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H1 2021 Kampala Market Performance Review

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H1 2021 Kampala Market Performance Review 1 2 3 Economic Overview Real Estate Overview Outlook H1 2021 Kampala Market Performance Review July 2021 knightfrank.ug/research Lugogo One: Modern Prime Condoinium Office Space Available for Sale and Rent. Introduction Key Insights The economy in general and the real estate Figure 1: GDP Contribution by Sector sector specifically, remained subdued over the 70,000 7.0% past one and a half years due to the lockdown 60,000 6.0% 50,000 5.0% Annual Headline Inflation rose to 2% in June 2021 restrictions that affected different sectors of 40,000 4.0% the economy. In the previous property market 30,000 3.0% Bank of Uganda reduced the Central Bank Rate to 6.5% in June 2021 report (H2-2020), the outlook for 2021 pointed Billion Shillings 20,000 2.0% % Contribution to GDP remaining below expected levels, as 10,000 1.0% The prime office market registered a 3% y-o-y drop in occupancy 0 0.0% per the Bank of Uganda State of the Economy 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Report for December 2020, coupled with Increase in demand for showroom space within the city center Year continued subdued performance of the real Agriculture, forestry and fishing Industry estate sector, with investors adopting a wait and Prime residential rents remained relatively stable Services Taxes on Products see approach to the outcome of the February Constant Price growth rates (%) Metroplex Mall’s phased opening commenced 2021 general election. Hope for improvement in performance was Source: UBOS Lugogo House. Space available to let. hinged on several factors among which included; vaccine acquisition and rollout, The services sector accounted for the highest sites. This provides hope for a quicker return to monetary and fiscal policy stimuli, relaxation contribution to GDP at 41.5% despite its normalcy, although the failure of many African of curfew and other restrictions, and increase in declining share contribution when compared to governments, Uganda inclusive to secure the return of expatriate numbers. the 42.8% recorded in financial year 2019/2020. required doses due to global shortages, coupled ECONOMIC OVERVIEW The Industrial sector contributed 27.4%, the with the mutation of the virus into other The debate as to whether 2021 would be a Agricultural sector contributed 23.7% while the variants such as the Delta and Delta plus which year of recovery from the total disruption and taxes on products contributed 7.3%. are resistant to some vaccines has presented destabilization faced in 2020 has been put to major challenges to this end. sleep with the current lock down which has Table 1: Trends which the Knight Frank H2 2020 report highlighted for H1 2021. As of 30th June 2021, the country had recorded dampened any hope of recovery and stifled the COVID-19 82,082 cases, 1,111 deaths and 861,645 people Outlook Comment little momentum that had been gained. had been vaccinated. Approximately 41% of Subdued performance of the office leasing market, attributed Q1 2021 started off at a rather slow pace, with a reduction in the number of the total cases and 66% of total deaths were In May 2021, the economy was hit by a to the uncertainties that surrounded the general elections and inquiries and interest in occupier services. This was to be expected given General Economic recorded in June 2021. impact of the lockdown in 2020 that most businesses were more focussed on stabilising cash flows than second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The rolling out expansion plans. Performance Ministry of Health (MOH) recorded a surge in the number of COVID-19 cases, reporting a Continued emphasis on health and safety especially in the Throughout the prime office and retail asset classes, OH&S protocols daily average of 1,114 cases in June 2021. This office and retail asset classes. became a heightened priority for most landlords and occupiers alike. Preliminary annual GDP statistics released Some of these included, safety signage, hand sanitisers, temperature by UBOS in May 2021 indicated that the necessitated various interventions by the guns, increased and improved cleaning frequencies and masking, which performance of the general economy was on government to curb the spread of the virus underpinned office re-occupancy protocols in 2021. a slow but positive trajectory as compared to which included initial closure of schools and earlier projections. GDP had grown by 3.3% in ban on inter-district movements for a period of As of 30th June 2021, the Technology to continue playing a vital role as a means to With the office as a focal point, key in collaboration, training and cohesion FY 2020/2021 as compared to earlier projections 42 days effective 7th June 2021. However, due facilitate workflows, and reduce physical contact. of teams, technology