XVIII

PREDICTING, PROPHECYING, DIVINING AND FORETELLING FROM NOSTRADAMUS TO HUME*

In the two hundred years between the writings of Nostradamus and Hume a radical transformation took place in claims about what knowl• edge of the future human beings could obtain. At the beginning (and end of the period) the terms "to predict", "to foretell", "to prophe- cise", "to divine", were interchangeable. According to the Oxford English Dictionary in the late sixteenth century "to predict" meant "to foretell" or "to prophecise"; "to divine" meant "to prophecy", "to foretell" or "to predict"; "to foretell" meant "to predict" or "to prophecy". Only "to prophecise" had an additional meaning involv• ing employing the function or faculty of a prophet making divinely inspired utterances or discourses. In Samuel Johnson's Dictionary of 1756, 'Ho prophecy" is "to predict"; "to foretell", "to foreshow" is "to prophecy or to utter predictions", and "to predict" is "to foretell and to foreshow". These terms were synonymous except that "prophecise" also had a meaning connected with its religious usage. By now, as we all know, scientists predict, as do television weathermen; rather dubious people prophecise, divine or foretell. The history of the change of meaning involved here is, I believe, rather instructive. We will see that up until Hume all these terms could be used interchangeably. However, Hume's critique of prophecy as a form of miracle, and his denial that people could know the future, involved rejecting a whole framework in which knowledge of the future was a guiding light for human beings in terms of their destiny in a religious drama. I shall trace this development and examine Hume's views in the light of the theories of prophetic and scientific knowledge of the future being advanced at his time. I have chosen to begin the story with Nostradamus because he has played an extraordinary role in people's attempts to know the future, unequalled by anyone outside of the Biblical prophets. The Oxford English Dictionary indicates that the first English usage of the

* I should like to thank James E. Force for his helpful discussions and comments on this paper. 286 PROGNOSTICS FROM NOSTRADAMUS TO HUME word "predict" is from 1561 in a statement about Nostradamus. His prophetic verses have been printed and reprinted, interpreted and reinterpreted over and over again. If one looks at the number of French editions that have appeared, it becomes apparent that with each major new historical event a new edition is put out showing that Nostradamus had predicted it.1 A new edition, using computer analy• ses, appeared in France in December 1980. It contained the news that a quatrain of Nostradamus predicted that there would be an attempt to assassinate the Pope. Another quatrain said next year would be the year of the rose. The rose is the symbol of the French Socialist Party. When John Paul II was shot, and when Mitterand and his party won the French elections, this new edition of Nostradamus became a best• seller, selling well over one hundred thousand copies.2 When I was in Paris in the summer of 1981, learned articles in the newspapers were discussing whether it was possible that Nostradamus, who died in 1566, could have actually predicted events taking place over four centuries later. So Nostradamus, unlike a host of long forgotten political forecast• ers, is still of current interest in some circles. He is also of interest because he made two public efforts to explain how he was able to know the future, one in a letter to his son, and another in a letter to King Henri II. His explanation contains some of the features we will find in Sir Isaac Newton's theory of prophecy, as well as some that are offered by other theorists of future knowledge. Michael Nostradamus was born in 1503 in southern France. He was the grandson of two prominent rabbis, who raised him. They had quietly converted to Christianity shortly before his birth, when the local ruler offered them a choice of banishment, or becoming Christian noblemen.3 Their grandson was sent to the University of Montpel• lier to study medicine, then went to Toulouse and Bordeaux. Next he studied astrology, and became a court doctor, astrologer and ad• viser. He predicted in detail the strange accidental deaths of Kings Henri II and François II, who died in quick succession, in the exact

1 See the large number of editions listed in the Catalogue of the Bibliothèque Nationale. This new edition was done by Jean Charles de Fontbrune, who worked on his interpretation for seventeen years. He claimed to find many predictions about recent and near future events, including the fall of the Shah of Iran, the wars in the Middle East, etc. 3 See the biographical account in M. -C. Touchard, Nostradamus, (Paris, 1972), pp. 31-34; "Biography of Nostradamus" in E. Leoni Nostradamus: Life and Lit• erature (New York, 1965), pp. 15fF; and the article, "Nostredame, Michel de", in Michaud, Biographie Universeile.