ensure the management team is aware of all the respective resilience communities. This involves meteorological factors which could have an impact engaging with, and integrating into, regional and local on the incident. emergency planning groups, so that emergency 2. Ensure the consistency of meteorological planners are fully aware of Met Office capabilities, from information, and also ensure that all responders which they can derive maximum benefit when dealing within the Command and Control Centre use this with incidents in which the weather plays a role. information. Among the principal tasks of the Advisors are i) real- 3. Interpret this information for the responders, where time response to weather-related emergencies; ii) input required to do so. to those emergency plans which are, in any way, weather sensitive; iii) involvement in exercises designed 4. Source other scientific advice available from the to test those plans; and iv) the promotion and Met Office, and act as a point of contact between demonstration of specific Met Office services. the Met Office and the responders. This frees up the responders’ resources and enables them to focus on The Advisors are available to the emergency planning incident management. community in order to: 5. Respond to weather-related media enquiries. 1. Discuss predicted or ongoing severe weather events to help emergency responders assess the risk in 6. Arrange for the supply of routine forecasts and their particular area and put preparations in place other information to aid in the recovery phase, if to mitigate the impacts. This includes raising required. awareness of all available meteorological 7. Assist in the audit trail by documenting information sources. meteorological requests and responses. 2. Participate in local severe weather-related tactical and strategic teleconferences. 3. Help in the preparation and participation of multi- agency exercises. These include severe weather exercises and any exercise where weather conditions have an influence on the management of the incident. Obvious examples are chemical, biological or radiological releases; but other events, such as large outdoor gatherings where crowd movements may be influenced by sudden changes in the weather, would also benefit from weather information. The Advisors are able to construct suitable scenarios or specialist products, such as simulated severe weather warnings, CHEMETs and PACRAMs (see Section 4), as injects to the exercise. 6. SEVERE WEATHER RISK ASSESSMENTS

Since 2005, the government has carried out a classified assessment of the risks facing the UK. This is the Likelihood score Descriptor Likelihood over the next five years National Risk Assessment, which is the basis for the public National Risk Register. The Met Office provides >0.0005% or .1 information to the Civil Contingencies Secretariat for 1 Negligible in 20,000 chance the National Risk Assessment on the likelihood scores for three severe weather risks: heatwaves, severe gales >0.05% or >1 and storms, low temperatures and heavy snow. The 2 Rare Met Office also serves as lead assessor of the risk from in 2,000 chance ‘space weather’. Also included in the National Risk Assessment are risks such as those linked to drought >0.5% or >1 3 Unlikely and coastal, river, and surface water flooding. in 200 chance The generic outcome descriptors for the three principal severe weather risks are listed below, together with the >5% or >1 4 Possible likelihood scoring scale (opposite). in 20 chance Category 1 responders at the local level across the UK >50% or >1 are required to carry out a risk assessment under the 5 Probable Civil Contingencies Act 2004, and to produce and in 2 chance maintain a public community risk register. Compiled by specially designated working groups within Local Resilience Forums/Strategic Coordination Groups, these registers are then passed on to the Forums/Groups themselves for approval and publication. The Advisors play an active role in these local risk assessment working groups, using their local knowledge and expertise to assess the likelihood of the severe weather risks occurring in that locality in the next five years. The Advisors also contribute to impact assessment discussions with emergency responders, in order to help make a final estimate of the risk posed by each of the severe weather hazards.

H18 - low temperatures/ H17 - Storm and gales heavy snow H48 - Heatwave

Storm force winds affecting most of Snow lying over most of the area for at Daily maximum temperatures the area for at least six hours. Most least one week. After an initial > 32 °C and minimum temperatures inland, lowland areas experience snowfall there is further snowfall on mean speeds in excess of 55 mph with and off for at least seven days. Most > 15 °C over most of the area for at gusts in excess of 85 mph. lowland areas experience some falls in least five consecutive days. excess of 10 cm, a depth of snow in excess of 30 cm, and a period of at least seven consecutive days with daily mean temperatures below –3 °C. 7. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT AND ADVICE