was a great facilitator of workflow processes in H1 country had recorded of 3.1%. This was attributed to improvement to the persistent increase in daily new cases, 2020, through virtual communication platforms like zoom, teams, google 82,082 cases, 1,111 deaths in general economic activity and aggregate the government reinstated a second national meet, etc. demand as a result of the ease of restrictions lockdown for a duration of 42 days from 19th and 861,645 people had imposed in March 2020 due to the pandemic. June 2021 to limit mobility and control the Some big corporate organisations have taken the decision to permanently been vaccinated spread of the virus. Other lockdown measures reduce the headcount in office at any one time for the foreseeable future. instituted included closure of schools and Landlords to be less accommodating of any more requests for Landlords continued to face requests for rent reductions and delay in institutions of higher learning, restrictions on further rebates. escalations from prospective and existing tenants. These however did not The economy in general public gatherings, sports activities, funerals, materialise for many considering that several landlords had already offered remains subdued due to weddings, a ban on public and private discounts to their tenants during and after the March 2020 lockdown. We transportation, and suspension of weekly non- are still seeing a continued reluctance from landlords to these demands, the lockdown restrictions food markets. It is yet to be seen how effective current lockdown notwithstanding. Instead, negotiated rent payment plans that affected different the measures will be. are becoming the compromised position for both parties. sectors of the economy. Working from home and in shifts to continue to complement As employers and organisations worked to establish and refine workplace The surging number of COVID-19 cases resulted the office, as opposed to taking a binary decision on the strategies that favoured their employee’s welfare, working from home and in increased turnup for Covid-19 vaccinations matter. in shifts continued to complement working from the office in H1 2021. by the population at the different vaccination Inflation forms of debt restructuring covered in existing Regulations; postponement of prepayment of arrears as a condition for restructuring a credit Figure 2: Uganda Covid-19 Cases Figure 5: Exchange Rates The annual headline inflation for the year facility for 12 months with effect from April 01, 3800 2 ended June 2021 increased to 2% as compared 2020. 2000 3750 1 to the 1.9% recorded for the year ended May 3700 0 1800 -1 2021. The rise was attributed to an increase 3650 1600 -2 Exchange Rates 3600 % in the annual food and other nonalcoholic -3 1400 3550 -4 beverages inflation to -1.6% from -3.5% recorded Period Average 3500 1200 The Uganda Shilling appreciated by 0.35% in -5 in May 2020, coupled with an increase in annual 3450 -6 June 2021 against the USD to an average of 3540 1000 inflation for, ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas 3400 -7 800 as compared to 3553 recorded in May 2021. On and Other Fuels’. Jul-20 Jan-21 an annual basis, the Uganda shilling recorded Jun-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Number of covid Cases 600 Annual core inflation for the year ended June an average appreciation of 3.1% in H1-2021. This Period 400 2021 decreased to 2.7% from 3.1% recorded for was attributed to increased foreign exchange 200 the year ended May 2021, majorly driven by a Period Average Annual appreciation/depreciation rate inflows from offshore investments, the exports 0 reduction in annual service inflation which Monthly appreciation/depreciation rate sector, and non-financial institutions amidst 01/03/2021 01/04/2021 01/05/2021 01/06/2021 decreased to 5.3% for the year ended June 2021 demand from oil, manufacturing and telecom Period Source: Knight Frank Source: Ministry of Health from 6.7% recorded in the year ended May 2021. sectors. Money Market Spotlight on regulatory challenges, by providing secure Different businesses and corporate colocation space of up to 400 racks that will Figure 3: Annual Inflation Developments The increasing COVID-19 induced uncertainties Emerging Markets: organisations have been known to have house servers, networking devices and cables which are likely to slow economic recovery Data Centers individual servers (on site datacenters) where while providing 1.5MW of IT power to ensure 4.5 113.5 prompted Bank of Uganda to reduce the central they store, process and share their company the equipment housed within it operate 4.0 113.0 bank rate by 50 basis points from 7% reported information. These have proved to be quite optimally. 3.5 112.5 3.0 since June 2020, to a record low of 6.5% for The technology sector has experienced expensive in terms of set up and maintenance 112.0 2.5 June 2021.
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