Transition, Technology, Trade, and Investment
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THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY: TRANSITION, TECHNOLOGY, TRADE, AND INVESTMENT SUPPORTED BY HOSTED BY GOVERNMENT OF INDIA CO-HOSTED BY CHINA & KOREA AN UNPARALLELED EXPERIENCE Range. Speed. Comfort. The G650ER™ is truly in a class all its own. Our proud commitment to service takes you with confidence from Paris to New York* and everywhere else your spirit beckons. This is Gulfstream. The world’s finest aviation experience. GULFSTREAM.COM For your personal consultation, visit gulfstream.com/contacts. * Theoretical range with eight passenger s, four crew and NBA A IFR fuel reser ves . Actual per formance will be affected by ATC routing, operating speed, weather, outfitting options and other factors. THE GLOBAL ENERGY DIALOGUE Published by FIRST, Victory House, 99-101 Regent Street, London W1B 4EZ, UK Tel: +44 (20) 7440 3500 • Fax: +44 (20) 7440 3545 Email: [email protected] Chairman and Founder Rupert Goodman dl, Chairman, Advisory Council Rt Hon Lord Hurd of Westwell ch cbe pc, International Publisher Declan Hartnett, VP, Strategic Partnerships Emmanuel Artuso-Barrell, Regional Marketing Johanna Zuleta, President, International Affairs Lord Cormack dl fsa, Non-Executive Directors Timothy Bunting, Hon Alexander Hambro, Design and Production Lucy Evans and Mark Critchell, Marketing Administrator Chris Cammack, Research and Communications Vanesha Singh, Editorial Consultant Jonathan Gregson, Secretariat Gil Pearson, Senior Staff Writer Nicholas Lyne, Special Advisor, China Lord Powell of Bayswater kcmg, Special Advisor, Russia Sir Andrew Wood gcmg, Special Advisor, Latin America Jacques Arnold, Special Advisor, Global Issues Professor Victor Bulmer-Thomas cmg obe H.E. Sun Xiansheng, IEF Secretary General, Arianna Khan, Executive Assistant, Lina Murad, Government and International Relations Officer www.firstmagazine.com The official publication of IEF16, published by FIRST/World Petroleum in cooperation with the IEF, is composed of the opinions and ideas of leading business and political figures. All information in this publication is verified to the best of the author’s and publisher’s ability, but no responsibility can be accepted by the publishers or the IEF for loss arising from decisions based on this material. Where opinion is expressed, it is that of the authors. The views expressed and the data contained in this publication are not necessarily those held or agreed by FIRST/World Petroleum or the IEF. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is strictly prohibited. Colour transparencies or manuscripts submitted to the magazine are sent at owners’ risk; neither the company nor its agents accept any liability for loss or damage. Copyright © 2018, FIRST/World Petroleum. All rights to the publication and content are vested with the publisher, FIRST Magazine Limited. FIRST/World Petroleum gratefully acknowledges the co-operation and assistance of H.E. Sun Xiansheng, IEF Secretary General, Arianna Khan, Executive Assistant, Lina Murad, Government and International Relations Officer, and the Government of India 16TH INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM 1 THE GLOBAL ENERGY DIALOGUE 2 16TH INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM THE GLOBAL ENERGY DIALOGUE CONTENTS GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION: AN ENHANCED “NEW ENERGY REALISM” AND AMERICA’S ROLE FOR THE DIALOGUE 4 GROWING ENERGY ABUNDANCE 23 By H.E. Sun Xiansheng, By H.E. Rick Perry, Secretary General, International Energy Forum (IEF) Secretary of Energy, United States of America INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM 6 ENERGY SECURITY IN APEC 24 By H.E. Dharmendra Pradhan, By James Kendell, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Republic of India Vice-president, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) WORK TOGETHER TO BUILD A COMMUNITY OF A SHARED ENSURING INVESTOR CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FUTURE FOR MANKIND 8 ENERGY TRANSITION 26 By Nuer Baikeli, By Urban Rusnák, Vice-Chair of the National Development and Reform Commission, Secretary General, Energy Charter Secretariat Administrator of the NEA, People’s Republic of China DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST ASIA SUMMIT REGION 27 PREPARING BAHRAIN FOR AN LNG FUTURE 9 By Hidetoshi Nishimura, By H.E. Shaikh Mohammed bin Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, President, Economic Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) Minister of Oil, Kingdom of Bahrain NATURAL GAS: THE FUEL OF CHOICE TO PROVIDE ENERGY CANADA AND THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY 12 SECURITY IN THE ERA OF ENERGY TRANSITION 28 By The Honourable Jim Carr, Minister of Natural Resources, Canada By H.E. Yury Sentyurin, Secretary General, Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY 13 By H.E. Carlos E. Pérez, FUTURE OF ENERGY SECURITY: TRANSITION, Minister of Hydrocarbons, Republic of Ecuador TECHNOLOGY, TRADE AND INVESTMENT 29 By H.E. Fatih Birol, THE CHALLENGE OF MARKET STABILITY AND ENERGY SECURITY 14 Executive Director, International Energy Agency (IEA) By H.E. Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, LNG – ENHANCING GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY 30 Minister of Petroleum, Islamic Republic of Iran By Menelaos Ydreos, GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS AND THE GROWTH OF THE Executive Director of Public Affairs, International Gas Union (IGU) ECONOMY IN IRAQ 15 THE NEED FOR INVESTMENT TO By H.E. Jabbar Ali Hussein Al-Luiebi, Minister of Oil, Republic of Iraq MEET GROWING ENERGY DEMAND 33 By H.E. Abbas Ali Al-Naqi, ENERGY DIALOGUE – BECAUSE IT MATTERS 16 Secretary General, Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting By H.E. Terje Søviknes, Countries (OAPEC) Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Kingdom of Norway ENERGY, THE SDGS AND THE NEXUS: KEY ENERGY SECTORAL POLICIES IN THE PHILIPPINES 17 OFID RECORDS 34 By H.E. Mr Alfonso Cusi, By H.E. Suleiman Jasir Al-Herbish, Secretary of Energy, Republic of the Philippines Director General, The OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) THE ROLE OF GLOBAL ENERGY DIALOG IN CHANGING ENERGY MARKETS 18 THE IMPORTANCE OF RELEVANT, CONSISTENT, RELIABLE AND COMPARABLE ENERGY DATA 36 By Michal Kurtyka, Undersecretary of State, Ministry of Energy, Republic of Poland By Alfonso Blaco, Executive Secretary, The Latin American Energy Organisation GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY THROUGH TO 2040 – (OLADE) PROSPECTS & CONSEQUENCES 19 By H.E. Mohammad Saleh Al Sada, DIALOGUE IS MAKING A DIFFERENCE 37 Minister of Energy & Industry, State of Qatar By H.E. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, Secretary General, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL Countries (OPEC) ENERGY PARADIGM – RUSSIA 20 By H.E. Alexander Novak, Minister of Energy, Russian Federation SCARY NUMBERS 38 By Pierce Riemer, THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY: Director General, World Petroleum Council (WPC) A SHARED COMMITMENT 22 By H.E. Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, DISRUPTION AND NEW INNOVATION TECHNOLOGIES 40 Minister of Energy & Industry, United Arab Emirates , By H.E. Christoph Frei, President of the OPEC Conference 2018 Secretary General, World Energy Council (WEC) 16TH INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM 3 THE GLOBAL ENERGY DIALOGUE GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION: AN ENHANCED ROLE FOR THE DIALOGUE By H.E. Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General, International Energy Forum (IEF) lobal energy security is a phrase we hear often, but what do we mean by it and why is it more relevant now than ever? In the past, the meaning centered around access to Genergy and fossil fuels. Today, energy security is more about adaptation. It is no secret that we currently find ourselves at a critical energy juncture. From challenging oil prices to the rise of renewable technology, global energy security has taken on a new meaning. Those states that adapt and transition to new energy realities are the ones most likely to succeed in the new energy era. Such adaptation can only occur through sustained global energy dialogue. The need for this dialogue underscores the importance of the 16th International Energy Forum Ministerial (IEF16) that India will host under the theme “The Future of Global Energy Security: Transition, Technology, Trade and Investment,” in New Delhi on 10-12 April 2018. Electric armoured police bus and 8-seater electric car Hainan, China. IEF16 will focus on how global shifts, energy transition policies and new technologies can influence landscape together. Such dialogue also helps secure market stability and future investment in the energy an energy future that remains affordable, productive, sector. Dialogue on how energy security has evolved sustainable and fair to all. will help producers and consumers navigate the energy The new energy realities Change and dynamism are at the heart of global energy trends, and the pace of change has become much more Growth of renewable energy power is estimated to be twice the pronounced in the last decade. Energy disruption, aggregated growth of gas and coal over the next five years geopolitical change and new market realities are transforming energy systems and the economics of energy on a global scale. Structural sectoral changes are shifting the energy mix towards lower carbon resources, driven by advancements in technology and accompanied by energy- saving measures and policies. An oversupplied oil market combined with burgeoning renewable technology and greater awareness of climate change are factors that continue to influence the global energy landscape. Energy transition and energy efficiency are not new phenomena, but rather, a culmination of years of progress in renewable technology that has made alternatives to fossil fuels a viable option. The exponential growth of renewables is a reality. According to the International Energy Agency, global renewable