The Met Office has a wide range of professional and 7.1 Hazard Manager technological resources to aid the emergency services Funded by the Met Office’s Public Weather Service, and other Category 1 and 2 responders (as defined in the Hazard Manager is designed to aid incident management Civil Contingencies Act 2004) in the management of an teams in dealing with a variety of situations where the emergency. These resources can be called on for both weather plays a significant role. Such situations would severe weather events and incidents where the weather include major flooding, large fires, biological hazards, will have a significant impact. Responders can therefore chemical and radiological releases, and tidal surges. be sure of consistent and effective meteorological input to aid the management of the incident. It also enables responders to monitor severe weather developments to help pinpoint where, within a region, Hazard Centre forecasters can provide advice around the resources are more likely to be productively deployed. clock during severe weather or environmental incidents. The service aims to supplement the role of the Civil Should a major incident occur, the Civil Contingencies Contingency Advisors in providing consistent weather- Advisors may be called on to attend in person or via related information and interpretation to responders. teleconference strategic and tactical command meetings, the Cabinet Office Briefing Room (COBR) or the Scottish The service is available to all Category 1 and Category 2 Government Resilience Room (SGoRR). responders, on an organisational or individual basis. Registration for the service is achieved via the link: With these possibilities in mind, and with the need to ensure emergency responders are fully up to date with https://register.metoffice.gov.uk/register/ the latest weather-related information, the Met Office hazardmanager/government. developed a dedicated website aimed at providing a html?service=hazardmanager one-stop meteorological information source that is Figure 19 shows the welcome page and the varied choice geared towards managing all weather-related incidents. of functionality available to users. This web portal is known as Hazard Manager.

Figure 19 - Hazard Manager welcome page with the range of services listed down the left hand side. The information available to users comprises two 7.2 Specialised weather forecasts distinct types. First, the latest weather observations During the management of an incident (particularly and forecasts, automatically updated, including: during the emergency and initial recovery phases) there • Rainfall/snowfall radar imagery may be a requirement for the responding agencies to receive regular, and perhaps specialised, weather • Real-time rain gauge data forecasts from the Met Office. • Forecast precipitation type/intensity For example, regular rainfall forecasts were provided to • Wind observations emergency responders in the aftermath of the flooding in South West England during July 2007. In the wake of the • Forecast wind speed/direction Cumbrian floods in November 2009, a daily recovery • Lightning location forecast service was set up which ran for a week after • All current severe weather warnings. the flood waters had peaked. These forecasts were all provided as part of the Public Weather Service, so were Second, there are the more emergency-specific services, designated ‘free at the point of use’. such as the Flood Guidance Statement, FireMet, CHEMET and PACRAM. Note that some of the more specialised services such as FireMet are available only to approved users, for instance, Fire and Rescue services. When severe weather alone is the hazard, an ‘event’ may be activated within the ‘Events’ tab. Here, bespoke maps and graphical products relating to the event, such as forecast snow depth or maximum wind gusts, can be deposited. A ‘useful links’ tab provides connections to an ever-increasing range of weather-related sites. An additional tab takes the user to various product guides including those for CHEMET and the Flood Guidance Statement. An external link from the Met Office website takes the user to the Hazard Manager Help Centre, an alternative source of guides and training videos that explain in greater detail some of the products available. Figure 21 - Hazard Manager display of Severe weather warnings on 02 April 2018. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/ hazardmanager/help-centre Another example of regular forecasts being provided for Figure 20 shows a radar precipitation image for Scotland the management of an incident was when the container on the morning of 23 February 2017 when storm ‘Doris’ ship MSC Napoli was stricken off the south coast of was crossing the UK. Figure 21 depicts those severe England in January 2007. Site-specific forecasts of wind weather warnings in force on 02 April 2018. and wave conditions were supplied on a regular basis to help with the recovery operation. This type of forecast is provided as part of the Public Weather Service for the initial emergency phase, but once the incident moves on to the long-term recovery phase the costs for additional specialised forecasts must be met by the leading organisation.

Figure 20 - Hazard Manager rainfall radar image showing widespread rain (and snow) across Scotland during 23 February 2017. 7.3 Airborne support 7.4 Calling on Met Office resources for Command and Control Centres or Scientific and Technical The Met Office Civil Contingency Aircraft (MOCCA) Advice Cells (STAC) is specifically designed for measurement of gases and aerosols in the atmosphere as well as local meteorology When an incident arises in which a strategic or tactical level of (e.g. wind, temperature). Convened as a response to the command and/or STAC has been established, and the weather Icelandic volcanic eruption in 2010 it has a role to support is playing a direct or indirect role in the management of that investigations of volcanic ash around the UK and to assist in incident, the procedure for requesting Met Office assistance is other civil contingency events where aircraft measurements as follows: are required. 1. Strategic or Tactical Command contacts the Met Office The MOCCA — a twin-piston engine Cessna 421 — is available Hazard Centre on 01392 447947 stating the nature of the on 24-hour standby, and can operate between 500 ft and emergency and location. However, when the incident is 30,000 ft over land and ocean. Among its instrumentation is purely weather-related such as during flooding, severe a lidar that can remotely sense the altitude of particle plumes. gales or very heavy snowfall, those Civil Contingencies Data from the aircraft are sent via satellite link, in real-time Advisors within the areas affected will receive a direct directly to the Hazard Centre at the Met Office’s headquarters request from strategic or tactical command centres to in7.3 Exeter Airborne allowing support immediate updates on the event to be Measurementsattend meetings (FAAM). either inThe person aircraft or, more can usually,be used viato given to a forecaster. monitorteleconference. particulates (In Cumbria and pollutants the contact in the protocol atmosphere, involves The Met Office Civil Contingency Aircraft (MOCCA) is email notification of resilience partners via the National The Met Office also jointly owns, with the Natural as well as provide details on local meteorology (e.g. specifically designed for measurement of gases and Resilience Extranet of the incident and forthcoming Environment Research Council, a BAe146 research aircraft of winds, temperatures). aerosols in the atmosphere, as well as measurement of teleconference). the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), local meteorological conditions (e.g. wind, temperature). The BAe146 is a large four-engine jet aircraft capable of which can be used to monitor particulates and pollutants 2. The Hazard Centre can supply a general weather forecast inCommissioned the atmosphere, as as a responsewell as provide to the details Icelandic on local volcanic carryingas well fouras specialist tonnes servicesof scientific such aspayload CHEMET, and PACRAM of or meteorologyeruption of 2010, (e.g. winds, it has temperatures).a role in supporting investigations operatingNAME as down an initial to 100response, ft over with the typical sea and delivery up to times 35,000 of of volcanic ash around the UK and in assisting in other ft.between It was used10 and during 20 minutes the Buncefield for CHEMET Oil and Depot PACRAM, fire in and The BAe146 is a large four engine jet aircraft capable of civil contingencies for which aircraft measurements Decemberfrom 30 minutes 2005 and to one the hour Icelandic for NAME. volcano eruption carryingare required. four tonnes of scientific payload and capable of in 2010. operating down to 100 ft over the ocean and up to 35,000 ft. 3. In a protracted incident, Strategic or Tactical Command ItThe was MOCCA used during – a twin-piston the Buncefield engine Oil DepotCessna fire 421 in –December is on Themay FAAM also isrequest not on additional 24-hour standby,resources soto itsaid involvementthe in 200524-hour and standby,during the and Icelandic can operate volcano between eruption 500in 2010. ft and themanagement response to of a thatparticular incident, incident such as depends specialist on scientific its advice from the Met Office’s Atmospheric Dispersion The30,000 FAAM ft is overnot onland 24-hour and sea. standby Its instrumentation so its involvement includes in the availability and the configuration of onboard instruments Group (ADG), or even resources such as the MOCCA or responsea lidar, which to a particular can remotely incident sense depends the altitude on its availability of particle and at any given time. plumes. Data from the aircraft are sent in real time via FAAM research aircraft described previously. the configuration of onboard instrument at any given time. Tasking of the MOCCA and FAAM is handled through satellite link directly to the Hazard Centre at the Met 4. The Hazard Centre will contact the ADG, which is on call Tasking of the MOCCA and FAAM is handled through the the Hazard Centre as part of the Met Office’s support to Office’s headquarters in Exeter, enabling forecasters to around the clock, to discuss the incident and request. Hazard Centre as part of the Met Office’s support to incidents incidents where Gold/Strategic Commands have been receive immediate updates on an event. where Gold/Strategic Commands have been established. 5.established. ADG experts Following at the Met a Officerequest will for assess assistance, the incident the Met FollowingThe Met Officea request also for assistance,jointly owns, the Metwith Officethe Natural seeks to Officeand decide seeks on to the recover most appropriate the costs solutionassociated for effective with the recoverEnvironment the costs Research associated Council, with the a BAe146deployment research of either deploymentmanagement of ofeither the incident. aircraft through the lead aircraft through the lead government authority for the aircraft of the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric 6.government Should this authoritysolution require for the significant incident. resources such incident. as airborne support, contact will be made with the Civil Contingencies Secretariat via its 24-hour emergency centre to request these resources or mobilise resources outside Met Office control, such as military aircraft. 7. If deemed appropriate, the Hazard Centre will contact the Met Office’s 24-hour Incident Management Team and/ or Press Office to discuss the incident and any further resources required to manage the situation from a Met Office perspective.

FigureFigure 24. 22 The - The FAAM FAAM BAe146 BAe146 aircraft pictured aircraft in in flight. action over the UK. 7.4 Calling on Met Office resources for Command and Control Centres or Science and Technical Advice Cells When an incident arises in which a strategic or tactical level of command and/or a Science and Technical Advice Cell (STAC) has been established, and the weather plays a role in the management of that incident, the procedure for requesting Met Office assistance is as follows: 1. Strategic or Tactical Command contacts the Met Office Hazard Centre on 01392 447947 with a statement of the nature of the emergency and its location. However, when the incident is purely weather-related, such as with flooding, severe gales or very heavy snowfall, those Civil Contingencies Advisors within the affected areas will receive a direct request from strategic or tactical command centres to attend meetings either in person or, more usually, via teleconference. 2. The Hazard Centre can supply a general weather forecast as well as specialist services such as CHEMET, PACRAM or NAME as an initial response, with typical delivery times of between 10 and 20 minutes for CHEMET and PACRAM, and from 30 minutes to one hour for NAME. 3. In a protracted incident, Strategic or Tactical Command may also request additional resources to aid the management of that incident, such as specialist scientific advice from the Met Office’s Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality Group (ADAQ), or even resources such as the MOCCA or FAAM research aircraft described previously. 4. The Hazard Centre will contact the ADAQ, which is on call around the clock, to discuss the incident and the request. 5. ADAQ experts at the Met Office will assess the incident in order to find the best solution for its effective management. 6. Should this solution require significant resources, such as airborne support, contact will be made with the Civil Contingencies Secretariat, via its 24-hour emergency centre, to request these resources or to mobilise resources outside Met Office control, such as military aircraft. 7. If deemed appropriate, the Hazard Centre will contact the Met Office’s 24-hour Incident Management Team and/or Press Office to discuss the incident and any need for further resources that may be required to manage the situation, as judged from a Met Office perspective. 8. CONTACT DETAILS

For advice during severe weather (24 hours): • In England and Wales - call EMARC/Hazard Centre on 01392 886095 • In Scotland and Northern Ireland - call Met Office, Aberdeen on 01224 629801 For advice during environmental emergencies e.g. Chemical, Biological, Radiological or Nuclear (24 hours): • Anywhere in the UK - call EMARC/Hazard Centre on 01392 447947 Met Office Civil Contingencies Advisors are available in the areas shown below to discuss weather-related events, attend incident control rooms where possible, either in person or remotely, and help prepare and take part in exercises. (See Section 5 for further details).

Figure 23 - Areas of responsibility for the Civil Contingencies Advisor network, as of May 2018. 9. LIST OF ACRONYMS

ADAQ MSC Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality Group Mediterranean Shipping Company

BGS NAME British Geological Survey Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment

BEIS NOAA Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

CHEMET NSWWS CHEmical METeorology National Severe Weather Warning Service

PACRAM COBR Cabinet Office Briefing Room Procedures And Communications following Release of Radioactive Material

DEFRA PWS Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Public Weather Service

DH PWSCG Department of Health Public Weather Service Customer Group

EMARC RIMNET Environment Monitoring and Response Centre Radioactive Incident Monitoring NETwork

FAAM SEPA Facility for Airborne Meteorological Measurements Scottish Environment Protection Agency

FFC SFFS Flood Forecasting Centre Scottish Flood Forecasting Service

FGS SFGS Flood Guidance Statement Scottish Flood Guidance Statement

GLONASS SGoRR GLObal NAvigation Satellite System Scottish Government Resilience Room

GPS SMS Global Positioning System Short Message Service

ICAO STAC International Civil Aviation Organisation Science and Technical Advice Cell

LRF SWPC Local Resilience Forum Space Weather Prediction Centre

MCA TCC Maritime and Coastguard Agency Technical Coordination Centre

MOCCA VAAC Met Office Civil Contingencies Aircraft Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre

MOSWOC Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

10. CONVERSION TABLES

Speed

Miles per hour 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Kilometres per hour 16 32 48 64 81 97 113129 145161

Metres per second 5913 18 23 27 31 36 40 45

Knots917 26 35 44 52 61 70 78 87

Beaufort Force 0123456

Knots< 11-3 4-67-1011-16 17-2122-27

Beaufort Force 789101112

Knots28-33 34-4041-47 48-5556-63 64 or more

1 knot = 0.515 metres per second = 1.85 kilometres per hour 1 mph = 0.87 knots = 1.61 kilometres per hour

Wind direction

Compass pointNNNE NE ENEE ESESESSE

Degress022.5 45 67.5 90 112.5135 157. 5

Compass pointSSSWSWWSW WWNW NW NNW

Degress180 202.5225 247. 5270 292.5315 337. 5

Wind direction is always given as the direction the wind is blowing FROM.

Temperature

°C –20–15 –10–50510152025303540

°F –4 514233241505968778695104 APPENDIX 1

Severe Weather Impact Tables The following tables provide examples of the level of disruption that might be experienced at each of the impact levels (high, medium, low) and for each weather element (rain, snow, etc.). Note that weather assessed as having a ‘very low’ impact may still have some minor impacts.

VERY LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH

Generic impact On the whole, day to day Some short lived disruption Injuries with danger to life. Danger to life. levels of ALL activities not affected but to day to day routines in some localised, small scale affected areas. Disruption to day to day Prolonged disruption SEVERE WEATHER impacts occur. routines and activities. to day to day routines for emergency Incidents dealt with under and activities. Short-term strain on responder A few transport ‘business as usual’ response routes affected. by emergency services. emergency responder Prolonged strain organisations organisations. on emergency Some transport routes and responders organisations. travel services affected. Transport routes and travel Some journeys require services affected. Longer Transport routes and travel longer travel times. journey times expected. services affected for a Some vehicles and prolonged period. Long passengers stranded. travel delays. Vehicles and passengers stranded for Disruption to some utilities long periods. and services. Disruption to utilities Damage to buildings and services for a and property. prolonged period. Extensive damage to buildings and property.

Specific impact Loose debris blown around. Some transport routes and Injuries and danger to life Widespread danger to life levels associated travel services affected. from flying debris. from flying debris. A few transport routes Some journeys require with WIND affected by difficult longer travel times. Some Some structural damage, Widespread structural driving conditions. disruption to road, rail, air such as slates dislodged damage e.g. roofs blown off, and ferry transport. from roofs. mobile homes overturned, Instances of spray and large power lines brought down. waves affecting coastal Localised problems for Transport routes and travel routes, sea fronts and high-sided vehicles on services affected. Longer Transport routes and travel coastal communities. prone routes e.g. due to journey times expected. services affected for a cross winds on exposed Disruption to road, rail, air prolonged period. Long high level roads. and/or ferry transport. travel delays. Localised power Closure of some susceptible Closure of main bridges, interruptions. and key routes (e.g. some road and rail networks in vulnerable bridges). many areas, and significant Coastal routes, sea fronts disruption to air and and coastal communities Interruptions to power ferry transport. affected by spray and/or and/or other utilities large waves. and services. Widespread and prolonged disruption to power, and/or Casualties and danger to other utilities and services. life from large waves/beach material being thrown onto Danger to life from large coastal routes, sea fronts waves/beach material and coastal communities. being thrown onto coastal route, sea fronts and coastal communities. VERY LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH

Specific impact Localised flooding of Localised flooding of Flooding of homes Widespread flooding of levels associated low-lying land and homes and businesses and and businesses. homes and businesses. susceptible roads. susceptible roads with RAIN Danger to life from fast Danger to life from fast A few transport Some transport routes and flowing/deep water. flowing/deep water. routes affected. travel services affected. Some journeys require Damage to Extensive damage to Road conditions affected longer travel times. buildings/structures. and/or collapse of with localised spray and buildings/structures. some standing water. Road conditions affected by Transport routes and travel spray and standing water. services affected. Longer Transport routes and travel journey times expected. services disrupted for a Localised and short Some road closures. prolonged period. Long term disruption to utilities travel delays. and services Difficult road conditions due to spray and Widespread road closures. standing water. Dangerous driving Interruption to utilities conditions due to spray and services. and standing water. Some communities Prolonged disruption to or temporarily inaccessible loss of utilities and services. due to flooded access routes. Communities become cut off for a prolonged period, perhaps several days, due to flooded access routes.

Specific impact A few transport Some transport routes and Transport routes and travel Transport routes and travel levels associated routes affected. travel services affected. services affected. Longer services affected for a Some journeys require journey times expected. prolonged period. Long with SNOW longer travel times. travel delays. Some stranded vehicles and passengers, with disruption Large numbers of stranded to rail, road and air services. vehicles and passengers with widespread disruption Interruptions to power to rail, road and air services. and/or other utilities and services. Widespread and prolonged interruptions to power Some rural communities and/or other utilities and temporarily inaccessible services. due to deep snow or snow drifts. Rural communities cut off for a prolonged period, perhaps several days, due to deep snow or snow drifts. VERY LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH

Specific impact levels A few transport routes Some injuries from slips Casualties with risk to life. Widespread risk to life. associated with ICE. affected by ice on and falls. Injuries from slips and falls Casualties and injuries from some untreated roads, slips and falls pavements and cycle paths. Some transport routes and Transport routes and travel services affected travel services affected Transport routes and travel Limited travel disruption with some ice on untreated by widespread black ice. services affected by sudden with difficult conditions roads, pavements and cycle Some road closures and formation of black ice mostly confined to a few paths, but road networks some only passable with across whole communities prone routes. generally open. Some road care. Untreated pavements with roads pavements traffic collisions. and cycle paths impassable. and cycle paths becoming Some travel disruption with instantly impassable. longer journey times and Widespread disruption road traffic collisions. to road, rail and air transport with frequent road traffic collisions. Widespread interruptions to power due to power line icing, leading to impacts on telecommunications.

Specific impact levels Limited travel disruption Difficult driving conditions Difficult driving conditions N/A associated with FOG. with difficult travel with slower journey times. with long journey times. conditions mostly confined to a few prone routes. Some road traffic collisions Road traffic collisions A few road traffic collisions. Passengers delayed Passengers delayed and/or with short-term closure stranded at airports and/or of airports. ferry terminals. VERY LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH

Specific impact levels A few places will have Some flooding of homes, Flooding of homes and Widespread flooding associated with flooding, usually lasting an businesses and susceptible businesses. affecting homes and hour to a few hours at most. roads lasting several hours businesses. THUNDERSTORMS in places. Danger to life due to A few local transport routes sudden deep/fast flowing Danger to life due to may be affected with Some damage to buildings/ water. sudden fast flowing/deep difficult driving conditions structures from flooding water. and/or lightning. Damage to buildings/ Very short-term disruption structures from flooding Injuries from hail. to power and/or other Some transport routes and and/or lightning, hail, strong utilities and services in a travel services affected. winds Casualties and danger to few places. Some journeys require life from lightning strikes. longer travel times. Transport routes and travel services affected quickly Extensive damage to Road conditions affected by by flooding. Longer journey buildings/ structures from spray and standing water times and cancellations. flooding and/or lightning, and/or hail. Difficult road conditions hail, strong winds due to spray, standing Short-term disruption to Transport routes and water and/or hail, sudden travel services affected by power and/or other utilities gusty winds. and services in some flooding for a prolonged places. Interruption to power period with long travel and/or other utilities and delays and rapidly services. changing/deteriorating conditions. Some communities temporarily inaccessible Dangerous driving due to flooded access conditions due to spray, routes. standing water and/or hail, sudden gusty winds. Prolonged disruption to or loss of power and/or other utilities and services Communities become cut off for a prolonged period, perhaps several days, due to flooded access routes or damage to road infrastructure.

VERY LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH

Specific impact levels Disruption to power and/or Some disruption to power Injuries with danger to life Injuries with danger to life associated with other utilities and services and/or other utilities and due to lightning. due to frequent lightning in a few places. services. strikes. LIGHTNING (where Interruptions to power no rain impacts are Damage to buildings/ Some damage to buildings/ and/or other utilities and Prolonged disruption to or forecast) structures from lightning structures. services. loss of power and/or other strikes in a few places. utilities and services over Damage to buildings/ a widespread area. structures from lightning strikes. Extensive damage to buildings/ structures from lightning strikes over a widespread area Met Office Tel: 0870 0900 0100 Produced by the Met Office. FitzRoy Road, Exeter Fax: 0870 0900 5050 Met Office and the Met Office Devon, EX1 3PB [email protected] logo are registered trademarks. United Kingdom www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown copyright 2018, Met Office 00637